Economic Indicators - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in June was 50.5%, also up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May[1] Policy Impact - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the ongoing effects of growth-stabilizing policies, including a series of financial measures announced on May 7, which led to a sustained increase in social financing[2] - The new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone, indicating strong market demand[2] Trade Environment - The easing of trade tensions, particularly following the May 12 de-escalation of the "tariff war," contributed to a slight recovery in the new export orders index, which rose to 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Sector Performance - The construction PMI in June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating robust activity despite a slight decline in civil engineering indices[6] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.9%, reflecting strong demand and policy support[4] Challenges Ahead - Despite the positive indicators, the overall export slowdown may continue due to high tariffs exceeding 40% on Chinese goods[3] - The real estate market shows signs of intensified adjustment, which may limit the PMI's rebound potential[3] Future Outlook - GDP growth for the first half of the year is projected at around 5.2%, with no major new policy measures expected in the short term[7] - The manufacturing PMI is anticipated to remain around 49.7% in July, but with significant downward risks due to external pressures[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of iron ore in China decreased while demand increased in the first half of 2025. The consumption of iron ore reached a record high, supporting the high valuation of iron ore among the black commodities. [2][93] - In the second half of the year, the global iron ore supply is expected to increase slightly, with a total increment of about 13 million tons from the Big Four mines and non - Australia and Brazil regions. The supply pressure is not significant. [2][93] - The demand for construction steel in China is expected to continue to decline, while the demand for manufacturing steel is expected to remain resilient. Overseas demand, especially from India, is expected to contribute more than 10 million tons of incremental demand throughout the year. [2][93] - The trading logic in the second half of the year mainly involves the Fed's interest - rate cuts and global tariff policies. The fundamentals of iron ore supply and demand will remain neutral, and the Platts iron ore price will fluctuate widely between $90 - $105. [3][94] - The trading strategy suggests speculatively buying at the bottom of the iron ore price and for spot enterprises to hedge at high prices. [5][95] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1.1 Production and Sales of the Big Four Mines in H1 2025 - The total production of the Big Four mines in the first half of the year was estimated at 545 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% (2 million tons), and the total shipment was 544 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% (0.6 million tons). The overall production and sales were lower than market expectations. [12] - In the second half of the year, the production may accelerate, with the increment mainly from Rio Tinto and BHP, but the overall increment may be only about 7 million tons. [12] 3.1.2 Domestic Iron Ore Imports - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 513 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% (26 million tons). Imports from Australia, Brazil, and non - Australia and Brazil all declined. [13] 3.1.3 Non - Australia and Brazil Global Shipments - The current non - Australia and Brazil global shipments depend on the remaining gap in global total demand after subtracting the shipments of the Big Four mines. The marginal cost of non - mainstream mine shipments may be above $90. [29][30] - Australia and Brazil's non - mainstream mines are unlikely to see large increments. Non - Australia and Brazil global shipments are likely to decline. [33][37] 3.1.4 Domestic Iron Concentrate Production and Scrap Steel Consumption - From January to May 2025, domestic iron concentrate production decreased by 5.4% year - on - year (6 million tons). In 2025, it is expected to continue to contribute to the reduction. [49] - In 2025, domestic scrap steel consumption is unlikely to see a significant increase due to the continuous decline in real estate investment. [49] 3.1.5 Terminal Steel Demand - The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the infrastructure may contribute a small reduction. The manufacturing investment remains at a relatively high level, and the demand for manufacturing steel is expected to maintain its resilience. [56][61] - Overseas iron element consumption has been at a high level. India's steel demand is expected to contribute more than 10 million tons of incremental demand throughout the year. [73][74] 3.1.6 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - The total inventory of imported iron ore ports is relatively high, but the low total iron element inventory and the resilience of overseas demand support the iron ore price. The port iron ore inventory is expected to remain balanced in the third quarter. [80][83] 3.2 Iron Ore Market Outlook - The supply of iron ore in China decreased while demand increased in the first half of 2025. In the second half of the year, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is expected to maintain a certain level. [93] - The trading logic in the second half of the year mainly involves the Fed's interest - rate cuts and global tariff policies. The fundamentals of iron ore supply and demand will remain neutral, and the Platts iron ore price will fluctuate between $90 - $105. [94] - The trading strategy suggests speculatively buying at the bottom of the iron ore price and for spot enterprises to hedge at high prices. [95]

Group 1 - The market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3461 points, while sectors like communication equipment, cultural media, tourism, and electronic components performed well, whereas chemical pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, beauty care, and biological products lagged [1] - Long-term capital inflow is accelerating, with a steady increase in ETF size and continuous inflow of insurance funds, providing significant support to the market [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, but uncertainty remains regarding the path of potential rate cuts, which could significantly boost global risk appetite if clear signals are released [1] Group 2 - The three major indices in the market experienced a collective pullback, but the Shanghai Composite Index remains above the 5-day moving average, indicating a stabilizing upward trend [2] - With ongoing policies aimed at stabilizing growth, steady progress in infrastructure investment, and effective consumer stimulus policies, the macroeconomic recovery trend is becoming clearer [2] - The likelihood of a systemic large-scale adjustment in the market is relatively low due to enhanced policy support for stable capital market operations and reasonable liquidity [2]

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The commodity market saw an overall increase of 2.29% last week, with significant gains in the energy sector at 4.11% [1] - Agricultural products and black metals rose by 2.10% and 0.91% respectively, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals experienced declines of 1.76% and 0.09% [1] Group 2: Specific Commodity Movements - Crude oil, methanol, and short fibers had the highest closing price increases at 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively [1] - Precious metals like gold, pulp, and silver saw notable declines of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Influencing Factors - The evolving situation in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, is expected to influence short-term asset pricing and market direction [1] - There are expectations of Iranian responses that could impact energy prices, with a focus on monitoring implied volatility in energy markets and offshore dollar liquidity [1] Group 4: Precious Metals and Investment Trends - International gold prices are stabilizing at high levels, supported by dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials and rising expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - Geopolitical tensions and ongoing global central bank gold purchases continue to provide support for gold prices, while silver is affected by fluctuations in manufacturing data [1] Group 5: Non-Ferrous Metals and Market Dynamics - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with copper prices stabilizing due to tight overseas inventories and ongoing global investment in new energy [1] - Aluminum prices are supported near the cost line for electrolytic aluminum, with market attention on electricity costs and inventory depletion [1] Group 6: Black Metals and Policy Impacts - Steel futures are rebounding, driven by expectations of "stabilizing growth" policies and production restrictions in Tangshan [1] - Iron ore prices are influenced by seasonal rainfall in Brazil, leading to decreased port inventories and price stabilization alongside steel [1] Group 7: Energy Sector Developments - Crude oil futures have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and unexpected declines in U.S. oil inventories [1] - OPEC+ production cuts are being effectively implemented, with positive expectations for summer oil demand driving prices higher [1] Group 8: Chemical and Agricultural Products - The chemical sector is generally strong, buoyed by rising energy prices, with methanol, PTA, and fuel oil seeing price increases [1] - Agricultural products show a mixed performance, with oilseeds and oils experiencing strength due to domestic production cuts and policy support, while corn faces pressure from import competition [1]

Market Overview - The commodity market saw an overall increase of 2.29% last week, with significant gains in the energy sector at 4.11% [1] - Agricultural products and black metals rose by 2.10% and 0.91% respectively, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals experienced declines of 1.76% and 0.09% [1] Specific Commodity Performance - Crude oil, methanol, and short fibers had the highest closing price increases at 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively [1] - Precious metals like gold, pulp, and silver saw notable declines of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1] Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - There was a decrease in capital flow, primarily influenced by outflows from precious metals [1] - The evolving situation in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, is expected to impact short-term asset pricing and market dynamics [1] Energy Sector Insights - Oil prices surged due to tensions in the Middle East and a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories, with OPEC+ effectively executing production cuts [1] - Positive expectations for summer oil demand have led to increases in fuel and asphalt prices [1] Chemical Sector Trends - The chemical sector generally strengthened due to rising energy prices, with methanol and other products experiencing a rebound [1] - However, the recovery of downstream demand remains uncertain, indicating a market driven by trading rather than sustained growth [1] Agricultural Sector Analysis - The oilseed and oil sector showed a strong upward trend, supported by domestic production cuts and policy expectations, despite weak soybean exports [1] - Corn prices faced pressure due to import substitution and declining profitability, while the hog market experienced fluctuations amid seasonal consumption declines [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand [1]. - The evolution of the Israel - Iran situation is crucial, determining the short - term direction and pricing logic of major asset classes. There is uncertainty in the short - term, and the subsequent counter - attack strength of Iran needs to be observed [1]. - Risk appetite is under short - term pressure, but the impact is limited with a stable RMB. The implied volatility of energy and the stability of offshore US dollar liquidity should be continuously tracked [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance Review - The overall commodity market rose 2.29% last week. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.11%, while the agricultural products and black sectors rose 2.10% and 0.91% respectively. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors fell 1.76% and 0.09% respectively [1][5]. - Among specific varieties, crude oil, methanol, and short - fiber led the gains with increases of 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively. Gold, pulp, and silver were the top decliners with drops of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1][5]. - The funds in the market decreased, mainly affected by the outflow of funds from precious metals [1][5]. 3.2 Market Outlook by Sector Precious Metals - International gold prices consolidated at high levels due to dovish signals from Fed officials, increased market expectations of interest rate cuts this year, a decline in the US dollar index, and continued gold purchases by global central banks. Silver showed a relatively differentiated performance, fluctuating within a range affected by manufacturing data [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - The non - ferrous metals sector fluctuated narrowly. Copper prices consolidated at high levels, supported by tight overseas inventories and continued global new energy investment, but the upward momentum slowed due to the Fed's interest rate policy and weak high - level consumption. Aluminum prices found support near the electrolytic aluminum cost line, and the market focused on power costs and inventory destocking [2]. Black Metals - Steel futures continued to rebound, driven by increased expectations of "stable growth" policies and the fermentation of Tangshan production restriction news. Iron ore prices stabilized following steel as port inventories decreased due to the Brazilian rainy season. The fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, and coking coal was more willing to follow the price increase, maintaining the resilience of the black metal industry chain, but the recovery of terminal demand still requires policy support [2]. Energy - Crude oil futures rose significantly due to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories. OPEC+ implemented production cuts well, and the market had positive expectations for the summer oil - using peak season, keeping oil prices strong in the short - term and driving the联动上涨 of fuel oil, asphalt and other varieties [3]. Chemicals - Driven by rising energy prices, the chemical sector generally strengthened. Some varieties such as methanol, PTA, and fuel oil made up for lost ground, and the inventory destocking speed accelerated due to some device overhauls and cost increases. Weak varieties such as PVC and ethylene glycol got short - term support, but the substantial recovery of the downstream has not been clear, and the market is more trading - driven [3]. Agricultural Products - The oil and oilseed sector fluctuated strongly. Although US soybean export data was weak, domestic rapeseed varieties rose supported by domestic production cuts and policy expectations, with rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil leading the gains. Corn prices were under pressure due to import substitution and declining deep - processing profitability. Pig prices fluctuated and corrected due to the off - season consumption and the pressure of slaughter, and industry confidence was still insufficient [3]. 3.3 Commodity - Related Fund Situation - Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with the overall gold ETF having a - 1.86% to - 1.95% decline, and the total scale decreased by 1.06%. The trading volume of gold ETFs decreased significantly [42]. - The energy - chemical futures ETF had a positive weekly return of 5.34%, and its scale increased by 2.07%, but the trading volume decreased by 78.24% [42]. - The soybean meal futures ETF had a weekly return of 0.73%, and its scale increased slightly by 0.17%, with a small decrease in trading volume [42]. - The non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a weekly return of - 0.20%, and its scale increased by 1.19%, with a 23.67% decrease in trading volume [42]. - The silver futures (LOF) had a weekly return of - 0.99%, and its trading volume increased by 64.13% while the scale remained unchanged [42].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector experienced a decline of 2.20% last week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel down 2.58% and long products down 2.32% [3][11] - Iron water production increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 90.8% for blast furnaces as of June 20, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.21 percentage points [3][26] - The consumption of five major steel products rose, with a total consumption of 884.2 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 16.08 million tons [3][37] - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 913.1 million tons, down 14.37 million tons week-on-week, and down 28.19% year-on-year [3][45] - The average price of ordinary steel decreased slightly, with the comprehensive index at 3361.1 yuan/ton, down 3.71 yuan/ton week-on-week [3][51] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces increased to 155 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, while electric arc furnace profits remained negative at -357.04 yuan/ton [3][59] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector underperformed the market, with a 2.20% decline compared to a 0.45% drop in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [11][13] 2. Supply - As of June 20, the average daily iron water production was 2.4218 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.57% [26] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces was 54.5%, down 2.19 percentage points week-on-week [26] 3. Demand - The total consumption of five major steel products reached 884.2 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 16.08 million tons [37] - The transaction volume of construction steel was 97,000 tons, down 0.22% week-on-week [37] 4. Inventory - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 913.1 million tons, down 1.55% week-on-week [45] - Factory inventory was 425.8 million tons, down 0.30% week-on-week [45] 5. Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3361.1 yuan/ton, down 0.11% week-on-week [51] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.81% week-on-week [59]

分析人士指出，"以旧换新"等政策支持与"618"购物节的提前启动形成合力，共同推动了5月社零的快速增长。国家统计局数据显示，5月限额以上 单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 东吴证券分析师芦哲表示，社零超预期，一部分原因在于提前启动的"618 购物节"和"国补"叠加，另一部分原因可能在于"抢国补"。"5-6月诸多地 区传出国补暂停的说法，尽管很多省份进行辟谣，但可能还是有不少消费者在此期间抢时间购买以旧换新产品。"芦哲在研报中写道。 记者 王珍 5月中国经济运行总体平稳，虽然投资继续放缓，但消费零售表现亮眼，工业生产也较有韧性。分析人士预计，二季度GDP同比增速有望继续达到 5%以上。 但他们同时指出，国内需求扩大内生动能尚需增强，叠加下半年外贸环境不确定性仍在，稳增长政策进一步发力的概率相对上升。监管层或在三 季度推出新一轮增量政策，以进一步激发市场活力。 5月份一系列数据中，社零表现尤为亮眼。当月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，比上月加快1.3个百分点，创2024年初以来的最高水平。 国家统计局数据显示，1-5 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a broad rally with over 3,500 stocks rising and more than 70 stocks hitting the daily limit up [2] - The three major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.35% at 3,388.73 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.41% at 10,163.55 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.66% at 2,057.32 points [5] Economic Data - Key economic data released showed that industrial added value in May grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 6.4% [7] - Fixed asset investment for January to May saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7% [7] - Analysts noted that the macroeconomic data reflects resilience, with consumer goods showing unexpected growth despite a decline in investment growth [7][8] Sector Performance - The wind power equipment sector saw significant gains, with companies like Wind Power Co. and Mingyang Smart Energy rising over 5% [14] - The wind power sector's outlook is bolstered by a large-scale tender for a 3.3GW offshore wind project in the Philippines, expected to enhance domestic companies' order acquisition [14] - The film and media sector, particularly Light Media, experienced a surge with a 20% limit up, driven by positive market sentiment and strong performance from the "Nezha" franchise [12][13] Upcoming Events - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum is anticipated to bring significant financial policy announcements, which historically have had a major impact on capital markets [9] - The forum will cover key topics such as financial cooperation, global monetary policy coordination, and sustainable capital market development [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second week of June, Sino-US economic and trade negotiations further clarified the agreement framework, releasing positive macro signals. Meanwhile, the impact of heavy precipitation expanded, leading to a marginal decline in the apparent demand for construction-related investment products. In terms of inflation, the decline in food prices continued to widen. In terms of exports, affected by the restoration of North American route capacity and the decline in freight rates, the SCFI index decreased week-on-week this week, while the overall demand in the container shipping market remained stable. In the industrial sector, influenced by supply contraction regulation and expectations, the prices of some industrial products slightly recovered. Attention should be paid to the support of the demand side for the sustainability of price increases. In terms of investment, the impact of the rainy season in the South continued to expand this week, resulting in a slowdown in the release of downstream investment demand, and the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline week-on-week. In the real estate sector, after the impact of the Dragon Boat Festival ended, the transactions of new and second-hand houses increased week-on-week this week, and the trading sentiment improved [4][38]. - For the bond market, the current endogenous economic momentum remains stable, with limited short-term marginal changes. The market may focus more on the rhythm and intensity of the pro-growth policies in the third quarter. Policy expectation games may bring trading opportunities. The year-on-year export growth rate in May slowed down compared with April. The data in May did not fully reflect the benefits of the easing of negotiations due to the impact of the tariff incident in the first half of the month. From a high-frequency perspective, the year-on-year growth rate of port container throughput in early June continued to narrow, and it decreased week-on-week compared with the last week of May. The export elasticity brought about by "rush exports" needs further observation. Domestically, it is the traditional off-season in the second quarter, and there are few fundamental increments, making it difficult to provide trend guidance for the bond market in the short term. The market may focus more on the future policy implementation methods and rhythm, including whether additional consumption subsidies will be added and the implementation time of policy-based financial instruments. Considering the slow endogenous economic momentum in the second quarter, a new batch of pro-growth policies in the third quarter is expected to be deployed more quickly. Around the middle of the year, attention can be paid to the trading opportunities brought about by policy expectation games and potential bond market fluctuations [4][39]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inflation-related - The decline in food prices widened. This week (June 9 - June 13), the average wholesale price of pork nationwide announced by the Ministry of Agriculture decreased by 1.45% week-on-week, with an expanding decline. The vegetable price decreased by 0.09% week-on-week, turning from an increase to a decrease. This week, the 200-index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products decreased by 0.45% and 0.51% week-on-week respectively, indicating a wider decline in food prices [10]. Import and Export-related - The shipping market declined from its high this week, with different trends among routes. The CCFI index increased by 7.6% week-on-week, while the SCFI decreased by 6.8% week-on-week, ending a four-week upward trend. According to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the export container shipping market declined after continuous increases this week, with different trends among routes. Among them, the freight rate of the Shanghai Port to European basic ports route increased by 10.6% week-on-week. The transportation demand on the North American route was stable this week, but the supply of shipping capacity continued to increase, alleviating the previous tight cabin situation and causing the freight rate to decline from its high. In terms of port data, in the week from June 2 to June 8, the port's container throughput and cargo throughput decreased by 1.9% and 7.9% week-on-week respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% and 0.8% respectively. The week-on-week decline expanded, and the year-on-year increase narrowed. Overall, the port operation rhythm slowed down marginally [13]. - The increase in the BDI index expanded. This week, the average value of the BDI index increased by 18.2% week-on-week, and the CDFI index increased by 3.2% week-on-week. The increase in the number of Indonesian coal futures contracts for end-of-month loading in the Pacific market and the improvement in demand drove up the freight rate. The stable and increasing demand for South American grain also supported the freight rate, pushing the BDI to rise rapidly [13]. Industry-related - The price of thermal coal continued to decline, with a narrowing decline. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 0.04% week-on-week, compared with a 0.29% decrease the previous week, indicating a continued weak coal price. In terms of demand, due to high temperatures in many places, the residential electricity load generally increased, and the downstream replenishment demand continued to be released. However, the flood season in the South and the increase in hydropower squeezed some thermal power demand, resulting in a limited increase in the daily consumption of terminal power plants. In terms of price, although the downstream replenishment demand was released, it was mainly fulfilled through long-term contracts, so the port coal price was not significantly boosted [17]. - The price of rebar increased week-on-week. This week, the spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.4% week-on-week, compared with a 0.65% decrease the previous week. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.4%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a continued reduction in production. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 3.7% week-on-week, compared with a 8.1% decrease the previous week, continuing to decline marginally. During the traditional off-season for steel consumption, affected by heavy precipitation in the South and other factors, the construction demand slowed down marginally. The supply contraction speed was relatively slower than the demand decline, so the steel price continued to be slightly under pressure [17]. - The increase in copper prices expanded. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Nonferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.7% and 0.3% week-on-week respectively, continuing to rise. Positive signals were released during the Sino-US negotiation in London this week, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was strengthened, supporting the continued rise of copper prices [21]. - The spot price of glass remained basically stable. This week, affected by the precipitation weather, the market procurement demand was average. Some local manufacturers reduced prices to clear inventory, and market sentiment became more cautious. However, the current supply and demand were basically balanced, and there was still support from rigid demand, so most enterprises kept their quotes stable [21]. Investment-related - The cement price turned from a decline to an increase, mainly driven by the expected supply contraction in East China. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 1.1% week-on-week, compared with a 1.1% decrease the previous week. The implementation of the kiln shutdown plan by cement enterprises in June, coupled with the increase in clinker prices, drove up the cement prices in some downstream regions. However, from the perspective of supply and demand, with the increasing rainy weather, construction was relatively restricted, and the support of demand for price increases needs further observation [25]. - The sales of new houses in 30 cities showed marginal improvement. From last Friday to this Thursday (June 6 - June 12), the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 1.758 million square meters, an increase of 9.5% week-on-week and 10.5% year-on-year, turning from a decline to an increase. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the sales momentum of new houses recovered marginally [28]. - The transaction of second-hand houses increased week-on-week and turned positive year-on-year. This week (June 6 - June 12), the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities was 2.013 million square meters, an increase of 30.1% week-on-week and 23.3% year-on-year. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the seasonal sales rush as the end of the half-year approaches [28]. Consumption - The year-on-year increase in passenger car retail sales expanded in early June. From June 1 to June 8, passenger car retail sales increased by 19% year-on-year (the full-month year-on-year increase in May was 13%), and decreased by 12% month-on-month [33]. - Affected by the geopolitical situation, crude oil prices rose rapidly. As of Friday, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 11.7% and 13.0% week-on-week respectively, showing a strong upward trend. This week, positive signals from Sino-US negotiations, tightened US sanctions on Iran, and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East may have driven up oil prices [34].