Group 1 - Recent acceleration in RMB appreciation reflects a weaker USD and year-end "settlement tide," leading to a consensus expectation for RMB strengthening [1][5][12] - The RMB has appreciated significantly against non-USD currencies, with a 2.45% decline in USD/RMB exchange rate in the first half of the year, while the USD index fell by 10.79% [4][5] - The year-end settlement period traditionally sees strong demand for RMB as export companies convert foreign earnings, further supporting RMB appreciation [5][11] Group 2 - Short-term support for RMB appreciation is expected from the delayed effects of corporate settlement demand, with historical data indicating a 3-6 month lag [9][12] - The upcoming Spring Festival is anticipated to provide ample time for settlement demand to be released, potentially boosting RMB strength in January [11][12] - The reversal of previous pressures on RMB, such as domestic deflation and declining asset returns, is expected to strengthen the RMB's upward momentum in the medium to long term [8][19][56] Group 3 - Historical analysis shows that during previous RMB appreciation cycles, both A-shares and H-shares generally performed well, with a strong negative correlation to the USD/RMB exchange rate [30][34] - The four previous RMB appreciation cycles since 2016 have seen A-shares rise, while H-shares have shown varying performance based on external liquidity sensitivity [30][34][56] - The primary drivers of stock performance during these cycles include domestic economic strength and external monetary easing [30][56] Group 4 - RMB appreciation impacts industry configuration through four main channels: reducing import costs, lowering foreign debt costs, enhancing domestic purchasing power, and attracting foreign capital back to Chinese assets [57][58] - Industries with high import dependency, such as coal, steel, and certain chemicals, are expected to benefit from reduced costs due to RMB appreciation [36][57] - Sectors with significant foreign currency liabilities, like construction and logistics, will see lower debt servicing costs, enhancing profitability [42][57] Group 5 - The RMB's strengthening is projected to enhance domestic consumption, particularly in sectors like cross-border e-commerce, luxury goods, and hospitality [45][48][57] - The shift in foreign capital preferences towards growth sectors such as electronics, automotive, and machinery is expected to continue, reinforcing the current market trends [51][52] - The anticipated capital inflow due to RMB appreciation could lead to a significant revaluation of Chinese assets, estimated at around $1.2 trillion [22][56]

今年以来，A股迎来了创立以来的第三次站上4000点。我们展望2026年，这一行情并未结束，具体原因如下： 首先，A股整体仍偏制造业属性，基于这一特点，我们来看制造业的整体情况。2025年制造业整体的资本开支和在建工程仍处于负增长区间，仅同比有小幅 回升。展望2026年，制造业同比反弹力度或进一步拖累的程度可能不会像今年这么显著，我们认为，明年制造业对整体GDP增速的贡献大概率会高于今年， 基本面改善的趋势性概率也在提升。 资料来源：Wind，申万宏源研究 海外市场方面，今年关税冲突后，全球经济韧性好于我们的整体预期。《美丽大法案》的公布与顺利推进，本质上是美国财政扩张的体现；近期美国政府的 停摆更多是一次性影响。另外，12月份降息落地后的相关表述，让大家担心2026年的货币政策会相对偏鹰，但更值得关注的是，美联储在12月降息后开启了 技术性扩表——这次扩表发生在12月1日宣布结束扩表后的两周，属于技术性扩表。这样的政策表述略显出尔反尔，也能说明美国的财政压力依然较大。 我们认为，在已实施扩表的背景下，2026年至少有一点确定性较高，那就是人民币对美元将进一步升值，这一点近期市场已有所体现。人民币对美元的进一 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved a strong eight consecutive days of gains, stabilizing above 3900 points, with the Wind All A Index rising by 2.78%, the CSI 500 increasing by 2.75%, and the CSI 2000 up by 3.06% [1] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.95 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 250 billion yuan compared to the previous week [1] Industry Analysis - In the CITIC primary industry sectors, most sectors saw gains, with non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals leading the rise, while retail, banking, and coal sectors experienced declines [1] Economic Data - November industrial enterprise profits continued to decline year-on-year, with a drop of 13.1%, marking the lowest level since September 2024. Meanwhile, operating revenue showed a slight recovery with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.3% [2] - The decline in profit growth is primarily attributed to a significant drop in profit margins, despite a slight recovery in industrial growth and stable price factors [2] Funding and Market Sentiment - The margin trading balance rose again, with a weekly average of 2.53 trillion yuan, indicating that market sentiment remains strong [2] - There was a slight outflow of funds from Hong Kong stocks, with a total outflow of 1.175 billion yuan from southbound funds in the past week [2] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. third-quarter GDP data showed a strong growth rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years, driven by robust consumer spending and a 5.4% increase in business equipment spending, particularly in computer equipment and AI data center investments [4] - Several U.S. officials have reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts, with discussions around adjusting inflation targets to a range [4] - Commodities, especially precious metals, performed strongly, with gold, silver, lithium carbonate, and copper prices rising by 4.41%, 18.31%, 8.12%, and 2.12% respectively [4] Currency Trends - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the U.S. dollar, surpassing the 7.0 mark, reaching a 15-month high, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets to global capital [5] - The RMB exchange rate is anticipated to maintain a strong trend in the short term, with a potential for moderate appreciation by 2026 [5] Investment Opportunities - The CSI 500 index, which covers leading companies across various sectors, is seen as a balanced investment option for investors looking for defensive and growth potential in a fluctuating market [5] - Investors interested in conveniently accessing core assets across industries may consider the CSI 500 ETF (159338) [5]

离岸人民币持续升值！ 对股市有何影响 20251227 摘要 上游资源如铜、镍、碳酸锂价格上涨，或预示春季行情启动，投资者可 关注贵金属、有色金属等板块，并采用 ETF 网格策略降低风险。 人民币升值与港股回调并存，反映外资对港股短期前景不确定性增加， 需综合考虑宏观经济、政策及国际形势等因素。 A 股成交量创历史新高，但需关注成交量能否稳定在 2 万亿以上，以及 高位板块能否顶住压力，以判断市场反弹空间。 港股面临圣诞假期资金避险及外资观望情绪影响，短期波动风险增加， 但基本面和估值仍具潜力。 美元走弱预期增强，导致结汇需求增加，人民币升值，增加了港股投资 的持仓成本和参与成本。 外资对中国经济复苏持乐观态度，但需政策落地和数据验证，目前观望 情绪浓厚，影响港股增量资金。 北证 50 专注于"专精特新"企业，长期发展前景乐观，但基本面不够 稳健，波动性较大，适合短线操作。 Q&A 近期市场行情出现了哪些变化，如何看待这些变化？ 最近市场行情出现了显著的变化。首先，A 股市场表现出色，指数开始修复， 而港股市场则相对疲弱，仍处于回调状态。其次，人民币汇率持续升值，同时 贵金属价格也进入新一轮上涨周期，包括铜、 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the impact of the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) on export companies and the overall market dynamics in 2026, particularly in the context of the US and European markets [1][4][7]. Key Points and Arguments - **Impact of RMB Appreciation**: The appreciation of the RMB poses challenges to export companies by affecting financial costs, particularly through foreign currency exchange gains and losses. Companies can respond by implementing price increases, adjusting product structures, and enhancing capacity utilization [1][2]. - **Market Expectations for RMB**: The RMB is expected to fluctuate between 6.8 and 7 against the USD in 2026, driven by year-end settlement demands and market expectations. The People's Bank of China is likely to actively manage the exchange rate to prevent excessive volatility [1][4]. - **Characteristics of Resilient Companies**: Companies that can better cope with RMB appreciation typically have high net profit margins, the ability to raise prices, and optimized structures, such as increased overseas production and a higher proportion of high-margin products [5][6]. - **Positive Outlook for Consumer Goods**: The consumer goods sector is expected to perform well due to lower price sensitivity compared to B2B industries, allowing for smoother price increases [6]. - **US Market Recovery**: The US market is anticipated to enter a recovery phase in 2026, supported by improved inflation control, job growth, and government stimulus measures, which will enhance consumer purchasing power [7][8]. - **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: The US real estate market has reached a low point and is expected to benefit from interest rate cuts, contributing positively to overall economic recovery and consumer spending [9]. - **Manufacturing and Capital Expenditure**: Lower interest rates are expected to benefit manufacturing and commercial capital expenditures, with a potential increase in equipment prices as demand recovers [10]. - **Emerging Markets Opportunities**: Emerging markets are less affected by RMB appreciation and present investment opportunities due to increased global capital expenditure and industrial shifts to Southeast Asia [11]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies with high operational efficiency that can effectively transfer costs to end product prices are recommended for investment. Additionally, emerging markets are seen as having stronger future demand, particularly influenced by US interest rate cuts [12]. Other Important Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: The anticipated recovery in consumer spending in the US is expected to be driven by a combination of improved economic conditions and government incentives, which will stimulate demand for discretionary goods [8]. - **Inventory Levels**: Current inventory levels in the US are reasonable, indicating that previous tariff impacts have not led to significant stockpiling, which bodes well for future consumption [8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the implications of RMB appreciation on export companies and the broader economic landscape in 2026.

哪些行业受益人民币升值 20251228 摘要 市场预计短期缩量整理，等待五日均线支撑，建议投资者挖掘机会，布 局年后行情。美国新联储主席人选公布或成节后重大催化剂，特朗普或 倾向于敢于降息的主席，以配合其持有大量美债的利益和弱美元政策。 国内方面，北京楼市新政支撑市场情绪，美股科技板块利空基本消化。 A500 ETF 资金流入，牛市预期下，保险资金可能抢跑，成交额放大有 望突破 4,000 点，市场向上弹性充足。 人民币资产重估是重要投资方向，人民币走强受益行业包括成本端的钢 铁、有色、石化、造纸、航空燃气等，负债端的航空公司和地产，以及 人民币核心资产如银行保险和港股。 看好出海板块，受益于 2026 年海外经济强劲，特朗普或努力提升美国 经济以应对中期选举压力。推荐奔马 50 组合，上周绝对收益率超 10%，超额收益约 4 个百分点。 关注科技龙头 IPO 相关产业链企业，如穗元、长鑫存储、世亚科技、国 仪量子等，其供应商和参股公司将在上市融资后受益，通过资本开支带 动需求增长。 Q&A 近期市场表现如何，未来走势预期如何？ 上周市场表现强劲，连续八个交易日上涨，符合春季躁动的预期。由于接近 4,000 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals continue to show strong performance, supported by favorable economic indicators and market conditions [2][18]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The 2026 National People's Congress and the Chinese financial work conference emphasized the continuation of a proactive fiscal policy, focusing on expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools [1]. - In November, China's industrial profits fell by 13.1% year-on-year, while high-tech manufacturing profits accelerated [1]. - The U.S. November CPI was reported at 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, indicating a downward trend that may provide room for interest rate cuts [2][18]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Spot silver prices surged, reaching new historical highs, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve [2][18]. - The weak employment data in the U.S. supports the Fed's potential for further rate cuts, which is expected to boost liquidity and positively impact precious metal prices [2][18]. - Long-term support for precious metals remains strong due to factors such as the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credibility and central bank gold purchases [2][18]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with significant fluctuations in the previous trading day, particularly in the metals sector [3][11]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend, supported by policy backing, capital protection, and industrial drivers [3][11]. - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the U.S. dollar, with expectations of further inflows of overseas capital, which may lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets [3][11]. Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices rose over 2%, reaching new historical highs, amid tight supply conditions and fluctuating smelting profits [4][19]. - The global copper supply-demand outlook is shifting towards a deficit due to supply disruptions [4][19]. - Key indicators such as electricity investment and automotive production are showing positive growth, while real estate remains weak [4][19]. Group 5: Other Commodities - The domestic coal-to-methanol production rate is at 85.66%, with a slight decrease in operational load due to reduced demand from MTO enterprises [14]. - The natural rubber market is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints from weather conditions in production areas [15]. - The lithium carbonate market continues to see strong demand, with production and inventory levels indicating a robust outlook despite potential supply increases in the future [22].

Domestic Insights - High-frequency data indicates that effective demand has been insufficient since Q4 2025, continuously squeezing corporate profit margins, leading to a significant reduction in the marginal effect of "price for volume" [2][12] - In November, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises remained in negative territory, with a decline of 7.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][14] - The appreciation of the RMB may be nearing its peak, driven by concentrated settlement demand near year-end, but the central bank may begin to intentionally control the extent of appreciation [2][12] - A break of the 7 mark in the central parity requires an increase in corporate hedging rates and the proportion of cross-border RMB settlements, with expectations for a favorable timing in mid to late 2026 [2][12] Overseas Insights - Following the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, Governor Ueda stated that they are steadily approaching the 2% inflation target and will continue to raise interest rates, maintaining a gradual tightening pace [2][13] - The U.S. Q3 GDP growth rate exceeded expectations at 4.3%, with over half of this growth attributed to personal consumption expenditures, while government investment has rebounded [2][13] - The high mortgage rates have a delayed transmission effect on the real estate market but are expected to significantly impact current consumption [2][13] Asset Market Insights - The A-share equity market continues its allocation trend, but short-term volatility may increase, especially with external disturbances expected after the New Year [3][12] - The USD/JPY exchange rate remains above 155, and any intervention by the Bank of Japan or a cooling of Fed rate cut expectations could cause temporary disturbances to domestic equity assets [3][12] Monetary Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's flexible operations have resulted in a tight balance in the funding environment, with a net injection of 652 billion yuan from various operations [4][12] - The average weekly rate for DR001 decreased by 0.950 basis points to 1.2633%, while DR007 increased by 0.330 basis points to 1.4464% [5][16] Government Bonds - The supply pressure of government bonds has significantly decreased, with a maturity repayment scale of 2,948.57 billion yuan, and the planned issuance for the upcoming week is 26 billion yuan, a substantial drop from the previous week [6][17] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit was 1.6394%, down 1.46 basis points from the previous week, while the secondary market saw slight increases in rates for various maturities [7][18] Major Asset Performance - Domestic long-term and short-term government bond yields showed a divergence, with short-term yields declining significantly [8][34] - Gold prices surged, while oil prices experienced fluctuations [11][34]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to experience a "cross-year + spring" rally, supported by favorable conditions such as liquidity and risk appetite [1][7][13] - Spring market conditions remain favorable due to loose liquidity, with private equity actively purchasing on dips and the appreciation of the RMB benefiting market liquidity [1][6] - Historical trends indicate that the A-share market typically experiences a "spring rally," and policy support is expected to continue, bolstering market confidence and attracting various funds [1][14] Group 2 - The market is anticipated to see a "systematic slow bull" trend, with a high level of confidence in the medium-term outlook, although short-term movements may require cautious observation [2][11] - The A500 ETF has shown significant net inflows, indicating stable incremental funds entering the market, despite potential seasonal outflows in the following quarter [12][7] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to resonate with the capital market, enhancing industry configurations and attracting foreign investment [10][9] Group 3 - The focus on structural opportunities in a volatile market suggests that sectors with low attention but high long-term ROE potential, such as chemicals and engineering machinery, should be prioritized [3][15] - The "transformation bull" market is characterized by economic structural changes and capital market reforms, indicating a shift in investment focus towards emerging technologies and large financial institutions [5][4] - The market is likely to experience fluctuations, especially as the year-end approaches and companies begin to disclose annual performance forecasts, which may lead to a preference for large-cap value stocks [8][11]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the RMB exchange rate has been appreciating continuously since late November, recently reaching new highs for the year, with the offshore RMB rate surpassing 7.0, accelerating in its appreciation [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Exchange Rate Movement** - The offshore RMB exchange rate broke the 7.0 mark on December 25, reaching its highest level since September 2024, while the onshore RMB rate is also close to the 7.0 threshold, marking its highest since May 2023 [1]. - **Drivers of Appreciation** - The depreciation of the US dollar and seasonal factors are identified as direct drivers of the current appreciation of the RMB. However, monetary authorities have moderately restrained the pace of this appreciation [1]. - **Market Expectations** - Overall, the year-end appreciation of the RMB is not unexpected, although the extent of the appreciation has slightly exceeded expectations. The primary factors contributing to this rapid appreciation in the short term are the significant decline of the US dollar and the resonance of seasonal factors [1].