Market Observation - A-shares have seen a continuous decline in trading volume, dropping below 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive days, indicating a market waiting for a clear signal to break the current deadlock [1][2]. Factors Compressing Trading Space - Analysts suggest that the lack of strong new catalysts is compressing trading space, with the market currently in a "conflicted period" due to high valuations and increased uncertainty [2]. - External disturbances, such as recent fluctuations in international trade, have led to a decline in risk appetite, particularly affecting technology sectors reliant on external demand [2]. - Internal market structure and valuation pressures are evident, with a rapid rotation among sectors and a lack of clear investment themes [2]. Capital Flow Revealing Market Sentiment - Current capital flows indicate a cautious and defensive market sentiment, with funds shifting from high-valuation growth sectors to low-valuation defensive sectors [3]. - Defensive sectors like banking have strengthened, while growth sectors such as power equipment and electronics have seen declines [3]. - Despite some net buying in technology stocks, the overall trend shows a weakening, while low-volatility dividend sectors have maintained slight inflows during market fluctuations [3]. Market Dynamics and Fund Structure - The overall reduction in trading volume does not imply a complete withdrawal of funds; rather, it reflects a differentiated capital structure with passive inflows and active withdrawals [4]. - Stock ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, providing a "supporting" effect for market liquidity, while margin financing balances have decreased due to external uncertainties [4]. - Despite short-term pressures, there is optimism for the medium term, as long-term funds like insurance and pensions are gradually increasing their equity allocations [4]. Signals Awaited for Market Breakthrough - The market is looking for key signals, particularly in terms of policy expectations and performance verification, to break the current volume stagnation [6]. - Internally, clarity on medium to long-term planning and third-quarter performance is crucial, while externally, improvements in global liquidity and international trade relations are key variables affecting market sentiment [6]. - Investors are advised to focus on stable asset allocation, risk diversification, and long-term participation, prioritizing assets with solid fundamentals and reasonable valuations [6].

避险情绪缓和贵金属回调短期转入震荡整理 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格编号：Z0016628） 电话：020-88818051 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 行情导读：上周五以来随着各国地缘政治局势有所缓和，美国贸易摩擦担忧降温，各方多次提示市场 "过热"风险，贵金属结束持续上涨趋势并自历史高位回调。周一日盘，沪金主力合约 AU2512 延续周 五夜盘走势整体呈偏弱震荡，尽管期间有所回升但尾端再次走低远离 1000 元/克的历史高点，收盘价 为 970.32 元/克，跌幅 1.63%，结束"五连阳"；沪银主力合约 AG2512 受到资金情绪影响回调幅度更 大一度跌超 4%，收盘报 11742 元/千克，跌 3.99%。 数据来源：文华财经 驱动分析一：海外地缘政治和贸易紧张局势缓和，避险情绪降温 上周在中美贸易紧张局势持续、美国政府关门发酵、美联储官员释放"鸽派"信号加上美国地方 银行"爆雷"等多重因素下，市场风险偏好进一步降低，投资者在配置惯性下踊跃增持贵金属，驱动 贵金属价格不断创出历史新高。但上周五以来，一是法国总理勒科尔尼在国民议会经通过了两 ...

Group 1: US Economic Overview - The US economy continues to show a "high growth, high differentiation" pattern, with Q3 GDP growth forecasted at 3.9% driven by consumption, technology, and exports [2] - Private consumption growth reached 3.5%, with significant increases in goods (4.7%) and services (2.7%) reflecting strong consumer momentum supported by the stock market and fiscal easing [2] - Investment in technology remains robust, with equipment investment growing at 8.6% and intellectual property investment at 5.4%, indicating ongoing capital expenditure in AI-related sectors [2] Group 2: Regional Bank Risks - Recent risk events involving Zion and Western Alliance banks have raised concerns about the stability of US regional banks, with reported credit fraud totaling approximately $100 million [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Performance - The market is currently dominated by risk-averse sentiment, with gold prices reaching a new high for the year, while US Treasury yields and the dollar have retreated [4] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.2%, driven by strong corporate earnings that exceeded market expectations, although concerns about regional bank risks persist [4] - Despite a potential easing of liquidity from the Federal Reserve, US stock valuations are at historical highs, suggesting a risk of slight corrections amid international uncertainties [4] Group 4: Gold Market Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks, the resumption of the Fed's easing cycle, and strong inflows into gold ETFs [5] Group 5: China Economic Conditions - Domestic demand continues to face pressure, with durable goods consumption and real estate transactions showing significant year-on-year declines, particularly in the housing market [7] - In the first three weeks of October, new home transactions in 30 major cities fell by 26.9%, while second-hand home transactions dropped by 32% [7] - Export growth remains resilient but is showing signs of marginal slowdown, with container throughput at Chinese ports reflecting strong performance despite recent declines [7] Group 6: Inflation and Fiscal Data - September CPI and PPI inflation figures show signs of improvement, with core CPI rising to 1.0%, the highest in 19 months, while PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.3% [8] - National public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year-on-year in September, with tax revenue growing by 8.7%, indicating a recovery in fiscal health [9] Group 7: Financial Data Trends - Financing demand remains weak, with a decline in both public and private sector financing needs, while M2 growth has significantly slowed to 8.4% [10][11] - The government has announced measures to revitalize local government debt, increasing the limit by 100 billion yuan for 2024 [9] Group 8: Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with risk aversion prevailing and potential for upward movement contingent on upcoming US-China negotiations [13][14] - The Hong Kong market has seen significant declines, driven by similar concerns as the A-share market, with a focus on the impact of external uncertainties [14]

避险情绪趋缓 黄金迎来修正 最后，金价走高有利于化债。当前各国债台高筑，美国的国债规模不断创新高，后续美国政府结束停摆，大概率将进一步提高债务上限。美国的黄金持有量 是全球最大的，约为8133.5吨，折合2.615亿盎司；不过这些黄金在美国官方的资产负债表上的账面价值只有110亿美元（按1973年设定的42.22美元/盎司计 算）；当前市场黄金价格在4300美元/盎司，其实际价值早已超过1万亿美元。黄金价格的上涨意味着美国负债率的下降，因此从化债的角度来看，黄金价格 仍然具有上行潜力。 黄金牛市未改 回调就是机会 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前黄金市场支撑其价格上行的众多因素仍未改变，黄金仍然处在牛市当中，后续黄金在多重利好因素作用下， 向上挑战4600美元将是大概率事件。当下在贸易风险有所降温的情况下，金价有所回调，或许将为投资者提供较好的进场机会。 重要声明：上述内容及观点由第三方合作平台智昇提供，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资者据此操作，风险自担。 利多支撑犹在 黄金牛市未改 本轮黄金牛市存在众多的支撑因素。首先，美联储在美国就业市场走软的情况下，重启降息周期。当下，美国的失业率有所上行 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a day of low trading volume with the ChiNext index leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.98%, and the ChiNext index surged by 1.98% [1] - Total trading volume in A-shares reached 1.75 trillion yuan, marking the lowest level since August 8 [1] Gold Market Analysis - Gold stocks ETF (517400) closed down by 4.71% [2] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to short-term adjustments, a cooling of risk aversion due to improved US-China relations, and profit-taking by speculative funds after a rapid price increase [4][5] - Last week, gold prices peaked at $4,380.79 per ounce before retreating, driven by heightened market concerns over high precious metal prices [4] Future Outlook for Gold - The long-term logic for gold remains unchanged, with potential opportunities for positioning during price corrections due to the onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, increasing macroeconomic policy uncertainty abroad, and a global trend towards de-dollarization [6] - The Federal Reserve's recent indications suggest a possible end to balance sheet reduction in the coming months, with a 98.9% probability of a rate cut in October according to CME FedWatch [6] - The ongoing US government shutdown and political polarization are expected to continue affecting market dynamics and increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6] Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 74.06 million ounces by the end of September, marking the 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation [7] - The trend of diversifying international reserves and adjusting gold holdings is ongoing, driven by challenges to the US dollar credit system and increasing demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical tensions [7] Investment Opportunities in Gold ETFs - Despite the recent price adjustments, gold still presents investment value, with recommendations to consider gradual investments in gold stocks ETF (517400) and gold fund ETF (518800) during price dips [8] - The gold stocks ETF tracks a diversified index of 50 companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, while the gold fund ETF directly invests in physical gold, with a recent increase in scale by over 5 billion yuan [8]

香港第一金PPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金PPLI外汇，DYJPPLI 空单策略 反弹至区间上沿附近时考虑4280-4293美元附近，目标看看4215-4220美元，下破可继续持有。 多单策略 回调至区间下沿附近时考虑，4185-4208美元附近，目标看4275-4280美元，上破可继续持有 当前市场的主要多空因素 要理解金价为何在此震荡，并判断后续方向，你需要关注以下几个核心因素： 短期调整压力 技术面超买：黄金在连续上涨9周后，多项技术指标显示市场处于极端超买状态，本身存在强烈的技术性调整需求。上周五金价从历史高点暴跌近200美元， 就是一个明确的信号。 美元反弹：美元指数在上周五触底回升，并在本周一延续强势，给以美元计价的黄金带来了直接压力。 长期支撑动力 尽管短期承压，但推动黄金上涨的底层逻辑依然坚固： 美联储降息预期：市场对美联储在10月底会议降息25个基点的预期接近100%。这是支撑金价最核心的动力之一。 避险情绪仍在：包括美国政府持续停摆、地缘政治紧张以及美国地区银行暴露的信贷风险在内的多重因素，仍在激发市场的避险需求。 长期趋势完好：从更长周期看，全球央行的持续购金以及"去 ...

关税扰动减弱，贵金属回调压力加大 摘 要： 美国政府停摆叠加国际政治动荡，避险情绪推动黄金不断创出 新高。但是在黄金创出 4392 高点之后，短期调整的压力加大。目 前美国政府依然处于停摆过程中，关于美国经济的数据无法进一步 获得，但是从美联储官员的表述来看，市场基本对 10 月份继续降 息已经有所定价，后续市场更多关注的是地缘避险因素，及美国政 府的内部分歧和博弈情况。 美东时间 10 月 1 日 0 时，美国联邦政府因资金用尽，时隔近 七年再度"停摆"。数十万联邦雇员将被迫无薪休假，部分公共服 务或暂停、延迟，经济数据发布将受到一定影响。但是从美联储官 员讲话及相关机构数据来看，市场基本对 10 月降息完全定价。年 内降息 2 次，甚至明年继续降息目前依然是市场主流。美国总统特 朗普在最新的采访中继续释放缓和信号，暗示大门仍敞开着。特朗 普政府正在低调地放松多项关税政策，近几周来已将数十种产品从 其所谓的"对等关税"中豁免，并在各国与美国达成贸易协议时提 出愿意将更多产品排除在关税之外。关税之战略有缓和，后续进展 情况，依然需要持续观察。 离岸人民币汇率主要被动跟随美元指数波动，节假日过后，由 于国内消费 ...

黄金突然闪崩，给市场的热情浇了一盆冷水，上周五金价快速下跌，人民币金价跌40元/克，伦敦金跌幅达300美元左右。 这一次，黄金上涨从8月15日维持了三个月以上，2280美元涨到4380美元，涨幅达1100美元，连续九周连创新高。 理智在疯狂面前一文不值，有人说：勇敢者先享受世界。而我认为过于激进的偏执不一定是勇者者的表面。 接下来，美联储利率决议将成为新的焦点，美国政府停摆导致多项数据公布推迟，避险情绪的不断升温推动黄金天天创新高。 早上有朋友问，黄金这次是调整还是中场休息，这一次回调的幅度是过去三个月以来最大的一次，而关键问题是会不会延续，尤其是凌面反弹的高点能不 能守住。 今天，我认为暂时先观望，看欧盘强弱再定调，牛市多急跌关键在于延续，看多但不追多，而看回调一定要谨慎，反弹后4280-85的范围内可以考虑短线 回调，日内多空看位置，长期布局看方向。 白银，黄金，铂金为代表的贵金属都涨疯了，白银今年涨了80%，黄金达到60以上，而铂金也是刷新历史高点，市场开始缺货缺料，大批人无脑涌入贵金 属市场。 2011年上一轮牛市和今天一样，疯狂到让人后怕，谁敢提示风险谁敢劝人下车，都将成为罪人，我对牛市的观点没变， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, after the significant adjustment of precious metal prices on the night of last Friday, they may turn to a volatile trend due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the mitigation of political turmoil in Japan. However, due to the ongoing US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October, precious metal prices are unlikely to continue to decline. Silver may face further adjustment risks if the physical shortage in London eases [6]. - In the long - term, the gold price is likely to continue to rise as the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, US debt is unsustainable, and central banks around the world continue to buy gold. Long - term investors are advised to go long on dips [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Review - On October 17, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 3.82% at 999.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.06% at 12,249 yuan/kilogram [3][5]. b) Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: From October 16 to 17, London spot gold rose 3.2% to 4360.01 dollars/ounce, London spot silver rose 2.6% to 54.21 dollars/ounce. COMEX gold rose 3.2% to 4372.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 2.3% to 53.15 dollars/ounce. Shanghai gold futures (AU2512) rose 3.5% to 999.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures (AG2512) rose 1.9% to 12249.00 yuan/kilogram [5]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price changed from - 1.82 yuan/gram on October 16 to - 2.8 yuan/gram on October 17, with a change rate of 53.8%. The spread of silver TD - SHFE active price changed from - 27 yuan/kilogram to - 29 yuan/kilogram, with a change rate of 7.4% [5]. c) Position and Inventory Data - **Position Changes**: From October 16 to 17, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold increased by 1.85% to 332,808 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43% to 66,059 contracts. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver increased by 0.97% to 72,318 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21% to 20,042 contracts [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: From October 16 to 17, SHFE gold inventory increased by 4.50% to 84,606 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.33% to 920,103 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.10% to 39,107,098 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.53% to 509,459,321 troy ounces [5]. d) Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - On October 17, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.09, the US dollar index was 98.56, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.46%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, the VIX was 20.78, the S&P 500 was 6664.01, and NYWEX crude oil was 57.25 [5].