他们表示，特朗普政府的行动使美联储抗击通胀的信誉受到威胁，给金融市场注入一种新的重大风险。 而只要这种风险不消除，交易员很可能会让美国国债收益率维持在本来应有水平之上，进而抬高抵押贷 款、企业贷款以及其他形式信贷的成本。 "市场会因为美联储成为不稳定来源而变得非常紧张，"Gregory Peters表示。他是PGIM Fixed Income的 联席首席投资官，负责管理约9000亿美元资产。 他将特朗普政府最新一轮的施压行动——周日传出司法部威胁起诉美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，比作足 球比赛中的乌龙球。 "这消息来得毫无征兆，而且毫无疑问会造成避险，"他说。这"再次动摇了制度规范，并将产生中长期 影响"。 尽管通胀仍高于央行目标，但特朗普一再敦促美联储更激进地降息，称不这样做正在拖累经济。 品浩（Pimco）、PGIM和DWS Group等大型债券投资机构的基金经理警告称，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普 挑战美联储独立性，与其压低利率的目标背道而驰。 他还以未经证实的抵押贷款欺诈指控为由，试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，该案目前正在最高法院审 理。此外，特朗普任命一名白宫顾问进入美联储理事会，而此人主张的货币政策宽松程度 ...

Group 1 - The core issue highlighted is the increasing number of American households unable to pay their energy bills, with a reported 3.8% increase in households with severe utility bill arrears since the beginning of Trump's second term [4] - The average monthly energy bill for some families has surged to $1,800, three times the previous level, exacerbated by rising costs of electricity and gas [4] - The National Energy Assistance Directors' Association predicts a 9.2% increase in heating costs for American households this winter due to rising electricity and gas prices [4] Group 2 - A significant finding is that one in every twenty American households is severely behind on their utility payments, facing potential collection agency actions [6] - The rising energy bills and persistent inflation have led to increased dissatisfaction among American families regarding the government's handling of economic issues [7] - Experts warn that the Trump administration's proposed cuts to funding for local governments to assist low-income families with energy bills could worsen the situation, as rising costs of electricity are driven by increased demand and higher generation costs [7]

经济学 | 中央银⾏ 特朗普推动美联储改⾰，全球利率路径出现分歧 由于唐纳德·特朗普⼊主⽩宫第⼆年所造成的经济迷雾，各国央⾏正在摸索前 进，全球利率将出现⼀段时间的分化。 彭博经济研究指出，疫情后紧缩和放松的周期正在让位于发达经济体之间同 步性较低的阶段。 G10货币汇率路径正在分化 其预测预计，在未来⼀年左右的时间⾥，全球交易量最⼤的货币的利率⾛势 将呈现⼀系列变化，因为不确定性和波动性（通常来⾃华盛顿）正在考验各 国央⾏⾏⻓的神经。 美联储将⽐以往任何时候都更加引⼈注⽬。其决策者将仔细权衡来⾃美国经 济的各种复杂信号，同时还要⾯对⼀位公开呼吁降息的强硬总统挑选的新任 主席的局⾯。 US Euro area Japan UK Canada Switzerland Australia Sweden New Zealand Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2025 2026 2027 -1 - 100 basis poin Change vs end of 20 资料来源：彭博经济研究预测 彭博新闻社报道 2026年1⽉12⽇上午8:00（GMT+8） 节省 翻译 BE预测美联储在2 ...

US stocks slid on Monday, pulling back from records amid concerns over Federal Reserve independence after US prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) sank 0.8%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also dropped around 0.2% on the heels of all-time closing highs for Wall Street stocks. Rattled markets are turning their backs on US assets after Powell said the Justice Department has subpoenaed the ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relevance and advantages of fixed-term deposits in the current financial landscape, highlighting that despite low interest rates, they offer safety, simplicity, and serve various personal financial needs [1][3][12]. Group 1: Interest Rates and Economic Context - Current fixed-term deposit interest rates range from 1.5% to 3%, with one-year rates around 2%, three-year rates at 2.7%, and five-year rates at 3% [1][3]. - If inflation exceeds 3%, the real return on fixed-term deposits becomes negative, leading to a decline in purchasing power [1][3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Fixed-Term Deposits - Safety is a primary concern; fixed-term deposits are protected by a deposit insurance system, covering up to 500,000 yuan per account, making them a secure option compared to other investment products [3][6]. - The forced savings aspect of fixed-term deposits helps individuals who may lack self-discipline in managing their finances, as funds cannot be accessed until maturity [4][11]. - The simplicity of opening and managing fixed-term deposits appeals to many, as it requires no market monitoring or investment strategy [4][9]. Group 3: Future Planning and Market Dynamics - Fixed-term deposits are often used for specific future financial goals, such as saving for a house or education, providing a clear purpose for the investment [6][11]. - The current low-interest environment has led some individuals to prefer locking in rates now, fearing future declines [6][9]. - Banks continue to promote fixed-term deposits despite low rates due to competitive pressures from high-yield internet financial products, as they provide a stable funding source for lending [7][12]. Group 4: Demographics and Behavioral Insights - Older individuals tend to favor fixed-term deposits for their safety, while younger individuals show varied attitudes, with some preferring to secure funds before engaging in riskier investments [10][11]. - Many individuals may choose fixed-term deposits simply due to a lack of knowledge about other investment options, making them a familiar and straightforward choice [11][12]. Group 5: Psychological and Economic Implications - The psychological comfort of having a secure amount in the bank is significant for many, even if the interest earned does not keep pace with inflation [9][12]. - A stable amount of deposits contributes positively to economic stability, as it ensures banks have sufficient funds to lend, supporting broader economic growth [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall inflation level in China remains moderate, with the 12 - month CPI and core CPI both rising 0.2% month - on - month, and the PPI rising 0.2% month - on - month. The 2026 People's Bank of China Work Conference emphasizes continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The main contract of Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of bottoming out and rebounding this week, and the short - term Treasury bond futures may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [27][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contract of Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of bottoming out and rebounding. From Monday to Wednesday, it declined, rose on Thursday, and moved sideways on Friday. For the whole week, the 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.46%, the 10 - year Treasury bond fell 0.06%, the 5 - year Treasury bond fell 0.15%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond fell 0.11% [5]. - As of January 9th, compared with December 31st, the maturity yield curve of Treasury bond cash bonds shifted upward in parallel. The 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 8 basis points from 1.36% to 1.44%, the 5 - year Treasury bond yield rose 3 basis points from 1.63% to 1.66%, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 3 basis points from 1.85% to 1.88%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield rose 3 basis points from 2.27% to 2.30% [8]. 3.2 CPI Data - In December, the national consumer price (CPI) rose 0.8% year - on - year, with a market expectation of 0.75% and a previous value of 0.7%. For the whole year of 2025, the national consumer price was flat compared with the previous year. Food prices were an important factor driving the larger year - on - year increase in CPI in December, rising 1.1% year - on - year, compared with a 0.2% increase in the previous month [11]. - In December, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, compared with a 0.1% decline in the previous month. Food prices rose 0.3% month - on - month for five consecutive months, non - food prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, consumer goods prices rose 0.3% month - on - month, and service prices remained flat month - on - month. The core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, compared with a 0.1% decline in the previous month [13]. - According to the eight - category classification, in December, food and tobacco prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise about 0.05 percentage points. Housing prices fell 0.1% month - on - month, transportation and communication prices remained flat, medical care prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, education, culture and entertainment prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, clothing prices remained flat, daily necessities and services prices rose 0.4% month - on - month, and other supplies and services rose 2.8% month - on - month [16]. 3.3 PPI Data - In December, the national industrial producer price (PPI) fell 1.9% year - on - year, with a market expectation of a 2.0% decline and a previous value of a 2.2% decline. For the whole year of 2025, the industrial producer price fell 2.6%. Production materials prices fell 2.1% year - on - year, and living materials prices fell 1.3% year - on - year [18]. - In December, the PPI rose 0.2% month - on - month for three consecutive months, with production materials prices rising 0.3% month - on - month and living materials prices remaining flat month - on - month. Among them, mining industry prices rose 0.8% month - on - month for five consecutive months since August, raw material industry prices rose 0.6% month - on - month, and processing industry prices rose 0.2% month - on - month for three consecutive months [21]. 3.4 Capital Interest Rate - After the New Year, the capital interest rate remained low this week. The weighted average of DR001 from Monday to Friday was 1.267%, the weighted average of DR007 was 1.455%, and the average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.632%. The central bank conducted 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with the same amount of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, achieving a full offset [24]. 3.5 Market Logic - In December, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line. The production index was 51.7%, and the new order index was 50.8%, indicating that both manufacturing production and demand entered the expansion range. The service business activity index was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line [27]. - The rise in gold, silver, and non - ferrous metal prices in December contributed to the increase in inflation indicators [27].

Inflation Overview - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in November, marking the highest level since March 2023[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI shifted from -0.1% in November to +0.2% in December, indicating a return to positive growth[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting persistent domestic demand recovery[1] Price Drivers - Food prices increased by 1.1% year-on-year in December, with a significant contribution of 0.31% to the CPI, up from 0.06% in November[1] - Fresh vegetable prices surged by 18.2% year-on-year, while fresh fruit prices rose by 4.4%, driven by adverse weather and pre-holiday stocking demands[1] - Pork prices decreased by 14.6% year-on-year, continuing to exert downward pressure on the CPI by approximately 0.20%[1] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI fell by 1.9% year-on-year in December, a smaller decline compared to -2.2% in November, indicating easing industrial deflationary pressures[1] - Month-on-month, the PPI increased by 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of positive growth[1] - Prices for production materials decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with upstream mining prices down by 4.7%[1] Market Outlook - The upcoming Chinese New Year on February 17, 2026, may create a "Spring Festival misalignment" effect, potentially leading to a decline in January CPI due to the absence of holiday-related price increases[2] - The PPI recovery is expected to rely on sustained domestic demand and deepening supply-side reforms, with infrastructure investments anticipated to boost demand for construction materials[2] - Risks include intensified US-China trade tensions and potential underperformance of China's economic recovery[2]

Core Viewpoint - Iran is experiencing significant unrest due to severe inflation and currency devaluation, leading to widespread protests across half of its provinces, with the government responding with internet shutdowns and strong rhetoric from leadership [1][6]. Economic Situation - The Iranian rial has depreciated significantly, with its exchange rate dropping to 1 USD = 1,420,000 IRR, marking a historical low [6]. - Inflation reached 42.2% in December, with food prices increasing by 72% year-on-year and medical supplies by 50% [6]. - The government plans to raise taxes starting from March 21, raising concerns among the populace [6]. Protests and Government Response - Protests began on December 28, 2022, initially in Tehran and spreading nationwide, marking the largest demonstrations since 2022 [6]. - Reports indicate at least 38 deaths and over 2,200 arrests during the protests, with significant injuries among security forces [7]. - Supreme Leader Khamenei condemned foreign influence and urged national unity, asserting that Iran would not yield to protests [1][3]. International Relations - Khamenei directly criticized U.S. President Trump, accusing him of arrogance and responsibility for Iranian casualties during past conflicts [3][4]. - Trump threatened severe consequences for Iran if further deaths occurred during the protests, indicating heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran [8]. - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that Iran is prepared for any situation but does not seek war, emphasizing a willingness to negotiate based on mutual respect [8].

Core Viewpoint - The era of "easy money" is over, and ordinary individuals must adapt their investment strategies to cope with low returns and inflation [1][3][33] Group 1: Current Financial Landscape - Traditional savings methods, such as placing money in bank accounts or money market funds, are yielding significantly lower returns than in the past, with some funds now offering less than 1% [15][17] - The decline in interest rates is a result of macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating economic activity by encouraging spending and investment rather than saving [7][9] - Regulatory changes have also impacted returns, as previous high-yield strategies employed by banks and funds have been curtailed to ensure stability and transparency [11][13] Group 2: Investment Strategies for the New Era - Individuals are encouraged to explore alternative investment options beyond traditional banking channels, such as seeking out special offers from smaller banks that may provide higher interest rates [19][21] - Diversification is crucial in the current low-yield environment, with recommendations for a balanced asset allocation that includes money market funds, bond funds, and gold ETFs to mitigate risks [23][25] - The "laddering deposit method" is suggested for conservative investors, allowing for a staggered maturity of deposits to maintain liquidity while benefiting from higher interest rates [27] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - Lower interest rates on savings are accompanied by reduced loan rates, which can benefit borrowers by decreasing monthly payments and increasing disposable income [29][31] - The overall economic environment may improve as businesses face lower borrowing costs, potentially leading to job creation and a more stable employment landscape [31]

Core Insights - Despite an increase in non-oil exports such as petrochemicals, steel, and minerals, the actual situation in Iran's foreign exchange market reveals significant imbalances and shortages [1] - Approximately $96 billion in export foreign exchange revenue has not returned to the national economy, weakening the country's ability to withstand sanctions and reducing effective supply in the foreign exchange market [1] - Structural issues, including a lack of an international payment system and transparent fund settlement infrastructure, contribute to the problem of foreign exchange not returning to the economy [1] Group 1 - The Iranian integrated foreign exchange trading system (NIMA) has failed to provide monitoring of foreign exchange fund flows for the central bank, serving only as an information registration tool [1] - Illegal exporters exploit cheap energy subsidies and labor to export final products while retaining foreign exchange revenues outside the national economy, negatively impacting economic security [1] - A significant portion of these foreign exchange resources is either stuck in specific trade destinations or has left the country as capital outflow, leading to a lack of quality foreign exchange for essential imports [1] Group 2 - The export of important national resources does not translate into sufficient funds returning to meet import needs, resulting in inflation and production stagnation, placing a heavy burden on society [1] - The government faces a dilemma of either accepting currency devaluation or confronting shortages of goods [1] - A solution to this deadlock lies in shifting from a passive foreign exchange management approach to an active one, with strict enforcement of rial currency governance to effectively regulate foreign exchange fund flows [1]