Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant surge in precious metal prices, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, driven by global financial capital dynamics and geopolitical factors, leading to a bullish outlook for related A-share and futures markets [3][6][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 26, gold prices in London surpassed $5100 per ounce, while silver prices exceeded $100 per ounce, marking a historic high [3][6]. - The A-share market saw the precious metals sector lead with a 7.3% increase, while basic metals rose by 2.73% [3][4]. - Individual stocks in the gold and rare metals sectors experienced significant gains, with several reaching their daily limit [5][6]. Group 2: Price Drivers - Analysts attribute the price surge to a combination of short-term geopolitical risks, medium-term policy expectations, and long-term structural weaknesses in the dollar credit system [6][14]. - The strong performance of platinum and palladium is linked to the overall capital flow into precious metals, as investors seek to capitalize on rising prices [7][14]. Group 3: Company Performance - In 2025, international gold prices rose over 60%, and silver prices increased by more than 140%, positively impacting the earnings of many listed companies [8][9]. - Companies like Zhaojin Mining and Hunan Gold reported significant profit increases due to rising metal prices, with Zhaojin expecting a profit turnaround from a previous loss [8][9]. - Other companies, such as Xianglu Tungsten and Zijin Mining, also forecast substantial profit growth driven by higher metal prices and improved operational efficiencies [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook for precious metals, with expectations that gold prices could challenge the $6000 per ounce mark in 2026 [14]. - The article emphasizes the importance of cautious investment strategies in the current high-volatility environment, recommending a combination of dollar-cost averaging and careful risk management [14].

值得一提的是，美联储议息会议将于北京时间1月30日凌晨3点公布1月利率决议。多位受访专家分析认 为，本轮金价上涨的核心驱动，来自全球不确定性上升背景下的避险需求集中释放。短期来看，美联储 货币政策对黄金的影响有限。 星展中国高级投资策略师邓志坚表示，继续看好黄金。一是需要关注欧洲机构的资产配置策略变化，欧 洲正在对美国资产进行策略性、非短期的调整，美国国债规模过大、泡沫早已形成，机构控制仓位属理 性选择。二是关注美联储政策路径的不确定性，若未来仍然维持减息取向，投资者将继续增持避险资 产，黄金配置需求有望持续上升。 避险情绪集中释放推升金价 中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海、北京报道 1月26日，现货黄金盘中一度站上5100美元/盎司，创历史新高。与此同时，多家机构上调黄金预期。 在市场高度关注的美联储议息会议方面，专家普遍认为，短期内美联储货币政策对黄金的支撑有限，但 中长期逻辑依然偏多。 郑弘指出，短期来看，美联储议息会议对黄金的影响可能偏下行。由于此前2025年12月通胀和就业数据 整体表现较为温和，市场对2026年1月会议降息的预期已降至不足5%，大概率不会降息。同时，在2025 年第四季度连续三次降息之 ...

布达吉安说："我的基本假设是：关税不会在短期内消失。" 进入2026年，美国宏观经济政策正悬在两个致命的"不确定性"之上：一是美国最高法院对总统关税权力 的最终裁决；二是美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。 从本周起，美国最高法院步入长达四周的休庭期，这意味着备受关注的关税案进入了代价昂贵的"空窗 期"。与此同时，美联储新任主席的竞争则来到"白热化"阶段，贝莱德高管里德（Rick Rieder）当前被 视为领跑者。 这两大议题共同构成了当前市场研判的核心变量，全球投资咨询公司BCA Research首席新兴市场/中国 策略师阿瑟·布达吉安（Arthur Budaghyan）对第一财经记者表示，在充分评估上述两大事件的不同情境 后，他的核心观点是"看空美元、减持美股，并对包括美股在内的全球股票市场持谨慎态度"。 牛津经济研究院在本月的研究说明中写道，如果这些关税被裁定为非法，美国有效关税税率可能从目前 的接近12%回落至8.3%。即便如此，预计美国政府将迅速采取行动，通过其他更具持久性的法律途径实 施规模相近的新关税。 摩根大通同样分析认为，由于美国政府很可能立即动用其他法律授权推出替代性关税措施，因此，该裁 决对整体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is currently influenced by geopolitical tensions and the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with significant price movements observed recently. Group 1: Silver Price Movements - As of January 26, the spot silver price is trading at $109.61 per ounce, having opened at $104.32 and reaching a high of $110.06 and a low of $103.26 during the day [1][2] - The recent upward trend in silver prices is marked by breaking key resistance levels, including $96.00 and $100.00, indicating bullish momentum [5] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Tensions between the U.S. and Iran, as well as domestic unrest in the U.S. due to recent law enforcement actions, are contributing to the volatility in the silver market [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on January 29 is expected to maintain interest rates, but future statements from Fed officials may influence market expectations [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Analysts suggest that the fundamentals for precious metals remain bullish, driven by healthy demand for reserves and a trend among market participants to diversify and reduce exposure to the dollar [4] - The MACD indicator shows bullish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 83.57, indicating overbought conditions, suggesting potential for a price correction but overall strong upward trend remains [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 26, the London gold price broke through the $5000 per ounce mark, with other precious metals also rising significantly. The fundamentals supporting the precious metals sector are solid, and long, medium, and short - term technical indicators all point to an upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish view on precious metals trading. However, due to the short - term sharp rise and large inflows of investment funds, there are risks of short - term adjustments, so investors are advised to reduce positions, go long with a light position, and maintain high flexibility [5][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Performance - As of 9:10 am Beijing time on January 26, London gold was reported at $5048 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of 17% and a cumulative increase of 143% since the mid - term upward trend started in March 2024. London silver was reported at $107 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of 50%. Platinum and palladium had year - to - date increases of 38% and 28% respectively [5] 3.2 Long - term Factors - The changing global landscape and Sino - US competition have increased geopolitical risks, impacting the global political, economic, trade, and monetary systems. The resulting safe - haven demand and the need for reserve diversification have continuously pushed up the fluctuation center of gold prices. Trump 2.0's policies have further accelerated the restructuring of the global system, consolidating the long - term bull market for gold [5] 3.3 Medium - term Factors - Trump's radical reform measures have suppressed economic growth momentum in the US and globally. Weak economic growth requires more economic stimulus measures, leading to loose central bank policies and liquidity premiums, making gold prices strong in the medium term [5] 3.4 Short - term Factors - **Re - evaluation of strategic value**: In November 2025, the USGS added 10 minerals to the "2025 Critical Minerals List", including industrial precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium. There is also a risk that the Trump administration may impose tariffs on the import of these metals [8] - **Increased geopolitical risks**: In 2026, Trump 2.0's new policies will shift the focus to the military field, significantly increasing geopolitical risks and adding safe - haven demand for the precious metals sector [9] - **Economic outlook and policy expectations**: The international trade situation has eased, and the Fed has restarted the interest - rate cut process. The economic growth prospects in the US and globally are expected to improve in 2026, boosting the industrial demand expectations for industrial precious metals but weakening the safe - haven demand for gold. However, Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has added market expectations of further rate cuts and liquidity premiums to the precious metals sector [10]

当前政策环境面临明显两难。一方面，通胀仍显著高于2%的长期目标，限制宽松空间；另一方面，劳动力市场边际走弱，使过度收紧政策面临经济下行风 险。美联储需在控制通胀与避免衰退之间保持平衡。 去年秋季政府停摆结束后，美国经济表现较预期稳健，劳动力市场趋于企稳。数据显示，去年12月失业率回落至4.4%。不过，多数经济学家认为，短期改 善不足以改变对政策前景的谨慎判断。 通胀压力尚未有效缓解，而居民收入增长乏力，难以支撑经济内生增长，美联储政策空间受限。 美联储内部分歧亦在加大。一部分官员担忧招聘动力不足，倾向适度宽松；另一部分官员更关注高通胀风险，担心宽松加剧调控难度，主张保持谨慎。 前达拉斯联储主席Robert Kaplan指出，在通胀未呈现明确、可持续下行趋势前，美联储不会轻易启动新一轮降息，政策调整需看到通胀向2%目标稳步回落 的确凿证据。 美联储官员已明确表示本周将维持基准利率不变，市场关注焦点由"是否降息"转向"何时降息、降息节奏如何"。随着通胀回落进展不及预期，市场对快速降 息的预期明显降温，政策前景分歧加剧。 此前市场对进一步宽松仍存期待，但目前主流观点认为，美联储最早或于7月启动降息。观望期拉长意味着 ...

尽管特朗普政府对美联储施压要求降息，但市场普遍认为本周FOMC会议将平淡无奇。投资者的注意力 已从单一的货币政策转向更为广泛的盈利增长和经济韧性，预示着美股市场结构正在发生深刻变化。 摘要今日周一(1月26日)亚盘时段，黄金T+D目前交投于1141.45元附近，截至发稿，黄金T+D暂报 1138.93元/克，涨幅3.08%，最高触及1141.45元/克，最低下探1100.25元/克。目前来看，黄金T+D短线偏 向看涨走势。 今日周一(1月26日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于1141.45元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报1138.93元/ 克，涨幅3.08%，最高触及1141.45元/克，最低下探1100.25元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看涨走 势。 【要闻速递】 随着鲍威尔任期临近尾声及特朗普提名的潜在人选，美联储的政策独立性面临挑战。交易员已定价6月 降息的可能性(59.4%)。市场普遍预期，一旦新主席上台，美联储可能在夏季转向更鸽派的立场。 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 黄金t+d技术面呈现强劲的多头格局。最新报价约1115.5元/克，日内涨幅约0.99%。技术指标显示，均线 系统呈现典型的多头排 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks are easing but still pose concerns. Gold prices are approaching the $5000 mark. The U.S. economy shows strength, but geopolitical uncertainties and potential changes in the Fed chairperson may affect market sentiment. Different commodities are expected to have various trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro - economic factors [2][4]. - In the domestic market, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, which will promote the stable development of the capital market. The A - share market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly final value was slightly revised up to 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years, supported by strong exports, reduced inventory drag, and consumer resilience. The core PCE inflation remained at 2.9%, still above the Fed's 2% target. The 11 - month PCE price index was in line with market expectations, and the market priced the next interest rate cut in June. Geopolitical tensions have eased temporarily, but long - term concerns remain. The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.3, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield was basically flat, and gold and silver reached new highs while copper and oil prices declined [2]. - Domestic: There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The A - share market closed higher with a slight increase in trading volume. The market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $4900 for the first time, closing up 2.09% at $4938.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up 3.86% at $96.22 per ounce. Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties have increased the demand for hedging, pushing up precious metal prices. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks and concerns about the independence of the Fed are expected to keep gold and silver prices strong [4][5]. Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, and LME copper rebounded slightly. The spot market trading was poor, and the inventory increased. The Q3 2025 U.S. GDP growth rate was revised up, and geopolitical risks led to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment. Rio Tinto's Q4 production increased by 5% year - on - year. It is expected that copper prices will enter a weak oscillation in the short term, but the downside adjustment space may be limited [6][7]. Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24055 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The LME closed at $3137.5 per ton, up 0.64%. The U.S. economic data was mixed, and the geopolitical tension in Greenland eased. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly this week, but the de - stocking is expected to be difficult to continue with the arrival of the off - season. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate [8][9]. Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closed at 2717 yuan/ton, up 1.8%. Overseas and domestic news has led to a rebound in alumina futures prices, but the actual supply impact is limited, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the rebound of alumina prices will not last, and it will mainly oscillate at a low level [10]. Cast Aluminum - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22855 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The consumption improvement of cast aluminum is limited, the cost decline is limited, and the supply - side start - up is stable at a low level. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and it is expected to remain oscillating [11]. Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated horizontally during the day and strengthened at night, and LME zinc closed up. The U.S. economic performance is strong, the inflation meets expectations, and the dollar falls, boosting zinc prices. The inventory decreased slightly this week, and the global zinc ore supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [12][13]. Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME lead oscillated. After the decline of lead prices slowed down, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm improved, and some enterprises started pre - holiday stockpiling. Environmental protection control in Shandong and Hebei has restricted the production of some enterprises, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate stably, but the upward driving force is not strong for now [14][15]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose during the day and strengthened at night, and LME tin oscillated horizontally. Geopolitical concerns have dissipated, and the U.S. economic data is strong, boosting risk appetite. The terminal order demand is sluggish, the downstream purchasing willingness is not strong, and the supply has no new changes. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. Steel and Iron Products - **Screw and Coil**: Steel futures oscillated. Affected by seasonal demand, market trading weakened. The output of five major steel products was stable, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory gradually increased. It is expected that steel prices will mainly oscillate [17]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures oscillated. The central bank signaled monetary easing, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The pre - holiday restocking expectation provides some support, and it is expected that the futures price will oscillate [18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment was weak and stable. The supply of upstream coal mines continued to resume production, and the demand of downstream steel mills was weak. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate weakly [19]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal 05 contract closed up 1.50%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract closed up 1.21%. Brazil's soybean production, export, and crushing volume are expected to increase. The precipitation in central Brazil may affect the harvest, and the drought in Argentina has led to increased speculation. It is expected that the soybean meal will oscillate and rebound in the short term [20][21]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil 05 contract closed up 1.59%. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in January, but the U.S. biodiesel policy expectation and the improvement of palm oil export and production contraction support the price. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate strongly in the short term [22].

贵金属日报 2026-01-26 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 1.66 %，报 1121.16 元/克，沪银涨 6.32 %，报 25650.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 5023.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 104.73 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.24%，美元指数报 97.17 ； 美国三季度 PCE 物价指数季度环比年化值为 2.8%，低于预期的 3.5%，三季度核心 PCE 物价指 数季度环比年化值为 2.9%，符合预期及前值。美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价指数同比值为 2.8%，符 合预期。美国 1 月标普全球制造业 PMI 为 51.9，低于预期的 52，1 月标普全球服务业 PMI 为 52.5，低于预期的 52.8，综合 PMI 为 52.8，低于预期的 53。当前 CME 利率观测器显示，当前 市场定价联储今年分别在 6 月以及 10 月进行 25 个基点的降息操作。 【策略观点】 金银价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of gold and silver were extremely strong, hitting new all - time highs. The price increase is driven by concerns about the stability of the US dollar credit and the Fed's monetary policy, and the upward trend has a solid macro - driving force. It is recommended to go long on dips in the precious metals strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1074 - 1300 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 22612 - 28000 yuan/kilogram [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Weekly Summary**: This week, domestic markets saw Shanghai Gold rise 8.07% to 1115.64 yuan/gram and Shanghai Silver rise 11.04% to 24965.00 yuan/kilogram by Friday's daytime close. COMEX Gold rose 7.85% to 4983.10 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 11.98% to 103.26 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.24%, and the US dollar index fell 1.88% to 97.51 [11]. - **Dollar Credit Impact**: The "island - grabbing storm" of the US regarding Greenland has severely damaged the US dollar's credit. European pension funds and a Canadian teacher retirement fund announced the reduction of US Treasury holdings. The long - term US Treasury demand has weakened, and gold, as a substitute for US Treasury bonds, has increased in allocation value. Poland's central bank approved a 150 - ton gold purchase plan [11]. - **Inflation and Economic Data**: The US Q3 PCE price index's quarterly - on - quarterly annualized value was 2.8%, lower than the expected 3.5%. The core PCE price index's quarterly - on - quarterly annualized value was 2.9%, in line with expectations. The US January S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 51.9, lower than the expected 52, and the service PMI was 52.5, lower than the expected 52.8. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and October [11]. - **Market Outlook**: The strong performance of gold and silver prices reflects concerns about the US dollar's credit and the Fed's monetary policy stability. The tightness of the silver spot market cannot be alleviated by the outflow of COMEX inventory. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the Shanghai Gold main contract's reference range at 1074 - 1300 yuan/gram and the Shanghai Silver main contract's at 22612 - 28000 yuan/kilogram [11]. 2. Market Review - **Price Changes**: This week, Shanghai Gold rose 8.07% to 1115.64 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 11.04% to 24965.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX Gold rose 7.85% to 4983.10 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 11.98% to 103.26 US dollars/ounce [30]. - **Position Changes**: Shanghai Gold's total open interest rose 4.9% to 366,300 lots, and COMEX Gold's total open interest as of the latest report period rose 0.1% to 528,000 lots. Shanghai Silver's total open interest fell 0.36% to 708,800 lots, and COMEX Silver's total open interest as of the latest report period rose 0.33% to 152,000 lots [33][36]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of January 23, the total holdings of gold ETFs within the LSEG statistical scope were 2377.2 tons, and the total holdings of foreign - market silver ETFs were 29634.5 tons [41]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **US Treasury Yields**: The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds and the yields of short - term US Treasury bonds are presented in the figures. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is also shown in relation to the real interest rate and inflation expectations [52][55]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: The Fed's balance sheet shows changes in assets and liabilities. For example, the Fed's holdings of securities increased by 19.77 billion US dollars, and the total liabilities increased by 28.79 billion US dollars [56]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI and PCE**: The US December CPI year - on - year value was 2.7%, in line with expectations, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, also in line with expectations. The core CPI year - on - year value was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7%, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [64]. - **Employment**: As of the week ending January 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [67]. - **PMI and PPI**: The US December ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4, higher than the expected 52.3 and the previous value of 52.6 [70]. - **New Home Data**: The annualized value of new home starts in the US in October was 1.246 million units, lower than the expected 1.325 million units and the previous value of 1.291 million units. The annualized value of building permits was 1.412 million units, higher than the expected 1.35 million units [73]. 5. Precious Metals Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The outer - market gold basis (London spot gold - COMEX gold) and the inner - market gold basis (AuT+D - SHFE gold) are presented, showing their respective changes [12]. - **Silver Basis**: The outer - market silver basis (London spot silver - COMEX silver) and the inner - market silver basis (AgT+D - SHFE silver) show their changes [12]. - **Internal - External Spreads**: The internal - external spreads of gold (Shanghai Gold and COMEX Gold) and silver (Shanghai Silver and COMEX Silver) are presented in the figures [83][85]. 6. Precious Metals Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The combined silver inventories of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX, as well as the inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange, are presented in the figures. The COMEX and LBMA silver inventories also show their trends [90][93]. - **Gold Inventories**: The COMEX and LBMA gold inventories are presented in the figures, showing their trends [95][97].