1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. Pay attention to risk control during the Spring Festival [7][8]. - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility will significantly increase, and it is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [9]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices may continue the weak - oscillating pattern. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [10][11]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue the oscillating pattern in the medium term. Investors can look for low - buying opportunities and pay attention to position management [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: There may be opportunities to go long in the low - range. Consider the low - cost and rigid cost conditions [18]. - **Crude Oil**: There is some progress in US - Iran negotiations, but geopolitical risks remain. It is advisable to hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [19][20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply shortage in Singapore has eased, but there is still room for an upward movement due to the unresolved Iran risk. Hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: Be cautious in pre - holiday operations [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: Control positions before the holiday [30]. - **PVC**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [32]. - **Urea**: Expected to be oscillating and strong [33]. - **PX**: May oscillate and adjust in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to external market fluctuations during the Spring Festival [34]. - **PTA**: May oscillate, with a small inventory build - up expected. Be cautious, and pay attention to the resumption of downstream factories after the holiday [35]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is still pressure above, and it may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern. Be cautious and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [36]. - **Short - Fiber**: Trade based on the cost - end logic before the holiday. Be cautious and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory [37]. - **Bottle Chips**: Follow the cost - end trend. Be cautious before the holiday and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices and external market changes during the holiday [38]. - **Soda Ash**: Be cautious due to the off - season fundamentals. Hold light positions during the holiday [39]. - **Glass**: The market is generally loose. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday, paying attention to the return to fundamentals [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory situation has slightly improved. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday [41]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the impact on pre - holiday prices is temporarily dull. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Control risks [44]. - **Copper**: May experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. - **Aluminum**: May be under pressure [47][48]. - **Zinc**: Will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. - **Lead**: Expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. - **Tin**: There is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify. Control risks [54]. - **Nickel**: The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [61][62][63]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. - **Apples**: In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. - **Hogs**: Wait and see before the holiday due to the supply - demand imbalance [69][70]. - **Eggs**: Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. - **Logs**: The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76]. 3. Summary by Directory Pulp - The main 2605 contract closed at 5238 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the domestic supply also increased slightly. The downstream pre - holiday procurement ended, and the market entered a demand vacuum period. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. Carbonate Lithium - The main contract rose 3.66% to 149,420 yuan/ton. The supply is in a tight balance, the consumption side has improved, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing. There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase [44]. Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,030 yuan/ton, down 2.56%. The market sentiment declined, and the fundamentals weakened. The copper price may experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,395 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,811 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The alumina is bearish, and the aluminum price may be under pressure [47][48]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,435 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the zinc price will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 4.27% to 376,330 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is tight, and there is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [54]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.74% to 135,070 yuan/ton. The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the cost is expected to rise. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract rose 1.16% to 2,290 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.22% to 8,082 yuan/ton. The soybean meal demand continues to grow moderately, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive trading day. The supply may increase, and the export decreased. Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed followed the rise of US soybean oil futures but did not break through the resistance level. The Chinese import situation has changed, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [61][63]. Cotton - The domestic Zheng cotton oscillated. The USDA February supply - demand report is bearish. In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. Sugar - The Zheng sugar rose and then fell; the overnight external raw sugar fell to a new low. India has a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic market faces dual supply pressure. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. Apples - The domestic apple futures oscillated. The current market is in a vacuum period. In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. Hogs - The main contract rose 0.13% to 11,540 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and it is advisable to wait and see before the holiday [69][70]. Eggs - The main contract rose 1.56% to 3,200 yuan/500kg. The supply in February may remain at a relatively high level. Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. Corn and Starch - The corn main contract rose 0.83% to 2,320 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.51% to 2,572 yuan/ton. The corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. Logs - The main 2603 contract closed at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The shipping volume has recovered, but the downstream demand is weakening. The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76].

中辉有色观点 | | 1 11 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | 1 | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 或是因为美股下跌造成贵金属等价格踩踏，黄金大跌，另外美联储官员强调联储独 | | ★ | 企稳多配 | 立性，盘面继续调整。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金 | | | | （中国央行连续 15 个月购金），长期战略配置价值不变。关注调整幅度。 | | 白银 | | 其他原因造成白银资金踩踏出逃，再次下跌。尽管长期理由仍然存在供需缺口连续 5 | | | 等待降波 | 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，但是短期市场会继续调整，保持关注，短期参 | | ★ | | 与难度大，风险报酬比不合适。 | | | | 俄罗斯意图重返美元结算系统，削弱去美元化叙事，贵金属和科技股暴跌，COMEX | | 铜 | 空仓过节 | 铜库存去化，隔夜铜测试 10 万关口支撑，假期外部风险增加，波动剧烈，建议铜空 | | ★ | | 仓过节。 | | 锌 | | 锌外强内弱，随着春节长假临近，需求疲软，锌锭库 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 去美元化长期趋势不变，短期全 球流动性下降，金价承压 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 节前资金了结意愿强，驱动不强 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨夜金价跳水，纽约金一度下挫近 200 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; buying on dips for glass [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Reducing trading positions for general traders before the holiday for copper, increasing hedging coverage; strengthening observation for aluminum; observing for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporarily observing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][15] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range; expecting apples and jujubes to trade in a range [1][25] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Partially taking profits on short positions in hogs before the year, adopting a rolling short strategy on rebounds; reducing positions in eggs before the holiday, avoiding short - chasing; being cautious about chasing highs in corn, suggesting hedging on rebounds for grain - holding entities; observing the performance of the M2605 contract at 2700 for soybean meal, shorting on highs [1][27] - **Oils and Fats**: High - level oscillation, suggesting buying on dips, paying attention to position risks before the holiday [3][32] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market trends, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, inventory, cost, and policy to analyze the price trends of different futures and gives corresponding trading strategies [1][5][9] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips. Before the holiday, they may trade in a range, and it is advisable to hold positions lightly and focus on defense [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade in a range. Although the overall price level shows a mild recovery, the bond market's reaction to price data is limited. After the holiday, there are uncertainties regarding important meetings and bond supply [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended as the coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited [1][7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade in a range. The futures price is undervalued, but the demand has declined, and the inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to trade lightly before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: Buying on dips is recommended. Although there are supply and demand constraints, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level, and there may be variables before the contract expires [7][8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to trade in a range. The recent sharp decline is mainly due to macro - level panic. Although the supply is tight, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. General traders are advised to reduce positions, while hedgers are advised to increase hedging coverage [9] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade at a high level. The supply is increasing, but the demand is weakening. It is advisable to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [10] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade in a range. Although the nickel ore supply is strong, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to observe [12] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to supply and demand changes [13][14] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data. The medium - term price center is rising, and short - term adjustment is expected. It is recommended to trade in a range [14][15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [15] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade in a wide range at a low level. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [15][17] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade at a low level. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to observe [17] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade in a range. The inventory is expected to decrease, but the valuation is high. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is in the off - season, and the demand is weak before the holiday. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory and downstream consumption [19][20] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is stable, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to trade in the range of 1730 - 1830 [20] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is decreasing, the demand is weak, and the price is affected by geopolitical and port factors [21] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to trade weakly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on highs [22][24] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to observe. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space may be limited [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to adjust in a range. Although the long - term outlook is optimistic, the short - term is under pressure from the internal - external price difference [25] - **Apples**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is stable during the Spring Festival stocking period, and the trading volume of different grades of fruits varies [25] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality [27] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: They are expected to build a bottom in a range. Before the year, partial profit - taking on short positions is recommended, and a rolling short strategy on rebounds can be adopted. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase in the first half of the year, and the price may be under pressure [27] - **Eggs**: They are expected to rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the position should be reduced, and short - chasing should be avoided. It is advisable to hedge on rebounds for the 05 and 06 contracts [29] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [30][31] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade in a range at a low level. The M2605 contract should pay attention to the support at 2700, and short positions can be established on highs [31] Oils and Fats - They are expected to oscillate at a high level. The fundamentals of the three major oils are mixed, with soybean oil expected to be relatively strong, and palm oil and rapeseed oil relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to position risks before the holiday [32][37]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have declined, with silver experiencing a significant drop due to a decrease in market risk appetite and liquidity shocks impacting prices [1] Economic Data - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, significantly exceeding the expected 70,000 [1] - The unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, lower than the anticipated 4.4% [1] - Following the data release, expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, although the overall U.S. job market is trending towards a slowdown [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to require interest rate cuts for support, particularly after the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office mid-year [1] Long-term Factors - Long-term supportive factors for gold, such as de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases, remain intact [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 15th consecutive month [1] Market Expectations - After sufficient market adjustments and accumulation of new positive factors, gold is anticipated to return to a steady upward trend [1] - Due to the higher volatility of silver compared to gold and the current low gold-silver ratio, investors are advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach [1]

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, now predicting a surplus of 3.73 million barrels per day, slightly higher than the previous month's estimate of 3.69 million barrels per day [1] - The surplus is primarily driven by increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, despite a slowdown in global oil demand growth [1][3] - The IEA has adjusted its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2026 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, indicating that supply growth is outpacing demand growth [3] Group 2: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals, particularly silver, have seen significant declines, attributed to a drop in U.S. tech stocks and a decrease in market risk appetite [2][18] - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, exceeding expectations, which has tempered interest rate cut expectations, although the overall employment market is cooling [2][18] - Despite short-term volatility, long-term factors such as de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases remain supportive for gold prices, with expectations for a return to a steady upward trend [2][18] Group 3: Stock Market Overview - U.S. stock indices have declined, with a market turnover of 2.16 trillion yuan, and a reduction in financing balance by 15.917 billion yuan to 26.27824 trillion yuan [4][11] - February is expected to maintain a phase of positive momentum, supported by seasonal recovery in consumption and the release of policy dividends from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][11] - However, potential volatility in overseas capital markets during the upcoming holiday period, particularly due to geopolitical risks, should be monitored [4][11] Group 4: Agricultural Products - Brazil's cotton exports for the 2025/26 season are projected to reach 14.5 million bales, an increase of 1.5 million bales year-on-year, marking a record high for the third consecutive year [1] - The growth in cotton exports is primarily driven by demand from China, Bangladesh, Turkey, and India, with an expected year-on-year increase of 6% [1] Group 5: Commodity Price Movements - The COMEX reported a significant drop in registered silver inventory by 3.256882 million ounces, with total inventory falling below 100 million ounces to 98.138005 million ounces [1] - The physical outflow of qualified delivery silver exceeded 4.7 million ounces in a single day, indicating a net outflow from the trading system [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant factors driving the long-term bullish trend in the gold market over the past decade, highlighting geopolitical risks, changes in dollar credibility, collective central bank purchases, and shifts in asset allocation logic as the main drivers of gold's price surge. Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has surged due to increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, with events like Brexit, trade wars, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict contributing to gold price spikes [10][12][13] - The global macroeconomic risks and rising inflation expectations have acted as accelerators for gold prices, with significant price movements observed during key geopolitical events [13] Group 2: Dollar Weakness - The weakening of the US dollar has positively impacted gold prices, as a decline in dollar credibility makes gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies [14] - The total US national debt has ballooned from $18 trillion in 2015 to over $38 trillion, undermining confidence in the dollar and contributing to gold's price increase [14][15] Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves, with gold accounting for 20% of global central bank reserve assets by 2024, surpassing US Treasury bonds for the first time in 30 years by 2025 [16][17] - The annual gold purchases by central banks have exceeded 1,000 tons since 2022, indicating a strong and accelerating demand for gold as a reserve asset [17][18] Group 4: Changing Asset Allocation Logic - There has been a fundamental shift in global asset allocation, with gold emerging as a strategic investment asset rather than merely a decorative item, particularly in the Chinese market [19][20] - The younger demographic is increasingly investing in gold, with a notable rise in gold jewelry ownership among consumers aged 18 to 24, reflecting a shift towards more frequent and smaller-scale investments [20]

最近特朗普政府突然直接打出一张金融王炸，美国众议院以395比2的压倒性票数，通过所谓台湾保护法 案，扬言要把中国踢出全球核心美元金融体系。 消息一出，岛内不少人跟着起哄，可唯独赖清德愁眉苦脸，一点都高兴不起来。这到底是怎么回事？ 美国想拿美元霸权卡死中国脖子 可他们忘了，美元霸权早就不是铁板一块。根据国家外汇管理局2026年1月发布的官方数据，我国外汇 储备稳定在3.4万亿美元以上，人民币跨境结算占对外收付比例持续提升，CIPS跨境支付系统2024年交 易金额同比增长43%，已经成为替代SWIFT的可靠通道。 美国以为这是王炸，其实不过是把美元武器化的老套路，早就被世界各国看透了。 金融制裁从来都是双刃剑 美国不是第一次用这招，之前对俄罗斯、对伊朗都用过，结果怎么样呢？ 2022年俄乌冲突爆发，美国联合欧洲把俄罗斯部分银行踢出SWIFT，号称金融核弹，结果俄罗斯快速建 立本土支付系统，推动油气贸易卢布结算，不到两年就稳住金融局面，反倒加速全球去美元化浪潮。 央视网和中央纪委国家监委网站都曾报道，美国前财长耶伦公开承认，对俄SWIFT制裁，直接引发全球 多国加速抛弃美元，动摇美元根基。 特朗普这届政府，上来就没 ...

有意思的是，面对这个情况，美国财政部长贝森特最近公开讲话的调子却变了，他强调美国不希望和中国脱钩，甚至说中美关系处在"相当舒适的位置"。一 边是我们持续减持他们国家的"借条"，另一边是他们高层放软话，这背后到底发生了什么？今天我们就来拆解一下这盘金融与战略交织的大棋。 最近金融圈有个大动静，中国还在持续抛售美国国债，而且手笔不小。到去年11月，咱们手里的美债已经降到6826亿美元，差不多是2008年金融危机时的水 平了。算下来，我们从2013年的顶峰时期，已经抛掉了将近一半。 过去，我们积累了大量的美元资产，主要是美国国债，这就像把很多鸡蛋放在了一个篮子里。现在，国际环境变了，把一部分鸡蛋挪到黄金、其他货币资产 以及全球实物投资里，是任何一个大型经济体都会做的风险分散操作。 更直接的背景是国际政治经济环境的不确定性在增加。过去几年，美国频繁使用金融制裁工具，比如在俄乌冲突后，冻结甚至讨论没收俄罗斯的美元资产。 这个举动给全世界所有持有大量美元资产的国家都敲响了警钟。大家心里都会打鼓：今天可以对俄罗斯这么做，明天如果关系紧张，会不会轮到我？这种潜 在的风险，促使中国必须提前做好准备，降低对单一美元资产的过度依赖 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gold market has shown relative stability after experiencing significant fluctuations in international gold prices, with prices remaining above the critical psychological level of $5000 per ounce [1][5]. Domestic Gold Prices - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T D price is reported at 1128.94 yuan per gram, a slight increase of 0.61% from the previous trading day [3]. - The basic gold price for AU9999 is 1117.37 yuan per gram, showing a minor decrease of 0.04% [3]. - Investment gold bars are priced between 1136 yuan and 1148 yuan per gram, with specific bank offerings such as China Construction Bank's Longding gold bar at 1144.25 yuan per gram and Bank of China at 1148.36 yuan per gram [3]. - Brand gold jewelry prices remain high, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang priced at 1560 yuan per gram, which includes brand premiums and craftsmanship costs, approximately 400 yuan higher than the basic gold price [3]. International Gold Market - The spot gold price is at $5032.87 per ounce, slightly down by 0.50%, but still above the $5000 mark [5]. - International gold prices experienced extreme volatility, with a significant drop on January 30, followed by a sharp increase on February 3, marking the largest single-day increase since 2009 [5]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T D price fell to a low of 1081 yuan per gram on February 5, a decrease of 4.29% from the previous day [5]. Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Global central bank gold purchases are a major driving force, with a reported net purchase of 230 tons in Q4 2025, a 6% increase quarter-on-quarter [6]. - China's gold reserves reached 2304.5 tons by the end of October 2025, reflecting a continuous increase over 12 months [6]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, enhancing its appeal as a non-yielding asset [6]. - Geopolitical risks continue to inject uncertainty into the market, reinforcing gold's status as a traditional safe-haven asset [6]. - The supply-demand dynamics show a tightening market, with global gold production around 3600 tons per year from 2016 to 2024, while demand has surged to over 4500 tons annually from 2022 to 2024, creating a persistent supply gap [6]. Consumer Behavior in the Gold Market - The domestic physical gold market is characterized by simultaneous "consumption heat" and "recovery heat," driven by festive consumption and preservation needs as the Spring Festival approaches [8]. - There is a notable increase in foot traffic in brand gold stores, with some popular styles experiencing supply shortages [8]. - The gold recovery market is also bustling, with consumers opting to cash in at high prices, leading to increased business for recovery shops [8]. - Young consumers are changing their perception of gold, viewing it as both a store of value and a fashionable accessory [8]. - Sales personnel report a surge in customers concerned about potential price increases after the holiday, prompting pre-holiday purchases [8]. Market Dynamics - On February 10, the gold T D opened at 1119.5 yuan per gram, with a peak of 1130.8 yuan and a low of 1114.5 yuan, indicating a strengthening bullish sentiment [10]. - The silver market has shown even more volatility, with a reported drop of 9.71% as of February 5, highlighting the broader market fluctuations [10].