Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with minimal incremental information from the meeting [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen to 58.9%, with a 42.6% chance of another cut in December [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is projected to face "stagflation" by 2025, with a real growth rate of only 1.4% and inflation at 3.1% [2] - Employment data shows structural weaknesses despite strong wage growth, with leading indicators suggesting a potential decline in employment numbers [2] - Consumer spending is showing signs of weakness, with May retail sales declining by 0.9%, worse than the expected contraction of 0.7% [3] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Corporate investment is expected to continue declining, with weak manufacturing PMI and new orders indicating a downturn in non-residential investment growth [3] - The real estate sector is facing challenges such as weak housing demand and high financing rates, making improvements unlikely in the near term [3] Group 4: Factors Influencing Future Rate Cuts - Key triggers for potential rate cuts include rapid deterioration in consumer and employment data, risks in corporate bonds, and the upcoming concentrated issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds [6] - Barclays suggests that labor market weakness, diminishing tariff impacts on inflation, and declining consumer spending will be critical factors influencing future policy [7]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations. However, inflationary concerns have intensified, leading to downward revisions in economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, alongside an increase in unemployment rate predictions and price index forecasts [2][10][11] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet fully materialized, indicating significant uncertainty regarding future inflation trends. Tariff measures require time to affect consumer prices, and geopolitical issues in the Middle East may further exacerbate inflation [2][10][11] - The market is currently exhibiting signs of stagflation trading, with expectations of a potential recovery trading phase in the latter half of the year as tax reduction measures and debt ceiling increases are implemented [3][12] Group 2: Nuclear Fusion Industry - Shanghai Superconductor's IPO application has been accepted, signaling an acceleration in the industrialization of nuclear fusion. The company is a leading producer of high-temperature superconducting materials, holding over 80% of the domestic market share for second-generation high-temperature superconducting tapes [5][20][22] - The global market for high-temperature superconducting materials is projected to grow from 790 million yuan in 2024 to over 10.5 billion yuan by 2030, driven by applications in controllable nuclear fusion and other downstream industries [6][22][23] - Shanghai Superconductor's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 240 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 187.4%. The company is anticipated to achieve profitability in 2024 after previous losses [6][22][23] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The heavy truck market in China is showing signs of recovery, with a projected 16% year-on-year increase in sales to 1.06 million units in 2025, driven by the implementation of the vehicle replacement policy [17][18] - In May 2025, domestic heavy truck sales reached 89,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. The market is expected to benefit from the ongoing vehicle replacement initiatives [18][19] Group 4: Chemical Industry - The demand for photoinitiators is increasing due to their expanding application scenarios, leading to rising product prices. Key companies in this sector include Jiuri New Materials, Yangfan New Materials, and Qiangli New Materials [34][35] - The photoinitiator market is expected to grow rapidly, driven by environmental regulations and the emergence of new applications such as 3D printing [35]

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in June, maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% while continuing quantitative tightening, which aligns with market expectations [2][3] - Economic forecasts indicate a downward adjustment in growth expectations for 2025 and 2026, with unemployment rates slightly increased, reflecting concerns over "stagflation" [3][4] - The dollar index is expected to decline further in 2025 due to tariffs, economic slowdown, and strengthening of alternative assets, stabilizing below 100 for the year [7] Home Appliances Industry - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from long-term stability, with white goods focusing on performance consistency and increasing dividend rates, while black goods present opportunities due to enhanced global competitiveness [9][12] - The industry has seen a significant increase in the SW home appliance index, with respective gains of 3.8%, 25.4%, and 1.93% for 2023, 2024, and 2025 YTD [9][10] - The outlook for the home appliance market is cautious due to potential demand exhaustion and intensified competition, particularly in the air conditioning segment [10][11] Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is currently facing significant supply and demand pressures, with low profitability in the petrochemical sector, and a need for structural opportunities as the market stabilizes [15][16] - Brent crude oil prices are projected to range between $60-$70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, which may alleviate some cost pressures for the industry [15] - Key investment themes include domestic demand stimulation, supply-side constraints, and the domestic substitution of new materials [15][16] New Energy Sector - The new energy sector is experiencing structural differentiation, with a focus on new technologies and non-US exports, particularly in the wind and solar energy segments [18][19] - The demand for energy storage is expected to shift from policy-driven to market-driven profitability, with significant growth potential in domestic and overseas markets [20][21] - The wind energy sector is anticipated to see a recovery in profitability, driven by increased installations and demand from emerging markets [19][20] Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies, particularly in state-owned enterprises, technology, and consumer sectors, which are expected to yield stable excess returns [24][25] - The development of public funds is expected to favor long-term and passive investment strategies, with a focus on ETFs and sector-specific funds [25][26] - The report highlights the potential for significant returns through quantitative stock selection strategies based on fundamental factors [24][26]

Group 1 - The report highlights that Hong Kong stocks have shown strong performance, driven by impressive earnings and reasonable valuations, with a significant lead over global indices in the first half of the year [2][4]. - Key drivers for Hong Kong stocks include strong earnings from sectors such as technology, internet, pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, as well as increased share buybacks and a favorable IPO environment [2][4]. - The report suggests that the risks for Hong Kong stocks are primarily external, and despite these risks, it is expected that Hong Kong stocks will continue to generate excess returns [2][4]. Group 2 - The report identifies several sectors for investment: internet leaders, commodities, telecommunications and utilities, pharmaceuticals, and companies with upgraded earnings forecasts [2][4]. - Internet leaders are expected to perform well due to their stable competitive landscape and large user bases, while commodities are in an upward price cycle, providing a hedge against potential stagflation [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio, particularly in the pharmaceutical and new consumption sectors, which may face valuation pressures due to rising U.S. Treasury yields [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50% during the June 2025 meeting, aligning with market expectations, while concerns over "stagflation" risks remain high, making the threshold for restarting the rate cut cycle quite elevated [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Predictions and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's latest economic forecasts indicate a downward revision in growth predictions and an upward adjustment in inflation and unemployment rate forecasts, reflecting a more hawkish stance [3][4]. - The Fed has lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 0.3 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, while raising the core PCE inflation forecast for the same years by 0.3 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points [3]. - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 has been increased by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a more cautious outlook on the labor market [3]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Gold is expected to continue reaching historical highs due to factors such as potential U.S. "hard landing," dollar depreciation, and renewed Fed rate cuts, which are favorable for gold prices [2]. - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is anticipated to see upward opportunities in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks during the Fed's rate cut cycle, driven by policy guidance and improving profit margins [2]. - The U.S. stock market faces significant adjustment risks due to "stagflation," which may pressure both earnings and valuations, necessitating a reassessment of valuation levels [2]. Group 3: Tariff Impacts and Inflation Concerns - The impact of tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in the summer, with the Fed acknowledging that high tariffs are likely to increase inflation and exert pressure on economic activity [4]. - The Fed's monetary policy guidance suggests that rate cuts may not come quickly unless there is a significant deterioration in the labor market or increased economic downward pressure [4]. - The potential for a "liquidity trap" scenario is highlighted, where rising tariffs could exacerbate "stagflation" risks, leading to a possible second round of rate hikes [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to easily abandon its fight against inflation, facing a dilemma of either economic recession or stagflation [1] - ADP employment data indicates a poor job market, suggesting that the Fed may have to lower interest rates if inflation continues to cool [1] - The market predicts that the dollar may experience four interest rate cuts this year, with the probability of a cut in June approaching zero [1] Group 2 - A-shares experienced a significant drop, largely influenced by the decline in Hong Kong stocks, with both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices showing a typical bearish trend [3] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both fell over 2%, highlighting the strong correlation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3] Group 3 - The market opened lower and continued to decline throughout the day, breaking below the 30-day moving average, indicating a downward trend after a period of consolidation [5] - The next key support levels to watch for potential buying opportunities are between 3316 and 3324 points [5] Group 4 - The ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite indices fell over 1%, with more than 4600 stocks declining across the two markets [7] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 1.25 trillion, indicating heightened selling pressure and a preference for risk aversion among investors [7] - Despite the short-term bearish trend, the mid-term weekly and monthly structures remain stable, suggesting a potential new cycle may emerge after the current divergence [7]

报告导读： 2025年6月美联储继续按兵不动，但是滞胀预期加剧，美联储货币政策等待 情绪浓厚，我们提示降息预期存在进一步收窄的风险，短期可能进入滞胀交易，复苏交 易要到下半年减税法案、债务上限提高等陆续落地。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 短期美国通胀数据尚未明显反映关税影响，预计后续通胀上行持续掣肘降息，警惕降息预期进一步收窄。 后续美国通胀中枢大概率会进一步抬升，一方面关税对于美国通胀的影响尚未体现出来，主要是由于前期 抢进口积累了大量的库存，随着库存的逐渐消耗，关税对价格的影响将逐渐体现出来；二是中东问题短期 难见缓和，导致石油等大宗商品价格上升，从而对后续通胀构成更大威胁。当前美联储和美国联邦基金利 率期货市场均预期年内2次降息。如果随着新一轮减税法案落地，美国经济受到相对提振，同时通胀难以 下行，后续降息预期可能会进一步收窄，我们提示，警惕全年不降息的风险。 报告名称： 滞胀担忧增加，美联储按兵不动——2025年6月美联储议息会议点评 报告日期：2025.06.19 报告作者： 梁中华 （分析师)，登记编号： S0880525040019 汪浩 （分析师），登记编号： S0880 ...

中新社北京6月19日电 (记者 夏宾)北京时间6月19日，美联储最新一次议息会议结束，宣布将联邦基金 利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间的水平不变。这是今年以来美联储连续第四次维持利率不变。 从议息会议和美联储主席鲍威尔对外释放的消息来看，下调对美国GDP(国内生产总值)增长预期、继续 紧盯关税政策对通胀影响、减少未来降息次数预期等均是市场关注重点。 经济或陷滞胀？ 据美联储公布的经济预测概要显示，与今年3月时相比，其将今年的美国GDP增速预期中值下调0.3个百 分点至1.4%。这也是继3月后的又一次下调；将今年的通胀预期、核心PCE(个人消费支出)价格指数中 值上调0.3个百分点至3.1%。 一边是下调经济增长预期，一边是抬升通胀预期，这意味着什么？ 威灵顿投资管理固定收益基金经理库拉那(Brij Khurana)对中新社记者表示，本次议息会议的关键要点在 于，美联储预计2025年美国经济环境将面临滞胀局面，实际增长率仅为1.4%(低于趋势水平)，通胀却达 3.1%(高于目标水平)，然而美联储委员的中位数预测仍预计2025年将降息两次。 工银国际首席经济学家程实表示，美联储下调2025年经济增速预测 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive "pause" since the beginning of the current rate cut cycle in September 2024 [2] - Economic forecasts indicate a heightened concern over "stagflation," with the Fed lowering growth projections while raising inflation and unemployment rate forecasts [2][3] - The Fed's dot plot suggests two rate cuts in 2025, but the number of committee members who believe no cuts are needed has increased from four to seven since March, indicating a hawkish stance [2][3] Economic Forecasts - The Fed has revised down the GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively, while raising core PCE inflation forecasts to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [2] - Unemployment rate forecasts have been adjusted upward to 4.5% for 2025 and 2026, and 4.4% for 2027 [2] Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in the summer, with Powell indicating that high tariffs are likely to push inflation up and exert pressure on economic activity [3] - The transmission of tariffs to final consumers is anticipated to take time, with many companies expected to pass on the costs to consumers [3] Monetary Policy Guidance - Powell stated that rate cuts could come quickly or may take time, depending on the labor market and economic pressures [3] - The current Fed stance is described as "passive and reactive," with potential for rate hikes if stagflation risks intensify [3] Investment Recommendations - Gold is expected to perform well amid a potential "hard landing" in the U.S. economy, driven by factors such as dollar depreciation and renewed Fed rate cuts [4] - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is seen as having upside potential during the Fed's rate cut cycle, with expectations of improved margins and revenue [4] - U.S. equities face significant adjustment risks due to stagflation concerns, with both earnings and valuation pressures anticipated [4] - U.S. Treasuries may present a trend-following opportunity only after inflation declines, with potential for rapid interest rate increases beforehand [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25-4.5% and paused rate cuts, indicating a preference for "higher for longer" monetary policy[3] - The dot plot shows that 7 out of 19 committee members expect no rate cuts this year, while 8 anticipate two cuts, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards maintaining rates[5] - The Fed's economic forecasts for GDP in 2025 and 2026 were downgraded by 30bp and 20bp to 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively, indicating concerns about stagflation[4] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Core PCE inflation forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were raised by 30bp, 20bp, and 10bp to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1%, respectively, highlighting inflationary pressures[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is estimated to increase PCE by approximately 0.5-0.6 percentage points, as tariffs raise import prices and domestic substitutes[4] - The labor supply is expected to decrease due to immigration restrictions, further limiting growth potential[4] Group 3: Future Uncertainties - The Fed's dot plot predicts a policy rate of 3.6% by the end of 2026, up from 3.4% in March, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts[6] - Market speculation suggests that the next Fed chair may be more dovish, potentially undermining the current "higher for longer" stance and risking a loss of Fed credibility[6] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic, employment, and inflation trends remains elevated, with potential risks from fiscal and tariff policies[9]