由于美国宏观经济和就业指标有所改善，美国联邦储备委员会在1月28日结束的货币政策会议上决定维 持利率不变，再次进入观望模式。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会当天发布的公告显示，现有指标显示美国经济前景的不确定性仍在 高位。就业增长持续低迷，失业率有一些企稳迹象，通胀仍处较高水平。从通胀和就业形势看，暂时没 有继续降息的迫切性。当天的决定也与鲍威尔在2025年12月货币政策会议后释放将暂停降息的信号一 致。 鲍威尔在28日举行的记者会上表示，虽然新增就业岗位数量依然处于低位，但失业率已经显现出一些企 稳迹象，通胀则依然在一定程度上处于高位。 鲍威尔对通胀形势相对乐观。他说，虽然核心通胀在去年12月很可能达到3%水平，但这大体反映了关 税导致的商品价格上涨，服务行业的通胀回落则在继续。 曾长期在美联储任职的耶鲁大学管理学院教授威廉·英格利希认为，除非有重大意外，美联储很可能会 在一段时间内保持观望。 高盛集团资产管理部门固定收益和流动性解决方案业务全球共同负责人凯·黑格表示，美联储很可能会 暂停降息，但受通胀回落等因素影响，预计美联储将在今年晚些时候重启降息。 安永会计师事务所全球战略咨询部门首席经济学家格雷戈 ...

当地时间1月29日晚，美国总统特朗普表示，他计划于当地时间30日上午公布下一任美联储主席的人选。 此前，特朗普曾表示，美联储下一任主席将"干得不错"，而美联储目前利率"高得不可接受"。特朗普29日早些时候还在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威 尔"再次拒绝降息"，并声称美国利率应该在世界上处于最低水平。 此前一天，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变。在发布会上，鲍威尔没有就下一步利率走向 给出明确回应，称美联储未来的货币政策决定将基于新数据。 不满货币政策 特朗普多次威胁解职鲍威尔 根据美国法定程序，美联储主席由美国总统提名人选，经国会参议院批准后任职。鲍威尔在特朗普首个总统任期内被提名为美联储主席，于2018年2月上 任，后在拜登政府时期获得提名连任，其任期将于今年5月15日结束。特朗普2025年初重返白宫以来，多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔，并威胁解除 鲍威尔职务。 美国司法部本月9日向美联储送达传票，威胁就鲍威尔2025年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事诉讼。调查聚焦于美联储办公楼翻新项目的成本超支 问题，检方称怀疑鲍威尔作证时"撒谎"。鲍 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.11%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.13% and 0.72% respectively [2][3] - Most large tech stocks saw gains, although the Wind US Tech Seven Giants Index dropped by 0.81% [5][6] Group 2: Company Performance - Apple reported record revenue of $143.76 billion for Q1 of fiscal year 2026, a 16% year-over-year increase, with iPhone revenue reaching $85.27 billion, also a record high [5] - Microsoft shares plummeted nearly 10%, significantly impacting the tech sector [5][6] Group 3: Commodity Prices - International gold and silver prices experienced a sharp decline before quickly rebounding, with gold prices briefly falling below $5,200 per ounce and silver below $110 per ounce [8][9] - As of January 30, gold was priced at $5,382.127 per ounce, down 0.66%, while COMEX gold futures rose by 1.60% to $5,425.5 per ounce [9]

美国总统特朗普在29日举行的内阁会议上表示，他将在下周公布美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席的提名 人选。 鲍威尔在特朗普首个总统任期内被提名为美联储主席，于2018年2月上任，后在拜登政府时期获得提名 连任，其任期将于今年5月15日结束。 特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔，并威胁解除鲍威尔职务。 根据美国法定程序，美联储主席由美国总统提名人选，经国会参议院批准后任职。 （文章来源：新华财经） 特朗普当天早些时候在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威尔"再次拒绝降息"，并声称美国利率应该在世界 上处于最低水平。 特朗普还称，美联储下一任主席将"干得不错"，美联储目前利率"高得不可接受"。 美联储28日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不 变。 ...

1月28日，在美国首都华盛顿，美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔出席记者会。 新华社发 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普在29日举行的内阁会议上表示，他将在下周公布美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席的提名人选。 特朗普当天早些时候在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威尔"再次拒绝降息"，并声称美国利率应该在世界上处于最低水平。 特朗普还称，美联储下一任主席将"干得不错"，美联储目前利率"高得不可接受"。 据新华社报道，美国联邦储备委员会28日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间 不变，符合市场预期。美联储主席鲍威尔会后回避有关自己未来去向的提问，但建议继任者不要卷入政治纷争。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，现有指标显示美国经济活动在"稳健扩张"，但经济前景的不确定性仍 在高位。就业增长持续低迷，失业率有一些企稳迹象，通胀仍处较高水平。 鲍威尔在当日下午举行的发布会上表示，美联储未来的货币政策决定将基于新的数据。 鲍威尔回避了有关新任美联储主席提名后过渡期、近期美元汇率波动和他自己遭受刑事调查等话题的提问。不过，他表示，如 果央行失去独立性，将很难恢复。他本人和同事均 ...

特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔，并威胁解除鲍威尔职务。 根据美国法定程序，美联储主席由美国总统提名人选，经国会参议院批准后任职。（完） 特朗普还称，美联储下一任主席将"干得不错"，美联储目前利率"高得不可接受"。 美联储28日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不 变。 鲍威尔在特朗普首个总统任期内被提名为美联储主席，于2018年2月上任，后在拜登政府时期获得提名 连任，其任期将于今年5月15日结束。 新华社纽约1月29日电（记者刘亚南）美国总统特朗普在29日举行的内阁会议上表示，他将在下周公布 美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席的提名人选。 特朗普当天早些时候在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威尔"再次拒绝降息"，并声称美国利率应该在世界 上处于最低水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% during the meeting on January 28, 2026, signaling a cautious approach amid stabilizing inflation and labor market conditions [1][3]. Economic: Dual Risk Improvement - The U.S. economy showed strong performance in Q4 2025, supported by resilient consumer spending. Indicators such as the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims suggest stabilization in the labor market [3]. - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points since September 2025, leading to a peak in the unemployment rate, reducing the necessity for further rate cuts [3]. - Despite improvements, risks of "no job expansion" remain due to past over-hiring, slowed net immigration, and general economic uncertainty, although productivity gains support economic stability [3]. Policy: Data Dependency, Holding Steady - The decision to pause rate cuts received broad support, with only two dissenting votes from the minority faction. The current rate is viewed as at the upper end of the neutral range, indicating low necessity for further cuts [5]. - Powell avoided discussing political pressures during the press conference and emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence [5]. Outlook: Caution on Rate Cut Expectations - The Trump administration's push for monetary easing could reignite rate cut expectations, with a significant chance of the policy rate falling below 3% within the year [6]. - The administration is also advocating for lower credit card rates and increased purchases of mortgage-backed securities to reduce mortgage rates, potentially applying more pressure on the Federal Reserve [6]. Strategy: Market Expectations Slightly Dovish - The market reacted mildly to the Fed's decision to maintain rates, initially responding to a hawkish statement but later balancing out due to Powell's more neutral tone [7]. - The U.S. Treasury yields flattened, with the 2-year at 3.57%, 5-year at 3.83%, 10-year at 4.24%, and 30-year at 4.86%. The dollar index rose slightly by 0.13% to 96.344 [7]. - The market sentiment remains stable and cautious, with expectations for short-term Treasury GC repos to maintain a range-bound oscillation [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The January FOMC meeting maintained interest rates unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. The meeting was a transitional one with limited impact on asset prices. The report maintains the judgment of two interest rate cuts this year, and these cuts are likely to occur under the new Fed chair [2][7]. Summary by Related Catalog Meeting Overview - The January FOMC meeting was uneventful. Given the Fed's hint in December to slow down the rate - cut pace and recent data such as falling unemployment and high inflation, the decision to keep rates unchanged was in line with market expectations [2]. Meeting Statement - The statement's wording was slightly hawkish, reflecting recent economic progress. It upgraded the description of growth from "moderate" to "solid" and changed the description of unemployment to "gradually stabilizing". It also removed the statement about "rising downside risks to employment", indicating a more balanced risk and strengthening the policy tone of suspending rate cuts [3][5]. News Conference - Powell's tone in the news conference was neutral - dovish, offsetting the hawkish statement. He explained the removal of the "rising downside risks to employment" statement, but later downplayed its importance. He pointed out signs of a cooling labor market and considered labor market data more reliable when there was a contradiction between strong GDP data and weak employment data [4][5]. Inflation Outlook - Powell was optimistic about inflation. He believed that most tariffs had been passed through the economy. The Fed expected the inflation effect of tariffs to peak around mid - year, a slightly later time point compared to the December meeting [5]. Monetary Policy - The current interest rate is in the upper end of the neutral range. The policy is roughly neutral or slightly tight, indicating that the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, but the future rate - cut space is relatively limited [5]. Voting - Miran and Waller voted against the decision, suggesting a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Miran's dovish stance was expected, while Waller's vote might be an attempt to influence the Fed chair nomination [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. inflation and labor market may present conflicting signals, posing challenges for the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy [1] Group 1: Labor Market and Monetary Policy - The primary policy driver for the Federal Reserve this year will be the labor market, with the unemployment rate expected to remain around 4.5% by the end of the year [1] - This level of labor market weakness is sufficient to support two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Regardless of who the new Federal Reserve Chair is, there will be a gradual push towards lower interest rates, even if immediate cuts are not implemented [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - The transmission effect of tariffs has delayed the overall decline of inflation in the U.S., with inflation expected to remain high in the first half of the year [1] - However, inflation is anticipated to decrease by 2027 [1] Group 3: Stock Market Outlook - The outlook for the U.S. stock market remains relatively optimistic, with expectations of good performance throughout the year [1]

新华社纽约1月29日电 综述｜美联储进入观望模式 新华社记者刘亚南 由于美国宏观经济和就业指标有所改善，美国联邦储备委员会在28日结束的货币政策会议上决定维持利 率不变，再次进入观望模式。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会当天发布的公告显示，现有指标显示美国经济前景的不确定性仍在 高位。就业增长持续低迷，失业率有一些企稳迹象，通胀仍处较高水平。从通胀和就业形势看，暂时没 有继续降息的迫切性。当天的决定也与鲍威尔在2025年12月货币政策会议后释放将暂停降息的信号一 致。 鲍威尔在28日举行的记者会上表示，虽然新增就业岗位数量依然处于低位，但失业率已经显现出一些企 稳迹象，通胀则依然在一定程度上处于高位。 高盛集团资产管理部门固定收益和流动性解决方案业务全球共同负责人凯·黑格表示，美联储很可能会 暂停降息，但受通胀回落等因素影响，预计美联储将在今年晚些时候重启降息。 安永会计师事务所全球战略咨询部门首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科表示，由于劳动力市场基本面逐渐走 软，个人消费支出价格指数涨幅预计在上半年仅略低于3%并在年底降至2.5%，美联储今年首次降息很 可能不会早于6月。 达科预计美联储今年会降息50个基点。他认 ...