Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall capital situation is loose, and with the central bank's 1.4 - trillion repurchase, the bond yields decline. The bond market will continue the short - term volatile pattern, and maintain the bull - market foundation in the medium and long term supported by the weak economic recovery and loose policies. However, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by macro data and overseas negotiation progress and the necessity of adjusting the duration [2]. - For the 2509 contract, it is neutral as the repurchase rate rebounds and the bond futures prices fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the widening of the basis. Short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging due to the medium - term adjustment pressure [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8]. - Economic indicators (monthly update): The social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.95%; M2 year - on - year is 8.30%, with an increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 5.06%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with an increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.40% [8]. - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index is 98.64, with an increase of 0.53 and a growth rate of 0.54%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1751, with an increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.55, with an increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.05%; DR007 is 1.57, with an increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.19%; R007 is 1.68, with an increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 2.35%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.56, with a decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.06%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.06, with an increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 1.06% [9]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts show the closing price trend, price change rate, maturity yield trend, valuation change, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), long - short position ratio (top 20), trading - to - position ratio, bond lending turnover and total position of treasury bond futures, as well as the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds and the treasury bond issuance situation [6][7]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - Multiple charts show the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local bond issuance situation [31][33][36]. 4. Spread Overview - Multiple charts show the inter - term spread trend of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spread of futures [40][43][44]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [46][48][55]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis trends of the TF main contract [54][57]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [62][65]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [70][73][76].

日本40年期国债收益率下跌8BP至3.4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant profit increase reported by companies like Jiumuwang is primarily driven by investment gains rather than strong sales in men's clothing, indicating a troubling trend in the men's apparel market where brands struggle to sell their products effectively [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Jiumuwang expects a net profit of 150 to 180 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 200% to 260% [3]. - The profit surge is largely attributed to investment income, with fair value changes in financial assets expected to contribute 20 to 25 million yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 111.32 million yuan in the previous year [3]. - In Q1, Jiumuwang's investment income grew by 4022.02% to approximately 12.45 million yuan, primarily due to gains from the disposal of trading financial assets [3]. Main Business Challenges - Jiumuwang's core business performance is declining, with expected non-recurring net profit of 95 to 110 million yuan for the first half, down 14% to 26% year-on-year [4]. - The overall men's apparel market is facing challenges, with Jiumuwang and other brands like Qipilang reporting significant declines in revenue and net profit from core operations [4][5]. Market Trends - The men's clothing market is experiencing a shift, with many brands relying on investment income to sustain profits amid poor sales performance [5][7]. - Inventory turnover days for Jiumuwang exceeded 300 days, indicating slow sales and excess stock, while Qipilang reported 206 days [8][9]. - The market is seeing a polarization in consumer preferences, with lower-priced products gaining market share while mid to high-end brands struggle [9][10]. Strategic Responses - Jiumuwang and Qipilang have shifted towards investment strategies to boost performance, with Jiumuwang having invested over 1 billion yuan in transformation efforts since 2020 [12][14]. - Both companies are attempting to reposition themselves, with Jiumuwang focusing on becoming a "men's pants expert" and Qipilang branding itself as a "jacket expert" [13][14]. - Industry experts suggest that brands need to embrace digital transformation and focus on high-end positioning to remain competitive in a challenging market [14].

日本40年期国债收益率下降8个基点至3.4%。 ...

昨日晚间公布的美国CPI数据显示美国通胀回升，特朗普的关税贸易政策依然为现货黄金市场提供避险支撑， 昨日现货黄金市场在美国CPI数据公布后冲高回落，最低至3320.22美元/盎司，最终收盘于3324.65美元/盎司， 本交易日亚洲早盘开盘后市场维持在小区间内震荡，当前交投于3330.00美元/盎司附近。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币政策的 动向和美债收益率情况。 亚洲早盘策略： 现货黄金市场 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间37.560-37.850，操作上可在这个区间内 高抛低吸。 若市场价格跌破37.560美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为37.100-36.800美 元/盎司。 若市场成功上破37.850美元/盎司的阻力位，则可果断跟进多单，上方目标价位有望触及38.100-38.400美元/盎 司。（止损为0.200美元/盎司空间） 交易风险提示：任何投资都存在风险，包括资金损失的风险。该建议不构成具体的投资建议，投资者应根据自 己的风险承受能力、投资目标和市场情况做出决策。 小时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade policies, particularly tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which are expected to provide support for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,330 per ounce, showing slight increases due to safe-haven demand amid tariff announcements from Trump [1]. - Despite a recent rise in the U.S. dollar index, which reached a high of 98.70, the market interprets this as a technical adjustment rather than a long-term trend shift, suggesting potential for gold price recovery [1][3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is likely to support gold prices, as market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite short-term price fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations indicate a potential interest rate cut of about 44 basis points by the end of the year, with a decrease in the probability of a September rate cut from 80% to 53% [4]. - Fed Chairman Powell's cautious stance on inflation suggests that the Fed may remain vigilant regarding interest rate adjustments, which could impact gold prices [4]. - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is critical, as it may confirm inflation pressures and influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The gold market presents both challenges and opportunities, with short-term price movements expected to remain within the $3,300 to $3,400 range [5]. - Long-term factors such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and a trend towards looser monetary policy could provide upward momentum for gold prices [5][6]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor PPI data and developments in U.S. tariff policies, as well as trends in the dollar and bond yields, to identify investment opportunities in the gold market [6].

A股"阳光普照奖"今日发放！ 7月16日，华电新能上市，早盘最大涨幅达到219.8%，最高价达10.17元/股，该股首次公开发行股票网上中签 结果公告，中签号码共有4389234个，以发行价3.18元/股计算，华电新能流通股市值最多时增长了175亿元， 中签者无不受益。 华电新能发行市盈率15.28，低于行业参考值17.84，专注风力发电、太阳能发电项目开发、投资及运营。在电 力板块向好，"反内卷"持续的背景之下，该股受到了资金关注。 与此同时，来自华安证券的数据显示，滚动跟踪近期20只新股上市后的涨幅表现，其中科创板个股上市首日平 均涨幅为210.25%，创业板个股上市首日平均涨幅为223.36%。 超438万户收获大涨 7月9日，华电新能发布了首次公开发行股票网上中签结果公告，中签号码共有4389234个。今日早盘，这400多 万户迎来了大涨，华电新能高开高走，一度大涨超176%，触发二次临停。复牌之后再度冲高，最大涨幅达到 了219.8%，最高价达10.17元/股，每股最大收益到了6.99元，以其25.1亿股流通市值计算，市值增长达到了175 亿元。由于中签人数较多，是A股市场妥妥的"阳光普照奖"。 近 ...

有色金属日报 2025-7-16 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 铜 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美国通胀数据稍弱于预期但环比回升，美债收益率走高、美元指数上扬，铜价震荡，昨日伦铜收涨 0.15%至 9657 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78070 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存增加 850 至 110475 吨，注销仓单比例降至 11.4%，Cash/3M 贴水 62 美元/吨。国内方面，昨日上期所 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 货币政策环境偏向宽松，但短期 降息可能性不高 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡上涨。一方面近期央行公开市场操作净投放流动性，市场流动性紧张 局势有所缓解，另一方面经过连续回调之后 2 年期国债到期收益 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普多次呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔辞职正促使投资者开始为应对通胀上升 的风险进行投资组合保护，原因在于，如果一个更倾向于降息的美联储上台，可能会助推物价上涨，使 得债权人要求更高的回报率以持有债券。 据悉，债券投资者正在通胀市场上为未来几年可能的物价压力上升进行定价。周一晚间，美国5年期通 胀保值国债(TIPS)所反映的盈亏平衡通胀率升至2.476%，为三个月来新高。 在近期对鲍威尔的批评升级之际，白宫开始调查美联储位于华盛顿的历史性总部大楼翻修项目是否存在 成本超支问题。这一质询加剧了市场参与者的担忧，他们担心特朗普政府可能会寻求以"有因解雇"为由 罢免鲍威尔——这可能是其合法实现这一目标的唯一途径。周二，美国30年期国债收益率升至5%以 上，为5月下旬以来首次突破这一水平。投资者在为美国巨大的财政赤字感到担忧的同时，正评估鲍威 尔可能被迫离职所带来的风险。 尽管在短期内，一个更倾向于宽松政策的美联储对股市的影响可能是好坏参半，但这将意味着美元走 弱、美国国债市场波动加剧以及长期利率上升，从而导致抵押贷款和公司债券的借贷成本上升。 一些分析师指出，如果市场参与者认为美联储的独立性正在 ...