宏观研究 宏观快评 2025 年 12 月 08 日 华创证券研究所 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 等待"两大会"召开——政策周观察第 58 期 近一周，政策出台不多，主要有以下内容。短期内，关注中央政治局会议和中 央经济工作会议"两大会"召开。 1、12 月 1 日，《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《推进党的自我革命 要做到"五个进一步到位"》。文章中，习近平总书记指出"对党的自我革命认 识要进一步到位……我们党进行自我革命，刀刃向内、激浊扬清、刮骨疗毒， 非但不会影响党的形象和威信，反而能够提高党的形象和威信；非但不会挫伤 党员干部的积极性，反而能够更广泛更充分地调动党员干部的积极性；非但不 会影响经济社会发展，反而能够为高质量发展提供坚强政治保证"，"党员干部 增强党性要进一步到位"，"权力规范运行要进一步到位"，"从严监督执纪要进 一步到位"，"落实管党治党责任要进一步到位"。 2、资本市场：1）12 月 5 日，国家金融监管总局调整保险公司相关业务风险 因子，"针对保险公司投资的沪深 300 指数成分股、中证红利低波动 100 指数 成分股以及科创板股票的风险因子，根据持仓时间进行了差异 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of "stabilizing the real estate market" as a key support for the new urbanization strategy, aiming for high-quality development in the real estate sector and integrating it with urban renewal and safety measures [1] Group 1: Stabilizing the Real Estate Market - "Stabilizing the real estate market" and the "good housing" initiative are complementary, addressing diverse housing consumption needs and enhancing market activity [2] - The "good housing" initiative aims to meet the demands of urbanization, with a focus on safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence in housing consumption [2] - Local governments have implemented 556 policies in the first three quarters of the year to stabilize the market, including adjustments to purchase restrictions and support for talent [2] Group 2: Urban Renewal and New Urbanization - Urban renewal is evolving from simple renovation projects to a core task of new urbanization, enhancing market vitality and aligning with the "good housing" initiative [3] - There is a significant demand for updating over 30 billion square meters of existing housing, which can help eliminate safety hazards and improve urban functions [3] - The shift in focus from "building houses" to "creating spaces" reflects the necessity of enhancing property value and returning housing to its residential purpose [3] Group 3: Debt Resolution and Industry Transformation - The liquidity pressure on real estate companies remains a critical issue, and "stabilizing the real estate market" policies are facilitating debt resolution by activating transactions and broadening financing channels [4] - Innovative policies, such as lowering down payment ratios and mortgage rates, are aimed at stimulating demand and assisting companies in adjusting inventory structures [4] - The introduction of infrastructure REITs in urban renewal provides long-term low-cost financing options, supporting the debt restructuring process for real estate companies [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing implementation of "stabilizing the real estate market" policies is crucial for both short-term recovery and long-term stability in the industry [5] - The real estate sector is expected to transition towards a "high-quality, low-risk, and sustainable" development model, achieving high-quality growth [5]

Group 1 - The State Council held a meeting on December 5 to discuss further efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction, emphasizing the importance of these initiatives for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1] - The meeting highlighted the need for a higher level of quality in energy conservation and carbon reduction work, advocating for a coordinated approach and tailored strategies to promote green transformation in economic development [1] - The construction of new power systems, including wind power, photovoltaic energy, distributed photovoltaic, pumped storage, new energy storage, virtual power plants, and hydrogen industry chain development, is recommended for investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - On December 3, the State Council conducted a collective study on "promoting people-centered new urbanization," focusing on urban renewal and stabilizing the real estate market [2] - New urbanization is seen as a key driver for expanding domestic demand and promoting industrial upgrades, with significant development potential during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] - The transition of urbanization from rapid growth to stable development is acknowledged, with an emphasis on urban renewal actions that integrate safety, housing quality, and real estate market stability [2] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission released the REITs project industry scope list on December 1, covering 15 specific sub-sectors [3] - The list includes transportation infrastructure, energy infrastructure, municipal infrastructure, ecological and environmental protection infrastructure, logistics infrastructure, and more, aimed at enhancing the role of infrastructure REITs in revitalizing assets and promoting investment cycles [3] - Recommendations for investment include copper and cobalt resources, energy storage, and sectors related to the Belt and Road Initiative and national reform [3]

Group 1 - The State Council emphasized the importance of new urbanization as a key driver for expanding domestic demand and promoting industrial upgrades, highlighting the need for urban renewal actions and high-quality real estate development [2] - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission pointed out the long-term positive outlook for the economy and the capital market, while identifying issues such as the need for optimization of listed company structures and the lack of long-term funding [2] - The regulatory focus will be on supporting technological innovation, meeting diverse investor needs, and enhancing risk prevention capabilities through precise and efficient supervision [2] Group 2 - The National Financial Supervision Administration announced adjustments to risk factors for insurance companies, reducing the risk factor for certain index component stocks from 0.3 to 0.27 [3][4]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 12 月 7 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 2026 年国际金融市场或面临风高浪急的考验 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.28%，沪深 300 股指期货上涨 1.58%；焦煤期货 本周上涨 9.49%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 0.57%；股份制银行理财预期 收益率收于 1.85%，余额宝 7 天年化收益率持平于 1.00%；十年国债收益 率上行 1BP 至 1.85%，活跃十年国债期货本周下跌 0.02%。 资产配置建议 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。影响可能来自几个方面：一 是美联储货币政策的不确定性，美国总统特朗普表示，他计划在 2026 年 初公布下一任美联储主席人选，有" ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a shift from a defensive to an offensive strategy, suggesting a proactive approach to invest in high-growth sectors as market conditions improve [3][12][13] - It highlights that external and internal volatility risks have eased, with previous high-growth sectors showing signs of stabilization, and anticipates further consolidation in December [3][10] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with upward momentum, such as AI, semiconductors, new energy, non-ferrous metals, and the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board, in anticipation of a spring market rally in early 2026 [3][12][13] Group 2 - In the bond market, the report notes potential disturbances due to year-end factors, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield will remain above 1.80% in the short term [3][12] - It mentions that the bond market may face limitations due to increased profit-taking by institutions and the pending implementation of new public fund fee regulations [3][12] - The report suggests maintaining a neutral duration in bond investments while waiting for favorable conditions to emerge [3][12] Group 3 - The report provides a review of the weekly market performance, indicating that A-shares have shown signs of stabilization and recovery, particularly in growth sectors [10][12] - It notes that the Hong Kong market has also experienced a recovery, influenced by improved global market sentiment [10][12] - The report emphasizes that overseas markets are generally on an upward trend, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and improved liquidity conditions [10][12]

Group 1: New Urbanization and Economic Development - The State Council emphasizes that new urbanization is a crucial vehicle for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrades, and strengthening the domestic circulation [2] - The government plans to implement urbanization strategies tailored to local conditions, focusing on optimizing the layout of people, industries, and cities [2] - There is a commitment to address issues related to the urbanization of agricultural migrants, including employment, social security, housing, and education for their children [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission has expanded the scope of infrastructure REITs to include sports venues, commercial complexes, and urban renewal projects, marking a significant breakthrough in the types of underlying assets [4] - A total of 60 billion yuan has been allocated for the fourth batch of central budget investments aimed at creating job opportunities for low-income individuals through labor-intensive projects [5] Group 3: Financial Regulations and Market Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to relax regulations for high-quality institutions, optimizing risk control indicators and capital space to enhance capital efficiency [5] - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [6] - Insurance companies have seen a reduction in risk factors for various business lines, encouraging improved long-term investment management capabilities [7] Group 4: Cultural and Tourism Integration - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Civil Aviation Administration have issued an action plan to enhance the integration of cultural tourism and civil aviation, aiming for improved service levels and broader coverage of travel routes by 2027 [4] Group 5: International Trade and Economic Outlook - The OECD maintains its global economic growth forecasts at 3.2% for this year and 2.9% for next year, highlighting resilience but also risks such as trade barriers and fiscal vulnerabilities [9] - The U.S. private sector saw a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, indicating a stagnation in job creation and a downward trend in wage growth [10]

Group 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook - The production of major steel products has decreased, with rebar production declining faster than hot-rolled steel, and iron output continuing to fall [6][71] - Total steel inventory is rapidly decreasing, with social inventory reducing faster than factory inventory; seasonal demand for steel is also declining, particularly for rebar [6][71] - Environmental inspections have intensified, leading to a further decline in iron output, although profits from blast furnaces are recovering, limiting the drive for active production cuts [6][71] Group 2: Supply and Demand Data - Rebar small sample production is 1.8931 million tons, down 167,700 tons; hot-rolled small sample production is 3.1431 million tons, down 47,000 tons [8][69] - Daily average iron output from 247 steel mills is 2.323 million tons, down 23,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 33.1%, down 0.4% [8][69] - Demand for rebar is 2.1698 million tons, down 109,600 tons; demand for hot-rolled steel is 3.1486 million tons, down 53,600 tons [8][69] Group 3: Macro Data and Economic Indicators - China's fixed asset investment growth rate has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% for the first ten months of 2025; real estate investment has dropped by 14.7% [34] - The official manufacturing PMI for November is 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing, while the U.S. manufacturing PMI is at 52.2, showing continued recovery [34][30] - The unemployment claims in the U.S. are at 191,000, lower than the expected 220,000, indicating some stability in the labor market [30][34] Group 4: Inventory Situation - Rebar inventory has decreased by 40,500 tons in factories and 236,200 tons in social inventory, totaling a reduction of 276,700 tons; hot-rolled inventory has increased by 19,000 tons in factories but decreased by 24,500 tons in social inventory [8][69] - Overall inventory for five major materials has decreased by 35,220 tons, with factory inventory down by 64,400 tons and social inventory down by 287,800 tons [8][69] Group 5: Price and Profit Review - The average price for rebar in Shanghai is 3,220 yuan, up 30 yuan; the average price for hot-rolled steel is 3,280 yuan, up 20 yuan [12][80] - The profit for electric arc furnaces in East China is -54.51 yuan per ton, while the profit for using valley electricity is 110 yuan per ton [90][69] - The cash profit for rebar in East China is around 1,200 yuan per ton, indicating a slight profitability for long-process steel mills [23][86]

地 / 产 / 首 / 席 / 财 / 经 / 融 / 媒 / 体 2025 年 12 月8 日星期 本期 12 版总第2313 期 定价,RMB5.00 HK$8 高層量迈向"十万元 » 02~04 落实推动房地产高质量发展 各地"十五五"规划有力部署 落实推动声地产高质量发展 的目标,既需要因城篮策稳移击 促消费,推动建设安全、舒适、绿 色、智慧的好房子,也需要持续完 善住房保障体系,满足域倒低收 入工薪群体和各类困难家庭基本 住房需求,以及建立房屋全生命 周期安全管理制度。 总投资超 8000 亿元 广州拿出 102个城市更新项目 城市更新要将融资嵌入规划。 在谋划初始阶段即全面介入,将 融资方案设计与项目实施路径 体缔筹、同步规划,确保项目"前 期早介入、出门即可贷", 消化存量房 建设"好房子" 辽宁明确房地产高质量发力点 推广房景安置、以旧换新,收 版な最高品启国作候時休休息。 有力有序消化存量房产。大力推 进安全舒适绿色智慧"好房子"建 设,实施房屋品质提升工程和物 业服务质量提升行动,全链条提 升住房建造服务水平。 项目托管后再"割肉 珠光控股变现止损 珠光控股拟以 0.8亿港元向 控股股东转 ...

其他热点还有：我国首部上市公司监督条例征求意见，豆包手机助手引发热议。 国务院部署新型城镇化重点任务 12月3日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格局"为主题，进行第 十七次专题学习。国务院总理李强在主持学习时强调，坚持以人为本提高城镇化质量水平，充分释放城 乡融合发展蕴藏的巨大内需潜力，为经济社会发展提供强劲动力。 新型城镇化是个系统工程。李强提到四方面的重点任务：要因地制宜实施好新型城镇化规划；要科学有 序推进农业转移人口市民化，解决好农业转移人口的就业、社保、安居、子女教育等问题；要深入实施 城市更新行动，把城市更新和消除安全隐患、稳楼市等工作结合起来，扎实推进好房子建设和房地产高 质量发展；要着力破解城乡二元结构，推进基本公共服务均等化，促进城乡融合发展。 【点评】新型城镇化不仅能扩大有效益的投资，而且能激发有潜能的消费，是统筹投资和消费的黄金结 合点。尽管我国城镇化已经进入快速发展阶段的后期，但仍有提升空间。为此，要继续深入推进新型城 镇化，重点要解决农业转移人口的就业、社保等问题，推动城乡融合发展，同时利用REITs等创新融资 方式支持城市更新项目，这些系统性的规划与 ...