Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, which have decreased from over $1 trillion in 2013 to approximately $638.5 billion by the end of 2025, making China the third-largest holder behind Japan and the UK [1][3][5] Group 1: Changes in U.S. Treasury Holdings - China's U.S. Treasury holdings have halved from their peak, reflecting a strategic adjustment in foreign exchange reserves [1][3] - Other emerging economies, such as Brazil and India, are also reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings, indicating a broader trend [5][9] - In December 2025, 14 major countries collectively reduced their U.S. Treasury holdings by $88.4 billion [3][5] Group 2: Shift to Gold Reserves - Concurrently, China's gold reserves have increased to 7.419 million ounces by January 2026, ranking sixth globally [3][7] - Global central banks purchased a record 863 tons of gold in 2025, with 95% indicating plans to continue increasing their gold holdings [7][20] Group 3: Geopolitical and Financial Considerations - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings is driven by concerns over financial security, particularly following the freezing of Russian assets by the U.S. and Europe [12][14] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38.56 trillion, with rising interest payments raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. Treasury securities [14][22] - The geopolitical landscape is influencing investment decisions, with countries prioritizing national security over traditional financial considerations [11][12] Group 4: Future Implications - The U.S. faces a significant amount of maturing debt, estimated between $8 trillion to $10 trillion over the next two years, necessitating new debt issuance [22] - The article suggests a potential restructuring of the global financial order, with a shift towards a multi-currency reserve structure and increased reliance on gold as a safe asset [20][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current standings of global currency payments, with the US dollar and euro maintaining dominant positions, while the Chinese yuan's internationalization is seen as underrepresented in the SWIFT rankings [1][3][12] - The US dollar holds a 49.68% share of global payments, despite a slight decrease, reinforcing its unmatched status in the market [3][10] - The euro ranks second with a 22.36% share, showing a month-over-month increase, but its actual international payment share is estimated to be around 25% when excluding intra-eurozone transactions [5][7] Group 2 - The yuan ranks fifth with a 3.13% share, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, and is the only emerging market currency in the top five [12][13] - The SWIFT statistics are criticized for not fully capturing the yuan's international usage, as many domestic and cross-border transactions are processed outside of the SWIFT network [15][17] - The article suggests that the yuan's 3.13% figure is merely the "tip of the iceberg," indicating that its true international influence is significantly greater than reported [19][27] Group 3 - The yuan's internationalization is supported by China's strong economic fundamentals, including its large trade volume and stable growth, which are essential for enhancing the yuan's global standing [22][30] - Recent trends show an increase in the use of the yuan for cross-border trade settlements and a growing number of countries incorporating it into their foreign exchange reserves [25][26] - The article emphasizes that the yuan's gradual rise in the global payment landscape reflects its resilience and potential, with expectations for its role to expand as the world moves towards a more diversified currency payment system [26][32]

黄金方面： 近期原油价格仍将受地缘摩擦影响。若美国和伊朗达成共识，将挤压风险溢价，油价恐将逐步回落；若谈判破裂，则油价明显 存在进一步上行风险；最后，中东局势小范围升级，美国对伊朗采取针对性有限的打击，伊朗较为有限的报复，则油价存在短 暂脉冲的可能性比较大。 技术面：日线上，近期行情自高位回落且收阴线，短期需要警惕油价进一步下行风险。不过行情仍然处于20日均线上方运行， 多头略占优势。日内关注下方64.54美元一线支撑情况。 美国贸易政策缺乏稳定性以及美国与伊朗的关系较为紧张，对金银价格形成支撑。不过美国短期维持利率不变的前景又将限制 金价上涨空间，黄金价格隔夜维持相对高位震荡调整。 美国法院裁定特朗普关税政策违法之后，特朗普对全球10%新关税已经生效，并且计划提高至15%，同时考虑对6个行业加征新 一轮关税。这就意味着特朗普逆全球化的政策大概率将持续，美元信用缺失这个黄金牛市的核心驱动因素并没有改变，故而黄 金价格仍然存在进一步走高的机会。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前黄金牛市核心驱动不变，金价有望维持偏强运行。不过美联储货币政策迎来空 窗期，短期金价上行空间恐将受限。 技术面：日线上，隔夜黄 ...

2026.02.26 周四 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 黄金的多头控盘在近期越发明显。 四连阳之后，近期的黄金处于相对高位连续的震荡中。周二的阴烛带来了调整后再看涨的预期，小时图上的顶背离仅用一个交易日就已经完成修正，周三的 含上影线的小阳烛，更是说明即便是震荡环境，多头也不容小觑。 恰好，昨天文章明确提出，需要着重关注5140—50支撑区域，三次支撑成立，黄金上冲至少要期待一下前高。5217新高刷新，可凌晨四点又被一根大阴带了 下来，重新测试关键支撑区域。 有意思的很，近两天的文章中不难看出，我对黄金的看法就是中长期以看涨为主，甚至当前都被归类于"蓄力吸筹"阶段。可一方面是机构在ETF中的真金白 银加码，一方面却是临在基本面前，观望保持不动。 黄金技术面上，昨晚的总结视频提到，能参考的收线只有上5200和下5140，可惜收线位于这两者之间晃荡。同时日线三轨收敛，四小时的三轨更是从宽幅缩 窄至5226—5130，很巧，这上下两轨，恰好可作为今天要重点关注的破位区间的防线（实体）得失。 发生在今天待定时间的美伊新一轮谈判，虽不是行情趋势上的重要事件，但却是日内观察被推动的必然选项。 对此，我的观点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar is perceived as an "invisible fee" for investors in the Hong Kong stock market, indicating that while they believe they are competing with the Hang Seng Index, they are actually being adversely affected by the US dollar cycle [1]. Group 1: Macro Forces Impacting Currency - The ongoing weakness of the Hong Kong dollar is driven by three macro forces: a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, market expectations of a "weak dollar strategy," and a complete reset of tariff expectations [3][4]. - The first driver is the potential change in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework, with the nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell, which is interpreted as a shift towards a policy that favors quicker interest rate cuts in exchange for stronger balance sheet discipline, thereby weakening the dollar's valuation [3]. - The second driver involves the publicization of a "weak dollar strategy" by US leadership, which has led to a re-evaluation of dollar assets and increased selling pressure on dollar-linked assets [4]. - The third driver is the legal ruling against the Trump administration's tariff policies, which has diminished the core narrative supporting short positions on the yuan, leading to significant short covering and further downward pressure on the dollar against the yuan [4]. Group 2: Support for the Renminbi - The renminbi is supported by a historically high trade surplus, projected to reach approximately $1.19 trillion in 2025, with exports expected to be around $3.77 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [5]. - The second support factor is the stability of monetary policy and marginal improvements in economic fundamentals, with the central bank maintaining the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and signaling no need for competitive devaluation to stimulate growth [5]. - The third support factor is the long-term trend of de-dollarization, with the renminbi's share in SWIFT trade financing increasing to 8.3% over four years, enhancing its valuation support independent of the dollar cycle [5]. Group 3: Economic Conditions in Hong Kong - Despite the weakening of the Hong Kong dollar, the local economy is showing signs of growth, with GDP expected to increase by about 3.5% in 2025 and a year-on-year growth of 3.8% in the fourth quarter, indicating a recovery in the stock market and service sector [6]. - The core issue remains that the linked exchange rate system requires Hong Kong's interest rates to follow the US dollar's trends, limiting the ability to provide valuation support for the Hong Kong dollar despite local economic recovery [6]. Group 4: Future Predictions - The current weakness of the dollar is viewed as a cyclical fluctuation rather than a structural collapse of dollar hegemony, with potential reversal points dependent on the maturation of key triggering conditions [7]. - Three core conditions for a reversal include the emergence of "second inflation" risks due to Warsh's policy framework, systemic trade barriers against Chinese exports in global southern markets, and the internal contradictions of the "weak dollar strategy" leading to increased inflation and financing costs [8]. - The market is expected to experience a two-phase rhythm: an initial phase of continued downward movement until early Q3 2026, followed by a correction and confirmation phase from late Q4 2026 to early Q1 2027, where focus will shift to inflation rebound and fiscal risks [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the main influencing factor for the market is the risk - aversion sentiment from Trump's new tariff policy and the tense geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The increasing divergence within the Fed has reduced the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June, which may limit the short - term upward speed of gold prices. For silver, the tight spot supply, low inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, continuous decline in New York inventory, and concerns about a potential squeeze in March support the further rebound of silver prices. [6] - In the future, gold is expected to enter a range - bound trend after the post - holiday price increase until there are new changes in tariff or geopolitical situations. Silver may remain relatively strong, but short - term price fluctuations should be watched out for. In the long - term, the underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of a Fed rate cut this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies suggest buying on dips. [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - **Precious Metal Prices**: On February 25, 2026, London gold spot was at $5193.14 per ounce, London silver spot was at $90.58 per ounce, COMEX gold was at $5212.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver was at $90.46 per ounce. The prices of AU2604, AG2604, AU (T + D), and AG (T + D) were 1151.06 yuan/gram, 23029 yuan/kilogram, 1147.40 yuan/gram, and 22105 yuan/kilogram respectively. Compared with February 24, the price of gold increased by about 0.4%, and the price of silver increased by about 3.1%. [5] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios of gold and silver in different markets showed various changes. For example, the gold ID - SHFE active price spread was - 3.66 yuan/gram on February 25, with a - 9.0% change compared to the previous day. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 49.98, with a - 3.0% change. [5] 2. Position Data - **ETF Positions**: As of February 24, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1094.19 tons, with a 0.71% increase compared to the previous day, and the silver ETF - SLV was 16107.91959 tons, with a 1.75% increase. [5] - **COMEX Non - commercial Positions**: For COMEX gold, the non - commercial long positions were 213432 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions were 53517 contracts. For COMEX silver, the non - commercial long positions were 36626 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions were 12623 contracts. There were corresponding changes in these positions compared to the previous day. [5] 3. Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: On February 25, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 105072.00 kilograms, with no change compared to the previous day, and the SHFE silver inventory was 355830.00 kilograms, with a 1.70% increase. [5] - **COMEX Inventory**: On February 24, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 33701164 troy ounces, with a - 0.22% change compared to the previous day, and the COMEX silver inventory was 364000164 troy ounces, with no change. [5] 4. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **Exchange Rates**: On February 25, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.93, with a - 0.13% change compared to the previous day. [5] - **Interest Rates and Stock Market Indexes**: On February 24, 2026, the US dollar index was 97.89, with a 0.15% increase; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.43%, with no change; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.04%, with a 0.25% increase; the VIX was 19.55, with a - 6.95% decrease; the S&P 500 was 6890.07, with a 0.77% increase; and NYMEX crude oil was $66.08, with a - 0.32% decrease. [5] 5. Market Review - On February 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.04% to 1151.06 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 4.57% to 23029 yuan/kilogram. [5]

Economic Challenges in the U.S. - The U.S. is facing significant internal and external pressures, including a surge in COVID-19 infections and economic contraction, leading to a crisis for the Biden administration [1] - The Biden administration's economic stimulus measures have resulted in the Federal Reserve printing over $5 trillion, equivalent to a quarter of the U.S. annual GDP of $20 trillion [5][6] Federal Reserve Policies - The Federal Reserve's extreme measures include unlimited money printing and reverse repos to manage the economy and capitalize on emerging markets [3][8] - The reverse repo policy initiated on August 18, 2021, involved the repurchase of $1.116 trillion in dollar assets, effectively reducing the dollar supply in the market [8] Global Economic Impact - The influx of dollars has led to global inflation and rising prices, affecting international markets and increasing the scarcity of production resources [6] - The U.S. dollar's status as the global reserve currency allows the Federal Reserve's actions to have far-reaching effects, including volatility in capital markets heavily reliant on the dollar [6] De-dollarization Trends - Countries like Iran and Russia are moving away from the dollar in oil transactions, while China and the EU are developing alternative payment systems to reduce reliance on the dollar [10] - Emerging markets such as Vietnam and India are particularly vulnerable to U.S. economic policies, with Vietnam's economy heavily dependent on U.S. exports and facing potential backlash from U.S. tariffs [10] Future Economic Outlook - The Biden administration's strategies to stabilize the U.S. economy through global financial manipulation may lead to a loss of trust in the dollar and increased global economic instability [10]

2026 年 2 月 26 日，全球黄金市场延续高位震荡态势，现货黄金日内围绕 5150 美元 / 盎司关口窄幅波动，开盘报 5148.2 美元 / 盎司，盘中最高触及 5182.6 美元 / 盎司，最低下探 5121.3 美元 / 盎司，截至纽约汇市午盘报 5153.7 美元 / 盎司，日内微涨 0.11%，波动率维持在 1.2% 以内，呈现典型的高位缩量震荡 格局。就在过去一个月内，黄金价格接连突破 4800、5000 美元两大整数关口，多次刷新历史最高纪录，从年初至今累计涨幅已超 12%，成为 2026 年开年 以来全球资本市场表现最亮眼的大类资产之一。 这场史诗级的上涨行情，核心源于全球不确定性持续攀升背景下，避险需求的集中释放与长期配置资金的持续涌入。但随着金价站上历史高位，市场分歧也 逐步显现：一边是普通投资者扎堆黄金回收门店高位套现，"以旧换新" 业务迎来高峰;另一边是机构资金持续增持，坚定看好黄金长期牛市格局。摩根大通 一、行情复盘：屡创历史新高后，黄金进入高位震荡蓄力期 回顾 2026 年开年以来的黄金走势，可谓一路高歌猛进。1 月初，现货黄金还在 4500 美元 / 盎司附近震荡整理，随着 ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.47%报 112.700 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.13%报 108.480 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.10%报 106.065 元，2 年 期主力合约跌 0.06%报 102.458 元。 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 16 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 24 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 公开市场方面，央行公告称，2 月 25 日以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Although prices have rebounded from the lows in late January, they have not fully recovered the previous declines. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman by Trump is the core disturbance. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the continuation of the global central bank's gold - buying spree, and the supply - demand situation in the industry all support the prices of platinum and palladium [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Platinum Futures**: For contracts pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 586.00, 579.70, and 576.50 respectively, with price increases of 38.50, 40.40, and 37.70, and rise - fall rates of 7.03%, 7.49%, and 7.00% respectively. The trading volumes are 10895, 290, and 267, and the open interests are all 12796 [1] - **Palladium Futures**: For contracts pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 457.95, 454.75, and 455.00 respectively, with price increases of 19.70, 19.35, and 21.30, and rise - fall rates of 4.50%, 4.44%, and 4.91% respectively. The trading volumes are 4461, 103, and 47, and the open interests are all 4334 [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Platinum Spot**: The Shanghai platinum price increased by 38.93 to 584.02, with a rise - fall rate of 0.071%. The London platinum price increased by 185.00 to 2323.00, with a rise - fall rate of 0.087%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 869.00 and 960.00 respectively, with a change of 33.00 and 0.00 and rise - fall rates of 0.039% and 0.000% [1] - **Palladium Spot**: The Chinese palladium price increased by 16.00 to 446.00, with a rise - fall rate of 0.037%. The Russian palladium price decreased by 68.37 to 4245.82, with a rise - fall rate of - 0.016% [1] 3.3 Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The NYMEX inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 578,195.22 ounces and 313,567.94 ounces respectively. The trading volume on the Gold Exchange increased by 192.0 kilograms to 258.00 kilograms, and the trading amount increased by 11306.2 ten - thousand yuan to 14,895.82 ten - thousand yuan [1] - **Palladium Inventory**: The NYMEX inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 186,268.54 ounces and 148,317.64 ounces respectively [1] 3.4 Related Derivatives and Indexes - **Related Indexes**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.23 to 97.66, the S&P 500 index increased by 56.06 to 6,946.13, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.01 to 4.05, the Nasdaq index increased by 288.40 to 23,152.08, the Dow Jones index increased by 307.65 to 49,482.15, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.01 to 6.93 [1] - **Related Derivatives**: For Shanghai gold contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the prices increased by 0.56, 0.52, and 1.00 respectively. For Shanghai silver contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the prices increased by 702, 756, and 819 respectively [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed maintains the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts, which is in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut, consistent with Trump - nominated director Milan [2] - **Fed Chairman Nomination**: Trump nominates former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, but the nomination needs Senate approval. Some senators oppose the nomination [2] - **China's Economic Data**: In January 2026, China's manufacturing market demand tightened, but production expanded, and the industrial structure continued to optimize. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were 50.1% and 52% respectively, showing stable and positive development [2] - **Payment Settlement Meeting**: The People's Bank of China requires promoting the high - quality development of the modern payment system in 2026, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening supervision, and improving service quality [3]