财政政策

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日本央行行长植田和男:一旦财政政策确定,将评估其影响。将持续加强与政府的沟通。仅修正2025财年物价预期不会对政策产生影响。希望结合银行股持仓的经验来考量ETF。很难说何时能对明年的薪资谈判做出判断。需要关注薪资上涨是否成为常态。需要关注企业转嫁成本的趋势。
news flash· 2025-07-31 06:58
Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that once fiscal policy is determined, its impact will be assessed [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan will continue to strengthen communication with the government [1] - A revision of the price forecast for the fiscal year 2025 will not affect current policies [1] - There is a focus on whether wage increases will become a norm [1] Group 2 - The trend of companies passing on costs is a point of concern [1] - The experience with bank stock holdings will be considered in evaluating ETFs [1] - It is difficult to predict when a judgment on next year's wage negotiations can be made [1]
日本央行行长植田和男:食品通胀率可能消退,不会直接评论财政政策,将仔细评估财政政策对经济和物价的影响,将继续与政府密切协调。
news flash· 2025-07-31 06:55
Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that food inflation rates may decline and emphasized the importance of closely evaluating the impact of fiscal policy on the economy and prices while maintaining close coordination with the government [1] Group 1 - The potential decline in food inflation rates suggests a possible easing of inflationary pressures in Japan [1] - The Bank of Japan will not provide direct comments on fiscal policy, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - There will be a careful assessment of fiscal policy's effects on the economy and prices, highlighting the interconnectedness of fiscal and monetary policies [1]
摩根资管:美联储或在12月降息 投资组合偏向欧日及新兴市场
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 05:55
同时,尽管过去几个月通胀率年增,但迄今为止关税对消费者物价的影响仍然有限。美联储仍然认为关 税驱动的物价上涨只是水平变化,而非通胀的持续驱动因素。然而,由于基准关税的一些细节才刚刚明 朗,而且最近达成的"协议"的许多细节仍有待敲定,未来几个月通货膨胀率可能会继续上升。 关于在2024年降息100个基点之后,2025年是否会长期停滞、不会降息的问题,摩根资管指,美联储当 然愿意等待经济数据出现逆转——无论是成长放缓还是通胀上升——然后再采取行动,但可能需要几个 月的数据才能更清楚地了解该政策对美国经济的影响。 摩根资产管理环球策略师Kerry Craig表示,目前市场定价反映出9月降息的可能性不到50%,未来三次 会议上降息次数也不超过两次。摩根资管仍然预期美联储今年将放松政策,然而,9月降息的条件似乎 很高,可能需要劳动力市场出现实质恶化,并且政策决策的意外经济后果要到今年晚些时候才能完全显 现,这表明美联储可能在12月份降息。 美联储在7月会议上并未如预期般调整利率,但这标志着30多年来首次出现两位反对者。美联储希望被 视为货币政策"高效",而非强硬或"鸽派"。 总体而言,美联储仍然认为经济状况良好。虽然对 ...
欧洲股市机会犹存?如何配置投资组合成关键
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 05:31
Group 1 - European stock markets are recovering from a period of stagnation, with some stocks showing tactical overbought signals as investors recognize the region's investment potential [1] - Germany has announced a significant fiscal policy reboot, planning to allocate approximately 25% of its GDP to infrastructure and defense projects over the next decade, which is expected to boost economic growth in Germany and Europe [1] - The European monetary environment is signaling improved economic momentum, with inflation declining and more easing policies likely to be introduced, supporting local economic growth [1] Group 2 - Caution is advised regarding the strengthening of the euro and high interest rates, which could negatively impact European companies that derive most of their revenue from overseas [2] - Local European companies are showing stronger earnings momentum compared to multinational peers, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, banking, and construction, as well as defense stocks and utilities with high entry barriers [2]
国债期货日报:财政货币发力,国债期货全线收涨-20250731
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 05:04
国债期货日报 | 2025-07-31 财政货币发力,国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面:(1)宏观政策:5月20日,中国人民银行公布LPR下调:1年期LPR由3.1%降至3.0%,5年期以上品种由3.6% 降至3.5%,为近半年首次下调。同日,多家国有大行与部分股份制银行同步下调存款挂牌利率,涵盖活期、整存 整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施,延续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存 款利率" 联动调控路径;7月LPR报价持稳,1年期LPR报3%,上次为3%;5年期以上品种报3.5%,上次为3.5%。 2) 通胀:6月CPI同比上升0.1%。 资金面:(3)央行:2025-07-30,央行以固定利率1.4%、数量招标方式开展了3090亿元7天的逆回购操作。(4)货 币市场:主要期限回购利率1D、7D、14D和1M分别为1.317%、1.501%、1.620% 和1.550%,回购利率近期回落。 市场面:(5)收盘价:2025-07-30,TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.34元、105.63元、108.30元、118.36元。涨跌 幅:TS、TF、T和TL涨跌幅分别为0.0 ...
7月政治局会议解读:经济乐观预期,政策灵活储备
Great Wall Securities· 2025-07-31 04:40
Economic Outlook - The overall economic development is viewed more optimistically, with the second quarter GDP growth at 5.2%, indicating a strong performance against external uncertainties[1][7] - The meeting's language shifted from "external shocks increasing" to "reducing negative impacts from external uncertainties," suggesting positive signals in China-US trade relations[1][7] Policy Adjustments - Macro policy is now described as "sustained efforts and timely enhancements," indicating a continued loose policy stance but with less urgency for immediate action[2][8] - The focus is on improving the efficiency of government bond issuance and maintaining liquidity to lower financing costs, with a macro leverage ratio exceeding 300% in Q2[2][8] Fiscal and Monetary Coordination - Emphasis on the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to prevent idle capital while ensuring sufficient liquidity[2][8] - The likelihood of additional government bond issuance in the second half of the year is reduced due to optimistic economic forecasts, although actual economic conditions may still necessitate it[2][8] Structural Reforms - The meeting highlighted the need for deepening reforms to enhance industrial quality and efficiency, with potential policies aimed at optimizing capacity and stabilizing prices[3][9] - There is a shift in real estate policy focus from new developments to urban renewal, which may better stimulate demand in the existing housing market[3][9] Risks and Observations - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies and the possibility of concentrated credit events[3][9] - The third quarter is identified as a critical observation window for assessing the effectiveness of these policies and their impact on the economy[3][9]
铝:小幅震荡,氧化铝:价格走弱,铸造铝合金:跟随电解铝
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 03:05
Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoints - The price of aluminum shows a slight fluctuation, the price of alumina weakens, and the price of cast aluminum alloy follows that of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend strength of aluminum is neutral (0), alumina is weakly bearish (-1), and aluminum alloy is neutral (0) [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,625, down 165 from T - 5; the LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,608, down 31 from T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts have different degrees of changes. The LME cancelled warrant ratio is 3.10%, down 0.08% from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract is 3,326, down 29 from T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts also have significant changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 20,070, and the trading volume and open interest have decreased to some extent [1]. b) Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is 514,000 tons, unchanged from T - 1 and up 34,000 tons from T - 5. The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is 3,920.26, with a slight increase compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price is 3,271, up 26 from T - 5. The prices of imported alumina from different regions also show certain changes [1]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The prices of aluminum bauxite imported from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea have different degrees of changes, and the price of Yangquan aluminum bauxite has also changed [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is -291, and the prices of related products and inventory have also changed [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) is 2,610, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. c) Comprehensive News - The Chinese government will implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, and prevent and resolve risks in key areas [3]. - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, with two voting members supporting rate cuts due to slow economic growth, and Powell has not given guidance on a September rate cut [3].
固定收益点评:会后的修复行情
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-07-31 03:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on July 30 analyzed the current economic situation and deployed economic work for the second half of the year. The subsequent policy direction is expected to further support the economy, and the bond market is expected to enter a recovery phase [11][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - The Political Bureau's statement on the economy is positive, with GDP growing by 5.4% and 5.2% year-on-year in Q1 and Q2 respectively, exceeding the annual target of around 5%. However, the economy still faces structural issues, and policies will further support the economy to prevent systemic risks [11]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy continues to be proactive and may increase efforts at appropriate times. The issuance of government bonds in the first half of the year was rapid, and if the net financing rhythm from January to May is maintained, the annual issuance limit may be reached in August [2][12]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - The meeting adheres to a "moderately loose" monetary policy, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and lower the comprehensive social financing cost. Bank deposit rates may be further reduced in the second half of the year [3][13]. 3.4 Industry Clearance - The policy will continue to standardize market competition, specifically targeting over - capacity in key industries and regulating local government investment promotion behaviors [4][14]. 3.5 Consumption and Investment - Consumption policies will support both commodity and service consumption and expand the scope of service consumption support. The "Two - Major" construction will stimulate private investment, as the previous intensive issuance of government bonds did not lead to a rapid increase in infrastructure investment [5][15][17]. 3.6 Real Estate - Real estate policies will focus on stabilizing the market rather than stimulating it. "Urban renewal" may be an important measure to increase potential demand [6][18]. 3.7 Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to enter a recovery phase. With continuous liquidity and stable market expectations, 10 - year and 30 - year government bonds are expected to return to their pre - adjustment levels of 1.65% and 1.85% respectively [7][19].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20250731
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:44
2025 年 7 月 31 日 联系人:王竣冬 期货从业资格:F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号:Z0013759 研究咨询电话: 0531-81678626 客服电话: 400-618-6767 公司网址: www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号: 证监许可[2012]112 [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/31 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 铝 | | 液化石油气 | 原油 | | | 锌 | | 三十债 | 燃油 | | | 氧化铝 | | 白糖 | 沥青 | | | 棉花 | | 工业硅 | 二债 | | | 棉纱 | | 多晶硅 | 五债 | | | 尿素 | | 乙二醇 | 十债 | | | 硅铁 | | 烧碱 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | 纯碱 | | PTA | 上证50股指期货 | | | 生猪 | ...
申万期货品种策略日报:国债-20250731
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:44
2025年07月31日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华(从业资格号:F3010997;交易咨询号:Z0011162) tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.336 | 102.384 | 105.630 | 105.675 | 108.300 | 108.210 | 118.36 | 117.96 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.302 | 102.364 | 105.545 | 105.610 | 108.130 | 108.115 | 117.87 | 117.49 | | | 涨跌 | 0.034 | 0.020 | 0.085 | 0.065 | 0.170 | 0.095 | 0.490 | 0.4 ...