1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy shows mixed trends with some indicators like GDP growth having slight fluctuations while trade maintains an upward - positive momentum [1][2] - The global commodity market is influenced by multiple factors such as central bank policies, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical situations, leading to different trends in various commodities [4][5][9] - The financial market presents complex characteristics including bond market fluctuations, exchange rate changes, and the potential of capital market support for科创 enterprises [19][24][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, both showing a decline compared to the previous month [1] - In June 2025, social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and financial institution RMB loans all had different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - In June 2025, CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year [1] - In June 2025, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased 2.8% year - to - date, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5% [1] - In July 2025, export and import values showed year - on - year growth, with exports growing 7.2% and imports growing 4.1% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's trade in July 2025 maintained growth, with exports (in RMB) up 8% and imports up 4.8%, and a trade surplus of 7051 billion yuan [2] - The July 2025 China warehousing index was 50.1%, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace, and new orders for bulk commodity warehousing increased [2] - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a "stable" outlook, and China's macro - policies will continue to strengthen in the second half of the year [3] - There are differences within the Fed regarding interest - rate policies, increasing the uncertainty of monetary policy [3] 3.2.2 Metals - China's central bank increased its gold reserves in July 2025 for the 9th consecutive month, and global central banks' gold purchases are an important support for gold demand [4] - China's July 2025 rare - earth exports decreased 23% month - on - month, while soybean imports reached a record high and coal imports rebounded [5] - The SPDR Gold Trust's gold holdings increased 0.66% to 959.09 tons as of August 7 [5][6] - Dutch International Bank raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3250 per ounce [5] - London Metal Exchange inventory data on August 6 showed different trends for various metals [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased compared to the previous ten - day period [7] - In the first 7 months of 2025, China's imports of some commodities like iron ore decreased in quantity and price, while others like crude oil had different trends [7] - On August 7, stainless - steel and nickel futures prices rose, boosting market confidence [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On August 7, international oil prices continued to decline due to OPEC+ production increase plans, weak US economic data, and other factors [9] - A German energy company plans to purchase more natural gas from the US in the future [9] - Citi predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fall below $60 per barrel by the end of the year [9] - Chevron's oil tankers will load oil in Venezuela later this month [9] - Germany's natural gas storage is lower than last year but replenishment is ongoing [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The Philippines will suspend rice imports for 60 days starting September 1, which may affect global rice prices [10] - Most listed pig - raising companies had a decrease in pig sales volume in July 2025 compared to June, and pig and pork prices remained at a low level [10][11] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On August 7, the central bank conducted 1607 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1225 billion yuan [12] - On August 8, the central bank will conduct 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month买断式 reverse repurchase operations, and analysts expect the central bank to maintain market liquidity through various tools [12] 3.3.2 Important News and Information - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating and outlook, and China's macro - policies will continue to support the economy in the second half of the year [13] - The trading association strengthened the self - regulation of bond underwriting quotes [14] - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased, while gold reserves increased for the 9th consecutive month [14] - In July 2025, China's foreign trade reached a new high for the year, with exports and imports both growing [14] - The mechanism to support small - and micro - enterprise financing has achieved certain results [15] - The government will strengthen the governance of prominent issues in enterprise - related fines and increase supervision of government credit in enterprise - related matters [15] - In July 2025, the real - estate industry's bond financing increased significantly, and the average financing interest rate decreased [16] - The capital market will strengthen support for science - and technology innovation enterprises [17] - Hong Kong plans to strengthen the regulation of licensed money - lenders [17] - There were various events in the bond market including self - regulation, bondholder meetings, and credit rating adjustments [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market showed a generally volatile and slightly stronger trend, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declining [19] - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell [20] - The convertible bond index decreased slightly, with some bonds having significant gains or losses [20] - On August 7, money - market interest rates showed different trends, and Shibor short - end rates mostly decreased [21] - Bank - to - bank and inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate showed different trends, and some bond - issuing and trading operations had specific results [22] - European and US bond yields had different trends [22][23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On August 7, the on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell [24] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Hongyuan's fixed - income research expects the convertible bond market to follow the positive trend of the underlying stocks in August [25] - CITIC Securities believes that the economic fundamentals have limited risks, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation of stocks and bonds in the short term [25] - Western Securities' fixed - income research shows that bond funds increased leverage in Q2 2025, and the duration of most types of bond funds reached a historical high [25] - Shenwan Hongyuan's fixed - income research predicts the 10 - year Treasury bond's trading range from August to October and points out potential risks [26] - CICC believes that the US economy improved in July 2025, and there are potential impacts on the US stock market and bond yields in the short term, but risk assets have long - term potential [26] - CICC's fixed - income research expects the bond market to continue to fluctuate, and credit spreads may follow interest - rate fluctuations [27] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On August 8, 227 bonds will be listed, 127 bonds will be issued, 151 bonds will be paid, and 186 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [28] 3.4 Stock Market Important News - On August 7, the A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with some sectors performing strongly and others weakly [29] - The Hong Kong stock market rose, and real - estate and non - ferrous metals led the gains [29] - MSCI adjusted its global index, adding and removing some stocks [29] - The National Healthcare Security Administration held meetings on "healthcare insurance support for innovative medical devices" with participation from many top - tier institutions [29]

Group 1 - The bond market showed slight gains in early trading on August 7, with the 30-year government bond ETF rising by 0.15% and the 30-year government bond futures contract increasing by 0.20% [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 160.7 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40%, indicating a stable liquidity environment [1] - The yields on major government bonds experienced minor fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.5 basis points to 1.699% and the 30-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.05 basis points to 1.9175% [1] Group 2 - Starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax, while existing bonds will remain exempt until maturity [2] - The announcement is expected to lead to an increase in forward yield expectations for bonds, with a widening gap between near and long-term prices; however, the long-term impact on the bond market is expected to be limited, providing opportunities for long-term bond investments [2] - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF is the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes, making it suitable for investors looking to manage cash and adjust portfolio duration [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market experienced a slight increase on August 7, with the 30-year government bond ETF rising by 0.15% [1] - As of 10:00 AM, the latest price for the 30-year government bond futures contract was 119.54 yuan, up 0.20%, with a trading volume of 17,161 contracts and a total open interest of 100,808 contracts [1] - Other government bond futures also saw minor increases, with the 10-year bond up 0.07%, the 5-year bond up 0.06%, and the 2-year bond up 0.02% [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 1,607 billion yuan, maintaining the bidding rate at 1.40% [1] - As of 4:30 PM the previous day, the yield on the 10-year government bond active coupon decreased by 0.5 basis points to 1.699%, while the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond increased by 0.1 basis points to 1.796% [1] - The yield on the 30-year government bond active coupon decreased by 0.05 basis points to 1.9175% [1] Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - Starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax [2] - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from value-added tax until maturity, which may lead to an increase in forward yield expectations for bonds [2] - Despite the short-term impact of the tax policy, it is suggested that there will be opportunities to go long on long-term bonds, maintaining a bullish long-term outlook for the bond market [2] Group 4: Investment Products - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF is currently the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes [2] - This product allows investors to capitalize on short-term market fluctuations and can serve as a tool for adjusting portfolio duration or hedging equity positions [2] - In a low-interest-rate environment, this ETF is highlighted as a strong investment option for both cash management and portfolio adjustment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new tax policy on bond interest income, reinstating a 3% value-added tax (VAT) on newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, while maintaining tax exemptions for bonds issued before this date until maturity [1][2][4]. Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy creates a "new and old distinction," allowing existing public funds that invest in government bonds to retain significant tax advantages, as they continue to enjoy exemptions on interest income and capital gains [4][5]. - The tax exemption for existing bonds may lead to a "bond grabbing" trend, pushing down the interest rate curve as investors seek to acquire older bonds before the new tax takes effect [4][8]. Market Dynamics - The anticipated tax changes are expected to create trading opportunities in the bond market, particularly for existing government bonds, as the current yield on 10-year government bonds is around 1.7%, making the 3% tax impact significant [4][9]. - The bond market is currently experiencing a recovery in bond fund sizes, with a notable increase in the proportion of bonds held in various fund categories, indicating a shift towards longer durations to capture higher capital gains amid declining interest rates [7]. Fund Performance and Rankings - As of the end of Q2, the total net asset value of fixed-income assets held by public and asset management companies reached 10.75 trillion yuan, with notable growth in several funds, including Bosera Fund and E Fund, which ranked first and second respectively [5][6]. - The rankings of fixed-income asset sizes show significant movements, with several funds advancing in their positions compared to previous quarters, reflecting the competitive landscape in the bond fund market [6]. Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to face short-term pressure due to recent market fluctuations, but the overall outlook remains positive with expectations of a downward trend in yields as the market stabilizes [8][9]. - The impact of the new tax policy on the bond market is viewed as a one-time adjustment, with future market movements likely influenced by fundamental economic conditions and monetary policy [9].

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy expectations have significantly boosted market risk appetite, leading to notable increases in both stock and commodity markets since July [2] - The GDP growth rate has remained robust, exceeding 5% for three consecutive quarters, contributing to the overall market dynamics [1] - The bond market has shown a bearish trend, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to a peak of 1.73%, an increase of 10 basis points from early July [1] Group 2 - The recent meetings have indicated a shift towards more moderate language regarding the "anti-involution" policies, suggesting a reliance on market-driven methods rather than strict regulatory measures [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new tax policy that will impose VAT on newly issued bonds starting from August 8, 2025, which aims to correct tax burden discrepancies and enhance fiscal revenue [3] - The impact of the tax adjustment on the bond market is expected to be limited, with the focus shifting back to fundamental economic conditions [4] Group 3 - The economic landscape is characterized by a divergence in performance, with strong production, rising consumption, stable exports, slow investment, and weak real estate [4] - The central bank has maintained a stable liquidity environment, effectively managing tax-related disruptions in July, and is expected to continue this trend in August [4] - The overall outlook for the bond market remains cautious, lacking strong upward momentum due to stable economic fundamentals and weakened expectations for significant monetary easing [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 28 to August 1, treasury bond yields first rose and then fell due to multiple factors, with the yield curve showing a flattening trend. The resumption of VAT on bonds has a limited negative impact on the bond market, and credit bonds may see value re - evaluation opportunities. The tax advantage of public funds over bank self - operations is further enhanced, which may drive the outsourcing demand of bank self - operations. Next week, fund rates are expected to remain stable, while the supply pressure of treasury bonds will increase. The current bond market strategy suggests maintaining a defensive stance and seizing structural opportunities [2][3][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Review - From July 28 to August 1, treasury bond yields first rose and then fell. The fund - side was first loose and then tight, remaining generally loose. Important policy events were successively implemented, and the manufacturing PMI in July fell below the boom - bust line. Overall, yields of treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined. For example, the yields of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased by 1.01BP, 2.65BP, and 2.35BP respectively, and the yield curve showed a flattening trend [2][12]. 3.2 Bond Market Data Tracking 3.2.1 Fund - side - From July 28 to August 1, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 69.00 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 16,632.00 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases, with 16,563.00 billion yuan maturing. The fund - side was stable across the month, and the fund rate center declined. The differences in fund costs between non - bank institutions and banks increased, and the term spread of FR007S5Y - FR007S1Y converged [23][24]. 3.2.2 Supply - side - From July 28 to August 1, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds decreased, while the net financing increased. The issuance of government bonds decreased, and the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit also decreased. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of local government bonds decreased [41][44]. 3.3 Next Week's Outlook and Strategy 3.3.1 Impact of Resuming VAT on the Bond Market - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be resumed on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. This has a limited negative impact on the bond market, and credit bonds may see value re - evaluation opportunities. The tax advantage of public funds over bank self - operations is further enhanced. The market impact after the implementation of the new policy needs to closely track the primary - market issuance [3][52]. 3.3.2 Next Week's Outlook - After crossing the month, fund rates are expected to remain stable. Next week, the planned issuance of treasury bonds is 4130.00 billion yuan, significantly higher than this week, and the supply pressure will increase [59][60]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Strategy - For interest - rate bonds, 10 - year treasury bonds above 1.70% have allocation value, with 1.80% regarded as the upper - limit pressure. For credit bonds, seize the value re - evaluation opportunities brought by the resumption of VAT on interest - rate bonds. In the convertible bond market, focus on equity - balanced varieties. This week, pay attention to the primary - market issuance results of local government bonds on August 8, the central bank's liquidity injection through various tools in July, and inflation data [7][61]. 3.4 Global Major Assets - As of August 1, 2025, yields of US treasury bonds generally declined, and the term spread widened. The US dollar index rose, and the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB increased slightly. Gold and crude oil prices rose, while silver prices fell [63][68].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation judgment is optimistically cautious, with the macro - policy emphasizing continuity and stability, and leaving room for policy adjustment. The "15th Five - Year Plan" is set to play a crucial role in China's modernization process [7]. - Monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Structural tools are emphasized for targeted support [8]. - Fiscal policy is more proactive, with accelerated implementation of existing policies and potential new policies in consumption, technology, and foreign trade [14]. - The mid - term bond market yield is expected to continue its downward trend despite recent upward fluctuations [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation and "15th Five - Year Plan" - The current macro - economy is stable with progress but still faces challenges. Macro - policies aim to maintain the upward trend, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [7]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is a key stage for China's modernization, with a dual mission of connecting the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the 2035 vision [7]. 3.2 Monetary Policy - The moderate - loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged. The focus shifts to the priority of structural tools over aggregate ones, with an emphasis on guiding funds to the real economy [8]. - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to factors such as the differentiated structural economic recovery, expected Fed rate cuts, and historical rate - cut rhythms [10][12]. 3.3 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy remains proactive, with a focus on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds and ensuring the bottom - line of "Three Guarantees" at the grassroots level [14]. - In the second half of the year, the implementation of existing fiscal policies will accelerate, and new policies may be introduced to support consumption, technology, and foreign trade [17]. 3.4 Bond Market - The recent rise in bond yields is due to the resonance of economic fundamentals, policy, and capital factors. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose from about 1.65% to 1.75% in mid - to late July [18]. - Considering the policy's emphasis on continuity and stability and the economic weak - recovery reality, the mid - term bond yield is expected to continue its downward trend [18][19].

中信建投研报称，上周债券市场调整后趋于稳定。随着中央政治局会议的召开及中美斯德哥尔摩举行经 贸会谈的结束，短期市场影响因素暂时落地。考虑到财政部对国债、地方债等券种恢复征收增值税，新 老债券划断效应或在下周显现，短期内以老券为主的二级市场或有适度走强。点位方面，信用利差冲高 回落，当前AAA中短票利差修复至22BP一线，位于中期低位。这一位置体现了最近数月20—30BP的利 差波动区间的相对稳定性。从机构行为来看，银行继续保持抛售态势，而保险、理财等负债稳定机构的 买入力量在增加。配置盘力量的增强或使债市振幅逐渐减少。综合来看，短期债市有一定走强倾向，可 关注后续增量消息带来的新方向。 ...

点位方面，信用利差冲高回落，当前AAA中短票利差修复至22BP一线，位于中期低位。这一位置体现 了最近数月20—30BP的利差波动区间的相对稳定性。从机构行为来看，银行继续保持抛售态势，而保 险、理财等负债稳定机构的买入力量在增加。配置盘力量的增强或使债市振幅逐渐减少。 综合来看，短期债市有一定走强倾向，可关注后续增量消息带来的新方向。 人民财讯8月4日电，中信建投研报称，上周债券市场调整后趋于稳定。随着中央政治局会议的召开及中 美斯德哥尔摩举行经贸会谈的结束，短期市场影响因素暂时落地。考虑到财政部对国债、地方债等券种 恢复征收增值税，新老债券划断效应或在下周显现，短期内以老券为主的二级市场或有适度走强。 转自：证券时报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has stabilized after recent adjustments, influenced by the conclusion of the Central Political Bureau meeting and the US-China economic talks in Stockholm [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Ministry of Finance's decision to resume VAT collection on government bonds and local bonds may lead to a noticeable effect in the market next week, particularly favoring older bonds [1] - The current AAA medium-short bond credit spread has recovered to around 22 basis points, reflecting a relative stability within the recent 20-30 basis points fluctuation range [1] Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Banks continue to exhibit a selling trend, while the buying power from stable liability institutions such as insurance and wealth management is increasing [1] - The strengthening of the allocation power may lead to reduced volatility in the bond market [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a tendency for the bond market to strengthen in the short term, with attention on new directions that may arise from subsequent incremental news [1]