Group 1: Spot Market - The spot prices in North China are at 6890 (-60), East China at 6950 (-50), and South China at 7130 (-50), indicating a general decline of around 50 [1] - The market sentiment is weak, with low transaction volumes primarily driven by essential demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Inventory Data - The capacity utilization rate stands at 81.24%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14% [2] - The average operating rate of downstream PE is at 44.36%, with a minor increase of 0.23% [2] Group 3: Inventory and Market Outlook - Upstream equity inventory has accumulated to 105,900 tons [3] - The peak of PE maintenance has been observed, with significant inventory pressure expected in October due to the return of maintenance facilities and increased imports, while downstream demand remains lackluster [3] Group 4: Strategy - The current market strategy is to remain observant [4]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, and industrial sectors, indicating a mixed economic outlook with specific areas of concern such as low PMI indices and fluctuating commodity prices. Group 1: Liquidity - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 is at 46.37, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference is at -2.8 percentage points in August 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is at $4018 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI index for September is at 45.2%, marking a six-month low [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar up by 0.62%, cement price index down by 0.89%, rubber down by 1.35%, coke up by 3.65%, coking coal up by 0.30%, and iron ore down by 1.01% [5] - The average daily crude steel output from key enterprises in late September decreased by 8.88% month-on-month [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and glass increased by 0.77% and remained unchanged, respectively, while glass gross profit is at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide gross profit is at -1082 yuan/ton [6] - The operating rate for flat glass this week is at 76.01% [6] Group 4: Industrial Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year low of 46.51%, down by 27.07 percentage points [7] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.50%, copper up by 5.02%, and aluminum up by 0.91% [7] Group 5: Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum continues to reach historical highs [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is at 21020 yuan/ton, with a calculated profit of 3854 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up by 5.14% month-on-month [8] - The price of electrolytic copper is at 86830 yuan/ton, up by 5.02% [8] Group 6: Price Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver has reached a 14-month low [9] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is at 4.06 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 140 yuan/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 440 yuan/ton, up by 50 yuan/ton [9] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in September 2025 is at 47.80%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points [10] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is at 1014.78 points, down by 6.68% [10] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel is at 77.20%, down by 0.90 percentage points [10] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.51%, with the best-performing sector being industrial metals, up by 5.35% [11] - The PB ratio for ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 is at 40.18% and 97.52%, respectively [11] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production has reached a historical high in September 2025, indicating strong demand in the sector [2]. - The steel PMI index dropped to 45.2% in September, marking a six-month low, which reflects challenges in the construction and real estate sectors [24][45]. - The report notes that the profitability of titanium dioxide and flat glass remains low, with significant negative margins reported [78]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity Indicators - The London gold spot price reached a historical high of $4018 per ounce, reflecting increased global liquidity and risk appetite [11]. - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was at 46.37 in August 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [20]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national steel PMI index for September was reported at 45.2%, the lowest in six months, indicating a slowdown in construction activity [24][45]. - The average daily crude steel production for key enterprises in late September decreased by 8.88% month-on-month [45]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was at a five-year low, with a significant month-on-month decline of 27.07 percentage points [2]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum was reported at 21,020 yuan per ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.91% [10]. Subsector Performance - The report indicates that the profitability of titanium dioxide was negative at -1,082 yuan per ton, while flat glass had a negative margin of -58 yuan per ton [78]. - The operating rate for flat glass was reported at 76.01% [78]. Price Comparisons - The report notes that the price ratio of London spot gold to silver reached a 14-month low, indicating shifts in market dynamics [3]. - The price of rebar was reported at 3,260 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.6% [10]. Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in September 2025 was reported at 47.80%, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic pure benzene supply and demand remain weak, and the profit of petroleum benzene continues to be at a low level. This week, some domestic petroleum benzene and hydrobenzene plants are restarting, and the output of pure benzene is expected to increase further. In October, new plants of downstream styrene, caprolactam, and phenol are planned to be put into operation, with a converted production capacity higher than that of pure benzene. However, large styrene plants are still in the maintenance period, and the loads of caprolactam, phenol, and adipic acid plants are expected to decline this week, so the demand side will remain weak in the short term. Affected by the US's claim of imposing additional tariffs on China, international oil prices dropped significantly on Friday. After the early negative factors are digested, BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the range expected to be around 5650 - 5750 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 5682 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan; the settlement price was 5707 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan. The trading volume was 6668 lots, an increase of 2255 lots; the open interest was 13554 lots, an increase of 23 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast regions were 5720 yuan/ton, 5570 yuan/ton, 5750 yuan/ton, and 5521 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in the Northeast region decreased by 62 yuan/ton, while the others remained unchanged. The mainstream prices of hydrobenzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions were 5675 yuan/ton and 5450 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 50 yuan/ton and 250 yuan/ton. The FOB intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea was 693 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China was 706.11 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.39 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 65.08 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.57 dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 576.75 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.5 dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 46.02 tons, an increase of 0.32 tons. The terminal inventory of pure benzene at ports was 9.1 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons. The production cost was 5327.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 73.61%, an increase of 2.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid were 95.72%, 78.54%, 69.24%, and 64.3% respectively. The capacity utilization rate of caprolactam increased by 6.41 percentage points, adipic acid increased by 2 percentage points, while phenol decreased by 0.46 percentage points and aniline decreased by 0.1 percentage point [2] Industry News - From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.55% to 79.29% week-on-week, and that of hydrobenzene decreased by 0.75% to 63.24% week-on-week. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 1.56% to 77.72% week-on-week. As of October 13th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 9.0 tons, a decrease of 1.10% compared with last week. From October 9th to 11th, the profit of petroleum benzene in China was 314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton compared with last week [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the br2511 contract is a price fluctuation between 10,800 - 11,400 yuan/ton. With the restart of previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants and increased production, and sufficient supply of butadiene, as well as the expected increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization, the market situation is expected to change accordingly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract position is 32,013 lots, an increase of 3,155 lots. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 245 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,870 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers shows a downward trend. The basis of synthetic rubber is 280 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 62.73 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.49 dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 576.75 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.5 dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 785 dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 dollars/ton. The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,020 dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 58.9 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.61 dollars/barrel. The market price of butadiene in Shandong is 8,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.54 million tons/week, an increase of 0.01 million tons/week. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.37%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 27,750 tons, unchanged. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.43%, a decrease of 3.06 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons. The manufacturer's inventory and trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber are unchanged [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 55.26%, a decrease of 18.32 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 50.87%, a decrease of 14.85 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces. The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.87 days, an increase of 0.36 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.7 days, a decrease of 0.23 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points compared to the previous period and 36.62 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points compared to the previous period and 0.78 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Some enterprises carried out shutdown and maintenance during the holiday, which affected the overall capacity utilization rate. In September 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the same period last year. From January to September, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a 20% increase compared to the same period last year. In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber slightly declined. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 69.91%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points compared to the previous period and an increase of 12.16 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - The previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and the domestic output has increased. Some plants have also increased their production loads, and the overall output is expected to increase month - on - month. In October, although there are maintenance plans for butadiene plants of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Guangzhou Petrochemical, the supply of butadiene is still abundant due to the recovery of previously under - loaded plants and imports. During the holiday, some domestic tire enterprises carried out maintenance, which significantly reduced the enterprise capacity utilization rate. As the maintenance enterprises resume production, the device capacity will be gradually released, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to increase significantly this week [2].

Core Viewpoint - Jule Co., Ltd. is transitioning to the Beijing Stock Exchange after multiple failed IPO attempts on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, amid significant leadership changes following the death of its chairman, Tong Enwen [1][2] Group 1: Company Leadership and Ownership - Following the death of chairman Tong Enwen, his daughter, Tong Zhu, inherited 73.35% of the company's shares, becoming the actual controller of Jule Co., Ltd. [1] - Gao Zhaohui, Tong Zhu's spouse, is now the chairman and general manager of the company [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and IPO Plans - Jule Co., Ltd. plans to raise 5.52 billion yuan through its IPO, a reduction of 8.11 billion yuan from previous plans [10] - The company has shown revenue growth of 5.1% and net profit growth of 18.4% for 2024, despite a general industry downturn [7][10] Group 3: Related Party Transactions - Concerns have been raised regarding potential irregularities in related party transactions, including higher sales prices to affiliated companies compared to third-party sales [3][4] - The company has been criticized for "going for the inferior" in transactions, acquiring less profitable subsidiaries while paying additional amounts [4][5] Group 4: Market Position and Competition - Jule Co., Ltd. relies heavily on the Sichuan market, with nearly 76% of its revenue coming from the region, which may limit growth potential [11] - The company faces intense competition from both regional and national dairy giants, with a market share of only 0.31% in the dairy industry from 2020 to 2022 [12] Group 5: Production Capacity and Utilization - The company's production capacity utilization has fluctuated, with rates of 85.29%, 78.44%, and 84.49% from 2022 to 2024 [10] - The industry is experiencing overcapacity, with a decline in national milk production expected in 2024, which may impact Jule Co., Ltd.'s growth [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Jule Co., Ltd. in its IPO journey, highlighting concerns over related party transactions and the company's financial health amidst industry competition and potential overcapacity [2][7]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jule Co., Ltd. has transitioned to the Beijing Stock Exchange after multiple failed attempts to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange over seven years [2]. - The company is known for its popular products "Suanle Milk" and "Chewable Yogurt," which have a strong market presence in Sichuan [2]. Group 2: Leadership Changes - The company's actual controller and chairman, Tong Enwen, passed away on September 6, 2025, leading to his daughter, Tong Zhu, inheriting 73.35% of the shares and becoming the new actual controller [2][3]. - Tong Zhu's spouse, Gao Zhaohui, is now the chairman and general manager of Jule Co., Ltd. [3]. Group 3: Related Party Transactions - Concerns have been raised regarding potential irregularities in related party transactions, particularly the "go for the inferior, leave the superior" practice, where the company may be favoring less profitable subsidiaries [5][6]. - Jule Co., Ltd. has been involved in transactions with its major supplier, Gansu Qianjin Modern Agriculture Development Group, which is also a related party, raising questions about the legitimacy of these dealings [5][6]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Despite a general downturn in the industry, Jule Co., Ltd. reported a revenue growth of 5.1% and a net profit increase of 18.4% for 2024, contrasting with the declining performance of its peers [10]. - The company’s revenue from related parties has been significant, with procurement from related parties accounting for 10% to 16% of total purchases from 2019 to 2021 [6][10]. Group 5: Distribution Channels - Jule Co., Ltd. relies heavily on distributors, with distributor revenue accounting for 75.7% to 70% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024, and distributor gross margins exceeding direct sales [9][10]. - The company has faced scrutiny over the sustainability of its revenue growth, particularly given the unusual performance of certain small distributors that contributed significantly to revenue but had limited operational history [10][11]. Group 6: Capacity Utilization and Market Challenges - The company has experienced fluctuating capacity utilization rates, with figures of 85.29%, 78.44%, and 84.49% from 2022 to 2024, indicating potential inefficiencies [13]. - Jule Co., Ltd. faces significant competition from both regional and national dairy giants, with a heavy reliance on its flagship product "Suanle Milk," which may limit growth prospects [14][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - In October, domestic pure benzene supply is expected to increase. The impact of maintenance of petroleum benzene plants is expected to decline, and the operating load of North China hydrobenzene plants has gradually recovered to a neutral level after the end of production restrictions in early September, with stable operation expected in the future. New plants for downstream styrene, caprolactam, and phenol are planned to be put into operation, with the converted production capacity higher than that of pure benzene, indicating a medium - to long - term improvement in supply - demand trends. However, large - scale styrene plants are still in the maintenance cycle, limiting the growth space of pure benzene demand. Recently, international oil prices have fallen and rebounded due to factors such as OPEC's slight increase in production, concerns about economic growth caused by the U.S. government shutdown, and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. In the short term, the domestic pure benzene supply - demand situation is difficult to improve. Technically, BZ2603 has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, and the MACD green bar has widened, but the single - day K - line has a long lower shadow. Pay attention to the support near 5682 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the pure benzene futures main contract is 5763 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the settlement price is 5732 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan. The trading volume is 5189 lots, down 394 lots; the open interest is 12994 lots, up 615 lots. The mainstream price in the East China market is 5860 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the mainstream price in the North China market is 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northeast region is 5700 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of hydrobenzene in Jiangsu is 5825 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the mainstream price in Shanxi is 5740 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea is 699 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China is 709.5 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 68.38 US dollars/barrel, up 1.05 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan is 583.75 US dollars/ton, down 1.5 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output is 45.7 tons, up 0.16 tons. The port inventory at the end of the week is 10.6 tons, down 0.1 tons. The production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 73.24%, down 0.2 percentage points; the caprolactam capacity utilization rate is 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points; the phenol capacity utilization rate is 78.54%, down 0.46 percentage points; the aniline capacity utilization rate is 69.24%, down 0.1 percentage points; the adipic acid capacity utilization rate is 64.3%, up 2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From September 19th to 25th, the pure benzene capacity utilization rate increased by 1.22% to 79.27% week - on - week, and the hydrobenzene capacity utilization rate increased by 4.05% to 63.99% week - on - week. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased by 1.24% to 76.37% week - on - week. As of October 9th, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 9.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33.7%. From September 19th to 25th, the profit of petroleum benzene was 419 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [2].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke remain at a relatively high level. The peak demand season and the downstream's inventory replenishment space support the price - holding confidence in the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3][4] Group 2: Industry Analysis Coke Market - During the National Day holiday, the coking coal and coke market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. Driven by downstream inventory replenishment, coke completed the first round of price increase at the beginning of the month. The price of tamping dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, and that of tamping wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton [3] - After the first - round price increase of coke, coke enterprises' profits improved. Most coke enterprises maintained a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of about 75%. Although the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected during the holiday and logistics was relatively slow, coke shipments were in an orderly manner [3] - Steel mills'开工 remained at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintaining at about 2.42 million tons, which supported the demand for raw materials [3] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market was generally stable, with individual mine prices experiencing high - level corrections. The current inventory pressure at the coal mine end was not obvious, which supported the relatively firm price [4] - Regarding imported coal, the fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal at the pithead increased from 53.54 - 54.35 US dollars to 57.3 - 58.15 US dollars, an increase of about 7%, with the equivalent warehouse price of about 770 - 800 yuan/ton. It was rumored that after the National Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance would increase the transportation capacity through automated loading and unloading, increasing the daily customs clearance volume from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000, with a one - month trial operation after the National Day, which needed continuous tracking [4]

Group 1: Sugar (Sector: Agriculture, Livestock) Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Volatile [1] Core View - After the holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures may rebound slightly, but there is strong resistance above, and the upside space is limited. The expected good production in major producing countries still suppresses the upward movement of sugar prices. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, SR601 closed at 5,479 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.02%, and at 5,493 yuan/ton in the night session; SR605 closed at 5,437 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.09%, and at 5,458 yuan/ton in the night session. [1] - **Important Information**: - The closing price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.32 cents/lb, with a daily decrease of 1.92%; the closing price of the London white sugar main contract was 451.3 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.57%. [1] - The spot transaction price of Guangxi white sugar before the holiday was 5,658 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. [1] - In September, Brazil exported 3,245,837.61 tons of sugar, a year-on-year decrease of 16%. The average daily export volume was 147,538.07 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20%. [1] - In the first half of September, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 15.72% year - on - year to 3.62 million tons. [1] - On September 30, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8,968, a daily decrease of 13. [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit on sugar long positions opportunely and wait for opportunities to short at high prices. [1] Group 2: Red Dates (Sector: Agriculture, Livestock) Report Industry Investment Rating - Red dates: Volatile [3] Core View - Before the large - scale harvest of red dates, the futures market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the game on the opening price of new dates and the trends of long and short funds. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, CJ601 closed at 10,820 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.87%; CJ605 closed at 10,865 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.87%. [3] - **Important Information**: - As of September 26, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9,203 tons, a decrease of 44 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. [3] - Before the holiday, the reference price of special - grade red dates in the Hebei market was 10.5 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg; the price of first - grade red dates was stable. [3] - Before the holiday, 3 trucks of red dates arrived at Guangzhou Ruyifang, the same as the previous day. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Treat the CJ601 contract as volatile in the short term, and recommend high - selling and low - buying. In the medium - to - long term, short far - month contracts at high prices. [3] Group 3: Rubber (Sector: Energy, Chemical) Report Industry Investment Rating - Rubber: Volatile and Weak [4] Core View - After the holiday, the domestic rubber futures market is expected to remain weak and volatile. Although there is some support from the heavy rainfall in Thailand, the overseas rubber market does not provide obvious support, and the domestic fundamentals remain unchanged. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Review**: As of September 30, RU2601 closed at 15,375 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.61%; NR2511 closed at 12,435 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.04%; BR2511 closed at 11,340 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.79%. [4] - **Important Information**: - In September, the average monthly price of Thai latex was 55.79 Thai baht/kg, a month - on - month increase of 2.33%; the average monthly price of cup lump was 51.46 Thai baht/kg, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. [4] - In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 52.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 412.14 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47%. [4] - As of September 28, 2025, the general trade inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao decreased by 0.46 million tons to 38.71 million tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 1.18%. [4] - In September, the average monthly price of Shanghai full - latex was 14,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 367 yuan/ton from the previous month; the average monthly price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao market was 14,966 yuan/ton, an increase of 458 yuan/ton from the previous month. [4] - In September, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises increased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.35 percentage points. [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the previous short positions and wait and see as the rubber fundamentals currently lack positive support. [4]