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稀土精炼产业方面,中国具有绝对的垄断地位,所占比重超过90%,所以要精加工逃不开中国供应链
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-10 23:40
Core Insights - The recent US-China trade negotiations in London highlighted unexpected dynamics, with the US showing increased urgency to resolve trade issues, contrary to initial expectations that China would be more pressured [1][3] - The trade landscape has shifted, with China leveraging its control over rare earth exports as a counter to US technology restrictions, indicating a significant change in the power balance [3][5] - The US has struggled to form a coalition against China regarding tariffs, with limited support from other major trading partners, reflecting a broader discontent with protectionist policies [7] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The first meeting of the US-China trade negotiation mechanism took place in London, focusing on deeper issues such as US export controls on AI and chips [1] - The US delegation included high-ranking officials, indicating the importance placed on these discussions [1] Group 2: Rare Earths and Technology - China holds over 90% of the rare earth refining industry, despite having about one-third of global reserves, giving it a strategic advantage in high-tech sectors [5] - Following the announcement of US tariffs, China implemented export controls on certain rare earths, directly impacting US military production capabilities [5] Group 3: International Trade Dynamics - The US has not successfully built a coalition against China for tariff actions, with only the UK showing alignment, which underscores the challenges of unilateral trade policies [7] - China's response to US tariffs has been framed as a defense of fair international trade practices, gaining some international support [7]
47个!中国免签“朋友圈”再扩大
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-10 23:40
6月9日起,中方对沙特、阿曼、科威特、巴林持普通护照人员试行免签政策。至此,适用单方面免签政 策来华国家已扩展至47个。 自2025年6月9日至2026年6月8日,沙特、阿曼、科威特、巴林持普通护照人员来华经商、旅游观光、探 亲访友、交流访问、过境不超过30天,可免办签证入境。加上2018年全面互免签证的海合会成员国阿联 酋和卡塔尔,中方已实现对海合会国家免签"全覆盖"。 外籍旅客从上海口岸入境 北京外国语大学区域与全球治理高等研究院教授崔洪建认为,中国免签"名单"不断变长,体现了中国持 续推进高水平对外开放的坚定决心。 中国免签"名单"不断变长,体现了中国持续推进高水平对外开放的坚定决心 近两年,中国采取了很多措施进一步扩大开放。除了经贸领域,我们不断优化环境,不断开放内外资合 作领域。最具体的一个举措,就是逐渐扩大对部分国家单边免签,来体现我们要实现高水平对外合作的 决心。 我们看到现在单边免签的措施,开放的力度越来越大,范围越来越广。这一次主要针对海合会的成员国 开放免签,可以更好地密切中国和中东地区的国家在经贸、人员、文化方面的往来,可以更好地促进双 方在这些领域的相互合作。 崔洪建说,未来中国开放的 ...
广发证券首席资产研究官戴康:看好中国红利资产+AI科技产业的投资价值
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-06-10 18:05
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for global asset allocation strategies centered around three main factors: de-globalization, debt cycles, and AI industry trends [1][2] - The proposed investment strategy is a "global barbell strategy," which includes stable assets on one end and high-yield, high-volatility assets on the other [1][2] - The current global economic uncertainty necessitates a focus on asymmetric pricing opportunities within various asset classes [2][3] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the U.S. trade policy is unlikely to reverse the three underlying logics of the new investment paradigm, potentially increasing global political and economic uncertainty [2] - The recommendation includes a focus on defensive sectors in response to potential U.S. economic recession risks, alongside the necessity of gold as a sovereign credit asset [3] - The domestic market is currently in a debt contraction phase, transitioning from "passive leverage" to "active deleveraging," suggesting that domestic interest rate bonds hold long-term investment value [4] Group 3 - The "barbell strategy" is also applicable to strategic asset allocation in China, with a continued positive outlook on interest rate bonds and a focus on dividend assets and AI technology [4] - The AI sector, particularly represented by the "Tech Seven Sisters" in the U.S. market, has shown strong performance, but significant investment risks are present this year [4] - Recommended sectors include resilient dividend assets such as utilities, telecommunications, and banking, as well as industries benefiting from the AI trend, particularly those in the infrastructure to downstream application transition [4]
首席视点|广发证券戴康:美国衰退风险被严重低估,以反脆弱的“全球杠铃策略”进行全球资产配置
戴康的策略世界· 2025-06-10 12:38
Core Viewpoint - The global asset allocation should focus on three core factors: de-globalization, debt cycles, and AI industry trends [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The current global economic uncertainty necessitates an investment strategy that adopts a "global barbell strategy," which includes both stable assets and high-yield, high-volatility assets [1] - The company maintains a positive outlook on investments in gold, short-duration U.S. Treasury bonds, Chinese interest rate bonds, and China's dividend assets combined with AI technology industries [1]
大摩给出2025-26年美债收益率参考剧本:短期限收益率大降 长债独撑曲线峰
智通财经网· 2025-06-10 07:15
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts predict a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve in 2025-2026, driven by a significant decline in short-term yields rather than a substantial rise in long-term yields [1][4][6] Group 1: Yield Curve Expectations - The yield curve is expected to steepen due to a downward trend in overall yields, particularly in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Long-term yields may experience slight declines by the end of the year due to persistent high U.S. government budget deficits, while short-term yields are anticipated to decline significantly [1][4] - By the end of the year, the 10-year Treasury yield is projected to approach around 4% [4] Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Morgan Stanley anticipates that inflation pressures related to tariffs will prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates in 2025, maintaining a hawkish stance [3] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are betting on a rate cut in September and December, contrasting with Morgan Stanley's outlook [3] Group 3: Long-term Treasury Yields and Market Reactions - Long-term Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated due to expanding budget deficits, potentially leading to increased "term premiums" [6][7] - The term premium, which compensates investors for holding long-term bonds, is currently at its highest level since 2014, reflecting concerns over U.S. debt sustainability and inflation risks [7][8] - The anticipated increase in borrowing needs and government spending may exacerbate financing pressures in the market [8]
西南期货早间评论-20250610
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 07:03
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different investment strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their market conditions [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Fixed - Income and Equities - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a differentiated closing of treasury bond futures. The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and investors should remain cautious [5][6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and investors can consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. 3.2 Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures had different performances. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 3.3 Base Metals and Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate industry's downturn has led to a decline in rebar demand, and the market is in a slack season. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction. The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened marginally. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - loss points [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed weak oscillations. The market is in a supply - surplus pattern, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures had small increases. The short - term demand for ferroalloys may peak, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. If the spot losses increase significantly, investors can consider low - value call options [21][22]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper showed a strong upward trend. The upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations are positive for market sentiment, and investors can consider going long on Shanghai copper futures [56][57]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin showed an oscillating trend. The current shortage pattern in the real - world and the expectation of a loose supply are in a game, and it is expected that the upward pressure on tin prices is relatively large, with a bearish oscillating view [58][59]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The cost support is strong, but the downstream demand is weak, and it is expected that the price will run weakly [60]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and moved higher. The upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations are positive for market sentiment, and the OPEC's pressure on oil prices is expected to have passed the most severe stage. Investors can consider a long - position operation on the crude oil main contract [23][25][26]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The increase in Singapore's fuel oil inventory has put pressure on prices, but the rise in crude oil prices may drive fuel oil prices up. Investors can consider a long - position operation on the fuel oil main contract [27][28][29]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber showed a small increase. The supply pressure continues, and the demand improvement is limited. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures had different performances. The market has concerns about future demand, and the inventory has increased against the season. Wait for the market to stabilize and then look for long - position opportunities [32][33][34]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC showed a small increase. The supply - demand drive is not strong, and it is in a traditional off - season. It is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern [35][37]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea declined. The short - term cost has decreased, and the agricultural demand has not been released. In the second half of the year, exports and agricultural demand may drive the price up, and investors can consider going long at low levels [38][39][40]. - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: The previous trading day, PX futures declined. The short - term supply - demand structure is tight, but the PXN spread has a downward trend. It is recommended to trade with an oscillating mindset and pay attention to cost and policy changes [41]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The short - term supply - demand structure has weakened, but the cost has support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors can consider trading in a low - level range [42][43]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, but the inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and policy changes [44]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined slightly. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost has support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost, and investors can consider participating cautiously at low levels [45][46][47]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The raw material price has corrected, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to oscillate following the cost, and investors should pay attention to cost price changes [48]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is oversupplied. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable, and investors should not chase the rise excessively [49]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, glass futures increased. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drive, and the market sentiment is weak. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable, and short - position investors should control their positions [50]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, with obvious regional differences. Long - position investors should control their positions [51][52]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day, pulp futures increased. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and the inventory is high. The real turnaround may occur in August [53]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined slightly. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [54][55]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures increased. The U.S. soybean growing weather is good, and the supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal, and investors can consider low - value call options for soybean oil [61][62]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to increase, and the domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively low level in the past seven years. Investors can consider the opportunity to widen the rapeseed - palm oil spread [63][64]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed market lacks clear trading guidance. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil inventories have different trends. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after the correction of rapeseed meal [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic and foreign cotton futures increased slightly. The industry is in a traditional off - season, and new orders are limited. Investors should pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies and wait and see [67][68][69]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic and foreign sugar futures had different performances. The domestic sugar inventory is low, and the import volume will gradually increase. It is recommended to go long in batches [70][71][72]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day, apple futures declined significantly. The new - year domestic apple production has high uncertainty. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities after the correction [73][74]. - **Hogs**: The previous trading day, hog futures declined slightly. The short - term price may decline, but the contract is at a discount. Investors can consider positive - spread opportunities for peak - season contracts [74][75]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, egg futures declined. The egg supply is expected to increase in June, and it is recommended to go short at high levels [76][79]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures increased. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but the short - term supply pressure still exists. Corn starch follows the corn market, and it is recommended to wait and see [80][81][82]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, log futures increased. The fundamental situation has no obvious drive, and the housing transaction improvement may stimulate market sentiment in the short term. Investors should be wary of long - position sentiment disturbances [83][85].
申万宏源召开2025资本市场夏季策略会
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-06-10 06:33
Group 1 - The core theme of the conference was "Heroes are revealed in turbulent times," focusing on the current global technological revolution and China's role as a key participant [1] - The conference featured a main forum and 12 sub-forums covering various topics such as asset allocation, artificial intelligence, financial innovation, and new consumption trends [1] - The event aimed to provide a platform for discussion on future development trends and investment strategies, analyzing the new global industrial competition landscape [1] Group 2 - The organization of the conference highlighted the unique business model of Shenwan Hongyuan, which integrates research, investment, and investment banking [2] - The company aims to create a more open dialogue platform for regulatory bodies and market institutions, fostering suggestions to enhance capital market vitality [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan is committed to promoting high-quality development in the capital market through collaborative discussions and innovative ideas [2]
钨的新时代20250609
2025-06-09 15:30
Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Tungsten Demand**: Global tungsten demand is robust, with hard alloys being the primary consumption area, accounting for 65% of total demand. Emerging industries such as electric vehicles, aerospace, and military applications are driving growth in tungsten demand [2][3][4]. - **China's Tungsten Resources**: China holds 51% of global tungsten reserves and produces 80% of the world's tungsten. The industry is highly concentrated, with Jiangxi, Hunan, and Henan provinces holding 80% of China's reserves, which is 40% of global reserves [2][5]. - **Price Dynamics**: Tungsten prices have risen due to multiple factors, including environmental regulations, export controls, and structural constraints. In 2025, tungsten prices reached their highest level since 2011, with a cumulative increase of 21.8% [2][9]. Key Insights - **Strategic Importance**: Tungsten is considered a strategic resource, essential for industrial manufacturing, often referred to as the "industrial tooth." The supply-demand dynamics are tightening, leading to higher prices in the context of de-globalization [3][6]. - **Supply Constraints**: The growth rate of tungsten supply is limited, with China's production growth slowing down and overseas increments being insufficient to offset the reduction in Chinese output. By 2025, overseas supply is expected to increase slightly, but long-term production levels may stabilize around 2013 levels [4][15]. - **Export Control Impact**: China's tightening of supply indicators and export controls has led to a split in domestic and international price systems. Despite overall declines in tungsten product exports, the export of high-value downstream products like tools and blades has continued to grow [8][22]. Market Changes - **Global Supply Chain Reconfiguration**: Countries are increasingly focusing on the security of the tungsten supply chain. The U.S. and Europe are restructuring their supply chains and supporting overseas tungsten mining projects while planning to build higher strategic inventories [2][10]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are encouraged to understand the fundamentals of tungsten and consider stock allocations in related companies, as the current price increases and favorable market conditions may lead to significant benefits for listed companies [7][28]. Financial Performance - **Listed Companies' Growth**: Major Chinese tungsten companies have shown significant revenue growth from 18.75 billion yuan in 2019 to 37.25 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.7% [25]. - **Cash Flow Analysis**: Leading companies reported stable operating cash flows, with significant improvements in financing activities, indicating a strong financial position to capitalize on market opportunities [26]. Future Outlook - **Demand Projections**: The demand for tungsten is expected to grow due to the rise of new industries and increased military spending globally. The compound annual growth rate for tungsten consumption is projected to be 2.61% from 2025 to 2038 [19][24]. - **Price Trends**: Tungsten prices are anticipated to remain high in the short term, driven by tightening supply and increasing demand for high-end equipment. The market is expected to enter a prolonged bullish phase [29]. Conclusion - The tungsten industry is poised for significant growth driven by strategic demand from various sectors, supply constraints, and favorable pricing dynamics. Companies in this sector are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, making tungsten a critical area for investment consideration.
金银比价快速回归,后续怎么看?
对冲研投· 2025-06-09 12:05
期货交易者的紧密合作伙伴! 文 | 张晨 来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 要点速览 上周四(6月5日)欧市、美市时段,内外盘期银大幅拉涨, 分别突破了2024年年内高点,续 创本轮上涨以来新高。与之相对应的是,金价表现相对低迷, 近几日反而出现冲高回落的震 荡走势,这使得金银比价加速向下回归,符合我们在此前《"脱缰"的金银比价修复空间几何》 专题报告中关于"一旦经贸摩擦边际缓和,引发比价以黄金相对白银补跌(亦即白银相对黄金 补涨)的方式进行修正"的假设条件与结论。 一德菁英汇 . 以下文章来源于一德菁英汇 ,作者一德菁菁 资料来源:wind,CME,一德宏观战略部 梳理本轮白银加速拉升,并非宏观基本面出现了显著利多变化,资金聚焦金银比价回归应为主 因。 此前我们曾对金银比大幅修正对应的基本面限定条件进行梳理,即对应10年期美债盈亏 平衡通胀率(通胀预期)达成出清后的修复,上述修复对应的宏观背景通常为一轮危机后,美 短期经贸摩擦缓和情绪难改逆全球化/美元信用弱化趋势,金银比价中枢上移概率大; 短期金银比价修正目标指向87-92区间,完结后回归基本面驱动; 白银创新高打开金价上行空间 ...
预警:今年全球贸易量或骤降18%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 11:02
Group 1 - The OECD warns that the recent trend of de-globalization, exemplified by the U.S. tariff war, could lead to a reduction in global trade by up to 20% [1] - Countries like Canada, France, Germany, and the UK are particularly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions due to this trend [1][2] - The shift towards re-localization may result in GDP losses of up to 12% for certain countries compared to maintaining the current global trade system [2] Group 2 - The shipping industry is experiencing a significant increase in freight rates, with the SCFI index for the U.S. West Coast rising from $2,272 to $5,606, a 146.74% increase [3] - However, the high freight rates are expected to decline rapidly due to the recovery of shipping capacity and lower-than-expected cargo volumes [3][4] - Analysts predict that the surge in freight rates is a temporary phenomenon, and as supply chains stabilize and inventories increase, price pressures will diminish [4]