华福证券 固 Table_First|Table_Summary 固收定期研究 2025 年 5 月 12 日 收 研 究 【华福固收】短端利率的空间有多大— —兼评一季度货币政策执行报告 投资要点： 风险提示 政府债供给超预期、货币政策超预期、经济表现超预期。 团队成员 Table_First|Table_Author 分析师: 徐亮 执业证书编号：S0210524040003 邮箱：xl30484@hfzq.com.cn 研究助理： 黄紫仪 邮箱：hzy30614@hfzq.com.cn T t 相关报告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 Table_Firs3 e p y r o p e R _ e l b a T | t s r i F _ e l b a T Table_First|Table_ReportDate Table_First|Table_Contacter Table_First|Table_RelateReport 流 动 性 周 报 5月6日-5月9日短端品种表现亮眼，1Y存单利率更是突破1.75%左右的阻力位，下 行接近10BP。5月12日-5月16日政府债净 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在规模高达2.2万亿美元的私人信贷领域中，风险悄然积聚。 散户投资者正成为私人信贷领域日益壮大的力量 这种新型的私人信贷与传统的私人信贷有三个不同之处。首先，常青基金具有永续性，即基金经理会将旧投资的收益投入新项目，而 不是在既定到期日前返还给投资者。其次，投资者可按需提取资金，无需长期锁定，不过每季度赎回额通常不得超过净资产值的5%。 这种流动性有助于解释第三个关键区别：大众吸引力。常青基金的投资者涵盖普通富裕阶层，他们通常希望在需要时能取回部分资 金。阿波罗等公司正寻求将目标受众拓展至拥有401(k)储蓄计划的散户投资者。 私人信贷的支持者常常强调该行业相较于传统银行融资的一大优势：资金的稳定性。正如2023年硅谷银行倒闭事件所揭示的那样，传 统银行的储户在恐慌情绪下可能会迅速撤资，暴露了不稳定的资金来源与商业贷款等难以快速变现的投资之间的错配。相比之下，直 接贷款工具的支持者会投入资金多年，因此不太可能出现大规模挤兑。 但常青基金也有缺点。首先，基金经理无法掌控投资时机。这可能会削弱私人信贷的先天优势之一：在其他人不愿部署资本的时候能 够部署资本。这一点在疫情和2022年加息周期之后 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that international bank credit remains stable overall, with emerging markets and developing economies showing active credit growth, while dollar credit has decreased compared to other currencies [1][2] - As of the fourth quarter of 2024, global cross-border bank credit remained nearly unchanged, totaling $32.6 trillion, with a notable decline in loans to non-bank financial institutions by $248 billion, resulting in an annual growth rate of 12% [1] - Cross-border bank credit to emerging markets and developing economies increased by $67 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, primarily driven by a $47 billion increase in cross-border bank loans to the Asia-Pacific region [1] Group 2 - Dollar credit has decreased, while euro and yen credit have increased; specifically, dollar credit to non-US banks fell by $103 billion, with an annual growth rate dropping to 3% and a balance of $13.2 trillion [2] - Euro credit to non-eurozone banks rose by €67 billion, achieving a year-on-year growth of 8.9%, with a total balance of €4.5 trillion [2] - The report highlights significant changes in credit proportions across different regions, noting that the share of dollar credit to Africa and the Middle East in emerging markets and developing economies rose from 14% in 2014 to 27% in 2024, surpassing Latin America [2]

以下文章来源于LP波谱 ，作者王满华 LP波谱 . 本账号专注LP市场报道。"波浪、谱系"是识别市场的维度，也是定义市场的坐标；此外，波谱（Pop Art）也意为放低意义与史诗的执念，认同商业的日常之美。 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 本次相当于完成首关，而且已经达到基金目标募资额的一半以上。 作者丨 王满华 来源丨LP波谱 5月8日，由原GGV分拆出的亚洲业务Granite Asia，宣布旗下私募信贷（Libra Hybrid Capital Fund）已成功完成 锚定募资 ，规模超过2.5亿美元。 纪源资本向投中网透露， 这是Granite Asia自2023年分拆后开始筹划的新业务，也是Granite Asia 多资产策略的核心支柱。本次相当于完成首关，而且已经达到基金目标募资额的一半以上。 从这一段话中可以获取两个信息，一是投资方向上，瞄准的是科技驱动型公司、以及正在经历数字化 和技术转型的传统企业，这也契合了"GGV"此前的核心投向。并且在阶段上，指向的是成长型、成 熟企业。 之所以锚定成长型企业，Granite Asia也在新闻稿中给出了解释：全球的不确定性中，地区资本正愈 发开始 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the public disaster reduction service center for aquaculture in Qingyuan aims to enhance risk management and support the high-quality development of the local aquaculture industry, significantly reducing economic losses and improving operational efficiency [1][6][30]. Group 1: Service Center Overview - The disaster reduction service center was officially launched in Qingyuan City, providing services to over 1,500 aquaculture households and covering 55,000 acres of aquaculture ponds [3][5]. - The center employs a "offline experts + online doctors" dual support model to offer comprehensive risk prevention services [5][13]. - It is expected to reduce annual economic losses in the fishery sector by over 30 million yuan [6]. Group 2: Technological and Financial Support - The center features a "pond-side laboratory" equipped with advanced diagnostic tools for precise disease detection, allowing for results within 90 minutes [10][11]. - Qingxin Rural Commercial Bank has developed specialized financial products and services for aquaculture, including low-interest loans for compliant farmers [20][22]. - The integration of insurance and credit services aims to create a closed-loop service model for disaster reduction and industry revitalization [29][30]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Future Plans - Qingyuan is a key area for freshwater aquaculture, with a projected total aquatic product output of 41,300 tons in 2024, generating a comprehensive output value exceeding 1.97 billion yuan [8][9]. - The service center plans to expand its coverage to other key areas of freshwater aquaculture and explore services for other livestock such as chickens and pigs [33][34]. - The initiative is expected to enhance the safety supervision system from pond to table, ensuring comprehensive monitoring of pesticide and veterinary drug residues [31].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reported significant effects of counter-cyclical monetary policy adjustments in the first quarter, with stable growth in financial totals and an optimized credit structure [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - The PBOC will continue to strengthen the execution and supervision of interest rate policies, aiming to lower bank funding costs and reduce overall social financing costs [1] - In the first quarter, monetary credit maintained reasonable growth, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirements and open market operations to ensure ample liquidity and support key economic sectors [1][2] Group 2: Loan Rates and Economic Development - In March, new corporate loans and personal housing loan rates decreased by approximately 50 and 60 basis points year-on-year, creating a favorable financial environment for high-quality economic development [2] - The PBOC plans to enhance the implementation of interest rate policies and continue reforms to improve the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), while expanding pilot areas for comprehensive financing cost assessments for enterprises [2] Group 3: Future Directions - The PBOC will leverage monetary credit policy to guide financial institutions in supporting technology finance, green finance, inclusive small and micro enterprises, consumption expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade [2] - The scope of re-loans for affordable housing will be broadened to maintain stability in the real estate market [2]

近年来，邮储银行东莞市分行坚持"投早投小"的耐心资本，采用"看未来"信贷模型对科技企业的精准赋 能，金融活水持续润泽硬科技种子，助力佰特照明等企业从专精特新"小巨人"成长为行业标杆。 目前，该半导体企业已成为中国具备6英寸及8英寸外延片产能的最大企业之一。扩产完成后，预计2025 年产能将增加38万片，年度总产能将达到约80万片碳化硅外延片。 "科创贷是纯信用贷款，无需抵押，支持随借随还、循环使用，且利率优惠，大大解决了我们当时的燃 眉之急，也给了我们持续进行技术升级和革新的底气。"佰特照明董事长王金刚为高效高质的金融服 务"点赞"。 随着双方合作不断加深，东莞佰特有增资扩产需要，为了更好的支持企业的发展，邮储银行东莞市分行 在授信额度上给予了提升。据了解，佰特照明将依托即将建成的佰特照明数字智造总部，将其打造为智 慧照明数智制造中心、高端研发基地。 "看未来"信贷模型助力，浇灌科技产业林 半导体行业是典型的技术密集型和资金密集型行业，企业的持续健康发展除了依赖于研发、管理人员的 创新能力和技术水平，金融机构的支持也十分重要。 为进一步巩固技术优势，吸引和集聚上下游企业，广东某半导体企业于2023年启动了公司 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a mild rebound, influenced by the recent fund regulations that are being digested by investors [1][2] - The new fund regulations are expected to reshape the A-share market dynamics, as fund managers will adopt a more conservative approach to stock selection to maintain their income [2] - The sudden rise in bank stocks is attributed to fund managers needing to increase their holdings in this sector to meet performance benchmarks [2] Group 2 - Sectors that have been heavily bought by funds, such as technology stocks, are facing selling pressure as fund managers rebalance their portfolios [2][8] - The impact of the new regulations will take time to manifest, but the overall trend remains bullish for both stocks and bonds due to a loose monetary and credit environment [5][8] - Despite expectations of interest rate cuts benefiting bonds, long-term bond prices have not seen significant increases, indicating that credit easing is offsetting the effects of monetary easing [5] Group 3 - The recent regulatory measures aim to stabilize the A-share market, reducing the likelihood of significant declines [8] - Investors are advised to focus on longer-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations, as large institutional investors are accumulating positions quietly [8][10] - Understanding institutional trading strategies is crucial for investors to capitalize on market movements and avoid common pitfalls [12][17]

Core Insights - Barclays' research report indicates that private banks are increasingly entering the blue-chip borrowing space, traditionally dominated by Wall Street banks, by providing quicker and more flexible loan terms to high-debt companies [1] - The private credit industry, valued at $1.6 trillion, is expanding its reach to include loans to the highest-rated companies, a significant shift from previous practices [1] - Analysts project that even a modest growth of 1-2% in private credit over the next decade could yield hundreds of billions in deployment opportunities for private capital [1] Market Dynamics - Barclays estimates that the total addressable market for private credit could reach approximately $22 trillion, based on public credit and commercial bank balance sheets [1] - Recent transactions, such as Dow Chemical's $2.4 billion sale of a stake in an infrastructure company and Rogers Communications' sale of a subsidiary for CAD 7 billion (approximately $5 billion), exemplify private capital's shift towards investment-grade sectors [2] - The investment-grade bond market remains effective, with the ability to initiate and price large transactions within a single trading day, contrasting with the slower-moving high-yield market [2] Emerging Trends - Private credit firms are likely to make further inroads into financing high-rated borrowers needing capital for long-term assets, such as data centers [2] - The private investment-grade segment is identified as one of the fastest-growing areas, with alternative asset management firms raising significant capital [2]

从宏观层面来看，房地产繁荣可能带动相关行业景气度改善，从而改善相关从业人员的收入，甚至通过二轮效应带动社会收入和消费改善，在一个以一手 房为主的经济体中，这个效应可能比较明显。 实际上，这个传导机制本质上还是信贷扩张带来的影响。 但另一方面，一旦房价出现调整，私人部门去杠 杆，收入与消费也因此而逆转。 从实际情况来看，美国和日本的经验是，房价上涨期间消费表现较好，房价下跌期间消费走弱。 中国房价温和上涨阶段消费也比较好，但2021年之前房 价快速上涨的阶段（例如2016-2019年）中国消费反而表现欠佳，可能因为杠杆快速上升对消费增长形成一定抑制。过去几年中国金融周期处于下行阶 段，消费增速亦有所回落。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 促进房地产市场止跌回稳是政策目标之一，而需求不足是中国经济面临的主要问题，因此市场非常关心房地产止跌回稳如何影响消费。 要理解房价变化 如何影响消费，首先要理解土地的属性，毕竟房产价值的主要组成部分是土地而非建材。 与一般的生产要素不同，土地带有垄断和金融属性。土地这些 特点导致房地产"买涨不买跌"而且顺周期性很强，房价与信贷互相加强形成跨度较长的金融周期。历史经验显 ...