Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2025 is at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment[4] - The production index and new orders index are both above 50%, suggesting a recovery in both production and demand[4] - The new export orders index has also shown a slight increase, reflecting a positive trend in external demand[4] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The increase in June's PMI is supported by more working days compared to May, which historically correlates positively with PMI readings[4][11] - External uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policies, have decreased, alleviating downward pressure on the PMI[5] - Despite the improvements, the PMI remains below the neutral line, indicating ongoing structural risks in the economy[6] Group 3: Sector Performance - The PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises in June are 51.2%, 48.6%, and 47.3% respectively, with small enterprises showing a decline of 2.0 percentage points[6] - Price indices within the PMI have risen but remain below the neutral line, indicating continued pressure on pricing power due to tariff uncertainties[7] - The construction sector's PMI improved to 52.8%, while the services PMI slightly decreased to 50.1%, highlighting a divergence in sector performance[8][22]

Core Viewpoint - In June, China's manufacturing sector showed resilience despite entering a traditional off-season, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 49.7%, the highest level in three months, indicating an expansion in manufacturing activity [1][2]. Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, reflecting a broader improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1][3]. - The continuous rise in PMI over the past two months suggests that macroeconomic recovery is underway, supported by recent policy measures [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In June, the production index and new orders index were recorded at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating accelerated manufacturing activity and improved market demand [4][5]. - The easing of external pressures, particularly in US-China trade relations, has contributed to a stabilization in manufacturing operations and a rebound in market demand [4][5]. Export and Inventory Trends - The new export orders index rose to 47.7%, showing improvement, although it remains below the expansion threshold, indicating that domestic demand is slightly outperforming external demand [5][6]. - The finished goods inventory index increased by 1.6 percentage points to 48.1%, while raw materials inventory rose by 0.6 percentage points to 48.0%, suggesting a growing willingness among enterprises to replenish stocks [5][6]. Price Trends in Manufacturing - The indices for major raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices both increased by 1.5 percentage points to 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [5][6]. Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods all maintained PMIs above 50, indicating continued expansion, while high-energy-consuming industries showed slight improvement with a PMI of 47.8% [5][6]. Enterprise-Level Insights - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, indicating continued expansion, while medium-sized enterprises saw a recovery with a PMI of 48.6%. However, small enterprises experienced a decline with a PMI of 47.3% [6]. - The overall economic resilience suggests that, barring significant external shocks, China's manufacturing sector is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in the second half of the year [6].

重点行业PMI稳中有升 产需指数同步扩张 国家统计局数据显示，从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，原材料库存指数 和从业人员指数低于临界点。 6月30日，国家统计局发布最新数据，6月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。据了解，4月份，制 造业PMI为49%，比上月下降1.5个百分点。5月份，制造业PMI为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点。6月份，制造业PMI继续上升至49.7%。 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读表示，6月份，制造业PMI升至49.7%，在调查的21个行业中有11个位于扩张区间，比上月增加4个，制造 业景气面有所扩大。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对21世纪经济报道记者表示，6月制造业PMI较上月回升0.2个百分点，好于季节性。其中，6月生产指数较上月回升0.3个百 分点，6月是传统生产淡季，但今年"淡季不淡"，企业生产仍在加快扩张。 前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理杨德龙对21世纪经济报道记者表示，我国制造业PMI连续两个月出现回升，这反映出当前随 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for June is reported at 49.7%, indicating a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, suggesting continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - Among the 21 surveyed industries, 11 are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month, reflecting a broader improvement in manufacturing conditions [3] - The production index and new orders index stand at 51% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities and market demand [3] Group 2 - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods have maintained PMIs in the expansion zone for two consecutive months, with production and new orders indices above 53% [5] - The PMI for high-energy-consuming industries, while still below the critical point, has shown signs of recovery this month [5] - The overall manufacturing PMI and its sub-indices reflect a rebound trend, indicating that internal economic momentum is gradually being released and resilience in economic growth is strengthening [7] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June is reported at 50.5%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [8] - The service sector's performance remains stable, with financial services, capital market services, and insurance industries showing business activity indices above 60%, indicating rapid growth in these areas [8] - The construction sector, particularly civil engineering, has seen a significant rebound, with business activity indices remaining above 55% for three consecutive months, reflecting robust progress in infrastructure projects [8][10]

Group 1 - The article highlights the release of China's official manufacturing PMI for June, indicating the current state of the manufacturing sector [1] - It also mentions the European Central Bank's central banking forum taking place in Sintra, which may influence monetary policy discussions [1]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Important economic data and events are scheduled for the upcoming week, including China's manufacturing PMI and the US non-farm payroll report [1][2] - Key Point 2: The "big and beautiful" bill proposed by Trump is expected to undergo a final vote, with less than a week remaining before the July 4 deadline [1] - Key Point 3: The European Central Bank will hold a forum in Sintra, where major central bank leaders will engage in discussions [1][2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Various economic indicators will be released, including the US API and EIA crude oil inventory reports, as well as employment data from ADP [2] - Key Point 2: The week will also see the release of service sector PMIs for multiple regions, including the US and Eurozone [2] - Key Point 3: OPEC+ members will convene to decide on production policies for August [2]

7 月流动性会更松吗？ 2025 年 06 月 29 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 经济动态跟踪 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com ➢ 6 月流动性进入年内"最松"状态，展望 7 月，流动性有哪些关注点？ 第一，参考近年规律，7 月市场往往会迎来"自发性"宽松。近年来，经济运行 基本遵循一季度"开门红"，随后增长动能渐趋平缓的规律，财政、金融更多靠前 发力。因此在 7 月份，政府债和信贷需求很难构成流动性"冲击"。 第二，央行对于经济的判断，虽然还不具有"紧迫性"，但已开始关注下行风险。 往后看，重点关注关税扰动下的制造业景气波折。经验表明，每当制造业 PMI 连 续 3 个月（或以上）跌入收缩区间，资金面往往会转松，有时甚至会触发总量货 币政策调整。再加上近期美联储降息预期"再起"，国内货币宽松的空间随之打 开。 第三，在工具选择上，货币政策更加注重灵活性和时效度，短期内重启国债买卖 的必要性不高。7 月并非财政"大月"，此外，5 月以来央 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the non - ferrous metals sector are strengthening. It is recommended to have more long - positions in copper and aluminum and short - positions in zinc, nickel, and tin [173][202] - In the second half of 2025, copper and aluminum are expected to be relatively strong, lead to fluctuate, and zinc, nickel, and tin to be weak [173] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01. Review of the Non - Ferrous Metals Sector in the First Half of the Year - Since the beginning of 2025, the trends of CRB metal and the composite index are similar, with narrowing volatility. The domestic and international prices of non - ferrous and precious metals are also similar. After adjusting for exchange rates, the prices of LME copper and SHFE copper show the same trend [7] - The price fluctuations of non - ferrous and precious metals vary. As of June 20, the order from strong to weak is: gold > silver > tin > copper > lead > aluminum > nickel > zinc, with gold rising by 28% and zinc falling by 11.38% [7] - Macroeconomic factors still have a strong impact on prices. The consumption of non - ferrous metals is highly positively correlated with the economic cycle [14][26] - The relationship between overseas inventories of non - ferrous metals and prices is negative. Different metals show different price and inventory change characteristics [34] - There are correlations between the prices of mining ends and the overall metal prices, as well as between processing fees and prices for different metals [60] 02. Outlook on Allocation Strategies - Volatility indicators of gold, aluminum, tin, etc. provide trading opportunities. Different metals have different volatility trends, such as the volatility of COMEX gold falling but remaining at a high level, and the volatility of COMEX silver rising rapidly [74][86] - Through term spreads, it is found that gold and silver may follow macro - logic, while copper, aluminum and other varieties follow fundamental logic. Different metals have different price change rates, positive - spread annualized returns, and logical points [92] - The uncertainty of the US economy and tariff policies has not strongly influenced prices yet. The US economic data shows mixed signals, and tariff policies affect the export of non - ferrous metal - related products [95][107] - The consumption potential of South Asia, Southeast Asia and other regions is being released. Although affected by US tariff policies, some countries in these regions are implementing economic stimulus measures, and the copper consumption in some countries is increasing [115][123] - The domestic demand for non - ferrous metals is distributed in construction, power, transportation, home appliances, etc. Different metals have different end - use distributions [124][125] - In terms of power grid investment, the policy supports the development of the power grid, with increasing investment growth rates. Power investment is inclined towards the power grid, especially the distribution network [127][132] - In terms of durable goods consumption, policies support home appliance replacement and new - energy vehicle sales. The sales of traditional fuel vehicles are declining, while the sales of air - conditioners are expected to maintain growth [139][147] - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization. Although still in a downward trend, the decline rates of investment, construction area, and completion area are narrowing [148] 03. Conclusions and Recommendations - The fundamentals of the non - ferrous metals sector are strengthening. It is recommended to have more long - positions in copper and aluminum and short - positions in zinc, nickel, and tin [173][202] - In the second half of 2025, copper and aluminum are expected to be relatively strong, lead to fluctuate, and zinc, nickel, and tin to be weak. Specific trading ideas and driving logics are provided for each metal [173] - The simulated yield curves of non - ferrous metal prices show different trends for different metals. Copper and aluminum are in a large Back structure, which is beneficial for long - position roll - overs [174][176] - For copper, in 2025, the global copper mine supply shortage is expected to intensify, and the refined copper supply may have a shortage in the second half of the year. The market trading atmosphere is still bullish, and inventories are at a relatively low level [189][192]

Group 1: Oil Market Performance - Domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract showed a significant decline, closing down 8.13% at 508.6 yuan/barrel after reaching a high of 516.8 yuan/barrel and a low of 500.2 yuan/barrel [1] - Fuel oil main contract fell 5.96% to 3015 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil main contract dropped 2.85% to 3716 yuan/ton [1] - The geopolitical situation has led to a reduction in speculative long positions, contributing to the decline in oil prices [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical risk index has risen significantly due to Middle Eastern conflicts, increasing the risk premium in the oil futures market [2] - Despite a decrease in geopolitical tensions, concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East persist, maintaining strong demand for immediate supply [1][2] - U.S. manufacturing data shows marginal improvement, with the Market Manufacturing PMI at 52%, indicating ongoing industrial expansion [2] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories, with crude oil stocks down by 4.23 million barrels, indicating limited supply pressure during the consumption peak [2] - Gasoline inventories increased by 764,000 barrels, exceeding analyst expectations [2] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, while U.S. crude oil production remains at a historical high of 13.431 million barrels per day [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Recommendations - Analysts suggest cautious trading strategies, recommending light positions in crude oil put options due to ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, influenced by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - The potential for supply disruptions is increasing, and close monitoring of geopolitical changes is advised [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the game of policy expectations, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Last week, Treasury bond yields showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Although social financing data increased year-on-year, it was mainly driven by government bonds, and credit demand remained weak. Coupled with the manufacturing PMI still below the boom-bust line, it strengthened the market's judgment of a weak economy, supporting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions and the escalation of the Middle East situation increased risk aversion, which was also beneficial to the bond market. Despite the signal of financial opening released at the Lujiazui Forum, there were no more-than-expected easing measures, which cooled the market's expectation of the central bank's buying and selling of Treasury bonds, causing interest rate bonds to rise and then fall. In June, the LPR remained unchanged, the stock market weakened, and the capital side was relatively stable. The bond market generally rose, and the market's expectation of easing policies in the second half of the year increased. Ultra-long-term Treasury bond trading was active, but it was still restricted by the policy vacuum period [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a month-on-month change of -0.20% and a year-on-year change of -0.10%. China's PPI (monthly) had a month-on-month change of -0.40% and a year-on-year change of -3.30% [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%. M2 year-on-year was 7.90%, a decrease of 0.10% and a decline rate of 1.25%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, an increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 1.02% [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.95, a decrease of 0.43 and a decline rate of 0.44%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1754, a decrease of 0.011 and a decline rate of 0.15%. SHIBOR 7 days was 1.63, an increase of 0.13 and a growth rate of 8.82%. DR007 was 1.67, an increase of 0.16 and a growth rate of 10.67%. R007 was 1.64, a decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.66%. The 3M interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.61, an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.04%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.04% [8]. 2. Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the closing price trend of Treasury bond futures' main continuous contracts and the price changes of various Treasury bond futures varieties [9][12]. 3. Money Market Capital Situation - On June 24, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 406.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.370%, 1.629%, 1.697%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Situation No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the inter - period spread trend of various Treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - varieties [36]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield [43]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract [51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the T main contract [62]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract [69]. Strategies - **Unilateral**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatility of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2509 contract is neutral. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging. The short - term fluctuation of the yield curve intensifies, and the trend still depends on the further clarification of the fundamentals and policies [4].