Group 1: Market Performance - The US stock market showed strong performance with all three major indices closing higher, driven by a rebound in large tech stocks and rising expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47% to 44,175.61 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.78% to 6,389.45 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.98% to 21,450.02 points, marking a new closing high [1] - For the week, the Dow gained 1.35%, the S&P 500 rose 2.43%, and the Nasdaq surged 3.87%, achieving the best weekly performance since July 2020 [1] Group 2: Technology Sector Highlights - The technology sector led the market, with the US Technology Seven Giants Index rising by 1.52% [2] - Apple Inc. saw a notable increase of 4.24%, closing at $229.35, its highest since March 10, with a weekly gain of 13.33%, the largest in over five years [2] - Other tech giants also performed well, with Google up 2.44%, Tesla up 2.29%, and Nvidia rising 1.07% to $182.70, achieving a market cap of $4.455 trillion [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Apple announced a new $100 billion investment in the US and is advancing its "American Manufacturing Plan," receiving support from the Trump administration regarding chip and semiconductor tariffs [2] - Tesla received approval for a rideshare license in Texas, paving the way for its autonomous taxi service [6] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) committed to providing up to $1 billion in discounts to US government agencies by 2028 to support modernization and AI applications [6] Group 4: Economic and Trade Concerns - The National Retail Federation reported an 8.4% year-over-year decline in US imports in June due to tariff increases, with expectations of a 5.6% decline in imports for the entire year of 2025 [5] - Major US automakers, including Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, reported significant losses due to tariffs, predicting a total profit loss of $7 billion for the automotive industry by 2025 [5]

五年期预期创三月来新高，关税阴影成关键变量 短期冲击与长期结构性风险的博弈 通胀预期的升温，恰好撞上美联储货币政策决策的敏感窗口期。尽管上周美联储会议以多数票决定维持 利率不变，延续 "观望" 姿态，但内部对如何应对当前局势的分歧正日益凸显，而关税引发的通胀争议 成为分歧的核心焦点。 美联储理事沃勒的立场相对宽松，他明确表示，可以 "忽视" 关税带来的通胀冲击，因为这类影响本质 上是 "暂时性的"。沃勒在上周会议中曾支持小幅降息 25 个基点，即便最终决议是维持利率不变，他的 态度也反映出部分官员对经济增速放缓的担忧 —— 在他看来，关税推高的物价只是短期扰动，不会改 变通胀长期向目标收敛的趋势，因此无需为这种 "暂时现象" 调整长期利率路径。 与沃勒形成对比的是博斯蒂克的谨慎态度。博斯蒂克虽表示 "仍预计今年会有一次降息"，但同时强 调，关税对供应链的重塑可能带来 "更持久的成本压力"，如果这种压力转化为工资 - 物价螺旋上升，美 联储可能需要重新评估政策立场。这种分歧背后，是对经济基本面判断的差异：沃勒更关注近期就业增 长放缓、消费支出疲态等 "软数据"，认为需要通过降息提振需求；博斯蒂克则更警惕通胀预期 ...

在美联储理事人事变动消息传出后，摩根大通更新了对美联储货币政策的预测，认为美联储将在接下来 的四次会议上连续降息，每次25个基点。 当地时间本周四，特朗普官宣提名现任经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）担任美联储 理事，填补美联储理事库格勒即将于明年1月到期的任期。媒体同日报道，在美国总统特朗普及其顾问 团队寻找下任美联储主席的人选过程中，现任美联储理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）正逐渐成为最有可 能的人选之一。 基于最新人事变动，摩根大通经济学家Michael Feroli在最新的报告中表示，基于风险管理考量，预计美 联储将在9月会议上提前实施25个基点降息，并在随后的三次会议上继续降息，然后无限期暂停。这一 预测代表了华尔街对美联储政策最为鸽派的观点。 人事变动驱动政策预期调整 摩根大通解释称，要让米兰在参议院9月5日休会回来后、9月16日下次联邦公开市场委员会会议开始前 获得批准，将是一项艰巨的任务。 从历史上看，新上任的理事或美联储主席有时会在首次联邦公开市场委员会会议上弃权。但如果米兰在 下次会议前恰好担任理事且不弃权，最终投票结果或将出现三票反对的"盛况"， ...

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者 王晓莹 近日，美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）再次顶住来自总统特朗普的降息压力、连续第五次决定维持利率 不变后，这个机构最近出现了令人瞩目的人事变动：阿德里亚娜·库格勒突然宣布辞去理事职务，重返 乔治敦大学任教。经过几天的舆论猜测后，特朗普7日提名白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰填补库 格勒留下的的空缺。他近日还表示，已把美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选范围缩小到了4人。 库格勒在8月1日突然宣布离职消息，时机微妙激起舆论涟漪。此前，美联储刚在7月30日宣布将联邦基 金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第五次决定维持利率不 变，而最近这次议息会议也是30多年来首次出现2名美联储理事同时在有关利率决策的投票中表达不同 意见，并且还有一名理事缺席会议，此人正是库格勒。 对于继续维持利率不变的决定，美联储公开市场委员会发布公告说，尽管净出口波动继续影响数据，但 近期指标显示上半年经济活动放缓，失业率依然维持在低位，就业市场条件依然稳固，通胀仍处于较高 水平。经济前景的不确定性依然处于高位，委员会致力于实现充分就业并让通胀回落至2%的目标。 鲍威尔在7月30日 ...

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者 王晓莹 近日，美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）再次顶住来自总统特朗普的降息压力、连续第五次决定维持利率不变后，这个机构最近出现了令 人瞩目的人事变动：阿德里亚娜·库格勒突然宣布辞去理事职务，重返乔治敦大学任教。经过几天的舆论猜测后，特朗普7日提名白宫经 济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰填补库格勒留下的的空缺。他近日还表示，已把美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选范围缩小到了4人。 辞职的库格勒（左）与特朗普新提名的斯蒂芬·米兰 辞职时机微妙 对于继续维持利率不变的决定，美联储公开市场委员会发布公告说，尽管净出口波动继续影响数据，但近期指标显示上半年经济活动放 缓，失业率依然维持在低位，就业市场条件依然稳固，通胀仍处于较高水平。经济前景的不确定性依然处于高位，委员会致力于实现充 分就业并让通胀回落至2%的目标。 鲍威尔在7月30日举行的记者会上表示，实施适度约束性的货币政策看起来是合适的。他说，美联储尚未就9月份货币政策作出决定，这 取决于下一次议息会议前公布的就业和通胀等数据。 美联储的最新决定符合市场预期，但不符合特朗普的预期。自今年1月份的议息会议以来，美联储连续维持利率不变。这遭到特朗普以及 部分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy shows mixed trends with some indicators like GDP growth having slight fluctuations while trade maintains an upward - positive momentum [1][2] - The global commodity market is influenced by multiple factors such as central bank policies, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical situations, leading to different trends in various commodities [4][5][9] - The financial market presents complex characteristics including bond market fluctuations, exchange rate changes, and the potential of capital market support for科创 enterprises [19][24][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, both showing a decline compared to the previous month [1] - In June 2025, social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and financial institution RMB loans all had different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - In June 2025, CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year [1] - In June 2025, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased 2.8% year - to - date, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5% [1] - In July 2025, export and import values showed year - on - year growth, with exports growing 7.2% and imports growing 4.1% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's trade in July 2025 maintained growth, with exports (in RMB) up 8% and imports up 4.8%, and a trade surplus of 7051 billion yuan [2] - The July 2025 China warehousing index was 50.1%, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace, and new orders for bulk commodity warehousing increased [2] - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a "stable" outlook, and China's macro - policies will continue to strengthen in the second half of the year [3] - There are differences within the Fed regarding interest - rate policies, increasing the uncertainty of monetary policy [3] 3.2.2 Metals - China's central bank increased its gold reserves in July 2025 for the 9th consecutive month, and global central banks' gold purchases are an important support for gold demand [4] - China's July 2025 rare - earth exports decreased 23% month - on - month, while soybean imports reached a record high and coal imports rebounded [5] - The SPDR Gold Trust's gold holdings increased 0.66% to 959.09 tons as of August 7 [5][6] - Dutch International Bank raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3250 per ounce [5] - London Metal Exchange inventory data on August 6 showed different trends for various metals [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased compared to the previous ten - day period [7] - In the first 7 months of 2025, China's imports of some commodities like iron ore decreased in quantity and price, while others like crude oil had different trends [7] - On August 7, stainless - steel and nickel futures prices rose, boosting market confidence [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On August 7, international oil prices continued to decline due to OPEC+ production increase plans, weak US economic data, and other factors [9] - A German energy company plans to purchase more natural gas from the US in the future [9] - Citi predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fall below $60 per barrel by the end of the year [9] - Chevron's oil tankers will load oil in Venezuela later this month [9] - Germany's natural gas storage is lower than last year but replenishment is ongoing [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The Philippines will suspend rice imports for 60 days starting September 1, which may affect global rice prices [10] - Most listed pig - raising companies had a decrease in pig sales volume in July 2025 compared to June, and pig and pork prices remained at a low level [10][11] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On August 7, the central bank conducted 1607 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1225 billion yuan [12] - On August 8, the central bank will conduct 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month买断式 reverse repurchase operations, and analysts expect the central bank to maintain market liquidity through various tools [12] 3.3.2 Important News and Information - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating and outlook, and China's macro - policies will continue to support the economy in the second half of the year [13] - The trading association strengthened the self - regulation of bond underwriting quotes [14] - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased, while gold reserves increased for the 9th consecutive month [14] - In July 2025, China's foreign trade reached a new high for the year, with exports and imports both growing [14] - The mechanism to support small - and micro - enterprise financing has achieved certain results [15] - The government will strengthen the governance of prominent issues in enterprise - related fines and increase supervision of government credit in enterprise - related matters [15] - In July 2025, the real - estate industry's bond financing increased significantly, and the average financing interest rate decreased [16] - The capital market will strengthen support for science - and technology innovation enterprises [17] - Hong Kong plans to strengthen the regulation of licensed money - lenders [17] - There were various events in the bond market including self - regulation, bondholder meetings, and credit rating adjustments [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market showed a generally volatile and slightly stronger trend, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declining [19] - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell [20] - The convertible bond index decreased slightly, with some bonds having significant gains or losses [20] - On August 7, money - market interest rates showed different trends, and Shibor short - end rates mostly decreased [21] - Bank - to - bank and inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate showed different trends, and some bond - issuing and trading operations had specific results [22] - European and US bond yields had different trends [22][23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On August 7, the on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell [24] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Hongyuan's fixed - income research expects the convertible bond market to follow the positive trend of the underlying stocks in August [25] - CITIC Securities believes that the economic fundamentals have limited risks, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation of stocks and bonds in the short term [25] - Western Securities' fixed - income research shows that bond funds increased leverage in Q2 2025, and the duration of most types of bond funds reached a historical high [25] - Shenwan Hongyuan's fixed - income research predicts the 10 - year Treasury bond's trading range from August to October and points out potential risks [26] - CICC believes that the US economy improved in July 2025, and there are potential impacts on the US stock market and bond yields in the short term, but risk assets have long - term potential [26] - CICC's fixed - income research expects the bond market to continue to fluctuate, and credit spreads may follow interest - rate fluctuations [27] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On August 8, 227 bonds will be listed, 127 bonds will be issued, 151 bonds will be paid, and 186 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [28] 3.4 Stock Market Important News - On August 7, the A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with some sectors performing strongly and others weakly [29] - The Hong Kong stock market rose, and real - estate and non - ferrous metals led the gains [29] - MSCI adjusted its global index, adding and removing some stocks [29] - The National Healthcare Security Administration held meetings on "healthcare insurance support for innovative medical devices" with participation from many top - tier institutions [29]

这项数据的上升正值特朗普政府大幅上调进口关税之际。市场普遍认为，这些关税将推高商品价格，进 而抬升通胀水平。虽然部分数据已显示物价有上涨迹象，但学界和政策制定者对这种影响是短期冲击还 是长期结构性变化仍存在分歧。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克在周四的一场线上讨论中表示，他"仍预计今年会有一次降息"，但同时也对 关税仅带来一次性价格冲击的说法持怀疑态度。他指出："我们现在面临的最大问题之一是，这些关税 是否只是短期行为，还是将造成更持久甚至结构性的变化。" 智通财经APP获悉，周四，根据纽约联储最新发布的消费者预期调查，尽管美国家庭对当前及未来财务 状况普遍感到乐观，他们对通胀的长期预期在7月显著升温，引发市场对美联储货币政策前景的更多关 注。 数据显示，消费者对五年后通胀水平的预期从6月的2.6%升至7月的2.9%，为3月以来最高水平。与此同 时，对一年期通胀的预期也从3%升至3.1%，而三年期通胀预期则维持在3%不变。 特朗普关税引发长期通胀担忧 房价、就业与消费信心 报告还指出，消费者预计未来一年房价将上涨3%，而对劳动力市场的看法则出现分化。预期未来一年 失业率上升的比例降至1月以来最低水平，显示就业信心依 ...

Economic Overview - The latest data indicates that the US economy is facing increasing risks of stagflation, with the services PMI almost stagnating and the manufacturing PMI dropping to a near one-year low, suggesting a complex situation of slowing economic activity and persistent inflation pressures [1][4] Services Sector - In July, the services PMI fell from 50.8 in June to 50.1, significantly below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating that the expansion pace of the services sector has nearly halted [2] - The services price index rose from 67.5 in June to 69.9 in July, approaching levels seen at the end of 2022, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures in the services sector due to tariffs and immigration policies [2] - The employment index decreased from 47.2 to 46.4, indicating a contraction in hiring levels and a weakening job market [2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI declined from 49 in June to 48 in July, falling short of the market expectation of 49.5, further exacerbating the contraction trend [3] - Although the output index showed an acceleration in expansion, the new orders index slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction zone, with employment contraction reaching a near one-year high [3] - The price index decreased from 69.7 to 64.8, indicating a slowdown in inflation pressure, yet it remains significantly above the post-pandemic average [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The PMI data reveals stagflation risks, presenting the Federal Reserve with a challenging policy decision in the third quarter, balancing a weakening job market against rising inflation due to tariffs [4] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates in September but could lower rates in October and December, with year-end policy rates projected to drop to 3.75%-4% [4] - The current economic conditions, characterized by slowing growth and a pressured job market alongside persistent inflation, complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [4]

业绩的利好彻底引爆。 Astera Labs股价一度暴涨超34%。财报显示，今年第二季度收入为1.919亿美元，同比大幅增长150%，高于市 场预期，并上调第三季度业绩指引。 受业绩超预期刺激，今晚美股开盘后，多家巨头股价集体飙涨，其中电商巨头Shopify一度暴涨超23%，号 称"小英伟达"的Astera Labs盘初最高暴涨超34%，AI巨头Arista Networks一度大涨超17%。 与此同时，美联储降息预期升温也点燃了美股市场的做多热情。美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利在最新的 采访中表示，美国劳动力市场正在降温，今年美联储降息两次是合理的。据芝商所（CME）"美联储观察"，9 月降息25个基点的概率已飙升至93.2%。 深夜暴涨 北京时间8月6日晚间，美股开盘后，三大指数震荡走强，截至23:30，道指涨0.33%，纳指涨0.83%，标普500指 数涨0.67%。 美股大型科技股多数上涨，苹果大涨超5%，带动科技七巨头指数大幅走高。据最新消息，苹果承诺将在美国 再投入1000亿美元用于本土制造。一位白宫官员表示，特朗普将于今日宣布这一消息。苹果此前已宣布，计划 未来四年在美国投资5000亿美元，其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Board member by President Trump may lead to increased complexity in monetary policy communication and greater pressure for interest rate cuts within the Federal Reserve [2][3]. Group 1: Impact of New Nomination - The nomination of a new board member could result in greater internal decision-making divergence within the Federal Reserve, especially if the new member aligns closely with the White House's monetary policy stance [2]. - The new appointee may advocate for quicker or larger interest rate cuts to meet the demands of the Trump administration, potentially conflicting with Fed Chair Powell's data-driven approach [2][3]. Group 2: Potential Candidates - Candidates for the new position include former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Walsh and current White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, with their suitability depending on their alignment with the Trump administration's economic policies [3]. - Kevin Walsh has more experience in Federal Reserve decision-making, while Kevin Hassett has a better understanding of the White House's economic policy direction, making the choice between them significant for future monetary policy [3].