从发行规模来看，牧原股份该次发行的H股股数不超过发行后公司总股本的8%（超额配售权行使 前），并授予整体协调人不超过前述发行的H股股数15%的超额配售权。最终发行数量、发行比例由股 东大会授权董事会及其授权人士根据法律规定、境内外监管机构批准或备案及市场情况确定。 根据公开资料，作为国内生猪养殖巨头，牧原股份始创于1992年，于2014年在深交所上市，现已形成集 饲料加工、生猪育种、生猪养殖、屠宰加工为一体的猪肉产业链，居国内养猪上市公司之首。Wind数 据显示，自2014年上市以来，其累计实现净利润735.41亿元。 2024年，牧原股份也交出了一份表现良好的财报。去年共实现营收1379.47亿元，同比增加24.43%；归 母净利润178.81亿元，较上年亏损41.68亿元实现扭亏为盈，增幅高达519.42%。对此，牧原股份表示， 主要原因为报告期内公司生猪出栏量、生猪销售均价较上年同期上升，且生猪养殖成本较上年同期下 降。 （文/朱道义 编辑/张广凯） 在港股IPO市场持续活跃、"A+H"上市模式不断升温的背景下，养猪行业的A股巨头，也启动了港股上 市计划。 4月15日晚间，牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称 ...

Market Overview - In March 2025, China's retail sales (社零) increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with a total retail sales amounting to 4.09 trillion yuan [4][5] - The consumer confidence index in February 2025 was 88.4, marking a continuous increase for three months [4][5] - Online retail channels outperformed overall retail sales, with physical stores showing weaker performance [4] Industry Insights - The sports and leisure goods sector saw a robust year-on-year growth of 25.4% in retail sales for Q1 2025, indicating strong demand resilience [4] - The jewelry sector experienced a significant year-on-year growth of 10.6% in March 2025, with gold prices rising by 37.4% [4][7] - The textile and apparel sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.6% in March 2025, with online channels expected to underperform compared to offline channels [4][7] Company Analysis Q1 2025 Performance - New Hope Group and other pig farming stocks are recommended due to the anticipated recovery in the pig farming industry, which is expected to enter a profit cycle starting from Q2 2024 [11] - The company "启明星辰" reported a decline in revenue due to weak downstream demand, but is focusing on strategic collaborations with China Mobile to enhance its market position [14][17] - "新和成" achieved a revenue of 21.61 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42.95%, driven by strong performance in its nutrition products segment [20][22] Future Projections - "新和成" is projected to achieve revenues of 23.94 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.8% [22] - "启明星辰" expects a net profit growth of 40.9% to 38.8% from 2025 to 2027, supported by expanding its product offerings and market reach [15][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued apparel companies such as 森马服饰 and 锦泓集团, as well as home textile companies benefiting from government subsidies [5] - In the textile manufacturing sector, companies like 华利集团 and 申洲国际 are recommended for their potential market share gains amid changing industry dynamics [7] - The jewelry sector is expected to see a recovery in demand and performance in Q2 2025, with companies like 潮宏基 and 周大生 highlighted for investment [7]

Summary of Conference Call on Shennong Group Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focused on Shennong Group, a player in the pig farming sector within the broader agricultural industry [1][2] - The discussion highlighted the recent report released by Guohai Securities on Shennong Group, coinciding with a rise in the company's stock price [1] Key Points and Arguments Investment Recommendations - The investment recommendation for the pig farming sector is based on three perspectives: fundamentals, market conditions, and capital allocation [2] - The second half of the year is viewed as a favorable time for investment in the pig farming sector, particularly due to expected capacity reductions [2] - Key recommended companies include leading players like Muyuan and Wens, with Shennong and Juxing as secondary recommendations [2] Shennong Group's Competitive Advantages - Shennong Group's expansion strategy is characterized by low costs and low debt, which are seen as significant advantages [3] - The company’s pig output is projected to grow from 1.52 million heads in 2023 to approximately 3.3 million heads by 2025, indicating a growth rate of 51% from 2021 to 2024 [3][4] - The company's cost of production is among the lowest in the industry, with a complete cost of 12.4 RMB per kg expected by February 2025, down from 16 RMB in 2023 [4][10] Financial Health - Shennong Group's debt-to-asset ratio is below 30%, indicating strong financial health [5] - The concentration of output among the top 20 companies in the industry has reached 30%, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [5][16] Market Dynamics and Trends - The pig farming industry is experiencing a trend of weakening profitability, with a potential turning point for capacity reductions expected in the second half of the year [5][16] - The industry has seen a significant increase in concentration due to challenges posed by African swine fever, which has raised barriers to entry [15][16] Operational Insights - Shennong Group's slaughtering operations are profitable and less affected by market price fluctuations, maintaining a steady cash flow [6] - The company’s farming operations are concentrated in Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guangdong, with Yunnan being the core area [7][8] Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve an output of 320,000 to 350,000 heads by the end of 2025, with a focus on a model that increasingly relies on contract farming [8][9] - The cost structure indicates that feed costs, which account for nearly 60% of production costs, may rise in the latter half of the year, but the company is still expected to remain profitable [10] Conclusion - The overall sentiment is that the pig farming sector remains a viable investment opportunity, with Shennong Group positioned favorably due to its low-cost structure and strong financial health [17] - The call concluded with an invitation for further inquiries regarding the report and the company's performance [17]

答：您好，公司关注同行业友商的发展，保持开放的心态，向优秀的企业学习经验，努力做好自身经营管 理，与友商共同推动行业高质量发展。谢谢！ 问：现在应该没有像 2019年那种大的猪周期了吗？现在的猪周期应该是窄幅区间震荡，国家通过调控控 制母猪能繁数据，调整猪肉供给 答：您好，作为行业参与者，公司始终敬畏周期、理解周期、接纳周期，不把精力放在研判未来趋势上， 而是专注自身经营管理，坚持稳健、连续生产，持续开拓创新以提升生产效率，建立成本优势以应对外部 市场环境带来的挑战，保证公司经营业绩的长期稳定向好。谢谢！ 问：秦总好，公司生猪销售市占率已经较高，其他猪企在资本的助力下短期内也不会退出市场，请问牧原 未来的增长点在哪？ 证券之星消息，2025年4月9日牧原股份（002714）发布公告称公司于2025年4月8日召开业绩说明会。 具体内容如下： 问：请问公司 1月、2月、3月的能繁母猪数量分别是多少，谢谢。 答：您好，公司会在每季度末的销售简报中披露当期能繁母猪数量。截至 2025年 3月末，公司能繁母猪存 栏为 348.5万头。谢谢！ 问：请问秦董事长，业界您最尊重的竞争对手是哪一家企业？ 答：您好，公司会保持稳 ...

External Logic - The recent increase in tariffs by the US has led to a significant rise in agricultural prices, with the agricultural sector acting as a countermeasure to the tariffs [1][3] - The Wind反关税指数 surged by 11% on April 8, 2025, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors making up the majority of this index [1] Internal Logic - The supply-demand dynamics in the livestock sector are expected to improve, particularly due to the ongoing "pig cycle," which indicates a cyclical change in pig prices [5] - As of February 2025, the number of breeding sows in China has decreased by nearly 7% since early 2023, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [5][7] Policy Perspective - The "Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power Plan (2024-2035)" outlines a comprehensive strategy to enhance food security and modernize agricultural practices, with significant progress expected by 2027 [7] Profitability - The recovery in pig prices has positively impacted the financial performance of livestock companies, with牧原股份 reporting a revenue of 137.947 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.43% [8] - Other companies in the sector, such as温氏股份 and巨星农牧, have also seen substantial growth in net profits [9] Institutional Insights - According to开源证券, the tariff escalation is expected to benefit domestic agricultural prices, particularly pig prices, due to rising raw material costs and the impact of imported meat [11] - Long江证券 suggests that while the industry may be entering a phase of declining prices due to increased supply, the current low valuations present investment opportunities [11] ETF Overview - The畜牧养殖ETF (516670) closely tracks the中证畜牧养殖指数, which covers over 60% of the pig farming industry chain, including upstream and downstream components such as vaccines and feed [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the pressure on CPI due to insufficient consumer demand, predicting a low CPI in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant rebound expected in Q4 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: CPI Core Parameters - Parameter 1: Food - Pork and beef are expected to face downward price pressure in 2025, with pork prices projected to drop from 17 CNY/kg in 2024 to around 15 CNY/kg, shifting from a positive to a negative contribution to CPI [2]. - Parameter 2: Oil - Oil prices are under downward pressure due to OPEC+ production increases and a weakening U.S. economy, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fall to the range of 70-75 USD/barrel in 2025, negatively impacting CPI [3]. - Parameter 3: Core Goods - The "old-for-new" policy is not expected to suppress core goods CPI, which is anticipated to rise moderately supported by further consumption promotion policies [4]. - Parameter 4: Core Services - The stabilization of rental prices is crucial, as rental prices have negatively impacted CPI since 2022, with a projected drag of approximately 0.03 percentage points in 2024 [5]. Group 2: CPI Forecasts - In a neutral scenario, the estimated CPI year-on-year averages for Q1 to Q4 of 2025 are -0.1%, -0.3%, -0.2%, and 0.8%, respectively, indicating a notable recovery in Q4 [6]. Group 3: Macro Economic Tracking - Recent PMI data shows a recovery compared to the previous month, but remains below the five-year average, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment, while non-manufacturing sectors have also seen a decrease [7].

Core Viewpoint - Shuanghui Development reported a revenue decline of 0.55% in 2024, marking the fourth consecutive year of revenue decrease, attributed to intense market competition and declining demand for its products [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, Shuanghui achieved a total revenue of 59.561 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.989 billion yuan, both showing a year-on-year decline of 0.55% and 1.26% respectively [2][3] - The company's revenue from fresh pork products dropped from 48.267 billion yuan in 2020 to 30.334 billion yuan in 2024, while revenue from packaged meat products fell from 28.098 billion yuan to 24.788 billion yuan during the same period [3] Sales and Market Dynamics - Sales volume of meat products decreased by 1.67% year-on-year, with packaged meat products down by 6.11% and fresh pork products down by 4.4% [3][4] - The market for meat products is facing challenges due to changing consumer preferences towards fresh, minimally processed meat, impacting traditional products like ham [4] Inventory and Supply Chain - As of the end of 2024, Shuanghui's inventory was close to 7 billion yuan, which is higher than in previous years despite declining revenues, leading to a decreasing inventory turnover rate [3][6] - The company has been adjusting its sales strategy by reducing low-margin channel sales to protect fresh product profits, resulting in a decrease in slaughter volume [2][3] Debt and Dividend Policy - Shuanghui has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, distributing 4.885 billion yuan in total dividends for 2024, with a payout ratio of 97.92% [5][6] - The company's interest-bearing debt has significantly increased from 2.364 billion yuan in 2021 to 7.924 billion yuan in 2024, raising concerns about its financial sustainability [6][7]

相关产品：农业50ETF(159827) 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 天风证券复盘，历史上的猪周期通常3-5年演绎一轮，而自18年行业经历非瘟后，猪周期有所变 形，每轮周期演绎时长均较非瘟前有所缩短。结合行业产能变化的三要素，即猪舍、母猪和流动资金， 我们可以预测到非瘟后的红利或已基本结束，猪周期有望逐步回归常态，蛛网模型仍将继续演绎。建议 重视生猪板块低估值、预期差。在25年猪价持续低位&成本或难有下降甚至抬升&疫情或有所干扰情况 下，后续产能去化容易程度及复产难度或再度提升，产能长期仍有望波动去化。估值目前处在相对低 位，生猪板块价值凸显。从2024年头均市值看，多股估值处在历史相对底部区间，头均市值或仍有显著 上涨空间。 中原证券表示，2025 年 2 月，白羽肉鸡鸡苗均 2.19 元/羽，环比下滑0.30 元/羽，同比下跌 1.99 元/ 羽；白羽肉鸡均价 3.09 元/斤，环比下滑 0.54 元/斤，跌幅 14.88%；同比下滑 0.81 元/斤。春节后，市场 处于供强需弱的状态，导致月均毛鸡价格下跌。随着成本压力缓解和鸡价的企稳反弹，有望推动养殖行 业利润弹性逐步释放，行业相关上市公司盈利 ...

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,370.03, up by 0.15% [2] - The agricultural sector's performance was mixed, with the agricultural and forestry sector declining by 0.94% during the week [3] Agricultural Sector Insights - The demand for aquaculture feed is expected to bottom out and recover, with a positive outlook for Haida Group [3] - The average price of live pigs in key provinces showed mixed results, with prices in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan at 14.65, 15.62, and 14.57 CNY/kg respectively [3] - The overall financial situation in the pig farming industry is under significant pressure, with a focus on reducing debt rather than rapidly increasing production capacity [3] - Recommendations include companies like Wen's Foodstuffs, Shennong Group, and New Hope in the pig farming sector [3] Chemical Raw Materials Sector - The new materials sector saw a decline, with the new materials index down by 2.54% [4] - The domestic aviation SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) pilot program has entered its second phase, with a focus on green transformation in the aviation industry [5] - The global SAF market is expected to face supply-demand tightness, with a projected global production of 2.1 million tons in 2025 [5] Solar Energy Sector - The solar energy sector saw a significant increase in installed capacity, with 39.5 GW added in January-February 2025, a 7.49% increase year-on-year [7] - The price of polysilicon remained stable, with the average price at 40.0 CNY/kg [8] - Recommendations for investment include companies like Longi Green Energy and Aiko Solar, focusing on new technology and supply-side improvements [8] Coal Industry Insights - The coal market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with the reference price for thermal coal at 682 CNY/ton, down by 1.45% [12] - The metallurgical coal sector is expected to stabilize as downstream demand improves, with a focus on macroeconomic policies [14] - Investment recommendations include companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, which are seen as undervalued [18] Precision Injection Molding Sector - The company specializes in precision injection molding, focusing on lightweight trends in automotive and robotics sectors [19] - The company is expanding its production capacity and has established stable partnerships with major automotive and appliance manufacturers [21] - The projected net profit for the company is expected to grow significantly over the next few years, with a strong outlook for the lightweight materials market [21] Retail Sector Insights - Miniso reported a revenue of 16.45 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 24.84% [25] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence while optimizing its domestic operations [24] - The expected revenue growth for Miniso is projected to accelerate in the coming years, with a strong emphasis on improving profit margins [24]

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 3月20日，猪茅牧原股份将发布2024年度财报业绩。 根据此前的预告，牧原2024年度的归母净利润将达170亿元–180亿元，由上年同期亏损42.63亿元转为增长约5.0-5.2倍。扣非净利润190亿元– 200亿元，由上年同期亏损39.18亿元转为增长约5.85-6.1倍。 预告解释，利润巨幅扭亏的主要原因是报告期内公司生猪出栏量、生猪销售均价较去年同期上升，且生猪养殖成本较去年同期下降。 也就是量价齐升，同时成本下降，使得利润-成本剪刀差重新急速扩大。 这无疑是一份堪称非常亮眼的数据。 "猪茅"牧原的业绩飙升，会是今年猪行业迎来景气周期的开始吗？ 从历史看，每一轮猪周期大约持续3-4年，本质是能繁母猪补栏→育肥→出栏的滞后性引发的猪肉价格波动。 简单来说，当猪价上涨时，养殖户扩产导致未来供给过剩，价格下跌；亏损后产能出清，供给减少又推动价格回升，如此循环往复。猪企业对 应的也有经典的四阶段为：亏损去产能→供给收缩→价格上涨→盈利扩产。 自2003年以来，中国生猪产业大致经历了六轮完整周期。 其中，在由非洲猪瘟引发的第五轮超级 ...