投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-5-29 美联储态度审慎，⾦价承压 价格逻辑： 黄金价格周三北美时段延续跌势，跌破3,300美元关键心理位，主因 美联储会议纪要释放滞胀风险信号，推动美债收益率反弹并提振美 元。尽管美联储维持利率不变，但政策制定者对关税推升通胀及就业 增长放缓的担忧加剧，暗示货币政策将保持谨慎。同时，地缘政治冲 突（俄乌、中东局势）虽支撑避险需求，但美国消费者信心数据超预 期改善，叠加美债收益率回升至4.493%，削弱了黄金吸引力。 美联储5月会议纪要显示，官员因关税对经济的不确定性及潜在" 滞胀"压力（高通胀与弱增长并存）而选择观望，强调需等待政府政 策调整效果明朗。值得注意的是，此次会议早于特朗普政府将对华关 税从145%降至30%的决定。经济数据方面，美国10年期实际收益率升 至2.171%，美元指数上涨0.33%至99.89，进一步施压金价。此外， 瑞士4月自美黄金进口创2012年以来新高，中国香港4月黄金净进口同 比翻倍。市场预计美联储年内或降息45个基点，但当前强劲数据与政 策谨慎基调令短期金价承压。 展望：周度COMEX黄金 ...

五矿期货：贵金属价格表现短期将偏弱势 国信期货：风险偏好回暖与美元强势或延续金银震荡调整 光大期货：黄金多空分歧加剧短期或难以摆脱震荡整理态势 FXStreet网站：金价在多重负面因素的影响下或继续下跌 SP Angel：避险需求减弱金价承压下跌但中国购金需求仍支撑金价 【机构观点分析】 五矿期货表示，北京时间29日凌晨公布的美联储会议纪要所传递出的货币政策信息偏鹰派，与此同时， 关税与贸易风险进一步释放，上述因素对于贵金属价格形成利空因素。美联储会议纪要显示，议息会议 参会者一致认为美国经济前景的不确定性增加，当前采用谨慎的货币政策是合适的。此外，美国国际贸 易法院支持对于特朗普在所谓"解放日"宣布的关税实施永久禁令，而这意味着大部分关税都将暂停实 施。海外关税风险因素释放，美联储货币政策预期表态偏鹰派，双重利空因素下贵金属价格表现短期将 偏弱势。 国信期货表示，贸易司法博弈与美联储滞胀困局的共振，正在重塑贵金属定价逻辑。短期看，风险偏好 回暖与美元强势或延续金银震荡调整，COMEX黄金或以3250美元／盎司左右（沪金760元／克附 近）、白银或围绕32.5美元／盎司附近（沪银8100元／千克左右）成为多空 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown significant distrust since Trump's election, with major indices experiencing substantial declines, but a recent agreement to pause tariffs has led to a rebound in stock prices, although the underlying crisis remains unresolved [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The Dow Jones has seen a maximum decline of over 18%, the Nasdaq over 26%, and the S&P 500 over 21%, with both the Dow and S&P entering a technical bear market [1]. - Following the agreement to suspend tariffs and reduce 91% of them, the major stock indices have begun a strong rebound, recovering most of their losses [1]. Group 2: Political Context - Trump's suspension of tariffs is viewed as a temporary measure to alleviate internal and external pressures, with his approval ratings dropping significantly since taking office [3]. - A recent poll indicated that even after the tariff agreement, Trump's approval rating fell to 42%, reflecting ongoing public skepticism about his economic performance [3]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - The liquidity crisis in the U.S. financial system persists, with a significant drop in the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements from $2.2 trillion to under $200 billion, indicating a depletion of excess liquidity [4]. - Despite the tariff agreement, concerns about liquidity remain, with the market anticipating that the Fed may not lower interest rates in the short term due to inflation worries [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The Dow Jones is currently in a dense trading area, with support at the 40,830 level, while the Nasdaq shows a bullish trend with support at 20,600 [5]. - The S&P 500 has surpassed long-term moving averages but faces short-term pullback pressure, with support at 5,720 [5].

Economic Overview - The probability of a "soft landing" for the US economy has increased as trade tensions show signs of easing, leading to a decrease in recession risks [2] - The US GDP growth is expected to rebound in Q2 due to a decline in imports, with a strong labor market potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][3] - The Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for May indicate expansion, with manufacturing PMI at 52.3, the highest since February, and new orders growing at the fastest pace in over a year [2][3] Labor Market Insights - In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% [4] - The labor market exhibits structural contradictions, characterized by "strong data, weak structure," which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] Federal Reserve Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is adjusting its monetary policy framework to address significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks since the pandemic [6] - The focus of monetary policy will shift from assessing "deviations" from full employment to evaluating "shortages" in the labor market [6][7] - The Fed may consider exiting the flexible average inflation targeting framework due to its limitations in the current economic environment [7][8] Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Recent downgrades of the US credit rating and threats of increased tariffs have led to heightened market volatility, impacting the dollar and boosting gold prices [9][10] - The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds has risen above 5%, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of US debt amid rising interest expenses [10][11] - The relationship between gold prices and US fiscal deficits suggests that ongoing fiscal expansion could enhance gold's investment appeal in the long term [11]

每经编辑｜杜宇 特斯拉涨6.94%，报362.89美元，其市值一夜增加759亿美元（约合人民币5461亿元）。 | -339.340 -- | 03:59 362.840 5 | | --- | --- | | --0-00%- 03:59 362.880 | 296 | | 03:59 362.850 25 17 | | | 541 | 03:59 362.850 | | 800 | 03:59 362.850 | | 191 | 03:59 362.850 | | 870 | 03:59 362.870 | | 314.890 -7.21% | | | 21:30 04:00 | 03:59 362.870 1200 | | 分时量▼ ? 量:8538238 现手:160 额:30:98亿万 03:59362.818 | 148 | | 452 | 03:59 362.865 | | 03:59 362.860 2.35万 | | | 04:00 362.751 2.37万 | | | It if the mode of the model of more and of the below and the ...

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced significant selling pressure, with spot gold prices dropping below the critical psychological level of $3300 per ounce, reaching a low of $3390 due to a rebound in the US dollar index and easing international trade tensions [2] - Despite a slight recovery to around $3308 driven by bargain buying, market attention remains focused on international trade dynamics, US fiscal policy outlook, and Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - Short-term gold price movements are influenced by the US dollar, interest rate expectations, and economic data, with the $3300 level being crucial for market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The gold price faced downward pressure as it tested trendline resistance multiple times without breaking, leading to a decline and breaking the support level at $3320 [4] - On the daily chart, gold prices are consolidating at high levels around $3350, with MACD indicators showing bearish pressure, and the Bollinger Band's middle line support at $3287 is critical [4] - The four-hour chart indicates a shift from a five-wave to a three-wave structure, suggesting a corrective phase, with key resistance at $3320 and potential further declines towards the $3270-$3250 range [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have created a dramatic market environment, with significant highs and lows impacting investors and consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices experienced a sharp rise to a historical high followed by a sudden decline, causing losses for many investors and consumers [1]. - On May 21, gold prices rebounded sharply, indicating a volatile market [1]. - In the first quarter of 2025, global gold investment demand surged, with China's demand for gold bars and coins reaching the second-highest record in history [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The volatility in gold prices is primarily driven by changes in market risk sentiment, influenced by uncertainties in US-China trade negotiations and regional conflicts [1]. - As negotiations progressed and tensions eased, market risk sentiment diminished, leading to a decline in gold prices [1][2]. - The relationship between gold prices and the US dollar is significant, with expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve potentially strengthening the dollar and suppressing gold prices [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that gold prices may enter a phase of high-level fluctuations in the medium to long term, influenced by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [2]. - Investors are advised to approach gold investments cautiously, avoiding impulsive decisions in response to market volatility [2].

上周日，美联储主席鲍威尔在普林斯顿大学毕业典礼上发表演讲，称美国大学为"至关重要的国家资 产"，并敦促学生保护民主。 这一表态正值特朗普政府对高等教育发起新一轮攻击之际——禁止哈佛大学招收国际学生，并削减了数 十亿美元的高等教育资金。而鲍威尔与特朗普之间日益加剧的紧张关系可能影响美联储的货币政策独立 性。 特朗普大战鲍威尔 有趣的是，鲍威尔本人也成为特朗普"攻击"的目标。这位在特朗普第一任期内被任命的美联储主席，现 在因未能足够快地降息而受到总统的炮轰。 特朗普称鲍威尔为"迟到先生"和"重大失败者"， 因为美联储今年将利率维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。鲍 威尔和其他美联储官员表示，在确定总统的全球贸易战不会引发新一轮持续的美国通胀之前，他们无法 降低利率。 特朗普国家经济委员会主席Kevin Hassett上个月暗示，政府将"继续研究"在鲍威尔明年5月任期结束前 解雇他的方法。不过特朗普后来表示"无意"解雇这位美联储主席。 敏感时刻，鲍威尔强调大学是重要国家资产 据英国《金融时报》5月26日报道，鲍威尔上周日在普林斯顿大学毕业典礼的演讲中毫不掩饰地为美国 高等教育辩护。 我们在许多方面都领先世界，包括科学创 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation is mixed. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, and there are concerns about US debt expansion. However, the good performance of the US manufacturing PMI provides support for metals. The Fed may release a dovish signal if interest rates rise rapidly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable with mainly capacity replacement in Shandong and Xinjiang. The consumption of aluminum has a seasonal off - peak expectation, but the weakening speed is expected to be slow. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the current range [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum 3 - month decreased by 18.5 yuan/ton from 2484.5 on May 16th to 2466 on May 23rd. SHFE aluminum continuous three increased by 35.0 dollars/ton from 20020 to 20055. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10875.0 tons to 384575 tons, and SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6750.0 tons to 56070 tons. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.4 tons to 55.7 tons. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost increased by 326.8 yuan/ton to 16670.58 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased by 160.8 yuan/ton to 3627.42 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum was 20298 yuan/ton, an increase of 166 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average price of Nanchu spot aluminum was 20186 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton from last week [4] Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, the macro - situation is mixed, supply is stable, and consumption has a slow - weakening trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the current range [7] Industry News - In March 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 616.09 million tons, consumption was 588.36 million tons, with a supply surplus of 27.72 million tons. From January to March 2025, the production was 1797.83 million tons, consumption was 1743.96 million tons, with a supply surplus of 53.87 million tons. Guangyuan Economic Development Zone has gathered over 90 aluminum - related enterprises. In April 2025, China exported 52 million tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative export was 188 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7% [8][9] Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, etc., which are used to show the price, ratio, premium, cost - profit, and inventory changes of aluminum [10][11][14]

Group 1: Market Trends and Drivers - The relationship between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields exhibits a "see-saw effect," with rising yields due to long-term U.S. deficit concerns, yet gold prices are strengthening, indicating deep-seated market anxiety about the U.S. dollar's credit system [1] - Despite the upward pressure on gold prices from rising Treasury yields, concerns over inflation and debt default risks are driving gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Gold investment is complex due to its multiple attributes as a commodity, currency, and safe-haven asset; margin trading in the Shanghai gold futures market allows investors to leverage their positions, but this can amplify both gains and losses [3] - As of May 23, 2025, the price difference between London and Shanghai gold indicates a structural opportunity, with a spread of 12.9% requiring real-time monitoring of exchange rates and capital flow policies [3] Group 3: Risk Assessment - Current risks in the gold market can be summarized as three uncertainties: potential hawkish shifts in Federal Reserve policy, U.S. government debt issues leading to reduced safe-haven demand, and decreased physical demand from emerging market central banks [5] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices faced profit-taking pressure after reaching $3,300.80, indicating volatility in high price regions [5] Group 4: Historical Data Comparison - Comparing current gold prices with historical cycles reveals significant differences; the current support logic for gold is more diversified than in 2011, with low opportunity costs for holding gold as indicated by TIPS yields [6] Group 5: Structural Changes in the Market - The development of the Shanghai gold market highlights structural changes, with daily trading volumes increasing from under 50 tons in 2011 to over 300 tons in 2025, reflecting the rise of Asian market pricing power [8] Group 6: Conclusion and Navigation - Investors need a "multi-dimensional compass" to navigate the current gold market, focusing on macro indicators like Federal Reserve decisions and micro signals such as the Shanghai-London price spread [9] - Risk managers should assess the volatility contribution of gold assets in their portfolios to avoid excessive exposure to a single asset [9]