从市场运行节奏看，沪指突破五、六月份的震荡小箱体，但去年四季度高点附近压力仍大。沪指上 周一举突破了五、六月份来回震荡的小箱体，实现了重心的上移，并创出年内新高。但是，去年四季度 的成交密集区仍有较强技术阻力，在没有实质性利好信息的配合下，预计难以一蹴而就得向上突破。 首先，中东地缘事件缓和，市场风险偏好回升。上周，以色列和伊朗的军事冲突有所缓和，交战各 方约定停战止戈。全球资本市场总体呈现回升状态，国内市场风险偏好明显回升，沪指创出年内新高。 此外，美联储降息预期在上周有所加强，亦对反弹行情有所助推。展望后期，国内经济数据和上市公司 的中报将成为影响行情的重要影响因素。 上周，两市震荡反弹，日均成交明显增加。沪指上周一路反弹，周中高点冲破年内高点，周五有所 回落，收盘略低于五天均线。深圳成指上周持续反弹，周五收盘重新站上半年线。量能方面，上周两市 日均量能超过 14000 亿，较上周出现明显增加。上周市场热点主要集中在军工、TMT 和非银金融行 业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技风格涨幅更大。 风险提示：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超 预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 ...

Global Debt and Economic Impact - Global public debt is projected to rise from $97 trillion in 2023 to $102 trillion in 2024, marking a historical high, with developing countries being the most affected [1] - The International Bank for Settlements warns that trade policies may expose global economic vulnerabilities and increase inflation risks, suggesting central banks focus on maintaining market trust [1] U.S. Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year-on-year in May, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6% [2] - Personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.3% month-on-month in May, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year, while personal income decreased by 0.4%, the largest drop since 2021 [2] Automotive Industry in the UK - The UK automotive sector saw a significant decline in production, with May output down 32.8% year-on-year to 49,810 vehicles, the lowest level for the month since 1949, excluding the pandemic year of 2020 [2] Inflation Trends in Japan and France - Tokyo's core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year in June, a decrease from 3.6% in May, falling short of the market expectation of 3.3% [2] - France's CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year in June, driven by stronger service sector inflation and a slight increase in food inflation [2] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 432.43 points to close at 43,819.27, a gain of 1.00% [3] - The S&P 500 index increased by 32.05 points to 6,173.07, up 0.52%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 105.55 points to 20,273.46, also up 0.52% [3] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for August rose by $0.28 to $65.52 per barrel, an increase of 0.43% [4] - COMEX gold futures fell by 1.85% to $3,286.10 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 2.94% [3][4]

7 月流动性会更松吗？ 2025 年 06 月 29 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 经济动态跟踪 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com ➢ 6 月流动性进入年内"最松"状态，展望 7 月，流动性有哪些关注点？ 第一，参考近年规律，7 月市场往往会迎来"自发性"宽松。近年来，经济运行 基本遵循一季度"开门红"，随后增长动能渐趋平缓的规律，财政、金融更多靠前 发力。因此在 7 月份，政府债和信贷需求很难构成流动性"冲击"。 第二，央行对于经济的判断，虽然还不具有"紧迫性"，但已开始关注下行风险。 往后看，重点关注关税扰动下的制造业景气波折。经验表明，每当制造业 PMI 连 续 3 个月（或以上）跌入收缩区间，资金面往往会转松，有时甚至会触发总量货 币政策调整。再加上近期美联储降息预期"再起"，国内货币宽松的空间随之打 开。 第三，在工具选择上，货币政策更加注重灵活性和时效度，短期内重启国债买卖 的必要性不高。7 月并非财政"大月"，此外，5 月以来央 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent negative economic data from the United States has intensified expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a decline in the US dollar's value and raising concerns about its status as the global reserve currency [1][2]. Economic Data Summary - In May, the core PCE price index slightly exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while consumer spending fell by 0.3%, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year [1]. - The final GDP for Q1 and new home sales data released on June 25 were disappointing, further fueling rate cut expectations [1]. - Market data indicates a 27% probability for a rate cut in July and an 84% probability for September [1]. Dollar Performance Summary - The US dollar index has fallen for five consecutive trading days, dropping below the 97 mark, reaching its lowest point since March 2022 [1]. - Year-to-date, the dollar has depreciated by 10.34%, with a 4.59% decline in the last two months [1]. Factors Influencing Dollar Decline - The strong performance of the euro has exerted direct pressure on the dollar, as the euro accounts for over 60% of the dollar index [1]. - A historic agreement among NATO members to significantly increase defense spending has injected new vitality into the European economy, further supporting the euro's appreciation [1]. Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been cautious about rate cuts, citing concerns over inflation pressures from trade wars, and has not provided clear guidance to investors [2]. - Powell's recent comments during a congressional hearing suggested a potential openness to rate cuts, but his statements remain ambiguous [2]. Political Pressure - Former President Trump has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Powell's reluctance to cut rates, arguing that the lack of action has negatively impacted the US economy and contributed to the dollar's decline [4]. - The conflicting economic data in the US has created uncertainty for investors regarding the future value of the dollar, exacerbating its downward trend [4]. Concerns Over Dollar's Reserve Status - Powell defended the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency during congressional hearings, asserting its continued strength as the world's largest reserve currency [4]. - Despite his confidence, there are underlying concerns reflected in his statements regarding the sustainability of US federal debt and the potential impact of the "Big Beautiful Bill" on the dollar's reserve currency status [5].

Market Overview - Global risk assets rebounded this week amid easing geopolitical tensions and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the dollar under pressure and non-dollar currencies strengthening [1] - The S&P 500 index rose 3.44% this week, closing at 6173.07 points, surpassing its previous historical closing high from February 19 [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 3.82% to 43819.27 points, while the Nasdaq index gained 4.25% to 20273.46 points, also breaking its historical closing high from December 16, 2024 [1] U.S. Stock Performance - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks led the gains in the U.S. market, with Nvidia rising 9.66% to a market capitalization of $3.85 trillion [1] - Other notable tech stocks included META (+7.52%), Google A (+7.14%), Amazon (+6.49%), Microsoft (+3.88%), Tesla (+0.51%), and Apple (+0.04%) [1] European Market Performance - European stock markets mostly rose, with the STOXX 600 index up 1.32%, Germany's DAX 30 up 2.92%, France's CAC 40 up 1.34%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.28% [1] Asia-Pacific Market Performance - The South Korean stock market rose 1.13% for the week, with a year-to-date increase of 27.36% [2] - The Nikkei 225 index surged 4.55%, surpassing 40,000 points for the first time since January 27 [2] - The Indian SENSEX 30 index increased by 2% over the week [2] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index fell 1.52% to 97.26, marking five consecutive days of decline [2] - Non-dollar currencies rebounded, with the euro rising 1.7% against the dollar, the yen up approximately 1%, and the Swiss franc increasing by 2.3% [2] Commodity Market - Gold prices fell, with spot gold dropping below $3,330 per ounce, a two-week low, down 2.8% for the week [2] - WTI crude oil prices fell significantly, with a weekly decline of 11.88%, dropping below $66 per barrel [2] - Brent crude oil also saw a decline, with a weekly drop of 12.11%, closing at $66.34 per barrel [2] Employment Data Insights - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, with an increase of 139,000 jobs, stabilizing the unemployment rate at 4.2% [4] - Analysts expect June's non-farm payrolls to slow to 120,000, with the unemployment rate projected to rise to 4.3% [4][5] - The job market indicators suggest potential downward trends, with leading indicators pointing towards a possible increase in unemployment rates in the coming years [5] U.S. Stock Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market has rebounded after a period of extreme risk aversion, with July historically being a strong month for stock performance [6] - The S&P 500's earnings per share growth is expected to follow the trend of overall corporate profits, with current EPS growth expectations at 7.5% [6] - However, the market's valuation remains high, with the current price-to-earnings ratio at levels seen in early March, indicating limited potential for further valuation increases [7]

策 略 研 究 2025 年 06 月 28 日 牛市启动的尝试 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/06/23-25/06/28) 一 周 回 顾 展 望 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一、短期市场向上突破的线索拆解：4-5 月关键窗口稳定资本市场预期，出清悲观持仓； 长期资金入市效果显现，保险增配权益，前期银行逆势上涨。前期市场中枢本就偏高。 市场正常反映短期改善：地缘冲突快速缓和，交易美联储降息预期，主题热度升温(稳定 币主题领涨)。另外，指数突破本身也直接推升了风险偏好。 ⚫ 本周上证综指向上突破 3 月高点，我们对行情线索进行拆解： ...

周三A股继续上涨，当天券商股因利好消息而大涨。 周三晚间传来的外部消息略显利空，因美国总统特朗普称"以色列与伊朗间军事冲突可能再次爆发"，连 续上攻了三天的A股于周四稍有回落。 每经记者｜郑步春 每经编辑｜赵云 本周前三天A股连续带量上涨，周四涨势受限，周五则有所回吐，最终各主要股指周K线均收出了带有 较明显上影的中阳线。上证综指全周累计涨1.91%至3424.23点，较高点的3462.75点已回落了不少。深 综指、创业板综指、科创50、北证50全周分别涨4.24%、5.71%、3.17%、6.84%。 前一周末美国以轰炸机携"钻地弹"的形式远程奔袭了伊斯的三处核设施，受此影响，A股本周一低开， 但超预期地实现反包。周一晚间又传来以色列与伊朗停火的相关消息，使市场风险偏好显著抬升，周二 A股借势进一步大涨。 周五上午统计局公布的1-5月规模以上工业企业利润同比降1.1%，弱于1-4月的同比增1.4%；5月单月规 模以上工业企业利润同比大降9.1%，大幅弱于4月单月的同比增3.0%。这对包括银行股在内的绝大多数 个股都会构成一定压制。 目前，投资者半年末结账的需求应已基本结束，个股或板块的异动将有所减少。外部扰 ...

Market Performance - US stock markets collectively rose, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reaching all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1% to 43,819.27 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose by 0.52% to 6,173.07 points and 20,273.46 points, respectively. For the week, the Dow Jones rose by 3.82%, S&P 500 by 3.44%, and Nasdaq by 4.25% [1] - In Europe, the DAX index rose by 1.62% to 24,033.22 points, the CAC40 increased by 1.78% to 7,691.55 points, and the FTSE 100 rose by 0.72% to 8,798.91 points. For the week, the DAX rose by 2.92%, CAC40 by 1.34%, and FTSE 100 by 0.28% [3][4] Individual Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.22%, with notable gains in Chinese concept stocks. Century Internet surged over 18%, while Daqo New Energy and JinkoSolar rose over 4%. Conversely, Brain Regen fell over 14%, and companies like Xpeng and Tiger Brokers saw declines of over 5% [5] - Nike's stock surged over 15%, becoming a market focus. Despite a significant drop in revenue and net profit for Q4 and the full fiscal year 2025, the performance exceeded market expectations. Q4 revenue fell 12% to $11.1 billion, and net profit dropped 86% to $211 million. For the full year, revenue decreased 10% to $46.3 billion, and net profit fell 44% to $3.219 billion [7][8] Economic Indicators - The US consumer income for May decreased by 0.4%, significantly below the expected growth of 0.3%. Personal spending also fell by 0.1%, contrary to the anticipated increase of 0.1%. However, the consumer confidence index rose sharply from 52.2 to 60.7, marking the largest increase since early 2024 [11] - The core PCE price index for May rose by 2.68% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.6%. The month-on-month increase was 0.2%, compared to the expected 0.1% [10][11]

周五（6月27日），欧美股市集体收涨，纳指、标普500指数创历史新高。 美股方面，道琼斯工业指数涨1%，报43819.27点；标普500指数涨0.52%，报6173.07点；纳斯达克指数涨0.52%，报20273.46点。其中，标普500指 数、纳斯达克指数均创历史新高。本周，道琼斯工业指数涨3.82%，标普500指数涨3.44%，纳斯达克指数涨4.25%。 | 美股指数 它 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 43819.27 | 20273.46 | 6173.07 | | +432.43 +1.00% +105.55 +0.52% | | +32.05 +0.52% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7375.49 | 22740.25 | 6220.75 | | +16.30 +0.22% | +71.00 +0.31% | +25.75 +0.42% | 欧洲股市方面，德国DAX指数涨1.62%，报24033.22点；法国CAC40指数涨1.78%，报7691.55点；英国富时100指数涨0.72% ...

科技股是本轮反弹中的绝对主角。以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数自4月8日以来上涨近32%，远超大盘 表现，而纳斯达克综合指数也在周五收涨0.52%，收报20,273.46点，为2024年12月16日以来首次创出收盘 新高。 相比之下，道琼斯工业平均指数表现相对滞后。该指数周五上涨432.43点，涨幅1%，收报43,819.27点，自 4月以来累计涨幅约16%，仍较历史高点低约2.7%。以价值股、传统行业为主的道指未能跟上科技股驱动 的强势节奏。 Zacks Investment Management的客户投资组合经理Brian Mulberry表示，"所有我们原本担忧的负面因素，尤 其是关税带来的冲击并未真正发生，经济数据的韧性也超过预期，这令市场重新恢复理性并走回正 轨。"他指出，目前市场已经回到了2月末的水平，而彼时的波动还未真正开始。 不过，尽管当前市场表现令人振奋，未来的上行动力仍有待观察。Granite Bay Wealth Management的首席 投资官Paul Stanley指出，市场目前正寻找新的催化剂来进一步推动股指上行。随着中东局势暂时缓和，投 资者的注意力逐渐回到美国国内政策的走向， ...