证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 11 日 哑铃策略占优 核心观点 我们认为在短期市场弹性上升的背景下，考虑到转债市场相关的潜在风险释放压力， 继续投资者继续采取稳健与成长兼具的哑铃配置策略，具体关注内需刺激受益与新质 生产力板块。 ❑ 可转债市场观察 过去一周（5 月 6 日至 5 月 9 日，下同）大部分转债指数上涨，其中可转债可选 消费行业指数，AA-及以下评级转债、可转债高价指数、小盘转债指数领涨。估 值方面，平衡性、股性估值压缩。可转债市场的价格中位数小幅上升到 120.60 元，处在 2017 年以来的 81.26%水平。 虽然近期市场整体弹性上升，但是未来一个月左右的时间我们认为市场或许更加 关注基本面，其原因主要在于；首先，基于 2024 年财报，有关国九条新规将要 落地实行，市场风格也将更加关注基本面而非成长预期；其次，评级公司也将会 在年报披露完毕后，集中对转债进行评级展望，届时或将继续有相关转债的评级 有被下调的可能性；最后，海外关税风险冲击国内风险偏好与基本面。以上几个 方面将对市场风格带来影响，市场大概率将会倾向于基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent press conference by Chinese financial authorities introduced a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, with a focus on monetary easing and support for the capital market, which exceeded market expectations [1][3][4]. Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced a 50 basis points reserve requirement ratio cut, which was beyond market expectations, along with a 0.1% reduction in policy interest rates and a 0.25% cut in structural monetary policy tool rates and personal provident fund rates [4][5]. - A total of 8 trillion yuan in funding support was announced, including 5 billion yuan for securities, funds, and insurance companies, and 3 billion yuan for stock repurchase loans [4][6]. Market Reactions - Many public fund companies believe that the policies will lead to a sustained rebound in the A-share market, particularly benefiting sectors such as technology, real estate, consumer services, precious metals, and public utilities [1][5][10]. - The A-share indices experienced consecutive gains following the announcement, indicating a potential second wave of the "9·24 market" [8]. Investment Strategies - The "barbell" strategy is favored by public fund institutions, focusing on both technology growth and defensive dividend stocks to navigate market volatility [9][10]. - The technology sector remains the most favored direction among public fund institutions, with expectations for long-term performance despite short-term uncertainties [11][12]. Economic Context - The timing of the conference coincided with a stabilization of the RMB exchange rate and the establishment of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, which adds to the significance of the policies announced [5][6]. - The focus on stabilizing domestic demand is seen as a necessary choice to counter external uncertainties, with an emphasis on sectors like real estate, consumer services, and technology innovation [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the unexpected rise of the emerging consumption sector, driven by the younger consumer demographic, amidst the prevailing "dumbbell strategy" in the A-share market for 2024 [1][2] - The Hengyue Fund's product, Hengyue Craftsmanship Preferred One-Year Holding Mixed Fund, has achieved a year-to-date increase of 37.29%, ranking 28th among 4,556 active equity funds, indicating strong market performance in the emerging consumption sector [1] - The structural opportunities arising from generational shifts in consumption are emphasized, with younger consumers, particularly those born in the 1990s, increasingly prioritizing spending on experiences and emotional satisfaction over basic living expenses [1] Group 2 - Emerging consumption is characterized by three distinct features: a younger consumer base, a shift in consumption preferences towards emotional and social attributes, and accelerated iteration of product categories such as smart wearables and health equipment [1] - Hengyue Fund has heavily invested in the consumption sector since the second quarter of the previous year, with 90% of the top ten holdings in the fund being emerging consumption-related stocks, covering various niches like beauty and pet economy [1] - In the context of increasing global trade uncertainties, domestic consumption is expected to become a focal point, with fiscal policies aimed at boosting domestic demand becoming clearer [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of the current market environment, emphasizing the need for active management strategies in bond investment portfolios to capture pricing discrepancies and select investment targets for better returns [1][4]. Market Environment - The market has experienced continued volatility in the second quarter, exacerbated by new U.S. tariff policies, leading to increased uncertainty regarding inflation, economic growth, and interest rate trends [1][2]. - The fixed income assets are gaining investor attention due to their stable returns and risk diversification benefits, although the current narrowing of spreads indicates it is not a typical "buy the dip" scenario [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The economic outlook has become highly uncertain due to factors such as policy adjustments, fiscal measures, de-globalization trends, and energy transitions, which are impacting both short-term and long-term perspectives [2]. - The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank face challenges from economic cycle pressures and structural changes, with a slight increase in the probability of recession from 15% to 20% [3]. Investment Strategy - Selective allocation is crucial as credit spreads have widened but remain at historically low levels, necessitating careful selection of bonds [4]. - The high-yield bond market shows a divided performance, presenting both opportunities and risks, with a recommendation for investors to focus on short-duration high-yield bonds due to favorable conditions [4][5]. Asset Selection - High-quality securitized credit assets, such as AAA-rated CLOs and CMBS, are expected to continue providing attractive risk-adjusted returns, while low-rated bonds exhibit high volatility without corresponding excess return potential [5]. - In the investment-grade bond sector, strong capital positions in banks and utilities are favored, while the retail sector is viewed negatively due to pressures from AI and consumer shifts [6]. Tactical Management - Active management strategies are essential in the face of narrowing spreads, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainties, with a preference for a "barbell strategy" that combines high-quality income assets with opportunistic risk assets [6]. - Fixed income assets still hold advantages over cash and equities, particularly in scenarios of significant market corrections leading to interest rate declines [6].

Group 1 - The global fund flow report indicates that from March 27 to April 23, global equity funds saw a net inflow of $68.079 billion, with emerging market funds receiving $27.14 billion, 90% of which flowed into the Chinese market [1] - Chinese equity funds specifically gained a net inflow of $24.686 billion, significantly surpassing other emerging markets like South Korea, India, and Brazil [1] - Foreign capital is primarily focusing on strong-performing tech giants in Hong Kong, such as Tencent and Alibaba, with related ETFs experiencing substantial inflows, including the Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF, which saw a year-to-date share growth of over 300% [1] Group 2 - The low interest rate environment has led to a trend where over 30 small and medium-sized banks have reduced fixed deposit rates, with 3-year and 5-year rates dropping to 2.04% and 1.88% respectively, prompting a shift towards high-dividend assets [3] - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF has achieved nine consecutive weeks of net inflows, with a dividend yield of 7.99% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.19, making it a preferred choice for "quasi-fixed income" investments [3] Group 3 - The current market conditions have led to a growing interest in the "Tech + Dividend" barbell strategy, which combines growth from technology with the stability of dividend-paying stocks [5] - The combination of the Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF and the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF is expected to define investment outcomes in 2025, as foreign long-term bets align with domestic risk-averse demands [5] - The Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF includes major players in the internet, semiconductor, and smart vehicle sectors, with a significant portion of its weight in Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, allowing investors to benefit from AI and smart vehicle trends [5]

21世纪经济报道 特约记者庞华玮 广州报道 在复杂外部环境下，南向资金持续布局港股市场，4月以来 加仓超千亿港元。 4月1日至4月17日，仅用了12个交易日，南向资金累计净流入1658.08亿港元。 对此，有业内人士表示，南向资金加速流入，主要流向消费和科技行业。 据21世纪经济报道记者了解，机构在港股投资上青睐"哑铃策略"，主要是布局港股的两类资产：一类是 以互联网龙头为代表的科技股，另一类是低估值、高股息的红利股。 2025年迄今，南向资金净流入已高达6044.61亿港元，创出同期历史新高。 值得关注的是，自4月3日起，港股市场大幅下跌，但南向资金并没有明显流出，反而逆势加仓。 格上基金发布的数据显示，4月7日到4月16日的交易日，仅4月10日是一天小幅净流出，其他交易日均为 净流入。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙表示，"虽然近期受到关税政策的影响，A股和港股都出现一定的震 荡调整，但是南下资金依然去抄底港股的优质资产，因为港股在估值方面处于全球主要资本市场的低 位，再加上美股估值泡沫破裂，资金流出寻找新的估值洼地，港股无疑是一个理想的资金流入地。" 南向资金加速流入 自4月2日美国宣布"对等关税"政策 ...

2025年的全球资本市场可能比以往任何一年都要精彩，仅仅不到四个月就堪称波澜壮阔——先是降息预 期反复摇摆，然后是外部关税规则反复变动接近失效，导致资金避险情绪升温。 一、细究：哑铃策略如何跑赢市场？ 不过在这场动荡中，港股市场却异军突起。截至4月15日，南向资金月内累计净流入超1600亿港元，此 前单日净流入更是屡屡创下新高。不到四个月，2025年港股吸金程度已经在近十年中排名第三。 细看资金流向，一个鲜明的策略浮出水面："哑铃策略"——同时重仓高弹性科技股与高股息红利股似乎 已经成为资金押注港股的标配。 2025年一季度，港股经历"过山车行情"。 1月：AI热潮推动科技股单月暴涨20%，红利股横盘； 2月：地缘冲突引发恐慌，科技股回调12%，红利股逆势涨3%； 数据显示，热门红利产品$港股红利低波ETF(SH520550)$已经实现连续20个交易日资金净流入，年内不 到四个月规模增长超200%，成为南向资金加仓的核心标的之一。当前该ETF成分股平均股息率7.5%， 中石油、中海油、四大行等权重股盈利稳定。且2025年恒指回调15%期间，标的指数仅下跌5%，最大 回撤不足科技股的一半。 3月：政策利好释放， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a "golden window period" driven by both domestic and foreign capital, with strong signals of bullish sentiment despite recent adjustments in the tech sector [2]. Group 1: Capital Inflows and Market Sentiment - Southbound capital has seen a net inflow exceeding 427 billion HKD this year, marking a historical high for the same period, with a single-day peak net purchase of nearly 30 billion HKD, indicating a clear "buying opportunity on dips" signal [1]. - Foreign institutional investors are increasingly optimistic, with Goldman Sachs noting that international investor interest in Chinese stocks has reached a four-year peak, and Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings forecasts [1]. Group 2: Technology Sector Resilience - The technology sector, represented by companies like Tencent, Xiaomi, and Xpeng, continues to show strong performance, with Tencent's Q4 2024 net profit surging by 30% year-on-year, Xiaomi's automotive business achieving a gross margin exceeding 20%, and Xpeng's MONA M03 model sales accounting for over 50% [4]. - The performance data supports the profitability recovery logic for tech stocks, providing a fundamental basis for related Hong Kong stock ETFs, such as the Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF (159750), which has risen approximately 30% this year [4]. Group 3: Demand for Dividend Assets - There is a significant increase in demand for dividend asset allocation, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a decline in domestic risk-free yields to 1.7% [6]. - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) has shown enhanced "capital attraction" due to its 7.13% dividend yield and low volatility characteristics, making it a preferred choice for risk-averse investors [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to maintain a dynamic adjustment rhythm in investment strategies, with a focus on the Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF (159750) for opportunistic buying during dips and long-term holding of the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) [7]. - A "barbell strategy" is suggested, combining high-growth and high-stability asset allocations, which could significantly enhance risk-adjusted returns, with a calculated Sharpe ratio exceeding 2.5 when allocated in a 60:40 ratio [6][7].

昨天有一篇判断10年国债会上到2.5%的卖方分析，传播比较多，中午我们在《 鸡贼的观点 》里对线了一下，省流版观点就是—— 今年如果10年国债上到 2.5%，博主就把键盘吃了。 今天先聊债券，因为债市日内确实经历了，很炸裂的，从ICU到KTV的行情变化。 原因是好几个小作文 ，这里我就不贴了，一方面大部分真实性都存疑，另一方面上面 打击小作文的意图还是比较明显的， 今天几个聊小作文的文章，傍 晚都被删了......所以，咱们还是聊正儿八经的观点吧。 观点其实上周五都写了，没有变化，下图 ，理财经理小伙伴们可以考虑收藏一下，每当债市下跌的时候，你把这个图拿出来，看看这5条里，是否有根本 性的变化，如果没有的话，就继续让客户放宽心一点。 下午14点后，债市出现了非常大的反转行情，按日内高点算的话，10年国债下了8bps，30年国债下了6bps，这都属于巨幅的单日变化。 事实上，上面说的这些里，这两天的几个边际变化在于： 第一，财新的统计， 3月仅过去不到两周，累计686只拟发行 信用债 中，有76只取消发行 ， 相当于每11只拟发信用债中就有1只取消发行，同比和环比都 大幅攀升 。 这说明债市调整，已经波及到了企 ...

证券研究报告 固定收益报告 关注两会定调，哑铃策略或占优 可转债周报（3.3-3.7） 2025 年 03 月 03 日 中证转债-上证指数走势图 -30% -10% 10% 30% 24-02 24-04 24-06 24-08 24-10 24-12 25-02 上证指数 中证转债 刘文蓉 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530523070001 liuwenrong@hnchasing.com 相关报告 1 可转债周报（2.24-2.28）：科技内部轮动或加 快，转债关注交易节奏 2025-02-24 2 可转债周报（2.17-2.21）：转债估值相对高位， 关注结构性行情 2025-02-17 3 可转债周报（2.10-2.14）：转债估值有支撑， 关注科技主题方向 2025-02-11 投资要点 此报告仅供内部客户参考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 二级市场跟踪。1）转债跟随正股上涨。截至 2 月 28 日，上证指数 周环比下跌 1.72%，收于 3320.9 点；上证转债周环比下跌 0.68%，收 于 378.57 点；中证转债周环比下跌 0.89%，收于 429.87 点；深证转 债周环比下跌 1 ...