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去美元化比想象中更快!除了黄金,这3类资产正在悄悄涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-06 02:17
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, leading to a 0.5% drop in the US dollar index, while foreign investors reduced their holdings of US Treasuries from 35% to 23%, with China selling off $25.7 billion [1] - 95% of global central banks are increasing their gold reserves, with spot gold prices rising to $3,840 per ounce, a 41% increase over the year, indicating a shift towards de-dollarization [1] - The share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to 38%, while the share of BRICS countries' local currency settlements has increased to 4.6%, highlighting a significant trend in currency diversification [1] Group 2 - Silver is being recognized as an undervalued asset, with Russia investing $535 million in silver and Saudi Arabia entering the silver trust market, while the US Mint has faced a six-year shortage of silver coins, with a gap of 117.6 million ounces this year [3] - Silver's dual attributes as a safe-haven asset and its industrial demand, particularly in solar panels and electric vehicles, are driving its price up to $44.98, surpassing gold's price increase by 8% [3] - Investors are advised to focus on physical silver bars rather than commemorative coins due to lower premiums, making it more accessible for ordinary investors [3] Group 3 - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is gaining momentum, with Shanghai piloting digital RMB for cross-border payments and supporting 400 export-oriented enterprises in sectors like renewable energy and high-end manufacturing [5] - Two types of companies are expected to benefit: cross-border financial service providers involved in digital currency projects and high-end manufacturing firms that can save on exchange rate costs by using RMB for transactions [5] - An investor reported a 22% gain from a cross-border payment-themed ETF, reflecting the positive outlook on RMB internationalization [5] Group 4 - Commodity funds are expected to rise as the US dollar depreciates, with ordinary investors advised to buy corresponding funds instead of directly trading futures [7] - For example, copper funds are anticipated to perform well due to high demand from the electric vehicle and power grid sectors, while oil funds can hedge against dollar depreciation [7] - A diversified investment strategy is recommended, allocating portions to gold, silver, and RMB internationalization funds to mitigate risks [7] Group 5 - Long-term holding of silver and commodities is advised, as the process of de-dollarization is gradual, and short-term volatility should not deter investors from the long-term trend [8] - The trend of de-dollarization is difficult to reverse once established, and assets like gold, silver, and RMB-related stocks can provide dual protection against dollar depreciation and benefit from industry growth [8] - The current market presents an opportunity for investors to diversify beyond gold, as many are still focused solely on it, potentially missing out on other valuable assets [8]
华侨银行上调金价预测 料2026年突破4000美元关口
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-06 01:15
格隆汇10月6日|华侨银行环球经济与市场研究主管Heng Koon How表示,随着全球零售投资需求持续 升温,黄金的涨势毫无放缓迹象。自技术性突破每盎司3500美元后,黄金在过去一个月持续上行。他指 出,由去美元化担忧推动的强劲避险资金流入,正支撑着黄金ETF、期货及相关投资产品的需求。黄金 的所有关键长期利好因素——尤其是美元进一步走弱以及各国央行持续增加配置——依然稳固存在。叠 加零售投资兴趣激增,华侨银行因此进一步上调黄金价格预期,预计到2026年将突破每盎司4000美元。 ...
澳铁矿棋局生变!中方阳谋直刺美元软肋,全球货币博弈骤然加剧
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-06 01:09
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's strategic maneuvering in the iron ore market, particularly its efforts to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in global trade by proposing alternative settlement methods for iron ore transactions with Australia [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Moves - China has suggested to domestic buyers to pause purchasing iron ore from BHP Billiton in US dollars, targeting the company's dollar-based trading system [1]. - This move is seen as a strategic shift to divert attention from the heavily defended oil market to the relatively less scrutinized iron ore sector, creating a tactical advantage for China [2]. - The strategy reflects China's broader goal of reducing reliance on the US dollar and establishing a more diversified currency settlement system in international trade [6]. Group 2: Resource Control - China has prepared for potential disruptions in iron ore supply by securing significant stakes in iron ore projects in Africa and South America, such as the Simandou project in Guinea, which holds over 10 billion tons of high-quality iron ore [3]. - The collaboration with Brazil's Vale further strengthens China's position in the global iron ore market, allowing it to negotiate better terms with Australian suppliers [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - China offers two options to Australia: continue using the US dollar for transactions or switch to renminbi, which could enhance profits by avoiding dollar conversion fees [5]. - This approach tests the resilience of the US-led alliance system, particularly as Australia is a key ally in the Asia-Pacific region [5][8]. - If Australia opts for renminbi settlements, it could set a precedent that influences other US allies, potentially destabilizing the existing dollar-centric trade framework [5][8]. Group 4: Global Trade Dynamics - The article emphasizes that the current international monetary system is undergoing significant transformation, with China's push for renminbi settlements aiming to create a dual-currency supply-demand cycle [6]. - This shift could gradually reduce the dominance of the US dollar in global trade, as more countries engage in direct trade with China using renminbi [6]. - The strategic positioning of Australia in this context is critical, as any shift in its trade practices could have far-reaching implications for the US's network of allies [8][9].
金价突破870元大关!黄金凭啥成保值资产,这4大因素决定金价涨幅
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-05 13:38
看现在的生活,身边似乎就没有不贬值的。 吃的饭放几天就变质,买的手机用两年回收价就降低。 甚至是汽车,开两年就得换新了。 但在这么多的东西中,只有一样是反着来的,那就是黄金。 不需要小心翼翼的保养,也不会因为时效回收时大打折扣。 甚至放的时间再长,很有可能也会不掉价。 早从几千年前,从古埃及法老的权杖开始,黄金就带着贵气。 到了春秋战国那会,它直接成了能流通的货币。 不管哪个文明换了茬,黄金从来没被冷落过。 现在就更不用说了,十年前黄金每克才200多块,到今年10月,上海黄金T+D都突破 870元/克了。 伦敦金现更是飙到3875美元/盎司。 按照这时间线来看,说黄金是全球资产顶流都不为过。 有人可能会问,以前原始社会不也用贝壳当钱吗?为什么贝壳没价值? 第一个是美元,这俩就像天平的两头,一个涨另一个就跌。 当初布雷顿森林体系崩了之后,美元成了世界货币,但黄金还是跟它对着干。 只要美元信用不行了或者贬值了,黄金肯定涨。 因为贝壳随便捡都能有,根本撑不起"值钱"的信用; 像钢铁、铜铝这些金属,储量太多了,也没法当稳定的等价物。 黄金能这么牛,全靠三个独有的本事: 首先是少,物以稀为贵这话在黄金身上体现得淋漓尽致 ...
金价站上870元!眼看要冲900元,现在上车还来得及吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-05 07:22
黄金价格冲破860元/克、站上870元/克,眼看就要向900元/克逼近,当下还能买入黄金吗?近期黄金首饰价格涨势如脱缰野马,牛市行情几乎毫无阻力。 买了黄金与没买黄金的人或许都感到困惑,因为完全搞不懂黄金上涨的逻辑。其实不必困惑,当前黄金上涨逻辑已彻底改变,不再是以往简单的买涨卖跌, 而是全球经济大格局发生了转变。 首先要明白黄金为何突然"值钱",最核心的原因是黄金的货币属性回归。 表面看是供需关系变化,实则是市场对纸币(尤其是美元)的信任度下降。美联储9月再次加息25个基点,这已是连续第三次加息。 加息背后隐藏着美国的债务问题:美国政府债务已突破35万亿美元,平均到每个美国家庭需承担26万美元债务。这意味着美元发行过量,纸币越印越贬值, 市场自然会寻求可靠的"锚定物"。 中国黄金协会首席经济学家曾表示: "当纸币的信用基础不稳,黄金这一千年硬通货必然会凸显价值。" 例如,2001年至2011年黄金价格上涨600%,主要驱动力是新兴市场央行增持;而2018年至今的上涨(涨幅已达280%),驱动因素更多元——包括美联储降 息预期、地缘风险加剧、数字货币冲击等,并非单一因素支撑,因此行情更为稳健。 这句话十分中肯 ...
中国“锄头”猛挖美元霸权墙角!美国霸权这下真“扛不住”了!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-05 05:08
Core Insights - China has made a significant decision to suspend dollar settlements for iron ore imports from Australia, raising concerns in international economic and political spheres [1][3] - Australia, while being a close ally of the U.S., heavily relies on China for trade, with the trade volume expected to exceed $210 billion in 2024 [1][3] - The move is seen as a strategic blow to the U.S. dollar's dominance, as losing China as a major customer could severely impact Australia's economy [3][5] Group 1 - The suspension of dollar settlements is a critical maneuver that could destabilize the U.S. dollar's position, especially if even close allies like Australia begin to abandon it [3][6] - Australia exports only $24.3 billion to the U.S. annually, indicating that the loss of Chinese trade could create a significant economic void that the U.S. cannot fill [3][5] - China's approach is likened to a strategic "Taiji" move, targeting Australia's economic lifeline while signaling discontent with dollar-based transactions [3][8] Group 2 - The internationalization of the renminbi is advancing rapidly, with China prepared to counter potential threats from the U.S. regarding SWIFT and dollar dominance [6][8] - Australia is not the only country considering abandoning the dollar, as discussions with Saudi representatives suggest a broader trend towards de-dollarization [6][8] - The relationship between China and Australia is characterized as mutually beneficial, with Australia providing essential resources that China needs [5][6]
美拿航权要稀土?中国狂抛1829亿美债后囤金,全球央行跟风调整
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-05 04:28
美国那边最近又开始折腾稀土的事儿了,国会里有个议员直接放话,说中国要是不老实供应稀土,就卡 中国航班在美国机场的着陆权。这话听着挺狠的,直接把航权当筹码使。稀土这玩意儿,美国离不开, 中国手里攥着全球七成产量和九成精炼产能,用在F-35战机、导弹导引头还有电动车电机上,缺了它生 产线就得停摆。2025年9月20日,这消息一出,媒体就炸锅了,各种报道说这威胁没啥实际效果,但也 暴露了美国对供应链的焦虑。 早几个月,4月14日,美国就开始担心中国控制关键矿产的风险,国防系 统都受影响。 6月3日,中国暂停稀土出口,直接让美国和欧洲工厂面临短缺,生产线关门的风险直线上升。 到6月9 日,中美贸易谈判里,美国明确要中国放松稀土出口管制。 7月,美国立法压力加大,拜登政府禁了中 国产稀土磁铁用于国防,到2027年强制执行。 8月22日,中国新规打击稀土走私,说这威胁国家安全。 9月18日,美国议员又催特朗普搞盟友策略,对中国稀土加200%关税。 整个过程,美国想通过贸易谈 判和关税逼中国让步,但供应链重塑没那么快,专家说至少得5到10年。 中国带头,9月7日央行买金到10个月连涨。 世界黄金协会9月3日数据,7月买金放 ...
中国开始全面反击,暂停澳铁矿石进口,大豆与铁矿关键让中国抓住了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-05 03:03
Core Insights - Australia's Prime Minister Albanese expressed disappointment over China's suspension of BHP's iron ore purchases, highlighting the significant economic impact, as iron ore exports contribute over AUD 138 billion annually, accounting for 5% of Australia's GDP [1][3] - China's action marks a shift in power dynamics, as it represents the first instance of a collective supply halt, signaling that buyers can dictate pricing [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The suspension of BHP's shipments follows a request from China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) for domestic steel mills to halt all dollar-denominated purchases from BHP, indicating a failure to agree on pricing [3] - Historically, Chinese steel companies have faced significant price increases, with a 96% surge in iron ore prices in 2008, leading to a long-standing resentment towards the pricing power of major miners [3] - In 2024, BHP's pricing for China is still expected to be 35% higher than prices in other regions, reflecting ongoing pricing disparities [3] Group 2: Strategic Shifts - The establishment of CMRG in 2022 has consolidated the purchasing power of Chinese steel companies, allowing for more effective negotiations against major miners like BHP [5] - CMRG's role as a "single buyer" has fundamentally changed the negotiation landscape, moving away from fragmented purchasing strategies [5] - China is diversifying its supply sources, signing a 50 million ton/year agreement with Brazil's Vale for RMB-denominated transactions, and initiating shipments from Guinea's Simandou iron ore project, which is expected to reach 60 million tons by 2026 [5] Group 3: Currency and Trade Implications - The shift to RMB-denominated transactions is a critical aspect of China's strategy, challenging the dominance of the US dollar in iron ore trade, which is valued at USD 1.2 trillion annually [7] - The introduction of a new iron ore price index by China's port trading center directly contests the long-standing Platts index, indicating a move towards greater pricing autonomy [7] - The decline of the dollar's share in global reserves, now at 58%, alongside the rise of the RMB to 3.7%, suggests a broader trend towards de-dollarization in international trade [7] Group 4: Broader Economic Trends - The ongoing dynamics in the iron ore market mirror similar trends in agricultural commodities, such as China's shift from US soybeans to Brazilian sources [8] - The interdependence of these markets highlights a strategic response to geopolitical tensions, particularly in light of trade wars and regional disputes [10] - CMRG's control over imports and domestic resource integration is indicative of a larger trend towards resource security and economic self-sufficiency in China [13]
特朗普宣布月底和中方见面,关键时刻,普京改口,宣布不反美元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-04 19:40
当美国中西部农场主们看着仓库里堆积如山的大豆发出绝望叹息时,特朗普在社交媒体上敲下了一行字:"四周后,我要在APEC峰会上和中方谈谈大豆。 这句话看似强硬,却透着一丝仓促。 与此同时,一贯高举"去美元化"大旗的普京突然改口:"俄罗斯不反美元,只是被迫不用。 " 两大事件看似无关,却共同揭示了一个现实:全球贸易的棋局中,谁手握筹码,谁才能淡定落子。 而中国,正握着大豆这张王牌。 2025年秋收季,美国农民面临一场前所未有的噩梦。 印第安纳州豆农吉姆·史密斯对着媒体镜头苦笑:"这是我种出最好的大豆,但现在只能搅碎在地里,因 数据显示,截至9月18日,中国在新销售季未向美国下达任何大豆订单,这是自1999年有记录以来的首次归零。 特朗普的应对策略充满矛盾。 他先试图组建"关税联盟",施压欧盟和G7对中国加税,但遭德国总理默茨明确拒绝:"不能与中国打贸易战。 " 盟友退缩后,特朗普转向单边行动:8月延长对华关税休战90天,同时威胁对中国稀土征收200%关税。 联邦法院在8月28日裁定特朗普的关税政策"越权违法",要求90天内整改,进一步削弱其谈判筹码。 紧迫的是时间窗口。 APEC峰会于10月底举行,但美国大豆收获季 ...
特朗普官宣10月底和中方会面,紧要关头,普京转向,宣告不反对美元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-04 19:35
美国中西部农田里,金灿灿的大豆堆成小山,却找不到买家。 而在遥远的莫斯科,普京一句"我们不反对美元"的表态,让国际观察家们猝不及防。 这两件 看似无关的事,正通过一条隐形的链条紧密相连。 2025 年 9月19日 此时,美国大豆对华出口已降至零记录,农业州压力直达白宫。 与此同时,10 月 2 日普京在"瓦尔代"国际辩论俱乐部会议上修正了俄罗斯的"去美元化"立 场,强调只是"被禁止使用美元"。 大豆滞销成为特朗普的政治包袱。 中国去年进口了价值120亿美元的美国大豆,占美国大豆出口总额一半以上,但今年采购量直接归零。 美国农场主的谷仓 占用率超过90%,新豆收获季即将到来,储存空间严重不足。 印第安纳州农民协会联合十余个农业团体向白宫提交联名信,明确指出高额关税导致大豆失 去中国市场。 特朗普面临的不仅是经济账,更是政治账。 农业州是共和党的传统票仓,大豆主产区如艾奥瓦、伊利诺伊等州对选举结果影响显著。 特朗普在社媒发文 称:"美国大豆种植者正面临损失,中国此举是为谈判考量而暂停采购……我计划于四周后与中方代表会晤,大豆议题将成为磋商重点。 "但白宫尚未公布 具体行程,中方也仅表示"双方正在沟通之中"。 中国 ...