对于投资者和消费者而言，与其焦虑地猜测"历史是否会重演"，不如做好以下几项更实际的"心理准备"： 这种回调，本质上都是对前期走势的消化和修正。无论是2015年消化牛市泡沫，还是当前消化对美联储降息预期过度乐观的情绪，市场都需要通过价格波动 来寻求新的平衡点。因此，短期波动的形态和对经济数据的敏感反应，构成了两个时代金价"神似"的表象。 然而，表面的波动相似，绝不能掩盖背后驱动逻辑的天壤之别。今日金价所处的宏观环境，与2015年已有根本性不同。 绝对价格与周期位置不同：2015年，国际金价从1900美元的历史峰巅滑落，处于一个明确的下跌大周期之中。而当前，尽管从高点回调，但金价仍牢牢站在 4500美元以上的历史性高位平台，整体处于一个长期上升趋势中的高位震荡阶段。一个是"从山顶滑向山谷"，一个是"在山顶平台整理"，两者所处的周期位 置截然不同。 核心驱动力不同：2015年的下跌，主要受美国经济强劲复苏、美联储开启加息周期、美元持续走强等单一利空因素主导。而当前市场的核心叙事要复杂得 多：一方面，市场预期全球央行即将转向降息，这在中长期对黄金构成利好；另一方面，短期美元和美债收益率的反复又形成压制。同时，全球地缘 ...

您猜怎么着？ 2025年黄金从1900美元飙到2400美元，有人半年赚了套房首付，也有人刚追高就被套牢。 现在全网都在问：2026年这波黄 金牛市还能续命吗？ 别急着下结论，先看三个扎心现实 第一根柱子摇摇欲坠：美联储的降息镰刀悬在头顶 您知道现在挖一克黄金多难吗？ 秘鲁矿工罢工、南非电厂停电，全球金矿产量连续五年下滑，2025年只剩3600吨，比五年前少了整整200 吨！ 更狠的是成本暴涨，深层矿井开采费比十年前贵了40%，小矿场纷纷倒闭。 另一边需求却在疯涨：印度人结婚季抢金饰，中国人过 年买金条，连光伏板都要掺黄金。 供需缺口越撕越大，金价想大跌？ 难！ 普通人的生存指南：别被忽悠当韭菜 2025年黄金暴涨的核心密码，就是美联储一口气降息三次，把利率从5.5%砍到3.25%。 存银行利息缩水一半，谁还傻乎乎存钱？ 转头买 黄金的人挤破头。 但2026年这招可能失灵了！ 美国核心CPI还在2.5%晃悠，离2%目标差得远。 要是通胀突然反弹，美联储很可能踩刹 车。 别忘了2021年他们刚放风加息，黄金当场暴跌10%。 现在市场赌今年降息三次，真要变成只降一次，金价怕是要坐过山车。 看到这儿您肯定想问：现在还 ...

Core Insights - The share of US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased by 2.48 percentage points from Q1 2022 to Q3 2025, reaching a record low of 56.92% [1] - The ICE US Dollar Index fell by 9.4% in 2025, marking the largest annual decline in eight years, amid concerns over the US economic policies and the weakening of the dollar's credit [1] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining traction, but the relationship between the dollar's reserve status and its exchange rate is not stable [1][7] Group 1: Historical Context - Since the 2008 financial crisis, there has been a reflection on the current dollar-based international monetary system, with calls for a more stable reserve currency [2] - The dollar's share in global reserves was 64.68% at the end of 2016, higher than at the end of 2008, but began to decline after 2017, dropping a total of 7.76 percentage points by Q3 2025 [2] Group 2: Recent Developments - From Q1 2022 onwards, the main beneficiaries of the diversification of international reserve assets have been physical reserve assets, particularly gold, which saw its share increase by 11.93 percentage points [4] - The dollar's share in global reserves decreased by 8.93 percentage points during the same period, while other major reserve currencies also saw declines [4] Group 3: Dollar Index Performance - Despite the decline in dollar reserves, the dollar index increased by 1.9% from Q1 2022 to Q3 2025, indicating a divergence between the dollar's reserve status and its strength [5][6] - The dollar index's performance is influenced by various factors, including the depreciation of other major currencies against the dollar [6] Group 4: Factors Influencing Dollar Status - The rise in gold's share in global reserves is attributed more to the increase in gold prices rather than central bank purchases, which contributed only 12.3% to the increase in gold reserves [8] - The dollar remains dominant in international payments and foreign exchange transactions, with a 48.15% share in global payment currencies in 2025, an increase from 2021 [9] Group 5: Future Considerations - The evaluation of the dollar's international status should consider multiple dimensions, including private sector interest in dollar assets, which remains strong despite official sector reductions [11] - The complexity of factors influencing exchange rates suggests that the progress of international reserve asset diversification should not be solely relied upon to predict dollar index movements [12]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 段福林 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货黄金周报 短线或有波动，但中线看多黄金逻 辑不变 20260118 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F3048935 交易咨询号：Z0015600 审核：邓丹，从业资格号: F0300922，交易咨询号：Z0011401 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 通胀、利率 4 美国经济 5 黄金供需平衡表 6 汇率 美元指数 7 黄金内外价差 8 黄金基差 9 金银油比价 ＆ 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 策略观点与展望 u 风险因素：1、美联储加息；2、美国通胀一直下行；3、美国财政赤字率下行。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 展望：上周五黄金主力合约高位震荡，地缘政治冲突变化较快，短线或有波动，但中线看多黄金逻辑不变 ...

Market Overview - The commodity market has shown significant differentiation since 2025, with precious metals like gold and silver leading the market, increasing by 63% and 111% respectively, while energy and agricultural products have underperformed, with crude oil down 16% and agricultural indices only slightly up by 3% [5][12] - As of early 2026, metals such as gold, silver, copper, and aluminum continue to rise, with smaller metals like nickel and tin experiencing sharp increases, indicating a clear rotation in the market and heightened investor sentiment regarding the potential onset of a new super cycle in commodities [5][12] Historical Super Cycles - Since 1850, there have been five historical super cycles in commodities, characterized by a pattern of "bull short, bear long," with the average upward phase lasting about 13 years and a price increase of approximately 75%, while the downward phase averages 21 years with a price decline of about 47% [5][13][21] - The first cycle (1850-1898) was driven by the spread of the Industrial Revolution and global infrastructure development, while the second cycle (1899-1932) was influenced by the Second Industrial Revolution and World War I, leading to price increases in strategic resources like copper and oil [14][16][21] Bullish Logic: Financial Attributes and Industrial Trends - The bullish argument is primarily based on the safe-haven value and industrial demand, with global monetary easing and fiscal expansion contributing to a noticeable recovery in economic sentiment across major economies [23][25] - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization has positioned commodities as a preferred option for sovereign nations to hedge against credit devaluation, with central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves, indicating a potential rise in commodity ETF allocations [25][30] Bearish Views: Demand Slowdown and Policy Constraints - Bearish concerns focus on the demand side, highlighting a lack of new engines for growth, particularly as emerging economies like India exhibit "dematerialization" growth, leading to lower metal consumption per unit of GDP [64] - Central banks are increasingly prioritizing inflation control, which may lead to a tightening response to rapid commodity price increases, potentially suppressing overall commodity market space [64][66]

有人觉得奇怪：别人都在抢，中国却拼命卖，是不是吃亏？其实把镜头拉远就能看懂。外资持有美债的占比早就从2008年 的近六成掉到如今的四分之一左右，美国政府自己成了最大买家，美联储、养老金、共同基金轮番顶上。简单说，海外买 家已从"主角"变成"配角"，中国只是顺着大势提前下车。 中国这边，减持美债的同时黄金储备连续十个月增加，央行手里金光闪闪。黄金不产利息，也不欠谁钱，关键时刻能当硬 通货。把部分美元资产换成黄金，等于把鸡蛋从一只摇摇晃晃的篮子里拿出来，放进保险箱。对外，中国仍留足美元流动 性，保证贸易结算；对内，黄金堆高，给人民币汇率加了一道防波堤。 更深一层看，美债的"游戏规则"也在变。美国政府发债先拍卖，没人要的部分才由美联储"兜底"。过去两年，高息把民间 买家吓退，结果美联储被迫大量"兜底"，等于左手欠条右手印钞。马斯克最近直接给白宫"发微信"：若不解决赤字，美国 就要破产。他算过一笔账，美债年利息已超五角大楼全年预算，再这么滚下去，政府收入光付利息都不够。 美国财政部刚公布的11月国际资本流动报告（TIC）显示，海外投资者手里的美债总额又创新高，一口气增加1128亿美元， 达到9.36万亿美元。挪威、加 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the relationship between the changes in the dollar's international reserve status and the strength of the dollar index is unstable, and the impact of de-dollarization on the dollar exchange rate should not be overestimated [1][13][24] - In 2025, the ICE dollar index fell by 9.4%, marking the largest annual decline in eight years, while the global dollar foreign exchange reserve share dropped to 56.92%, the lowest since 1999 [1][12] - The decline in dollar reserves is accompanied by a rise in gold reserves, which increased by 11.93 percentage points since the end of 2021, indicating a shift towards physical reserve assets [9][10] Group 2 - Since 2008, the dollar index has not shown significant weakness, with a cumulative increase of 20.5% by 2025, despite a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves [2][12] - The dollar's share in global international payments increased to 48.15% in 2025, reflecting its continued dominance in international transactions [17] - Private sector interest in dollar assets remains strong, with a net inflow of international capital into the U.S. of $1.13 trillion in the first three quarters of 2025, despite a net outflow of official foreign capital [21][24]

最近，特朗普十分着急，只因到了2026年之后， 美国的财政赤字肉眼可见的在扩大。 与此同时， 中国停止了对美国国债的购买，持有巨量的外汇储备的中国央行，这个操作可以说对美国的财政系统形成了致命的伤害。 在有限的时间之内， 特朗普在美国内外必须寻找新的大债主，而根据美国财政部刚刚公布的国际资本流动报告，截止到2025年11月份有哪些国家增持美国 国债？ 局势逆转与黄金博弈 时间来到2026年， 金融界的风向标正在发生剧烈偏转。 2025年11月的数据犹如一颗深水炸弹，当日本、英国等六国还在疯狂扫货，试图为美国财政"输血"时， 中国却已连续第9个月按下了卖出键。 曾经的"头号债主"如今持有量已滑落至6826亿美元，排位也从榜首跌至第三。 恰恰相反，当别人的真金白银流向华尔街时， 中国手中的7415万盎司黄金，正在无声地宣示着另一种战略抉择。 前言 盟友的"暴力输血" 翻阅 美国财政部1月15日披露的国际资本流动报告，数据显得格外刺眼。 日本单月加仓26亿美元，总持仓量攀升至1.2万亿美元，英国更是"杀红了眼"，一口气吞下106亿美元美债， 以8885亿美元的规模反超中国，坐上了"第二债 主"的交椅。 这哪里是投资 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index has strengthened recently, reaching a two-week high, driven by multiple favorable factors and market focus on its impact on key psychological levels [1] - The rebound of the dollar is primarily attributed to the resonance of economic data and risk aversion, with recent inflation data meeting expectations and core inflation remaining stable, reducing market bets on aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions between the US and Iran, have heightened the dollar's safe-haven appeal, with rising oil prices driving risk-averse capital back to the dollar [1] Group 2 - There is a growing divergence in market views on the medium to long-term trajectory of the dollar, focusing on the Federal Reserve's policy path and debates over central bank independence [2] - The internal "hawk-dove" debate within the Federal Reserve has intensified, leading to significant disagreements on rate cuts, which contributes to ongoing policy uncertainty affecting the dollar's performance [2] - Institutions generally expect the dollar to maintain a "short-term strong, medium to long-term weak" pattern, with key signals including the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the degree of global central bank policy divergence [2]

一场风暴正在华盛顿悄悄酝酿，而且不是那种雷声大雨点小的政治口水仗，而是真正能掀翻全球金融棋盘的硬碰硬对决。 白宫和美联储之间那层薄薄的窗户纸，终于被特朗普政府撕开了——表面看，是因为美联储总部大楼翻修花了太多钱；实际上呢？这根本就是一场关于"谁 说了算"的权力摊牌。 你可能会问：不就是盖个楼超了点预算吗，至于闹到刑事调查的地步？ 嘿，别天真了。 这事要是真那么简单，鲍威尔也不会在2026年1月直接对着镜头说："这都是借口！" 他这句话一出口，等于把白宫藏在西装口袋里的底牌全抖了出来。 美国司法部突然对美联储主席启动刑事调查，理由是大楼装修超标，可全世界都看得明白：真正让特朗普坐不住的，是美联储不肯按他的节奏降息。 要知道，美联储的独立性可不是写在宪法里的装饰品，而是过去几十年美元霸权最核心的信用支柱之一。 它之所以能成为全球资产定价的锚，靠的就是"不听总统指挥"这个硬气劲儿。 现在好了，特朗普政府直接动用联邦检察官办公室发大陪审团传票，把专业审计问题硬生生变成政治追责，这不是试探，这是明抢。 更讽刺的是，就在鲍威尔发表视频声明的同一天，特朗普接受采访时却轻描淡写地说自己对调查"一无所知"，转头又补了一句："鲍 ...