宏 观 研 究 冲击的"脉络"系列之二 2025 年 06 月 25 日 封锁"霍尔木兹"，不可信的承诺？ 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 陈达飞 A0230524080010 chendf@swsresearch.com 李欣越 A0230524080004 lixy@swsresearch.com 王茂宇 A0230521120001 wangmy2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李欣越 (8621)23297818× lixy@swsresearch.com 济 证 券 研 究 报 告 6 月以来，伊以冲突升温的背景下，伊朗一度威胁封锁霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗进行海峡封锁的可 行性、可能性与潜在影响？本文分析，可供参考。 一、封锁"霍尔木兹"的可能性？两重约束下可能性较低，市场也并不"认可" 近期，伊朗再度威胁要封锁霍尔木兹海峡。6 月 13 日，以色列针对伊朗发起"Rising Lion"行 动，伊朗随即展开报复。6 月 22 日，伊朗议会通过封锁霍尔木兹海峡的决议，只差最高国家安 全委员会做出批准。6 月 24 日，伊以宣布停火，但 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-25原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2508： 1.基本面：根据美国情报部门的初步评估，美国的空袭并没有摧毁伊朗的核能力，仅使其核能力推迟了几 个月。在美国总统特朗普的施压下，以色列与伊朗之间脆弱的停火协议周二开始生效；哈萨克斯坦官员称， 该国已通知OPEC+，其没有削减产量的计划；美联储主席鲍威尔对国会议员表示，今年夏天关税上调可能会 开始推高通胀，这将是美联储考虑降息的关键时期；中性 2.基差：6月24日，阿曼原油现货价为68.85美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为68.64美元/桶，基3.47元/ 桶，现货平水期货；中性 3.库存：美国截至6月20 ...

随着地缘局势缓和，油价持续回落，相关化工品也继续走弱，今日国内商品市场SC原油主力合约收跌8.13%，高硫燃油主力合约收跌5.96%，液化气及LU主 力合约也均跌超2%。由于地缘局势不确定性带来的供应中断的担忧减弱，盘面在供过于求的基本面预期下大幅回落。不过，光大期货也表示，目前地缘因 素尚未完全消退，在美国对伊朗的制裁未解除的情况下，市场仍对原油供应存在担忧情绪，短期油价回调幅度或相对有限。而从基本面来看，截至6月20日 当周，美国API原油库存减少423万桶，馏分油库存减少103万桶，汽油库存增加76.4万桶。原油库存延续下跌态势，说明旺季需求尚可，一定程度上支撑短 期油价。中长期来看，随着OPEC+增产及特朗普催促国内页岩油增产，叠加高关税抑制全球需求，油价仍有回落可能。 截至25日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1374.19点，较前一交易日下跌16.51点，跌幅1.19%；中证商品期货指数收报1905.21点，较前一交易日下跌 22.89点，跌幅1.19%。 尿素反弹近2.5% 红枣触及近四个月新高 上周五以来连续调整的尿素25日增仓拉涨。截至收盘时，尿素主力合约以2.47%的涨幅强势领涨当天商品 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-25 盘面大幅回调，现货市场趋于谨慎 市场分析 1、6月24日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3580元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌189元/吨，跌幅 5.01%；持仓269578手，环比下降41754手，成交460577手，环比上涨143526手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3980—4086元/吨；山东，3730—4030元/吨；华南，3650—3750元/吨； 华东，3700—3800元/吨。 随着伊朗和以色列双方均宣布正式停火，中东局势显著缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，已 基本抹去这轮冲突爆发以来的涨幅，并带动包括沥青在内的能源板块期货整体下跌。现货方面，昨日华北、山东 以及川渝地区沥青现货价格均有所下跌，西北以及华东地区沥青现货价格小涨，其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳为 主。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。由于沥青刚性需求较为疲软，情绪仍较为 谨慎，整体市场驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-25 地缘局势缓和，盘面大幅回落 市场分析 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 1、\t6月24日地区价格：山东市场，4800—4830；东北市场，4150—4310；华北市场，4590—4700；华东市场， 4580—4750；沿江市场，4830—4960；西北市场，4300—4400；华南市场，4700—4798。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷605美元/吨，跌40美元/吨，丁烷545美元/吨，跌23美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4773元/吨，跌319元/吨，丁烷4299元/吨，跌185元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷610美元/吨，跌38美元/吨，丁烷545美元/吨，跌23美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4812元/吨，跌304元/吨，丁烷4299元/吨，跌185元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日伊朗和以色列双方均宣布正式停火，中东局势显著缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，已 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/25 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/06/18 | 75.14 | 76.70 | 70.84 | 1.21 | 1.56 | -1.56 | 3.25 | 230.86 | 20.26 | 253.34 | 29.70 | | 2025/06/19 | - | 78.85 | - | 1.17 | 1.77 | - | 3.51 | - | - | - | - | | 2025/06/20 | 73.84 | 77.01 | 71.20 | - ...

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices continued to decline due to Iran's missile attack on US bases in Qatar and Iraq and the expected cease - fire. In the short - term, geopolitical situations may change, and oil prices will remain highly volatile. The market will be in a state of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year. It is recommended to consider reverse spreads in the 3rd quarter, and oil prices may test the shale oil cost line in the 4th quarter [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $78/barrel, closing at $67.23/barrel, with a high of $78.4/barrel, a low of $66.6/barrel, a decline of 8.95%, and a trading volume of 70.42 million lots. Brent's opening price was $78.9/barrel, closing at $69.73/barrel, with a high of $79.4/barrel, a low of $98.64/barrel, a decline of 7.62%, and a trading volume of 78.92 million lots. SC's opening price was 566.9 yuan/barrel, closing at 518.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 572.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 518.6 yuan/barrel, a decline of 9%, and a trading volume of 52.65 million lots [6] - **Supply - side**: In the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically completed the planned production increase. Considering Trump's concerns about high oil prices, OPEC+ may further increase production [7] - **Demand - side**: In the June report, due to the suspension of the Sino - US tariff conflict, the crude oil demand outlook improved. However, due to the expected supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment of the balance sheet was limited, and the market will accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short - term, oil prices will be highly volatile. Consider reverse spreads in the 3rd quarter, and oil prices may test the shale oil cost line in the 4th quarter [7] 2. Industry News - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to Trump's cease - fire plan with Iran. The Israeli Defense Forces detected missiles launched from Iran, and the defense system was activated. The Israeli Defense Minister instructed the military to strongly respond to Iran's cease - fire violations and conduct high - intensity strikes on targets in Tehran's core areas [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, various spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][12][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in oil prices due to reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly following a ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran [1][2][4] - As of the latest reports, SC crude oil futures fell over 8%, with other oil products like fuel oil and LPG also experiencing notable declines [1] - The market is reacting to the potential for increased U.S. oil production as President Trump encourages the energy sector to ramp up drilling to stabilize prices [2][4] Group 2 - Analysts from various institutions express differing views on the future of oil prices, with some predicting a return to fundamental pricing if geopolitical tensions ease, while others foresee continued volatility due to ongoing conflicts [3][4] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6 is expected to influence production decisions, with speculation that Saudi Arabia may continue to increase output amid market share competition [2][3] - The current geopolitical situation remains fluid, with analysts noting that any missteps could lead to renewed tensions and impact oil prices significantly [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, announced by President Trump, has led to a significant drop in international oil prices, which in turn affects the coal market, particularly coking coal and coke prices [1][4]. Macroeconomic Summary - Social financing in May remains weak, with low financing demand from households and enterprises, supported only by government bond financing. The State Council has reiterated the need to stabilize the real estate market, with cities like Guangzhou fully lifting purchase restrictions [1]. - Since April, various cities have started using housing vouchers as a means to promote sales, marking a significant policy shift. Investor sentiment towards the real estate market remains pessimistic, making a short-term turnaround difficult [1]. Industry Policy Summary - Discussions on implementing production limits for crude steel are advancing, but steel mills show reluctance to reduce output due to acceptable profit margins [1]. Supply and Demand Summary - Last week, steel production increased while inventory decreased, with total apparent demand for five major steel products rising by 160,800 tons to 8,841,800 tons. The profitability of 247 steel mills rose to 59.31%, reducing the incentive for production cuts [2]. - Daily pig iron production has ended a five-week decline, increasing by 5,700 tons to 2,421,800 tons, indicating persistent demand for coke. However, independent coking enterprises have seen a decline in capacity utilization due to environmental policies and equipment maintenance, leading to an over 8% drop in coke inventory [2]. Market Outlook Summary - According to Xinda Futures, with the end of the Israel-Iran conflict, the short-term disturbances in oil prices will dissipate, allowing coking coal to return to its own market logic. If coking coal remains resilient in the face of falling oil prices, there is potential for future price increases [4]. - The fourth round of price reductions for coke has been implemented, putting pressure on the spot market. The supply side of coke remains relatively loose despite some improvements [2][4]. Technical Analysis Summary - In the technical analysis, the 4-hour K-line for both coking coal and coke is positioned below the 20 and 60 moving averages, indicating a trend of oscillation and suggesting caution in trading strategies [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant decline due to the de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, with prices dropping over 8% in a single day, effectively reversing gains made since June 13 [1][2][3] Oil Price Movement - On June 23, international oil prices fell sharply after initial increases due to heightened geopolitical risks, with WTI crude oil futures dropping by $6.61 to $67.23 per barrel (down 8.95%) and Brent crude oil futures falling by $6.36 to $70.65 per barrel (down 8.26%) [2] - Following the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, oil prices continued to decline, nearly erasing all gains from the previous weeks [1][3] Impact on Oil and Shipping Stocks - The oil and shipping sectors in the A-share market faced significant losses on June 24, with companies like Shandong Molong and Tongyuan Petroleum hitting their daily limit down [1][4] - Prior to the decline, oil-related stocks had surged, with Shandong Molong experiencing a nearly 95.44% increase from June 13 to June 23 [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the easing of geopolitical tensions will shift market focus back to fundamental and macroeconomic drivers, with expectations of oil prices stabilizing in the $60-$65 per barrel range for Q3, but facing potential downward pressure in Q4 [6] - The market is also influenced by OPEC's continued production increases and macroeconomic factors such as U.S. tariff policies and inflation risks [6]