Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing measures to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, including a 300 billion MLF operation and multiple reverse repos, indicating a moderately accommodative monetary policy to stabilize market expectations and support financing needs [1][2]. Group 1 - The PBOC will conduct a 300 billion MLF operation with a one-year term on June 25, 2025, marking a net injection of 118 billion MLF in June, the fourth consecutive month of increased liquidity [1]. - In June, the PBOC executed two reverse repo operations, injecting a total of 2 trillion yuan, which is the first time such operations were announced twice in one month [1]. - The combination of MLF and reverse repos aims to ensure sufficient liquidity at the end of the half-year period, addressing the impact of government bond issuance on liquidity [1][2]. Group 2 - The recent liquidity conditions are influenced by large-scale government bond issuances and a peak in interbank certificates of deposit maturities, necessitating a stable liquidity environment [2]. - The PBOC's liquidity management tools are well-stocked and diversified, with a clear focus on providing one-year liquidity through MLF, while also utilizing various short- and medium-term tools [2]. - Anticipation of liquidity disturbances in July due to tax payments and government bond issuance suggests that the PBOC will continue to use MLF and reverse repos to meet liquidity demands and signal stability [3].

流动性日报 | 2025-06-25 市场流动性概况 2025-06-24，股指板块成交5446.28亿元，较上一交易日变动+21.41%；持仓金额9886.31亿元，较上一交易日变动 +4.59%；成交持仓比为55.37%。 国债板块成交2687.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.28%；持仓金额8883.85亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.84%；成交持 仓比为30.82%。 基本金属板块成交2341.50亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.24%；持仓金额3872.83亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.50%； 成交持仓比为89.40%。 贵金属板块成交4964.43亿元，较上一交易日变动+39.13%；持仓金额4394.91亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.78%；成 交持仓比为100.64%。 能源化工板块成交9299.76亿元，较上一交易日变动+20.67%；持仓金额4032.77亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.63%； 成交持仓比为155.41%。 农产品板块成交3211.92亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.65%；持仓金额5637.95亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.72%；成交 持仓比为49.13%。 黑色建材板块成交2185 ...

展望下半年，中信证券指出，考虑到货币政策中性偏宽松的基调，预计流动性不会大幅收紧，但在政府 债缴款和税期等时点，资金利率可能会有较大的波动。操作上可以采取长短端兼顾的"哑铃策略"，适度 博弈央行的宽松动作。 6月以来，人民银行分别在6月6日和6月16日开展共计14000亿元买断式逆回购操作，对冲当月到期的 12000亿元买断式逆回购，叠加本轮MLF操作，中期流动性净投放总额达到3180亿元。 东方金诚表示，短期来看，央行或将主要通过逆回购操作削峰平谷、熨平波动。长期来看，央行还可能 恢复公开市场国债买卖，结合降准向银行体系投放长期流动性。预计下半年央行还会综合运用MLF、 买断式逆回购及国库现金定存等工具，保持中期流动性处于净投放状态。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，在5月降准释放长期流动性10000亿元的同时，近月中期流动性持续 处于净投放状态，主要有两个原因，一是在政府债券持续大规模发行、近月银行同业存单到期规模处于 高峰阶段，保持银行体系流动性持续处于充裕状态，控制资金面波动，稳定市场预期；二是释放数量型 货币政策工具持续加力的政策信号，推动存量社融和M2增速稳中有升，更好满足企业和居民的融资需 求， ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a significant liquidity injection through a 300 billion MLF operation, indicating a supportive stance towards the market while avoiding excessive monetary easing [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will conduct a 300 billion MLF operation with a one-year term, marking the fourth consecutive month of excess MLF renewals since March [1]. - The net injection for June has reached 318 billion, reflecting the central bank's intention to provide liquidity support during a traditionally tight period [1]. - The MLF net injection scale is decreasing, suggesting a cautious approach by the PBOC to avoid overly loose monetary conditions while allowing for potential future bond purchases [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - The recent liquidity measures are expected to support the bond market, alleviating short-term pressures from government bond issuances and maturing interbank certificates [2]. - The bond market has shown a "bull steepening" trend, with short-term rates declining more rapidly due to increased purchases of short-term government bonds by major banks [2]. - The overall positive trend in the bond market is expected to continue, driven by weak economic fundamentals, reinforced policy easing expectations, and sustained liquidity support [2].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 |【C】国贸易所得 到期1563亿元、2035亿元、1612亿元。央行行长潘功胜表示,一年来, 央行坚持支持性的货币政策立场,从数量、价格、结构等方面,出台了 多项货币政策措施，有效支持了经济持续回升向好和金融市场的稳定。 同时,央行完善货币政策框架,优化货币政策中间变量,培育政策利 率,提升货币政策传导效率,丰富货币政策工具箱,做好政策沟通和预 期引导。货币政策框架的转型是一个渐进、持续的过程，未来央行还将 不断地做好评估和完善。 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | | | 动(%) | | 沪深300 | 3904 | 1.20 | IF当月 | 3872 | 1.3 | | 上证50 | 2716 | 1.16 | IH当月 | 2684 | 1.1 | | 中证500 | 5766 | 1.62 | IC当月 | 5726 | 1.8 | | 中证1000 | ୧192 | 1.92 | IM当月 | 6134 ...

Group 1 - The central bank announced a 300 billion MLF operation to maintain liquidity, with a net injection of 118 billion due to the maturity of 182 billion MLF in June [1] - June is a traditional month for credit issuance, with significant seasonal increases in bank reserve requirements impacting liquidity [2] - The central bank's proactive measures, including reverse repos and MLF operations, aim to stabilize market expectations and support credit issuance [3] Group 2 - The upcoming tax month in July and increased government bond issuance will create significant liquidity pressure, potentially reaching 1 trillion [4] - The central bank is expected to continue using various liquidity management tools, including reverse repos and MLF, to meet liquidity needs and signal stability [4] - The anticipated peak in government bond supply in August and September will increase pressure on banks, necessitating ongoing support from the central bank [4]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran may serve as a significant turning point, leading to a reduction in global market risk aversion and a subsequent rise in asset prices, particularly in global stock markets while oil and gold prices decline [1][2]. Direct Impact - The geopolitical risk premium in oil prices has been eliminated, resulting in a decrease in international oil prices due to reduced fears of supply disruptions from escalating conflicts in the Middle East [2]. - As risk aversion diminishes, funds are flowing back from safe-haven assets like gold into higher-growth risk assets such as global equities, indicating a lower level of market uncertainty [2]. Transmission Effects - The easing of tensions in the Middle East may trigger a transmission chain in the global macroeconomic landscape [3]. - The transmission chain can be summarized as follows: 1. Easing Middle East tensions → Oil price decline [4] 2. Oil price decline → Reduced inflationary pressures in the U.S., as oil prices significantly influence U.S. inflation metrics [5]. 3. Reduced inflation → Increased likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as persistent inflation has been a barrier to rate cuts [6]. 4. Enhanced rate cut expectations → Improved global liquidity, particularly benefiting emerging markets, with Hong Kong stocks potentially attracting more international capital due to their low valuation [6]. Market Opportunities - In light of improved liquidity and rising risk appetite, Hong Kong stocks are expected to enter a significant "allocation window" [6]. - The technology sector in Hong Kong, which includes leading companies in internet, consumer electronics, and biotechnology, is likely to benefit from the anticipated global liquidity improvement and represents higher growth potential [6][8]. - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has shown strong growth, with a total return of 227% since the end of 2014, indicating its potential as a tool for capturing structural opportunities in the Hong Kong technology sector [8].

Market Overview - The US stock market has shown positive performance recently, with all three major indices rising over 1%, and the Dow Jones reaching its highest level since early March [3] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 3.31%, marking its largest single-day gain since May 13, driven by expectations of liquidity easing following signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [3] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3400-point level on June 24, with a trading volume of 1.41 trillion yuan, indicating a positive market signal [3] - Technical indicators such as RSI rising above 50, narrowing MACD bars, and KDJ golden cross suggest improving market sentiment [3] - However, significant selling pressure exists around the 3400-point mark, with historical failures to break through due to insufficient volume and trapped positions [3] Capital Flow - Northbound capital recorded a net sell of 6.304 billion yuan on June 24, with significant sell-offs in electronics, utilities, and home appliances, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage saw net inflows [4] - Main capital flows indicate net inflows in banking, industrial metals, and real estate development, while sectors like semiconductors and computer applications experienced net outflows, reflecting a shift in capital between high and low-performing sectors [4] Policy Support - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 406.5 billion yuan on June 24, releasing liquidity into the market [4] - A joint initiative from six departments introduced a 500 billion yuan loan program to support service consumption and the elderly care industry, which is expected to benefit related sectors in the long term [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the role of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in supporting technological innovation, potentially boosting confidence in the tech sector [4] Geopolitical Context - High-level trade talks between China and the US have resumed, which may help ease trade tensions [4] - The ceasefire agreement in the Middle East is in effect, but ongoing conflicts warrant attention to geopolitical risks that could impact the market [4] Investment Strategy - A-shares are expected to continue an upward trend on June 25, but attention is needed around the 3400-point resistance level [5] - Long-term investors are advised to focus on sectors supported by policy, such as consumption, technology, and elderly care, which have strong growth potential [5] - Short-term investors should monitor volume changes, with a sustained increase to 1.5 trillion yuan or more indicating potential for further market breakthroughs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank may adopt measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts to provide liquidity support to the market, especially considering the potential acceleration of government bond issuance in the third quarter [1] Group 1 - Citic Securities' chief economist Mingming indicates that financial institutions, particularly banks, have a certain demand for liquidity support [1] - The supportive monetary policy stance suggests that the central bank could utilize tools like open market operations or relending in addition to reserve requirement ratio cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing measures to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, including a 300 billion MLF operation and a net injection of 1180 billion due to maturing MLFs [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will conduct a 300 billion MLF operation on June 25, 2025, with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 1180 billion after 1820 billion MLF matures in June [1]. - In June, the PBOC has increased mid-term liquidity injections, conducting a total of 14,000 billion reverse repos on June 6 and June 16 [2]. - The total net injection of mid-term liquidity in June has exceeded 3000 billion, indicating a proactive approach to maintaining liquidity [2]. Group 2: Market Stability and Expectations - Maintaining ample liquidity helps prevent abnormal fluctuations in the funding environment and stabilizes market expectations, which is crucial given the large-scale issuance of government bonds and the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [2]. - The PBOC's actions signal a continued commitment to using quantitative monetary policy tools to meet the financing needs of enterprises and households [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that the PBOC will continue to exceed the renewal of maturing MLFs and utilize various monetary policy tools to keep liquidity abundant in the second half of the year [4]. - There is a possibility of the PBOC adopting measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts to provide liquidity support, especially with the expected acceleration of government bond issuance in the third quarter [4]. - Discussions are ongoing regarding the potential resumption of government bond purchases by the PBOC, which is seen as a key tool for liquidity injection and reducing the cost of liabilities in the banking and financial system [4][5].