导语："投资大家谈"是点拾投资的公益内容栏目，希望通过每周日不定期的推送，让更多人看到 基金经理对投资和市场的思考。"投资大家谈"栏目内容以公益类的分享为主，不带有基金产品的 代码和信息，也必须来自基金经理的内容创作。 也欢迎大家给我们投稿： azhu830@yeah.net！ 近期海外AI泡沫的讨论渐起，美股、港股和A股的科技板块都受到一定影响。映射到A股市场，11 月主要指数冲高回落，科技成长板块内部轮动加快，价值风格相对占优。从美股表现看，AI板块 波动加剧但龙头分化显著，更似AI结构切换而非走势终结。短期市场调整未改变AI产业长期成长 逻辑，叠加美元指数下行周期，成长风格或延续主线，AI仍有望是核心关注方向。 长城基金坚定投资未来，锚定科技产业主航道持续深耕，打造"全景视野之广、多元策略之活、团 队协作之效"动态能力体系，聚焦新能源、新材料、半导体、生物技术、人工智能、国防军工、医 药医疗等细分领域，以深度基本面研究为基石，耐心捕捉"科技+"领域的长期投资价值。 陈良栋：关注AI+终端应用机会 目前市场处于主线不明朗阶段，大盘下跌空间或相对有限，但是对之前涨幅过大的板块需要谨 慎，后续可关注AI+终端 ...

本周三大指数，上证指数涨0.37%，深证成指涨1.26%，创业板指涨1.86%。后市将如何发展？看看机构 怎么说。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中信证券：当前市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态 当前的市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态，债市的调整导致股债平衡型策略在当下遭遇一 定挑战，对控制持仓波动率可能有更高的要求，也间接影响到股票配置策略。未来人民币的潜在升值压 力可能会带来超预期的货币宽松，这可能是超预期变化的来源并打破震荡格局，在此之前，配置上延续 资源/传统制造业定价权的重估和企业出海两个方向。 光大证券：国内外利好共振 市场有所回暖 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大 的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。不过短 期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势 为主。 华金证券：春季行情开启了吗？ 当前来看，明年春季行情可能于今年12 月中下旬提前开启。（1）短期政策和外部事件可能偏积极。一 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that insurance companies have lowered risk factors for long-term holdings in the CSI 300, the China Securities Low Volatility 100, and the STAR Market, with state-owned insurance companies increasing their positions first, followed by the risk factor adjustments. This adjustment provides an additional incentive for other insurance companies to increase equity allocations, with a potential increase in equity investment space amounting to hundreds of billions under unchanged solvency ratios [4][5]. - The report highlights that the spring market's economic and industrial catalysts are not yet clear, and the supply-demand logic of funds may become the main contradiction. Expectations for the insurance "opening red" trading are rising, and high-dividend market trends may begin to emerge before early 2026 [4][5]. - The report suggests that the risk factor adjustments may encourage long-term capital to enter the market, particularly benefiting state-owned insurance companies that have already allocated a high proportion of new premiums to the market. The equity investment risk factor reduction is seen as a delayed policy optimization [5]. Group 2 - The report maintains that the spring market may be a small-scale market, with expectations of a rebound within a high-level oscillation for the overall market. For the oversold technology sector, it may transition into a phase of oscillation after sufficient adjustment [6]. - The mid-term judgment indicates a "two-stage bull market," with the technology structural bull market in 2025 at a high level, and subsequent adjustments may occur. A comprehensive bull market is expected in the second half of 2026 [6]. - The report anticipates that the first half of 2026 will see a "Bull Market 1.0" characterized by oscillation and a focus on cyclical and value styles, while the second half will transition to a "Bull Market 2.0" where technology and advanced manufacturing will dominate [8]. Group 3 - The report identifies potential triggers for the spring market, including the policy layout period starting in mid-December and the "two sessions" in 2026, which may activate policy and industrial themes [6]. - The report emphasizes that the spring market may serve as a foundation for cyclical assets, with a focus on basic chemicals and industrial technology as potential alpha sources. The insurance "opening red" may also highlight high-dividend opportunities [8]. - The report notes that the overall adjustment in technology may lead to a widespread rebound, with particular attention on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense, as well as opportunities in AI computing, storage, energy storage, and robotics [8].

Group 1 - Multiple public equity funds have announced the suspension of large subscriptions as the year-end approaches, including several high-performing funds that ranked well over the past year [1][2][3] - The suspension of large subscriptions is seen as a measure to prevent fund sizes from exceeding optimal investment strategies and market capacity, reflecting a shift from pursuing scale to focusing on high-quality development [4][5] - Notable funds that have implemented subscription limits include 中欧红利优享, 中欧价值回报, and 安信远见成长, with recent one-year net value increases of 44.47%, 41.62%, and 39.09% respectively [3][4] Group 2 - The market remains volatile, and the actions of fund companies to limit subscriptions indicate a strategy to manage growth and protect fund performance [4] - Investment firms are preparing for a "cross-year market" with expectations of a rebound in industry allocations and a focus on emerging technologies and undervalued sectors [5][6] - December is anticipated to be a period of resonance among policies, liquidity, and fundamentals, with a focus on growth sectors such as AI and electric vehicles, as well as potential policy-driven opportunities in hospitality and logistics [5][6]

布局未来 年末基金经理更替"忙" "公募基金实行年度考核制，年末是业绩评估关键节点，表现不佳的基金经理面临着被替换风险。为提 升排名，部分基金公司可能主动更换基金经理，期望新基金经理通过调整策略来改善业绩。"格上基金 研究员毕梦姌对上海证券报记者分析称。 流动加速 年末基金经理频繁变更 今年以来股债市场的巨大变化，令产品业绩差距显著增大。数据显示，近一年以来，截至12月2日，权 益类基金的首尾差距高达226个百分点。在这样的差距下，11月以来离任的61位基金经理中，不少因业 绩欠佳"下课"。 ◎记者 朱妍 比如11月卸任所管基金的蒋佳良，天天基金网数据显示，此前其管理基金的任职回报从最差亏损逾 40%，到最优盈利近170%不等，不少产品的任职回报为负，且部分产品今年以来的相对业绩排名靠 后。 2025年接近尾声，公募行业迎来基金经理更替的高峰期。数据显示，11月以来，基金经理变更超过130 人，远超去年同期水平，这一现象的背后既与年末业绩考核、人才团队优化相关，也体现出基金公司为 抢占来年市场先机、适配公募改革导向做出的战略调整。 也有一些绩优的基金经理是"另谋高就"。如富国基金前知名QDII基金经理宁君，1 ...

基于实操视角复盘春季行情 ——策略专题研究 分析师：邓宇林、包承超 研究助理：龚嫣然 报告日期：2025年12月3日 01 春季行情的阶段特征分析 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 02 春季行情中市场风格的表现对比 03 春季行情中市场应对思路推演 02 摘要 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 ➢ 本篇报告从实操视角出发，复盘历年春季行情规律。重点讨论：1）春季行情的阶段特征分析；2）春季行情中市场风格 的表现对比；3）春季行情中市场应对思路推演。 ➢ 1、春季行情的阶段特征分析——绝对视角，春季行情多启动于12月下旬至1月中旬，相对视角，启动时点中位数为节前 11个交易日。历年春季行情走势可以归为三类情景——①对称V型；②大级别趋势上涨；③小级别趋势上涨。若春躁启 动时点相对较早，则大概率是趋势行情，进一步情景判断可观察国庆以来跌幅。若启动时点相对较晚，则大概率是对称V 型，破前高或可谨慎。 ➢ 2、春季行情中市场风格的表现对比——小盘成长在春躁中占优，大盘价值在春躁前性价比高。 ➢ 3、春季行情中市场应对思路推演——春节前十个交易日配置，胜率赔率均高，且错过春季行情概率小。 ...

申万宏源策略 【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】春季行情的幅度和定位 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is entering a phase of emotional recovery, with expectations for a rebound in financing buy-in amounts and transaction ratios as risk factors begin to stabilize [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since the market correction in October, both financing buy-in amounts and transaction ratios have significantly declined, but there has been a recent uptick in two-way financing activity as market risk appetite stabilizes [1][4]. - The overall market is expected to enter a phase of emotional recovery, with financing buy-in amounts and transaction ratios likely to gradually rebound [1][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - It is considered an appropriate time to position for the spring market, with emerging technology expected to regain prominence, alongside a focus on undervalued consumer stocks and brokerage firms [2][5]. - The technology growth sector is anticipated to benefit from improved global competitiveness, opening new growth opportunities for Chinese companies, particularly in sub-sectors like internet, semiconductors, media, power equipment, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][5]. - The consumer sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with valuations and holdings at historical low levels, suggesting potential opportunities in consumer goods, hotels, airlines, and retail [2][5]. - The non-ferrous metals sector may see significant boosts from easing expectations, offering a favorable valuation compared to other popular sectors, thus presenting attractive investment opportunities [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming spring market in 2026 is expected to be positively influenced by various factors including policy, fundamentals, and liquidity, with a likelihood of an earlier onset due to the late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival and the deepening "learning effect" in the market [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Spring market is a notable calendar effect in A-shares, typically occurring annually, with variations in timing and magnitude. The 2026 spring market may be advanced due to the late Spring Festival and increased market awareness leading to a "rush" for early positioning [2]. - The concentration of credit and fiscal measures at the beginning of the year is anticipated to boost market confidence, with historical patterns showing that the spring market often starts in January or February [2]. Historical Context - The spring market of early 2025 saw a rebound after a quick drop in early January, with major indices maintaining an upward trend for over two months. Historical analysis indicates that spring markets rarely begin in December of the previous year, providing opportunities for investors to position themselves in December for the following spring [3]. Sector Focus - The AI sector remains a key focus, with recommendations for balanced allocation between growth and cyclical sectors. Specific attention is drawn to military, AI applications, chemicals, and resource products [4]. - Analysts suggest focusing on high-value segments within growth and cyclical styles, including aerospace equipment and AI-related energy storage, while also considering financials and consumer goods as long-term holdings [4]. Investment Opportunities - In the AI sector, there are several subfields currently underperforming due to limited short-term catalysts. However, potential industry events could lead to significant returns, making downstream AI applications a strategic investment opportunity [5]. - Specific areas of interest include AI in innovative pharmaceuticals, military applications, AIGC, media gaming, humanoid robotics, and autonomous driving, which are viewed as promising investment avenues [5].

Group 1 - The upcoming spring market in 2026 is expected to be positively influenced by policy, fundamentals, and liquidity, with a likelihood of an earlier onset due to the late timing of the Chinese New Year and deepening market "learning effects" [1][2] - Analysts suggest a balanced allocation between growth and cyclical sectors, with particular attention on military industry, AI applications, chemicals, and resource products [1][3] Group 2 - The spring market typically starts in January or February, driven by concentrated credit and fiscal measures, alongside rising policy expectations before the National People's Congress in March [2] - The current liquidity remains accommodative, and the fundamentals are in a phase of mild recovery, which supports the potential spring market [2][3] Group 3 - The 2025 spring market saw a strong rebound in A-shares, particularly in technology sectors driven by AI, which is expected to remain a key focus in the upcoming market [3][4] - Analysts recommend focusing on high-value segments within growth and cyclical styles, including aerospace equipment, AI-related energy storage, and chemical products [3][4] Group 4 - The technology sector is anticipated to maintain a long-term advantage, with specific interest in military, media gaming, AI applications, and core AI hardware [4] - Investment opportunities in AI-related fields are highlighted, particularly in AI applications combined with innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and autonomous driving sectors [4]