国外 1. 摩根大通：特朗普新关税将使美国平均税率升至14.6% 摩根大通经济学家迈克尔·费里奥和阿贝尔·莱因哈特发布最新研究报告，估算纳入特朗普本周宣布、将 于8月1日对14个国家加征的关税后，美国的平均关税税率将从此前的13.4%上升至14.6%。另据德国商 业银行的独立分析，新的平均关税税率可能超过18%。此外，摩根大通还指出，如果特朗普继续推进其 他潜在贸易措施，例如恢复4月份提出的针对其他国家的对等关税、新增铜产品关税或对金砖国家等加 征关税，美国整体平均关税税率还可能进一步上升多达6个百分点。 2. 高盛：美元或将再次以"风险较高"货币的态势交易 高盛表示，美元有理由很快就开始以一种"风险较高"货币的态势交易，但高盛仍未看到美元的避险吸引 力出现永久性转变。分析师在报告中写道，从关税到美联储独立性等政策不确定性仍高。 3. 花旗：2025年剩余时间向美国出口铜的窗口或将关闭 花旗分析师表示，特朗普关税是铜市场的分水岭。他们在一份报告中写道，特朗普关税将突然关闭向美 国出口铜的窗口，或许在2025年的剩余时间里都如此，随着库存减少取代进口，进口需求将崩溃。 4. 花旗：美联储会议纪要或呼应鲍威尔证词 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔最近老是挨骂。 当地时间7月9日，美国总统特朗普发文批评鲍威尔，称目前的利率至少高了三个百分点，给美国造成了高额的再融资成本。7月以来，特朗普多 次向鲍威尔发难，称其"糟糕透顶""太迟先生"，并称"他应该立刻辞职，我们应该找个愿意降息的人来接替他"，对美联储频繁施压。 特朗普连番炮轰鲍威尔为哪般？鲍威尔能顶住压力吗？美联储目前针对降息有什么看法？ 频繁开炮 当地时间7月9日，特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"发帖批评美联储主席鲍威尔，并再次批评美联储当前的利率政策，称美联储的利率至少偏高了3 个百分点，利率每个百分点每年给美国造成了3600亿美元的再融资成本。 "我们正在努力实现宏观稳定。"鲍威尔在论坛上表示，"要成功做到这一点，我们需要以一种完全非政治的方式来做，这意味着我们不偏袒任何 一方。" "非政治的考虑"是鲍威尔的底气，美联储有权保持其独立性。根据美国法律，虽然美联储主席由美国总统提名，但美联储并不直接对总统负责， 享有很高的独立性。鲍威尔曾表示，美联储的使命是促进充分就业和维持物价稳定，在设定货币政策时没有也不应该把政府的债务成本纳入考虑 范围内。但特朗普对美联储的频繁施压，以及对货币政 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、 耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 7月9日，国家统计局公布6月通胀数据，CPI同比0.1%、前值-0.1%、预期0%、环比-0.1%；PPI同 比-3.6%、前值-3.3%、预期-3.2%、环比-0.4%。 核心观点：大宗商品、核心商品、服务价格表现分化，令CPI与PPI"一升一降"。 分化一：6月PPI上游煤、钢等大宗商品价格回落，而CPI上游食品、铂金等大宗价格走强。 6月PPI同比 较前月回落0.3pct至-3.6%。其中钢材、水泥、煤炭等供给充足，测算钢、煤价格拖累PPI环比-0.4%；但 国际油价上行对国内油价形成支撑，铜价贡献依然为正，测算油、铜价格支撑PPI环比0.2%。CPI方面，6 月CPI同比0.1%。一是极端天气影响食品供给，食品CPI同比+0.1pct至-0.3%；二是金价保持高位，铂金饰 品价格上涨12.6%，对应包含首饰等其他用品及服务CPI同比上行0.8pct。 分化二：核心商品PPI仍在历史低位，既反映关税对价格的冲击，也与国内中下游产能利用率偏低有关。 6月核心商品PPI同比虽回升0.4pct至-1%，但整体仍在低位 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen above 3500 points, with total trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan [1] - The real estate sector has shown the highest growth among the primary industries [1] - Recent CPI and PPI data indicate low inflation levels, highlighting insufficient demand as a core issue, while core CPI excluding energy and food is at a relatively high level [1] Economic Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that China's economic increment during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, with a total economic volume projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan this year [2] - Domestic consumption has contributed an average of 56.2% to economic growth, emphasizing the importance of internal demand as a core engine for high-quality growth [2] Trade and Tariff Implications - The recent tariff increases announced by former President Trump may have limited direct impact on the U.S. economy but could indirectly affect inflation and growth through supply chain transmission and market sentiment [3] - The tariffs, effective from August 1, will impose rates ranging from 20% to 50% on various countries, potentially leading to price fluctuations in agricultural and energy sectors [3] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a consensus to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with a focus on the ongoing economic expansion and low unemployment [3] - There remains significant uncertainty regarding the potential impact of tariff policies on inflation, necessitating close monitoring of upcoming U.S. CPI data [3] Stock Market Performance - On July 10, the A-share market saw an increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3509.68 points, up 0.48% [4] - The real estate, oil and petrochemical, and steel sectors led the gains, while the automotive and media sectors experienced declines [4] Capital Flow - The market turnover was recorded at 15,153.01 billion yuan, showing a decrease from the previous trading day [5] - The margin trading balance rose to 18,687.97 billion yuan, indicating increased investor activity [5]

证券研究报 【债券日报】 金价&油价,如何影响通胀? -6月通胀数据解读 周三上午统计局公布数据显示 6月 CPI同比上涨0.1%,预期持平,前值降0.1%; � 6月 PPI 同比下降 3.6%,预期降 3.2%,前值降 3.3%。具体来看: 一、金价和油价扰动背后,两个价格核心关注问题 � 问题一:核心 CPI 回升是金价带动,还是需求端回暖? 拆解核心 CPI 的构成,得出服务占比稳定在 55%,核心消费品占比为 45%, 黄金占比为 0.55%,结合各分项价格变动可推算出 2025年上半年核心 CPI 环 比累计上涨 0.5%,其中黄金拉动 0.13%,服务拉动 0.17%,剔除黄金的其他核 心消费品拉动 0.2%,体现出今年促消费政策对服务和核心消费品的需求拉动 作用,黄金助涨了核心 CPI 但并非主要因素。需要注意的是剔除黄金后的核 心消费品环比二季度弱于一季度,关注新一轮消费刺激政策可能再次出台。 问题二:6月油价大幅上涨,为何 PPI同比反而下行? 6 月 PPI 环比继续保持-0.4%的降幅,原油价格上涨 9%约拉动 PPI 0.3 个百分 点,但国内生产淡季和"抢出口"效应的弱化抵消了这一 ...

不得 宏观研究 证券研究报 【宏观快评】6月通胀数据点评 外信! 宏观快评 2025年07月10日 从实际库存角度观察 PPI 事 项 6月,CPI 同比上涨 0.1%,预期持平,前值下降 0.1%;核心 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%, 前值上涨 0.6%。PPI 同比下降 3.6%,预期下降 3.2%,前值下降 3.3%。 主要观点 6月物价数据简评:四个要点 ogo 1、预计二季度 GDP 平减指数同比约-0.9%,一季度为-0.8%。二季度 CPI 同 比-0.03%,较一季度的-0.1%略有好转;不过,PPI同比-3.2%,较一季度的-2.3% 有所回落,商品房售价同比也较一季度有所下行。预计二季度名义 GDP 增速 约 4.4%,一季度为 4.6%。 2、本月 PPI 低于预期,也弱于 PMI 价格和高频价格的指引,可能有两个因 素:第一,高频的原材料价格向 PPI 相关行业的传导需要时间,并且若在需求 偏弱背景下,企业的实际交易价格可能低于市场报价。第二,PMI 价格中并未 包含采矿和公用事业,而"绿电增加"导致本月电热供应 PPI 环比跌 0.9%。 3、CPI 环比-0.1%,重点关注:1)毕业 ...

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a significant pullback on July 10, with all major government bond futures closing lower, indicating increased vulnerability due to compressed spreads, high leverage, and low funding rates [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 32.8 billion yuan in the open market, with short-term funding rates trending upwards as the month progresses [1][5] Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year main contract fell by 0.36% to 120.530, while the 10-year main contract decreased by 0.16% to 108.845 [2] - The yield on the 30-year government bond rose by 0.75 basis points to 1.869%, and the 10-year government bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.656% [2] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, most U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4.71 basis points to 3.764% [3] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, indicating a mixed sentiment in the international bond markets [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had a bid yield of 1.3908% for 185 days, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.97, indicating strong demand [4] - The Export-Import Bank's 3-year fixed-rate bond had a bid yield of 1.4% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.22, reflecting investor interest [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 32.8 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 0.3 basis points to 1.316% [5] Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that while CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, PPI was weaker, indicating a potential bottoming process for prices, but warns of demand-side weakening [6] - CITIC Securities highlights multiple factors affecting the bond market, including concerns over the sustainability of inflation improvements and external demand weakness [7] - Changjiang Fixed Income anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield will continue to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.65%, with potential opportunities in the yield curve [7]

2025 年 7 月 10 日星期四 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 美联储纪要：多数官员认为关税可能持续推高通胀，少数官 员愿意在下次会议上考虑降息 特朗普：利率至少高了 3 个百分点 特朗普再向 8 国发出关税信函 巴西面临 50%的关税 特朗普：金砖国家将"很快"面临 10%的额外关税 特朗普政府加大施压哈佛面临失去认证资格风险 美商务部长称拟于 8 月初与中方会谈 中国 6 月 CPI 同比 0.1% PPI 同比-4.3% 6 月底港股总市值 42.7 万亿港元 同比升 33% 消息称硅片厂商昨日下午普遍调高报价 OpenAI 即将推出 AI 浏览器 2 年期美债收益率跌 5.39 个基点报 3.839% 5 年期美债收益率跌 6.82 个基点报 3.901% 10 年期美债收益率跌 7.12 个基点报 4.330% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | ...

为应对美国关税带来的冲击，日本汽车制造商正采取一种激进的策略：牺牲利润以维持市场竞争力。 据日本央行周四公布的企业商品价格报告，上月以合约货币计算的对北美汽车出口价格指数同比暴跌 19.4%，创下自2016年有记录以来的最大单月降幅。这表明企业正选择自行消化关税成本，而非将其完 全转嫁给消费者。 这一"降价保量"的策略引发了市场对企业盈利能力的深切担忧，并可能威胁到日本经济至关重要的薪资 持续增长势头。日本央行正密切关注这一动态，因为薪资-通胀的良性循环是其决定下一次加息时机的 关键考量因素。 日本车企的这一策略，已引起货币政策制定者的警惕。日本央行行长植田和男上周表示，他正密切关注 在美国征收关税的背景下，国内的"薪资-通胀循环"能否得以维持，并以此作为判断下一次加息时机的 重要依据。 除汽车行业外，更广泛的经济数据也呈现出复杂局面。周四的报告同时显示，由于石油和钢铁价格下 跌，日本6月份整体生产者价格指数（PPI）同比上涨2.9%，增速低于前一个月的3.3%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the international spot gold price has been fluctuating, initially declining and then rising, influenced by the Federal Reserve's differing views on interest rate outlook due to tariff impacts on inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal that only a "minority" of officials support a rate cut this month, while most are concerned about inflationary pressures from Trump's tariff policies [1] - The updated dot plot from the meeting shows that out of 19 officials, 10 expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, while 7 predict no cuts until 2025, and 2 anticipate one cut [1] Group 2 - Technically, the market response has been muted, with gold prices hovering around the critical level of $3316 per ounce, indicating unclear market direction [2] - The short-term K-line structure suggests that gold prices have broken below the 21-day short-term moving average, indicating potential entry into a bearish model, but further confirmation is needed [2] - Resistance levels for gold prices are noted at $3385 per ounce, with a breakthrough potentially adjusting resistance to $3434 per ounce, while support is at $3266 per ounce, with a breakdown adjusting support to $3198 per ounce [2]