中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会议强调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量。明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。 ...

美债近日又突破一个里程碑，30.20万亿美元。要知道2018时这个数字还是15万亿美元，7年时间翻了一 倍。其中包含了由全球投资者持有的各种美国国债，若加上政府内部债务，联邦总负债已达38.40万亿 美元， 逼近41.10万亿美元的法定债务上限。 算下来，年支付利息高达1.2万亿美元，相当于新西兰一年的GDP。 三是，外资"口嫌体正直"，外资嘴上看空，但行动上确不断增持美债，比起日债和欧洲，美债显然更具 有吸引力。 2026年，怎么看？ 目前民调显示，选民最不满的是 "支付困境"——物价与收入之间的鸿沟。为挽救支持率，白宫的政策 工具箱已经打开。若民意回升，美联储可能温和降息(如75个基点)，财政以落实减税为主。 债务持续飙升的根源在于长期的收支失衡。美国政府支出与收入之间的缺口持续存在，这是过去二十年 债务不断加剧的原因。而在新冠疫情后情况更趋恶化，因为大量债务是在更高的利率水平下借入的。 IMF警告，美国债务占GDP的比重已达125%，远超对发达经济体建议的100%门槛。IMF预测，到2030 年，将飙升至143.4%，甚至超过意大利和希腊。 但戏剧性的是，美债规模创纪录的同时，回报却也相当丰厚。 这里原 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/12/08） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.08） 宏观及策略研究 海内外经济前瞻指标走弱——宏观经济周报 固定收益研究 重要会议前或以震荡为主——利率债 12 月投资策略展望 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/12/08） 宏观及策略研究 海内外经济前瞻指标走弱——宏观经济周报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、外围环境而言 美国方面，经济前瞻指标延续分化。11 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 不及预期，连续第九个月位于荣枯线下方，显示 制造业仍未摆脱收缩趋势。分项指标也不甚乐观，新订单指数环比降幅创下半年以来最大，需求仍显乏力 ...

对 2026 经济政策的理性预期 20251207 摘要 预计 2026 年中国经济增长目标或设定在 4.8%-4.9%之间，财政赤字率 维持在 4%，广义赤字率小幅下降，旨在控制债务风险，相关信息将在 经济工作会议上发布，为市场提供理性预期。 2026 年基建投资预计回升，受益于专项债下行速度减缓、特别国债稳 定、"十五规划"新项目及北方防汛减灾项目等，将推动基建投资增速。 房地产市场对经济的拖累逐渐减少，销售增速企稳，投资占 GDP 比重接 近发达国家下限，预计一到两年内触底趋稳，政策重点在于去库存和优 化供给，地方政府承担主要责任。 固定资产投资方面，2025 年增速为负，但随着房地产销售和价格企稳， 2026 年地产投资增速有望转正，从而带动固定资产投资整体改善。 消费领域面临国补资金不足和部分商品饱和挑战，但无补贴商品增速已 超过有补贴商品，未来汽车家电补贴可能减少，耐用品或受关注，服务 消费补贴全国推广尚需时日。 2026 年财政支出预计增加，货币政策延续适度宽松，一季度降息降准 概率较大，消费方面以旧换新政策持续，一季度经济增长预期良好。 美国货币宽松预期强烈，新兴市场需求稳定，预计 2026 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing debate about whether AI technology is becoming "bubble-like" continues, but investment is gradually penetrating upstream electricity and downstream applications, with increased fiscal budgets in the US, Europe, Japan, and South Korea for the coming year [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle continues, while inflation expectations remain at historically high levels; the short-term weakness of the US dollar is accompanied by expectations of RMB appreciation [1] - High-frequency data indicates a potential short-term rebound in China's exports [1] Group 2 - The proportion of residents expecting a decline in housing prices has risen to a high level, indicating that the response to real estate risks has entered a new phase [1] - Under strict control of hidden debts, debt reduction and repayment continue, which corresponds to the ongoing weakness in infrastructure investment since the second half of the year [1] - Personal income tax has increased compared to trend values due to standardized tax administration, while cross-year consumption may still face pressure [1] Group 3 - Prices related to "anti-involution" categories have experienced a rebound in the third quarter but have since retreated, with the central tendency remaining higher than before; industrial production indicators are showing a month-on-month slowdown [1] - Vegetable prices have risen above seasonal levels due to weather disturbances, and combined with a low base, the CPI is expected to see a short-term rebound [1] - However, the resonance of pork and oil prices is expected to ease in early next year, leading to a further decline in prices [1] Group 4 - Historical economic "New Year openings" often correspond to prior year-end fiscal spending, with recent fiscal strength and continued pressure on local land transfer income indicating moderate economic growth at the beginning of next year [2] - The effectiveness of subsidy policies in promoting consumption in the service sector remains to be explored, while credit demand remains at historically low levels [2] - The management of liquidity through government bond trading is becoming more diversified, although interest rate tools remain cautious [2]

如何看待本周市场缩量轮动行情？ 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 1、《A H 股市场周度观察（12 月第 1 周）》2025-12-06 2、《关注港股央企红利配置价值》 2025-12-02 3、《如何看待本周科技板块反弹？》 2025-11-30 报告摘要 如何看待本周市场缩量轮动行情？ 相关报告 本周市场交易额进一步下降，交易热点集中在有色金属、科技与非银金融板块，行 业轮动明显。本周 A 股市场整体呈震荡走势，交易额进一步下降。本周轮动行情主 要由市场短期利好事件带动。有色金属板块在铜、银、锡等资源品价格突破性上涨带 动下周度涨幅较大（5.35%）。半导体与国产算力板块走势也较强，摩尔线程于本周 五在科创板上市，上市首日开盘暴涨 468%，收盘涨幅仍超 400%，市值一度突破 3000 亿。其强大的赚钱效应彻底激活了半导体产业链，带动了寒武纪、海光信息等算力 ...

Group 1: Tax-Free Policy and Consumption - The Ministry of Finance and four other departments announced a notification at the end of October, stating that from November 1, 2025, the tax-free shop policy will be improved, leading to a comprehensive upgrade from products to services and the business environment [1] - The new tax-free shopping policy in Hainan has shown significant results, with customs monitoring tax-free sales amounting to 1.325 billion yuan as of November 17, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.52% [1] - The expansion of tax-free shops and policies like trade-in incentives are expected to inject strong momentum into year-end consumption, focusing on accurately activating demand [1] Group 2: Support for Technological Innovation - Fiscal policy has become an important support for the development of technological innovation, with structural tax reductions and fee cuts being key measures to strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation [2] - In the first eight months of this year, tax reductions, fee cuts, and refunds supporting the manufacturing sector reached 1.2925 trillion yuan [2] - Local governments are actively establishing investment funds to support innovation, with the Jiaxing municipal government planning to set up a 10 billion yuan investment mother fund to create a comprehensive fund matrix [2] Group 3: Investment in People's Livelihood - The central government has allocated 1.16 billion yuan in subsidies for elderly care service consumption to support pilot projects in regions like Liaoning, Zhejiang, and Chongqing [4] - The central government has also provided a 3,600 yuan subsidy for childcare to families, reflecting a strong commitment to improving living standards [4] - In the first ten months of this year, the national general public budget expenditure reached 22.6 trillion yuan, with social security, education, and health expenditures growing faster than the average growth rate of 2% [4] Group 4: Focus on People's Livelihood in Fiscal Policy - The Minister of Finance emphasized the need to combine investment in material goods with investment in people to meet diverse public needs and stimulate domestic demand [5] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of increasing fiscal spending on people's livelihood, addressing issues in education, healthcare, elderly care, and childcare to enhance residents' happiness and consumption capacity [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Fixed Income and Macroeconomic Analysis - **Company**: CITIC Securities Research Department Core Insights Macroeconomic Outlook - **GDP Growth**: Expected to achieve around 4.9% for the year, with nominal GDP growth anticipated to rise, marking the first time since 2022 that nominal GDP growth outpaces real GDP growth [4][39] - **Economic Growth Pattern**: Projected to exhibit a "front low, back high" pattern in 2026 due to base effects and policy timing [4][39] - **Price Improvement**: Price factors are expected to improve, contributing to the rise in nominal GDP [4][39] Policy Combination - **Fiscal Policy**: Anticipated moderate expansion with a deficit rate maintained at 4%. New special bond issuance expected to increase to around 5 trillion [4][44] - **Monetary Policy**: Expected to remain moderately accommodative, with liquidity conditions remaining ample and stable funding rates [4][39][48] Interest Rates - **Interest Rate Trend**: Expected to decline initially before rising, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9% [4][71] - **Market Dynamics**: The macro policy's moderate expansion and rising nominal GDP are expected to ease the asset supply and demand dynamics [4][71] Risk Factors - **Economic Recovery Risks**: Domestic economic recovery may exceed expectations, alongside potential financial regulatory changes and credit risk exposures [4][74] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Increased risks from US-China trade tensions and global geopolitical instability [4][74] Additional Important Insights Investment Strategy - **Investment Approach**: A step-by-step strategy is recommended, focusing on capturing opportunities in the bond market as conditions evolve [4][68] Credit and Social Financing - **Credit Growth**: Anticipated stabilization in credit and social financing growth, with a gradual increase expected in 2026 [4][47] - **Government Debt Supply**: Expected slight growth in government debt supply compared to 2025, supporting social financing [4][47] Inflation Outlook - **Inflation Trends**: PPI is expected to show a steady upward trend, while CPI is projected to be positive for most months in 2026 [4][35][33] Export Dynamics - **Export Resilience**: China's exports are expected to show resilience due to diversified trade partnerships and demand from emerging markets [4][20] Consumer Spending - **Consumer Recovery**: Consumer spending is expected to continue its weak recovery, supported by policy measures [4][23] Infrastructure Investment - **Infrastructure Growth**: Infrastructure investment is projected to recover marginally in 2026, supported by fiscal policy and special bond issuance [4][26] Real Estate Market - **Real Estate Trends**: The real estate market is expected to continue its weak performance, with inventory levels remaining high [4][32] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic outlook, policy strategies, and potential risks facing the industry.

Group 1 - Vanke is perceived as a good company with a commendable founder, Wang Shi, but is currently struggling due to economic pressures and a lack of government support for its debt issues [2][3] - The company's debt has ballooned to nearly 900 billion, and the financial burden of resolving this debt could potentially collapse other high-quality state-owned enterprises [3] - The real estate crisis is likened to a festering sore that triggers various economic and social problems, indicating a systemic risk that could affect multiple stakeholders, including suppliers, workers, and homebuyers [3][4] Group 2 - Economists and financial experts are proposing various strategies to address the economic challenges, but fundamentally, there are only three main tools: monetary policy, fiscal policy, and industrial policy [4][6] - The effectiveness of these traditional economic tools is diminishing, as minor adjustments in interest rates or taxes yield minimal results, leading to a situation where the Chinese economy is increasingly out of control [6] - The interconnectedness of modern economies means that issues in one area can have far-reaching impacts, emphasizing the need for innovative solutions to break through existing institutional barriers [6][8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for China indicates a significant supply-demand imbalance, with strong supply but relatively weak domestic demand. Policy adjustments will focus on increasing quality consumption supply, reducing inefficient investments, promoting consumer welfare, and addressing debt issues, which will impact various industries differently [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth Projections**: China's economy is expected to grow by approximately 5% in 2026, with inflation anticipated to be higher than in 2025. This suggests that nominal growth will outperform this year, positively influencing secondary market investments. Structural opportunities will primarily be found in technology and consumption sectors, driven by both economic and cultural factors [3]. - **Export Performance**: Exports in 2025 exceeded expectations, and growth in 2026 is projected to be at least as high as this year, potentially exceeding 6%. The share of exports to emerging markets is increasing, while direct exports to the U.S. are declining, although overall dependency is rising. Despite falling export prices, corporate profit margins are stabilizing due to technological advancements and cost reductions [5][13]. - **Weak Domestic Demand**: The primary reasons for weak domestic demand are the transformation of the real estate sector and heavy debt burdens, which have adversely affected the income of businesses, governments, and households. This situation is reflected in accounts receivable and payable metrics, indicating potential risks [6]. - **"Anti-Involution" Policy**: This systemic initiative differs from historical capacity reduction measures and will intensify in certain sectors such as glass, chemicals, photovoltaics, non-ferrous metals, and coal in 2026. This indicates that structural opportunities will increasingly manifest in specific industries [7]. - **Economic Policy Trends**: The economic policy for 2026 will continue a trend of moderate acceleration, focusing on increasing quality consumption supply and reducing inefficient supply. This approach has been emphasized since the 2022 strategic planning outline and the 2025 "14th Five-Year Plan" [9][8]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Sectors to Watch**: Key areas for increasing quality consumption supply include yachts, private jets, automobiles, and services in sports and high-end healthcare. Inbound consumption is also significant. Collectively, these sectors represent about 3% of 2024's GDP, with a potential growth of 10%, translating to a 0.3 percentage point increase in GDP [10]. - **Fiscal Policy Measures**: The overall fiscal deficit rate is expected to rise, including a narrow deficit rate of 3%-4% and a broader fiscal support rate. Adjustments in the use of special bonds aim to enhance efficiency, with the 2025 special bond scale at 4.4 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in usage compared to previous years [11]. - **Monetary Policy Expectations**: The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative in 2026, with interest rate cuts likely and sufficient room for reserve requirement ratio reductions compared to 2025 [12]. - **Investment and Consumption Outlook**: Investment is anticipated to improve slightly next year due to moderate increases and structural adjustments. Consumption levels are expected to remain stable, supported by policies like trade-in programs and increased social welfare spending, alongside enhanced quality consumption supply. Export expectations are optimistic, with a projected growth of 6% or higher, aided by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and advancements in Chinese technology [2][13]. - **Potential Growth Space**: China's potential growth rate exceeds 5%, indicating substantial growth opportunities. With sufficient policy support, higher growth can be achieved. Overall, a combination of supply-side and demand-side measures will allow the economy to reveal more positive aspects, with significant development opportunities across various sectors [14].