Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices all declined, with the S&P 500 dropping over 0.2%, the Dow Jones falling approximately 200 points with a decline exceeding 0.4%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.3% [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields expanded their decline, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching a new low since July 11 [1] Currency Exchange - The South Korean won maintained its upward trend against the U.S. dollar, rebounding from a daily low of 1394.87 won to a daily high of 1386.99 won [1] ETFs - Korean ETFs listed in the U.S. sustained a gain of over 1.2% [1] Trade Negotiations - U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo urged South Korea to present the best trade proposals during trade negotiations [1]

作为8月1日截止日期前的临时措施，印度正准备应对美国可能征收的20%-25%关税，同时计划在美国代 表团8月中旬访问时重启更广泛的贸易谈判。 周二，据媒体援引两名印度政府消息人士透露，印度决定在华盛顿8月1日截止日期前暂缓新的贸易让 步，转而寻求通过全面双边协议解决贸易分歧。一名印度官员表示，目标是在9月或10月前敲定全面双 边协议。 考虑到已经进行的五轮贸易谈判，我们认为这将是临时措施。协议很快就会达成。 印度贸易部长Piyush Goyal上周表示，印度在美国贸易谈判中取得了"极好的"进展。印度官员表示，新 德里已提出对广泛商品削减关税，并正在努力缓解非关税壁垒。 农业和乳制品成为谈判障碍 尽管谈判取得进展，农业和乳制品仍是"禁区"。印度不愿意允许转基因大豆或玉米进口，也不愿开放其 乳制品行业。 据见闻文章援引环球时报此前报道，印度此前一直抵制为美国农产品提供更大市场准入，以保护构成重 要选民群体的本国农民。 特朗普周一表示，大多数未谈判独立贸易协议的合作伙伴很快将面临15%-20%的出口关税，远高于他4 月征收的10%广泛关税。美国贸易代表Jamieson Greer表示，与印度的谈判需要更多磋商，因为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways [1] - Gold: Sideways, with a bullish pattern for silver [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): Sideways [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum and Alumina): Sideways for alumina, cautious and bearish short - term, long - term bullish for aluminum [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): Sideways [4] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [6] - Silicon Energy: Sideways [6] - Steel and Ore (Threaded Steel): Bullish pattern [6] - Steel and Ore (Hot - Rolled Coil): Bullish pattern [6] - Steel and Ore (Iron Ore): Sideways pattern [7] - Coking Coal and Coke (Coking Coal): Sideways [7] - Coking Coal and Coke (Coke): Sideways [7] - Soda Ash/Glass (Soda Ash): Sideways pattern [7] - Soda Ash/Glass (Float Glass): Sideways pattern [7] - Crude Oil: Sideways [9] - Methanol: Bullish [9] - Polyolefins: Sideways [9] - Cotton: Sideways and bullish [9] - Rubber: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall upward trend of the stock index is clear, and there are opportunities to go long on dips; the bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market, with reduced upward pressure but high uncertainty [1] - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, and silver has strong support. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions and go long on silver [4] - The copper market is affected by the US copper tariff policy, with high uncertainty and a sideways pattern [4] - Alumina is affected by sentiment in the short - term, with a medium - term surplus pattern; aluminum has clear supply constraints and a relatively stable long - term bullish strategy [4] - Nickel lacks directional drivers and is in a sideways pattern, and the short - call option position can be held [4] - The long - term logic of "anti - involution" in the steel and ore market remains valid, but short - term factors are differentiated. Each variety has different supply - demand situations and corresponding strategies [6][7] - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and the glass market has a relatively better fundamental situation. It is recommended to hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] - The crude oil market is affected by geopolitical factors, with a risk premium increase and a sideways pattern [9] - Methanol has price support, and it is recommended to sell put options [9] - Polyolefins have a low basis, and the futures may continue to fluctuate [9] - Cotton prices may fluctuate in a moderately bullish range before September - October [9] - Rubber is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with a sideways price trend [9] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index - On Monday, the A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, with the ChiNext remaining strong and the trading volume slightly decreasing. The stock index futures were in a high - level consolidation, and the discount of IC and IM widened again [1] - The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market cooled down, and the market returned to a state of rapid sector rotation. The macro - level is affected by Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the fundamental long - term logic of corporate profit repair remains unchanged. The upward trend of the stock index is clear, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [1] 3.2 Treasury Bonds - The bond market rebounded across the board, and the upward pressure on the bond market decreased. The central bank made large - scale net injections, and the liquidity was abundant. The bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market in the short - term, with high uncertainty [1] 3.3 Gold and Silver - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, lacking short - term drivers. If it pulls back to the lower edge of the operating range since June, short - term long positions can be considered. The gold - silver ratio continues to converge, and silver has strong price support. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions and go long on silver [4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper market is mainly affected by the US copper tariff policy. The medium - long - term supply of the mining end is tight, and the short - term import demand depends on policies. The market has high uncertainty and is in a sideways pattern [4] Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina is affected by sentiment in the short - term, with a medium - term surplus pattern. The short - term demand for aluminum is cautious, but the supply constraints are clear, and the long - term bullish strategy is relatively stable [4] Nickel - The supply of nickel has a tight situation in Indonesia's mines and abundant production capacity of nickel iron and intermediate products. The demand is in the off - season. The market "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, and the nickel price lacks directional drivers, remaining in a sideways pattern. The short - call option position can be held [4] 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - The exchange adjusted the handling fee and daily opening limit, and the long - position sentiment in the lithium carbonate futures market weakened. The supply pattern has limited improvement, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the mining license approval results of key mines in Jiangxi in early August [6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - The silicon energy market has limited new orders for polysilicon, and downstream procurement is cautious. The industrial silicon market is mainly driven by polysilicon in the early stage, and the fundamental situation has not improved substantially, with the bullish sentiment fading [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore Threaded Steel - The spot price of threaded steel continued to decline, and the basis strengthened significantly. The regulatory tightening cooled the market, and the short - term supply contraction probability is low. The price has strong support, and it is recommended to hold the short - put option position [6] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil continued to decline, and the basis also strengthened significantly. The short - term supply contraction probability is low. The price has support, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] Iron Ore - The short - term supply of iron ore is relatively stable, and the long - term price is under pressure. The 9 - 1 positive spread strategy can be patiently held, and the arbitrage opportunity of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore in the 01 contract can be grasped after the sentiment stabilizes [7] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The exchange upgraded risk - control measures, and the coking coal futures price fell sharply. The supply tightening expectation exists, and the fundamentals support the price, but short - term unilateral participation requires caution [7] Coke - The coke spot market is bullish, but the futures price is affected by the decline of coking coal and shows a sideways decline [7] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass Soda Ash - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and the demand is affected by "anti - involution". The inventory decreased recently, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders and hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] Float Glass - The glass market has a relatively better fundamental situation, with continuous inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips or sell put options and hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] 3.10 Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors have become the short - term focus of the market, and the risk premium has increased. The OPEC+ may increase production in September. The demand - side support has weakened, and the market is in a sideways pattern [9] 3.11 Methanol - The port inventory of methanol is expected to increase, and the start - up rate of northwest coal - chemical plants is expected to rise. The futures price is higher than the spot price, and it is recommended to sell put options [9] 3.12 Polyolefins - The basis of polyolefins is low, and the futures may pull back. In August, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the futures will continue to fluctuate [9] 3.13 Cotton - The short - term supply of cotton is tight, and the demand is relatively stable. There is a possibility of additional quotas. Before September - October, the cotton price may fluctuate in a moderately bullish range [9] 3.14 Rubber - The port inventory of rubber is increasing again, and the supply and demand are both increasing. The price is in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to the production increase rate in Southeast Asian producing areas [9]

Core Viewpoint - US stock index futures are slightly higher as market focus shifts to economic data and the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.3%, reaching a new record high [1] - Nasdaq 100 index futures increased by 0.5% [1] - Dow Jones futures gained 0.1% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US dollar index reached a five-week high, driven by market speculation that economic data will show the impact of tariffs is under control [1] - Investors are shifting their attention from recent trade agreements with the EU and Japan to key indicators covering employment, inflation, and broader economic activity [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Earnings Reports - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting [1] - Investors are closely watching earnings reports from major tech companies scheduled for release this week [1] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Recent progress in trade negotiations with key partners like Japan and the EU has provided some clarity for businesses [1] - This clarity allows investors to refocus on other topics such as corporate earnings and market fundamentals [1]

7月29日（周二），伦敦和上海期铜双双下滑，因交易商权衡中美谈判以及世界第一大铜生产国智利与 美国就8月1日起对铜征收50%关税的谈判。 智利财政部长Mario Marcel周一在采访中称， 智利预计铜关税问题将在华盛顿举行的更广泛的美智贸易 谈判中进行讨论。 他补充说，智利将要求将这些关税纳入与美国的更广泛的贸易协定之中。 秘鲁总统Dina Boluarte表示，秘鲁正在评估134个矿业勘探和开采项目的授权，这些项目预计投资规模 达60亿美元。秘鲁政府希望提高这一关键产业的收入。 Boluarte在国会发表讲话时表示，她预计到今年年底，正规小规模采矿业的年销售额将超过50亿美元， 到2026年，47亿美元的正规项目应该已经开工建设。 其他基本金属方面，沪铝主力合约下跌0.22%，报收于20,605元；沪锌主力合约下跌0.35%，报收于 22,655元；沪锡主力合约下滑0.76%，报收于266,660元；沪镍主力合约跌0.85%，报收于121,800元；沪 铅主力合约收跌0.24%，至每吨16,900元。 北京时间16:26，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜下滑0.16%，报每吨9,777美元。 上海期货交 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - With recent progress in trade negotiations, the US dollar index has strengthened, leading to a continuous decline in gold prices. Amid the overall rise and fall of commodities, silver has also corrected. Before the new tariff deadline, there has been a peak in negotiations. After the US reached a trade agreement with Japan and a 15% tariff agreement with the EU (lower than previous expectations), risk aversion has cooled. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates, but the expectation of a July rate cut remains low, and the market is focusing on whether there will be a rate cut in September. The rebound of US CPI has further cooled the short - term rate cut expectation, and the market is watching this week's non - farm payrolls performance. Although US economic data shows that the impact of tariff policies is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China has been continuously increasing its gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, but the high price makes upward movement hesitant. Overall, gold and silver are likely to continue to show a volatile performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 770.68 and 772.84 respectively, with price drops of - 4.10 and - 4.16, and declines of - 0.53% and - 0.54%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9201.00 and 9218.00 respectively, with price drops of - 11.00 and - 16.00, and declines of - 0.12% and - 0.17%. [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 209675 and 112653 respectively, and the trading volumes are 256019 and 31873 respectively. The positions of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 398421 and 210928 respectively, and the trading volumes are 1203307 and 160014 respectively. [2] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 0.90 and - 1.26 respectively, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 15.00 and - 32.00 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 771.58 and 764.91 respectively, with price drops of - 2.03 and - 3.94, and declines of - 0.26% and - 0.51%. The previous closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3314.18, with a price drop of - 22.04 and a decline of - 0.66%. The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 9186.00, with a price drop of - 186.00 and a decline of - 1.98%. The previous closing price of London Silver (in dollars per ounce) was 38.15, with a price increase of 0.02 and an increase of 0.04%. [2] - **Differences and Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510 and沪银2512 - 沪银2510 are 2.16 and 17 respectively. The spot gold - to - silver ratio is 84.00. The ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver are 7.24 and 7.49 respectively. [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and COMEX gold remain unchanged at 30,258 kilograms and 38,034,038 respectively. The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver and COMEX silver have increased by 21,015.00 kilograms and 1375881 respectively. [2] Related Variables - **Index and Yield Changes**: The current values of the US dollar index, Standard & Poor's Index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are 98.6694, 6389.77, 4.42, 69.6, and 7.1835 respectively, with increases of 1.02%, 0.02%, 0.45%, 0.01%, and 0.21% respectively compared to the previous values. [2] Derivatives - **Position Changes**: The positions of spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF have increased by 1.00 tons. The net positions of CFTC speculators in silver have increased by 481, while those in gold have decreased by 1451. [2] Market News - **Trade Negotiations**: On July 28 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden, aiming to translate the important consensus of the two heads of state into specific policies and actions, implement the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks and the London framework, and promote the healthy development of China - US economic and trade relations. [3] - **Trump's Statements**: Trump may impose a unified tariff of 15% - 20% on imported goods from countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements with the US. He is also disappointed with Putin and is shortening the 50 - day deadline for Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement. If no agreement is reached, the US will implement "secondary sanctions". [3] - **US Treasury Borrowing**: The US Treasury has significantly raised its estimate of federal borrowing for this quarter to $1 trillion, mainly due to the impact of the debt ceiling. It now expects the net borrowing from July to September to be $1.01 trillion, up from the April forecast of $554 billion. [3] - **European Central Bank**: European Central Bank hawkish official Kazimir said that the ECB is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again. Unless there is a major unexpected economic turn, the reason for action in September is not sufficient. [3]

泰国财政部长：与美国的贸易谈判应在8月1日前结束。 ...

来源：许安鸿 周一（7月28日）美元指数大幅上扬，盘中突破98关口后持续走高，最终收涨1%，报98.633。美债收益率多数上行，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.417%， 2年期美债收益率收报3.93%。受累于美元走强和风险情绪回温，现货黄金连跌四日，美盘短线跳水，一度逼近3300美元大关，随后有所反弹，最终收跌 0.66%，收报3314.78美元/盎司。 随着特朗普表示考虑缩短俄乌和平协议50天期限，国际原油反弹。WTI原油期货最终收涨2.91%，报66.94美元/桶，创两周新高。从近期的高频数据来看，原 油市场仍保持一定的旺季特征，基于炼厂开工和汽油需求的良好预期，现阶段油价具备有效的基本面支撑。全球主要市场油品综合库存整体下行，去库趋势 对近端走势仍有一定支撑，但终端对裂解价差的反馈并不稳固，后期OPEC+增产兑现叠加需求自然走弱，供需错配可能带来新的下行风险。 油价上周五反弹逼近67关口后回落，回吐了全部反弹，最终收阴，但是周一没能延续其跌势，而是反弹再度站上67关口，最终收涨近3%。油价目前走势偏 震荡，下方迟迟未能跌破64一线的支撑，上方也难站上70关口，暂时还是区间震荡对待。四小时线，油价昨日表 ...

特朗普：我已指示我的贸易团队重新开始贸易谈判。 ...

泰国代理总理：特朗普承诺将处理贸易谈判。 ...