华盛顿的夏夜闷热粘稠，美联储主席鲍威尔在国会山听证席上擦去额角的汗珠。仅仅24小时前，他刚向议员们强调利率调整还需"观望"，话音未落，特朗普 的咆哮已席卷社交媒体："鲍威尔是最差的主席！立刻给我降息2到3个百分点！" 芝加哥商品交易所的交易屏幕在凌晨1点闪烁着冷光：美联储7月降息概率仅21%，而9月启动降息的可能性已飙升至90%以上。 市场刚消化完美联储内部分 裂的信号——两位特朗普任命的官员沃勒与鲍曼意外转向鸽派，暗示7月可能降息；但转眼间十多位官员集体泼下冷水："需要更多数据！" 01 美联储降息博弈，政治阴影下的独立危机 鲍威尔在国会听证会上的表态成为这场风暴的导火索。面对议员质询，他反复强调关税政策使美联储难以预测通胀前景："自二战以来各国都在减少关税， 但如今加征关税规模是特朗普第一任期的六倍，我们必须审慎分析。" 当被问及7月降息可能性时，他罕见松口："降息宜早不宜迟"，却拒绝承诺具体时间 点。 美联储内部裂痕在点阵图上暴露无遗：19位决策者中，7人坚持今年不降息，8人支持降息两次。 分裂程度创十年新高，最常见与次常见预测差距达50基 点。 德意志银行报告指出："这不是历史性不确定性，而是历史性分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of prices to adapt to trade and other policies will not be a short-term or simple process, potentially taking a year or longer [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Bostic emphasizes the complexity of price adjustments in response to trade and policy changes [1] - The timeframe for these adjustments is projected to be at least one year, indicating a prolonged period of economic adaptation [1]

Group 1 - The UK services sector experienced its fastest expansion in nearly a year in June, with the final value of the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising from 50.9 in May to 52.8, indicating the quickest growth since August 2024 [1] - The rate of price increases in the services sector fell to its lowest level in nearly four years, suggesting that price pressures monitored by the Bank of England are easing [1] - Despite a significant increase in new business, concerns about political and economic uncertainty have led to a slight decrease in business expectations for the coming year [1][2] Group 2 - The composite PMI rose from 50.3 in May to 52.0, indicating a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector after a prolonged downturn [1] - A survey indicated that the annual wage growth rate for UK businesses reached 4.6% in Q1 2025, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] - 29% of UK businesses expect a decline in sales due to changes in US trade policy, highlighting the impact of global economic conditions on local enterprises [2]

英国央行调查：6月份，29%的英国企业预计由于美国贸易政策的变化，未来一年的销售额将会下降， 24%的公司预计他们的资本支出将会下降。 ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high with a gain of 0.47%, while the Nasdaq rose nearly 1%, contrasting with a slight decline in the Dow Jones [2][3] - The rally was primarily driven by technology stocks, with Tesla surging nearly 5%, Oracle also jumping 5%, and Nvidia and Apple both increasing over 2% [3] Company-Specific Insights - Tesla's delivery numbers have declined for two consecutive quarters, yet the stock rose over 4%, indicating strong market confidence in the long-term prospects of electric vehicles despite short-term delivery data [3] - Cathie Wood's ARK Investment increased its stake in Tesla during the recent pullback, suggesting that major investors still believe in the long-term growth narrative for electric vehicles [3] Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to approximately 4.27%, while the two-year yield experienced volatility following the release of ADP employment data, reflecting ongoing market concerns about the economy and Federal Reserve policy expectations [3] - The U.S. dollar index saw a slight decline, while crude oil prices increased by around 3%, and precious metals like gold and platinum also rose, indicating a potential increase in risk-averse sentiment among investors [3] Trade and Sector Performance - News of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam led to a surge in apparel and footwear stocks, with Nike rising over 4% [3] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with the Golden Dragon Index barely up by 0.06%, while companies like Xpeng and Tiger Securities saw slight gains, contrasted by declines in New Oriental, Alibaba, and Bilibili [3] Investment Strategy - The current market environment is characterized by volatility, with technology giants supporting the indices through performance and AI narratives, while trade policies and economic data introduce uncertainty [4] - Long-term investors are advised to focus on whether the rebound in tech stocks is driven by sentiment recovery or fundamental support, and whether short-term trade benefits can translate into sustained corporate growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - BYD has suspended plans to build a large factory in Mexico due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainties stemming from U.S. trade policies [1][2] Group 1: Expansion Plans - BYD remains interested in expanding in the Americas but currently has no timeline for new investments [1] - The Bahia factory in Brazil is BYD's first factory outside Asia, with the first vehicle rolling off the production line on July 1 [1] - Once operational, the Bahia factory is expected to produce 150,000 vehicles annually, with plans to double capacity to 300,000 in about two years [1][2] Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - Geopolitical factors significantly impact the automotive industry, prompting companies to rethink their strategies in other countries [1] - BYD is waiting for clearer geopolitical conditions before making further decisions regarding expansion [1] Group 3: Import Tax Considerations - BYD has requested a 12-month import tax exemption from the Brazilian government for the first phase of the factory, concerning the assembly of vehicle kits [2] - The company argues that imposing the same import tax on semi-assembled vehicles as on fully assembled cars would render the importation of semi-assembled vehicles impractical [2]

Group 1 - The podcast "Pacific Polarity" features Kurt Tong discussing the evolution of U.S. foreign policy in Asia, particularly regarding tariffs and trade agreements [1][2] - Kurt Tong predicts that the U.S. will engage in multiple bilateral trade agreements this year, as the desire to maintain high tariffs has diminished due to public discontent and inflation concerns [2][5] - The U.S. remains a major source of foreign direct investment and technology, but there is a political contradiction regarding overseas investments by American companies [4][5] Group 2 - There is a growing political focus on the need for more domestic manufacturing in the U.S., especially in traditional industries, as voters in key regions are affected by the decline of manufacturing jobs [5][6] - The perception that companies are "exporting jobs" overseas creates a political dilemma, as there is a desire to keep manufacturing in the U.S. despite potential cost implications [5][6] - The current political environment is pushing for a reevaluation of trade and investment policies, influenced by protectionist sentiments and the desire to bring jobs back to America [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The ADP report indicates a surprising decline in private sector employment in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [3][4]. Employment Data Summary - In June, U.S. private sector jobs decreased by 33,000, with the previous month's increase revised down to only 29,000 [3]. - The service sector saw a significant job loss of 66,000, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [6][7]. - Manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors experienced job gains, with a total increase of 32,000 in production jobs, partially offsetting the overall decline [8]. Economic Sentiment and Future Outlook - Employers are becoming increasingly cautious due to the impact of trade policies and are focusing on aligning workforce numbers with the slowing economic activity [6]. - The average job growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700, the lowest since the early pandemic [10]. - The proportion of consumers who believe job opportunities are plentiful has dropped to a four-year low, indicating a potential shift in economic sentiment [10]. Wage Growth and Employment Trends - Wage growth has also slowed, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 6.8% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [10]. - The upcoming government non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-01原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1. 美国财政部长贝森特周一在接受彭博电视采访时表示，他对特朗普的全面税收法案将向前推进充满信心，预计 总统将在7月4日前签署该法案。贝森特将这项立法描述为"解决债务问题的开始"，并表示，"我们将扭转形 势，降低债务水平。"他还对"法案削减医疗补助计划的想法表示反对。"当被问及增加长期美债发行占比时， 贝森特反问道："我们为什么要这么做？"他指出，"合适的时机本应是2021、2022年"。贝森特去年曾多次 批评时任财长耶伦在发行中依赖短期美债，称此举旨在压低长期借贷成本以在选举前刺激经济。但自上任以来， 他却延续了耶伦的债务发行策略。 2. 美国总统特朗普周一继续敦促美联储放松货币政策，向主席鲍威尔发送了一张世界各国央行的利率清单，上面 有他的亲笔批注，称美国利率应介于日本的 0.5% 和丹麦的 1.75% 之间，并告诉鲍威尔"他一如既往地'动作 太慢'"。"你应该大幅降息。我们正在损失数千亿美元，" ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced a strong rebound after hitting a low in April, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs [1] - The S&P 500 index saw a market capitalization increase of over $10 trillion in less than three months, marking the shortest record for the index to recover from a drop of more than 15% to a new high [1] - Historical data indicates that July is typically one of the best-performing months for U.S. stocks, prompting investors to closely monitor upcoming key events [1] Group 2: Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, strongly advocated by Trump, is facing a critical vote in the Senate, with the White House aiming for its signing before July 4 [3] - The bill passed the House with a narrow margin of 215 to 214 votes and is currently under Senate review, where it advanced with a procedural vote of 51 to 49 [3] - The Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill will increase federal debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade and proposes raising the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, a historic increase [3] Group 3: Trade Policy and Market Impact - Trump's announcement to suspend trade negotiations with Canada led to a significant short-term drop in U.S. stocks, highlighting the market's sensitivity to trade negotiation news [4] - The 90-day tariff suspension period is set to expire on July 9, with Trump indicating no intention to extend it [4] - The current market environment is characterized by "extreme policy uncertainty," with potential pressures on the U.S. economy from tariff policies manifesting as price increases, declining corporate profits, or reduced business investment [4]