Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Holiday - eve saw a divergence in the Shanghai precious metals market, with the Shanghai gold futures main - contract price hitting a new record high and the upward momentum of silver slowing [2]. - Geopolitical factors: If the peace agreement between the US and Israel makes substantial progress, the safe - haven premium of precious metals may decline, and a short - term correction is possible. The potential US government shutdown due to the lack of short - term funding has heightened market risk aversion [2]. - Fed officials emphasized the risk of inflation rebound, with a cautious approach to interest rate cuts and a data - dependent path. The recent strong US economic data has slightly reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may hinder the upward movement of gold prices [2]. - The US 8 - month core PCE data met market expectations. Although the interest rate cut expectation declined marginally due to Powell's hawkish remarks, the PCE data's mildness secured a 25bps interest rate cut in the next FOMC meeting [2]. - The gold and silver ETFs in the external market had significant net inflows, and market bullish sentiment remained high. The market focus is on US economic data and Fed policies. Weak non - farm payrolls this week would increase the probability of further interest rate cuts and boost precious metals, while high inflation and economic resilience could lead to a rebound in the US dollar and bond yields and put downward pressure on precious metals [2]. - In the long - term, the US fiscal deficit, debt issues, tariff uncertainties, and geopolitical risks support gold prices. Silver generally follows gold, and the structural demand in the photovoltaic and new - energy sectors may bring additional elasticity when the global manufacturing industry stabilizes. It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and beware of short - term correction risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold futures main contract was 874.4 yuan/gram, up 7.88 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver futures main contract was 10918 yuan/kg, down 21 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold were 256,876 lots, down 6,344 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 476,244 lots, down 32,723 lots. The net positions of the top 20 traders in the Shanghai gold main contract were 166,413 lots, down 1,306 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 105,881 lots, up 6,986 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The gold warehouse receipts were 70,728 kg, up 2,100 kg; the silver warehouse receipts were 1,192,282 kg, up 2,634 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 872.95 yuan/gram, up 15.92 yuan; the silver spot price was 10,913 yuan/kg, up 143 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold futures main contract was - 1.45 yuan/gram, up 8.04 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver futures main contract was - 5 yuan/kg, up 164 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 1,011.73 tons, up 6.01 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,521.35 tons, up 159.51 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 266,749 contracts, up 339 contracts; those of silver were 52,276 contracts, up 738 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 13.38%, down 0.71 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.45%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 21.12%, up 1.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.11%, up 1.53 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump and Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting, and a peace plan was proposed. If implemented, the war would end immediately, and Israeli troops would withdraw to the agreed - upon border [2]. - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on overseas - made movies and large tariffs on countries where furniture is not made in the US [2]. - The value of the US Treasury's 261.5 million ounces of gold reserves exceeded $1 trillion. A market - value revaluation would release about $990 billion in funds for the US Treasury [2]. - Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts. Hamack opposed rate cuts due to inflation concerns, Musalem was open to future rate cuts but cautious, and Williams said monetary policy remained tight [2].

Market Overview - Gold prices surged last week, breaking the 3800 mark and reaching 3850, with a notable increase of 90 USD [1][5][12] - The bullish trend is expected to continue, with targets set at 3900 [7][12] Recent Developments - The recent rally in gold prices is attributed to a liquidity crisis in the U.S. and heightened tensions regarding a potential government shutdown, which has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [13] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and internal divisions have also contributed to the bullish sentiment in the gold market, with expectations of rising inflation [13] Technical Analysis - Key support levels are identified at 3822 and 3790, with potential for rebounds if these levels hold [9][12] - The market has seen a continuous upward trend for four months, with a significant monthly increase of 400 USD and an annual increase exceeding 1000 USD [12] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on entry and exit points to maximize profits, emphasizing the importance of experience and risk management [15] - Following experienced traders is suggested as a strategy to achieve higher accuracy and profitability in gold trading [15]

Core Insights - The conference focused on the theme "Fluctuations of the RMB Exchange Rate and Expectations of Federal Reserve Policies" [1] - Key speakers included Guan Tao, Chief Economist at Zhongyin Securities, and other experts discussing the implications of U.S. monetary policy on the RMB [1][3] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - The RMB is expected to appreciate against the USD by 2025 due to various factors, including a decline in the USD index by 9.5% in the first nine months of 2023 and improvements in the Chinese economy [3][4] - Factors supporting the RMB include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, a weakened USD credibility, and positive economic indicators from China [3][4] - The current RMB exchange rate is not significantly deviating from its equilibrium, with no substantial appreciation pressure observed [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve began a rate-cutting cycle in September 2023, which is expected to influence global liquidity and capital flows, benefiting emerging markets including China [6] - The Fed's monetary policy is primarily driven by domestic inflation and employment levels, which may lead to further weakening of the USD [6] - The anticipated slowdown in U.S. capital inflows in Q4 2023 could impact international capital confidence in USD assets, affecting the RMB exchange rate [6] Group 3: International Monetary System Challenges - The international monetary system faces challenges from geopolitical tensions, the rise of credit currencies, and the need for reform in response to technological advancements [8] - Future reforms may include promoting a more stable monetary system, enhancing cross-border payment efficiency, and exploring the role of sovereign currencies [8] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's policies are ultimately aimed at maximizing U.S. interests, balancing domestic and global economic considerations [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of the RMB to USD exchange rate reflects underlying market tensions amidst global monetary policy divergence and geopolitical risks, with every small change potentially indicating larger capital flow dynamics and policy interactions [1][2] Exchange Rate Dynamics - On September 26, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.1152, a decrease of 34 basis points from the previous trading day [1] - Historical trends indicate that the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy has previously exerted significant depreciation pressure on the RMB, with the currency experiencing substantial fluctuations in 2023, including a drop below 7.35, marking a 15-year low [1][3] Market Sentiment and Internal Challenges - The responsibility for exchange rate fluctuations cannot be solely attributed to external factors; internal market expectations and information transmission issues pose significant challenges [2] - Concerns from microeconomic entities highlight the uncertainty surrounding whether recent fluctuations are short-term disturbances or indicative of a trend change, complicating long-term foreign exchange strategy formulation [2] Policy and Market Stability - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the stability of the RMB exchange rate, asserting that the international balance of payments remains fundamentally balanced and cross-border capital flows are orderly [2] - However, reliance on the central parity guidance and counter-cyclical factors for stability may inadvertently weaken the exchange rate's role as an automatic stabilizer in the macroeconomy [2] Historical Lessons and Future Outlook - The lessons from 2023 underscore the importance of effective expectation management and cross-border capital flow regulation, especially as the RMB shows signs of stabilization amid external pressures [3] - The future trajectory of the RMB exchange rate will depend on the interplay of external factors, such as potential Fed rate cuts, and internal economic recovery and structural reforms [4] Broader Currency Valuation Perspective - There is a need to shift focus from the RMB to USD exchange rate to a broader assessment of the RMB's value against a basket of currencies, reflecting its performance in international trade [3] - Experts suggest that a more comprehensive view of the effective exchange rate index could provide a clearer understanding of the RMB's value in the global market [3] Conclusion on Stability and Reform - True stability in the RMB exchange rate hinges on market confidence in China's long-term economic prospects and trust in the exchange rate formation mechanism [4] - Addressing external shocks and enhancing financial reforms are crucial for allowing the exchange rate to serve as an effective tool for reflecting market supply and demand, rather than merely a macroeconomic control instrument [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has shown strong upward momentum, with a new high of 3791 reached on Tuesday, followed by a slight adjustment and subsequent recovery towards the end of the week, resulting in a six-week consecutive increase in prices [1]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The market is expected to be tense next week due to central bank dynamics, seasonal factors, and the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's policy path and global economic data [2]. - Multiple Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak next week, discussing economic outlook and monetary policy direction, amidst a divergence between the Fed's "dot plot" indicating only a 25 basis point rate cut by 2026 and market expectations of three rate cuts [3]. - The probability of a U.S. government shutdown is at 66%, which could delay the release of key economic reports, including the non-farm payrolls and CPI, increasing uncertainty in policy decisions [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold market has shown a clear upward trend, with the current movement being part of a larger five-wave structure that began at 3268, with the third wave currently in progress [6]. - Two potential scenarios for next week's gold price movement are outlined: 1. If gold remains below 3791, it may continue to adjust, with key support levels at 3722 and 3717 needing to be monitored for confirmation of a downward adjustment [7][10]. 2. If gold breaks above 3791, it would indicate a continuation of the upward trend, necessitating a reassessment of the current wave structure [13].

上周美股结束此前周线连续上涨行情。 虽然人工智能行业前景持续给科技权重股带来提振，但市场仍重点关注美联储未来的政策路径走向，并 评估美联储主席鲍威尔对估值的警告。未来一周，非农报告或让美联储10月议息会议前景更加明朗化， 不过联邦政府潜在的关门风险可能是不确定性因素，给三季度末美股收官带来风险。 经济数据保持韧性 投资者正迫切期待将于下周五发布的美国9月就业报告。施瓦茨向第一财经表示，目前通胀与失业率均 高于美联储目标水平，因此不排除美联储将以谨慎节奏推进降息。他认为，就业报告将显示，岗位增长 速度比8月更为稳健，非农就业人数净增或达8.5万人。这一数据应能让美联储确信劳动力市场并未恶 化，从而使美联储在10月会议上维持现有政策不变。然而，若联邦政府停摆持续至本周末之后，9月就 业报告及其他政府统计数据的发布都将被迫推迟。 9月如何收官 上周美股表现低迷，市场受美联储主席鲍威尔有关估值问题表态影响。截至目前，9月还剩两个交易 日，标普500指数本月累计上涨2.8%，远好于历史同期平均表现，今年以来累计涨幅达13%。 过去一周市场需消化多组稳健的经济数据，其中既有凸显出经济和消费者状况良好的信号，也包含通胀 数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have raised questions about the apparent contradictions in his remarks regarding interest rates, stock market valuations, and inflation control [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Market Valuation - Powell indicated that stock market valuations are "quite high," with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio nearing 20 times, which is 20% above historical averages [5]. - The concern is that a sudden drop in the stock market could lead to a decrease in consumer wealth, thereby suppressing consumption and negatively impacting the economy [5][10]. - Powell's warning about high valuations is more about risk prevention rather than direct market intervention, as financial stability is also a responsibility of the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Group 2: Inflation and Tariffs - Powell described the impact of tariffs on inflation as a "one-time fluctuation," but acknowledged that this effect could take 3-6 months to fully transmit through the supply chain [5][6]. - The emphasis on "temporary" inflation is intended to prevent market panic and to provide the Federal Reserve with flexibility in policy decisions [7]. - Powell's dual focus on stabilizing prices and promoting employment reflects the complex economic environment, where raising interest rates to control inflation could harm job growth [11][13]. Group 3: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with GDP growth at only 1.5% in the first half of the year, leading to cautious hiring by companies [10][13]. - Powell's recent interest rate cut is seen as a preventive measure against economic "stalling," while also aiming to cool down the overheated stock market [10][14]. - The Federal Reserve's independence is acknowledged, but political pressures do exist, influencing the context in which Powell operates [11][13].

Core Insights - The article discusses the current economic landscape characterized by inflation and uncertainty in monetary policy, prompting investors to seek asset management tools that can withstand market volatility and capture emerging growth opportunities [1][3] - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman emphasizes the need for decisive action to address signs of economic fragility, with recent data showing a 0.3% month-over-month increase in PCE inflation and a year-over-year rate of 2.7% [1][3] - The article highlights the significant differentiation within the cryptocurrency sector, particularly focusing on Ripple (XRP), which, despite regulatory pressures, is predicted to surge in price if it maintains its support level [1][3] Economic Context and Implications - The U.S. economy is experiencing a paradox of "sticky inflation" and resilient consumer spending, with core inflation remaining at 2.9% and consumer spending growth rising to 0.6% [3] - The Federal Reserve faces pressure to balance between premature rate cuts that could trigger inflation and delayed easing that may worsen labor market conditions, with expectations for a potential rate cut cycle in 2024 [3] - Historical trends indicate that a lowering interest rate environment tends to favor risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [3] Ripple and XBIT Wallet - Ripple (XRP) is positioned as a representative project in the cross-border payment space, boasting technological advantages such as instant settlement and a 60% reduction in transaction costs [3] - XBIT Wallet is presented as a decentralized Web3 wallet that supports multiple chains and integrates AI-driven market analysis, enhancing user experience and security [3][4] - The wallet's design allows users to maintain control over their private keys, mitigating risks associated with centralized exchanges [4] Security Features and Best Practices - The article emphasizes the importance of private keys and mnemonic phrases for asset security, detailing how XBIT Wallet generates and encrypts private keys locally [6] - Users are advised to back up their mnemonic phrases securely and avoid storing them on connected devices to prevent hacking risks [6][8] - Best practices for using hot wallets include implementing multi-factor authentication and regularly auditing DApp permissions to safeguard assets [7][8] Future Outlook and Strategy - As the interest rate cut cycle approaches, increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market is anticipated, with XRP potentially attracting more short-term traders if it surpasses the $4.20 mark [10] - XBIT Wallet's built-in decentralized exchange facilitates instant conversions, reducing slippage losses, and the wallet must adapt to cross-chain interoperability as tokenized assets gain traction [10] - Continuous education on security practices is crucial for users, with features like simulated trading in XBIT Wallet helping users practice recovery processes for their assets [10]

Core Insights - US consumer spending in August showed strong growth for the second consecutive month, increasing by 0.4% after inflation adjustment, surpassing the expected 0.2% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][3][5] Consumer Spending Breakdown - The increase in consumer spending was primarily driven by goods consumption, which rose by 0.7% month-on-month, indicating strong purchasing willingness for non-essential items such as furniture, clothing, and entertainment [2][4] - In contrast, the growth in service spending was more moderate, with indications that high-income consumers continued to spend despite potential price increases due to tariffs [2][6] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Persistent inflation remains a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, with the core PCE year-on-year growth stabilizing at 2.9%, well above the target [3][5] - The report highlighted that service costs, particularly in financial services, dining, and transportation, were major contributors to overall price increases, while goods prices showed weakness [6][8] Market Reactions - Following the data release, US stock futures showed little volatility, with the Nasdaq 100 futures maintaining a gain of approximately 0.3% [10] - The US dollar index experienced a slight decline, currently reported at 98.33 [10] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased to 4.158%, while spot gold prices increased by about $6, reaching $3755.53 per ounce [14]

Year-over-year core PCE inflation coming in as expected, up by 2.9% in August, but uh obviously it's still pretty sticky. Joining us right now on the implications for the Fed with all of this is Loretta Mester. She is former Cleveland Fed president and a junct professor now at the University of Pennsylvania.And Loretta, what do you think of these numbers. Maybe not hotter than expected, but but sticky nonetheless. Yeah, it was another month of stickiness and that isn't really what the Fed wants to see.I mea ...