Core Viewpoint - The average performance of public FOFs has exceeded 9% this year, marking the best state in nearly five years, driven by market recovery and opportunities in equity asset allocation [2][4][6]. Performance Overview - As of August 22, 515 public FOFs achieved an average performance of 9.41% this year, with only one product showing negative returns; nearly 40 FOFs recorded a cumulative net value growth rate exceeding 20% [5]. - The top performers include Guotai's "Optimal Navigation" with a 45.49% increase and "Industry Rotation A" with a 39.97% increase in net value [5]. Market Conditions - The current market environment is characterized by a significant recovery, with domestic and overseas equity markets, as well as commodities like gold, showing strong performance [6][12]. - The A-share market has seen substantial inflows, contributing to the overall positive performance of FOFs [6]. Investment Strategy - There is a shift in public FOF investment strategies from traditional fund selection to a core-satellite model focusing on ETFs, particularly in a structural bull market [7]. - The recommendation is to increase equity asset allocation, especially in "fixed income plus" assets, as the stock market is expected to strengthen structurally over the next three years [9][12]. Asset Allocation Insights - The current "stock-bond seesaw" effect indicates a balanced attractiveness between stocks and bonds, with a focus on technology growth sectors that are historically undervalued or supported by policy [9]. - The macroeconomic stability in China suggests limited upward potential for bonds, while the equity market is recovering, enhancing the risk-reward profile for equities [9][12]. Sector Opportunities - There are notable opportunities in commodities, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares, with a focus on growth industries such as new materials and renewable energy, as well as cyclical industries like metals [11][13]. - The recommendation is to avoid over-concentration in single sectors and to regularly adjust the stock-bond ratio to maintain alignment with initial risk levels [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is likely to continue its range - bound fluctuations. The adjustment range of the bond market will be protected by the buying power of allocation investors and the central bank's liquidity injection, which will suppress the upward space of interest rates. Meanwhile, the relative "absence" of allocation power since this year will also restrict the downward space of interest rates [39]. - It is expected that 1.80% may become the temporary top of the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate, and currently, it is in the process of reaching the top [22]. - In the volatile market, attention can be paid to Guokai bonds of the 10 - year maturity, but the further manifestation of their value needs the stabilization of bond market sentiment and liquidity [40]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Review 1.1 Bond Market Fluctuated with the Stock Market, and the Long - end Was Significantly Weak - The bond market followed the stock market and failed to have an independent trend. The stock - bond "seesaw" effect was obvious, and the bond market was "desensitized" to the fundamentals. There was a concentrated redemption of bond funds, and the interest rate center shifted upward with increased daily fluctuations. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond broke through the 1.75% key point on 8/18 and then moved in the range of 1.75% - 1.79%. The overall yield curve shifted upward, with the medium - short end being significantly weak [6][7]. 1.2 Tax Payment Period Led to an Unexpected Convergence of Funds - The funding situation unexpectedly tightened and then eased marginally, with increased fluctuations in funding rates. The reasons included the resonance impact of the traditional tax period and the non - traditional stock - bond market linkage changing the flow of funds. The central bank increased the liquidity injection in advance to stabilize expectations and block the spread of redemption pressure [14]. 2. This Week's Focus 2.1 Has the Interest Rate Reached the Top? - In the past week, the central bank's support was effective, allocation investors continued to buy, and trading investors changed from selling to slightly net buying, which may gradually restrict the upward space of interest rates. It is expected that 1.80% may become the temporary top of the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate [22]. - The central bank's timely support protected the bond market adjustment. When the bond market interest rate rose to a temporary high or the selling power of trading investors such as funds increased, the central bank would increase its open - market investment within 1 - 4 days [23]. - The buying power of allocation investors formed support at the 1.8% level of the 10 - year Treasury bond, suppressing the further upward space. However, the allocation power has been relatively "absent" this year, weakening the internal repair momentum of the bond market [26][27]. - Trading investors changed from selling to slightly net buying. Funds gradually increased their purchases of Treasury bonds and short - term financing bills in the second half of the week. Meanwhile, wealth management products slightly net - bought medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, and Tier 2 capital bonds, and the current redemption pressure was generally controllable [28][31]. 2.2 How Many Basis Points Has the Market Priced for the Newly Issued Tax - Inclusive Treasury Bonds? - The 30 - year Treasury bond basically fully priced the 6% VAT on the basis of the fair active bond price. The new 10 - year Treasury bond priced about 3% of the VAT, indicating that the current bond market allocation power may be relatively weak, and the digestion of the 6% VAT for ultra - long - term varieties is limited [3][38]. 3. The Bond Market May Continue Range - Bound Fluctuations - The bond market is likely to continue range - bound fluctuations. The buying power of allocation investors and the central bank's liquidity injection will suppress the upward space of interest rates, while the relative "absence" of allocation power will restrict the downward space [39]. - In the volatile market, Guokai bonds of the 10 - year maturity can be considered. After the adjustment since late July, the allocation cost - effectiveness of 10 - year Guokai bonds is prominent, and the VAT policy adjustment may further promote the narrowing of the spread between Guokai and Treasury bonds [40].

"有人愿意接2.65%的大额存单吗，期限还有3年多，急需买芯片股。"在社交平台上，一位用户写道。 "是牛市来了吗，这么多大额存单转让，今天一天收到好多转让通知。"近日，某用户在社交平台分享的 截图显示，一款年利率为3.85%的大额存单转让，由于原持有人让利幅度较大，其转让后预测年利率高 达4.87%。 最近，很多客户都发现了大额存单转让市场的火爆，过去一单难求，如今不仅额度充足，而且，在转让 区甚至出现了不少利率超过3%的产品，这也引来一批储户的蹲守。 "资金都是逐利的，近期A股持续升温，部分对A股未来上升预期较高的储户把一部分资金从储蓄池转入 资本市场，来博取更高的收益。"博通咨询金融行业首席分析师王蓬博对记者说，这也是很正常的。但 他同时提醒，投资者应该把心态放平，不追涨杀跌，更不能高杠杆炒股。 利率穿越到3年前 近段时间，大额存单转让市场再度热络起来。一民营银行发布活动通知，邀请资产余额超过50万元的客 户限时抢购大额存单转让单，其中，3年期转让单年利率为2.65%，2年期为2.4%，每位客户限量限购一 单，"基本都能抢到。"有客户称。 部分居民财富从理财转向资本市场 记者发现，类似的定向转让信息在社交 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed Chair hinted at a possible rate cut in the September meeting, but emphasized that monetary policy has no preset path [3]. - A 500 - billion - yuan "quasi - fiscal" tool is to be issued, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure [4]. - In the week from August 18th to August 22nd, the bond market yield continued to rise, and the term spread widened. Next week, factors such as capital availability, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and policy expectation games need to be focused on [5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Dynamics - Fed may cut rates in September: On the evening of August 22nd, the Fed Chair hinted at a possible rate cut in the September meeting at the Jackson Hole meeting [3]. - New policy - based financial tools to be issued: A 500 - billion - yuan "quasi - fiscal" tool is to be issued, targeting emerging industries and infrastructure [4]. Bond Market Conditions - **Primary Supply**: From August 18th to August 22nd, the cumulative issuance of interest - rate bonds was 925.8 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 370.1 billion yuan. The issuance scales of treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds were 392.7 billion yuan, 369.2 billion yuan, and 164 billion yuan respectively, with month - on - month increases of 82.4 billion yuan, 277.7 billion yuan, and 10 billion yuan [5]. - **Funding Situation**: The funding situation was relatively loose. The operating range of DR007 was 1.4669 - 1.5680%, a decrease of 1.29BP compared to August 15th. The central bank's net investment this week was 136.52 billion yuan [5]. - **Secondary Market**: In the week from August 18th to August 22nd, the bond market yield rose, and the bond market continued to decline. As of August 22nd, the yields of 1Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bonds rose by 0.42BP, 3.53BP, and 3BP respectively, closing at 1.37%, 1.78%, and 2.08%. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 increased by 3.6bp in total [6][7]. - **Term Spread**: The yield curve continued the bear - steepening trend. The 10Y - 1Y term spread increased by 3.11BP to 41.1BP, and the 30Y - 10Y term spread decreased by 0.53BP to 29.6BP [7]. Bond Market Strategy Next week, the following factors need to be focused on: - **Funding Situation**: The scale of reverse repurchase maturities next week reaches 2.98 trillion yuan. It is necessary to observe whether the central bank will increase investment to stabilize the funding situation, especially the marginal changes in liquidity after the end of the month [8]. - **Stock - Bond Seesaw Effect**: After the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through 3800 points, if it continues to rise, it may suppress bond market sentiment [8]. - **Policy Expectation Game**: The issuance of 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial tools may be a short - term negative for the bond market if it exceeds expectations. The implementation of the Fed's rate - cut expectation may be a short - term positive for the bond market [8].

近段时间，大额存单转让市场再度热络起来。 "是牛市来了吗，这么多大额存单转让，今天一天收到好多转让通知。"近日，某用户在社交平台分享的 截图显示，一款年利率为3.85%的大额存单转让，由于原持有人让利幅度较大，其转让后预测年利率高 达4.87%。 最近，很多客户都发现了大额存单转让市场的火爆，过去一单难求，如今不仅额度充足，而且，在转让 区甚至出现了不少利率超过3%的产品，这也引来一批储户的蹲守。 "有人愿意接2.65%的大额存单吗，期限还有3年多，急需买芯片股。"在社交平台上，一位用户写道。 记者发现，类似的定向转让信息在社交平台上持续增加，诸如"大额存单转让400万元，年利率3.15%， 还剩1年多""定向转让大额存单20万，2027年10月到期，年利率2.75%"等。 "资金都是逐利的，近期A股持续升温，部分对A股未来上升预期较高的储户把一部分资金从储蓄池转入 资本市场，来博取更高的收益。"博通咨询金融行业首席分析师王蓬博对记者说，这也是很正常的。但 他同时提醒，投资者应该把心态放平，不追涨杀跌，更不能高杠杆炒股。 利率穿越到3年前 近段时间，大额存单转让市场再度热络起来。一民营银行发布活动通知，邀请资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant downward pressure, with a notable increase in yields, while the stock market is thriving, leading to a shift in investor sentiment and capital allocation [1][2][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - On August 22, the issuance of 30-year special government bonds reached 83 billion yuan, with a bid rate of 2.15%, but the subscription multiple was only 2.89 times, indicating weak market demand [1]. - The bond market has seen a decline since early August, particularly affecting long-term bond funds, with some funds experiencing daily net value drops exceeding 0.5% [1][6]. - The issuance results of the 30-year bonds heightened market concerns, as the issuance rate exceeded the secondary market rate of 2.075%, reflecting a lack of demand even for highly secure assets [6][7]. Group 2: Stock Market Influence - The A-share market is witnessing unprecedented growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points, leading to a significant influx of capital into equities [1][2]. - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident, where a booming stock market results in a cooling bond market, as institutions prefer equities when expected returns are higher [2][4]. Group 3: Fund Performance - Different types of bond funds are showing varied performance; short-term bond funds remain stable, while ultra-long bond funds and interest rate bond funds have suffered significant losses [6][9]. - Mixed bond funds have performed well due to their limited equity exposure, effectively hedging against bond market declines [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond market's recovery may depend on the stock market's performance; if the A-share market remains strong, the bond market may continue to struggle [9][11]. - There is a potential for re-evaluation of bond investment opportunities as yields rise, with a key psychological threshold identified at a 1.80% yield for 10-year government bonds [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, which has risen above 3800 points, and the weak results of the primary issuance of government bonds, alongside a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [2][4]. Market Performance - The stock market showed strong performance, surpassing 3800 points, with a notable increase in trading activity. The A-share market took 5 trading days to rise from 3700 to 3800 points, indicating a rapid upward trend [4]. - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly higher at 1.768% and fluctuated throughout the day, reaching a peak of 1.79% before settling at 1.785% [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 361.2 billion yuan, with 238 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 123.2 billion yuan. Additionally, a 600 billion yuan MLF operation is scheduled for August 25, 2025, with a one-year term [2][4]. - The liquidity environment remains balanced and slightly loose, with the DR001 and DR007 rates around 1.41% and 1.47%, respectively [2]. Bond Market Insights - The primary issuance of government bonds was weak, leading to a slight increase in yields. The market reacted to guidance from major banks to purchase 30-year government bonds, which may have contributed to the observed fluctuations in bond yields [4]. - The overall trading volume in the interbank market was significant, with R001 and R007 rates at 1.45% and 1.48%, respectively, indicating a diverse range of trading activities [3].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market has experienced a significant rally since August, while bond funds have struggled due to rising long-term bond yields and tightening liquidity conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Since August 4, the A-share market has been on an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking a nearly ten-year high and the total market capitalization reaching a historical record [1]. - Trading activity in the A-share market has been robust, with daily transaction volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan since August 13 [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has faced a sharp decline, particularly after August 7, with the 30-year government bond futures experiencing a significant drop of 1.33% on August 18 [2]. - As of August 20, over 660 bond funds reported negative returns for the month, with 86 funds experiencing net value losses exceeding 1% [4]. - The 30-year government bond yield rose from a low of approximately 1.95% to over 2.1%, while the 10-year yield increased from around 1.68% to nearly 1.79% [6]. Group 3: Fund Performance and Investor Behavior - On August 18, ten bond funds saw daily net value declines exceeding 1%, with the maximum drop reaching 1.63% [4]. - The recent strong performance of the stock market has intensified the negative correlation between stocks and bonds, leading many bond fund investors to shift towards equities [4][5]. - Institutional behavior has diverged, with funds and brokerages being net sellers of long-duration bonds, while large banks and insurance companies have increased their allocation to various durations of government bonds [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the most severe adjustments in the bond market may have ended, full stabilization will depend on signals of easing liquidity or a cooling of stock market sentiment [5]. - Recommendations for bond fund investors include shortening duration to mitigate volatility and considering "fixed income plus" funds to enhance yield flexibility and reduce single-asset risk [5].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is experiencing significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 12.8% and the ChiNext Index up 22% in 2025, while the bond market is facing challenges, with a 30-year government bond ETF down over 2% year-to-date and a further decline of 4% since June [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds reflects a shift in market risk appetite, where funds flow into equities during bullish phases and retreat to bonds during bearish phases [1][2] - The primary determinants of bond market trends are economic fundamentals, including macroeconomic conditions, inflation, and monetary policy, rather than stock market performance [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data indicates a weakening trend, with July's new loans showing negative growth for the first time since 2005 and a decline in social financing year-on-year [2][3] - Despite these indicators suggesting support for the bond market, the bond market continues to decline due to strong stock performance and policy disruptions, indicating a temporary disconnection from economic data [2][3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In a bullish stock market, the bond market may not present high value, but there are opportunities for tactical trading, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high [4][5] - Monitoring the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields is crucial, as bond prices and yields move inversely; rising yields lead to falling bond prices and vice versa [4][5] Group 4: Historical Context - Over the past decade, the long-term trend in China's bond market has been a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield currently around 1.76% and the 30-year yield at 2.06% [5][6] - Historical data shows that current yields are at a low point, but there is potential for further declines, indicating a long-term downward trend in interest rates [6][7] Group 5: Tactical Approaches - For short-term trading, flexibility is key; if yields rise, it presents buying opportunities, while falling yields may prompt profit-taking [6][7] - For long-term investments, considerations include duration selection, risk-return trade-offs, and alignment with market conditions, emphasizing the importance of rational decision-making [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows new resilience with the dual records of "trillion - kilowatt - hour electricity consumption and trillion - yuan trading volume". The policy combination is effective, and a positive cycle has been formed [1]. - The domestic stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + fund bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2]. - Various commodities have different trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Chief Comment - A - share market major indices are rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively this year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets frequently exceeds 2 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance is at a historical high [1]. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.0226 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, doubling compared to a decade ago [1]. - China's foreign trade maintains a steady - to - improving trend, with the cumulative import and export growth rate rising month by month, achieving a 3.5% increase in the first seven months [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Equity Index**: The equity index shows differentiation. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The external risks are gradually easing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices with more technology - growth components are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices with more dividend - blue - chip components are more defensive [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. The market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and the overall trend of gold and silver may be volatile with the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices continue to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories, strong oil demand, and the uncertainty of efforts to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The hurricane season in 2025 is relatively calm so far [3]. c. Main News Concerns - **International News**: The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. The EU plans to purchase $750 billion of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion of US AI chips by 2028 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council agreed in principle to the "Development Plan for the Open and Innovative Development of the Whole Biopharmaceutical Industry Chain in the China (Jiangsu) Free Trade Pilot Zone" [6]. - **Industry News**: In July, the total social electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time globally, with a significant increase in the proportion of new energy [7]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The US three major indices fell. The domestic equity index shows differentiation, and the market trading volume is 2.46 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable period, but investors need to pay attention to sector rotation [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after reaching the bottom. The central bank's monetary policy is loose, which supports short - term treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect may suppress the bond market, and the cross - variety spread may widen [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to rise due to factors such as inventory decline and demand. The hurricane has not affected key oil and gas infrastructure. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased, and the OPEC's production increase situation needs to be monitored [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand. The inventory is slowly being digested, and the terminal demand may pick up in mid - to - late August [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Similar to polyolefins, the market is driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market and supply - cost changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are volatile, waiting for signals from Powell's speech. The long - term drivers of gold still support the price, and the overall trend may be volatile [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees and stable downstream demand [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates has improved, and the smelting supply may recover [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the demand is also expected to increase. The inventory situation is complex, and the price may have room to rise if the inventory is depleted [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [22]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures of coking coal and coke are in a wide - range volatile state, with intense long - short competition [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal are weakly volatile at night. The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the reduction in planting area provides support. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats rose at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, but there are risks of a short - term decline due to factors such as US biodiesel news [26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile as the global sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories, but import pressure may drag down prices [27]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively tight, but the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside space [28]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is weakly volatile. The freight rate has been decreasing, and the short - term decline may slow down. The high - volume capacity supply may increase the downward pressure on freight rates during the off - season [29].