Core Viewpoint - The ongoing uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies may dampen business and household confidence, potentially dragging down both the Japanese and global economies [1]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Junko Nakagawa, a member of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, emphasized that despite trade agreements between Japan and the U.S. and progress in negotiations among other major economies, significant uncertainties remain [1]. - The potential impact of these uncertainties could lead to a decline in global business and household confidence, which may adversely affect domestic and international economic conditions [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - Nakagawa reiterated that if economic trends align with expectations, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates, but she stressed the need for cautious data assessment amid increasing uncertainties [1]. - The upcoming "Tankan" business sentiment survey results are highlighted as crucial for evaluating the impact of major economic negotiations on Japanese businesses, with the next survey scheduled for release on October 1 [1]. - Following a decade of large-scale stimulus, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.5% in January, believing Japan is on the verge of achieving its 2% inflation target [1]. Group 3: Inflation and Wage Pressure - Nakagawa pointed out that upward pressure on wages may continue to drive prices higher, which could affect household confidence and inflation expectations [2]. - An August survey indicated that nearly two-thirds of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise the key interest rate by at least 25 basis points later this year, a notable increase from just over half of economists a fortnight earlier [2].

周四（8月28日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.13，跌幅0.06%，开盘价为98.19。国金宏观研报指 出，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会的讲话中出人意料地转向鸽派。 美元指数近期呈现出复杂的走势。此前美元指数从 100.15 的低点一路上涨到 110.18 的次高点后，再次 开启承压回落的走势。目前整体价格跌破并运行在 MA250 下方，并且跌破 100 的整数关口，呈明显的 空头趋势。从相对强弱指标(RSI)来看，目前处于 50 附近，表明市场多空力量相对均衡。 鲍威尔对劳动力市场的观点发生了180度转变，开始极度担忧就业下行风险。这种转变与7月不降息的决 定相悖，难以单纯用经济数据变化来解释。研报认为，这或许证明了特朗普长期以来对美联储施加的政 治高压正在取得回报。尽管美联储此前对2025年的降息预期维持在两次（共50个基点），但鲍威尔这次 清晰的鸽派信号，不仅强化了市场对9月降息25个基点的预期，也增加了年内连续降息的可能性。报告 提醒，过度宽松的货币政策环境可能带来副作用。大幅降息后，美国经济的再加速可能面临更高的通胀 中枢。这意味着美国未来或将面临更难控制的通胀动态，以及"今年更滞、明年更胀 ...

摘要周四（8月28日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3398.47美元/盎司附近，日内关注至8 月23日当周初请失业金人数(万人)、美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率修正值、美国7月成屋签约销售指 数月率等数据。随着美联储独立性危机加剧，周三黄金价格连续第二个交易日走高，最终收涨0.10%， 收报3396.59美元/盎司。 周四（8月28日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3398.47美元/盎司附近，日内关注至8月23 日当周初请失业金人数(万人)、美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率修正值、美国7月成屋签约销售指数月 率等数据。随着美联储独立性危机加剧，周三黄金价格连续第二个交易日走高，最终收涨0.10%，收报 3396.59美元/盎司。 | 15分 30分 60分 打开金投网APP 策 [] | 分时 5日 日K | 周K | 月K | 55 | === | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2 2 | 2025/08/28 开 3385 74 宫 3387 34 此 3387 34 任 3385 49 幅 0 04% | | | | 总之，PCE数 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant shift in global financial markets triggered by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish signals at the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, leading to a decline in the US dollar and a surge in gold prices, as well as record highs in the US stock market [1] - Hedge funds are rapidly increasing their holdings in Chinese stocks at the fastest pace in seven weeks, with South Korean retail investors also aggressively buying A-shares, surpassing local investors' enthusiasm [1][4] - Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, predict an influx of 5 trillion to 10 trillion yuan into the A-share market, providing a strong boost to Chinese equities [1] Group 2 - Powell's sudden shift in stance is attributed to the deep-rooted issues in the US economy, including a projected fiscal deficit of 1.8 trillion dollars by 2025 and interest payments on national debt exceeding 1 trillion dollars for the first time [3] - The US economy is showing signs of significant slowdown, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate rising to 4.25%, the highest in four years [3] - The market anticipates a 93% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with some investors betting on a 50 to 100 basis point reduction [3] Group 3 - The continuous decline of the US dollar index has accelerated the shift of global capital, with a net inflow of 42.6 billion yuan into the Chinese market in August, marking a peak daily inflow of 6.8 billion yuan [4] - Foreign investors are attracted to the Chinese market due to the favorable price-to-earnings ratio, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 11 times compared to the S&P 500's 24 times, indicating a potential bubble risk in the US market [6] - Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 75 basis points this year, at least 500 billion dollars in foreign capital could flow into the A-share market [8] Group 4 - The Biden administration is feeling anxious about capital outflows, signaling a potential rate cut while simultaneously increasing tariffs on China, raising the average rate from 16% to 19% [9] - The new tariffs are expected to lower US GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points and increase core inflation to 3.4%, indicating a detrimental impact on the US economy [9] - The direction of foreign capital inflow into A-shares is clear, focusing on hard technology, high dividends, and low valuations, with semiconductor leaders and resource companies gaining significant market attention [9][10] Group 5 - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of A-shares has reached 18 times, nearing the danger zone of the 2015 "leverage bull market," raising concerns about potential volatility if hot money enters and exits quickly [10] - The A-share market faces institutional shortcomings, including an imperfect delisting mechanism and governance issues, which could lead to significant market disruptions if not addressed [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% for the fifth consecutive time this year, which has implications for political and economic dynamics, particularly for Trump as he seeks to present a thriving economy ahead of the midterm elections [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates steady reflects a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties, particularly influenced by Trump's economic policies [4][6]. - The Fed's stance is driven by concerns over inflation and employment risks, indicating a lack of confidence in the current administration's economic direction [4][6]. Group 2: Political Implications - Trump's pressure for rate cuts is linked to his need for a strong economic narrative to support his re-election campaign, as lower rates could boost the stock market and make loans cheaper [3][4]. - The internal dynamics of the Federal Reserve are shifting, with factions emerging that either support immediate rate cuts or advocate for a wait-and-see approach based on economic data [7][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming September meeting is anticipated to be critical for the Fed's independence and decision-making, as internal divisions may influence the outcome [6][9]. - The political landscape suggests that regardless of the Fed's actions, the economic narrative will be shaped by Trump's influence, potentially leading to a scenario where the Fed's credibility is challenged [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting in September is considered "live," indicating potential for action based on real-time economic conditions [1] - New York Fed President Williams stated that the balance of risks between employment and inflation has shifted, suggesting that the Fed may need to adjust its policy stance [1] - Williams emphasized that current interest rates are at a "moderately tight" level, indicating that even if a rate cut occurs, monetary policy will still retain some degree of tightness in the short term [1] Group 2 - Following the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by Trump, there is increasing political pressure on Federal Reserve officials, with accusations of mortgage fraud being levied against Cook [2] - Williams refrained from commenting specifically on the Cook incident but underscored the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, which has proven to be extremely valuable globally [2]

Group 1 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index has dropped over 2% [1] - Meituan's ADR fell over 9% after the release of its Q2 earnings report, which showed revenue of 91.84 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, but below the expected 93.69 billion RMB [3] - Meituan's adjusted net profit for Q2 was 1.49 billion RMB, a significant decline of 89% year-on-year, compared to the expected 9.85 billion RMB [3] - The core local commerce segment of Meituan saw a revenue increase of 7.7% year-on-year to 65.3 billion RMB, but operating profit dropped 75.6% to 3.7 billion RMB due to irrational competition [3] - The operating profit margin for Meituan decreased by 19.4 percentage points to 5.7% [3] - The new business segment of Meituan reported an expanded operating loss of 1.9 billion RMB due to overseas expansion [3] - Other Chinese stocks such as Li Auto, JD.com, and Alibaba also experienced declines, with Li Auto down over 5%, JD.com down over 3%, and Alibaba down over 2% [3] Group 2 - The three major U.S. stock indices opened lower but saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.21%, S&P 500 up 0.17%, and Nasdaq Composite up 0.16% [3] - Recent U.S. economic data supports a cautious view on inflation but undermines confidence in employment [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in July recorded the largest increase in three years, indicating that companies are starting to raise prices to offset rising costs [3] - Some Federal Reserve officials are concerned that the impact of tariffs may persist into next year [3] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the number of new jobs added over the past three months, indicating a weak labor market [4] - The hiring rate has dropped to the lowest level since the pandemic, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [4] - A new employment report and additional inflation data will be available before the mid-September meeting of decision-makers [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the decline of major US stock indices and the significant drop in Chinese concept stocks, particularly Meituan, which reported disappointing earnings and faced intense competition in the food delivery sector [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - US stock indices opened lower on Wednesday, indicating a bearish market sentiment [1]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell over 2%, reflecting the struggles of Chinese stocks in the US market [2]. - Meituan's American Depositary Receipts (ADR) dropped over 9% following its second-quarter earnings report, which missed revenue expectations [4]. Group 2: Meituan's Financial Performance - Meituan reported second-quarter revenue of 91.84 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, but below the expected 93.69 billion RMB [4]. - The adjusted net profit for the second quarter was 1.49 billion RMB, a significant decline of 89% year-on-year, compared to the forecast of 9.85 billion RMB [4]. - The core local commerce segment's revenue grew by 7.7% to 65.3 billion RMB, but operating profit fell sharply by 75.6% to 3.7 billion RMB due to irrational competition [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent US economic data suggests a cautious approach to inflation, while also indicating weakened confidence in employment [6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in July saw its largest increase in three years, indicating that businesses are raising prices to offset rising costs [7]. - However, the US labor market appears to be softening, with a significant downward revision in job growth and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% [8].

➢ 一言以蔽之，日本当前的经济难题：劳动力市场偏紧+财政扩张（预期）+ 日元偏弱+落后于曲线的日本央行=通胀及其预期迟迟得不到缓解。 海外市场追踪 日央行加息：美联储之外的"暗流" 2025 年 08 月 27 日 ➢ 尽管通胀和通胀预期高企，但今年 1 月加息 25bp 后，日央行却持续放加息 的"鸽子"，导致货币政策明显落后于曲线： ➢ 一方面，上半年日本央行保持谨慎的重要考量之一，是对关税不确定性的担 忧。4 月以来对等关税及行业（汽车、钢铝等）关税逐步生效，日本出口企业利 润承压，降价促销现象凸显，经济下行风险加大；同时，国内居民薪资增速大幅 回落，在此背景下，日央行需审慎评估关税对经济增长的长期影响，避免过早加 息加剧企业和居民负担； ➢ 作为影响全球流动性最重要的两个影响因素，美联储已经暂时"认怂"，接 下来可能要重视日本央行。在海外市场都在关注一年一度的杰克逊霍尔会议时， 在世界的另一个角落，日本国债"跌"出了新高度：20 年日债收益率创下 1999 年以来的新高，30 年日债收益率则是创下面世以来的新高。长债波动的外溢效 应已经初见端倪，而下一个关注点可能是日本央行的加息。 ➢ 这个风险已经被 ...

Group 1 - The UK inflation has been rising without signs of significant slowdown, leading to market expectations that the Bank of England is not in a hurry to initiate a rate cut cycle in the short term [1] - Catherine Mann, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, emphasized the need to maintain high interest rates to curb inflation expectations, while also hinting that a sharper rate cut could be considered if domestic demand declines unexpectedly [1] - The Bank of England is attempting to balance controlling inflation and avoiding an economic hard landing [1] Group 2 - A rare and institutionally impactful event occurred in the US when President Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking the first time in the Fed's 111-year history that a governor was directly removed by a president [3] - Trump's public pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates has raised concerns about the independence of the central bank under political pressure, while also strengthening market expectations for a quicker shift to accommodative monetary policy [3] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates an 87% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, suggesting that easing expectations are being further priced in [3] Group 3 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently sensitive to intertwined policy and political risks, with the UK's persistent inflation supporting a tighter monetary policy, while concerns over the Fed's independence are creating potential long-term weakness for the dollar [4] - The future direction of the GBP/USD pair will largely depend on whether UK inflation can steadily decline and whether the Fed will implement a rate cut in September as expected, along with the dovish guidance that follows [4] - Political uncertainties in Europe and changes in market liquidity may amplify volatility in the short term [4]