Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and policy adjustments. Different sectors show different trends and risks, and investors need to pay attention to short - term fluctuations and long - term trends [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: The US imposes a 25% tariff on imported semiconductors; the inflation level is far from the target; US retail sales in November 2025 increased by 0.6% month - on - month [11][12][13] - **Comment**: Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, silver rose sharply. The Fed's willingness to cut interest rates decreased, and there was a lack of incremental funds in the short - term. Market volatility is expected to increase [13] - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to the callback risk of precious metals in the short - term, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to rise [14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - **News**: Trump said there would be a way to solve the Greenland issue; Fed officials signaled to keep the policy unchanged; the US Supreme Court did not rule on the Trump tariff case [15][16][17] - **Comment**: The US dollar index will maintain a volatile trend as the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short - term [18] - **Investment Advice**: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short - term [20] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: The US Supreme Court did not rule on the Trump tariff policy lawsuit; the Fed's Beige Book showed an improvement in the overall economy; the US imposed a 25% tariff on specific semiconductors [21][22][23] - **Comment**: Geopolitical events and tariffs affect market risk appetite. The US stock market rotates, but the upward trend is still supported by interest - rate cut expectations and earnings resilience [23] - **Investment Advice**: The US stock market will have greater volatility during the earnings season, but maintain a bullish view overall [24] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Hunan plans to use special bonds to purchase existing commercial housing; China's exports in December 2025 increased by 6.6%, and imports increased by 5.7%; the margin ratio for margin trading in the stock market was raised [25][26][27] - **Comment**: The stock market had a volume - based correction, but the long - term bullish trend remains, and the spring rally is yet to continue [28] - **Investment Advice**: Continue to hold long positions in stock index futures [29] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: The central bank conducted 900 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations; China's December import and export data exceeded expectations [30][31] - **Comment**: The bond market is generally bearish. Be cautious when chasing the rise and pay attention to short - hedging strategies [33] - **Investment Advice**: Be cautious when chasing the rise or betting on a rebound; consider shorting opportunities during rebounds [34] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - **News**: The price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable on January 14 [35] - **Comment**: Coal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate as downstream demand is weak, and the supply adjustment is accelerating. The implementation of Indonesia's 2026 tariff is yet to be confirmed [35] - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to whether coal mines will have an early holiday before the Spring Festival. Coal prices will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [35] 2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - **News**: Ukraine's Ferrexpo produced 6 million tons of iron ore in 2025 [36] - **Comment**: Iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate. Spot trading is okay, but steel mills are cautious about post - holiday demand [36] - **Investment Advice**: Iron ore prices will continue to be in a volatile range and difficult to break through [36] 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: From January 1 - 11, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 32% year - on - year; China exported 119.019 million tons of steel in 2025 [37][40] - **Comment**: Steel prices will continue to fluctuate. There was a rush to export in December 2025, but the export license system may suppress exports in 2026. The fundamental pressure is still large [40] - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a volatile trading approach in the near - term and pay attention to spot hedging opportunities during rebounds [41] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: China imported 8.044 million tons of soybeans in December 2025 [42] - **Comment**: Brazil's soybean harvest has begun with an optimistic production outlook. Domestic soybean imports increased in 2025. The spot price of soybean meal was stable with a slight decline, and downstream trading was active [42] - **Investment Advice**: Futures prices of both domestic and foreign markets will remain weak under the condition of a bumper harvest in South America. Pay attention to domestic reserve and customs policies [43] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - **News**: China's sugar imports in December 2025 are expected to be higher than last year; Brazil exported 740,000 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of January; the sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 33% in the first half of December [44][45][46] - **Comment**: The sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil decreased significantly in December due to the fast harvest progress and a decline in the sugar - making ratio. The market focuses on rainfall in the first quarter of Brazil [47] - **Investment Advice**: Zhengzhou sugar futures will fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the actual start of terminal stocking [48] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - **News**: Huatong Co., Ltd.'s hog sales revenue in December 2025 was 342 million yuan [49] - **Comment**: Near - month hog futures contracts strengthened in the short - term, but there is still pressure on farmers to sell hogs before the Spring Festival. Wait for high - volume stagnation or spot price weakness to short [49] - **Investment Advice**: Short near - month contracts at high prices or arrange reverse - spread strategies [50] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - **News**: Indonesia will increase the export tariff of crude palm oil to 12.5% from March [51] - **Comment**: The palm oil market fluctuated, with prices rising and then falling. The increase in the export tariff will add complexity to the market, and the B50 policy's suspension will limit the price increase [51] - **Investment Advice**: Palm oil prices will have short - term support, but the increase may be limited. Pay attention to high - frequency production and demand data from January 1 - 15 and consider going long if the de - stocking trend continues [52] 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: The trading restrictions and fee increase for the LC2701 lithium carbonate futures contract continued; Brazil's Sigma Lithium plans to resume partial production at the end of January; the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expects new energy vehicle sales to reach 19 million in 2026 [53][54][55] - **Comment**: The exchange took measures to cool the market. The mine will resume production as expected, the demand is off - season but not weak. The key issue is the downward price transmission [56] - **Investment Advice**: The market is bullish, but beware of the risk of long - position stampede. Control positions and operate carefully [57] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The LME 0 - 3 zinc spread was at a discount of $19.35 per ton on January 13 [58] - **Comment**: Zinc prices continued to rise. Geopolitical conflicts may affect zinc concentrate imports from Iran. The market is expected to remain high and fluctuate with a bullish bias [58] - **Investment Advice**: Consider buying on dips in the short - term for single - side trading; wait and see for spread trading; the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets has a good risk - return ratio but lacks a clear driving force [59] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: The LME 0 - 3 lead spread was at a discount of $43.81 per ton on January 13 [60] - **Comment**: Lead prices fluctuated and rose. The low - inventory risk has been alleviated, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting at high prices in the medium - term [61] - **Investment Advice**: Wait and see in general, and consider shorting at high prices in the medium - term for single - side trading; also wait and see for spread trading [61] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased year - on - year; Canada's Taseko Mines completed the construction of the Florence copper mine [62][63] - **Comment**: The Fed's January interest - rate cut expectation decreased, and geopolitical risks need to be observed. High copper prices suppress downstream replenishment. Copper prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level [64] - **Investment Advice**: Buy on dips for single - side trading; wait and see for spread trading [64] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - **News**: The US relaxed the export control of NVIDIA's H200 chips to China; the LME 0 - 3 tin spread was at a discount of $65.28 per ton on January 13 [65][67] - **Comment**: The supply of tin ore is uncertain, and the demand is weak. The high price suppresses consumption. Tin prices are expected to continue to be strong and fluctuate [68][69] - **Investment Advice**: Tin prices are expected to continue to be strong and fluctuate. Pay attention to December customs data and consumption recovery [69] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - **News**: The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week ending January 9 [70] - **Comment**: The uncertainty of the Iran situation is high. If the situation cools down, the risk premium may decline rapidly. If the geopolitical risk eases, the oil price may return to the supply - surplus fundamentals [70][71] - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to the impact of the Iran situation on oil prices in the short - term [72] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - **News**: Qingdao Jinneng's PDH Phase II shut down for maintenance on January 13 [73] - **Comment**: The Iran geopolitical event drove up prices, but high prices suppressed domestic buying interest [73] - **Investment Advice**: The prices of domestic and foreign markets are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term. Pay attention to the development of the Iran geopolitical situation [74] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - **News**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt increased [74] - **Comment**: The supply of low - price asphalt resources is decreasing. The demand is weak in the north, and the supply exceeds demand in the south. However, the rising international oil prices support the market [74] - **Investment Advice**: The asphalt futures market will fluctuate with a bullish bias in the short - term. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation [75] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - **News**: China's methanol port inventory decreased by 1.019 million tons as of January 14 [76] - **Comment**: The inventory decline was slightly faster than expected, but the unloading volume will increase next week. The geopolitical risk may increase, and the market is in a stalemate [76][77] - **Investment Advice**: Maintain a volatile view in the short - term, with the volatility range adjusted to 2,250 - 2,350 yuan per ton [77]

2026 年 1 月 15 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 【宏观】出口逆势破局，继续看好 2026 年表现——2025 年 12 月进出口数据点评 2025 年 12 月我国出口同比增长 6.6%，全年同比增长 5.5%，高新技术产品、集成电 路和汽车是出口主要拉动项。展望未来，我们依然对出口形势保持乐观。虽然 2026 年将面临较高的同比基数，但海外财政扩张带动需求增长、我国优势产业与全球需求 的高度匹配，有望继续支撑我国出口增长。欧盟、日本、泰国等区域取消小额包裹免 税政策，对我国出口造成影响有限。 【宏观】通胀担忧缓和，但短期降息必要性不强——2025 年 12 月美国 CPI 数据点评 此前因政府停摆导致统计"失真"，市场普遍预期 12 月数据纠偏会导致通胀环比反 弹。实际情况看，受二手车和卡车价格下跌影响，核心通胀环比反弹幅度不及市场预 期，打消市场担忧，也侧面说明关税对通胀的影响相对有限。尽管通胀担忧缓和，但 尚不足以影响年内降息节奏，预计一季度降息概率仍然较低。我们维持年内降息节奏 后置的观点，待新一届美联储主席上任后，降息节奏或有所加快。 行业研究 【基化】政策指引推动"AI+"转型，三 ...

首先通胀会侵蚀纸币储蓄的价值，促使更多人投向白银等有形资产。而地缘政治不确定性以及最新升级的美联储独立性担忧的局面，可能会为白银价格进一 步冲高创造必要条件。 周三，今年势如破竹的白银期货价格再次大涨，连续攻克90-93共四个整数关口。过去五年间，白银价格稳步攀升，2025年开启的这轮涨势尤为引人注目， 区间累计涨幅已超过200%。 在持续通胀、美元走弱、各国央行需求上升以及投资者在经济不确定性中寻求避险资产等多重因素的共同作用下，大量资金 正涌入白银市场。那么，白银 何时可以跨越近在咫尺的100美元呢？ 历史性超越 据企业市值数据平台companiesmarketcap 显示，持续创下历史新高的白银，在周三市值突破5万亿美元，超过英伟达成功跻身全球价值第二高的资产，仅次 于黄金。 此前，英伟达凭借人工智能概念股热潮，一直在全球金融市场占据领先地位。但长期被视为传统避险资产的白银，依托贵金属属性与工业实用价值的双重加 持，上演了一场出人意料的逆袭。 从历史上看，黄金一直是这两种贵金属中价值更高的品种，在金融与贸易领域常被奉为 "金本位"的标杆。然而，随着市场趋势与工业需求的转变，白银的 价值正在被挖掘。 不过 ...

前景如何 从历史上看，黄金一直是这两种贵金属中价值更高的品种，在金融与贸易领域常被奉为 "金本位"的标 杆。然而，随着市场趋势与工业需求的转变，白银的价值正在被挖掘。 首先通胀会侵蚀纸币储蓄的价值，促使更多人投向白银等有形资产。而地缘政治不确定性以及最新升级 的美联储独立性担忧的局面，可能会为白银价格进一步冲高创造必要条件。 全球央行与政府政策对贵金属的价值有着显著影响。历史上，央行一直将黄金作为储备资产，但如今部 分投资者和政府对白银的兴趣正日益浓厚。若央行采取行动丰富储备资产组合，也可能增加对白银的需 求，从而影响其市场价格。 推动白银这一轮涨势的并非只有避险资产需求。供需平衡是一个不可忽视的因素。白银拥有众多工业用 途，其需求正呈现结构性增长，在电动汽车和太阳能电池板领域的需求增长尤为显著。以太阳能电池板 为例，其光伏电池严重依赖白银来实现光能到电能的转换。鉴于各国政府和企业正大力投资可再生能 源，该领域的白银需求必将持续上升，进而可能推动其价值上涨。 另一方面，白银市场的潜在风险与不确定性还在于特朗普政府已经将其纳入关键矿产清单，投资者担忧 美国或对其加征关税 ——若实施将锁定已流入美国的白银，叠加中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are experiencing a significant surge, with the potential to reach $100 per ounce, driven by various factors including inflation, a weakening dollar, and increased demand from central banks and investors seeking safe-haven assets [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver futures prices have risen sharply, breaking through multiple key levels, with a cumulative increase of over 200% since the beginning of the current bull market in 2025 [1]. - The market capitalization of silver has surpassed $5 trillion, making it the second most valuable asset globally, only behind gold [4]. - The demand for silver is structurally increasing due to its industrial applications, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels, which are expected to drive further price appreciation [5]. Group 2: Economic Influences - Historical context suggests that reaching $100 per ounce is feasible, especially when considering inflation-adjusted values from past peaks [6]. - The supply-demand balance is critical, with rising physical demand from central banks and declining available supply potentially accelerating price increases [6]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence may create conditions conducive to higher silver prices [4]. Group 3: Market Signals - The gold-silver ratio has dropped below 50 for the first time since March 2012, indicating that silver's price increase is outpacing that of gold [8]. - A low gold-silver ratio may suggest that silver is overvalued, as historical averages indicate fluctuations based on macroeconomic cycles [8]. - Market participants are advised to consider their exposure to monetary assets rather than fixating solely on the allocation between gold and silver [9].

美东时间周三（1月14日），美国三大股指全线收跌，科技股成为拖累市场的主要因素。道琼斯工业指数微跌0.09%，报49149.63点；标普500指数下跌 0.53%，至6926.60点；纳斯达克指数跌幅居前，下挫1.00%，收于23471.75点。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普5( | | --- | --- | --- | | 49149.63 | 23471.75 | 6926. | | -42.36 -0.09% -238.12 -1.00% -37.14 - | | | | 中国余龙 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500 | | 7856.78 | 25599.25 | 6959.( | | -18.05 -0.23% -31.75 -0.12% --7.25 | | | | 美国国债 1 | | | | 3个月期 | 10年期 | 2年前 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3.632 | 4.132 | 3.501 | | 0.00bp | +0.59bp | +0.42b | | 5年美债期货 | 10年美债期货 | 2年美债! | | 109'074 | 112'160 | 10 ...

【资讯导读】 转自：新华财经 •美国对特定半导体加征25%关税 •美国11月PPI超预期上涨 能源成本推高通胀 •日元跌至18个月新低 日本财相警告干预可能 •韩国央行拟引导银行回流外汇储备 稳定汇率预期 【市场资讯】 •美国白宫宣布，自1月15日起对部分进口半导体、半导体制造设备及相关衍生品加征25%的从价关税， 旨在强化本土科技产业链安全。 •美联储最新褐皮书显示，12个辖区中有8个报告经济小幅至温和增长，较此前明显改善；消费者支出受 益于假日购物季，普遍呈现温和上升。 •美国总统特朗普表示，美国贸易逆差已降至2009年以来最低水平，且持续收窄；同时预测2026年GDP 增速将超过5%。 •美国联邦最高法院再次推迟就特朗普政府关税措施是否合宪作出裁决，全球市场需至少等到下周才能 获知该政策最终命运。 •费城联邦储备银行行长保尔森表示，若通胀持续降温且就业市场稳定，美联储可能在2026年晚些时候 进一步降息；票委卡什卡利则主张本月维持利率不变。 •明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长卡什卡利表示，当前无1月降息动力，并指出特朗普对美联储的施压涉 及货币政策核心，主席鲍威尔已作出"准确"回应。 •里士满联邦储备银行行 ...

博通、亚马逊跌超4%。 *三大股指连续下挫，纳指跌1%； *中长期美债收益率下跌，10年期美债跌超3个基点； 【热门股表现】 大型银行股延续低迷，富国银行跌4.6%，花旗、美银跌超3%。富国银行公布的第四季度财报显示，受 投行业务疲软拖累，该行营收未达市场预期。花旗集团四季度净利润同比下滑，营收则实现同比增长。 此前，摩根大通高管曾警告称，拟议的信用卡利率上限或将挤压消费者利益，并对整个金融行业的盈利 能力造成损害。 明星科技股全军覆没，谷歌跌不到0.1%，苹果跌0.4%，英伟达跌1.4%，特斯拉跌1.8%，微软和亚马逊 跌2.4%，Meta跌2.5%，博通跌4.2%，主要受网络安全软件应用受限利空影响，甲骨文跌4.3%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.2%，阿里巴巴涨1.7%，百度涨0.7%，京东跌0.2%，网易跌2.7%，拼多多跌 3.9%，受反垄断调查影响，携程重挫17.1%。 【市场概述】 经济数据方面，美国商务部周三公布的数据显示，美国11月零售销售额环比增长0.6%，为去年7月以来 新高，市场预期为0.4%。剔除汽车销售额后，核心零售销售额增长0.5%。13个类别中有10个类别实现 了增长，包括体育用 ...

广发证券研报指出，12月CPI数据虽受此前政府停摆影响有所波动，但核心读数依然温和。本次数据公 布前，市场已预期前期政府停摆造成的技术性干扰以及年末效应会使部分分项出现波动，因此对于 服 装、娱乐商品、酒店住宿等分项的反弹，市场总体将其视为基数效应修复而非趋势性变化。在"通胀未 脱轨+就业未失速"的背景下，我们理解短期降息必要性延续低位。 ...

新华财经纽约1月14日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会14日发布的全国经济形势调查报告显示， 根据截至5日收到的信息，在最近一个报告期内，美国12个联邦储备区有8个报告整体经济活动出现轻度 至温和增加，3个没有变化，1个出现温和下降。 报告表示，展望未来，企业预期物价上涨会有一些回落，但预计物价在其应对成本增加过程中将依然处 于高位。 联储每年发布8次"褐皮书"，通过联邦储备银行对全美经济形势进行摸底。该报告是美联储货币政策会 议的重要参考资料。下一次美联储货币政策会议将于1月27日至28日举行。 编辑：吴郑思 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 报告说，与此前三个报告周期中大多数联邦储备区报告没有什么变化相比，最新的报告显示经济活动出 现改善。 根据美国"联邦储备法"，美国全国划分为12个联邦储备区，每区设立一家联邦储备银行。该报告根据12 家联邦储备银行的最新调查结果编制而成，也称"褐皮书"。 报告表示，很大程度上得益于假日购物季，大多银行表示报告期内消费支出出现轻度至温和增长。不同 联邦储备区制造业活动情况参差不一，非金融服务业需求总体表现稳定到有所增长，农业情况大体保持 不变。 报告说，对未来经 ...