当地时间1月29日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，大型科技股多数上涨。苹果披露的最新一期财报显示，公司营收与旗下产品iPhone的收入均创历史新 高，超出市场预期。美国科技巨头微软股价重挫，跌近10%。 商品方面，国际金银现货价格一度重挫，随后快速回升，期现货价格走势分化。 美股三大指数涨跌不一 Wind数据显示，截至当地时间1月29日收盘，道指涨0.11%，标普500指数跌0.13%，纳指跌0.72%。 美国大型科技股多数上涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数跌0.81%。个股方面，META涨逾10%；苹果、谷歌涨近1%，英伟达涨0.52%，亚马逊跌0.53%，特斯 拉跌3.45%；微软股价重挫，跌近10%。 | < W | | 万得美国科技七巨头指数(MAGS) | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 66474.27 -544.13 -0.81% | | | | | 老彩 成分 | 资讯 相关基金 | | | 月度收益 | | 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ◆ | lil | | 脸书(META PLATF | | 738.310 | 10.40% | -0.11% ...

美国总统特朗普在29日举行的内阁会议上表示，他将在下周公布美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席的提名 人选。 鲍威尔在特朗普首个总统任期内被提名为美联储主席，于2018年2月上任，后在拜登政府时期获得提名 连任，其任期将于今年5月15日结束。 特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔，并威胁解除鲍威尔职务。 根据美国法定程序，美联储主席由美国总统提名人选，经国会参议院批准后任职。 （文章来源：新华财经） 特朗普当天早些时候在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威尔"再次拒绝降息"，并声称美国利率应该在世界 上处于最低水平。 特朗普还称，美联储下一任主席将"干得不错"，美联储目前利率"高得不可接受"。 美联储28日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不 变。 ...

1月28日，在美国首都华盛顿，美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔出席记者会。 新华社发 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普在29日举行的内阁会议上表示，他将在下周公布美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席的提名人选。 特朗普当天早些时候在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威尔"再次拒绝降息"，并声称美国利率应该在世界上处于最低水平。 特朗普还称，美联储下一任主席将"干得不错"，美联储目前利率"高得不可接受"。 据新华社报道，美国联邦储备委员会28日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间 不变，符合市场预期。美联储主席鲍威尔会后回避有关自己未来去向的提问，但建议继任者不要卷入政治纷争。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，现有指标显示美国经济活动在"稳健扩张"，但经济前景的不确定性仍 在高位。就业增长持续低迷，失业率有一些企稳迹象，通胀仍处较高水平。 鲍威尔在当日下午举行的发布会上表示，美联储未来的货币政策决定将基于新的数据。 鲍威尔回避了有关新任美联储主席提名后过渡期、近期美元汇率波动和他自己遭受刑事调查等话题的提问。不过，他表示，如 果央行失去独立性，将很难恢复。他本人和同事均 ...

特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔，并威胁解除鲍威尔职务。 根据美国法定程序，美联储主席由美国总统提名人选，经国会参议院批准后任职。（完） 特朗普还称，美联储下一任主席将"干得不错"，美联储目前利率"高得不可接受"。 美联储28日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不 变。 鲍威尔在特朗普首个总统任期内被提名为美联储主席，于2018年2月上任，后在拜登政府时期获得提名 连任，其任期将于今年5月15日结束。 新华社纽约1月29日电（记者刘亚南）美国总统特朗普在29日举行的内阁会议上表示，他将在下周公布 美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席的提名人选。 特朗普当天早些时候在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威尔"再次拒绝降息"，并声称美国利率应该在世界 上处于最低水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% during the meeting on January 28, 2026, signaling a cautious approach amid stabilizing inflation and labor market conditions [1][3]. Economic: Dual Risk Improvement - The U.S. economy showed strong performance in Q4 2025, supported by resilient consumer spending. Indicators such as the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims suggest stabilization in the labor market [3]. - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points since September 2025, leading to a peak in the unemployment rate, reducing the necessity for further rate cuts [3]. - Despite improvements, risks of "no job expansion" remain due to past over-hiring, slowed net immigration, and general economic uncertainty, although productivity gains support economic stability [3]. Policy: Data Dependency, Holding Steady - The decision to pause rate cuts received broad support, with only two dissenting votes from the minority faction. The current rate is viewed as at the upper end of the neutral range, indicating low necessity for further cuts [5]. - Powell avoided discussing political pressures during the press conference and emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence [5]. Outlook: Caution on Rate Cut Expectations - The Trump administration's push for monetary easing could reignite rate cut expectations, with a significant chance of the policy rate falling below 3% within the year [6]. - The administration is also advocating for lower credit card rates and increased purchases of mortgage-backed securities to reduce mortgage rates, potentially applying more pressure on the Federal Reserve [6]. Strategy: Market Expectations Slightly Dovish - The market reacted mildly to the Fed's decision to maintain rates, initially responding to a hawkish statement but later balancing out due to Powell's more neutral tone [7]. - The U.S. Treasury yields flattened, with the 2-year at 3.57%, 5-year at 3.83%, 10-year at 4.24%, and 30-year at 4.86%. The dollar index rose slightly by 0.13% to 96.344 [7]. - The market sentiment remains stable and cautious, with expectations for short-term Treasury GC repos to maintain a range-bound oscillation [7].

中银国际固定收益研究 Fixed Income Research 中银国际固定收益研究 BOCI Fixed Income Research 2026. 01. 29 Wiley Huang (黄为一), CFA (852) 3988 6324 wileywy.huang@bocigroup.com Wu Qiong (吴琼), CFA (852) 3988 6926 qiong.wu@bocigroup.com Rates, Currencies & Credits China Fixed Income Research 利率、汇率、信用 中国固定收益研究 1 月 FOMC：按兵不动、模糊指引 本次会议波澜不惊。鉴于 12 月美联储已暗示将放缓降息步伐，加之 近期失业率回落、通胀依然高企，一系列数据进一步强化了"按兵不动" 的基调。因此，1 月 FOMC 维持利率不变符合市场一致预期。 会议声明措辞略显鹰派，主要反映近期经济的进展。 新闻发布会 Powell 基调中性偏鸽，对冲鹰派声明。 重要的披露和认证位于此报告的背面。 Important disclosures and certifications a ...

"美国通胀与劳动力市场或将释放大量矛盾信号，对美联储及其货币政策带来挑战。" 瑞银首席美国经 济学家Jonathan Pingle在接受记者专访时表示，美联储今年最大的政策驱动因素将是劳动力市场，目前 失业率仍处于略高水平，到年底大约维持在4.5%左右，这样的疲软程度足以支撑美联储今年实施两次 降息。无论新任美联储主席是谁，即使不立即降息，也会逐步推动利率下行。Pingle认为，关税传导效 应延缓了美国整体通胀下降的进程，上半年通胀将保持在高位，但2027年通胀有望回落。对于今年美国 股市前景，Pingle持相对乐观态度，预期今年依然会有不错表现。（21财经） 来源：滚动播报 ...

新华社纽约1月29日电 综述｜美联储进入观望模式 新华社记者刘亚南 由于美国宏观经济和就业指标有所改善，美国联邦储备委员会在28日结束的货币政策会议上决定维持利 率不变，再次进入观望模式。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会当天发布的公告显示，现有指标显示美国经济前景的不确定性仍在 高位。就业增长持续低迷，失业率有一些企稳迹象，通胀仍处较高水平。从通胀和就业形势看，暂时没 有继续降息的迫切性。当天的决定也与鲍威尔在2025年12月货币政策会议后释放将暂停降息的信号一 致。 鲍威尔在28日举行的记者会上表示，虽然新增就业岗位数量依然处于低位，但失业率已经显现出一些企 稳迹象，通胀则依然在一定程度上处于高位。 高盛集团资产管理部门固定收益和流动性解决方案业务全球共同负责人凯·黑格表示，美联储很可能会 暂停降息，但受通胀回落等因素影响，预计美联储将在今年晚些时候重启降息。 安永会计师事务所全球战略咨询部门首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科表示，由于劳动力市场基本面逐渐走 软，个人消费支出价格指数涨幅预计在上半年仅略低于3%并在年底降至2.5%，美联储今年首次降息很 可能不会早于6月。 达科预计美联储今年会降息50个基点。他认 ...

黄金方面： 美联储1月份议息会议暂缓降息，将利率水平维持在3.5%—3.75%区间。美联储主席鲍威尔重申当前利率处于中性区间，美联储 的货币政策没有预定路线，需要后续用数据说话。特别要注意鲍威尔警告，其继任者最好远离政治。鲍威尔和特朗普的较劲仍 在继续，美元短期存在反弹的风险。 地缘政治方面看，美国总统特朗普警告，对伊朗下一次袭击将会更加严重，称留给伊朗的时间不多了，美以仍然可能对伊朗采 取军事行动。伊朗外长表示，伊朗武装力量高度戒备，将对任何侵略作出回应。地缘摩擦的不确定性，仍将在避险方面为金价 提供支撑。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前黄金市场处在多头氛围的市场情绪当中，特朗普继续炒作下一任美联储主席人 选，叠加地缘摩擦升温，黄金延续偏强运行将是大概率事件。 技术面：日线上，行情延续上行表现异常强势，短期行情延续上行的概率比较大。指标上看，20日和62日均线延续上行，多头 趋势明显。短期关注行情回调测试5500美元一线支撑情况。 原油方面： 地缘政治是近期影响油价的关键因素。美国国务卿卢比奥表示，特朗普政府准备动用武力，确保委内瑞拉代总统在最大程度上 和美国合作。另外在美国和伊朗就限制伊朗核计 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts is in line with market expectations, and the interest rate guidance reflects significant internal differences among officials. Powell emphasized that the current policy is not "significantly tight," and raising interest rates is not the basic assumption for anyone's next move. There is still a possibility of interest rate cuts this year, sending a dovish signal. The Fed is likely to open the window for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to the support of the short - term US economic fundamentals, the marginal mitigation of the downward risk in the employment market and the upward risk of inflation, and the better - than - expected economic resilience shown by retail sales data [1][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Decision - On the early morning of January 29, 2026, after three consecutive interest rate cuts since September 2025, the Fed suspended interest rate cuts as expected, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% - 3.75%, and the reserve balance rate and discount rate at 3.65% and 3.75% respectively. Since the start of the interest rate cut cycle in September 2024, the Fed has cut interest rates by a total of 175BP [1][3]. 3.2 Interest Rate Statement - The Fed's judgment on the economic outlook has improved compared to December, especially in the employment aspect. There are still differences among officials on interest rate cuts. Milan and Waller voted against the decision. Milan has voted against four times in a row, and Waller, as a potential candidate for the new Fed chairman, voted against and supported a 25BP interest rate cut. In terms of economic description, it changed from "expanding at a moderate pace" in December to "expanding at a robust pace." Regarding employment, the Fed said that "the unemployment rate has shown certain signs of stabilization." For inflation, the description changed from the trend judgment of "inflation has risen compared to the beginning of the year" in December to the absolute - level judgment of "inflation is still slightly high" [1][6][9]. 3.3 Labor Market - The downward risk of employment has been marginally alleviated, and the unemployment rate has tended to be stable. Since July 2025, the US unemployment rate has remained in the range of 4.3% - 4.5%, and the weekly initial jobless claims have not increased further. However, non - farm payrolls are still at a low level, and the scale of new jobs in the government and private sectors is relatively limited. The supply and demand sides of the employment market have slowed down, but the risk of a significant weakening has decreased significantly, reducing the need for short - term interest rate cuts and supporting the Fed's wait - and - see stance [1][11]. 3.4 Inflation - Concerns about inflation rebound have subsided, but the absolute level is still higher than the long - term target. In December, the year - on - year CPI and core CPI in the US were 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, and the month - on - month were 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Among the sub - items, the prices of household goods and clothing related to tariffs in core commodities continued to rise, the prices of leisure services increased significantly, the prices of education services decreased significantly month - on - month, and housing inflation remained resilient. Although the December inflation data alleviated market concerns about inflation rebound, the absolute level of inflation has not returned to the policy target, which restricts the Fed's subsequent easing operations [1][16]. 3.5 Other Issues - Powell did not make substantial responses to political issues such as the Cook case, the Department of Justice subpoena, and the dollar fluctuation at the press conference. He has no plans for his future after his term as chairman expires in May. He also said that the lawsuit against Fed Governor Cook might be the most significant case in the Fed's history, emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence, and suggested that the next Fed chairman should stay away from elected politics [1][18].