国债期货午盘收盘 2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.03%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.04%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.02%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.02%。 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-06-13 政策呵护延续，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀 ...

国债期货午盘收盘 2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约跌0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.04%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约跌0.04%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.07%。 ...

国债期货早盘收盘 2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约跌0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.01%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.01%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.12%。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年6月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：债市表现偏强，有传言称央行询量六个月期买断式逆回购。国债期货全线上扬，30年期主力合约涨0.23%。银行间主要利率债收益率纷纷下 行，幅度均在1个bp左右。央行连续净回笼，对银行间市场短期资金利率影响不大，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微幅上行，仍位于1.36%附近，七天质 押式回购利率上行超2个bp。半年末时点前虽然流动性仍面临考验，但市场预期相对乐观。 2、资金面：6月11日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1640亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%。Wind数据显示，当日2149亿元逆回购到 期，据此计算，单日净回笼509亿元。 3、基差：TS主力基差为-0.040， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap and stable large - cap". The positive news from the negotiation has ended, and the technology sector related to IM has positive catalysts. Domestic stock indices may fluctuate. The US 5 - month CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling short of expectations for the fourth consecutive month. China and the US have basically reached an agreement framework. The US Treasury Secretary said the inflation data was "very good" and there were other related statements [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, the bond market continued to be favorable, with yields of bonds of various maturities declining slightly. Overnight funds returned below 1.4%, dispelling market concerns. Although the equity market strengthened on Wednesday, the bond market was not much affected. Currently, the two markets are trading their own main lines. The bond market is benefiting from the resonance of fundamentals, funds, and the approaching end of the supply peak. Be patient with the subsequent decline in interest rates [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Allocate on dips [4]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.89%, SSE 50 rose 0.79%, CSI 500 rose 0.75%, and CSI 1000 rose 0.63% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.23%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible fluctuating trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows a fluctuating trend [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3878.80 | 0.89 | 69002 | 115340 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2682.40 | 0.79 | 35407 | 44558 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5761.20 | 0.75 | 47295 | 89802 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6144.00 | 0.63 | 112327 | 144803 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.05 | 0.06 | 47080 | 187358 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.19 | 0.07 | 38116 | 150845 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.44 | 0.23 | 55029 | 105150 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.46 | 0.02 | 23987 | 119103 | [12]

Group 1 - In May, the national futures market saw a decline in both trading volume and trading value, with a total trading volume of 679 million contracts and a trading value of 54.73 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 4.51% and 1.55% respectively [1] - From January to May, the cumulative trading volume reached 3.337 billion contracts and the cumulative trading value was 286.93 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 15.61% and 21.33% [1] - The trading performance varied across exchanges, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange reporting a trading volume of 197 million contracts and a trading value of 21.13 trillion yuan in May, reflecting a volume decrease of 1.59% but a value increase of 2.18% year-on-year [1][2] Group 2 - The top three futures by trading value included gold, silver, and alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange featured caustic soda, rapeseed oil, and PTA futures [2] - The trading volume leaders were rebar, alumina, and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange leading in glass, PTA, and soda ash futures [2] - The decline in trading activity in May was attributed to reduced volatility in major commodities and weaker demand, particularly in energy, chemicals, and construction materials [2][3] Group 3 - May is traditionally a low season for industrial and some agricultural products, leading to a decrease in hedging activities as enterprises adopted low inventory strategies [3] - Despite the drop in trading scale, the total open interest in the futures market increased by 16.62% at the end of May, with all exchanges except the China Financial Futures Exchange reporting growth [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's total open interest reached 11.26 million contracts, up 14.99% from the previous month [3] Group 4 - Major commodity prices are currently at relatively low levels, encouraging enterprises to engage more in futures hedging and related activities, which has led to an increase in open interest [4] - Improved market sentiment due to the release of macroeconomic policies and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. has attracted more capital into the futures market [4] - The expectation of a rebound in commodity prices and a stable domestic stock market is likely to drive an increase in trading volume in June [4][5]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 109.045 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 47080 | -862↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 106.185 | 0.07% TF主力成交量 | 38116 | -9837↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.456 | 0.02% TS主力成交量 | 23987 | -1066↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 120.440 | 0.23% TL主力成交量 | 55029 | -7724↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2509-2506价差 | 0.72 | +0.04↑ T06-TL06价差 | -10.89 | -0.20↓ | | | T2509-2506价差 | 0.22 | +0.02↑ TF06-T06价差 | -2.95 | -0.06↓ | | | TF2509-2506价差 | 0.31 | +0.08↑ TS06-T06价差 | -6.49 | -0.03↓ | | | TS25 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures**: Intraday view is slightly weak with mid - term view of range - bound movement. The CSI 300 index is expected to operate within [3820, 3960]. Suggest to exit long positions in IF2506 and hold short positions in MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Intraday view is narrow - range fluctuation for TS2509 within [102.30, 102.50], with mid - term view being bullish [2]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: Steel prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and under pressure overall in the mid - term. Suggest to continue selling call options on rebar RB2510 with strike prices between 3300 - 3450 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Core Logic**: Sino - US dialogue progresses, which injects stability into bilateral relations but also realizes bullish expectations. Domestic policies to stabilize and activate the capital market are introduced, which is beneficial for the A - share market. Market style switches frequently, lacking a continuous upward mainline. In the short - term, the market may remain volatile, and attention should be paid to structural allocation opportunities [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Core Logic**: The Sino - US leaders' call eases market concerns, and the ongoing Sino - US economic and trade consultations reduce bond market pressure. The central bank conducts large - scale net withdrawals, but the inter - bank market remains loose. The May price level is still poor, strengthening the expectation of monetary easing [4]. Commodity Futures and Options Black and Building Materials Sector - **Core Logic**: The overall inventory pressure of steel raw materials is large, and the prices of furnace materials and steel production costs are expected to be under pressure in the mid - term. The downstream consumption of steel is still poor, with plate exports not fully recovered and construction demand weakening. Under the current supply - demand pressure, there is insufficient upward drive for steel prices [5][6][8].

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.03%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.04%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.17%。 国债期货早盘收盘 ...