美联储理事巴尔：如果通胀和失业率同时上升，美联储可能面临困难局面。 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 09 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 不建议追空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆ ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 基本面方面，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉压力比 较大。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束，并未出现异常天气，今年丰产概率 增大。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国天气值得关注，从整体 上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份。近期美国宏观数据显示疲 弱，美联储释放鸽派信号，叠加中美贸易战进入新的阶段，中美双方开 始进行接触，并且国务院降息降准等刺激政策落地，市场情绪有所缓和， 但由于中美贸易战不确定性仍存，以及全球经济的衰退预期上升，在消 费端存在下滑的可能性，供增需弱，对长远趋势看弱，未来的 6 月份显 得比较关键，如果中美握手言和，取消对等关税，美联储开始降息，行 情还有转机的机会，如果不能，则会一直发展不利。短期国内基本面无 变化，操作建议，依然是保持谨慎，有反弹做好套保对冲思路。（数据 来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：偏强震荡 本周 PTA 低位反弹，一方面是基本面成本与供需利好支撑，另一方面 宏观回暖与国内政策支持，短期 PTA 价 ...

前景不明，按兵不动 - 5 月 FOMC 会议点评 20250508 摘要 • 美联储进入观望模式，多次使用"等待观察"措辞，表明其行动可能滞后 于市场变化。市场普遍预期短期内不会降息，但对经济下行风险保持警惕。 • 特朗普关税政策的不确定性导致消费者信心受挫，软数据反映出对经济增 长放缓和通胀上行的担忧。然而，一季度 GDP、非农就业和服务业 PMI 等 硬数据显示美国经济仍具韧性，服务业受关税影响相对较小。 • 美国一季度 GDP 负增长主要受进口高增拖累，尤其是黄金、铜和电子产品 的大量进口。尽管数据表现不佳，但实际情况优于前期预测模型，科技股 财报季的良好表现也缓解了市场对降息的预期。 • 面对政治不确定性，美联储可能采取观望、鹰派预期管理和被动应对策略。 鲍威尔旨在避免因政治压力过早宽松导致通胀失控，同时也避免反应迟缓 导致经济衰退。在就业数据等硬数据明显走弱前，预计不会提前宽松。 • 特朗普加征关税的主要诉求包括增加财政收入、促使美联储降息以降低国 债滚动成本和债务压力，以及通过关税换取筹码，如增加美债持有量、军 费开支或本币升值。若股债汇三杀，尤其是美债收益率上行，特朗普可能 软化关税立场。 Q ...

金十访谈间美联储硬刚到底，美元会强势反攻吗？黄金多头重回主场，今年能涨到4500美元？Sasa联手 嘉盛资深分析师Jerry实时分析中，点击观看直播>>> 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve in policy decision-making, stating he has never sought meetings with any U.S. president, and all such meetings have been at the request of the president [1][3]. Group 1 - Powell's statement was made after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, highlighting that he has no reason to proactively request meetings with the president, reinforcing the Fed's independence from political influence [3]. - The Federal Reserve's policy decisions are based on economic data and market conditions rather than political factors, as reiterated by Powell [3][5]. - Powell's remarks aim to address market speculation regarding the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the government, especially amid economic uncertainty and frequent policy adjustments [5]. Group 2 - The statement serves to alleviate market concerns about potential political influence on Federal Reserve policies, assuring investors that decisions will continue to be driven by economic data and market dynamics [5].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price experienced a decline, closing at $3341.69 per ounce, down 0.67% from the previous day, with a trading range between $3366.36 and $3319.82 [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but highlighted increasing risks related to inflation and unemployment, complicating the economic outlook [1] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with a key support level at $3303 and resistance at $3350, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds [3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices are expected to rebound, potentially surpassing $60 per barrel, amid expectations that the US-China trade war has peaked [4] - Recent declines in Brent and WTI crude oil prices were attributed to market skepticism regarding trade negotiations and positive signals from Iran's nuclear talks [4] - The technical outlook for oil shows a downward trend, with a potential target of $50, and a recommendation to sell on rebounds with resistance at $60.3 and support at $57.0 [5]

Group 1 - The geopolitical risks have eased somewhat due to the resumption of US-China trade talks and a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, but ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and military confrontations in the Middle East continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, and Powell indicated that there is still a lot of uncertainty, which has cooled expectations for a rate cut in June, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index that has somewhat suppressed the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars [2] - The US national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, and Trump's tariff policies may push core inflation to 3%, which supports gold's anti-inflation properties and keeps long-term funds interested in gold, providing support for gold prices in the Asian market [2] Group 2 - The spot gold price opened at $3366.20 per ounce in the Asian market, initially rising to a high of $3414.79 before a significant drop to a low of $3320.35, indicating weakened bullish momentum [5] - On the hourly chart, gold has broken below the recent trading range, indicating a bearish direction, with strong downward momentum observed on the 15-minute chart suggesting potential for new lows [5] - The trading strategy for today suggests short positions on rallies with a take-profit target at $3310.00 and a stop-loss based on the 15-minute moving average [5] Group 3 - Silver opened at $32.365, showing a similar pattern of initial gains followed by a decline, with only short-term trading opportunities available on the 5-minute chart [7] - The price has fallen below the 20-period moving average, indicating further weakening of bullish momentum and a bearish outlook [7] - The trading strategy for silver suggests short positions on rallies with a stop-loss based on the moving average and a take-profit target at $32.000 [7]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised the target values for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 78 points and 4400 points respectively, indicating potential upside of 7% and 15% [1] - Goldman Sachs has maintained a bullish outlook on Chinese assets throughout the year, with the MSCI China Index showing a year-to-date increase of over 12% [1] - The resilience of the Chinese stock market is attributed to factors such as a weaker dollar, strong economic growth, and domestic policy support [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for net southbound capital inflows for the year from $75 billion to $110 billion, driven by capital flowing from the U.S. to China, the growth potential and valuation advantages of H-shares, and the expansion of the investable universe due to new IPOs and "returning" listings [1][2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs' chief economist, Jan Hatzius, has expressed a strong stance on shorting the dollar and going long on gold, citing that risk assets have already priced in much of the optimism [4] - Hatzius estimates a 45% probability of a U.S. economic recession within the next 12 months, with expectations of increased tariffs in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [4] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement three consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points, with the first cut now expected in July, a month later than previously anticipated [5] - Concerns have been raised regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, suggesting that if the White House gains the power to dismiss the chair and FOMC members without just cause, the Fed could become the least independent central bank among developed countries [5]

期货热点追踪 油价上涨，受需求预期支撑，但美联储按兵不动限制涨幅，油价上行能否持久？花旗下调油价预期，市 场将作何反应？ 相关链接 ...