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高盛:中国“慢慢牛”正在形成,A/H股27年底有望上涨30%
3 6 Ke· 2025-10-23 02:04
中国股市,一场"慢牛"行情正在酝酿之中。 据追风交易台,10月22日,高盛发布最新研报《中国股市"慢慢牛"正在形成》(A Slow(er) China Bull Market)。这份报告的核心信号是,中国股市的投资逻辑正在发生根本性转变,市场已进入一个更持 久、波动性更低的"慢牛"阶段。 高盛分析师Kinger Lau等预测,在盈利增长和估值修复的双重驱动下,到2027年底,包括A股和H股在 内的中国关键股指有约30%的上涨潜力。 此轮上涨将主要由约12%的盈利年均复合增长(CAGR)和5-10%的估值重估共同驱动,标志着市场从 估值修复的"希望"阶段进入盈利驱动的"增长"阶段。 这一乐观看法建立在四大支柱之上:友好的政策环境、盈利增长再加速(由AI、反"内卷"和企业出海 驱动)、相对便宜的估值以及强劲的国内外资金流。 这意味着过去"逢高卖出"的交易策略或已过时,取而代之的应该是"逢低买入"的战略性配置思维。 告别剧烈波动,迎接持续上行 根据报告,自2022年末的低点以来,MSCI中国指数已反弹81%,收复了此前超过6万亿美元市值损失的 约一半。但期间市场经历了4次重大回调,平均回调幅度达22%,这使得"交易 ...
寻觅科技与“出海”新机全球再保险行业“再”聚上海
◎记者 何奎 金秋十月的滴水湖畔,全球再保险行业众智激荡——10月21日至24日,以"同频同行,对话全球"为主题 的2025上海国际再保险会议在临港新片区举行。 2025上海国际再保险会议现场 ■聚焦2025上海国际再保险会议 寻觅科技与"出海"新机 全球再保险行业"再"聚上海 在10月22日举行的2025上海国际再保险会议主论坛上,围绕再保险如何进一步发挥对巨灾风险、新兴风 险、超额风险等的保障和支持力度等话题,与会嘉宾进行了深入探讨。 "再"聚上海 上海国际再保险会议是全球再保险业一年一度的盛会,今年有来自28个国家和地区的400余家全球再保 险机构和监管机构参会。会场内,参会者交换名片、洽谈业务,这正是上海国际再保险中心打造全 球"磁吸力"的生动剪影。 响应全球对上海国际再保险中心建设的更高期待,金融监管总局财险司(再保险司)司长尹江鳌在会上 表示,上海国际再保险登记交易中心和各机构,要积极推动国内外风险建模、核保核赔等技术交流,发 挥保险中介作用,通过高水平开放提升我国保险业专业水平。"希望上海持续优化营商环境,与各参与 机构形成协同合力,积极推动再保险中心建设。"尹江鳌说。 上海金融监管局局长綦相介 ...
CF40郭凯:建议将正常资金外流与资本外逃区分开来
和讯· 2025-10-22 10:08
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of China’s trade and investment strategies in response to geopolitical pressures, highlighting the ASEAN market as a key destination for Chinese industries and trade due to its strategic value and resource advantages [2][3]. Trade and Investment Trends - China's export value is projected to grow from $2.59 trillion in 2020 to $3.57 trillion by 2024, maintaining a global export share of approximately 15% [2]. - The ASEAN region has emerged as China's largest export market since 2022, with a noticeable decline in the share of exports to the United States [2][4]. Strategic Shifts in Corporate Behavior - The concept of "China+1" has evolved, with companies diversifying supply chains to mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on Chinese manufacturing, particularly following the 2008 financial crisis and the U.S.-China trade tensions [3][4]. - The trend of Chinese companies going abroad has intensified since 2018, driven by the need to avoid tariff barriers, with countries like Vietnam and Mexico acting as intermediaries for exports to the U.S. [4]. Investment Focus Areas - The "New Three Items" (electric vehicles, solar energy, and battery production) are central to China's manufacturing investments in ASEAN, with a cumulative investment of $65.91 billion from 2020 to 2024, accounting for 64.1% of total manufacturing greenfield investments [5]. - Key investment destinations within ASEAN include Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia for electric vehicles, and Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia for solar energy [5]. Challenges in Local Integration - Despite the rapid expansion of Chinese investments in ASEAN, challenges such as high operational costs in Thailand and difficulties in local sourcing persist, leading to continued reliance on domestic supply chains [6]. - The need for better local integration and adaptation to the regional market is emphasized, as rapid outflows of capital can disrupt local economies [6]. Policy Recommendations - The article suggests that the Chinese government should strategically support outbound investments, while host countries should balance the opportunities and challenges presented by Chinese enterprises [6][8]. - Recommendations include improving regulatory frameworks, enhancing cross-border payment systems, and fostering collaboration between Chinese and local businesses to achieve mutual benefits [11][12].
中银集团深度赋能滨企“出海”!滨州企业全球化布局新机遇专题讲座圆满落幕
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-10-22 06:56
Core Insights - The event "New Opportunities for Global Layout of Binzhou Enterprises" was successfully held to support local enterprises in connecting with Hong Kong and international capital, optimizing the global competitive landscape [1] - Bank of China Hong Kong and Bank of China International provided customized financial support solutions focusing on the full-cycle needs of Binzhou enterprises going global [2] Group 1 - The comprehensive financial service plan "Bank of China Hong Kong · Safeguarding Going Global" was launched, covering cross-border settlement, financing support, and risk hedging to ensure a full-chain guarantee for enterprises' cross-border operations [2] - Trade products were introduced to facilitate efficient settlement tools for import and export scenarios, helping to break down international market barriers [2] - Cash management services were detailed to enhance cross-border fund utilization efficiency through global fund collection and liquidity management [2] Group 2 - The theme "Binzhou Enterprises Going Public · Bank of China Alongside" was discussed, explaining key policies for listing in Hong Kong and exclusive financial services to connect enterprises with international capital markets [2] - Bank of China Binzhou Branch has actively facilitated domestic and foreign enterprises, providing comprehensive financial service solutions for projects like the Weiqiao Group's alumina project in Indonesia [3] - Since 2025, the Binzhou Branch has completed significant transactions, including a $42.29 million CCS hedging transaction and expanded trade foreign exchange facilitation services, supporting local enterprises in their international trade efforts [3]
对话黄兆华:藏在增长与挫折里的中国企业出海启示 | 卓立出海谈
吴晓波频道· 2025-10-22 00:41
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful international expansion of LiuGong Group, which has achieved significant overseas revenue growth, accounting for 46.88% of its total revenue, amounting to 13 billion [3]. Group 1: LiuGong's International Strategy - LiuGong Group began its overseas expansion in 2002 and has developed a comprehensive "LiuGong Model" for others to reference [3]. - The company’s overseas business grew from 200 million to 4.2 billion, showcasing a remarkable growth trajectory [4]. - The importance of building a robust internal support system to sustain rapid international growth is emphasized, including logistics, financing, and service systems [8]. Group 2: Challenges and Lessons Learned - A critical lesson learned was the importance of not introducing untested products to overseas markets, which resulted in significant financial losses [9]. - The article discusses the challenges faced during economic downturns, particularly in the mining sector, which severely impacted operations [13][14]. - Cost-cutting measures were necessary during tough times, but the rigid cost structure in Europe made layoffs difficult, leading to a focus on finding new business opportunities [15][16]. Group 3: Characteristics of Successful Leaders - Successful leaders in international markets should possess a winner's mindset, resilience, and inclusivity to manage diverse teams effectively [18][19]. - The article stresses the need for clear guidelines and control from headquarters while allowing local teams to operate within defined boundaries [20][21]. Group 4: Strategic Directions for Companies - Companies looking to expand internationally should first assess market demand, identify typical customers, and ensure product-market fit [23]. - The article suggests a dual approach of external market analysis and internal capability assessment to ensure alignment [24]. Group 5: Evolution of Chinese Manufacturing - The narrative emphasizes that the evolution of Chinese manufacturing from mere production to innovation and quality is driven by capable individuals willing to take risks and learn from mistakes [24][25]. - The transformation from "Made in China" to "Created in China" reflects a collective effort by Chinese entrepreneurs to enhance global competitiveness [26].
护航企业全球化,上海打造国际海事仲裁新高地
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-10-21 09:27
传统海上风险案件比例下降,因地缘政治冲突等新型外部风险引发的纠纷显著增加。 蒋宏飞称,今年2月1日修订后的《上海市推进国际航运中心建设条例》已正式施行,为航运中心建设提供了强有力的法律支撑。"强化海事司法支持保 障"和"推动海事仲裁服务创新"被列为2025年上海国际航运建设的中心任务。已扩充为37家成员单位的"上海航运法律共同体"不断壮大,协同优化航运法律 服务生态。 司法支持无疑是仲裁发展的关键保障。上海市高级人民法院副院长曹洁表示,近年来,上海海事司法和仲裁的吸引力持续提升,越来越多的国际商事、海事 争议选择到上海诉讼或仲裁。根据今年4月世界银行公布的企业调查数据,在103个经济体中,中国的法院认可度和公正性感知度位列第2位和第3位。自2020 年以来,上海法院共受理了各类仲裁司法审查案件2600余件,受理的申请仲裁保全案件6900余件,平均有效支持率达到96%以上。 9月12日,全国人大常委会通过了修订后的《仲裁法》。13天后,最高人民法院发布《关于推进国际商事法庭高质量发展服务保障高水平对外开放的意 见》,提出要"进一步完善仲裁司法审查规则""营造仲裁友好型司法环境""支持临时仲裁"等一系列措施。 曹 ...
活动报名|2025上海对外投资合作服务开放日系列活动 —— 检验检测认证护航企业“走出去”
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-10-21 08:46
Core Insights - The event aims to assist companies in adapting to overseas inspection, testing, and certification standards, enhancing compliance management capabilities, and boosting international competitiveness [1] - The event will take place on October 24, 2025, under the guidance of the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce, focusing on the theme "Inspection, Testing, and Certification to Support Enterprises Going Global" [1] Event Focus - The event invites relevant enterprises and professional service institutions to explore compliance pathways and strengthen the foundation for inspection, testing, and certification for companies going abroad [3][5] - The agenda includes policy interpretation, professional consulting, and resource matching to build a robust foundation for overseas inspection and certification [5] Agenda Highlights - Opening remarks by leaders from First Financial and the Shanghai Modern Service Industry Association [6] - Sessions covering the latest product access regulations and requirements in major global markets such as North America, South America, Southeast Asia, and Japan [6] - Discussions on transforming compliance into competitive advantages for Chinese PtX enterprises [7] - Exploration of solutions and trends for the battery and energy storage industry going global [7] Expert Insights - Strategies and methods to address international trade technical barriers [8] - Importance of building a comprehensive quality management system to enhance product competitiveness [9] - Analysis of new trends in international trade and the ESG challenges faced by foreign trade and outbound enterprises [10] Compliance and Certification Challenges - Addressing the new EU battery regulations and establishing a foundation for market trust through safety and performance [11] - Utilizing Shanghai's "one inspection, multiple country recognition" qualification to reduce redundant testing costs [14]
活动报名|2025上海对外投资合作服务开放日系列活动 —— 检验检测认证护航企业“走出去”
第一财经· 2025-10-21 08:38
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of inspection, testing, and certification (ITC) in supporting Chinese enterprises' international expansion, particularly in navigating compliance with overseas standards and regulations [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event titled "Inspection, Testing, and Certification Safeguard Enterprises Going Global" will take place on October 24, 2025, in Shanghai [4]. - The event aims to address key challenges faced by enterprises going abroad by providing a platform for discussion and resource sharing [2][3]. Group 2: Agenda Highlights - The agenda includes a series of sessions focusing on global market entry regulations, compliance strategies, and the role of standards and certifications in enhancing competitiveness [5][6]. - Key topics will cover strategies to overcome international trade technical barriers, the importance of quality management systems, and the challenges of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) compliance for export-oriented enterprises [7][8][11]. Group 3: Expert Contributions - Experts from international testing institutions and compliance consulting will provide comprehensive consultations and insights on the latest policies and practices in the field [3][10]. - Specific sessions will address the battery and energy storage industry's trends and solutions for going global, as well as common certification barriers and how to leverage Shanghai's "one test, multiple recognitions" policy to reduce costs [9][12].
“上海市欧美同学会金融沙龙第三期——新形势下的国际经贸与投资”专题会举办
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-21 07:16
Core Insights - The financial salon held on October 19 focused on "International Trade and Investment under New Circumstances," addressing current global economic challenges and opportunities [1][3][4] Group 1: Event Overview - The financial salon is part of the 65th anniversary celebrations of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics and the 30th anniversary of its Financial Management School [3] - Over 200 participants from various sectors, including alumni and professionals, attended the event [3] Group 2: Key Themes and Discussions - The salon emphasized the importance of international cooperation in the context of changing global economic dynamics, particularly in relation to China’s foreign trade and investment strategies [4][5] - Topics discussed included Sino-U.S. trade relations, sustainable development in the Global South, global supply chain restructuring, tariffs, cross-border finance, and investment in Southeast Asia [7] Group 3: Strategic Collaborations - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between the Shanghai European and American Alumni Association Financial Branch and the Financial Management School of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics [7] - The collaboration aims to create a high-end exchange platform in the financial sector, enhancing the integration of financial theory and practice [7]
第四季“渣打香港中小企领先营商指数”综合营商指数反弹至44.5 创本年新高
智通财经网· 2025-10-20 06:15
Core Insights - The Standard Chartered Hong Kong SME Leading Business Index rebounded to its highest level of 44.5 in Q4 2025 after dropping to a 13-quarter low of 40.5 in Q3 2025, primarily driven by a significant recovery in the "Global Economy" sub-index, which increased by 12.0 points [1] - The overall business confidence among SMEs has shown a notable recovery, with all five sub-indices rising, particularly the "Global Economy" sub-index, which recorded a strong rebound to 32.6 [1][2] - Despite the positive trends, short-term challenges remain, as "Business Conditions" and "Profit Performance" indices are still around the low 40s, indicating ongoing concerns [1] Industry Performance - Among the 11 industries surveyed, all except the "Construction" sector saw increases, with significant gains in the "Real Estate," "Finance and Insurance," "Transportation, Warehousing and Courier Services," and "Retail" sectors [2] - 46% of SMEs expect raw material costs to rise, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in cost increase expectations [2] - 95% of SMEs plan to maintain or increase their investments this quarter, up by 3 percentage points from the last quarter, with 6% indicating they will increase their investment amounts [2] Trade and Market Outlook - The "Import and Export Trade and Wholesale" and "Transportation, Warehousing and Courier Services" sectors ranked lower in the industry index, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in trade relations, particularly between the US and China [2] - The cautious approach taken by both the UK and China is expected to have a positive impact on SMEs, as communication between the two parties continues [2][3] - Companies are likely to pursue overseas expansion to mitigate risks associated with unstable tariffs, supported by government funding to assist SMEs in entering international markets [3]