发布时间：2025-07-21 大盘指数 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《红利研究（1）：为什么是银行？终点 又在何处》 - 2025.07.14 策略观点 等待经济政策为市场定调 ⚫ 投资要点 本周 A 股延续上涨势头。本周主要股指继续全数上涨，其中创业 板指上涨 3.17%表现最佳，其余主要指数中代表权重蓝筹的上证指数 和上证 50 相对较弱，分别上涨 0.69%和 0.28%。风格方面，本周风格 层面出现分化，成长、消费和周期风格继续上涨，金融和稳定风格出 现回调。市值风格方面，本周大中小盘市值风格均有上涨，中盘和小 盘指数表现明显优于大盘指数。本周代表核心资产和成长龙头的茅指 数和宁组合亦有上涨，宁组合整周上涨 1.56%，茅指数上涨 2.29%。 个人投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The official launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has led to a significant surge in the water conservancy and cement sectors, with related ETFs experiencing substantial gains in trading volume and price [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Market Performance - The E Fund Building Materials ETF (159787) saw a half-day increase of 8.23%, with a trading volume of 26.74 million yuan [2][3]. - The Building Materials ETF (159745) recorded a half-day trading amount of 234 million yuan, indicating high trading activity [1][3]. - Year-to-date, the Building Materials ETF (159745) has seen an increase of 23.1 million shares, with a change rate of 28.11% [2]. Group 2: Industry Price Trends - Many building material prices are currently at historically low levels, with the national average price of high-standard cement down by 31 yuan/ton year-on-year and 17 yuan/ton month-on-month [3]. - Float glass prices have decreased by 27.2% year-on-year and 6.1% month-on-month [3]. - The industry is expected to improve due to a combination of stable growth policies and an enhanced competitive landscape [3]. Group 3: Index Composition - The CSI All Share Building Materials Index includes listed companies involved in the building materials sector, reflecting the overall performance of these companies [4]. - Major weighted stocks in the index include Conch Cement (14.46%), Beijing New Building Materials (11.04%), and Oriental Yuhong (9.05%) [5].

Group 1 - The market shows positive signals with the Shanghai Composite Index consistently above 3500 points, indicating potential for upward movement in A-shares [1] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with limited downside adjustment space and clearer upward logic [1] - Mid to long-term trends in the A-share market remain upward, supported by long-term funds entering the market, particularly from insurance capital [1] Group 2 - High certainty in earnings is leading to strong performance in certain sectors, with a focus on themes such as AI applications, self-control, innovative drugs, and capacity optimization [1] - The "anti-involution" sectors are showing low valuations and are expected to benefit from price increases, which will help maintain market momentum [2] - Financial data from June indicates a strong performance, improving mid-term profit expectations across the A-share market [2] Group 3 - The non-bank sector is favored, with an emphasis on mergers and acquisitions driven by policy and event catalysts, as new capital enters the market [2] - The "anti-involution" narrative is gaining traction, with a focus on key industries for stable growth, particularly in metals and commodities [3] - The power equipment sector in the Hong Kong market is highlighted as a core asset, with expectations for improved profitability in wind and hydroelectric power [3]

Group 1 - The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth is expected to exceed 50% in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% in the total retail sales of social consumer goods, indicating a strong momentum for economic growth [1] - The policy of replacing old consumer goods has shown significant results, leading to substantial growth in retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment, thus creating new development opportunities for related industries [1] - The retail sales growth rate peaked in May due to the combination of e-commerce promotions and policy benefits, showcasing the robust vitality of the consumption market [1] Group 2 - The recovery in consumption not only supports economic growth but also plays a crucial role in improving livelihoods and promoting employment, creating numerous job opportunities [2] - The trend of consumption upgrading encourages enterprises to increase innovation investments, enhancing product quality and service levels, thereby providing consumers with more choices and better experiences [2] - Continuous optimization of consumption policies by the government is essential to consolidate and expand the results of the consumption recovery, ensuring a safe and reliable consumption environment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector is experiencing a significant rally, with several companies reaching their daily price limits, indicating strong market sentiment and potential investment opportunities [1] Industry Developments - The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting on July 15 to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the steel industry, emphasizing the need to control capacity increases and facilitate exits from the market to prevent overcapacity risks [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of establishing a new capacity governance mechanism to maintain a healthy competitive environment in the steel industry [1] Market Outlook - According to Minsheng Securities, policies aimed at stabilizing growth and reducing competition pressure on tail-end capacities are expected to optimize crude steel supply, leading to a potential recovery in steel companies' profitability [1] - Xinda Securities forecasts a stable improvement in the steel industry's structure, noting that some companies are currently undervalued, presenting structural investment opportunities, particularly for high-margin special steel firms and leading companies with strong cost control [1]

Macro Analysis - June retail data in the US showed a month-on-month increase, but the resilience should not be overestimated due to potential tariff disruptions and inflation adjustments. Actual retail sales growth was only 0.3% after adjusting for a 0.3% increase in the consumer price index [1] Market Strategy - The market has shifted from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven since September last year, with expectations for a new upward trend in the second half of 2025, potentially breaking through the peak of the second half of 2024 [2] Credit Bonds - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, a total of 386 credit bonds were issued, totaling 401.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.72% from the previous period. Notably, city investment bonds increased by 16.25% [3] REITs Market - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs showed a trend of rising then falling prices, with an overall return rate of 0.11%. Property-type REITs increased, while concession-type REITs decreased [4] Quantitative Analysis - Market momentum effects were dominant, with public research selection strategies yielding significant excess returns. The public research selection strategy outperformed the CSI 800 by 3.33% [5][6] Automotive Industry - The "anti-involution" trend may shift the automotive industry from price-cutting to technology upgrades and cost reductions. Recommended stocks include XPeng Motors for strong tech capabilities and Geely for solid fundamentals and undervaluation [8] Electric Power Equipment - In June 2025, inverter exports remained stable at $920 million, while component and battery exports decreased by 24% year-on-year. Transformer exports increased by 48% year-on-year [9] Banking Sector - Hangzhou Bank reported a 3.9% year-on-year increase in revenue to 20.09 billion yuan and a 16.7% increase in net profit to 11.66 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating strong fundamental resilience [10] Petrochemical Industry - New Fengming plans to invest in high-end bio-based fibers, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 reflecting a decrease of 28% and 22% respectively. The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its leading position in polyester [11] Construction Industry - China Power Construction is expected to benefit from the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an estimated annual contract value of 21.8-29.1 billion yuan, significantly enhancing the company's order book [12] Home Appliances - Haier Smart Home is positioned as a leading global home appliance brand, with a positive outlook for air conditioning sales and a projected net profit of 21.5 billion yuan for 2025 [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the economic growth rate in the second half of 2025 may decline compared to the first half, with a policy focus shifting towards structural adjustments. Despite this, the A-share market remains strong due to stable capital market expectations, anti-involution policies, and the positive impact of technology and trade negotiations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Market Stability - The consensus is that achieving the annual economic growth target is feasible, with a shift in policy focus towards structural adjustments. This suggests that the economic growth rate in the second half of 2025 may be weaker than in the first half, and expectations for growth-stabilizing policies should be moderated [1]. - Stable capital market policies have created a "buffer" against macroeconomic disturbances, leading to a perception that the downside risks for the A-share market are manageable. Even in adverse economic conditions, timely policy responses can mitigate risks [1][2]. - The anti-involution policies have connected short-term economic highlights with mid-term supply-demand improvements, allowing for smoother transitions in the market dynamics between upstream cycles and midstream manufacturing [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - By the fourth quarter of 2025, the conditions for a market breakout are expected to be more favorable, with fundamental expectations shifting towards 2026. This could accelerate the market's reflection of improved supply-demand dynamics and profitability [3]. - The year 2025 is projected to be a peak for the repricing of household deposits, creating a critical window for reallocating assets, which may lead to natural increments in certain investment products that have limited dependence on stock market performance [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Recommendations - The focus of investment is shifting towards undervalued cyclical stocks in the short term, while mid-term opportunities lie in midstream manufacturing that benefits from supply clearing and anti-involution policies [4]. - The AI computing power industry is showing significant improvement, with domestic profit effects expanding, indicating continued investment opportunities in this sector [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed as a potential leader in the next bull market, with ongoing interest in innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumer trends, alongside high dividend stocks as attractive investment options [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Insights - The coal sector is currently characterized by low capacity utilization, high inventory levels, and poor profitability, indicating a significant oversupply situation. This suggests a higher likelihood of "anti-involution" measures being effective. Additionally, the coal sector is undervalued, with coking coal showing the highest valuation advantage, followed by thermal coal [2][7]. - Companies such as Pingmei Shenma, Panjiang, Shanmei International, Kailuan, Hengyuan Coal Power, and Gansu Energy show greater elasticity in their operations. However, when considering investment safety (debt ratios), Pingmei Shenma, Kailuan, Hengyuan Coal Power, and Jinkong Coal are more favorable [2][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 0.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.78 percentage points, ranking 27th out of 32 industries. The thermal coal market price as of July 18 was 642 CNY/ton, up by 10 CNY/ton week-on-week. The outlook suggests potential short-term price increases due to high temperature demand, although rising port inventories may limit sustained price growth [6][21][22]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of July 17, the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 6.33 million tons, up 11.1% week-on-week. The total coal inventory was 123.41 million tons, down 0.8% from the previous week, with a usable days supply of 19.5 days, a decrease of 2.3 days [22][41]. Individual Company Analysis - The report highlights specific companies with significant operational elasticity: Pingmei Shenma, Jinkong Coal, and Shanmei International are noted as elastic stocks. For long-term stable profit leaders, China Coal Energy and China Shenhua are recommended, while for transformation and growth, Electric Power Investment and Xinji Energy are suggested [8][38]. Price Trends - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal is expected to remain supported in the short term due to tight supply conditions, while coking coal prices are also expected to maintain strength due to ongoing demand from steel production [22][49].

Group 1: Market Strategy - The market has shifted from being policy-driven to being driven by fundamentals and liquidity since September last year, with expectations for a potential upward trend in the second half of 2025, possibly surpassing the peak of the second half of 2024 [3] - The A-share market continues to show a trend of oscillation upwards, with the ChiNext index leading the gains, indicating an increase in market risk appetite despite differing capital flows [4] - The market style is transitioning from reversal to momentum, which may support further upward movement of the index, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy catalysts such as "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" [4] Group 2: Fixed Income and Credit Bonds - A total of 386 credit bonds were issued from July 14 to July 18, 2025, with a total issuance scale of 4010.95 billion yuan, representing a week-on-week decrease of 14.72% [4] - Among the credit bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 173 issues totaling 1759.1 billion yuan, while local government bonds saw an increase of 16.25% with 178 issues totaling 1065.35 billion yuan [4] - Financial bonds experienced a significant decrease of 40.42%, with 35 issues totaling 1186.5 billion yuan [4] Group 3: Industry Insights - The Guangxi Petrochemical project has been fully completed, marking a significant step in the integrated refining and chemical transformation, with the ethylene unit achieving high-quality commissioning [6] - China National Petroleum Corporation is accelerating its transformation into high-end new materials, achieving a breakthrough in new material sales and establishing five new material bases to enhance production capacity [6] - In the agricultural sector, the average price of live pigs has decreased by 3.65% week-on-week to 14.27 yuan/kg, while the average price of 15 kg piglets has increased by 0.22% to 31.96 yuan/kg [6]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the non-ferrous metal market under strong policy expectations, highlighting the recent focus on "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" by the government [2][3] - The report notes that copper and aluminum prices have stabilized and rebounded, driven by macroeconomic catalysts and changes in market sentiment [2][3] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have stabilized and rebounded, with domestic inventory showing fluctuations; the current price is around 79,040 CNY/ton [2][14] - Aluminum prices experienced a decline followed by a rebound, with the current price at 20,770 CNY/ton; supply and demand dynamics are being closely monitored [2][21] - Gold and silver prices have increased, with gold averaging 774.23 CNY/gram and silver at 9,107 CNY/kilogram, supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions [3][28] Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have been adjusted upwards, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 179,500 CNY/ton; the market is cautious due to weak demand [4][59] - The rare earth market is showing signs of recovery, with prices for light rare earth oxides increasing by 4.8% to 478,000 CNY/ton [5] Market Predictions - The report predicts that copper prices will fluctuate between 95,00-96,50 USD/ton and aluminum prices between 20,300-21,000 CNY/ton in the coming week [15][23] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Hongqiao for potential investment opportunities [17][24]