李婷 棕榈油月报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 多重因素作用 棕榈油或延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国关税政策冲击市场后，主要经济体贸易谈判给市场释 放积极信号，美国经济韧性或仍在，美股持续走强，5月 非农数据超预期，降息时点或退后，特朗普施压美联储降 息，美元指数低位震荡运行，OPEC+预期增产的长期供应 压力在，油价或震荡运行。5月马棕油产量和库存预计增 加， ...

Core Insights - The Malaysian palm oil market is under pressure ahead of the MPOB report, raising concerns about whether Indian demand can offset inventory pressures [1] Group 1 - The Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to open lower on Friday morning [1] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of Indian demand on the overall inventory situation [1]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-06-03投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前 马棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货7950，基差312，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：5月23日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲 软。国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美关系恶化关税 问题影响市 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - The USDA report this month is bullish, boosting the soybean complex. The extension of the US 45Z clean - fuel tax credit policy benefits the US soybean oil, driving up the prices of the whole oil sector. However, the MPOB report shows that the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April exceeded expectations, with the production increasing by 21.52% month - on - month, exports increasing by 9.62% month - on - month, and inventory increasing by 19.37% month - on - month. The palm oil market is under pressure due to the entry into the production - increasing season [2]. - For protein meals, the weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable for sowing. The USDA report shows that US soybean production and ending stocks are lower than expected, and the improvement in Sino - US relations may increase US soybean exports. In China, the resumption of oil - mill operations has alleviated the supply shortage, and the sufficient supply of raw soybeans and soybean meal in the second quarter will put pressure on prices [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7914, 8184, and 9438 respectively, with daily increases of 122, 230, and 64, and daily increase rates of 1.57%, 2.89%, and - 3.15% respectively. For protein meals, the previous day's closing price of soybean meal was 2914, up 28 (0.97%), and that of rapeseed meal was 2416, up 6 (0.25%). The previous day's closing price of peanuts was 8844, up 26 (0.29%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are 54, 26, and 149 respectively, showing certain changes compared with the previous values. The current ratios and spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 are - 49, 217, and 367 respectively, also different from the previous values [1]. b. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3827 (Ringgit/ton), 1076 (cents/bushel), 52 (cents/pound), and 292 (dollars/ton) respectively. Their daily increases were 37, 1, 1, and - 2 respectively, with daily increase rates of 0.98%, 0.09%, 1.06%, and - 0.54% respectively [1]. c. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8290 and 8260 respectively, with increase rates of 1.59% and 1.60%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8750 and 8800 respectively, with increase rates of 1.51% and 1.50%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9460 and 9450 respectively, with an increase rate of 0.64%. For protein meals and peanuts, the spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3020 and 3090 respectively, with increase rates of 1.00% and 0.00%. The spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2430 and 2390 respectively, with increase rates of 0.41% and - 0.42%. The spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7600, with an increase rate of 0.00% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis for various products shows different values. For example, the spot basis for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 376. The current spot spreads such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 480, showing changes compared with the previous values [1]. d. Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, and near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil are - 451, - 203, 11, - 112, and 401 respectively, showing changes compared with the previous values [1]. e. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 10,870, 330, 1,727, 31,786, 31,278, and 1,500 respectively. The warehouse receipts for soybean oil have increased compared with the previous values, while others remain unchanged [1]. f. Industry Information - Indian vegetable oil imports in April were 891,558 tons, down from 1 million tons in March. Palm oil imports were 321,446 tons, down from 424,599 tons in March; sunflower oil imports were 180,128 tons, down from 190,645 tons in March; and soybean oil imports were 360,984 tons, up from 355,358 tons in March [2]. - HLIB maintains its average price forecasts for crude palm oil in 2025 and 2026 at 4000 Ringgit/ton and 3800 Ringgit/ton respectively, expecting the supply recovery led by Indonesia to limit the further rise of palm oil prices. The average price of crude palm oil so far this year is 4579 Ringgit/ton [2].