Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 168 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 24, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a total bid amount of 168 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 32 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 164.8 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [1] - For the week of October 27-31, a total of 867.2 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature, along with 700 billion yuan in MLF maturing on Monday and 500 billion yuan in 182-day reverse repos maturing on Wednesday [1] - To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, the central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on October 27, with a one-year term [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains balanced, with overnight repo rates for deposit institutions stable around 1.32%, while non-bank institutions are borrowing at rates between 1.43% and 1.45% [3] - Market optimism regarding funding stability is supported by the central bank's actions, despite potential short-term liquidity tightening due to tax periods and month-end factors [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.21% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is stable at 1.68% [6] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank government bonds show slight fluctuations, with the 1-year yield at 1.4700%, 5-year at 1.6050%, and 10-year at 1.7100% [8] - The 30-year main contract for government bonds closed down 0.25%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts fell by 0.06% and 0.05%, respectively [11] Group 5: Recent Debt Issuance - Shandong Province plans to issue 16.4274 billion yuan in government special bonds on October 30, while Jiangxi Province will issue 63.2003 billion yuan in local bonds on the same day [16] - Meituan plans to raise 9 to 10 billion yuan through the issuance of dim sum bonds [17]

Report Overview - The report date is October 26, 2025, and it focuses on the bond market, aiming to solve core issues such as recent bond market trend review, institutional behavior changes, and future bond market trend outlook [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The bond market showed an overall volatile performance in the latest week. The yield of the active 10-year Treasury bond remained flat at around 1.84%, and the 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond term spread narrowed. The divergence between interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) and the money market is notable. As of October 24, the spread between the 1Y CD yield and DR007 reached 27bp, the highest level this year. The reasons for the divergence may be that banks' demand for long - term stable liabilities has increased, the maturity pressure of CDs is significantly higher than the seasonal level, and the demand side of CDs has been weak since September but improved in the latest week. As of October 24, the 1Y AAA CD rate was 1.68%, which has investment value from the perspective of institutional behavior. Additionally, the money market was stable this week, with banks' net lending volume remaining above 4 trillion yuan. Large banks continued to buy medium - and short - term bonds and increased their allocation of 10Y China Development Bank bonds, while other products bought 30Y Treasury bonds [4][9][10] Section Summaries 1. This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market was volatile. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield was stable, and the 30Y - 10Y spread narrowed. The divergence between CDs and the money market was significant. The reasons for the divergence are banks' increased demand for long - term stable liabilities, high CD maturity pressure, and the improvement of CD demand recently. The 1Y AAA CD has investment value. The money market was stable, and banks' net lending was high. Large banks and other products had specific bond - buying behaviors [4][9][10] 2. Bond Yield Curve Tracking 2.1 Key Maturity Interest Rates and Spread Changes - As of October 24, compared with October 20, the 1Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.03bp to 1.47%, the 10Y Treasury bond yield fell 0.12bp to 1.85%, and the 30Y Treasury bond yield fell 0.36bp to 2.21%. The 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread fell 0.24bp to 36.40bp, and the 10Y China Development Bank - 10Y Treasury bond spread fell 0.97bp to 15.27bp [11] 2.2 Treasury Bond Term Spread Changes - As of October 24, compared with October 20, the 3Y - 1Y Treasury bond spread fell 0.69bp to 5.78bp, the 5Y - 3Y spread rose 1.36bp to 8.80bp, the 7Y - 5Y spread rose 0.44bp to 15.57bp, the 10Y - 7Y spread fell 1.26bp to 7.55bp, the 20Y - 10Y spread rose 1.49bp to 35.06bp, and the 30Y - 20Y spread fell 1.73bp to 1.34bp [13] 3. Bond Market Leverage and Money Market 3.1 Inter - bank Pledged Repurchase Balance - As of October 24, compared with October 20, the inter - bank pledged repurchase balance decreased by 0.38 trillion yuan to 11.48 trillion yuan [16] 3.2 Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio Changes - As of October 24, compared with October 20, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.25pct to 106.92% [17] 3.3 Pledged Repurchase Turnover - From October 20 to October 24, the average pledged repurchase turnover was 7.83 trillion yuan, and the average overnight repurchase turnover was about 7.01 trillion yuan, with an average overnight trading ratio of 89.55% [18][21] 3.4 Inter - bank Money Market Operation - From October 20 to October 24, banks' net lending first decreased, then increased, and then decreased again. As of October 24, large banks and policy banks' net lending was 4.53 trillion yuan, joint - stock banks and city and rural commercial banks' net borrowing was 0.51 trillion yuan, and the net lending of the banking system was 4.03 trillion yuan. Banks' daily lending also showed a similar trend. As of October 24, large banks and policy banks' daily lending was 3.94 trillion yuan, and small and medium - sized banks' daily lending was 0.46 trillion yuan. In terms of money market rates, as of October 24, DR001 was 1.3221%, DR007 was 1.4110%, R001 was 1.3802%, and R007 was 1.4649% [22] 4. Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds 4.1 Median Duration of Bond Funds - As of October 24, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds (de - leveraged) was 2.60 years, up 0.02 years from October 20; the median duration (including leverage) was 2.63 years, up 0.01 years from October 20 [33] 4.2 Median Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds - As of October 24, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) was 3.63 years, up 0.08 years from October 20, and the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.35 years, up 0.02 years from October 20. The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (de - leveraged) was 3.29 years, up 0.06 years from October 20, and the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.39 years, up 0.01 years from October 20 [34] 5. Changes in Bond Lending Balance - As of October 24, compared with October 20, the borrowing volume of 10Y Treasury bonds decreased overall [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View Over the past half - week, the bond market showed an overall weak and volatile trend, characterized by "strong stocks and weak bonds, with sentiment disturbances as the main factor." The strong performance of A - shares and the rising expectations of Sino - US negotiations led to an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect. There was no urgent expectation for short - term interest rate cuts, resulting in insufficient motivation for loose trading. Emotional fluctuations made funds more inclined to play short - term bands rather than take long - term positions. The new redemption fee rules, active bond switching, and the wait - and - see sentiment before the release of external CPI data also suppressed long - term allocation demand. The bond market remained in a weak and volatile range, mainly reflecting the defensive behavior of trading desks and profit - taking at high levels. In the short term, attention should be paid to the rhythm of the stock market and the emotional recovery after the release of external inflation data [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Macro - level - **Macro - policies**: On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, VAT would be restored on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. Previously issued bonds would still be exempt until maturity. From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, boost service consumption, and expand effective investment. The finance minister promised more proactive macro - policies, and the NDRC aimed to release domestic demand potential and manage over - capacity. In October, the US imposed export controls and special port fees on Chinese entities, and Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China starting from November 1 [1]. - **Inflation**: In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [1]. Capital - level - **Fiscal**: The fiscal data showed "moderate revenue recovery and strong expenditure expansion." In the first three quarters, the general public budget revenue increased slightly by 0.5% year - on - year, relying on individual income tax, VAT, and stamp duty. The expenditure on social security, education, and debt interest payments maintained high growth. The government - funded budget revenue was still weak, with a narrowing decline in land sales but limited recovery, while the fund expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year [2]. - **Financial**: Financial data continued to show "stable liquidity and structural deficiencies in broad credit." The M1 growth rate rose to 7.2%, and the gap narrowed, indicating improved business activity. However, social financing and credit were still at a low level, and enterprise medium - and long - term financing was weak. Government bonds were the main source of social financing growth, and the monetary policy remained moderately loose [2]. - **Central Bank**: On October 24, 2025, the central bank conducted 168 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market**: The main repo rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.32%, 1.41%, and 1.57% respectively, and the repo rates had recently increased [2]. Market - level - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.33 yuan, 105.62 yuan, 108.01 yuan, and 115.01 yuan respectively. Their weekly fluctuations were - 0.002%, - 0.04%, - 0.1%, and - 0.25% respectively [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.02 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and 0.14 yuan respectively [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: With the rising repo rates and the fluctuating treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is considered neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Attention should be paid to the rebound of the basis spread [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes high - quality development and industrial upgrading while focusing on economic construction and achieving annual goals. Given the Q3 GDP growth rate of 4.8% and increased Sino - US trade uncertainty, the timing of "timely efforts" is worth attention. With the recent implementation of 500 billion special refinancing bonds and new policy - based financial instruments, the probability of Q4 reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts cannot be excluded, but it is not the market's benchmark expectation yet [2][3][20]. - The money market remained generally loose this week, with the DR001 stable at slightly above 1.3%. The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased, and the new - caliber capital gap index rose on Friday. The cross - October progress of inter - bank and exchange institutions is slow. If the extreme situation of a significant increase in DR001 in the last week of October does not occur, it may indicate a looser attitude of the central bank, which may also be reflected in short - and medium - term interest rates [2][14][23]. - In November, the estimated issuance scale of government bonds is about 1.9 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of about 680 billion yuan compared with October. In December, the estimated issuance of government bonds is about 2.32 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 720 billion yuan [3][35][36]. - Although the supply of certificates of deposit has increased recently, the money market remains loose, and non - bank demand for certificates of deposit is high, keeping certificate of deposit interest rates relatively stable. The increase in the net financing scale of certificates of deposit may be for next year's quota application and liability structure adjustment, and its impact may be short - term. As long as there are no major fluctuations in subsequent capital interest rates, the upward space for certificate of deposit interest rates may be limited [3][64]. - This week, bond market sentiment was weak and volatile, with credit and perpetual bond spreads continuing to narrow. Different types of institutions showed different trends in bond trading, with some increasing their holdings and some reducing them [3][67]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market 3.1.1 This Week's Money Market Review - The central bank's OMO had a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan this week. The Ministry of Finance conducted a 120 - billion - yuan 1 - month treasury cash fixed - deposit operation on Thursday, with a winning bid rate of 1.76%, a 2 - BP decline from the previous value. The money market remained generally loose, with only a limited tightening on Friday near the tax payment period, and the DR001 remained stable at slightly above 1.3% [2][6]. - The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased by 210 billion yuan to 7.83 trillion yuan. The overall scale of pledged repurchase fluctuated downward, dropping below 11.5 trillion yuan on Friday. The net lending of large - scale banks decreased continuously except on Thursday, while that of joint - stock banks and city commercial banks first increased and then decreased but remained higher than last week. The non - bank rigid lending showed a narrow - range fluctuation, slightly rising compared with last week, mainly due to the increase in money fund lending. The non - bank rigid borrowing fluctuated downward, with borrowing by major non - bank institutions decreasing. The new - caliber capital gap index fluctuated in the first half of the week and dropped to - 405.6 billion on Friday, higher than last week's - 632.9 billion [2][14]. - As of this week, the cross - October progress of inter - bank institutions was slow, only higher than that in 2024. The cross - month progress of the exchange was also at the lowest level in recent years, with the overall market cross - month progress at 11.7%, 2.6 percentage points lower than the average from 2020 - 2024, and the gap compared with previous years slightly widened compared with Thursday [2][18]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Money Market Outlook - This week, the actual net payment scale of government bonds was 214.2 billion yuan. Next week, the treasury bond payment scale will be 247.2 billion yuan. As of this week, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in 2025 was 673 billion yuan, new special bonds 3.8097 trillion yuan, ordinary refinancing bonds 2.317 trillion yuan, special refinancing bonds 30.9 billion yuan, and replacement bonds 1.9924 trillion yuan. Next week, 12 regions will issue local bonds with a scale of 270.7 billion yuan, and the actual payment scale will be 288.7 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will decrease from 214.2 billion yuan this week to 133.7 billion yuan [2][24]. - In October, the treasury bond issuance scale was 1.1956 trillion yuan, and the net financing scale decreased by 503.8 billion yuan to 224.5 billion yuan compared with September. The local bond issuance scale was 560.6 billion yuan, and the net financing scale decreased by 177.3 billion yuan to 303.6 billion yuan compared with September. Overall, the government bond issuance scale in October was 1.76 trillion yuan, and the net financing scale decreased by about 681.1 billion yuan compared with September, hitting a new low since April 2024 [2][32]. - It is estimated that the treasury bond issuance scale in November will be about 1.07 trillion yuan, and the net financing scale will be about 640 billion yuan. The local bond issuance scale is expected to be 820 billion yuan, and the net financing scale will be 570 billion yuan. Overall, the government bond issuance scale in November is expected to be about 1.9 trillion yuan, and the net financing will be about 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of about 680 billion yuan compared with October. It is expected that the government bond issuance in December will be about 2.32 trillion yuan, and the net financing will be about 720 billion yuan [3][35][36]. - Next week, the maturity scale of 7 - day reverse repurchases will rise to 867.2 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will decrease, but the coincidence of the tax payment period and cross - month time may intensify the fluctuation of the money market. However, the central bank's continuous net investment in MLF and the decrease in the net payment scale of government bonds will ease the impact of the tax payment period. It is expected that the liquidity pressure next week will be relatively controllable [3][41]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - This week, the 1 - year Shibor rate rose 1.0 BP to 1.68%. The secondary interest rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.9 BP to 1.68% [3][42]. - The net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased by 112.6 billion yuan to 346.6 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 107.2 billion yuan, 239.4 billion yuan, - 4.5 billion yuan, and 2 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit rose to 28%, and the issuance proportion of 6 - month certificates of deposit was the highest at 36%. Next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit will be about 580.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.9 billion yuan compared with this week [3][46]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks increased compared with last week, while that of joint - stock banks decreased. The 1 - year issuance spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened. The supply - demand relative strength index of certificates of deposit fluctuated at a high level after rising in the first half of the week, and the index on Friday was 1.2 percentage points higher than that on October 17, reaching 40.5%. In terms of different maturities, the supply - demand indexes of 1 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year certificates of deposit increased, while those of 3 - month and 6 - month certificates of deposit decreased slightly [3][59]. 3.3 Bill Market This week, bill interest rates first decreased and then increased. The interest rates of 3 - month and 6 - month national bills decreased by 15 BP and 5 BP respectively compared with October 17, reaching 0.23% and 0.66% [64]. 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking This week, the bond market was weakly volatile, and credit and perpetual bond spreads continued to narrow. Large - scale banks tended to significantly increase their bond holdings, with a significant increase in the willingness to hold short - term treasury bonds. Trading - type institutions' willingness to increase bond holdings weakened, while allocation - type institutions' willingness to increase bond holdings increased [3][67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The funds are stable with minor fluctuations. The central bank conducts open - market operations, and the net issuance of government bonds, the yield of certificates of deposit, and the inter - bank leverage ratio all show certain trends [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Funds - **Fund prices**: R001 closed at 1.38% (previous value 1.36%), DR001 at 1.32% (previous value 1.32%), R007 at 1.46% (previous value 1.47%), DR007 at 1.41% (previous value 1.41%), and the spread between DR007 and 7 - day OMO was 1.10bp. The 6M national and stock bill transfer discount rate was 0.66% (previous value 0.71%) [1] - **Central bank operations**: The central bank's reverse repurchase injection was 8672 billion yuan, with 7891 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 781 billion yuan. Additionally, 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits were issued this week [1] - **Government bond issuance**: This week, the net issuance of national bonds was 236 billion yuan, local bonds 1658 billion yuan, with a total net issuance of 1893 billion yuan and a total net payment of - 978 billion yuan. Next week, it is expected that the net issuance of national bonds will be 0 billion yuan, local bonds 1757 billion yuan, with a net financing of 1757 billion yuan and a total net payment of 4409 billion yuan [3] - **Inter - bank leverage ratio**: The average daily volume of pledged repurchase transactions was 7.83 trillion yuan (previous value 8.04 trillion yuan), and the average daily inter - bank market leverage ratio was 109.19% (previous value 114.70%) [3] 2. Certificates of Deposit - **Yield**: The 3M yield decreased by 0.44bp to 1.59%, the 6M yield increased by 0.03bp to 1.64%, and the 1Y yield increased by 0.87bp to 1.68%. The spread between the 1 - year certificate of deposit and R007 widened by 1.23bp to 21.01bp [2] - **Net financing and issuance structure**: The net financing of certificates of deposit this week was 345.4 billion yuan (previous value 224.7 billion yuan). The issuance interest rates of 1 - year certificates of deposit for joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 1.68%, 1.79%, and 1.75% respectively. The weighted average issuance term was 7.1M (previous value 6.1M), with 161.54 billion yuan issued for the 3M term, 347.18 billion yuan for the 6M term, and 265 billion yuan for the 1Y term [2] 3. Institutional Behavior - Not further elaborated in the content other than the inter - bank leverage ratio mentioned above

Core Insights - The overall stock private equity positions have reached a nearly one-year high, with large private equity firms, especially those with assets between 5 billion to 10 billion yuan, showing the most aggressive positions [1][4] Group 1: Market Sentiment - As of October 17, 2025, the stock private equity position index rose to 79.68%, an increase of 0.55% from the previous week, marking a nearly one-year high [1] - Since August 2025, the index has cumulatively increased by 5.75%, indicating a significant trend of increasing positions [1] - The A-share market has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with certain growth and consumer sectors experiencing clear upward movements, attracting more private equity investments [1] Group 2: Policy and Economic Environment - Continuous improvement in policy expectations has been noted, with recent signals from the policy level aimed at stabilizing growth and encouraging innovation [1] - Multiple policies supporting the real economy and capital market development have been introduced, enhancing private equity firms' confidence in the market's medium to long-term performance [1] Group 3: Fund Positioning - As of October 17, 2025, 63.40% of stock private equity firms are fully invested, while 20.41% are at medium positions, and only 11.47% and 4.72% are at low and empty positions, respectively [3] - The majority of private equity firms believe the current market is in a low recovery phase, and any positive news could trigger a rapid increase, prompting them to maintain full positions to avoid missing out [3] Group 4: Position Index by Fund Size - The position index for private equity firms of various sizes as of October 17, 2025, is as follows: - Over 100 billion yuan: 80.18% - 50-100 billion yuan: 87.35% - 20-50 billion yuan: 76.68% - 10-20 billion yuan: 78.09% - 5-10 billion yuan: 80.79% - 0-5 billion yuan: 79.65% [4][5] - The 50-100 billion yuan private equity firms have the highest position at 87.35%, a three-year high, while over 100 billion yuan firms maintain a position above 80% for two consecutive weeks [4]

国债期货日报 | 2025-10-23 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续 发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势， 培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资；9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"；10月8 日，美方将多家中国实体 列入出口管制清单并征收特别港务费，10月10 日，交通运输部发布关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告；10 月11日，特朗普于社交媒体发文称，从11月1日起将对中国加征100%关税。（2）通胀：9月CPI同比下降0.3%。 资金面：（3）财政：本次财政数据整体呈现"收入温和修复、支出强力扩张"的格局：前三季度一般公共预算收入 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Repo rates are rising, and Treasury futures prices are fluctuating, with a neutral outlook for the 2512 contract. Attention should be paid to the decline in the basis of the 2512 contract. There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4]. - Affected by the strong stock market, the rising risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts and increasing global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; China's monthly PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a 3.42 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.79% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a 0.40% decrease and a - 4.55% change rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a 0.40% increase and a 0.81% growth rate [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.94, with a 0.35 increase and a 0.36% growth rate; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1191, with a 0.003 decrease and a - 0.04% change rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with a 0.01 increase and a 0.56% growth rate; DR007 is 1.44, with a 0.01 increase and a 0.70% growth rate; R007 is 1.53, with a 0.02 increase and a 1.49% growth rate; The 3 - month yield of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit is 1.60, with a 0.01 increase and a 0.31% growth rate; The 1 - year AA - AAA credit spread is 0.09, with a 0.00 increase and a 0.31% growth rate [9]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On October 21, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.37 yuan, 105.72 yuan, 108.15 yuan, and 115.59 yuan respectively, with daily changes of 0.04%, 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.16% [2]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL is - 0.018 yuan, - 0.005 yuan, - 0.034 yuan, and - 0.240 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Fiscal data shows "moderate revenue recovery and strong expenditure expansion." In the first three quarters, general public budget revenue increased slightly by 0.5% year - on - year, relying on the recovery of individual income tax, value - added tax, and stamp duty, but its sustainability remains to be seen. Expenditure continued to increase, with high growth rates in social security, education, and debt interest payments, providing stable support for aggregate demand. Government - managed fund budget revenue is still weak, and the decline in land sales has narrowed but the recovery is limited, while fund expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year, indicating that the fiscal side is hedging against economic downward pressure by accelerating the expenditure pace [2]. - On October 21, 2025, the central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tendering [2]. - The main - term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.317%, 1.426%, 1.504%, and 1.557% respectively, and the repo rates have recently rebounded [2]. 4. Spread Overview - The report presents various spread data through multiple figures, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds, and the cross - variety spread of futures [27][31][32]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract through figures [34][37][45]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract through figures [47][51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract through figures [54][55]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract through figures [61][63][67].

Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing slight fluctuations with mixed performance, as the 10-year and 30-year government bonds yield 1.77% and 2.1% respectively [1] - Government bond futures are down across the board, with the 30-year main contract falling by 0.33% and the 10-year main contract decreasing by 0.17% [1] Liquidity Situation - The central bank has conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 100 billion, resulting in a net liquidity recovery of 68.5 billion after accounting for 91 billion in maturing amounts [2] - The liquidity remains stable and accommodative, with overnight and 7-day funding rates at 1.3% and 1.44% respectively [2] Reverse Repo Details - Recent reverse repo operations include: - 7-day reverse repo on October 20 with an issuance of 189 billion and maturity of 116 billion [4] - 7-day reverse repo on October 21 with an issuance of 159.5 billion and maturity of 91 billion [4] Bond Market Outlook - In the short term, the bond market pricing is not primarily driven by fundamentals, as new fund sales regulations have yet to be implemented and expectations for loose monetary policy remain insufficient [3] - The 10-year government bond yield is likely to fluctuate within the range of 1.7% to 1.8% [3] U.S. Treasury Focus - The key focus for U.S. Treasuries this week is the September CPI data; if inflation remains moderate, it could strengthen the expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, potentially leading to further declines in Treasury yields [5] - However, there are two risk factors to consider: a marginal easing in U.S.-China trade tensions may reduce market risk aversion, and regional bank credit issues in the U.S. could impact the market in the short term [5] - A balanced allocation between domestic stocks and bonds is recommended, along with diversification across countries for stable asset management [5]

国债期货日报 | 2025-10-21 LPR保持不变，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续 发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势， 培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资；9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"；10月8 日，美方将多家中国实体 列入出口管制清单并征收特别港务费，10月10 日，交通运输部发布关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告；10 月11日，特朗普于社交媒体发文称，从11月1日起将对中国加征100%关税。（2）通胀：9月CPI同比下降0.3%。 资金面：（3）财政：财政：本次财政数据整体呈现"收入温和修复、支出强 ...