焦煤： （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 昨日焦煤盘面上涨，截止日盘焦煤2605合约收盘1167.5元/吨，价格上涨26元/吨，涨幅2.28%，持仓量增 加2532手。现货方面，山西临汾地区低硫主焦煤（A9、S0.5、G85）下调30元至出厂价1600元/吨，甘 其毛都口岸蒙5#原煤1028元/吨，价格涨8；蒙3#精煤1095元/吨，较上期价格涨15。供应端，大矿生产 偏向平稳，民营矿点陆续进入放假安排，供应稍有收紧，产地焦企原料煤库存多增至中高位水平，贸易 商需求减少。需求端，焦化厂集中补库基本接近尾声，需求放缓，终端成材价格小幅回调，钢厂利润进 一步压缩，短期内对原料煤采购量有限，预计短期焦煤盘面震荡运行。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 昨日螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3099元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格上涨1元/ 吨，涨幅为0.03%，持仓增加2.1万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格持 平于29 ...

免责声明 申万期货品种策略日报-天胶 | | | | 期货 | | | 价差 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | RU主力 | NR主力 | BR主力 | | RU-NR | RU-BR | NR-BR | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 16180 | 13135 | 13245 | 现值 | 3045 | 2935 | -110 | | 货 | 前2日收盘价 | 15980 | 12970 | 12935 | 前值 | 3010 | 3045 | 35 | | 市 | 涨跌 | 200 | 165 | 310 | 涨跌 | 35 | -110 | -145 | | 场 | 涨跌幅 | 1.25% | 1.27% | 2.40% | | | 基差 | | | | 成交量 | 254278 | 46455 | 80476 | | RU基差 | 混合-RU | 烟片-RU | | | 持仓量 | 13245 | 49513 | 3395 | 现值 | -180 | -1220 | 2220 | | | 持仓量增减 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract of live hog futures, LH2605, closed at 11,600 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day. The average ex-farm price of ternary live hogs in China was 12.41 yuan/kg, slightly down 0.05 yuan/kg. The market showed a differentiated pattern with prices falling in the north and rising in the south. The prices in the north were under pressure due to the weight reduction and increased supply of leading enterprises, while the overall market in the south weakened due to the price decline in the north despite the support of reduced supply at the beginning of the month. Currently, it is difficult to sell standard hogs, while the transactions of large hogs are relatively smooth, but the incremental demand from terminal slaughterhouses is limited, providing insufficient support to the market. Overall, it is expected that the hog price will continue to adjust weakly tomorrow. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of small farmers and the actual supply reduction of group enterprises [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of live hog futures contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13,255, 11,160, 11,600, 12,170, 13,055, and 12,960 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they decreased by 95, 60, 35, 60, 115, and 130 respectively, with decline rates of -0.71%, -0.53%, -0.30%, -0.49%, -0.87%, and -0.99% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 255, 38,906, 42,182, 6,909, 9,631, and 4,253 respectively, and the open interests were 1,531, 92,241, 137,621, 50,135, 36,512, and 20,997 respectively. The changes in open interest were +100, -3,709, +7,133, +1,573, +1,747, and +1,173 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads of January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 2,095, -440, -570, -885, 95, and -295 respectively, compared with the previous values of 2,130, -415, -595, -940, 80, and -260 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of live hogs in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 12.54, 11.86, 12.36, 12.41, 12.48, and 12.59 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, they changed by -0.35, -23.8, 0.06, 0.01, 0.05, and -0.26 respectively [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the day before was 100, an increase of 100 compared with two days ago [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are trading in a consolidation phase. For linear LL, prices from Sinopec and PetroChina remain stable. For拉丝PP, Sinopec's prices are stable, while PetroChina has lowered some prices by 50. The market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the impact of macro factors on commodities has increased. With the recent decline in oil prices, polyolefin market is gradually cooling down. Overall, the current driving force of polyolefin spot is relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: On the previous day, the closing prices of January, May, and September contracts were 6912, 6865, and 6916 respectively. Compared with two days ago, the price changes were 1, -13, and -3, with percentage changes of 0.01%, -0.19%, and -0.04%. The trading volumes were 104, 542177, and 29232, and the open interests were 615, 511685, and 70967, with changes of 24, 15259, and -102. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 47, -51, and 4, compared with 33, -41, and 8 previously [2] - **PP Futures**: On the previous day, the closing prices of January, May, and September contracts were 6706, 6730, and 6757 respectively. Compared with two days ago, the price changes were 38, 16, and 17, with percentage changes of 0.57%, 0.24%, and 0.25%. The trading volumes were 353, 413952, and 28861, and the open interests were 2463, 509892, and 110586, with changes of -85, 229, and 603. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -24, -27, and 51, compared with -46, -26, and 72 previously [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2254 yuan/ton, 6420 yuan/ton, 607 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6530 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, the prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, and South China propane have changed, while the prices of PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film remain the same [2] - **Mid - stream Spot Market**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6900 - 7250, 6700 - 7050, and 6950 - 7250 respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6550 - 6700, 6600 - 6650, and 6650 - 6850 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the price ranges of LL and PP in most markets remain the same, except for an additional high - price range of 8100 - 8250 in the North China market for LL previously [2] News - On Tuesday (February 3), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.21 per barrel, up $1.07 or 1.72% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.12 - $64.21. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for April 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.33 per barrel, up $1.03 or 1.55% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.19 - $68.27 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly strong" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market shows a shockingly strong trend, with a trend strength of 1. In January, the all-steel tire industry was in a seasonal off - peak season, facing triple pressures from cost, demand, and inventory. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the industry will enter a phased production suspension or limitation period. The market will show a trend of being quiet first and then stabilizing, with the focus on inventory reduction. Substantial improvement is expected in March [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily - closing price of the rubber main contract (05) was 16,180 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,310 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. The trading volume was 254,278 lots, a decrease of 176,248 lots; the open interest was 153,505 lots, a decrease of 2,489 lots. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 110,870 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members increased by 1,704 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main" remained at - 180, the spread of "mixed - futures main" decreased by 70 to - 1,050, and the monthly spread of "RU05 - RU09" remained at 130 [1] - **Spot Market**: In the external market quotes, RSS3 increased by 10 to 2,190 US dollars/ton, STR20 increased by 15 to 1,960 US dollars/ton, SMR20 increased by 15 to 1,950 US dollars/ton, and SIR20 increased by 30 to 1,880 US dollars/ton. Among the substitutes, the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber remained at 13,200 yuan/ton, and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber increased by 50 to 12,800 yuan/ton. In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard rubber decreased by 25 US dollars/ton, and Thai mixed rubber also decreased by 25 US dollars/ton. The price of African 10 decreased by 15/10 US dollars/ton [1] Industry News - In January, the all - steel tire industry was in a seasonal off - peak season. The prices of natural rubber, synthetic rubber, carbon black, and additives rebounded, driving up the raw material cost index by over 5%. The cost pressure was difficult to transfer downstream, and the profit margin continued to narrow. The promotion effect was poor, and the terminal replacement demand was further weakened. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the industry will have a phased production suspension or limitation. The market will be quiet before the festival and gradually recover after the festival, and the mainstream price will likely remain stable. The industry's focus is on inventory reduction, and the substantial improvement will wait until the peak production season in March [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, suggesting to pay attention to market sentiment changes in industrial silicon and the situation of the Beijing meeting in polysilicon [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,815 yuan/ton, with a volume of 256,241 lots, and an open interest of 234,800 lots. PS2605 closing price is 50,000 yuan/ton, with a volume of 18,297 lots, and an open interest of 38,411 lots [1] - Industrial silicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread is - 35 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying the near - month and selling the continuous - first inter - period is 51.2 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread is - 120.0 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount varies according to different benchmarks. For example, the spot premium to East China Si5530 is + 535 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's spot premium to N - type re - investment material is + 3750 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 53500 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Profit - Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang new - standard 553 are - 2316.5 yuan/ton, and for Yunnan new - standard 553 are - 5509 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 9.0 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.4 million tons, enterprise inventory is 20.9 million tons, and industry inventory is 76.3 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory is 33.3 million tons [1] 3.1.6 Raw Material Costs - The prices of silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in different regions are provided. For example, Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan silicon ore is 230 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.7 Downstream Products of Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) - The prices and profit situations of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are given. For example, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers is 1.53 yuan/piece, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.0 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.8 Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - The price of DMC is 13900 yuan/ton, and the DMC enterprise profit is 1912 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 is 23650 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum enterprise profit is 360 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In December 2025, there were 6233 newly - established on - record new energy power generation projects (excluding household photovoltaics) nationwide, including 36 wind power projects, 6190 photovoltaic power generation projects (48 centralized photovoltaic power generation projects and 6142 industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation projects), and 7 biomass power generation projects [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and that of polysilicon is also 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 白旭宇 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9485元/吨，较前一日变动+105元/吨，幅度+1.12%。现货方面，山东 栖霞80# 一二级晚富士价格4.00元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1485，较前一日变 动-105；陕西洛川70# 以上半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05- 1085，较前一日变动-105。 近期市场资讯，产区苹果交易局面较前期略有下降，价格暂稳为主。目前客商发前期包装好货源为主， 整体包装发运略有加快，主产区果农统货成交量一般，多以高次、三级果走货为主，部分果农急售情绪 加重。目前陕西果农货成交以少量两极货源为主，仍以客商发自存货源为主；甘肃产区静庄秦多以打包 客商货源发货为主，庆阳产区交易有所好转，走货尚可。山东产区成交一般，礼盒调货为主，少量75# 货源、三级货源出库为主。栖霞80#一二级片红果农货3.2-4.5元/斤，80#统货2.5-3元/斤附近。陕西洛川 产区果农统货出库价格3.5-4.0元/ ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 持续性驱动不足，焦煤震荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 基本面支撑有限，焦炭延续震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market is firm with rising prices due to increased pre - holiday construction site stocking demand, more factory orders, and active hedging by futures - cash traders, leading to strong reluctance among traders to sell. The 03 contract's valuation is being repaired due to low inventory and expected reduced future shipments. However, with the approaching Spring Festival, spot market trading activity is expected to decline, and demand remains weak. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach at current prices [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the prices of log futures contracts (LG2603, LG2605, LG2607) increased, with LG2603 at 801.0, up 6.0 (0.75%) from the previous day; LG2605 at 802.0, up 6.0 (0.75%); LG2607 at 806.5, up 2.0 (0.25%). The主力合约基差 was - 51.0, down 6.0 from the previous day. Most spot prices of different types of logs at ports remained unchanged [2] - The latest round of FOB quotes showed that the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increased by 3 to 113 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, while the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained at 125 euros per JAS cubic meter [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On February 4, 2026, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 6.934. The import theoretical cost was 771.23 yuan, up 19.89 (3%) from the previous day [2] Supply: Monthly - In December 2025, the port shipping volume was 109.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 94.5 million cubic meters (- 46.32%) compared to November. The number of ships at the port from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased from 55.0 to 29.0, a decrease of 26.0 (- 47.27%) [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 30, 2026, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 242 million cubic meters, a decrease of 7 million cubic meters (- 2.81%) compared to the previous week. In Shandong, the inventory was 177.10 million cubic meters, a decrease of 11.7 million cubic meters (- 6.20%); in Jiangsu, it was 40.76 million cubic meters, an increase of 7.8 million cubic meters (23.63%) [2] Demand: Daily Average Out - bound Volume - As of January 30, 2026, the daily average out - bound volume of logs was 6.17 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.01 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.89 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.28 million cubic meters (8%); in Jiangsu, it was 1.59 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.35 million cubic meters (- 18%) [3] Ship Arrival Forecast - From February 2 - 8, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 5, a decrease of 2 from the previous week (a 29% week - on - week decrease), and the total arrival volume was about 18.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.3 million cubic meters (a 15% week - on - week decrease) [3]

责任编辑：赵思远 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，沪银涨超7%，沪锡涨超6%，沪金涨超5%，钯、燃料油涨超 4%。跌幅方面，烧碱跌超2%，集运欧线跌超1%。 | 序号 | 音的各称 | 最新 | 现手 | 天府 | 卖价 | 深幅51 | 21-01 | 服 | 成交通 | 深味 | 持仓量 | 日期仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 护银2604 M | 22755 | 20 | 22753 | 22755 | 7.64% | 1 | 209 | 674752 1615 | | 236743 | 10407 | | 2 | 护锡2603 M | 398040 | 11 | 397900 | 397990 | 6.62% | 2 | 1 | 179280 24730 | | 37577 | 2144 | | 3 | 护金2604 M ...