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2025年4月银行间本币市场运行报告
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 02:28
Group 1: Money Market Overview - The average daily trading volume and balance in the money market increased in April, with a significant decline in major repo rates and a rebound in the net lending balance of large commercial banks [2][4][5] - The total trading volume in the money market reached 143.1 trillion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 9.4%, with an average daily transaction of 6.5 trillion yuan, up 4.4% month-on-month [2][3] - The average daily balance in the money market rose to 11.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8% month-on-month, while the net lending balance of large commercial banks increased by 18.4% [5][6] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The total bond issuance in April was 4.96 trillion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 7.8% and a year-on-year increase of 23%, while net financing decreased by 7.9% month-on-month [8] - The trading volume of bonds decreased, with a total of 33 trillion yuan in transactions, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 12.6% [9][10] - Bond yields experienced a downward trend followed by a period of stability, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.62% and 1.81% [11] Group 3: Interest Rate Swap Market - The interest rate swap curve shifted downward overall, with significant decreases in swap rates for various maturities [12][13] - The average daily transaction volume in the interest rate swap market decreased, with a total nominal principal of 3.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a 14.6% month-on-month decline [13]
降准是对债市行情的确认还是催化?
Orient Securities· 2025-05-22 11:11
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating on the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Since 2020, there have been three main scenarios for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts: 1) RRR cuts change the market's expectation of the liquidity situation, catalyzing a decline in bond market interest rates; 2) RRR cuts do not significantly change market expectations and continue the bond market trend, with the yield curve steepening; 3) After RRR cuts, the market's expectation of the liquidity situation changes from loose to tight, and there is upward pressure on interest rates [6][53]. - The impact of RRR cuts on the bond market mainly includes: 1) After RRR cuts, the liquidity rate usually remains stable or drops significantly, and short - term interest rates are likely to decline, with the curve often showing a bull - steepening pattern; 2) In most cases, long - term interest rates decline with RRR cuts and liquidity easing, but there are two exceptions; 3) The scale of other tool injections after RRR cuts is positively correlated with the liquidity rate [6][54]. - The current RRR cut is similar to the second scenario, where it continues the bond market trend and increases the possibility of curve steepening. For long - term interest rates, the catalytic effect of this RRR cut is limited, and they are likely to remain volatile [6][55]. Group 3: Summary Based on the Report's Content 1. Three Scenarios of RRR Cuts Since 2020 - **Scenario 1: Catalyzing Bond Market Interest Rate Decline** - RRR cuts occur after a significant seasonal increase in the liquidity rate. After the RRR cut, the central bank's net injection may decline or increase, but the liquidity rate will eventually return to stability or decline significantly, and long - term interest rates will decline due to the shift from tight to loose monetary expectations [6][53]. - Examples include July 2021, December 2021, December 2022, and March 2023. Before these RRR cuts, the DR007 central rate increased by more than 10bp compared to the historical average. After the RRR cuts, most of the central bank's other liquidity injection tools reduced their scale, and the liquidity rate returned to stability or declined significantly, and long - term interest rates also declined [10][13][18]. - **Scenario 2: Continuing the Bond Market Trend** - RRR cuts do not occur after a sudden tightening of liquidity. After the RRR cut, the central bank's open - market operation net injection scale decreases or remains low, but the liquidity pressure can be effectively hedged. The liquidity rate remains stable or drops significantly, and short - term interest rates decline. The long - term interest rate depends on whether the fundamental expectation can be quickly improved, and there are opportunities to steepen the yield curve [6][53]. - Examples are April 2022, February 2024, and September 2024. After the RRR cuts, the central bank's open - market operation net injection scale decreased, and the liquidity rate remained stable or declined. Short - term interest rates declined, and the impact on long - term interest rates was uncertain, but there were opportunities to steepen the curve [23][28][30]. - **Scenario 3: Upward Pressure on Interest Rates After RRR Cuts** - RRR cuts do not occur after a sudden tightening of liquidity, and are accompanied by a significant increase in other liquidity injections. Usually due to factors such as the Spring Festival and high government bond supply, the liquidity rate increases in the month of the RRR cut. The interest rate trend depends on the persistence of the liquidity tightening [6][53]. - Examples are January 2020 and September 2023. After the RRR cuts, the central bank maintained a high - scale injection, but the liquidity rate still increased. The bond market trend depends on the duration of the liquidity tightening [39][42][47]. 2. Comparison of the Current RRR Cut with Historical Scenarios - The current RRR cut is similar to the second scenario. Since April, the market's expectation of loose money has been restored. In May, although the net financing of interest - bearing bonds has increased marginally, the bank's liability pressure has eased. If the liquidity rate remains stable during the current period, short - term rates such as certificate of deposit (CD) rates may decline further in June [6][55]. - For long - term interest rates, the catalytic effect of this RRR cut is limited, and they are likely to remain volatile. The RRR cut did not occur after a sudden tightening of liquidity or a significant decline in the capital market, and the impact on the market's liquidity expectation is limited. The probability of significant weakening or strengthening of the fundamental expectation after the RRR cut is low [6][55].
金融期货早班车-20250522
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 02:00
金融研究 2025年5月22日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现:5 月 21 日,A 股四大股指多数上涨,其中上证指数上涨 0.21%,报收 3387.57 点;深成 指上涨 0.44%,报收 10294.22 点;创业板指上涨 0.83%,报收 2065.39 点;科创 50 指数下跌 0.22%, 报收 995.49 点。市场成交 12,144 亿元,较前日增加 31 亿元。行业板块方面,煤炭(+2.55%),有色 金属(+2.05%),电力设备(+1.11%)涨幅居前;美容护理(-1.09%),电子(-0.93%),传媒(-0.87%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看,IF>IH>IC>IM,个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,615/196/3,599。沪深两市,机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-82、-147、35、195 亿元,分别变动-128、-81、+72、+138 亿元。 股指期货 基差:IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 222.78、178.52、75.78 与 46.03 点,基差年化收益率 分别为-21.62%、-18.46%、-11.52%与-10.04%,三 ...
中加基金权益周报︱中美贸易关系缓和,债市关注风险偏好及资金面变化
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-05-21 09:30
Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 590.5 billion, 197.3 billion, and 151.8 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 501.2 billion, 171.1 billion, and 35.7 billion [1] - The total issuance scale of non-financial credit bonds was 122.2 billion, with a net financing amount of -11.2 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Interest rates rose last week, influenced by factors such as the Sino-US Geneva joint statement, fluctuations in funding rates, the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts, and April credit data [2] Liquidity Tracking - Liquidity conditions shifted from loose to tight last week, as the demand for funds from reverse repos, MLF maturities, and government bond payments partially offset the increase in supply from the reserve requirement ratio cuts, leading to a marginal tightening in the latter half of the week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - The Sino-US Geneva joint statement canceled 91% of countervailing tariffs and exempted 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [4] - In April, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, and total social financing reached 1.2 trillion [4] Overseas Market - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating; however, the Sino-US negotiations boosted risk appetite, resulting in a 5.3% increase in the S&P 500 for the week and a 6 basis points rise in 10-year US Treasury yields [5] Equity Market - A-shares were positively impacted by the unexpected results of Sino-US negotiations, with major indices experiencing fluctuations; the total A-share index rose by 0.72%, the CSI 300 by 1.12%, and the ChiNext by 1.38%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board fell by 1.10% [6] - A-share trading volume decreased, with an average daily turnover of 1.27 trillion, down by 87.158 billion week-on-week [6] - As of May 15, 2025, the total financing balance for A-shares was 1.796728 trillion, slightly reduced by 410 million from May 8 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The 90-day tariff exemption period between China and the US is expected to stimulate exports, reducing the risk of economic slowdown in the short term, which is the macro backdrop for the recent marginal tightening of liquidity [7] - Despite insufficient credit demand, weak real estate sales, and persistently low prices, there is no basis for significant tightening of funds [7] - Future broad interest rates, including deposit and loan rates, are expected to follow policy rate cuts, and the urgency for counter-cyclical policies is reduced due to the export stimulus [7] - The bond market may provide good entry opportunities if it overprices the temporary tightening due to tax periods and payments [7] - In the convertible bond market, the weight of fundamental pricing is expected to increase, with recent valuations slightly compressed, but still supported by supply-demand dynamics [7]
建信期货国债日报-20250521
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 01:43
Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: May 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The LPR was lowered as expected, the deposit rate was cut accordingly, and the money market remained stable. The bond market lacked a clear direction, and treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly across the board. The yields of most major-term interest rate bonds in the interbank market rose, with the medium- and long-term yields rising by about 1-2bp. The central bank conducted net open market operations, resulting in a stable money market. The short-term money market rates in the interbank market showed mixed trends, while the medium- and long-term funds remained stable. The economic data in April showed marginal weakness but also resilience. There was no significant risk of a short-term decline in the fundamentals. Policy may enter an observation period, and the possibility of further policy stimulus is low. The focus of market speculation should be on the money market. Although the supply pressure of government bonds has eased marginally this week, there is tax payment pressure, which may still restrict the rebound of the bond market. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the reduction of deposit rates will drive the further decline of capital prices [8][9][10][11]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: The LPR was lowered as expected, the deposit rate was cut accordingly, and the money market remained stable. The bond market lacked a clear direction, and treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly across the board [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of most major-term interest rate bonds in the interbank market rose, with the medium- and long-term yields rising by about 1-2bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond, 250004, reported 1.6660%, up 1.1bp [9]. - **Money Market**: The central bank conducted net open market operations, resulting in a stable money market. There were 180 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due today, and the central bank carried out 357 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 177 billion yuan. The short-term money market rates in the interbank market showed mixed trends. The weighted overnight rate of interbank deposits dropped 2bp to 1.52%, and the 7-day rate dropped 1.6bp to around 1.58%. The medium- and long-term funds remained stable, and the 1-year certificate of deposit rate of state-owned large banks was in the range of 1.65-1.69%, showing little change from the previous day [10]. - **Conclusion**: The economic data in April showed marginal weakness but also resilience. There was no significant risk of a short-term decline in the fundamentals. Policy may enter an observation period, and the possibility of further policy stimulus is low. The focus of market speculation should be on the money market. Although the supply pressure of government bonds has eased marginally this week, there is tax payment pressure, which may still restrict the rebound of the bond market. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the reduction of deposit rates will drive the further decline of capital prices [11]. 2. Industry News - **Economic Data**: In April, China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.2% but lower than the previous value of 7.7%. From January to April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.4% year-on-year. From January to April, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.47024 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. Among them, private fixed asset investment increased by 0.2% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.10% in April. In April, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, lower than the expected 5.5% and the previous value of 5.9%. From January to April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1.61845 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles reached 1.47005 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. From January to April, China's real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, of which residential investment decreased by 9.6%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8%, and the decline was 0.2 percentage points narrower than that from January to March. Among them, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 2.1%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 3.2%, of which the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 1.9%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 4.1% year-on-year. The real estate development climate index in April was 93.86 [12]. - **Housing Prices**: In April, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities were flat or slightly down month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline continued to narrow. The sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities was flat month-on-month, compared with a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in second-tier cities was flat month-on-month, the same as the previous month. The sales price of second-hand residential buildings in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, compared with a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The sales prices of second-hand residential buildings in second- and third-tier cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, and the decline was 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points wider than the previous month, respectively. Notably, the month-on-month increase in new home prices in Shanghai and Dalian ranked first in the country, and the month-on-month increase in second-hand home prices in Ganzhou ranked first [13]. - **International News**: The UK is expected to reach the most significant reset agreement with the EU since Brexit, seeking to strengthen cooperation in trade and defense to promote economic growth and enhance security in the European continent. On Sunday local time, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that some US trading partners may soon face a significant increase in tariff rates again. Yellen said that if countries do not "sincerely" negotiate and fail to reach a trade agreement before the tariff suspension period expires at the beginning of July, the tariff rates will soon return to the "Liberation Day" level. US President Donald Trump announced a series of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2 and called that day "Liberation Day" [13]. - **Deposit Rate Cut**: According to Securities Times, starting from May 20, many state-owned large banks and some joint-stock banks will cut the listed RMB deposit rates again. A person from a state-owned large bank said that the bank's listed current deposit rate will be cut by 5bp to 0.05%, the listed fixed deposit rate for lump-sum deposits and withdrawals will be cut by 15bp to 25bp, and some agreement deposits and notice deposits will also be cut by 10bp to 15bp [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data for treasury bond futures on May 20, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for various contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: The report includes information on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, interbank pledged repo weighted interest rate change, and interbank deposit pledged repo rate change [26][28]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report presents the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [31].
短端利率偏弱的状态如何破解
Xinda Securities· 2025-05-20 09:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The attitude towards the bond market remains relatively positive. It is recommended to maintain a medium - to - high duration in the portfolio, appropriately increase leverage to boost short - bond holdings, and seize buying opportunities for long - end bonds during adjustments [3][49]. - Although short - term interest rates are currently weak, as technical factors wane and with the potential for deposit rate cuts and a stable monetary policy, short - and medium - term interest rates are expected to decline, which will support long - term bonds [2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Constraints on Short - Term Interest Rates from Some Technical Factors May Weaken in the Future - The weak performance of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) has restricted short - term interest rates. After the basis repair, the IRR of the CTD bond of the TS2506 contract has dropped, reducing the suppression on futures prices and potentially boosting confidence in short - term bonds [7][12]. - The decline in the central bank's claims on the government in the balance sheet may be due to the maturity of short - term bonds previously purchased or the closing of the previous short - selling long - buying operation. Currently, the impact of this factor is gradually weakening, and large banks have resumed net buying of 1 - 3 - year Treasury bonds [12][15][16]. 3.2 In the Short Term, the Probability of the Funding Rate Remaining Loose but Lower than the Policy Rate is Low, but the Decline in Deposit Rates is Still Expected to Benefit the Short - End - After the RRR cut, the tightening of the funding market was a temporary shock. The average - method assessment of the RRR and the large - scale net payment of government bonds and net withdrawal of reverse repurchase and MLF were the main reasons [17][18][19]. - Although the excess reserve ratio in April was at a low level, the central bank may tolerate a decline in banks' net lending, indicating that it hopes to maintain a loose environment but may not want the funding rate to fall significantly below the policy rate. The decline in deposit rates is conducive to compressing short - and medium - term spreads [25][30]. 3.3 The Weakening of Economic Data in April Indicates Insufficient Demand, and the Fundamental Environment is Still Favorable for the Bond Market - In April, new credit and social financing were both lower than expected. New credit mainly came from government bond issuance, and the decline in new credit may be due to the lack of bank reserve projects after the early - year impulse [34][35][39]. - Despite the slowdown in credit growth, the M2 growth rate increased due to the rise in banks' net lending and bond investment. However, the M1 growth rate declined, indicating limited currency activation [39][42]. - In April, domestic demand declined. Retail sales, investment, and production all showed signs of weakness, indicating that the fundamental environment is favorable for the bond market [44][45][47]. 3.4 The Bond Market is Expected to Continue a Relatively Strong and Volatile Trend - Although the recent Sino - US negotiation has made progress, the impact of short - term export rush is short - term. External demand still faces uncertainties, and domestic demand is insufficient. - The monetary policy is expected to remain in a loose range. If the funding expectation stabilizes, short - and medium - term interest rates are expected to decline, which will support long - term bonds [49].
4月经济运行总体保持平稳,资金面收敛态势有所缓解,债市明显回暖
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-05-20 06:50
4 月经济运行总体保持平稳;资金面收敛态势有所缓解,债市明显回暖 【内容摘要】5 月 19 日,央行公开市场继续净投放,资金面收敛态势有所缓解;债市明显回 暖;转债市场主要指数集体收涨,转债个券多数上涨;各期限美债收益率走势分化,主要欧洲 经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 (一)国内要闻 【4 月份经济运行保持总体平稳】国家统计局 5 月 19 日发布的数据显示,4 月全国规模以上 工业增加值同比增长 6.1%,社会消费品零售总额同比增长 5.1%。1-4 月,全国固定资产投资 (不含农户)同比增长 4.0%。国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示,4 月份,我国经济运行保持 总体平稳。面对外部冲击,我国经济能够顶住压力稳定增长,既得益于我国经济基础稳、优势 多、韧性强、潜能大,也得益于宏观政策协同发力、各方面积极应变,更是坚定不移推动高质 量发展、加快构建新发展格局的结果。 【4 月 70 大中城市中有 22 城新建商品住宅价格环比上涨】5 月 19 日,国家统计局公布数据 显示,中国 4 月 70 大中城市中有 22 城新建商品住宅价格环比上涨,3 月为 24 城;其中,上 海、大连涨幅 0. ...
建信期货国债日报-20250520
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 02:03
Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The marginal weakening of April economic data shows resilience, and there is no significant risk of a decline in the short - term fundamentals. Policies may enter an observation period, and the possibility of further intensification is low. The focus of market gaming should be on the capital market. Although the supply pressure of government bonds has eased marginally this week, there is tax - payment pressure, which may still restrict the rebound of the bond market. Attention should be paid to the LPR quotation tomorrow [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The April economic activity data released in the morning was weaker than expected, boosting the bond market sentiment, and treasury bond futures closed higher across the board [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined comprehensively. The decline of medium - and long - term bonds was about 2bp. By 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250004 was reported at 1.6610%, down 1.8bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank made a net injection in the open market, and the capital market tightened marginally. There were 430 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due today, and the central bank conducted 1350 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 920 billion yuan. The short - term inter - bank capital interest rates fluctuated. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fell 9.4bp to 1.54%, the 7 - day interest rate fell 3.6bp to around 1.60%, and the medium - and long - term funds increased slightly. The 1 - year large - state - owned bank certificate of deposit interest rate rose 3 - 4bp to around 1.7% compared with last weekend [10]. 2. Industry News - **Domestic Economic Data**: China's industrial added value above designated size in April increased by 6.1% year - on - year; from January to April, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 147024 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%; in April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year; from January to April, real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year [12]. - **Housing Price Data**: In April, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in each tier were flat or slightly down month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow [13]. - **International News**: The UK is expected to reach the most significant reset agreement with the EU since Brexit; the US Treasury Secretary warned that some US trading partners may face a significant increase in tariff rates [13]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of treasury bond futures contracts on May 19, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes information on the term - structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the changes in the weighted interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the interest rate of inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the average curves of Shibor3M interest - rate swaps and FR007 interest - rate swaps [34]
资金面小幅收敛,债市情绪偏弱,“多头”资金仍有看多理由
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-19 08:40
资金面小幅收敛,债市情绪偏弱 上周(5.12-5.18),中美关税政策的调整对全球资本市场带来正面影响,尤其是权益类市场重获资金关注,也造成了债市短期的压力,资金面出现了小幅收 敛,债市情绪偏弱。 公开数据统计,上周央行公开市场开展4860亿7天逆回购操作,到期8361亿,全周净回笼3501亿元,全周DR007围绕于1.50%波动,资金价格后半周有所抬 升。 每经记者|任飞 每经编辑|叶峰 上周,国债期货震荡走弱,资金面又一次出现收敛。债市情绪偏弱背景下,基金投资收益率并不理想,不过,市场中并不缺少做多的理由。总体来看,目前 影响债市的关键是不确定性因素对短期市场情绪的扰动,不过,有分析指出,利多事件的冲击对于债市的影响在今年来看是一个非常迅速的过程,债券资产 依然在年内有配置的必要和机会。 资金面是市场最为关注的因素,就目前市场的预期来看,有分析指出,预计税期资金面均衡略转紧,市场情绪整体偏弱。 根据上海东证期货的研报分析,由于中美贸易谈判进展超预期,资金面边际收敛,国债期货震荡调整,5年期到7年期品种调整幅度相对较大。 从基金的表现来看,中长期纯债基金平均业绩表现不及短债基金。Wind统计显示,短债基金上 ...
【债市观察】关税争端缓和债市收益率上行 震荡行情中提防资金面扰动
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-19 08:06
新华财经北京5月19日电(王柘)上周(2025年5月12日至5月16日),《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》在周初发布给债市带来利空, 收益率显著上行,随后几日陷入震荡,全周10年期国债收益率上涨超4BP至1.68%。降准落地,资金面前期维持均衡偏松,DR001靠向 1.4%,但周五随着资金面收敛急升逾20BP。 央行发布2025年4月金融数据显示,4月新增社会融资规模1.16万亿元,同比多增1.22万亿元;4月末社融规模存量同比增长8.7%、较上月 高0.3个百分点,广义货币(M2)同比增长8%、较上月末高1个百分点。据测算,1-4月政府债券净融资超过5万亿元,同比多约3.6万亿 元。其中,4月启动超长期特别国债、注资特别国债发行,加上地方政府特殊再融资专项债发行持续推进,当月净融资约9700亿元,同 比多约1.1万亿元,上拉社融增速大约0.3个百分点。 行情回顾 2025年5月16日,中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较2025年5月9日分别变动 3.14BP、4.53BP、4.37BP、8.13BP、6.09BP、4.42BP、3.55BP、4.68BP。 ...