上证报中国证券网讯 "在当前复杂的经济形势下，产业发展与投资需要坚定的信念与'耐心资本'的长期支持。"6月6日，在"融通创新，向'中'聚力"——产业 龙头武汉行暨城市投行投资对接会上，前润控股集团有限公司董事长向阳博士表示，具备长远视野的"耐心资本"模式，最契合当下经济高质量发展和产业转 型升级的内在需求。 向阳进一步表示，当前AI产业竞争已进入以人才为核心驱动力的关键阶段。武汉作为科教重镇，拥有90余所高等院校和超过130万在校大学生，其丰沛的人 才资源为AI项目落地提供了得天独厚的沃土。前润集团期待将其在AI领域的深厚积累与武汉的人才优势相结合，积极推动相关项目在武汉乃至湖北省落地 生根，为区域经济创新发展注入强劲动能。 在扩大内需、提振消费的政策导向下，符合消费者深度体验需求的文旅产业迎来快速发展机遇。向阳特别对上证报和湖北省驻沪办去年组织的襄阳考察活动 表示感谢。得益于良好的营商环境与合作契机，前润旗下文旅项目"鹿尔花园"在襄阳的进展顺利且迅速，即将迎来阶段性成果。向阳同时宣布，"鹿尔花 园"项目将于近期正式启动在武汉的选址工作，致力于早日为武汉市民打造高品质的休闲体验空间，为这座英雄城市增添新的活力 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the public fund industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Public funds in China have core advantages over bank wealth management subsidiaries and insurance asset management, including high specialization, flexible transparency, and market-oriented operation mechanisms. The long-term core competitiveness lies in active equity investment, supported by in-depth industry research and diversified strategy tools [2] - The governance of companies is improving, and increased dividends from listed companies are fostering long-term capital. Public funds are expected to become the core managers of long-term funds, which will enhance market resilience and risk resistance [2] - Public funds are advancing towards platform-based, integrated, and multi-strategy development to achieve high-quality growth. This includes the integration of IT systems for comprehensive data analysis and resource collaboration, enhancing decision-making efficiency [2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Positioning - Public funds are positioned as the "vanguard" of the asset management industry, with a management scale of approximately 31.77 trillion yuan, ranking second in the industry [11] 2. Development Path - The overall scale of the public fund industry is stabilizing and recovering, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.1% from 2016 to 2024, compared to other asset management products [5] 3. Market Opportunities - The total assets of Chinese residents are estimated to be around 550 trillion yuan, with financial assets accounting for approximately 32%, indicating a growing trend towards capital market investments [4] 4. Structural Changes - As of the first quarter of 2025, the scale of money market funds and bond funds has expanded to 13.33 trillion yuan and 10.10 trillion yuan, respectively, while mixed funds have seen a decline of about 15% since the end of 2023 [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The demand for high-end electronic fabrics is accelerating, leading to a new round of competition among fiberglass companies. The shortage of low thermal expansion coefficient (Low CTE) glass fabric raw materials and the surge in order demand have resulted in significantly extended delivery times for BT materials, confirming the ongoing supply-demand imbalance in high-end electronic fabrics. The rapid development of the AI industry is driving hardware upgrades, increasing the demand for high-speed, high-frequency PCB boards, which in turn raises the performance requirements for upstream electronic fabrics [4] - The report suggests focusing on companies with existing or potential layouts in high-end electronic fabrics, such as Honghe Technology, Zhongcai Technology, and China Jushi [4] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index (Shenwan) rose by 0.2%, while the cement, glass fiber, and renovation materials indices fell by 0.2%, 0.2%, and rose by 0.6% respectively. The top five gainers included Zhongqi New Materials (+20.5%) and Honghe Technology (+17.1%) [9] 2. Industry Dynamics - In May, the average price of new homes in 100 major cities in China rose by 0.30% month-on-month to 16,815 RMB per square meter, while the average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.71% year-on-year [14] - The sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies in the first five months of 2025 was 1,443.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8% [14] - The balance of real estate loans in RMB at the end of the first quarter of 2025 was 53.54 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.04% [14] 3. Data Tracking 3.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide was 367.8 RMB per ton, down 3.0 RMB per ton month-on-month and down 6.3% year-on-year [15] - The cement inventory ratio was 65.7%, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month [15] 3.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass was 1,370.3 RMB per ton, down 24.6 RMB per ton month-on-month and down 409.5 RMB per ton year-on-year [32] 3.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass was 13.6 RMB per square meter, down 0.1 RMB per square meter month-on-month [37] 3.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn was 4,705.0 RMB per ton, unchanged month-on-month and up 40.0 RMB per ton year-on-year [43] 3.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber was 72.5 RMB per kilogram, unchanged month-on-month and down 5.0 RMB per kilogram year-on-year [46]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is currently experiencing supply tightness due to various factors, including the suspension of mining in Myanmar and geopolitical tensions affecting production in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The market is sensitive to any supply-related news, which can lead to significant price fluctuations. Supply Situation - The tin supply has been under pressure since the suspension of mining in Myanmar on August 1, 2023, leading to a tight global supply situation. The import volume of tin ore to China has sharply declined since the second quarter of last year due to depleting inventories [1][3] - The Alphamin Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is a significant source of tin for China, has faced production interruptions due to local conflicts, resulting in a supply gap of approximately 2,000 to 3,000 tons [3][4] - The processing fees for tin concentrate in China are at historical lows, indicating severe profit margin pressures for smelting companies [4][6] Production and Processing Challenges - The production of refined tin in China has decreased by 2.37% month-on-month and 11.24% year-on-year as of May 2025, with smelting plants operating at reduced capacity due to raw material shortages [6][7] - The operating rate of smelting enterprises in key tin-producing provinces like Yunnan and Jiangxi remains low, with some companies entering seasonal maintenance or production cuts due to raw material shortages and cost pressures [6][7] Demand Dynamics - The demand for tin is expected to face challenges as the market enters a seasonal slowdown, with potential declines in consumption in the second half of the year [8][13] - The semiconductor industry, which has been a significant driver of tin demand, is experiencing cyclical changes, with sales expected to slow down after a peak in late 2024 [9][13] - The solar energy sector has seen increased demand for tin solder, but the growth rate may slow down after the implementation of new market rules for distributed solar projects [11][12] Future Outlook - The tin market is anticipated to remain slightly tight in the short term, with limited increases in supply expected in June. However, the situation may improve as the supply from African mines and the resumption of mining in Myanmar are monitored [7][13] - Long-term demand for tin may see an uptick if the AI industry continues to grow, potentially leading to a mismatch between supply growth and demand resilience [13]

Group 1 - A-shares opened lower but strengthened throughout the morning, with all major indices turning positive, particularly in the computer, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical sectors [1] - Notable stock performances included ShenZhou Cell rising over 10% and Lanqi Technology increasing over 7%, with several other companies also showing significant gains [1] - The South China Science and Technology Chip ETF (588890) and the South China Science and Technology 100 ETF (588900) both rose nearly 2% in early trading, indicating active market participation and positive capital inflow [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Securities indicated that the electronic semiconductor sector may be entering a comprehensive recovery phase in 2025, with an expected improvement in industry competition and profitability [1] - CITIC Securities noted that the AI industry in China has gained sustained attention due to the DeepSeek breakthrough effect, with anticipated releases of DeepSeek R2 and GPT-5 in the second half of the year [1] - The South China Science and Technology Chip ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's semiconductor index, which includes companies involved in semiconductor materials, design, manufacturing, and testing [2] Group 3 - The South China Science and Technology 100 ETF tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's 100 index, reflecting the performance of medium-sized, liquid companies on the STAR Market [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the South China Science and Technology 100 ETF include Hengxuan Technology, BeiGene, and Ruichuang Micro-Nano, among others [3]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.53%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.54%. Companies like Hansoh Pharmaceutical and CSPC Pharmaceutical increased by nearly 4%, while NetEase rose by nearly 3% [1] - Cathay Securities reports that the AI industry cycle may lead the Hong Kong stock market upward amid the transition of old and new driving forces. The technology sector is expected to benefit significantly from the AI narrative, with performance likely to accelerate [2][3] - The influx of capital from mainland China is strengthening pricing power in the Hong Kong market, with foreign capital gradually improving its low-position allocation in Chinese assets [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the recent return of global capital is positively impacting the valuation recovery of Hong Kong assets, which still hold high allocation value in the medium to long term [3] - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio has risen from approximately 7.5 times to the current 10.5 times, aligning with the ten-year average, indicating that valuation recovery is ongoing [3] - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to see a significant revival in 2025, providing a crucial window for domestic companies to raise foreign capital [3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market is evolving into a global technology capital hub, connecting thriving mainland tech companies with global capital seeking quality targets [4] - The recent trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong is driven by a combination of outbound strategies, regulatory conveniences, and improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market [4] - The attractiveness of the Hong Kong market is increasing due to the continuous improvement in asset supply structure and quality, as well as liquidity trends amid the return of overseas capital [4] Group 4 - The Hong Kong government has implemented several supportive policies for the stock market, including lowering stamp duty and optimizing trading mechanisms to enhance market liquidity and attractiveness [5] - Dividend-paying assets are gaining appeal due to their high returns and low volatility, with the ETF interconnectivity system broadening investment channels [5] - Amid global geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions, Hong Kong's dividend indices are expected to become a favored allocation direction for medium to long-term funds due to their resilience and stability [5]

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观 】 全球变局：锚定"确定性"——国泰海通2025年中期宏观展望 全球进入货币体系重构时代： 全球经济体系重构的根源在于信任基础的变化，基于国际关系变化的信任 下降，会导致整个全球货币体系继续分化，重塑资产价格。"去美元化"确实在缓慢进行，主要是非经济因 素主导，尤其是国际关系变化、各国信任度的下降。在这个背景下，黄金的长期牛市需要站在更长历史维 度看待。 各国之间信任度变化的趋势很难改变，这也决定了本轮黄金的牛市是长期的、历史性的变化。 长期来看，只有美国经济纠偏能力还在，美元也不会崩溃。 但 中短期，需要关注美元信用可能进一步下 降。 美债利率实际利率、通胀预期、名义利率存在上行风险， 美元存在继续贬值风险，黄金上涨会加 速，日元、欧元、英镑等国际货币不排除进一步升值。 国内宏观：求诸于内，自胜者强。 中长期来看，我国经济具有较大潜力，不过，短期经济的需求仍然需 要提振。 2025 年要完成 5% 左右的增长目标，仍需积极政策继续发力。 风险提示 ： 稳增长政策落地进度不及预期，国际贸易环境超预期恶化 。 我们认为下半年宏观政策继续边际加码，尤其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector showed mild recovery in May, with the manufacturing PMI rising by 0.5 points to 49.5, slightly above the seasonal average. However, this increase is not strong considering the low base from April due to tariff impacts. The absolute value of 49.5 is only better than May 2019 and May 2023 in the past decade [1][7][8]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - In May, the manufacturing sectors that improved can be categorized into three types: emerging manufacturing (computer communication electronics, electrical machinery), essential consumer agricultural products, and the petrochemical industry chain (petrochemical refining, chemicals, synthetic fibers, and plastics) [2][9]. - The macroeconomic clues behind these improvements include: the cancellation of high tariffs leading to better export orders, the continued effects of domestic "two new" policies, and demand growth from the AI industry. The sectors experiencing significant downturns are mainly in the construction chain and optional consumer goods [2][9]. - The electrical machinery sector is leading in terms of prosperity, with a PMI above 55, benefiting from rapid growth in new energy and new energy vehicles, as well as policy dividends from "two new" initiatives [3][11]. Emerging Industries - Emerging industries such as new generation information technology, new materials, high-end equipment, and energy-saving and environmental protection sectors showed improved prosperity in May. This is attributed to the rebound in external demand and domestic policy support [3][12]. - The biological industry remains the weakest, with a significant decline in export orders continuing from April [3][12]. Construction Sector Insights - The construction industry in May is characterized by "infrastructure improvement and real estate drag." Civil engineering construction saw a continuous improvement for two months, while the real estate chain showed weakness across all stages [4][15]. - The construction activity index decreased by 0.9 points to 51.0 in May, indicating a slowdown in the real estate sector [14][16]. Service Sector Performance - The service sector saw a slight improvement, with the PMI rising by 0.1 points to 50.2. Key drivers include travel-related sectors benefiting from the May Day holiday and a rebound in the water transport industry [6][17]. - The information technology service sector continues to perform well, driven by trends such as "AI+" and online consumption [6][17]. Summary of Key Insights - The "two new" policies are concentrated in sectors benefiting from tariff reductions, such as electrical machinery and computer electronics, which currently show high prosperity [5][6]. - The new generation information technology sector leads in emerging industries, while the service sector's IT services maintain a leading position [5][6]. - External uncertainties continue to impact sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology, as indicated by their performance data [5][6]. - The construction sector is experiencing a rise in prosperity due to accelerated issuance of special bonds and project implementations, although upstream material sectors remain under pressure due to real estate slowdowns [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi, founded by Lei Jun, is transitioning from a smartphone company to a hardcore technology firm, focusing on self-developed chips to challenge the semiconductor industry [1][4][6]. Group 1: Xiaomi's Historical Context and Strategy - Xiaomi's history reflects Lei Jun's ability to capture market opportunities, starting with the launch of high-cost performance smartphones during the mobile internet boom [4][6]. - The company achieved significant market penetration in India, capturing 26% of the market by 2019 through localized operations and competitive pricing [5]. - The decision to enter the electric vehicle market coincided with a critical point in China's EV adoption, with Xiaomi's SU7 becoming a top seller in its category [5][6]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The recent U.S. semiconductor export controls create a challenging environment for Chinese companies, but also present opportunities for domestic firms to fill the void left by American companies [8][10]. - The demand for AI technology is surging, which aligns with Xiaomi's strategic move to develop its own chips, indicating a significant market potential [11]. Group 3: Technical Feasibility of Chip Development - Xiaomi's self-developed chip, the Xuanjie O1, claims to achieve advanced 3nm process technology, suggesting a strong design capability [13][14]. - However, the manufacturing of high-performance chips remains a significant challenge, with only a few companies capable of such production, primarily TSMC [14][15]. - The current state of China's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, particularly with SMIC, indicates a gap in achieving the same level of production efficiency as TSMC [14][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While Xiaomi's design capabilities are promising, the journey towards self-sufficient chip manufacturing is just beginning, requiring advancements in domestic manufacturing technology [16][15]. - The ability to maintain momentum in the semiconductor space will depend on Xiaomi's transition from a software and marketing-focused company to a robust manufacturing entity [16].

Group 1 - The core feature of the 2025 fiscal policy is the significant "front-loading" of fiscal debt financing and expenditure structure, which has stabilized economic performance in the first half of the year [1][2][4] - From January to April 2025, the broad fiscal expenditure growth rate reached 7.2%, with a spending progress of 28.4%, exceeding the five-year average of 28.2%, indicating strong fiscal support for the economy [2][8] - The growth in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily supported by the rapid issuance of government debt, particularly treasury bonds, with net financing of 4.8 trillion yuan from January to April, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year [3][21] Group 2 - The fiscal policy for 2025 is more proactive, with a planned net financing scale of 13.86 trillion yuan for government debt, of which 6.3 trillion yuan has been financed by the end of May, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued [4][32] - The issuance of treasury bonds has accelerated, with 42.7% of the budget target achieved by May 24, 2025, significantly higher than the average of 16.9% from 2020 to 2024 [3][21] - The government is expected to maintain high levels of net financing through the third quarter, with projections of 2.3 trillion yuan in the second quarter and 3.8 trillion yuan in the third quarter [4][35] Group 3 - The government may introduce incremental policies to smooth fiscal expenditure and ensure the achievement of annual economic goals, especially given uncertainties in economic recovery in the second half of the year [5][37] - Policy tools such as budgetary and non-budgetary measures will be utilized to stabilize economic fluctuations, with a focus on service consumption, fertility policies, and infrastructure investment as key areas for fiscal support [6][50] - The government aims to enhance consumer spending by reducing burdens and increasing income, with significant potential for recovery in service consumption, which currently stands at only 87.7% of historical trends [50][51]