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中美互降关税,今年首次降准落地丨一周热点回顾
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-17 01:48
其他热点还有:财政发力支撑社融增速抬升,特朗普发布"药品降价"行政令 中美会谈取得实质性进展,关税调整正式实施 自北京时间14日12时01分(美东时间14日0时01分)起,中美同时调整对对方商品加征关税措施。 美方还同时下调或撤销对中国小额包裹(包括香港特别行政区小额包裹)加征的关税,将国际邮件从价 税率由120%下调至54%,撤销原定于6月1日起将从量税由每件100美元调增为200美元的措施。 当地时间12日,中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》,美方取消了共计91%的加征关税,中 方相应取消了91%的反制关税;美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税",中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关 税;双方各自保留10%的关税。同时,中美双方建立经贸磋商机制,继续就经贸关系进行协商。 商务部新闻发言人表示,此次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展,大幅降低双边关税水平。这一举措符 合两国生产者和消费者的期待,也符合两国利益和世界共同利益。希望美方以这次会谈为基础,与中方 继续相向而行,彻底纠正单边加税的错误做法,不断加强互利合作,维护中美经贸关系健康、稳定、可 持续发展,共同为世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性。 【点评】新华时评 ...
做强国内大循环 推动我国经济行稳致远
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-05-16 16:27
Core Viewpoint - The State Council emphasizes the importance of strengthening the domestic circulation to enhance economic stability and competitiveness in the face of global uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Key Aspects of Strengthening Domestic Circulation - The focus on efficient allocation of resources and factors, aiming to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation, while promoting a unified national market [2][3] - The integration of technological and industrial innovation, with an emphasis on tackling key core technologies and promoting the industrial application of scientific achievements [2][4] - The need for a self-sufficient and complete industrial and supply chain, enhancing regional cooperation and specialization to improve resilience in industrial development [2][4] Group 2: Economic Policy and Market Dynamics - The dynamic balance between supply and demand is crucial, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and addressing consumption shortfalls to lead industrial upgrades [2][5] - The importance of a smooth economic circulation, which includes breaking down market barriers and reducing institutional transaction costs to facilitate resource allocation [5] - The role of leading enterprises in driving collaboration among small and medium-sized enterprises to enhance the overall stability and competitiveness of the industrial chain [4][5]
2025年首次全面降准落地生效,资金面有所收敛,债市继续回调
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-05-16 10:57
2025 年首次全面降准落地生效;资金面有所收敛,债市继续回调 【内容摘要】5 月 15 日,资金面有所收敛,债市继续回调;转债市场主要指数跟随收跌,转 债个券多数下跌;各期限美债收益率普遍大幅下行,主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势 分化。 一、债市要闻 (一)国内要闻 【中办、国办:鼓励各类金融机构积极参与城市更新,推动符合条件的项目发行 REITs、资产 证券化产品、公司信用类债券等】中办、国办近日印发《关于持续推进城市更新行动的意见》。 意见提到,加大中央预算内投资等支持力度,通过超长期特别国债对符合条件的项目给予支持。 中央财政要支持实施城市更新行动。地方政府要加大财政投入,推进相关资金整合和统筹使用, 在债务风险可控前提下,通过发行地方政府专项债券对符合条件的城市更新项目予以支持,严 禁违法违规举债融资。落实城市更新相关税费减免政策。鼓励各类金融机构在依法合规、风险 可控、商业可持续的前提下积极参与城市更新,强化信贷支持。完善市场化投融资模式,吸引 社会资本参与城市更新,推动符合条件的项目发行基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金(REITs)、 资产证券化产品、公司信用类债券等。 【2025 年央 ...
碳酸锂市场周报:供给偏多库存高位,碳酸锂或承压运行-20250516
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 08:54
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a weak and volatile trend on the weekly chart, with a weekly decline of 1.94% and an amplitude of 6.13%. The closing price of the main contract was 61,800 yuan/ton [5]. - Macroscopically, the State Council emphasized strengthening the domestic cycle. Fundamentally, overseas lithium mines' price - holding sentiment weakened, and lithium ore transaction prices declined. The supply was excessive with high inventory due to insufficient production cuts by domestic smelters and arriving imported lithium carbonate. The demand was weak as downstream battery material processing enterprises had sufficient inventory and were cautious in purchasing [5]. - Overall, the lithium carbonate market remained in a situation of excessive supply with high - level industrial inventory. It is recommended to trade with a light position under a weak and volatile trend and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The lithium carbonate main contract was weak and volatile on the weekly chart, with a closing price of 61,800 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.94%, and an amplitude of 6.13% [5]. - **Macro - situation**: The State Council emphasized strengthening the domestic cycle to promote stable economic development [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas lithium mines' price - holding sentiment weakened, lithium ore prices declined. Supply was excessive with high inventory, and demand was weak [5]. - **Strategy**: Trade with a light position under a weak and volatile trend and control risks [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of May 16, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 61,800 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,220 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 860 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 260 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Price**: As of May 16, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,500 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 2,700 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 470 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Upstream Market - **Lithium Concentrate**: As of May 16, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 753 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 22 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.2132, a weekly decline of 0.31% [19]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of May 16, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 1,811 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 83 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 7,340 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 110 yuan/ton [24]. 4. Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of March 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 18,125.49 tons, an increase of 5,797.53 tons (47.03%) from February, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.82%. The monthly output was 43,180 tons, an increase of 7,490 tons (20.99%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 14.78%. The monthly export volume was 220.031 tons, a decrease of 197.1 tons (47.25%) from February, and a year - on - year decrease of 31.68%. The monthly start - up rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [29]. 5. Downstream Situation - **Six - Fluorophosphate Lithium**: As of May 16, 2025, the average price was 55,000 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 5,000 yuan/ton. As of March 2025, the monthly output was 156,900 tons, an increase of 22,870 tons (17.06%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 47.39% [32]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 31,500 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 17,500 yuan/ton. As of March 2025, the monthly output of cathode materials was 178,600 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons (11.9%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 30.56%. The monthly start - up rate was 57%, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 2% [38]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of the latest data, the prices of type 811, 622, and 523 remained stable. As of March 2025, the monthly output was 54,050 tons, an increase of 9,130 tons (20.33%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 8.86%. The monthly start - up rate was 48%, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [41]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of the latest data, the average price was 29,000 yuan/ton, with no weekly change. As of March 2025, the monthly output was 9,670 tons, an increase of 870 tons (9.89%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 49.92% [45]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data, the average price was 220,000 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 5,000 yuan/ton. As of March 2025, the monthly output was 7,170 tons, an increase of 880 tons (13.99%) from February, and a year - on - year increase of 9.47% [48]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of April 2025, the penetration rate was 42.74%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58% and a year - on - year increase of 10.36%. The monthly output was 1,251,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%; the sales volume was 1,226,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%. The cumulative export volume was 642,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 52.49% [50][55]. 6. Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying was 0.26, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to go long on volatility by constructing a long straddle option [58].
沪铜市场周报:供给小增需求放缓,沪铜或将震荡运行-20250516
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 08:50
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 沪铜市场周报 供给小增需求放缓,沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾:沪铜主力合约周线震荡略强,周线涨跌幅为+0.89%,振幅1.9%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价78140元/吨。 后市展望:国际方面,美联储主席鲍威尔表示,美联储正在考虑调整货币政策指导框架的核心内容,他指出,美国可能进 入供应冲击更频繁、通胀更不稳定的时期,长期利率可能会走高。国内方面,国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会,国 务院总理李强在会上强调,以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性,推动我国经济行稳致远, 努力实现高质量发展。基本面上,原料端铜进口TC现货指数不断下行,全球铜精矿供应偏紧趋势不变。国内铜矿港口库存 保持增长,国内冶炼厂短期内未受原料供给问题影响产量。供给方面,由于国内原料供应仍较充足,加之铜 ...
铝类市场周报:供稳需增内外分化,铝类或将小幅提振-20250516
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 08:49
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 铝类市场周报 供稳需增内外分化,铝类或将小幅提振 关 注 我 们 获 目录 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 期现市场」 本周沪铝期价略走强 图1、沪铝与伦铝期价 图2、沪伦比值 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 16000 17000 18000 19000 20000 21000 22000 美 元 / 吨 元 / 吨 电解铝期货价格 期货收盘价(活跃合约) :铝 期货收盘价(电子盘):LME3个月铝(右) 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 沪伦比值 沪伦比值 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾:沪铝震荡偏强,周涨跌幅+2.78%,报20130元/吨。氧化铝冲高回落,周涨跌+2.23%,报2890元/吨。 行情展望:国际方面,美联储主席鲍威尔表示,美联储正在考虑调整 ...
做强国内大循环,国务院明确了这四大重点方向
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 08:10
聚焦制约经济循环的关键问题和薄弱环节,在促进经济持续向好中夯实做强国内大循环的基础。 面对外部风险冲击加大,做强国内大循环成为关键之举。 5月15日,国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会,中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强在会上强调,要把发展 的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上,以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性,推动 我国经济行稳致远,努力实现高质量发展。 今年以来,高层多次强调做强国内大循环。多位专家对第一财经记者表示,当前国际环境复杂多变,稳定经济增 长需要更多地依靠内需市场来发力。打通消费、投资以及供需结构中的堵点和难点,畅通国民经济循环,已成为 激发内需市场活力、提升我国经济韧性的关键所在。 做强国内大循环 深挖消费潜力 他表示,结合现阶段我国发展实际,做强国内大循环重点要体现在四个方面。一是资源要素的高效配置,进一步 消除地方保护和市场分割,深化要素市场化配置改革,加快推进全国统一大市场建设。 二是科技创新和产业创新的深度融合,加强关键核心技术和前沿技术攻关,推进科技成果产业化应用,打造一批 新产业新赛道。 三是产业链供应链的自主完备,发挥各地优势加强专业化分工、地区间协作,持 ...
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-5-16)-20250516
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 05:53
敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 交易提示 交易咨询:0571-85165192,85058093 2025 年 5 月 16 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示(2025-5-16) | | | | 铁矿:关税降幅超预期,市场情绪明显提振,铁矿盘面大幅上涨。随着部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 分矿山产能的逐步释放和气候条件的改善,供应仍有增加的预期。铁矿港 | | | | | 口库存水平仍相对偏高,对价格形成一定的压力。需求才是核心关键,贸 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 易战缓和使得市场对钢铁需求的预期有所改善,美国进口商未来三个月将 | | | | | 迎来进口成本大幅降低的明确窗口期,未来 90 天中美两国之间的贸易将 | | | | | 大幅增长,对近月形成一定支撑,稳健的投资者尝试铁矿正套,激进的投 | | | | | 资者关注贸易冲突缓和带来的远月合约反弹抛空机会。 | | | | | 煤焦:主产地煤矿基本维持正常生产,焦煤供需宽松格局不变。由于焦煤 | | | | | 价格的下移,焦化企业利润好转,目前多数焦企盈亏平衡状 ...
中泰期货晨会纪要-20250516
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 03:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as macro - policies, trade negotiations, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors and products have different trends and investment strategies [12][13][14]. - For the Chinese stock market, Goldman Sachs has raised the 12 - month target points of the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index, maintaining an "overweight" rating and favoring domestic - oriented industries [10]. - In the futures market, different futures products have different investment strategies based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - environment [12][13][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council held a work promotion meeting on strengthening the domestic cycle, emphasizing the importance of domestic cycle stability [9]. - China's top - level design for urban renewal has been introduced, accelerating urban renewal actions [9]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's stricter restrictions on Chinese chips and re - emphasized the review of port transactions [9]. - In April, the growth rate of national enterprise sales revenue accelerated, and the construction industry also showed growth [9]. - Goldman Sachs raised the target points of the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index, maintaining an "overweight" rating on the Chinese stock market [10]. - After the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, the bank wealth - management market adjusted, and the market may face "asset shortage" pressure [10]. - The Fed Chairman is considering adjusting the monetary policy framework, and the US may face more frequent supply shocks and unstable inflation [10]. - The US and Iran are in nuclear - related negotiations, with Iran willing to promise not to produce nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief [11]. - US economic activity slowed down, inflation cooled, and the PPI, retail sales, and manufacturing output showed different trends [11]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US remained stable, while the number of continued claims increased [11]. 3.2 Futures Strategies 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Consider maintaining a long - term mindset and pay attention to style drift. The Q2 domestic economic fundamentals are expected to improve, and public - offering funds may adjust their portfolios [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Be cautious when steepening the yield curve due to tightened funds. Consider bearish operations in the bond market as the Q2 domestic economic fundamentals are expected to improve [13]. 3.2.3 Container Shipping to Europe - The focus is on whether the spot price will decline further and whether shipping companies will raise prices in June. The upward catalyst is emotional, while the downward pressure is fundamental [14]. 3.2.4 Cotton - Although the Sino - US tariff friction has eased, domestic cotton prices are still under pressure due to weak demand. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [15][16]. 3.2.5 Sugar - Sugar prices are oscillating due to sufficient short - term supply and uncertain supply - demand gaps. Global sugar supply is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, which may restrict sugar prices [17][18]. 3.2.6 Oils and Oilseeds - For palm oil, the supply - demand situation is weak. For soybean meal, with the increase in US soybean planting progress and domestic oil - mill operating rates, soybean meal prices are expected to be weak [20][21]. 3.2.7 Eggs - In the short term, the decline in egg prices may slow down, but in the medium term, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, so a bearish operation on egg futures is recommended [21][22]. 3.2.8 Apples - Consider a light - position positive spread strategy. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in production areas [23]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Consider short - selling at high prices and focus on downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas [23]. 3.2.10 Live Pigs - The spot market sentiment is weakening, and the main contract is increasing in positions and falling. A cautious and bearish operation is recommended [23][24]. 3.2.11 Crude Oil - The market is back to trading on weak fundamentals, and Trump's Middle - East visit may lead to increased supply. Oil prices are expected to decline in the medium - long term and fluctuate weakly in the short term [25]. 3.2.12 Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil, with short - term rebounds stronger than crude oil. The market is affected by factors such as power generation demand in the Middle East and shipping weakness [26]. 3.2.13 Plastics - Be cautious about the callback risk of L and PP. Pay attention to the situation where spot prices do not follow up [27]. 3.2.14 Methanol - Be cautious about the callback risk. Although the market sentiment has improved, methanol's supply pressure is still large [28]. 3.2.15 Caustic Soda - In a weak fundamental and strong macro - environment, the SH2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [29]. 3.2.16 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash prices are stable in the short term but face a long - term oversupply situation. Glass prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak demand [31][32]. 3.2.17 Asphalt - Asphalt prices are expected to follow crude oil and approach 3400. Inventory data provides some support [32]. 3.2.18 Polyester Industry Chain - Consider short - term long - positions. Although cost decline is a major negative factor, prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [33]. 3.2.19 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - After the short - term impact of tariffs, LPG prices may rebound, but the space is limited [34][35]. 3.2.20 Pulp - The market is oscillating in the short term. Pay attention to the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products [36]. 3.2.21 Urea - There are differences in the market's view on urea exports. UR09 and UR01 contracts can be short - sold when prices rise [37]. 3.2.22 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and appropriate long - positions can be taken at low prices. Alumina prices may have limited rebound space, and short - positions can be considered after the spot stabilizes [38]. 3.2.23 Lithium Carbonate - The impact of tariffs on lithium carbonate is not significant. The price is expected to oscillate and rebound based on its own supply - demand fundamentals [40][41]. 3.2.24 Steel and Iron Ore - In the short term, the market may rebound due to trade negotiations, but in the medium term, it is expected to remain weak due to factors such as weak demand and supply pressure [42][43]. 3.2.25 Coking Coal and Coke - In the short term, prices fluctuate with macro - policies. In the long term, without large - scale production cuts or reduced imports, there is no condition for long - positions [44][45]. 3.2.26 Ferroalloys - Do not chase high prices. Consider long - term short - positions when prices rise [46].
冠通期货早盘速递-20250516
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 03:45
Key Points of the Report 1. Policy and International News - China's State Council held a meeting on strengthening the domestic economic cycle, emphasizing using the stability and long - term growth of the domestic cycle to counter the uncertainties of the international cycle for high - quality development [2] - China's top - level design for urban renewal was introduced, with eight major tasks including renovating old urban areas and strengthening infrastructure [2] - US President Trump said Iran agreed to some conditions of the nuclear agreement, and Iran's senior advisor stated Iran's willingness to forgo nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief [2] 2. Energy and Commodity Market Information - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a slowdown in global oil demand growth to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025, and lowered its forecast for US shale oil production due to falling prices. However, it raised the annual average demand growth forecast by 20,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [3] - As of the week ending May 15, the production and apparent demand of rebar increased, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory declined for the tenth consecutive week. Rebar production was 2.2653 million tons, up 1.34% from the previous week, and apparent demand was 2.6029 million tons, up 21.69% [3] 3. Commodity Market Performance - The night - trading performance of key commodities such as urea, crude oil, soybean oil, hot - rolled coil, and Shanghai copper was mentioned [4] - Different commodity sectors showed various performances, with the precious metals sector having a 29.55% increase, the coal - coking and steel - mining sector up 13.50%, and the chemical sector rising 13.17% [7] 4. Asset Performance - Different stock indices had different daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.68%, a monthly increase of 3.10%, and an annual increase of 0.87% [9] - Other assets like bonds, commodities, and the US dollar also had their respective performance. For instance, 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.02%, a monthly decline of 0.41%, and an annual decline of 0.34% [10]