法国贸易部长：欧洲本可以在与特朗普的贸易谈判中采取更强硬的立场。 ...

Group 1 - The current gold price is experiencing fluctuations, with a recent drop to around 3320 before rebounding, indicating a potential resistance at 3345-47 and 3362 levels [1][3] - COMEX gold has seen a decline for three consecutive days, closing at 3338.5 USD/oz, reflecting a drop of 1.04% [3] - The recent EU-US trade negotiations resulted in an agreement favoring the US, highlighting the EU's weakened position in global economic negotiations [3] Group 2 - The gold market is currently under bearish pressure, with prices trading below key moving averages, but there is potential for a rebound if support levels are tested [4] - Last week's gold market was influenced by fundamental factors, with a high of 3439.2 and a low of 3324.6, closing at 3336.5, forming a long upper shadow candlestick pattern [4] - Current support levels for gold are identified at 3324 or 3304 USD, while resistance levels are at 3340 or 3357 USD [5]

据央视新闻，美日此前就关税问题达成一致。根据协议内容，美国将对包括汽车在内的日本商品统一征 收15%关税，低于此前特朗普威胁的25%税率。作为交换，日本承诺设立规模高达5500亿美元的基金用 于对美直接投资，投资方向将由美方主导。 美国商务部长卢特尼克透露称，该基金的资金将包括"股权、贷款和贷款担保"，投资方向将由美方主 导，美国将获得该投资90%的利润。协议明确，这些资金将投向美国战略工业基础的复兴，包括能源基 础设施和生产、半导体制造和研发、关键矿产开采加工、医药和医疗产品生产，以及商业和国防造船等 领域。 但日方却有不同解读。 日本政府首席谈判代表赤泽良圣周六在接受采访时澄清，在日美最新达成的5500亿美元基金中，真正的 投资仅占1%-2%，其余资金将以贷款形式提供。在投资收益分配上，美日将按照90:10的比例分成，而 非日本最初提议的50:50比例。 赤泽良圣强调，这并非将5500亿美元现金直接输送至美国，而是通过不同金融工具的组合实现。对于占 据基金主体的贷款部分，日本将收取利息。在贷款担保方面，如果没有违约发生，日本仅收取担保费 用。 5500亿美元基金中仅1%-2%为投资？美欧之后，美日也就贸易 ...

当全球目光聚焦于7月27日至30日在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行的第三轮中美经贸会谈时，一个更深的悬念浮 出水面：特朗普能否如愿踏上9月的访华之旅？ 谈判桌上剑拔弩张的气氛背后，是一组让美方如坐针毡的数据：2025年6月，中国对美国原油采购量戏 剧性归零，这是三年来破天荒的第一次；煤炭进口额更从去年同期的9000万美元断崖式跌至248美元。 美国财政部长贝森特7月21日接受采访时抛出一颗震撼弹——他公然宣称要将中国采购俄罗斯和伊朗石 油的议题塞进即将展开的中美贸易谈判议程。 这番赤裸裸的威胁恰似向火药桶投入火星，瞬间点燃了国际舆论场。 美国能源企业在华市场份额的蒸发速度，远超华盛顿的预料。 美财长贝森特（资料图） 贝森特的威胁直指美国精心构筑的石油美元霸权体系。他警告将对购买俄油的国家征收100%"二级关 税"，同时向欧洲施压要求协同行动。 这种以金融霸权为武器的策略，在俄乌冲突期间曾让欧洲国家被迫吞下高价购买美国能源的苦果。 但中国市场的反应给了美国当头一棒。当美国挥舞关税大棒，中国转身拥抱俄罗斯与伊朗的能源供应。 这种转向不仅是商业选择，更是对美国单边制裁的无声抗议。 复旦大学辛强教授点明关键："北京定会坚持贸易谈 ...

长江期货贵金属周报 贸易谈判取得进展，价格承压回调 2025/7/28 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 美国与多国贸易谈判结果落地，加征关税幅度基本低于 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2024/01/02 2024/02/02 2024/03/02 2024/04/02 2024/05/02 2024/06/02 2024/07/02 2024/08/02 2024/09/02 2024/10/02 2024/11/02 2024/12/02 2025/01/02 2025/02/02 2025/03/02 2025/04/02 2025/05/02 2025/06/02 2025/07/02 市场预期。市场 ...

Group 1 - The trade agreement between the US and EU has been finalized, potentially avoiding a global economic downturn due to a trade war [1][3] - The agreement sets a 15% tariff on most EU exports, including automobiles, but there are discrepancies in statements from both sides regarding the inclusion of pharmaceuticals and metals [3][4] - The EU has reportedly agreed to invest significantly in the US, which may have influenced the terms of the agreement, particularly concerning pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [3] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the specifics of the tariff implementation may lead to volatility in related sectors, such as metal trading and pharmaceutical exports, as companies await final details [3][4] - The overall direction of the agreement is seen as positive for global supply chains, despite the need to address lingering details and disputes [3][4] - Continuous monitoring of subsequent developments in the trade agreement is essential for long-term investment strategies [4]

从经济基本面来看，欧元区近期的数据已显露出企稳迹象。制造业 PMI 的边际改善、服务业的持续扩 张以及劳动力市场的相对稳定，共同构成了经济韧性的现实基础。在连续八次降息后，货币政策对经济 的刺激效果逐渐显现，此时暂停降息既是对前期政策效果的观察，也是避免过度宽松引发副作用的理性 选择。 不过，市场对于贸易谈判的乐观预期仍存在不确定性。15% 的关税水平虽较全面贸易战的情景更为温 和，但相较于此前的贸易条件仍属加税，长期来看仍会对部分行业造成压力。因此，欧洲央行的 "观 就在欧洲央行宣布政策的次日，高盛与摩根大通的研究报告相继出炉。高盛明确表示，不再预计欧洲央 行会在今年内实施降息；摩根大通则将此前预测的 9 月降息时间点推迟至 10 月。两家机构的调整方向 高度一致，反映出金融市场对欧元区货币政策宽松预期的显著降温。 欧洲央行行长拉加德在周四的新闻发布会上的表态，成为机构调整预期的重要参考。"我们正处于这种 观望等待的状况，" 她明确指出，同时补充说明当前经济处于 "良好的位置"。这一表述打破了市场此前 对持续宽松的惯性预期，凸显出欧洲央行对经济韧性的认可。 高盛的分析师在报告中解读道，拉加德的评论传递出清晰 ...

据韩联社：韩国在贸易谈判中向美国提出了数十亿美元的造船项目。 ...

Group 1 - The gold market experienced significant volatility this week, with prices ultimately closing lower after failing to stabilize above $3,400 per ounce following a bullish breakout. This reflects recent hesitation among gold bulls [1] - In the first two trading days of the week, spot gold prices surged by 2.4%, but the subsequent three days saw a cumulative decline of nearly 3%. This decline was primarily driven by positive developments in Trump’s trade negotiations, which boosted market risk appetite and diminished gold's safe-haven demand [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to next week, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its monetary policy decision after the July 29-30 meeting. The market perceives a negligible chance of a rate cut in July, with a 40% likelihood of maintaining rates in September, an increase from about 10% a month ago [3] - If Powell opens the door for a September rate cut citing reduced uncertainty from recent trade agreements, U.S. Treasury yields may drop, potentially allowing gold prices to rise. Conversely, if he avoids committing to a rate cut due to rising inflation data, gold prices may decline [3] Group 3 - The outlook for gold next week appears bearish, with prices unexpectedly continuing to decline on Friday, touching the previously mentioned 4-hour trend line at $3,335 before weakening further. The current trend is viewed as bearish without any signs of rebound [5] - The hourly chart shows a clear rotation between bullish and bearish trends, with the first three days exhibiting an upward trend channel, followed by a direct retraction that established a new downward channel. The $3,350 level is identified as a key point for continued bearish sentiment next week [6] Group 4 - A trading strategy suggests shorting near $3,350, with a stop-loss at $3,360 and a target of $3,325, with further downside potential to $3,310 if the price breaks below these levels [8]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose for five consecutive days, increasing by 1.46% during the week ending July 25, 2025[10] - The Nikkei 225 index surged by 4.1% due to trade agreement progress between the US and Japan[10] - The Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices increased by 1.26% and 1.02%, respectively, during the same period[10] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims fell to 217,000, marking a decline for the sixth consecutive week, against an expected 226,000[4] - The probability of a US recession by 2025 is estimated at 17%, down from 18% the previous week[39] - The market anticipates a 64.5% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July or September, up from 52.9% a week prior[28] Commodity Prices - Gold and silver prices decreased by 0.61% and 0.55%, respectively, while WTI crude oil fell by 3.31%[11] - The market expects an increase in Venezuelan oil exports following the easing of sanctions, contributing to the decline in oil prices[10] Trade Agreements - The US reached a trade agreement with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff and a $550 billion investment from Japan[33] - The Philippines will impose a 19% tariff on US goods while opening its market to zero tariffs for US products[33] - Ongoing trade negotiations with the EU could lead to a counter-tariff on $93 billion worth of US goods if talks fail[33]