申万宏源研报称，牛市氛围不容易消失的判断正在验证。短期市场调整消化性价比矛盾，但调整阶段， 市场仍保持了一定热度。而新的结构行情，演绎依然非常有弹性。脉冲式调整后，市场至少是有机会的 震荡市，等待新催化、新主线指数再上台阶。市场节奏减慢，更要充分理解牛市纵深。时间已经是牛市 的朋友，核心是随着时间的推移，高景气方向会不断增加 + 居民增配权益的通道会更加顺畅，这对应 着后续胜率和赔率都会再提升。基本面只是短期新亮点有限，但中期景气方向会不断增加；性价比只是 短期性价比偏低，但中长期性价比远未极端；资金供需只是阶段性流入过快，但中长期存款搬家可能还 在底部区域。本轮牛市慢下来，确实会更好。 ...

Group 1 - The impact of retail and industrial capital on bull and bear markets is greater than that of institutional capital. Historical data shows that retail capital has larger fluctuations, with annual inflows reaching 1.5-2.5 trillion yuan during bull markets, while institutional capital peaks at 500-700 billion yuan, often misaligned with market trends [2][3][8] - Retail capital inflows are gradually increasing, with evidence that seasoned investors tend to enter the market earlier and stronger than smaller investors. The number of new accounts has been rising for three consecutive months, indicating a potential bullish trend [4][13][14] - Industrial capital outflows have increased but remain significantly lower than levels seen from 2020 to 2022. Current IPO financing is recovering but still below the 2019-2022 levels, suggesting that the intensity of industrial capital inflows has not yet reached the levels typical of late bull markets [16][17][18] Group 2 - The current assessment indicates that September's volatility has increased slightly but does not alter the overall bullish trend. The market is expected to enter a main upward wave, with structural profit-making effects observed for nearly a year [18][19] - Recent market changes show that most A-share indices have declined, with significant movements in sectors such as electrical equipment and non-bank financials. The market's performance is influenced by concentrated trading in specific sectors, which may lead to adjustments [26][30] - The report suggests a shift in investment strategy, recommending a focus on non-bank financials, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals, while also highlighting the potential for cyclical stocks to perform well under current conditions [24][25]

Group 1 - The fund market is experiencing a surge in activity, with 38 new funds launched in the first week of September, attracting a total of 27.5 billion yuan, primarily in equity products [1][2] - A notable highlight is the launch of the "Zhaoshang Balanced Optimal Fund," which achieved over 8.7 billion yuan in subscriptions on its first day, making it the first non-initiated active equity fund to sell out in one day this year [2][3] - Investor interest in the A-share market has increased, as evidenced by a rise in inquiries about market dynamics and fund allocation advice, indicating a recovery in investor confidence [1][6] Group 2 - The performance of equity funds has significantly improved, with 34 equity funds launched in a short span, raising 24.3 billion yuan, which constitutes over 88% of the total new fund issuance [2][3] - The number of new funds launched in the third quarter has reached a peak not seen since 2022, with 404 new funds initiated, and 93 funds opting for early closure due to high demand [3][4] - Some high-performing existing funds have had to impose purchase limits due to overwhelming inflows, such as the Yongying Technology Smart Selection Fund, which reduced its daily purchase limit from 1 million yuan to 10,000 yuan [4][5] Group 3 - Market sentiment remains optimistic, driven by the upward trend in the A-share market and supportive policies, although there are differing views among institutions regarding the sustainability of this sentiment [6][7] - Analysts suggest that while there is a positive outlook, caution is advised due to the accumulation of risks in the micro-structural level of the market [7][8] - The "AI+" sector has emerged as a key focus, with significant trading activity, while other thematic sectors have seen limited opportunities this year [8]

Market Insights - The rapid increase in turnover rate often indicates rising short-term adjustment pressure in the market, with historical experience showing that high turnover rates during mid-bull market phases can lead to temporary pullbacks, which do not alter the long-term trend but instead accumulate momentum for subsequent rises [1][11] - Since the end of June, the TMT sector's congestion level rose to over 40% by the end of August, nearing the early-year peak, indicating that the trading volume in the computing power sector of the ChiNext board is also approaching its early-year peak [1][15] - The liquidity supply-demand pattern remains favorable compared to the 2019-2021 period, with significant IPO fundraising in July exceeding 230 billion, although it dropped to around 30 billion in August, reflecting a lower financing scale compared to the previous bull market [1][19][21] Industry Rotation - Historical bull markets have shown that various sectors experience rotation, with the TMT sector being a clear leader from 2013 to 2015, followed by sectors like "Belt and Road" and financials taking over at different times [2][24] - The 2019-2021 bull market also witnessed multiple sectors taking turns in leading the market, with consumer stocks, electronics, and new energy sectors showing significant performance at different times [2][26] - From the current point until the end of the year, a rotation in leading styles is expected, particularly as Q4 approaches, which has historically seen an acceleration of incremental capital entering the market [2][32] Domestic Manufacturing Insights - The manufacturing PMI for August showed a marginal increase to 49.4%, indicating a slight recovery in production activities, although it remains in the contraction zone [3][33] - The non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.3%, with the service sector showing improvement while the construction sector experienced a decline [3][35] - Upstream price indices are recovering, with the main raw material purchase price index rising to 53.3%, indicating a positive trend in the supply side [3][35][38] International Employment Trends - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for August fell significantly short of expectations, with only 22,000 new jobs added compared to the anticipated 75,000, reinforcing expectations for a potential interest rate cut in September [4][14] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3%, indicating a cooling labor market, which may influence global economic conditions [4][20] Industry Configuration Recommendations - Investment themes are suggested to focus on three directions: breakthroughs in technology AI, economic recovery with a focus on strong sectors, and the continued rise of undervalued stocks [5][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of the Hang Seng Internet sector, suggesting that as the bull market progresses, funds may increasingly concentrate on fewer high-growth sectors while also considering the potential for cyclical stocks to perform well as fundamentals improve [5][32]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rebound on September 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above the 3800-point mark after a brief dip below it [2][3] - The ChiNext Index rose over 6%, indicating strong market sentiment and active trading, with more than 4800 stocks gaining [3][5] Capital Flow - Major capital inflows were observed in the battery industry, with a net inflow of 11 billion, followed by component and photovoltaic equipment sectors with 4.5 billion and 4.1 billion respectively [2] - The margin trading balance decreased to 22,795.44 billion, reflecting a reduction of 1.03 billion from the previous trading day [2] Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent market adjustments are part of a healthy bull market, requiring time to digest previous rapid gains and structural disparities [4][6] - The overall market is expected to experience a period of consolidation between 3700 and 3900 points before potentially moving higher [5][9] Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include solid-state batteries, large technology, and brokerage firms, with potential opportunities in new consumption if supportive policies are introduced [5][9] - The technology sector, particularly in AI and semiconductors, is anticipated to lead any new upward trends, alongside renewable energy and consumer electronics [9] Policy and Economic Environment - The recent revision of the public fund sales fee regulations is expected to inject new capital into the market and boost investor confidence [8] - Domestic economic recovery and supportive policies are seen as strong foundations for the market, with increasing global interest in Chinese assets [6][8]

Market Overview - The market experienced significant fluctuations throughout the week, with a notable rebound on Friday after a series of adjustments earlier in the week [1] - The ChiNext index surged over 6 points, approaching the 3000-point mark, indicating strong market activity [1] Sector Analysis - The solid-state battery sector gained attention as funds shifted away from previously dominant players, reflecting a change in market leadership [1] - The recent news regarding restrictions in the photovoltaic industry led to a surge in polysilicon futures prices, benefiting the solar and renewable energy sectors [3] Fund Flow and Investor Sentiment - The trading volume on Friday was 2.34 trillion, a decrease from the previous 3 trillion level, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [3] - Three significant news items over the weekend could influence market sentiment: 1. The new village chief issue, which is traditionally viewed as a positive sentiment driver in A-shares [3] 2. New regulations on public fund sales, which are expected to benefit individual investors and promote long-term value investing [3] 3. The U.S. non-farm payroll data, which fell short of expectations, raising the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially benefiting the A-share market [3] Technical Analysis - The market showed signs of confidence with a bullish engulfing pattern on Friday, although the lack of accompanying trading volume raises concerns about sustainability [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly fell below a key trend line but managed to recover, indicating potential for further upward movement if volume supports it [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market downturn in September does not signify the end of the upward trend, as the underlying logic supporting the market's rise remains intact [3][4][8]. Group 1: August Market Performance - The market's rise in August was supported by coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, with M2 growth at 8.8% year-on-year, indicating a high level of liquidity [5][6]. - Government bond issuance reached 8.9 trillion yuan from January to July, accounting for 75% of the annual target, which is significantly higher than the five-year average of 47% [6]. - The central government's budget expenditure increased by 3.4% year-on-year, providing direct financial support to infrastructure and related industries [6][7]. Group 2: Continued Market Support - Despite the September adjustment, the core logic supporting the bull market remains unchanged, with ongoing policy support and expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [9][10]. - A total of 5424 A-share companies reported a slight revenue increase of 0.02% year-on-year, with net profits rising by 2.45%, indicating a gradual economic recovery [9][10]. - The average daily trading volume in August reached approximately 2.3 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, and remained robust at 2.67 trillion yuan in the first four trading days of September [10]. Group 3: Market Adjustment as an Opportunity - As of September 4, the Shanghai Composite Index had retraced 3.03% from its recent peak, but this remains within a reasonable range compared to the overall gains for the year [12]. - Historical data suggests that market pullbacks often present new investment opportunities, particularly for previously sidelined funds [12][14]. - The current equity-to-bond yield ratio stands at 4.02, indicating that the stock market remains attractive relative to the bond market, historically suggesting positive performance ahead [12][14].

Group 1 - The market is expected to rebound next week, with the potential for the ChiNext index to reach new highs [1] - The current bull market is supported by a new economic cycle, with historical bull markets occurring approximately every 10 years in A-shares [1] - The Federal Reserve is likely to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts in mid-September, influenced by rising unemployment and disappointing non-farm payroll data [1] Group 2 - The rebound target for the Shanghai Composite Index is set at 3920 points, which is a significant resistance level derived from previous market highs [2] - Investors should focus on sector rotation during market fluctuations, with potential for recovery in underperforming sectors such as food and beverage, lithium batteries, consumer electronics, CXO, and liquor [2] Group 3 - Opportunities for industry performance inflection points are identified in CXO and medical devices [3] - Individual stock performance inflection points are anticipated in lithium batteries [3] - Future potential hotspots include solid-state batteries, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, and satellite networking [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that in a bull market, the main style is "the strong remain strong," but cyclical styles may perform better in the latter half [2] - Historical analysis of major styles during the bull markets of 2006-2007 and 2014-2015 shows that while the main style remains strong, cyclical styles exhibit significant excess returns in the latter half after market consolidation [2] - In the current bull market, cyclical stocks maintain a relatively stable excess return but have not shown an independent trend compared to the broader market [2] Group 2 - The report identifies that in the early stages of a bull market, funds prefer a few high-growth sectors, while in the later stages, funds tend to focus on the main style, making it harder for new funds to achieve profits [2] - Cyclical stocks are characterized by low valuations and high beta, making them likely to show good performance elasticity as the fundamentals improve, positioning them as potential candidates for continued bull market speculation [2] - The analysis of the industry landscape for Q2 2025 indicates that the non-ferrous and chemical sectors show good revenue growth and return on equity (ROE) changes, indicating strong fundamental characteristics [2] Group 3 - The non-ferrous sector, particularly in metal new materials and minor metals, is positioned in the third quadrant, indicating a stabilization after a period of clearing [3] - Energy metals are showing signs of stabilization, albeit starting later than other sectors [2][3] - The chemical sector, including chemical products and plastics, is also in the third quadrant, indicating a similar stabilization trend after a clearing phase [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how many listed companies in China have shifted their focus from their core businesses to stock trading, often relying on stock investments for significant portions of their profits, especially during the current bull market [4][6]. Group 1: Companies Engaging in Stock Trading - Seven Wolves, originally a men's clothing company, reported a net profit of 160 million yuan in the first half of the year, with only 30 million yuan from clothing sales and the remaining 130 million yuan primarily from stock investments [7][8]. - Zhejiang Yongqiang, a furniture manufacturer, saw its net profit grow eightfold to 462 million yuan last year, with one-third of that profit coming from stock trading [8][20]. - Companies like Jiangsu Guotai have also entered the stock market, planning to use 138.3 billion yuan for investment, including 18 billion yuan for stock trading [13][20]. Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - The current bull market has seen significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from just over 3000 points to nearly 3900 points, marking a ten-year high [8][9]. - The stock price of Cambricon, a company specializing in AI chip design, surged from 520.67 yuan to over 1500 yuan per share, becoming a market sensation [9][10]. - Companies like Liou Co. and Two Sides Needle have faced losses due to poor stock performance, highlighting the risks associated with heavy reliance on stock trading [10][12]. Group 3: Shifts in Business Strategy - Many companies have transitioned from traditional business models to include significant investment strategies, often driven by the need to adapt to changing market conditions [19][20]. - Seven Wolves shifted its focus to investment in 2015, moving away from pure manufacturing to a model that combines both industry and investment [19][20]. - Jiangsu Guotai's core business has been affected by geopolitical factors, leading the company to invest heavily in the stock market as a means of generating returns [20][21]. Group 4: Risks and Consequences - Companies that have become overly reliant on stock trading may face challenges in their core operations, as seen with Seven Wolves and Jiangsu Guotai, where R&D investments have declined significantly [36][38]. - The article notes that while stock trading can provide quick returns, it can also lead to a decline in traditional business performance and increased regulatory scrutiny [14][36]. - The experience of companies like Two Sides Needle, which relied on stock gains to offset operational losses, illustrates the precarious nature of such strategies [31][34].