Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector continues to show strong performance, with military ETFs experiencing significant growth amid rising global military expenditures and geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Military ETFs (512660) have surged over 3%, with trading volume exceeding 350 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - The military ETF has seen a year-to-date share increase of over 40%, reaching a total size of over 15 billion yuan, making it the largest in its category [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The NATO summit has led to a commitment from member countries to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, highlighting a global trend of rising defense budgets [1]. - China's military spending as a percentage of GDP remains below the average of major military powers, suggesting significant growth potential in defense expenditure [1]. Group 3: Domestic Developments - Recent announcements from Pakistan regarding the acquisition of advanced Chinese military equipment, such as the J-35 stealth fighter and HQ-19 air defense system, indicate growing international recognition of Chinese military products [1]. - The military sector is expected to benefit from the completion of defense construction tasks and long-term goals set for 2027 and 2035, which will likely drive demand for military equipment [3]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - The military sector is projected to experience a profit bottoming out in Q4 2024, marking the first negative net profit quarter in a decade, but signs of recovery are expected in Q1 2025 with improvements in gross and net profit margins [1][3]. - Total prepayments in the military sector have increased by 9.35% year-on-year, indicating a rebound in downstream orders and potential for upward performance in the future [1]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to consider military ETFs (512660) as they cover the entire military industry chain and offer good elasticity and defensive attributes, making them a valuable tool for capitalizing on industry opportunities [5].

食品饮料ETF(515170)跟踪中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数，聚焦白酒、饮料乳品、调味发酵品等高壁 垒、强韧性板块，前十大成分股囊括"茅五泸汾洋"，帮助投资者一键配置"吃喝板块"核心资产。相较于 其成分股动辄数万、数十万的最低投资门槛，食品饮料ETF是小资金参与板块投资的便捷工具。(联接A 类：013125；联接C类：013126)。 近期，五粮液（000858）、泸州老窖（000568）、酒鬼酒（000799）召开股东大会。五粮液来看，上半 年宴席市场规模和开瓶率实现良好增长，八代五粮液动态适应市场节奏，对20个重点城市实现终端直 配，提升终端管控能力；泸州老窖来看，公司加大下沉市场开拓，加速中低度酒和创新酒饮的开发，目 前28度国窖1573已经研发成功，将适时投放市场，16度、6度等更低度数的白酒产品也在同步开发中； 酒鬼酒来看，公司以差异化的产品满足多元化市场的需求，已分步启动低端、低度、小酒"两低一小"的 产品战略，重点凸显性价比。 估值端看，白酒板块整体估值偏低，酒企回购或增持动作较多，分红力度持续提升，后续关注内需政策 发布及白酒作为低配板块有望迎来资金流入。大众品板块方面，在外卖爆发利好与旺季 ...

国泰海通证券认为，2025年中国股市估值逻辑在内不在外，根本动力来自中国产业创新的不断涌现与股 市贴现率的系统性降低，推动增量资金入市。外部局势的缓和，更强化了内部确定性逻辑的延展。因 此，判断7月底之前股市仍有上升空间：1)中国股市的无风险利率实质性降低，中长期资金和民间资本 入市已进入历史转折点。2)人民币由过去的贬值预期转向稳定甚至略升值的预期，也是中国资产重估的 重要推力。3)及时、得当与合理的宏观政策，更重视投资者回报的资本市场基础制度改革，对于改变投 资人面对风险的保守态度具有关键意义。 中信证券认为，相比2014年底和2019年初，当前A股市场从估值上来看可能还不支持纯粹流动性驱动的 行情，但如果美联储在7月意外降息，并且中国央行同步宽松，可能成为引燃市场情绪的一个催化。从 板块轮动来看，活跃资金或正从医药和消费切向科技和金融，红利也开始滞涨。结构性机会仍将是贯穿 中报季的话题，指数型机会可能还需要等三季度末到四季度。 财信证券认为，随着风险事件消退，目前由风险偏好回升驱动的反弹行情演绎较为充分，在经济基本 面、增量政策、流动性尚未出现明显拐点时，市场趋势性行情或需等待。但在中央汇金类"平准基金 ...

当前工业金属市场正处于预期修复的初期阶段。在近期大幅预期修正之前，市 场普遍处于"强现实弱预期"状态，受淡季预期、下游需求疲软以及全球环境 不确定性等因素压制。目前，铜和铝板块的标的普遍处于低估值区间。 工业金属！强现实+预期改善+低估值 20250627 摘要 全球降息预期、中美关系缓和及流动性放松构成有色金属板块上涨的主 要宏观驱动力。美联储降息预期提振以美元计价的铜价，并降低融资成 本，支撑终端需求增长，缓解了对全球经济分裂的担忧。 铜和铝库存均处于近十年低位，LME 铜库存仅为全球 1.2 天消费量，铝 库存大幅缩减，市场可流通库存量极少，表明工业金属基本面良好，对 期货市场形成支撑，并反映了现货市场的强劲需求。 中国电解铝产能利用率高达 98%，接近理论上限，未来几年供给受国家 产能天花板和海外电力基础设施限制，供给增速显著放缓，远低于往年 水平，下半年供给相对上半年更加趋紧。 年初铜矿供给增量预期乐观，但实际兑现度显著下降，受智利停电、印 尼矿场关闭及艾芬豪矿区事故影响，全球铜矿增量下调，供给增速从 2%以上降至不足 2%。 2025 年中国电力行业对铜的需求加速增长，国家电网基础设施投资和 招投 ...

联合电话会议：如何看待大金融板块走势的分化？ 20260629 摘要 银行板块作为核心红利资产，2022 年至 2024 年已形成强共识，受长 线资金青睐，呈现向上趋势，而央行货币政策调整预期及季末调仓需求 导致近期银行股小幅回调。 中长期来看，银行板块因其股息率相对优势（国有大行加权平均股息率 4.07%）和业绩分红确定性，对配置资金（尤其是险资）具有吸引力， 负债成本下降也为银行股上涨打开空间。 银行业绩稳定性源于丰厚的资产基础和较小的业绩波动，2024 年上市 银行整体利润增速为 2.35%，预计 2025 年保持稳定增长，自营债券浮 盈、投资收益和拨备是主要支撑因素。 边际变化显示息差降幅有望收窄，利好银行业绩增速。2025 年一季度 净息差环比下降 9 个 BP，优于 2024 年一季度下降 13 个 BP，受益于 存款利率下调等政策。 资金流向显示，2025 年以来南向资金持续增配港股银行股，公募基金 对内地市场金融板块配置比例提升至 3.75%，银行板块低配比例接近 11 个百分点，未来仍有增配空间。 Q&A 今年以来大金融板块内部走势分化的现象是什么原因导致的？ 今年以来，大金融板块内部走势分 ...

Group 1 - The core investment strategy focuses on a balanced approach, utilizing low-valuation growth assets as offensive tools and dividend-paying assets as defensive shields to achieve moderate returns with low drawdowns [1][2] - The investment portfolio is characterized by a preference for stable business models with low PE ratios, which provide defensive capabilities during market downturns, while also allowing for offensive strategies during bullish phases [2][3] - Since the manager's tenure, the fund has achieved a cumulative return of 14.92%, significantly outperforming the benchmark and the CSI 300 index, while maintaining effective drawdown control during market corrections [3] Group 2 - The fund manager employs a diversified holding strategy, with 61 major stocks and the top ten holdings accounting for less than 30% of the total portfolio, allowing for greater flexibility in trading and risk management [4][5] - The investment approach emphasizes a "high sell, low buy" strategy based on reasonable valuation assumptions, aiming to minimize losses and maximize returns through disciplined trading [4][5] - The manager's focus is primarily on sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, light industry, textiles, consumer goods, and tourism, while maintaining a selective approach to technology stocks, only investing in those with strong performance backing [5][6]

Core Viewpoints - The current market valuation may not support a purely liquidity-driven rally, but unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China could act as catalysts for market sentiment [1] - Structural opportunities will be a key topic during the mid-year reporting season, while index opportunities may need to wait until late Q3 or Q4 [1] - The electrification process is accelerating globally, with a focus on the full industrial chain's monetization capabilities in the electrification and AI sectors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent market changes indicate that there is no shortage of money, with trading volumes reaching approximately 1.5 trillion yuan [2] - The market is poised for potential upward movement, contingent on three triggers: attractive valuations, strong current and future fundamental expectations [2][3] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile yet upward trend, supported by the influx of medium to long-term funds and favorable policies [7][11] Group 2: Sector Focus - Key investment themes include domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and sectors that have been underweighted by funds [5][7] - The technology sector is anticipated to regain market attention, particularly with the upcoming IPOs of tech companies and innovations in AI and military industries [1][6] - The focus on high-dividend assets and the technology sector, especially those related to AI capital expenditures, is expected to provide investment opportunities [16] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The market is currently experiencing a phase of structural improvement, but it is not yet at the level of a bull market [6][10] - The potential for a bull market is contingent on either a positive shift in earnings or policy direction by Q3 [10] - The overall economic recovery is expected to be driven by domestic consumption and export growth, with a cautious outlook on external risks [4][10]

本周行情综述 铜：本周 LME 铜价+2.26%到 9879.00 美元/吨，沪铜+2.47%到 7.99 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周进口铜精矿加工费 周度指数跌至-44.81 美元/吨。截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存较周一微增 0.05 万吨至 13.01 万吨，较上周四下降 1.58 万吨。消费端，据 SMM，本周国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率环比下滑至 74.01%，环比下滑 1.81 个百分点，较 预期值低 2.22 个百分点，同比上升 4.99 个百分点；本周漆包线行业机台开机率环比下降 0.23 个百分点至 81.6%， 周订单量环比微降 0.26%；本周国内黄铜棒生产企业开工率持续走低，较上周回落 0.38 个百分点至 50.8%。 铝：本周 LME 铝价+1.31%到 2595.00 美元/吨，沪铝+0.56%到 2.06 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周四国内主流消费地 电解铝锭库存 46.3 万吨，较本周一减少 0.1 万吨，环比上周四增加 1.4 万吨；国内主流消费地铝棒库存 14.25 万吨， 较周一减少 0.2 万吨，环比上周四增加 0.8 万吨；国内主流消费地再生铝合金锭社 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月29日 公募 REITs 周报（第 23 期） 指数收跌，消费 REITs 迎新机遇 核心观点 固定收益周报 主要结论：本周中证 REITs 指数收跌，产权类 REITs 和特许经营权类 REITs 平均周涨跌幅分别为-2.1%、-1.8%。从主要指数周涨跌幅对比来看：中证转 债>沪深 300>中证全债>中证 REITs，REITs 全周日均换手率较前一周略有上 升。全市场各类型 REITs 收跌，能源、生态、市政设施类 REITs 跌幅较小。 截至 6 月 27 日，公募 REITs 年化现金分派率均值为 6.3%，显著高于当前主 流固收资产的静态收益率。产权 REITs 股息率比中证红利股股息率均值低 143BP,经营权类 REITs 内部收益率均值与十年期国债收益率利差为 209BP。 央行等六部门发布《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，支持符合 条件的消费基础设施发行 REITs，消费 REITs 发展迎来新机遇。华夏北京保 障房 REIT 完成国内首单租赁住房扩募，租赁住房 REITs 实现"首发+扩募" 闭环，奠定再融资常态化范式。 中证 REITs 指数周 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 有朋友问螺丝钉，能不能针对 全球股票指数、美债指数等 ， 做个估值表。 目前内地能买到的、投资海外市场的基金品种不多。 不过在海外这些品种比较丰富。 可以先从指数估值的角度，了解海外市场不同品种的估值情况。 全球股票市场本周上涨超3%。 美股、欧股、港股、日股等涨幅也都超过3%。 全球股票指数组合（见下文介绍），也创下上线以来的新高。 不过这个组合也最好是在4-5星阶段投资，例如在4月初全球市场下跌的时候，当时全球股票指数也回到过4.2星。 2. 全球股票市场上涨，也是因为最近关税危机缓解、美元利率下降。 4月初特朗普宣布要增加关税。 市场担心「关税增加-会提高商品和服务的价格-导致美元通货膨胀率提高-进而导致美联储降息节奏放缓」。 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。 每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 海外市场指数数量很多，后面大家 有希望增加的品种 ，可以反馈给螺丝钉。 目前螺丝钉后台系统，已经覆盖海外主流的几百只指数品种。 1. 本周全球股票市场大幅上涨。 全球股票市场指数，回到了3.2星。 不过随后几周关 ...