Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the **Chinese bond market** and its dynamics, including interest rates, government debt supply, and macroeconomic factors affecting the market. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Bond Market Performance**: In June, the bond market experienced overall fluctuations, with real bond yields slightly decreasing to approximately 1.65%. The central bank's unexpected reverse repurchase operations supported liquidity, while U.S.-China tariff negotiations and geopolitical conflicts influenced market sentiment [1][5][16]. 2. **Interest Rate Trends**: The bond market's yield rates have shown a trend of first rising and then falling throughout the year, stabilizing at lower levels due to the long-term U.S.-China trade tensions and the central bank's growth-stabilizing policies [3][19]. 3. **Government Debt Supply**: It is anticipated that the supply of government bonds will peak in July 2025, with special government bonds expected to exceed 190 billion and ordinary bonds net financing around 280 billion. The net supply of government bonds in July could reach approximately 3 trillion, which is expected to have a minimal impact on the market [4][14]. 4. **Inflation and CPI Predictions**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to hover around 0% year-on-year, with pork prices declining and oil prices rising due to geopolitical tensions. Core CPI is projected to recover moderately, influenced by seasonal factors, but the internal driving force for consumption recovery remains weak [7][8]. 5. **Export Growth Outlook**: Exports maintained a positive growth of 4.8% in May, supported by resilient demand from ASEAN, India, and Europe. However, there is a risk of negative growth in export rates in the second half of the year, particularly as the U.S. stance on tariffs may change as the tariff exemption period approaches its end [9][2]. 6. **Institutional Investment Behavior**: Public funds became the largest holders of interest rate bonds in June, increasing their holdings by approximately 500 billion compared to May. They shifted their strategy from short-term bonds to longer-term and ultra-long-term bonds [18][17]. 7. **Market Liquidity and Central Bank Policies**: The liquidity in the financial market remains relatively loose, with the central bank's actions expected to maintain this trend. The overall monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with a focus on potential structural monetary policy tools to support key projects [15][19]. 8. **PMI and Economic Activity**: The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is close to the threshold line, indicating a slight recovery in economic activity. However, corporate profit data suggests ongoing pressures in production and operations, which may limit further PMI recovery [11]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The notes highlight the importance of monitoring the upcoming political bureau meeting for potential new policies that could impact the market [19]. - The potential for a shift in investment strategies among institutions as they respond to changing market conditions and central bank policies is emphasized [10][17].

Meanwhile, a few moments ago, we did get services PMI. Rick Santelli has that for us. Rick.Yes, David. This is the first batch. This is from S&P Global.ISM at the top of the hour. These are final reads. So, 53.1% gets downgraded just a bit uh to 52.9%.Still above 50. Haven't been below 50 since Jan 23. This will be the weakest just since April.So, solid numbers in expansion territory. And if you look at the composite that was serviced, the composite composite actually improved by a 10 from 528 to 52.9%. Als ...

重点关注 股指期货全景日报 2025/7/3 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2509） | 最新 3918.0 | 环比 数据指标 +26.2↑ IF次主力合约（2507） | 最新 3946.6 | 环比 +27.0↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2509） | 2701.8 | +5.0↑ IH次主力合约（2507） | 2707.6 | +4.2↑ | | | IC主力合约（2509） | 5769.2 | +20.4↑ IC次主力合约（2507） | 5874.0 | +24.4↑ | | | IM主力合约（2509） | 6135.8 | +28.4↑ IM次主力合约（2507） | 6279.4 | +27.6↑ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 IM-IC当月合约价差 | 1239.0 | +21.0↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1927.4 | -8.2↓ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 405.4 | -0.2↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 3166.4 | +12.8↑ | | | ...

7月3日消息，西班牙6月服务业PMI为51.9，预期51，前值51.3；6月综合PMI为52.1，预期51.2，前值 51.4。 ...

PMI显示，西班牙服务业6月增长加快 金十数据7月3日讯，周四公布的调查显示，西班牙服务业6月加速增长，为连续第22个月扩张。西班牙6 月服务业PMI从5月的51.3升至6月的51.9，但低于自2024年2月以来的前几个月（均高于53）。汉堡商业 银行初级经济学家乔纳斯·费尔德胡森表示："受制造业和服务业小幅增长的支撑，西班牙6月份私营部 门经济增速略有加快。"他表示，政治不确定性可能对经济前景构成风险，不过服务业企业对未来业务 前景仍持谨慎乐观态度。 ...

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries compared to last month[6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI is 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points[11] Supply and Demand - The production index and new orders index are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points[15] - The supply and demand index has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, with certain industries like food and beverage showing expansion[15] - Non-metal mineral products and black metal smelting industries continue to contract due to insufficient end demand from the real estate sector[15] Price Index and Procurement - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index are at 48.4% and 46.2%, both rising by 1.5 percentage points[20] - The procurement index has increased to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points, indicating a rise in enterprise procurement activity[21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability[24] - The construction sector's business activity index is 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, showing a seasonal rebound but with notable sub-sector differentiation[26] Risks - External disturbances and changes in real estate demand pose risks to the overall economic outlook[30]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's GDP growth is expected to remain robust at 5.0-5.2% YoY for Q2 2025, supported by front-loading of exports and earlier government stimulus measures [4][32] - The property market continues to face challenges, with 30-city property sales declining by 10% YoY in June, and top 100 developers' contract sales volume down by 35% YoY [9][19] - Manufacturing PMIs show slight improvements, with NBS manufacturing PMI at 49.7 and Caixin manufacturing PMI at 50.4 in June, indicating a less negative growth momentum [7][10] Economic Data Summary - **GDP Growth**: Q2 GDP growth is projected at 5.0-5.2% YoY, with a slower sequential growth compared to Q1 [4][32] - **Industrial Production**: Expected to soften to 5.4% YoY in June, down from 5.8% YoY in May [3][16] - **Retail Sales**: Anticipated to moderate to 6% YoY in June, slightly down from 6.4% YoY in May [23] - **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: Overall FAI growth likely recorded 3% YoY in June, with property investment declining by 10-12% YoY [20] - **Exports and Imports**: Export growth expected to edge down to 4% YoY in June, while imports may improve to 1% YoY [23] Sector-Specific Insights - **Manufacturing Sector**: NBS manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2ppt to 49.7 in June, with improvements in new orders and production indices [7][10] - **Property Sector**: The property market continues to weaken, with significant declines in sales and new starts [9][19] - **Automotive Sector**: Auto retail sales growth picked up to 24% YoY in June, driven by a low base and trade-in subsidies [23][38] High-Frequency Data - **PMIs**: NBS non-manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.5 in June, indicating slight growth in services, while construction PMI improved significantly [8] - **Port Activities**: Port cargo throughput growth moderated to 1% YoY in June, reflecting a slowdown in trade activities [9][17] - **Credit Growth**: Total social financing (TSF) credit growth likely edged up to 8.8% YoY in June, with new RMB loans at approximately RMB 1.85 trillion [30][31]

🗒️财新方面宣布，自2025年7月起，财新将正式终止对标准普尔中国PMI的冠名。因此，2025年7月初发布的财新中国PMI将作为最后一期在财新冠名下发布的中国PMI。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):中国6月财新服务业PMI录得50.6（2024年10月以来最低），预期50.9，前值51.1。综合PMI录得51.3，前值49.6。财新：受“五一”、端午假期效应减退等因素影响，6月中国服务业扩张速度放缓。 https://t.co/7jj2xvjsy8 ...

中国6月财新服务业PMI录得50.6（2024年10月以来最低），预期50.9，前值51.1。综合PMI录得51.3，前值49.6。财新：受“五一”、端午假期效应减退等因素影响，6月中国服务业扩张速度放缓。 https://t.co/7jj2xvjsy8外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):中国6月财新制造业PMI录得50.4，预期49.3，前值48.3。财新：生产指数和新订单指数均从收缩区间再度回到荣枯线上方，前者录得7个月新高，新出口订单指数、就业指数和原材料购进价格指数均在收缩区间上升。 https://t.co/9qFbCQcbKf ...

Group 1 - Musk criticized Trump's "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, suggesting that if passed, it would lead to the formation of a new political party called "American Party" [4] - Trump's interview indicated that Musk's discontent stems from the bill's proposal to eliminate tax credits for electric vehicle consumers, impacting Tesla's interests [6] - A survey revealed that 49% of Americans oppose the bill, while only 29% support it, indicating significant public dissent [9] Group 2 - In June, U.S. private sector employment unexpectedly fell by 33,000, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with the service sector experiencing its largest decline since the pandemic [13] - Following the employment data, traders increased bets on at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2025, with expectations for the upcoming non-farm payroll report [15] - UBS forecasts a modest increase of 100,000 in non-farm payrolls for June, while Citigroup predicts an increase of only 85,000, with concerns about a potential rise in the unemployment rate [15]