Group 1 - International spot gold prices experienced significant volatility, dropping to $3301 per ounce before rebounding to $3333 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also declined, with brands like Chow Tai Fook reporting a drop of 7 yuan per gram, bringing the price to 978 yuan per gram [3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice emphasizing the need for market risk control due to recent instability and urged members to enhance risk awareness and maintain market stability [3] Group 2 - There has been a notable shift in consumer preferences towards smaller weight gold jewelry to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [5][6] - The popularity of traditional gold, enamel, and intricately carved products has increased among consumers [6] - The "old for new" and recycling business for gold items is thriving, with many consumers opting to exchange old gold for new pieces or cash in on high prices [6] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China has continued to increase its gold reserves, accumulating 1.03 million ounces over the past seven months, although the pace of purchases has slowed [8] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing geopolitical and economic changes may lead to a prolonged period of rising gold prices, reducing the necessity to pause gold purchases for cost control [8] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 69% of central banks expect the share of gold in global reserves to increase over the next five years, contrasting with a decline in the share of US dollar reserves [8][9] Group 4 - The World Gold Council believes that gold prices still have potential for growth, as global trade tensions and rising tariffs have not yet significantly increased inflation [9] - Economic slowdowns may pressure stock markets and cyclical commodities, positioning gold as one of the few resilient assets in a stagflation environment [9]

新华财经北京6月10日电亚洲交易时段，英镑兑美元在时间段内（截止到北京时间15:40）表现出较强的 负波动。美元兑加元和美元兑瑞郎主要在15分钟时段有轻微负波动。时段内，美元强势反弹、全球主要 国家的贸易谈判的进展及美国通胀数据构成了本周全球汇市的核心看点，随着美国5月CPI数据的临 近，市场波动性可能加剧。 美元方面，野村证券认为，关税可能会导致美国经济出现通胀效应，这意味着进口商品价格上升可能会 传导至更广泛的经济领域，推高总体价格水平。 由于关税的影响，美国的通胀率将加速上升。具体而言，美联储关注的核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格 指数到第四季度可能会上升到大约3.5%。 美国可能会经历一种类似于滞胀的经济状况，即经济增长放缓的同时伴随着较高的通货膨胀率。 时间维度特点： 15分钟波动：多数货币波动较小，美元兑加元和美元兑瑞郎有轻微负波动（-0.03%和-0.01%） 1周波动：英镑兑美元（-0.50%）和欧元兑美元（-0.09%）有持续负波动。 英镑 亚洲交易时段尾盘，市场对英镑看跌期权的需求增加。⑵ 1周到期的1.3400看跌期权的隐含波动率为 7.6%，2周到期的1.3350看跌期权隐含波动率为7. ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by improved tariff expectations and slightly better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, leading to reduced market risk aversion. However, analysts believe that gold remains a valuable asset class to watch in the second half of 2025 due to ongoing economic risks and central bank gold purchases [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have declined due to U.S. non-farm employment data exceeding expectations, which has lowered market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2]. - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, surpassing the expected 126,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2]. - Consumer inflation expectations in the U.S. have decreased, with one-year inflation expectations dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2% in May, indicating improved consumer confidence [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 73.83 million ounces by the end of May, marking a continuous increase for seven months [5]. - Since April 2025, the pace of gold purchases by the People's Bank of China has slowed, which may weaken short-term support for gold prices [5]. - Analysts suggest that despite the slowdown in gold purchases, the ongoing high debt burden in the U.S. could lead to continued central bank gold accumulation globally [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices could range between $2,980 to $3,600 per ounce in the second half of 2025, with Shanghai gold prices expected to range from 720 to 860 yuan per gram [8]. - The relationship between U.S. CPI and gold prices indicates that when CPI exceeds 2.5%, the probability of gold price increases is significantly higher than decreases [8]. - The ongoing economic uncertainties and potential for further central bank gold purchases suggest that gold's long-term investment value remains intact [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the upcoming CPI data release, the U.S. stock market may continue to rise, contrasting sharply with the pessimistic atmosphere observed during the market's drop to a 52-week low on April 8 [1] - The current logic shift is attributed to the delayed impact of tariffs, with businesses planning to pass on tariff costs by August, potentially leading to concentrated inflation pressure in Q3 [1] - Derivative traders are betting that the core CPI monthly rate will rise from 0.2% in April to 0.4% in August, before falling back below 0.2% by year-end, although these figures may not fully capture the risks of a wage-inflation spiral or economic recession [1] Group 2 - Barclays analysts noted that signs of stagflation have "quietly crept" into the data, with the upcoming inflation report possibly showing "concrete evidence of tariff-induced price increases" [2] - Gang Hu's predictions regarding inflation have been validated multiple times, and he now views tariffs as a double-edged sword that could either trigger a recession or compel the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5%, leading to a highly bifurcated economic outlook [2] - The significant market volatility this year reflects this uncertainty, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing both record highs and lows within a short timeframe, indicating that the market may remain stable even amid uncertainty [2]

Chief Executive Group最新发布的数据表明，美国企业界领导人的看法正在发生转变，因为他们正在密 切关注特朗普关税政策的不断变化。许多大型企业并未改变其盈利预期，他们指出，对于总统最终的贸 易政策会包含哪些内容以及不会包含哪些内容，目前仍存在不确定性。 特朗普在 4 月份公布了一项针对众多国家和地区实施大规模且高额征税的计划，此举导致美国金融市场 大幅波动。市场参与者担心这会抑制消费者支出。不过，他随后暂停了其中许多征税措施，这使得市场 得以部分挽回损失。在这一暂缓措施即将于下月初到期之际，白宫一直在与各国进行谈判。例如，特朗 普政府已与英国达成协议。 智通财经APP获悉，周一公布的数据表明，美国商界领袖对美国经济衰退的预期有所减弱，此前在特朗 普宣布加征关税后，这种预期曾一度飙升。根据Chief Executive Group上周对超过 270 位首席执行官 (CEO)进行的调查，不到 30% 的CEO预计未来六个月会出现轻度或重度经济衰退。这一比例低于 5 月 份的 46% 和 4 月份的 62%。 本月接受调查的CEO中，预计美国经济将出现一定程度增长的比例也飙升至 40% 以上，这一比 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The global risk appetite has generally increased due to the easing of trade tensions and better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data. In China, although May exports were slightly lower than expected, the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; different commodity sectors also have corresponding trends and investment suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Global and Domestic Situation**: Overseas, the hope of easing trade tensions and better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data alleviated concerns about an impending economic slowdown, increasing global risk appetite. In China, May exports were slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [3]. - **Asset Performance and Suggestions**: The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see. Among commodities, black commodities are expected to rebound at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemical products are expected to rebound with fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to be long; precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to be long [3]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: Driven by sectors such as biomedicine, football concepts, and rare earths, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly [4]. - **Fundamentals and Suggestions**: China's May exports were slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. The market's trading logic mainly focuses on changes in US trade policies and the progress of trade negotiations. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold rose slightly due to the weakening dollar, and silver maintained a strong upward trend. - **Fundamentals and Suggestions**: May's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but there were concerns in employment data. The ISM manufacturing PMI was at a low level, and inflation expectations remained high, accumulating stagflation risks. There is still uncertainty in the trade situation. Silver has a demand for technical breakthrough and catch-up growth, and the gold-silver ratio may be repaired. Gold is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Pay attention to the weekly CPI price index to judge the Fed's policy path [5]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continued to rise on Monday as the new round of China-US trade negotiations brought the possibility of easing global trade tensions. The market is also closely watching the progress of US-Iran negotiations. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [6][7]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rose slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Demand has recovered to a certain extent, but the recovery amplitude is still limited. The basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly, and the futures structure has weakened following the spot. Inventory destocking has stagnated recently, and it is advisable to continue to follow the high-level fluctuations of crude oil in the short term [7]. - **PX**: PTA's start-up has increased slightly recently, and the demand for PX will increase in the future. The supply pattern will remain tight, but the PX price has declined recently, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [7]. - **PTA**: The basis of PTA remains high, but the monthly spread has declined significantly. The supply of the upstream of the polyester end will increase in the short term, and the pattern of downstream load reduction is unlikely to change. The basis has probably reached a stage high recently [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The visible inventory of ethylene glycol has not been significantly destocked, and the cost pricing logic still exerts pressure on the futures market. The supply of ethylene glycol will increase significantly in the future, and the downstream start-up has decreased month-on-month. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern recently [8]. - **Short Fiber**: Short fiber generally maintains a weak and volatile pattern. The recovery speed of terminal orders is significantly lower than expected, and the price of short fiber has begun to weaken. It is expected to continue to operate weakly and volatile in the short term [8]. - **Methanol**: The market price of methanol at the port maintains a volatile trend, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The inventory in the inland and at the port has increased simultaneously. It is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, and the price still has room to decline in the medium and long term [8]. - **PP**: The domestic market quotation of PP is mainly stable, and the inventory has increased after the holiday. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure and the center of gravity will move down [9]. - **LLDPE**: The price of the polyethylene market has been adjusted, and the inventory has increased. The production expectation suppresses the price, and the price center of gravity is expected to move down [9][10]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China-US negotiation has entered a deep stage, and it is difficult to exceed expectations greatly. The copper mine supply is relatively tight, but the production of electrolytic copper is at a high level. The demand is approaching the off-season, and there is a risk of marginal decline in demand. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [11]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory of aluminum ingots has continued to decline significantly, but the market expectation is weak. The demand may weaken marginally, and the inventory destocking will slow down or even accumulate [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight in the domestic real market, and the production rate has declined. The demand is in the off-season, and the inventory has decreased. The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State may be delayed, and the tin price is expected to continue to repair in the short term, but the upside space is under pressure [12]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the net selling of CBOT grain commodity funds increased. The meteorological conditions in the US soybean producing areas are good, and the sowing progress is fast. The USDA's June supply and demand report may have a neutral impact on the market. Pay attention to the end-of-month report on the estimated soybean planting area [13]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: China's soybean imports in May increased significantly year-on-year. The pressure of concentrated arrivals of domestic imports has been realized, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has been quickly repaired. Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal lack a stable upward driving force [13][14]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The opening of oil mills has returned to normal, and the inventory of soybean oil has continued to rise. The supply of rapeseed oil in the spot market has increased. Pay attention to changes in China-Canada trade policies [15]. - **Palm Oil**: The energy market is under pressure to decline in the medium and long term, and the external油脂 market is under pressure. The domestic import profit is inverted, and the inventory is low. The inventory has increased slightly recently [15]. - **Live Pigs**: As the incremental supply of group farms and the expectation of weight reduction and pressure release in the market are gradually realized, pig prices may continue to be weakly adjusted. There may be a supplementary increase in the near-month contract [16]. - **Corn**: The corn market is affected by wheat policies and is quoted strongly. The short-term upward pressure on the spot and futures prices still exists, but after the wheat harvest, the corn demand will return, and it is still an easy-to-rise and difficult-to-fall market [16].

摘要 主要观点：关税的数据验证是下半年美国经济的主要矛盾，短期更需关注通胀的走向 特朗普关税现状、展望如何？ 5月12日中美协议后，全球贸易不确定性有所回落，但仍然处于历史极值水平。美国平均进口关税税率仍在16%左右。中国对 美国税率降至27%。美国对等关税、对华关税暂停期分别将在7月9日、8月12日结束。截止5月末，美国进口关税税率较高的行业为服装、金属等，且与其他 经济体的关税谈判进展缓慢。后续继续关注关税谈判进展以及美国立法、政治阻力。 关税的经济效应： 关税对通胀、增长影响何时体现？ 随着中-美集装箱预订量大幅提升，新一轮"抢进口"已然开启。但是，随着库存累积、 内需走弱、关 税"休战"到期，下半年美国"抢进口"动力或受掣肘；通胀方面，关税对美国通胀的推升效应已经出现，但效果尚不显著，三、四季度可能进入通胀上行期； 投资方面，制造业PMI、资本开支意愿调查、地产销售均指向更弱的私人投资；消费方面，近期居民收入受"暂时性"因素推升，居民"抢购"意愿已有所下滑； 就业方面，失业金等数据已出现恶化迹象，警惕失业率上升风险。 动态而言，关税对于经济的影响是从"滞胀"到"放缓"，具体取决于关税冲突如何演绎。 在 ...

2025 年的美国正站在历史的十字路口。从洛杉矶街头的硝烟到华尔街的博弈，从国会山的政治角力到波罗的海的军事对峙，这个超级大国正在经历着经济 转型的阵痛、社会结构的裂变与国际秩序的重构。这是一个充满矛盾的时代 —— 技术革命带来的繁荣与传统行业的衰退并存，公民权利意识的觉醒与政治 极化的加剧共生，全球领导力的式微与单边主义的回潮交织。 二、社会裂变：街头冲突背后的政治重构 特朗普政府的政策正在撕裂美国社会。自 2025 年 1 月重返白宫以来，其推动的削减开支、打击移民和加征关税等政策引发了多轮大规模抗议。4 月 5 日的 "Hands Off" 示威覆盖全美 50 个州，1400 场游行中旧金山湾区近万人要求总统下台。5 月 1 日的 "50501" 运动更是将抗议推向高潮，洛杉矶市中心 5000 民 众抗议驱逐外来劳工的政策。 这种社会分裂已突破传统左右分野。皮尤研究中心数据显示，43% 受访者认为 "持不同政见者构成生存威胁"，较 2020 年翻番。芝加哥大学测算的政治倾向 居住隔离指数已达 1968 年种族隔离巅峰期的 83%。更令人担忧的是，占总人口 12% 的 "双重武装群体" 正在重塑冲突形态， ...

首席点 评： 白银闪亮，黑色暗淡 贵金属 ：金银走势分化，黄金延续震荡，白银连续走强。中美高级官员在伦敦展开新一轮贸易谈判。 美国 5 月非农就业新增 13.9 万，超市场预期 13 万，失业率稳定在 4.2% ，工资增长超出预期。短期降 息预期降温，黄金出现回落，而白银在金银比价高位、行情突破走高、已经景气景气好于预期的带动下 继续走强，金银比价进一步修复。此前美国总统特朗普将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25% 提 高至 50% ，市场担忧关税会进一步蔓延至贵金属。美国众议院以微弱优势通过税改法案，对美国债务 问题和经济压力的担忧发酵。 5 月开始公布的经济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈 现更将明显的滞胀态势，不过近期数据所显示关税政策的冲击比担忧中的要小。短期内美联储难有动 作，但随着政策框架的修改，或为未来宽松进行铺垫。考虑市场正处于期待关税冲突降温的阶段，而美 联储短期内难有快速降息。黄金长期驱动仍然明确提供支撑，短期内如有有关美国债务问题发酵或是美 联储重新 QE 等动作，或提供反弹动力，整体上呈现震荡态势。白银突破后短期延续强势。 钢材 ： 当前钢厂盈利率持平未明显降低，铁水 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are reassessing the impact of tariffs on the market and inflation ahead of the upcoming US May Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, leading to a shift in market consensus [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Hedge fund trader Gang Hu believes that even if inflation data is poor, the stock market is likely to maintain an upward trend due to tariffs being viewed as "lagging but predictable" [1] - The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite indices had previously dropped to 52-week lows after the implementation of a 10% tariff on most imported goods, but the market has since absorbed the short-term impacts of such trade policies [1] - Hu predicts that the core CPI monthly increase may rise from 0.2% in April to over 0.4% in August, before dropping below 0.2% in November and December, and then rising again to about 0.3% by March next year [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Concerns - Despite a surge in unemployment claims and unexpected contraction in service sector activity raising concerns about economic slowdown, the US economy has not entered a recession as feared [2] - The stock market remains stable, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new highs since February, closing at 6005.88 and 19591.24 points respectively [2] - Barclays analysts warn that "stagflation" signs are re-emerging in the data, and upcoming inflation data may clearly show price pressures from tariffs [2] Group 3: Inflation Dynamics and Future Outlook - Hu has a track record of accurate inflation predictions, having previously indicated that inflation would last longer than expected and that the Federal Reserve would maintain high interest rates until at least September 2024 [3] - Tariffs are seen as a "double-edged sword" that could either sustain inflation and keep the Fed's rates high or slow economic growth and trigger a recession, creating significant uncertainty in policy direction [3] - Economists generally expect the May CPI year-on-year rate to be 2.5%, with a core CPI month-on-month rate of 0.3%, indicating a relatively mild change compared to April [3]