Core Viewpoint - The public fund issuance market continues to show a strong preference for bond funds, particularly certificates of deposit funds, while equity funds face challenges in fundraising [1][4]. Fund Issuance Overview - A total of 15 new funds were established last week, with a total issuance scale of 89.34 billion yuan, predominantly driven by bond funds, which raised 76.53 billion yuan, accounting for 85.66% of the total [1][4]. - The top fund, "People's Insurance Zhongzheng Interbank Certificate of Deposit AAA Index 7-Day Holding," raised 39.10 billion yuan with a subscription period of only 9 days, indicating high investor enthusiasm [2][3]. Fund Types and Trends - The issuance of equity products, including stock and mixed funds, was limited, with only 4 and 6 new funds respectively, raising 5.49 billion yuan and 6.06 billion yuan, which together accounted for less than 15% of the total [3][4]. - The market for passive index bond funds is expanding from interest rate bonds to credit bonds and niche sectors, with fund managers designing differentiated products to meet institutional needs [2][4]. Market Characteristics - The current fund issuance market exhibits three main characteristics: 1. Risk-averse sentiment is driving demand for low-risk products like interbank certificate of deposit funds and short-term bond funds [4]. 2. There is a divergence in the popularity of index investments, with broad-based ETFs facing challenges while thematic products require more time to cultivate the market [4]. 3. The issuance of equity products has entered a "frozen period," leading institutions to consider long-term investment strategies such as regular investment plans [4].

DLS外汇回顾本周（6月9日-6月14日），市场在多重力量交织之下呈现出显著波动。一方面，美国5月通 胀数据低于市场预期，核心CPI环比涨幅回落，使得投资者对于美联储年内降息的押注迅速升温；另一 方面，中东地缘局势升级引发全球避险情绪蔓延，黄金、原油等商品价格大幅上行，全球主要股指普遍 承压。这种"利好预期"与"风险现实"并存的局面，使得投资者情绪在乐观与担忧之间徘徊，资产价格的 表现亦显得扑朔迷离。 当前的市场状态不宜简单解读为"利空"或"利多"，而应更多地理解为一个转折点或观察期。投资者对于 美联储降息的预期确实增强，但从实际利率水平来看，美债收益率尚未大幅回落，说明市场仍在权衡通 胀反复与政策空间之间的博弈。同时，地缘政治的不确定性正在压制风险偏好，全球机构资金更多选择 以"观察、控制仓位"为主的策略，以应对未来可能出现的黑天鹅事件。 尽管通胀下行释放出政策空间，但资金的实际动向却反映出更大的防御倾向。市场目前更像是在等待明 确信号的前夜，既不敢全面做多，也不愿轻易做空。当下的每一次资产波动背后，透露出的都是投资者 对于未来局势缺乏信心的真实写照。因此，判断市场情绪的真实走向，还需更多来自宏观层面的验证 ...

证券研究报告|宏观专题报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 15 日 [Table_Title] 以伊冲突再燃，避险防御为上 [Table_Title2] ——经济分析与资产展望 06,09-06,15 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: ► 复盘：大类资产表现 海外：以伊冲突急剧恶化带动原油、黄金价格直线拉升，全球权益整体下 挫。股市方面，市场对中东局势的担忧压倒中美磋商利好，美股三大股指 受震荡收跌。债券方面，美债标售稳健叠加经济数据走弱带来的降息利 好，美债走强，10 年期美债收益率下行 10bp。商品方面，布油本周涨超 13%，收复年内所有跌幅。除地缘因素外，周内美国 2021 年以来首次下调 石油产量预期也助推油价飙升。PPI、CPI 数据双双不及预期，美元走 弱，周内美元指数一度跌破 98，创三年新低。黄金：避险升温，黄金持 续走强，comex 金、伦金重新突破 3400 美元/盎司。 国内：中美磋商进展顺利持续释放利好，国内股市在地缘局势动荡下呈 现一定韧性创业板指、恒生指数逆势上行，上证、深证、恒科震荡收 跌。板块上热点轮动持续，稀土永磁、石油石化、军工及黄金板块活跃 ...

周度报告-黄金 中东军事冲突升级，黄金价格走强 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 15 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 3.7%至 3432 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.4%，通胀预 期 2.29%，实际利率降至 2.11%，美元指数跌 1.01%至 98.2，标普 500 指数跌 0.39%，离岸人民币小幅升值，沪金溢价收窄。 贵 金 属 金价先抑后扬，突破 3400 美元关口，中美高层伦敦谈判，双方达 成贸易框架，并将汇报给领导人等待进展，贸易问题短期没有继 续升级。但随后中东地区地缘政治局势升温，以色列袭击伊朗引 发避险情绪增加，原油价格大涨，金价突破上行，短期市场交易 重点转为以色列和伊朗局势升级，对金价构成利多。且原油价格 大涨也在未来增加了美国的通胀压力，5 月美国 CPI 同比从 2.3% 回升至 2.4%，低于预期的 2.5%，环比增速仅 0.1%，核心 CPI 维 持在 2.8%，环比增速 0.1%，均低于预期，此前能源价格走弱导致 美国通胀下行，目前原油价格已经收复失地，且关税的影响也存 在滞后性，后续美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have initiated a new upward trend, driven by increased market risk aversion and global central bank purchases [1][4][6] Group 1: Gold Price Performance - During the week of June 9 to June 13, international gold prices rose for four consecutive trading days, with COMEX gold futures and London gold spot prices both increasing over 3% [1][3] - As of June 13, COMEX gold futures closed at $3,452.6 per ounce, up 1.47% for the day and 3.18% for the week, while London gold spot prices closed at $3,433.35 per ounce, up 1.40% for the day and 3.74% for the week [3] - Since 2025, COMEX gold futures have increased by 30.73%, and London gold has risen by 30.84% [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have heightened market risk aversion [3][4] - Recent weak economic data from the U.S., including declines in the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs and lower-than-expected CPI data, have contributed to concerns about the U.S. economy, benefiting gold prices [4] Group 3: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, with gold now accounting for approximately 20% of global official reserves, surpassing the euro's 16% [5] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 7.383 million ounces as of May 2025, marking a continuous increase over the past seven months [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to remain in a high-level fluctuation pattern, driven by persistent market risk aversion [6][7] - The geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies are likely to support gold prices, with central bank purchases providing a solid foundation for future price increases [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, alongside other factors such as U.S. monetary policy and persistent global inflation [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Increase - The key catalyst for the recent rise in gold prices is the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which has led to a rapid increase in risk aversion among investors [3]. - Other significant factors influencing gold prices include the U.S. fiscal situation, with concerns over expanding fiscal deficits and the weakening of the dollar and U.S. Treasury credit [3][4]. - Historical analysis indicates that the duration and uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts significantly impact gold price movements, with central bank gold purchases and inflation also playing crucial roles [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing gold prices during clear risk events and should consider buying on dips instead [6][7]. - The difficulty of short-term timing in gold investments is highlighted, with recommendations for long-term strategies such as dollar-cost averaging [7][9]. - Despite potential risks, including a possible economic recovery that could strengthen the dollar, the overall sentiment remains that gold has substantial long-term investment potential due to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [7][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term investment opportunity in gold is supported by its role as a hedge against extreme risks, including geopolitical conflicts and economic instability [9]. - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue, providing further support for gold prices [9]. - The ongoing uncertainties in U.S. fiscal policy and geopolitical tensions are likely to maintain gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in the medium to long term [9].

Group 1 - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in WTI crude oil futures, which surged nearly 14%, and COMEX gold, which rose nearly 2% before experiencing a pullback [1] - The stock markets in multiple countries have reacted negatively, with the three major US stock indices closing lower, while sectors such as oil, gold, military industry, and nuclear pollution prevention in the A-share market showed strength [1] - The Middle East situation is expected to have a limited impact on international gold prices, as the market's risk aversion sentiment may suppress gold prices, although a continued depreciation of the US dollar could support gold prices [4][5] Group 2 - The Middle East region accounts for approximately 15% of global methanol production capacity, with Iran being the largest producer, contributing about 8.6% of global capacity in 2023 [4] - The military sector is viewed positively by several analysts, especially with the upcoming 55th Paris Air Show scheduled for June 16-22, 2025, where significant Chinese military aircraft will be showcased [5] - Analysts believe that the impact of the Middle East situation on global stock markets will weaken, and the A-share market is expected to stabilize, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing support from moving averages [5][6]

（1）周一开盘，市场的交易基调是冲突"加剧"还是"缓和"？ 每经记者｜肖芮冬 每经编辑｜赵云 刚过去的交易周（6月9日~6月13日），A股前4天波澜不惊，周五突然放量下跌。 原因也很简单粗暴——以色列和伊朗打了起来，受恐慌情绪影响，全球资本市场突然进入"避险模式"，A股也没例外。 周五当天，原油、黄金、军工等板块顺势走强，一定程度上打断了不少板块原本的上攻节奏，如金融、新消费、游戏、传媒等。 而这个周末，相关消息仍在发酵，势必令各方疑虑： （2）如果按"加剧"来演绎行情，能持续几天？ 看似是"猜大小"的随机事件，其实在历史行情里有迹可循。本文就带大家回顾与当下情况最相似的案例—— 3年前俄乌冲突刚爆发时，A股是怎么走的？ （声明：本文意在探讨地缘冲突初期，情绪面主导行情时，市场表现可能存在的一些共性；并不直接比较两起冲突本身，也无意预测事件走向。） 2022年2月24日（周四），俄罗斯对乌克兰发起特别军事行动，俄乌冲突正式爆发。截至目前，冲突仍在持续。 当天起，全球大宗商品开启避险模式。原油、黄金日内收长上影线；随后持续上涨，于当年3月7日、8日见顶回落。 而与大宗商品不同，A股彼时（受冲突引起的）恐慌情绪未 ...

Group 1 - Israel launched a large-scale attack on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and missile factories, which may lead to a prolonged operation to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons [1] - The attack caused market turmoil, with U.S. stock index futures declining, oil prices surging, gold prices rising, and the U.S. dollar index strengthening [1] - Analysts noted that the geopolitical conflict could lead to increased inflation expectations, impacting fixed income markets and potentially pushing the Federal Reserve towards a more hawkish stance [1][2] Group 2 - The conflict has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar, while safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and gold have also strengthened [2] - The global stock market, which has seen a 30% increase in the MSCI global index this year, may face further declines as the conflict acts as a catalyst for price corrections [2] - Defensive sectors such as utilities, energy stocks, and defense companies are expected to perform well due to concerns over potential supply disruptions in the oil market [2] Group 3 - The scale and impact of the attack remain unclear, leading to limited market volatility despite a rush into safe-haven assets [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical conflict adds to the fragile market sentiment, with the potential for either a quick de-escalation or an escalation that threatens oil transport routes [3]

中东冲突加剧，避险情绪飙升，黄金目标3500？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分析 相关链接 ...