这里是帮主郑重为你整理的中长线贵金属龙头标的清单，全部用大白话讲透核心逻辑、布局区间和实操 策略，方便你直接照着做（数据截至2026.1.12，仅作参考，不构成投资建议） 黄金组（压舱石，适合分批建仓，控制总仓位） 山东黄金（600547） 核心逻辑：国内黄金开采绝对龙头，矿产金产量连续多年居首，矿山储备和产能都很稳。美联储降息预 期+央行持续购金，金价中长期有支撑，公司业绩会跟着金价稳步兑现。前几天和矿业圈老伙计聊，他 们都觉得这类龙头的抗波动能力最强。 布局区间：当前股价45元左右，回调至40-42元区间分批建仓，首次仓位控制在总资金的3%-5%，不追 高；若跌破38元，结合金价趋势再评估加仓。 实操提示：适合作为资产组合里的"底仓"，拿住不放，别频繁交易。 盛达资源（000603） 核心逻辑：A股里纯正的白银龙头，核心资产是7座高品位银矿，白银业务占比高。白银兼具金融避险 和工业属性，光伏银浆、新能源汽车等需求持续增长，双轮驱动下，弹性比黄金大。 布局区间：当前股价（参考板块估值），回调至20%左右（比如从高点回落）分批建仓，首次仓位不超 过总资金的2%；白银波动大，一定要设好止损。 实操提示：适合在金 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices are experiencing significant increases, with gold surpassing $4600 per ounce and silver reaching $84 per ounce, both marking historical highs. The rise is attributed to geopolitical tensions and poor non-farm payroll data, which have heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1]. Group 1: Gold Market - COMEX gold prices have reached a record high of over $4600 per ounce, marking an increase of $280 since the beginning of the year [1]. - The rise in gold prices is driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to escalating geopolitical risks [1]. Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver prices have surged nearly 5% today, reaching a historical high of $84 per ounce [1]. - The performance of silver reflects similar trends in the gold market, influenced by geopolitical tensions and market expectations regarding interest rates [1]. Group 3: Stock Market Impact - The A-share precious metals sector opened strongly, with Hunan Silver rising over 5% and Zhaojin Gold increasing by more than 3% [1]. - Other stocks in the precious metals sector, such as Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Gold, also experienced gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards precious metals [1].

Report Overview - Report Title: Macro and Commodity Weekly Report - Analyst: Wang Jing - Release Date: January 12, 2026 - Report Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the first week of 2026, the global capital market showed a positive trend. A-shares in China had a strong start, while overseas, geopolitical tensions increased, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut decreased. The US dollar first rose and then fell, and the RMB remained stable and strong. Commodities performed well, with precious metals leading the way, followed by non-ferrous and black metals, energy, and agricultural products [5][10]. - The domestic bond market declined, with short-term bonds performing better than long-term bonds. The stock market had a broad-based rally, with the growth style outperforming the value style, and the CSI 500 leading the gains. All domestic commodity sectors closed higher, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 4.01% week-on-week [5]. - In the futures market, funds flowed into the commodity market, especially into non-ferrous metals, non-metallic building materials, coal, coking, and steel, oilseeds, and energy sectors. The soft commodity sector saw a significant outflow of funds. The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index continued to decline, while the volatility of the domestic Wind and Nanhua Commodity Indexes increased [6]. 3) Section Summaries Market Overview - Global capital markets were positive in the first week of 2026. A-shares in China had a strong start, while overseas, geopolitical tensions increased, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut decreased. The US dollar first rose and then fell, and the RMB remained stable and strong. Commodities performed well, with precious metals leading the way, followed by non-ferrous and black metals, energy, and agricultural products [5][10]. - The domestic bond market declined, with short-term bonds performing better than long-term bonds. The stock market had a broad-based rally, with the growth style outperforming the value style, and the CSI 500 leading the gains. All domestic commodity sectors closed higher, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 4.01% week-on-week [5]. Futures Market Capital Flow - The commodity futures market saw a significant inflow of funds. The non-ferrous metals, non-metallic building materials, coal, coking, and steel, oilseeds, and energy sectors had obvious inflows, while the soft commodity sector had a significant outflow [6][19]. Futures Market Volatility - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index continued to decline, while the volatility of the domestic Wind and Nanhua Commodity Indexes increased. Most commodity futures sectors saw an increase in volatility, with the oilseeds and grain sectors seeing a significant decline, and the non-ferrous and soft commodity sectors seeing a notable increase [6][28]. Fed Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January decreased. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% was 95.4%, significantly higher than last week's 81.4%. The probability of a 25bp rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% dropped to 4.6%. The market still expects about 2 rate cuts in 2026 [6]. US Stock Market - The US stock market started strongly in 2026 but will face challenges in the coming week, including the start of the Q4 earnings season, the release of December inflation data, and increasing geopolitical uncertainties. The VIX index remained close to its 2025 low [7]. Sector Performance - In the futures market, most domestic commodity futures closed higher. The top gainers were lithium carbonate, platinum, and silver futures, while the top losers were polysilicon, container shipping index, and industrial silicon futures [24]. - In terms of market sentiment, there were few commodity futures with significant increases in both price and open interest, such as apples, aluminum, and coking coal. There were many commodity futures with significant decreases in both price and open interest, such as polysilicon, container shipping index, and peanuts [26]. Macro Logic - The domestic stock market rose across the board, with the growth style outperforming the value style. The valuation of the stock market increased, and the equity risk premium (ERP) decreased [34][35]. - The commodity price index fluctuated strongly, and the inflation expectation continued to rebound [38]. - The "fund seesaw" effect between the stock market and commodities was not significant, and the spread between domestic and international commodity futures widened [41][44]. - The US bond yield showed a differentiated trend, with the term spread slightly decreasing. The real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price reached a new high [53]. - The US high-frequency "recession indicator" declined, the Citi Economic Surprise Index turned down, and the 10Y - 3M US bond spread widened significantly and then fluctuated within a narrow range [62]. Data Tracking - International commodities mostly rose, with the BDI index falling sharply, the CRB index remaining flat, soybeans and corn rising slightly, copper and oil prices increasing, and precious metals regaining their upward momentum [30]. - The asphalt开工率 decreased seasonally, real estate sales remained weak, freight rates rebounded and diverged, and short-term capital interest rates fluctuated upward [45]. - US bond yields fluctuated, the Sino-US interest rate spread remained stable, inflation expectations increased, financial conditions were loose, the US dollar index rebounded, and the RMB remained stable and strong [60]. Economic Data - The US December non-farm payroll data was mixed. The number of non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5% [72]. - China's December inflation data showed that both CPI and PPI continued to rebound. The CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing [77][78]. This Week's Focus - Monday (January 12): Swiss December consumer confidence index, Eurozone January Sentix investor confidence index, Japanese stock market closed for one day. - Tuesday (January 13): US 10-year Treasury auction, Japan's November trade balance, US December NFIB small business confidence index, US December unadjusted CPI annual rate, US December seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, US December seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate, US October new home sales annualized, speeches by New York Fed President Williams and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem. - Wednesday (January 14): US API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9, US November retail sales monthly rate, US November PPI annual rate, US Q3 current account, US December existing home sales annualized, US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9, China's December trade balance, speech by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker on the economic outlook, speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman in Athens, OPEC monthly oil market report. - Thursday (January 15): UK November three-month GDP monthly rate, UK November seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, Germany's 2025 full-year GDP growth rate, Eurozone November seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, US EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending January 9, South Korea's central bank interest rate decision, Fed Beige Book, speech by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, opening speech by New York Fed President Williams at an event. - Friday (January 16): Germany's December CPI monthly rate final value, US December industrial production monthly rate, US January NAHB housing market index.

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector has emerged as the best-performing segment in the market during the first week of trading this year, with several companies rebounding over 10% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The primary reasons for the strong performance include a significant rise in global markets, with the US biotech ETF XBI outperforming the market by 25% since Q4 2025, while Hong Kong innovative drugs are beginning to recover the gap [1][3]. - The market's risk appetite has improved, with ongoing interest in AI themes and innovative drugs, leading to new highs in US biotech stocks [1][3]. - Anticipation for the upcoming JPM Healthcare Conference is high, as Chinese innovative drug companies are expected to present data that could facilitate more business development (BD) transactions [1][9]. Group 2: Business Development Opportunities - The innovative drug sector is expected to benefit from a surge in BD transactions, with projections indicating that by 2025, the total value of BD deals involving Chinese innovative drug companies could reach $135.6 billion, with 157 transactions expected [9][11]. - Recent notable BD transactions include a $2 billion licensing deal for a prostate cancer drug and a $1.06 billion deal for an ADC drug, highlighting the growing interest from multinational pharmaceutical companies [9][11]. Group 3: Economic Factors and Valuation - The expectation of US interest rate cuts is rising, with a 40.7% probability of a rate cut in March, which could serve as a catalyst for the innovative drug sector throughout the year [11][12]. - The valuation of the innovative drug sector has adjusted significantly, with current static valuations being much lower compared to September 2025, indicating potential for future growth as the sector continues to attract BD transactions [12][13]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions, investing in innovative drugs through ETFs is recommended as a stable approach, particularly with the anticipated increase in BD transactions and the potential for significant returns [15].

Core Viewpoint - The overall direction for gold is bullish, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank buying [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - On January 12, gold prices were expected to rise due to the anticipation of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, as indicated by weak U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll report showed a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, but only 50,000 new jobs were added, reflecting a weak labor market [2][5]. - Geopolitical events, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and potential actions against Iran, have led to increased safe-haven demand for gold, contributing to its price increase [2][6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices fluctuated between $4,460 and $4,480 before breaking through to $4,517, then retracing to $4,511 at the close [1][4]. - On the following Monday, gold opened higher, reaching a new historical high of $4,601 before stabilizing around $4,590 [1][4]. - Key support levels are identified at $4,560 and $4,550, while resistance is noted at $4,600 and the upper Bollinger Band at $4,680 [3][6].

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月12日，周一亚市的黄金价格再创记录，今早跳空高开，将记录高位刷新至4600美元关口，尽管上周 五公布的美国12月非农喜忧参半，美联储基本可以确定1月不会降息，但是市场保留年内至少降息两次 的预期。此外，地缘政治紧张持续，当前伊朗不断升级的抗议活动让市场保持警惕，避险情绪进一步高 涨。 ▲ATFX图 上周公布的美国就业数据维持了市场对美联储进一步降息的预期，支撑了不产生收益的贵金属价格。该 就业报告显示，上月就业增长低于预期，这进一步巩固了市场对美联储将继续降低借贷成本以刺激经济 的预期，白银价格也逼近历史高位。 2025年，黄金价格飙升65%，创下近半个世纪以来的最大涨幅后，彭博社调查显示，基金经理仍然押注 金价将进一步上涨，他们认为推动金价创下历史新高的力量依然存在，因包括利率下降、地缘政治紧张 局势加剧以及对美元信心下降。 机构认为，主要发达市场货币信心下降——其原因是央行独立性受到质疑以及主权债务不断攀升——这 是支撑金价的关键因素。发达经济体不断膨胀的公共债务加剧了去年的政治动荡，从美国国会的僵局和 法国的政治瘫痪，到日本新领导层创纪录的预算案受到审查，都印证了这一点。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed a mixed trend on January 12, 2026, with some commodities rising significantly and others declining [5]. - Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations, and factors such as macro - economy, policy, and geopolitics affect their prices, with different price trends expected for each commodity. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Metals - **沪铜**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is low, short - term macro support for Shanghai copper is weak. The supply side may face production cuts, the demand side has strong terminal demand but weak copper product demand, showing a structure of strong expectation and weak reality, with a medium - to - long - term upward trend after a phased correction [8]. - **碳酸锂**: Affected by the export tax - rebate adjustment, the market has a strong expectation of rush - export, driving the futures price to rise sharply. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to be strong under the stimulation of rush - export, but the potential negative impact of CATL's resumption of production needs to be noted [10]. - **焦煤**: The spot price of coking coal is relatively stable, the supply side has an increase in production, and the demand side has a recovery in demand from coking enterprises and steel mills. The price is expected to be volatile and strong, but chasing high prices has risks [21][22]. Energy - **原油**: OPEC + maintains the production plan, the demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation affect the price, which is expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **沥青**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand in the north is affected by the end of construction, and the demand in the south is average. Geopolitical events in Venezuela affect the raw material supply, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate greatly, with the far - month asphalt/near - month crude oil showing a strong and volatile trend [14]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is low, the supply has new capacity and a decrease in maintenance, the demand is in the off - season. The macro - environment is positive, but the improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16]. - **塑料**: The开工率 is at a medium level, the downstream demand of agricultural film is in the off - season, the supply has new capacity, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][19]. - **PVC**: The supply side has an increase in开工率, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and there may be a rush - export phenomenon before the cancellation of export tax - rebates. The 3 - 5 contracts are expected to be strong and volatile [20]. - **尿素**: After a continuous rise, it enters a correction stage. The supply side has an increase in daily output, the demand side has weak support, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [23]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose, with the CSI 1000 rising the most at 3.75% [5][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all had different degrees of increase or remained flat, with the 30 - year rising the most at 0.30% [6].

对于后市展望，世界黄金协会在最新发布的报告中预计，在2025年表现亮眼的基础上，2026年黄金价格 可能还有15%至30%的上涨空间。星展银行（中国）高级投资策略师邓志坚表示，黄金价格中长期上涨 趋势明确，投资者应秉持中长期配置理念，重点关注央行增持动态、美元汇率走势及全球风险事件等核 心变量。 在国内市场，国际金价上涨迅速传导至消费端。1月12日，周生生、老庙黄金等品牌的足金饰品零售价 已上调至每克1429元附近，单日涨幅近20元。部分品牌的一口价产品也传出即将调价的消息。 随着金价持续高位运行，金融机构对相关业务的风险管理也趋于审慎。工商银行近期发布公告，自1月 12日起，个人客户办理积存金业务的开户、主动积存或新增定投计划，需取得C3-平衡型及以上的风险 评估结果，较此前要求的C1-保守型有所提升。此举旨在市场波动加剧的背景下，进一步强化投资者适 当性管理。 2026年1月12日亚洲早盘时段，国际贵金属市场迎来历史性突破。现货黄金价格盘中首次站上每盎司 4600美元关口，刷新历史最高纪录。同一时段，现货白银价格同步大幅上扬，盘中涨幅一度超过5%， 同样创下历史新高。 市场分析认为，多重因素共同促成了本轮 ...

1月12日，周一，亚盘，贵金属价格持续攀升。现货黄金盘中首次站上4600美元大关，新年首月累涨280 美元；现货白银盘中突破83.9美元/盎司，超越前两周高点创下历史新高，日内涨幅一度接近5%。 多重因素正推动金银刷新历史新高：美国上周五公布的非农数据不及预期，被认为支持美联储进一步降 息的预期；地缘政治紧张局势加剧；美联储主席鲍威尔表示，该央行已收到司法部大陪审团传票，威胁 要对其去年六月有关美联储总部翻修的证词提出刑事起诉，美元因此在亚洲小幅走低；与此同时，美国 最高法院未能对特朗普的关税做出权衡， 另外，黄金和白银都将对年度商品指数再平衡极其敏感，包括彭博商品指数 （BCOM） 和标准普尔高 盛商品指数等指数。据一些估计，商品指数必须出售大约50亿美元的黄金和白银才能重新平衡权重。 责任编辑：陈平 1月12日，周一，亚盘，贵金属价格持续攀升。现货黄金盘中首次站上4600美元大关，新年首月累涨280 美元；现货白银盘中突破83.9美元/盎司，超越前两周高点创下历史新高，日内涨幅一度接近5%。 多重因素正推动金银刷新历史新高：美国上周五公布的非农数据不及预期，被认为支持美联储进一步降 息的预期；地缘政治紧张 ...

值得注意的是，金价刷新历史新高并非单一因素推动，而是地缘政治风险与货币政策预期共同作用的结 果。在全球不确定性居高不下、美联储政策前景偏向宽松的背景下，黄金的避险与配置价值短期内仍难 以被削弱。不过，随着价格快速攀升，市场对宏观数据的敏感度也在提高，未来金价的波动幅度可能进 一步放大。 说一下黄金接下来的走势： 1月12日，周一亚洲时段，黄金价格一度升至约4600美元附近，刷新周一亚洲时段，黄金价格一度升至 约4600美元附近，刷新最高纪录。这一波涨势的背后，是全球不确定性加剧导致的避险资金持续流入。 与此同时，市场对美国年内降息的预期也为金价提供了重要支撑。 地缘政治风险是本轮金价上行的关键推手。美国总统正在权衡针对伊朗的多种潜在军事选项，而伊朗国 内此前发生的致命抗议事件进一步加剧了紧张局势。这种不确定性显著推升了市场的风险厌恶情绪，让 黄金作为传统避险资产的吸引力大幅增强。 地缘政治风险是本轮金价上行的关键推手。美国总统正在权衡针对伊朗的多种潜在军事选项，而伊朗国 内此前发生的致命抗议事件进一步加剧了紧张局势。这种不确定性显著推升了市场的风险厌恶情绪，让 黄金作为传统避险资产的吸引力大幅增强。 值得注意 ...