Group 1 - President Trump may announce the next Federal Reserve chair "slightly earlier" than expected, having narrowed down candidates to three or four [1] - Trump has criticized the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates and has previously called for Powell's resignation, although he later stated he would wait until Powell's term ends in May [1] - The potential announcement of a successor before Powell's term ends could create uncertainty in the market, leading to a "shadow Fed" effect [1] Group 2 - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin mentioned that the administration is considering up to 11 candidates for the Fed chair position, despite Trump's shorter list [1] - Trump has intensified pressure on Powell, including threats of a major lawsuit regarding the Fed's renovation project, which has faced cost overruns [1] - Trump believes interest rates should be lowered by three to four percentage points, arguing that high borrowing costs are harming American businesses and consumers [1] Group 3 - Powell defended the Fed's interest rate policy, citing uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation [1] - Recent data showed a rebound in U.S. core inflation for July, easing concerns about price increases driven by tariffs and raising expectations for a potential rate cut in September [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to initiate a small interest rate cut in September, influenced by rising inflation data and pressure from the White House, despite the current economic indicators not supporting a large-scale reduction [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in July, with the core CPI rising by 3.1%, indicating that inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2% [1]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Fed closely monitors, recorded a June value of 2.6%, up from 2.4% in May and 2.2% in April, justifying the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates [2]. Employment Metrics - The unemployment rate in July was reported at 4.2%, unchanged for three consecutive months, and significantly lower than the peak of 14.8% in April 2020, suggesting a stable labor market [3]. Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. government is approaching a "technical default," with projections indicating that 30% of government revenue in fiscal year 2025 will be allocated to debt interest payments, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [4]. - The ongoing high-interest payments on national debt create a paradox with the Fed's high interest rates, leading to concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and potential market reactions [4]. Market Reactions - Since April, there has been a notable sell-off of ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds, reflecting growing market anxiety over the U.S. debt repayment crisis and the sustainability of government revenue [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to initiate a small interest rate cut in September, influenced by rising inflation data and pressure from the White House, despite the current economic indicators not supporting a large-scale reduction [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with the core CPI rising by 3.1%, indicating that inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2% [1]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Fed closely monitors, was reported at 2.6% for June, up from 2.4% and 2.2% in previous months, justifying the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates [2]. - The unemployment rate in July was stable at 4.2%, a significant decrease from the peak of 14.8% in April 2020, suggesting a recovery in the labor market [3]. Government Debt and Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. government is approaching a "technical default," with projections indicating that 30% of government revenue in fiscal year 2025 will be allocated to debt interest payments, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [4]. - The ongoing high-interest payments on national debt create a paradox with the Fed's high interest rates, leading to concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and potential market reactions [4]. Market Reactions - Since April, there has been a notable sell-off of ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds, reflecting growing market anxiety regarding the U.S. debt repayment crisis and the sustainability of government revenue [4].

Core Insights - Retailers are gradually raising prices on various goods to cope with higher import tariffs, leading to a slight increase in core inflation for U.S. consumers in July [1] - The median forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg indicates that the U.S. Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) rose by 0.3% in July, up from a 0.2% increase in June, marking the largest increase this year [1] - Despite the rise in Core CPI, lower gasoline prices are expected to keep the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase in July below 0.2% [1] Industry Impact - The imposition of higher tariffs by the U.S. on trade partners is beginning to affect consumer prices in categories such as home goods and leisure products [1] - Although indicators measuring core service inflation remain moderate, economists generally expect the impact of increased tariffs to continue to manifest gradually [1] Economic Context - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates steady this year, while signs of a cooling labor market have emerged, creating a dilemma for the Fed, which is tasked with both stabilizing prices and achieving full employment [1] - As concerns about the sustainability of the job market grow, many companies are seeking ways to minimize the transfer of tariff costs to consumers [1]

随着美国关键通胀数据相对平稳落地，市场对美联储降息的预期再度升温。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月12日，美国劳工部发布的消费者价格指数显示，美国7月份通胀压力维持 6月份以来的上升势头。7月份消费者价格指数同比上涨2.7%，与6月份涨幅持平。但剔除波动较大的食 品和能源价格后，7月份核心消费者价格指数同比上涨3.1%，高于6月的2.9%，远高于美国联邦储备委 员会制定的2%目标；环比涨幅为0.3%，高于6月份的0.2%。 整体而言，关税的影响在7月份的CPI数据中没有6月那么明显，通胀没有加速上行。在CPI数据公布 后，投资者押注美联储9月降息25个基点的概率超过90%，美联储或在今年剩余的三次会议上都降息。 据央视新闻报道，8月12日，美国总统特朗普在社交平台"真实社交"上发文，要求美联储主席鲍威尔立 即降息，并指责其"总是行动太迟"。特朗普称，他正考虑允许针对鲍威尔的相关诉讼继续推进。 在经济数据和白宫压力的双重驱动下，美联储9月降息50个基点的可能性也已经浮现，接下来会"暴力降 息"吗？ 通胀意外温和 迄今为止，美国大规模征收进口关税对商品价格的传导有限。 中航证券首席经济学家董忠云对21世纪经济报道记 ...

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 随着美国关键通胀数据相对平稳落地，市场对美联储降息的预期再度升温。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月12日，美国劳工部发布的消费者价格指数显示，美国7月份通胀压力维持 6月份以来的上升势头。7月份消费者价格指数同比上涨2.7%，与6月份涨幅持平。但剔除波动较大的食 品和能源价格后，7月份核心消费者价格指数同比上涨3.1%，高于6月的2.9%，远高于美国联邦储备委 员会制定的2%目标；环比涨幅为0.3%，高于6月份的0.2%。 整体而言，关税的影响在7月份的CPI数据中没有6月那么明显，通胀没有加速上行。在CPI数据公布 后，投资者押注美联储9月降息25个基点的概率超过90%，美联储或在今年剩余的三次会议上都降息。 据央视新闻报道，8月12日，美国总统特朗普在社交平台"真实社交"上发文，要求美联储主席鲍威尔立 即降息，并指责其"总是行动太迟"。特朗普称，他正考虑允许针对鲍威尔的相关诉讼继续推进。 在经济数据和白宫压力的双重驱动下，美联储9月降息50个基点的可能性也已经浮现，接下来会"暴力降 息"吗？ 通胀意外温和 迄今为止，美国大规模征收进口关税对商品价格的传导有限。 中航证券首 ...

Inflation Data - The US July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose by 0.32%, both meeting expectations[6] - Year-on-year, the CPI was expected at 2.8% but came in at 2.7%, while the core CPI was expected at 3.0% and recorded at 3.06%[6] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the 2-year US Treasury yield fell to 3.72%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.31%[4] - The market narrative shifted to "moderate inflation → increased rate cut expectations → improved growth outlook," leading to a decline in the dollar index below 98 and a rise in US stocks[4] Rate Cut Expectations - Current market expectations suggest 2.4 rate cuts (61 basis points) for the year, but the analysis indicates a potential adjustment down to 2 cuts (in September and December) or even 1 cut (in October)[5] - There is an identified risk of at least an 11 basis point correction in the current rate cut expectations, indicating potential upward pressure on the dollar index and short-term interest rates[5] Economic Outlook - The rebound in used car prices and ongoing tariff impacts on furniture and auto parts prices contribute to inflation dynamics, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures in the service sector[6] - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term trends over short-term data fluctuations, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's eventual rate cuts and ongoing central bank gold purchases[5]

Inflation Data Summary - In July, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value and slightly below the expected 2.8%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, consistent with expectations but lower than the previous 0.3%[1] - Core CPI year-on-year rose to 3.1%, exceeding expectations of 3% and up from 2.9% in the prior month[1] Market Reactions and Trends - The underwhelming July CPI data led to a consensus in the market favoring a rate cut in September, with positive responses in both stock and bond markets[2] - Despite some positive signs in imported goods prices, service sector inflation accelerated, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy[2] Key Influencing Factors - Energy prices fell significantly, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, down from a previous increase of 0.9%[3] - Food prices remained stable, showing no change month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 0.3%[3] - Core services, particularly in transportation, saw notable increases, with transportation services rising by 0.8% month-on-month[4] Future Outlook - The upcoming non-farm payroll data will be critical in determining the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, especially if employment risks materialize[5] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell is expected to maintain a cautious approach, emphasizing data dependency before any rate cut decisions[5]

Group 1: Inflation Data - The US July CPI was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 2.8% and unchanged from the previous value[2] - Core CPI for July was 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3.0% and the previous value of 2.9%[2] - Service prices increased more than goods prices, indicating a shift in inflation dynamics[2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices rose by 1.1%, 1.4%, and 1.1% respectively[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.29%[3] - Market expectations for a September rate cut rose to nearly 100%, with at least two cuts anticipated by year-end[3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - The average tariff rate in the US increased from 16.6% to 18.6% as of August 7, the highest since 1933, which is expected to raise inflation by 1.5-1.8 percentage points[4] - The market anticipates a significant rise in inflation starting Q3, with PCE inflation projected at 3.0% and core PCE at 3.2% for Q4[5] - The likelihood of consecutive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is low, given only three FOMC meetings remaining this year[5]

Group 1 - Global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of over $1 billion (approximately 15 tons) last week, with North American funds being the primary driver, while European and Asian funds experienced slight net outflows [1] - Asset management funds increased their long positions by 15,000 contracts, raising their net long position to 45.7% of total open interest, while reducing their net short positions to 11.5%, the lowest level since gold prices stabilized [1] Group 2 - On the domestic market, gold prices rose by 0.08%, closing at 777.72 yuan per gram [2] - Market sentiment has been affected by trade agreements between multiple countries and the U.S., leading to a potential support for dollar assets, while U.S. economic data deterioration has increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, heightening market risk aversion [4] - Technical analysis indicates that international gold prices are forming a triangle pattern, facing resistance at the previous high of $3,450, with expectations of potential upward movement if a stronger breakout occurs [4]