1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, and the tightness of London silver spot, precious metal prices continued to rise. With market divergence on the annual interest - rate cut amplitude and a downward - adjusted expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts, and under the support of interest - rate cut expectations and避险情绪, precious metal prices are expected to remain supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the US September CPI data released this week [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Affected by factors such as the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, and the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, the price of US gold continued to be strong, closing at $4,268 per ounce last Friday, up 5.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,400, and the lower support level is $4,100 [6]. - Similarly, due to the above factors and the tightness of London silver spot, the price of US silver continued to be strong, with a weekly increase of 6.5%, closing at $50.6 per ounce. The lower support level is $48.5, and the upper resistance level is $52 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - With the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, and the tightness of London silver spot, precious metal prices continued to rise. The market has a divergence on the annual interest - rate cut amplitude, and the expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts is lower than before. Fed meeting minutes show that most officials think further policy relaxation this year may be appropriate. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is evident, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is unlikely to be sustained. With the US economic data trending weaker, and market concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, precious metal prices are expected to be supported under the interest - rate cut expectations and避险情绪. It is recommended to pay attention to the US September CPI data released this week [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators No specific analysis content provided, only some data charts such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and bond yields are presented. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The Eurozone October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7, down from the previous value of 26.1 [25]. - The US October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was - 12.8, far lower than the expected 9 and the previous value of 23.2 [25]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Fed Governor Milan said that the resurgence of Sino - US trade tensions has brought new downward risks to the economic outlook, making it more important for the Fed to cut the target interest rate. He believes it is more urgent to take a more neutral policy stance [26]. 3.6 Inventory - For gold, this week, the COMEX inventory decreased by 25,926.98 kg to 1,216,367.63 kg, while the SHFE inventory increased by 13,878 kg to 84,606 kg [13]. - For silver, this week, the COMEX inventory decreased by 404,484.72 kg to 15,845,968 kg, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 248,958 kg to 920,103 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of September 23, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in gold was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week [13]. - As of September 23, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in silver was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Tuesday (October 20), at 20:30, the US September non - farm payrolls change seasonally adjusted and the US September unemployment rate will be released [37]. - On Friday (October 24), at 20:30, the US September CPI annual rate unadjusted will be released [37].

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The epic bull market of gold and silver experienced its first significant correction last Friday, and market divergence has significantly increased [2]. - The easing of Sino - US trade tensions, the potential de - escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the possible Fed rate cut in October (already priced in by the market) have led to a decline in gold and silver prices [2][4]. - The silver shortage in the London market has started to ease, prompting some investors to take profits [4]. - In the long run, the bullish fundamentals of gold and silver have not reversed, but in the short term, there will be an oscillation and consolidation period to digest profit - taking and short - term negative factors [4]. Group 2: Reasons for Market Changes Sino - US Trade Relations - Trump's latest statement on Sino - US trade negotiations shows a willingness to reach an agreement, with a possible further extension of the tariff suspension period, reducing market risk aversion [2]. Geopolitical Situation - After the cease - fire in the Palestine - Israel conflict, the Russia - Ukraine conflict shows signs of de - escalation, further weakening market risk aversion [2]. Fed Policy - Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a 25 - basis - point rate cut this month and a possible halt to balance - sheet reduction in the coming months, but the market has already priced this in [4]. Market Supply - The previous historical silver shortage in the London market has started to ease [4].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown a strong rebound, reaching historical highs and maintaining an upward trend, with future movements dependent on the trend line resistance level [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $4004.70, hitting a low of $4003.62 before rebounding to a historical high of $4378.91 on Friday, followed by a drop of over $192, ultimately closing at $4246.89. The weekly price fluctuation was $375.29, with a weekly increase of $234.26, representing a 5.83% rise compared to the previous week's closing price of $4012.63 [3]. Influencing Factors - The rise in gold prices was driven by concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, statements from Federal Reserve officials supporting interest rate cuts, heightened geopolitical tensions, and increased risk aversion due to issues in the U.S. credit market [3]. - The upward movement faced resistance at the trend line, leading to profit-taking, while the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded on Friday, adding pressure to gold prices [3].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market remains in a loose liquidity environment, with fluctuations driven by changes in risk sentiment and equity market volatility, resulting in a slight increase in the 10-year government bond yield to around 1.75% [1][4]. Market Review - From October 13 to October 17, the yields on various maturities of government bonds showed mixed movements, with the 1-year yield increasing by 7.43 basis points (BP) and the 30-year yield decreasing by 3.26 BP [2][3]. - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.4 BP to 1.8246% as of October 17 [3]. Specific Market Movements - On October 14, the 10-year government bond yield rose by 1.8 BP to 1.761% due to improved risk sentiment and strong import-export data [4]. - The bond market experienced fluctuations throughout the week, with the 10-year yield ending the week at 1.7475%, a net increase of 0.45 BP for the week [4][6]. Primary Market Activity - A total of 47 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 450.66 billion yuan, including 4 government bonds totaling 276 billion yuan [8]. - The Ministry of Finance completed the issuance of 400 billion yuan of 20-year special government bonds, marking the completion of this year's issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan of such bonds [8]. International Market Context - U.S. Treasury yields experienced a slight decline, with the 10-year yield dropping by 2 BP to 4.00% amid market concerns following the failure of two regional banks [10][12]. Institutional Perspectives - Huachuang Securities suggests that while there are no strong bullish factors driving a significant decline in yields, the market may find a new equilibrium around 1.75% [19]. - According to Fangzheng Securities, the bond market is expected to return to fundamental logic, with potential early issuance of local government refinancing bonds, although the scale is likely to be lower than last year [20].

10月以来，以中美贸易摩擦升级（美方拟加征关税）为契机，市场迎来新一轮风格切换行情——科技成 长大幅回调，红利风格明显跑赢。 月初至17日，红利指数、中特估指数分别上涨4.81%和1.89%，在主要宽基指数中涨幅靠前；创业板、 科创100则分别下跌9.35%和10.13%。 结合黄金价格大涨与股市成交量萎缩等表现来看，本轮资本市场风格切换，在很大程度上可归因于避险 情绪的显著升温。以黄金为例，自10月以来其累计涨幅已超过12%，月内相继突破3900美元-4300美元 等多个整数关口，表现极为强势；与此同时，A股市场日均成交额降至2.37万亿元，较9月日均水平萎缩 488亿元，反映出市场交投活跃度的回落。 避险情绪升温的背后，既有外部环境变化的影响，也有内部基本面因素的推动。从外部来看，贸易摩擦 升级等不确定性严重打击市场风险偏好，VIX恐慌指数月内大幅上涨超过55%，预示着全球资金避险需 求急剧上升。从国内来看，7至9月制造业PMI持续位于50%的荣枯线以下，PPI与CPI同比仍处于负值区 间，社会消费品零售总额与规模以上工业企业增加值增速亦呈现放缓趋势。这些数据均指向企业盈利端 面临压力，市场对即将披露的三 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Treasury bond futures is that they are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, while the medium - term view is that they will be volatile. The overall reference view is also volatile. This is due to the short - term increase in risk aversion sentiment and the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy [1][5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is volatile and slightly stronger, and the overall view is volatile. The core logic is the short - term increase in risk aversion sentiment and the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of Treasury bond futures (TL, T, TF, TS) is volatile and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is volatile. The core logic is that last Friday, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Recently, external uncertainties have increased, leading to a rise in market risk aversion sentiment, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. Macro data in September, such as inflation and financial data, are still weak, so there is an expectation of a loose monetary policy in the future, which also supports Treasury bond futures in the long run. Overall, due to the short - term increase in risk aversion and long - term loose expectations, Treasury bond futures are volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views - The softening of the US President's trade stance boosts global risk appetite, and the short - term macro upward drive has increased. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and Sino - US relations. [2][3] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends, with some suggesting cautious long - positions and others suggesting cautious waiting and watching. [2] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Overseas, the softening of the US President's trade stance boosts the US dollar index and global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth is accelerating, and multiple industry growth - stabilizing plans are introduced, increasing policy support. The market focuses on domestic policies and Sino - US relations, and the short - term macro upward drive has strengthened. [2] - For assets: stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position; bonds are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; for commodities, black metals are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; non - ferrous metals are adjusted, with cautious long - positions; energy and chemicals are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; precious metals are strongly volatile at high levels, with cautious long - positions. [2] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as power grid equipment, photovoltaics, and semiconductor components, the domestic stock market has fallen significantly. However, economic growth acceleration, the softening of the US President's trade stance, and domestic policy support boost risk appetite. The market focuses on policies and Sino - US relations, and short - term cautious long - positions are recommended. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell last Friday. With the softening of the US President's trade stance, global risk aversion declined, and gold prices dropped after hitting a record high. In the short term, precious metals are volatile at high levels, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term long - positions can be held or reduced on rallies, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is recommended. [3] Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly last Friday, with low trading volume. The easing of Sino - US trade conflicts and expectations of policy benefits support the market. Fundamentally, demand has changed little, inventory has decreased, and supply is likely to decline. In the short term, the steel market is expected to be range - bound. [4] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices were weak last Friday. With the narrowing of steel mill profits, iron ore demand is likely to decline. Supply has changed, with a decrease in shipments and an increase in arrivals, and port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices. [6] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Silicon iron and silicon manganese spot prices were flat last Friday, and the futures prices were volatile. The decline in steel production has reduced ferroalloy demand. Manganese ore prices are weak, and the supply of silicon manganese has decreased. Silicon iron prices are stable, and the market for some raw materials is tight. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to remain range - bound. [7] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Macro factors include the easing of trade tensions and the impact of US bank credit issues. The suspension of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices, but it is temporary, and future supply is expected to increase. Domestic copper inventory is high, and demand is facing challenges. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile. [8] Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose and then fell last Friday. The market is affected by bank credit issues. Aluminum inventory has decreased, but demand is weakening. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound. [9] Tin - On the supply side, Indonesian policies and mining approvals affect supply, and the end of maintenance in a large Chinese smelter increases production. On the demand side, demand is weak in traditional and emerging industries. High prices suppress demand, and inventory has decreased. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. [10] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The decline in spot market benchmarks and premiums has led to a fall in futures prices. The return of Asia - Pacific procurement is the focus, and Russian supply is a risk point. In the short term, there may be a price rebound, but the long - term outlook is bearish. [11] Asphalt - Asphalt prices are following oil prices and remaining low and volatile. The basis is low, and there is pressure on factory inventory accumulation. Profit has recovered slightly, and supply pressure is increasing. The future trend depends on oil prices and inventory. [11] PX - Affected by falling oil prices and weak polyester demand, PX prices are falling. Although PTA's high - level operation provides some support, PX is expected to remain weak and volatile. [11] PTA - Downstream demand is weak, and processing fees are falling. Inventory is accumulating, and the basis is decreasing. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended. [12] Ethylene Glycol - Inventory has increased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to remain low, with limited room for rebound. [12] Short - Fiber - Short - fiber is adjusting with the polyester sector and is expected to remain weak and volatile. The improvement in terminal orders is limited, and the future trend depends on demand recovery. [13] Methanol - Short - term supply has decreased, and demand from olefins is high, leading to a slight reduction in inventory. However, traditional demand is weak, and there are plans to restart production, so prices are expected to be volatile. [13] PP - Supply growth exceeds demand, and inventory is high. Falling oil prices weaken cost support. The future trend depends on demand recovery. [13] LLDPE - Supply has increased, and inventory has accumulated, suppressing prices. Demand is divided, and cost support is weakening. The market is under short - term pressure. [14] Urea - Daily production is stable. Industrial demand is stable, and agricultural demand is recovering. Exports are shrinking. The market may be stagnant and then rise slightly, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline. [14] Agricultural Products US Soybeans - USDA reports are delayed, and Sino - US soybean trade concerns persist. Domestic consumption provides some support. Brazilian and Argentine soybean conditions are good. The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and Sino - US trade is the key factor. [15] Soybean Meal - Domestic oil mill supply has recovered, but inventory pressure remains. Oil mill profit is in deficit, increasing the willingness to support prices. There is a supply gap risk before the arrival of South American soybeans next year. After the oversold situation, the market is expected to stabilize and fluctuate. [15] Oils - For rapeseed oil, the easing of China - Canada relations reduces risk appetite, and the market is expected to be volatile before trade news is clear. Palm oil supply and demand are stable, and prices are supported. Soybean oil is in the peak season, and the price is stable. [15][16] Corn - Corn from Northeast and North China is on the market, causing a seasonal impact. The current price is close to the cost line, and farmers' reluctance to sell may slow down the price decline. [16] Pigs - After the festival, the production and inventory reduction speed has accelerated, and pig prices have fallen to a new low. There is support from fat - to - lean price differences and some restocking, and the supply may decrease in late October, stabilizing prices. However, significant price recovery is difficult without a large increase in demand. [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Gold and silver have experienced significant price fluctuations recently. Due to the accumulation of many profit - taking positions after continuous rises, short - term volatility has intensified, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $4267.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 5.01% to $50.63 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed down 1.27% at 973.88 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver fell 3.94% at 11748 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of October 17, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 12.59 tons from the previous day to 1047.21 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased by 74.79 tons from the previous day to 15497.4 tons [1] - On October 17, the President of Ukraine met with the US President. Zelensky said he was willing to accept bilateral or trilateral talks, and Trump said the Russia - Ukraine conflict should end. Trump is about to meet with Putin in Budapest, Hungary [1] - On the morning of October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [1] Market Logic - There has been a historical short squeeze in the London silver market recently. Extreme market conditions have magnified market volatility. After continuous rises, the spot price of London silver hit a record high of $54.468 per ounce on October 17 and then plunged by 6.7%. COMEX silver futures also fell sharply, while the decline of COMEX gold futures was relatively small. The night sessions of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver also had significant pull - backs [1] - The willingness to hold talks between Ukraine and the US and the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, as well as the agreement to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, are conducive to reducing short - term market risk - aversion sentiment [1] Trading Strategy - Due to the accumulation of many profit - taking positions after continuous rises in gold and silver recently, short - term volatility has intensified, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]

2025 10 19 A 30-10 A 30-10 1 9 2 3 4 Z0016413 gaoxiang@nawaa.com 2011 1290 2025 10 19 1. 1.1 T2512 108.265 0.28% TF2512 105.775 0.11% TS2512 102.378 0.03% TL2512 115.73 1.5% 1.83% 0.42bp 1.46bp 1.5% 1.1 113.00 113.50 114.00 114.50 115.00 115.50 116.00 107.80 107.85 107.90 107.95 108.00 108.05 108.10 108.15 108.20 108.25 108.30 T2512.CFE TL2512.CFE(RHS) iFind 1.2 2 iFind 1 南华国债期货周度报告 全球共振避险,关注结构机会与修复行 ti 2025 年 10 月 19 号 表 1.1: 当周数据统计 ( 9.19—10.11 ) | 期货数据 | | 周五结算价 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10年期国 ...

Group 1: Market Overview and Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic data and key meetings to guide asset allocation strategies. As of the week ending October 17, there has been a decline in asset risk appetite, with technology stocks retreating and dividend sectors strengthening. Commodity prices showed mixed results, with gold, copper, and aluminum rising, while most other industrial products fell. U.S. Treasury yields decreased, and domestic trade data indicated a rebound in both imports and exports, with a continued expansion of trade surplus [8][9][10]. - The report highlights the upcoming release of China's Q3 GDP data, which will be analyzed from investment, consumption, and export perspectives. It also notes the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, particularly in sectors like rare earths and semiconductors, while expressing optimism about the development of artificial intelligence and its impact on the chip industry [8][9][10]. Group 2: Global Asset Review - The global stock market exhibited mixed performance during the week of October 17, with the French CAC index leading gains, supported by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The report ranks major equity indices, with the CAC40 outperforming others, while the Hang Seng and ChiNext indices lagged behind [11][12]. - In commodities, oil prices continued to decline due to geopolitical easing, while gold prices reached new historical highs driven by safe-haven demand. The report notes that the industrial product futures market saw a decline in the South China Industrial Product Price Index, with slight increases in coking coal prices [11][12]. Group 3: Domestic Equity Market Review - The domestic equity market saw a shift in style, favoring financials over consumption, cyclical, and growth sectors. The average daily trading volume was reported at 21,766 billion yuan, down from the previous week's 25,869 billion yuan. Among the 31 sectors tracked, only four sectors saw gains, with banking (+4.89%) and coal (+4.17%) leading, while electronics (-7.14%) and media (-6.27%) faced significant declines [18][19]. Group 4: Interest Rates and Currency Exchange Rates - The report indicates that the funding environment remains ample, despite pressures from tax payments and MLF maturities. The central bank's supportive stance is expected to maintain a loose liquidity environment. Short-term interest rates have remained low, with DR001 and DR007 weighted average rates reported [20][21]. - The report notes a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2Y and 10Y yields falling to 3.46% and 4.02%, respectively. The dollar index decreased, leading to a corresponding appreciation of the offshore yuan against the dollar, with expectations for the yuan to fluctuate between 7.10 and 7.20 [25][26]. Group 5: Commodity Tracking - The report tracks energy commodities, noting that WTI crude oil prices fell to $57.54 per barrel, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous week. U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.636 million barrels per day, while the number of active drilling rigs decreased [26][27]. - Gold prices reached $4,251.45 per ounce, marking a 5.81% increase week-over-week, driven by ongoing government shutdowns and expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The report suggests that the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to increasing safe-haven demand [43][44].