作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 中东局势缓和等因素，令近期震荡走低的金价再度下挫。 当地时间6月27日，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌1.85%报3286美元/盎司，盘中 最低触及3266美元/盎司，刷新近一个月低位。 2025.06. 28 本文字数：1148，阅读时长大约2分钟 至此，国际金价已经连跌两周，近两个交易周累计下跌约5%，再度失守3300美元/盎司关口。 东证衍生品研究院宏观首席分析师徐颖分析称，上半年美国经济在关税政策的扰动下波动增加，黄金 在经历了投机炒作后，步入区间震荡阶段。中长期看，美国对外关税政策的反复、地缘政治博弈的增 加，美联储降息临近、缩表接近尾声，黄金仍然受益于不确定性以及流动性的释放。 技术面看，金价三次冲刺3400美元～3500美元的区间高点没能成功。徐颖认为，突破当前的震荡区 间还需等待更多触发因素，下一波上涨行情的启动还需等待，预计后期走势先抑后扬。 海外多重风险因素接连缓和，对金价形成短线的利空因素。永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇认为，从 中长期来看黄金价格驱动逻辑不变，即美元、美债信用走弱趋势下，金价获得支撑。随着美国关税不 确定性和赤字率上行，全球"去美 ...

今年上半年，关税风险推动金价迭创新高，伦敦金一度站上3500美元/盎司，年内最高涨幅一度达到 35%。 "4月份开始，黄金价格因避险资金集中配置而出现井喷式增长，但随后出现了调整，这主要是因为市场 对于历史高点的对标和局部拥挤度过高所致。"博时黄金ETF基金经理王祥分析称，黄金市场的波动性 上涨主要是由于逆全球化、美元信用减弱以及美国关税战等因素共同作用的结果。 中东局势缓和等因素，令近期震荡走低的金价再度下挫。 当地时间6月27日，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌1.85%报3286美元/盎司，盘中最低触 及3266美元/盎司，刷新近一个月低位。 至此，国际金价已经连跌两周，近两个交易周累计下跌约5%，再度失守3300美元/盎司关口。 东证衍生品研究院宏观首席分析师徐颖分析称，上半年美国经济在关税政策的扰动下波动增加，黄金在 经历了投机炒作后，步入区间震荡阶段。中长期看，美国对外关税政策的反复、地缘政治博弈的增加， 美联储降息临近、缩表接近尾声，黄金仍然受益于不确定性以及流动性的释放。 技术面看，金价三次冲刺3400美元～3500美元的区间高点没能成功。徐颖认为，突破当前的震荡区间还 需等待更多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the US dollar's dominance and the rise of the Chinese yuan, highlighting the geopolitical and financial implications of this shift [1][3]. Group 1: US Dollar's Challenges - The US is facing a debt crisis, exacerbated by failed plans such as the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" which aimed to convert US debt into long-term, interest-free bonds [3][5]. - The "Pennsylvania Plan," led by US Treasury Secretary Yellen, aims to stimulate domestic demand for US debt through financial repression and the promotion of dollar stablecoins [5][7]. - This strategy represents a high-stakes gamble, relying on domestic investors to absorb large amounts of US debt and the global reliance on the dollar [5][7]. Group 2: Risks and Consequences - The independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk, as the Treasury's control over monetary policy could lead to corruption and mismanagement [7]. - Artificially lowering interest rates to manage debt could undermine the dollar's credibility, potentially leading to severe inflation [7][9]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with central banks around the world increasing their gold reserves as a sign of diminishing confidence in the dollar [9][11]. Group 3: Rise of the Chinese Yuan - The appreciation of the yuan is seen as a response to the instability of the dollar system, prompting global capital to seek new safe havens [11]. - However, the yuan's rise presents challenges, as China's financial system must demonstrate resilience and depth to handle this influx of wealth [11]. - The future of the yuan as a reliable "hard currency" depends on China's ability to reform its financial markets, advance internationalization, and improve its exchange rate mechanism [11].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are primarily driven by real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation expectations) and safe-haven demand, while being influenced by variables such as the US dollar exchange rate, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions [2] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The market is in a unique phase where high real interest rates suppress gold prices, but safe-haven demand and de-dollarization trends support them [2] - The Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, but the timing of potential rate cuts remains contentious [4] - US CPI remains stubbornly above 3%, indicating a slowdown in the disinflation process [4] - Ongoing geopolitical risks include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East [4] - In 2023, global central banks net purchased 1,037 tons of gold, marking the second-highest level in history [4] Group 2: Historical Analysis and Patterns - Analyzing the past 20 years of gold price movements reveals key patterns regarding pullback magnitudes and durations [5] - In non-extreme crises, a 20%-25% pullback often indicates a mid-term bottom [7] - Rapid declines (over 15% in 1-3 months) tend to have a high probability of subsequent rebounds [7] - Gold typically begins to form a bottom 6-12 months before a shift in Federal Reserve policy [7] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The long-term upward trend line since 2020 is positioned between $1,850 and $1,900 per ounce [10] - The 200-week moving average support has risen to $1,800, which has never been effectively breached in the past decade [10] - Key Fibonacci retracement levels are at $1,880 (38.2% retracement) and $1,750 (50% retracement in extreme risk scenarios) [10] - Institutional accumulation costs are concentrated in the $1,900 to $1,950 range [10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Aggressive investors may consider starting to accumulate gold if prices drop to $1,900 (approximately 5% decline) [11] - Conservative investors should wait for a breach below $1,850 (10% decline) before entering [11] - Technical signals for entry include a daily RSI below 30 and a close above the 20-day moving average [11] - The global cash cost of gold mining is around $1,300, providing a significant margin of safety below $1,600 [11] Group 5: Tactical and Strategic Opportunities - Tactical opportunities may arise if gold prices fall below $1,900, while a panic sell-off to $1,750 could represent a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity [16] - The ultimate signal for a major upward trend in gold is typically seen within six months following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut [16] - High-profile institutions like Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater suggest that gold could maintain a range of $1,900 to $2,100 under soft landing scenarios, and potentially rise to $2,500 during a recession [16]

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 稳定币影响初探 >>点击图片查看全文<< 今年5月，美国和中国香港接连就稳定币监管立法，引发市场关注。稳定币之"稳定"在于其作为一种加密货币，通过与其他资产（通常为法定货币） 挂钩来稳定其价格，区别于比特币等价格波动较高的原生加密货币，稳定币用途更多在于行使货"币"作为交换媒介和计价单位的功能。在币值稳定的 前提下，稳定币依托区块链有望使跨境支付更快速、更廉价、更便捷 。稳定币一方面有助于稳固美元储备地位，另一方面当前美元主导的国际货币 体系生变，国际货币体系正在加速重构，若其他国家发行的稳定币并不锚定美元，也可能进一步挑战美元的储备货币地位。稳定币的发展对美元影响 如何仍需要进一步研究和探索。结合中金研究行业组的观点，我们认为稳定币发展可能相关的企业主要包括：银行IT服务商，电信运营商，加密货币 交易所，作为稳定币交易通道的金融机构等。 图表：美元在全球外汇储备中占比有所下降但仍是主导 资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部 2025.06.22 | 李求索 张歆瑜等 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 02 策略 Str ...

市场概述 尽管美加贸易关系再度紧张，但受中东局势缓和和降息预期的推动，纳指、标普创历史新高。谷歌涨近3%。耐克财报后收涨15%，创四年来最佳单日表 现。 两年期美债收益率涨2.86个基点，本周累计跌15.97个基点。美元指数周五跌约0.1%，本周累计跌超1.3%、收于2022年2月以来的最低。由于特朗普终止与加 拿大的贸易谈判，加元兑美元一度大跌0.9%。 现货黄金跌破3300美元，日内跌幅一度超2.1%，黄金连续第二周下跌。原油仍处窄幅震荡，WTI原油本周累计大跌超11%，这是近27个月来最糟糕的一 周。 亚洲时段，AH股午后回落，沪指跌0.7%，银行股集体调整，恒指跌0.2%，小米盘中创历史新高，商品、国债齐涨。 华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 纽约Talk第二季上新 | 33年交易老将，华尔街前线洞察 了解详情>> 要闻 中国央行Q2货币政策例会：要实施好适度宽松的货币政策，加强逆周期调节。 中国1至5月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降1.1%，5月单月同比下降9.1%。 特朗普炮轰加拿大数字税，终止所有美加贸易谈判，威胁征新关税，美财长警告301调查将至。欧盟和美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence among investment banks regarding the future price of gold, with some predicting a decline while others foresee substantial increases [2][6]. Group 1: Bullish Outlook - The bullish camp argues that ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties will support gold prices. Société Générale believes gold is a strong investment and a hedge against geopolitical risks, maintaining a target price of around $3450 per ounce for the summer [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its bullish stance, projecting gold prices to reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 due to structural demand from central banks [4]. - UBS forecasts gold prices to be approximately $3500 per ounce by the end of this year, while Bank of America suggests a strong possibility of prices hitting $4000 in the second half of the year [5]. Group 2: Bearish Outlook - The bearish camp, led by Citigroup, predicts that gold's strong performance will not continue, forecasting a drop to below $3000 per ounce by the end of this year and between $2500 to $2700 by mid-2026, representing a decline of 20-25% from current levels [6]. - Analysts at Citigroup attribute this potential decline to weakening investment demand, improving global economic growth prospects, and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Despite the usual positive correlation between interest rate cuts and gold prices, there are concerns that the market may have already priced in some of these benefits, leading to a potential correction [6]. Group 3: Changing Asset Allocation - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that over 90% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, reflecting a shift in asset allocation strategies amid geopolitical tensions [8]. - The OMFIF survey reveals that 32% of central banks plan to increase their gold exposure in the next 12 to 24 months, the highest level in five years, suggesting a growing optimism about gold's future [8]. - The report indicates a trend towards diversifying away from the US dollar, with gold, the euro, and the renminbi becoming increasingly important in central bank reserves, signaling a potential end to the dollar's dominance [8].

Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Credit Risk - U.S. Treasury yields have been rising across all maturities this year, leading to increased government financing costs and heightened credit risk concerns in the market [1][12] - The steepening yield curve reflects a combination of factors including fiscal deficits and tariff policies that have contributed to a decline in U.S. government creditworthiness [1][11] - The U.S. government is facing mounting pressure from both internal and external factors, which are pushing Treasury credit towards a downward trajectory [1] Group 2: Global Dollarization and Its Impact - The dollar's role as a global public good is being challenged, with countries seeking to reduce reliance on the dollar due to its perceived misuse by the U.S. [2][5] - Emerging markets and developing countries are increasingly burdened by dollar-denominated debt, especially during crises, leading to rising default risks as U.S. monetary policy tightens [2][3] - Countries are actively pursuing "de-dollarization" strategies, including bilateral currency agreements and the establishment of alternative payment systems [3][4] Group 3: Japanese Government Bonds and Their Influence - Japan's government bond yields have surged, with the 10-year yield reaching a 16-year high, raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal position [6][7] - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 260%, the highest among developed nations, and the recent contraction in GDP highlights the fragility of its economic recovery [7][8] - The Bank of Japan's tightening monetary policy may lead to increased financing costs, raising questions about the government's ability to service its debt [8][9] Group 4: U.S. Debt Dynamics and Market Sentiment - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.22 trillion, with projections indicating a significant increase in the debt ceiling, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [11][12] - The projected federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is expected to reach $2.2 trillion, exacerbating doubts about the U.S. government's creditworthiness [11][12] - Investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries is waning, as evidenced by declining bid-to-cover ratios in recent bond auctions, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [12][13] Group 5: Changes in Investor Composition - There has been a notable decline in the share of traditional long-term holders of U.S. Treasuries, such as sovereign funds and pension funds, while short-term trading capital is on the rise [13][14] - The shift towards a trading-oriented investor base may increase volatility in the Treasury market, undermining its status as a safe-haven asset [14] - The growing influence of high-frequency trading could amplify price sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators and monetary policy signals, further destabilizing the market [14]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic landscape is expected to show resilience in the short term, with a shift from "grabbing transshipment" to "grabbing exports," indicating a potential improvement in external demand [1] - The top five sectors with net inflows include military industry, non-ferrous metals, copper, PCB boards, and charging piles, suggesting strong investor interest in these areas [1] - The A-share market is anticipated to maintain stability with the support of long-term capital inflows, driven by policies from the Central Huijin Investment Ltd [1] Group 2 - The humanoid robot industry is expected to drive significant growth in the bearing market, with domestic companies poised to benefit from the acceleration of domestic substitution [3] - The recent enactment of the stablecoin regulation in Hong Kong is drawing attention to related stocks, although the industry is still in its early stages and may face challenges in short-term performance [3] - The introduction of multiple economic stimulus policies is expected to stabilize expectations and enhance early effectiveness, particularly in the "two new" and "two heavy" sectors [5] Group 3 - The stock market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant inflows of new capital, although the overall market profitability remains weak [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a rebound without filling the gap, indicating a strong market sentiment influenced by external market performance [11] - The focus on sectors with low exposure to U.S. tariffs, such as engineering machinery and commercial vehicles, is recommended for investors [11]

16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-27） | | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石现货成交偏弱，基差继续收窄。本期全球铁矿石发运总 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 量、到港量环比回升，整体处于近年来同期高位水平，铁矿发运有冲量预 | | | | | | 期。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍旧在 | | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水状况。 | | | | | | 铁矿石整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的 | | | | | | 局面，铁矿供需过剩格局不变，短期在煤焦安全检查影响炒作下，板块跟 | | | | | | 随反弹，后期关注铁水动向。 | | | | | | 煤焦：近日主产区环保检查升级，内蒙乌海及临汾地区停产煤矿及洗煤厂 | | | | | | 较多，部分煤矿和洗煤厂暂停拉运，焦煤现货供应自本月中旬以来持续回 | | | | 煤焦 | 反弹 | 落，煤焦迎来强势拉涨。焦炭方面，钢厂打压焦炭，对焦企第四轮提降落 | | | | ...