中美贸易关系
Search documents
五矿期货农产品早报-20250807
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 00:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward fluctuation due to a single supply source. The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors [3]. - The fundamentals support the central price of oils and fats, but the upside space is restricted by multiple factors, so it should be viewed as oscillatory [9]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline in the future [13]. - The cotton market is short - term bearish [16]. - The egg market has a supply - demand imbalance, with different trading strategies for the short - term and medium - term [19]. - The pig market's supply - demand logic has been re - structured, and more attention should be paid to the opportunities in the spread between contracts [22]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: Wednesday night, US soybeans fell slightly. Sino - US trade talks have not provided benefits for US soybean exports, and the good early weather in North America has also put pressure on prices. However, due to low valuation, it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose slightly by about 10 yuan on Wednesday. The成交 and提货 of soybean meal were good, and the downstream inventory days continued to decline slightly [3]. - **Weather**: In the next two weeks, rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be slightly less, mainly in the central region, and the temperature is at a neutral level [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest buying on dips at the low end of the soybean meal cost range, and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the high end. For arbitrage, focus on widening the spread of the 09 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil export volume showed different trends in June, and its production increased in July. Wet weather has delayed the rapeseed harvest in the EU 27 and the UK, and the estimated output remains unchanged [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the central price of oils and fats, but considering various restrictive factors, it should be viewed as oscillatory [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price was weakly oscillatory. The spot prices of sugar groups in different regions decreased. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi and Yunnan increased year - on - year, and the sales rates also increased [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the second half of the year, the increase in import supply will squeeze the sales space of domestic sugar. Assuming no significant rebound in the external market price, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. The US cotton's excellent - good rate remained the same as the previous week, and the budding and boll - setting rates increased [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the non - implementation of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement and weak downstream consumption, the short - term view is bearish [16]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg prices were stable or falling. The supply was sufficient, the trading was slow, and the egg prices are expected to be stable or slightly weak [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term strategy is to reduce short positions on dips to avoid risks, and the medium - term strategy is to short after a rebound [19]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig prices were half - stable and half - falling. The supply of pigs for slaughter increased, and the sales pressure on the breeding side was relatively large [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction. Pay more attention to the opportunities in the spread between contracts [22].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250806
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single - supply source, and the trend depends on Sino - US trade relations and supply - side variables [3]. - The palm oil market is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy, low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations and high near - term production [10]. - The sugar market is likely to see a price decline in the future, considering increased import supply, high import profit, and expected increase in domestic planting area [12]. - The cotton market is bearish in the short - term, as the Sino - US economic and trade agreement is not finalized, downstream consumption is weak, and the basis is strengthening [15]. - The egg market has a large supply, and the spot price in the peak season is underperforming. The near - month contract may see short - selling, while the mid - term strategy is to short after a rebound [19]. - The pig market's supply - surplus logic is being restructured due to policy intervention. There are different trading opportunities in the near - term and far - term contracts, and more attention should be paid to the spread [22]. 3. Summary by Categories Soybean/Meadow - **Important Information**: US soybean prices fell slightly on Tuesday night. Sino - US trade negotiations did not benefit US soybean exports, and good weather in North America also put pressure on prices. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose slightly, and the transaction volume increased. Last week, 2.2539 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China, and this week, 2.213 million tons are expected [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and it is recommended to go long at low cost intervals and pay attention to the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5]. Fats and Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export data shows a decline in June, while production increased in July. The government plans to increase the palm oil replanting project budget from 2026 to 2030 [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fats and oils market is supported by fundamentals but has limited upside. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory from July to September and may rise in the fourth quarter, but it should be viewed as oscillating [10]. Sugar - **Important Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly oscillating on Tuesday. Spot prices in different regions were stable. As of the end of July, sugar sales and inventory data in Guangxi and Yunnan showed different trends [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The sugar price is likely to decline in the future due to increased import supply and expected increase in planting area [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were narrowly oscillating on Tuesday. The US cotton growth data showed good conditions [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market is bearish in the short - term due to the unfinalized Sino - US agreement and weak downstream consumption [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Domestic egg prices mainly declined, with sufficient supply and weak demand [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg market has a large supply. Near - month contracts may see short - selling, and mid - term short - selling after a rebound is recommended [19]. Pigs - **Important Information**: Domestic pig prices were mainly stable, with sufficient supply and weak demand [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The pig market's supply - surplus logic is being restructured. Different trading opportunities exist in near - term and far - term contracts, and more attention should be paid to the spread [22].
棉花期货8月报告:快速修正有望企稳,棉价仍存利多支撑-20250804
Guo Du Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 04:01
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, Zhengzhou cotton prices first rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 closed at 13,650 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 0.66%. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 19,770 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 1.10%. The main contract of US cotton closed at 67.22 cents/pound, down 0.82 cents/pound for the month, a decrease of 1.21% [4]. - The low - inventory logic of the 09 contract has ended, and the 01 contract faces the pressure of new cotton listing. After a rapid price correction, there is a short - term need for stabilization and adjustment. In terms of supply, the weather in Xinjiang this year is favorable for a bumper harvest, but recent high - temperature weather may have an adverse impact on the quality of new cotton. In terms of demand, the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations has put pressure on US cotton prices, and the short - term import pressure is not large. The supply - demand tightness still exists. Coupled with the expansion of ginning factory capacity, there may be an expectation of抢购 if the price remains rigid. Therefore, cotton prices may be more likely to rise than fall from August to September. Overall, long positions can be opportunistically established near 13,200 - 13,600 for the 01 contract [4][22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou cotton prices first rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 closed at 13,650 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 0.66%. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 19,770 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 1.10%. The main contract of US cotton closed at 67.22 cents/pound, down 0.82 cents/pound for the month, a decrease of 1.21% [4][8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Weather impact is limited, and there is an expectation of a bumper cotton harvest - According to a survey in June by the International Cotton Market Monitoring System, the weather in major cotton - producing areas is favorable for cotton budding and boll - setting, with relatively few disasters. It is estimated that the new cotton yield per mu in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The national actual sown area of cotton in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [16]. (2) Downstream consumption is stable, and attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations - From January to June, the cumulative export value of clothing and clothing accessories in China was 73.466 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. The cumulative export of textile yarns, fabrics and products from January to June was 70.531 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of clothing in China was 534.13 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.59%. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles in China was 743.59 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.62%. As of August 12, the deadline for the postponement of Sino - US tariffs is approaching. Currently, Sino - US negotiations are centered around further delaying tariffs. It is expected that tariffs will most likely be postponed, but there is still a long way to go before a framework agreement is reached. If there is no progress, market sentiment will be bearish [17]. 3. Future Outlook - The low - inventory logic of the 09 contract has ended, and the 01 contract faces the pressure of new cotton listing. After a rapid price correction, there is a short - term need for stabilization and adjustment. In terms of supply, the weather in Xinjiang this year is favorable for a bumper harvest, but recent high - temperature weather may have an adverse impact on the quality of new cotton. In terms of demand, the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations has put pressure on US cotton prices, and the short - term import pressure is not large. The supply - demand tightness still exists. Coupled with the expansion of ginning factory capacity, there may be an expectation of抢购 if the price remains rigid. Therefore, cotton prices may be more likely to rise than fall from August to September. Overall, long positions can be opportunistically established near 13,200 - 13,600 for the 01 contract [4][22].
中国稀土8月1日全情报分析报告:「中美经贸会谈聚焦关税及稀土」对股价有积极影响
36氪· 2025-08-01 13:34
以下文章来源于36氪企业舆情报告 ,作者36氪 36氪企业舆情报告 . 舆情大数据,帮你看清市场全貌、看懂涨跌原因。 中国稀土公司日报 当日开盘价42.02;交易量44.63万手 换手率4.21%;缩量幅度0.14% 来源| 36氪企业全情报(ID:EV36kr) 中国稀土8月1日缩量下跌3.12% 41.04 -1.32 -3.12% 昨日收盘价43.26;当日收盘价:41.04 3日涨幅 -9.03% ;5日涨幅 -9.98%; 成交额:18.44亿;总市值:435.53亿 较过去一年的平均收盘价 +0.34% ;较过去一年的日均交易量 -0.99% "中美经贸会谈聚焦关税及稀土"舆情分析 中美经贸会谈在斯德哥尔摩举行,双方同意将已暂停的、涉及24%关税的对等加征措施及中方反制措施延长90天。此前,5月和6月双方达成初步协议,避免 了关税进一步升级和稀土出口中断。贝森特透露,在日内瓦和伦敦会议基础上,双方关于中国稀土出口的协议正在细化。此前在日内瓦和伦敦的中美谈判聚 焦于恢复中国稀土出口。分析人士指出,中国在全球稀土和永磁材料市场的主导地位赋予其重要谈判筹码。 |事件正负面性质分析 截止8月1日,此事件匹 ...
五矿期货农产品早报-20250801
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 01:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - range upward oscillation, and the trend of Sino - US trade relations and new variables on the supply side need to be monitored [2]. - The palm oil market is affected by multiple factors. Although there are positive factors such as EPA policy and B50 policy expectations, there are also negative factors like high production in Southeast Asia, so it should be viewed with an oscillatory perspective [6][8]. - The sugar market is likely to see a continued decline in Zhengzhou sugar prices in the future, considering factors such as increased import supply and expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season [10][11]. - The cotton market is currently bearish. The specific agreement of the Sino - US economic and trade talks has not been finalized, and the fundamentals show slow de - stocking [13][14]. - The egg market has different trends for near - term and post - festival contracts. The near - term contracts oscillate, and the post - festival contracts can be considered for short - selling after a rebound [15][16]. - The pig market has a re - structured supply logic due to policy intervention. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of the spread between different months [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal Important Information - On Thursday night, US soybeans closed lower. Good North American weather limits the upside, and Sino - US trade negotiations have not provided positive news for US soybean exports. However, due to low valuation, it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Domestic soybean meal spot prices are stable, with good trading volume and high提货 levels. Last week, domestic soybean crushing was 2.2389 million tons, and this week it is expected to be 2.3726 million tons. The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be normal in the next two weeks, and the overall weather is favorable. The Brazilian premium has risen slightly [2]. Trading Strategy - The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating, but the upward momentum is insufficient. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline at the end of August. It is recommended to go long at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the high end. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts [4]. Oils Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil has different trends in different periods in June. The production in July has increased to varying degrees. Indian vegetable oil importers are increasing palm oil purchases. On Thursday, domestic palm oil declined slightly, and the net long positions of the three major oils by foreign capital decreased slightly. Overall, although there are positive factors, there are still negative factors in the oil market, and the domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [6][7]. Trading Strategy - Fundamentals support the oil price center. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory in the 7 - 9 month period, and there is an expected increase in the fourth quarter. However, due to various restrictive factors, it should be viewed with an oscillatory perspective [8]. Sugar Key Information - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price declined slightly. The spot prices of sugar in different regions also decreased. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped have increased. The estimated sugar production in the 2025/26 season in the central - southern region of Brazil is slightly lower than the previous season [10]. Trading Strategy - Since the second half of the year, the price difference between imported sugar and Guangxi sugar has narrowed, and the import supply is increasing. Assuming no significant rebound in the external market price, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [11]. Cotton Key Information - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to decline. The spot price also decreased. The Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Sweden, and both sides agreed to continue to suspend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures [13]. Trading Strategy - The specific agreement of the Sino - US economic and trade talks has not been finalized, which is bearish. Fundamentally, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the short - term trend is bearish [14]. Eggs Spot Information - The national egg prices are partly stable and partly lower. The supply is acceptable, the market demand is stable, and today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable with a few rising or falling [15]. Trading Strategy - High temperatures have reduced the egg - laying rate, and the supply pressure has eased. The near - term contracts oscillate, and the post - festival contracts can be considered for short - selling after a rebound [16]. Pigs Spot Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly rose. The reduction in the slaughter volume of upstream breeding enterprises and the growing bullish sentiment in the market have boosted pig prices, and today's pig prices are expected to continue to rise [17]. Trading Strategy - The market is trading on policy intervention in capacity reduction. The supply logic has been re - structured. For near - term contracts, the possibility of large - scale de - stocking in the early fourth quarter has decreased, and the spread may show a positive structure. For far - term contracts, the spread is more likely to be in a reverse structure. Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [18].
特朗普盯上了缅甸稀土
Bei Jing Wan Bao· 2025-07-31 04:24
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing focus of the U.S. government, particularly under President Trump, on securing rare earth resources, with a specific emphasis on Myanmar as a new target for sourcing these materials [1] Group 1: U.S. Rare Earth Dependency - The U.S. has long been highly dependent on China for rare earth exports, a situation that has raised concerns amid the uncertainties in U.S.-China trade relations [1] - This dependency has led to a growing anxiety within the U.S. regarding its ability to compete effectively against China in the global market [1] Group 2: Strategic Shift - President Trump recognizes the need for the U.S. to achieve autonomy and diversification in rare earth sourcing to avoid being constrained in the context of U.S.-China competition [1]
五矿期货农产品早报-20250731
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 00:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is oscillating slightly upwards due to a single - supply source. The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors, and the price is expected to remain range - bound [3][5]. - The EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited palm oil supply in Southeast Asia have raised the annual operating center of the oil market. However, the significant year - on - year recovery of palm oil production in Southeast Asia still poses downward pressure [7]. - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. With the increase in import supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, the price is likely to continue to decline [11][12]. - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall. The ongoing Sino - US trade talks have not produced a specific agreement, and the cotton market is short - term bearish [14][15]. - The egg price is expected to remain stable, with individual regions possibly seeing a slight increase. The near - month contract is oscillating, and the post - festival contracts after 09 are recommended for short - selling after a rebound [18][19]. - The domestic pig price is expected to rise slightly. The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction, and the focus should be on the spread opportunities [21][22]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: The North American weather restricts the upside of US soybeans, and Sino - US trade talks have not provided positive news for US soybean exports. However, due to low valuation, it is expected to oscillate within a range. The domestic soybean meal price increased slightly, with good trading volume and high pick - up levels [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the soybean meal market, it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end. For arbitrage, focus on widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [5]. Oil - **Important Information**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil showed different trends in different periods in June, and the production increased in July. Brazil exported $19 billion worth of soybeans to China from January to June, accounting for 74.6% of its total soybean exports [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the oil price center. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter. However, due to factors such as high - level production expectations, the upside is limited [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price remained stable. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to increase in the first half of July [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the increase in import supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall, and the basis strengthened. Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures was extended for 90 days [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: As the specific agreement has not been finalized and the downstream consumption is weak, the cotton market is short - term bearish [15]. Egg - **Spot Information**: The national egg price remained stable, with stable supply and good market circulation. It is expected to remain stable, with individual regions possibly seeing a slight increase [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The near - month contract oscillates, and the post - festival contracts after 09 are recommended for short - selling after a rebound [19]. Pig - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price remained stable with slight fluctuations in some areas. The reduction in the slaughter volume at the beginning of the month and the strong price - support sentiment among farmers are expected to drive the price up slightly [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is trading on policy intervention in capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [22].
中美继续推动贸易关系缓和:申万期货早间评论-20250730
申银万国期货研究· 2025-07-30 00:34
Group 1: Trade Relations - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing efforts by China and the U.S. to ease trade tensions, with recent discussions in Stockholm focusing on economic policies and trade agreements [1] - The consensus reached during the talks includes extending the suspension of U.S. tariffs and China's countermeasures for an additional 90 days [1] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with significant trading activity noted at 1.83 trillion yuan, while financing balances increased by 19.26 billion yuan [2][8] - The banking sector has shown strong performance since 2025, benefiting from a low-risk interest rate environment, which is expected to attract more long-term capital into the market [2] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Lithium carbonate prices have seen fluctuations due to mining qualification issues in Jiangxi, with weekly production slightly increasing [3][19] - Oil prices rose by 2.49% following Trump's statements regarding potential tariffs on Russia if progress is not made in resolving the Ukraine conflict [3][10] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 10.8% in June, with imports decreasing by 4.2% and exports declining by 0.6% [4] - China's state-owned enterprises reported a slight decline in revenue and profit for the first half of the year, with a debt ratio increase to 65.2% [5]
【招银研究】积极因素继续共振,风险偏好全面回暖——宏观与策略周度前瞻(2025.07.28-08.01)
招商银行研究· 2025-07-28 10:20
Group 1: US Economic Recovery - The US economy is showing signs of recovery with a shift towards a more accommodative fiscal stance, as evidenced by a weekly fiscal deficit of $21.6 billion in week 29, and a projected deficit space exceeding $500 billion for Q3 [2] - Employment data indicates a significant improvement, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 4,000 to 217,000, marking a seasonal low and suggesting a stable unemployment rate [2] - Trade negotiations between the US and Japan, as well as the EU, have made progress, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US and the EU agreeing to procure $750 billion in US energy [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market experienced fluctuations influenced by two main factors: Trump's pressure on Powell for rate cuts and the positive signals from US-Japan trade agreements, leading to a rise in US stocks by 1.06% [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a high volatility pattern, with a focus on short to medium-term US Treasury bonds as interest rates are projected to remain elevated [3] - The dollar's performance will be influenced by rate cut expectations and trade negotiations, with a forecast of low volatility in the short term [3] Group 3: China Economic Indicators - China's exports showed resilience in July, with container throughput averaging 6.54 million TEUs and cargo throughput at 26.236 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 7.0% and 11.6% respectively [7] - Domestic demand is mixed, with strong growth in automobile retail sales, averaging 48,000 units per day in July, while real estate transactions are declining, with new home sales down 20.8% year-on-year [7][8] - Industrial profits in June remained weak, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to May [8] Group 4: Policy and Strategy Outlook - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting is expected to address internal and external pressures, with a focus on maintaining a 5% growth target and emphasizing policies to boost domestic demand [9] - The market sentiment is improving, driven by supply-side policies and demand-side expectations, with a notable increase in risk appetite reflected in the stock market [10] - The bond market is experiencing a correction, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.74%, while the long-term outlook for bonds remains bullish due to ongoing low interest rates [11]
瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250728
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 09:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Although the domestic economic fundamentals remained under pressure in June, the financial data showed that the effects of the loose monetary policy had begun to emerge, which might be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. The market had high expectations for the Politburo meeting and the Sino-US trade negotiations this week, and the stock index might continue to rise in the near term. In the long run, the central Huijin's increase in ETF holdings also had a driving effect on guiding long-term funds into the market, injecting confidence into the market, and the stock index also had the potential to rise. The strategy suggested buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of most futures contracts rose, with the IF, IH, and IC contracts increasing, while the IM main contract (2509) decreased. For example, the IF main contract (2509) rose to 4122.0, up 6.4 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the IF - IH current - month contract spread decreasing by 2.0 to 1325.2 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IC decreased, while that of IM increased. For instance, the IF top 20 net position decreased to -27,859.00, down 1918.0 [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of major indices rose, including the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose to 4135.82, up 8.7 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of most futures contracts changed, with the IF main contract basis decreasing to -13.8, down 2.7 [2]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: The A - share trading volume decreased to 17,661.50 billion yuan, down 493.01 billion yuan, while the margin trading balance increased to 19,474.29 billion yuan, up 54.37 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: Various indicators such as the proportion of rising stocks, option prices, and implied volatilities showed different trends. The proportion of rising stocks increased to 51.37%, up 4.60% [2]. Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - **Overall A - shares**: The strength of all A - shares increased to 5.80, up 1.10, with improvements in both the technical and capital aspects [2]. Industry News - **Industrial Enterprises**: From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The operating income was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [2]. - **A - share Financing**: As of July 27, 74 A - share companies had completed private placements this year, raising a total of 659 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the same period last year [2]. - **Stock Index Performance**: The major A - share indices generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.96%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined slightly [2]. Key Events to Watch - **International Economic Data**: Important economic data and central bank decisions in the US and Canada are scheduled to be released from July 29 to August 1, such as the US June JOLTs job openings on July 29 at 22:00 [3].