Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The urea market is currently in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. Attention should be paid to the export situation of domestic urea [3]. - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have sharply cooled down, greatly alleviating the market's concerns about the interruption of crude oil supply. It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [6]. - The copper price is expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger in the near term. However, due to the weakness of the spot market, the premium will weaken, which is expected to drive downstream purchases at low prices. Attention should be paid to the inflation data in the later period [12]. - The upward space of lithium carbonate is limited, and the pattern of oscillation and short - bias remains unchanged [14]. - It is recommended to operate cautiously in the asphalt market and go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [15]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and other products are expected to be in a low - level oscillation pattern due to factors such as increased supply, weak demand, and cooling geopolitical risks in the Middle East [17][18][20]. - The rebound amplitude of coking coal may slow down under the easing of geopolitical conflicts [21]. - The price of rebar is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short term due to high supply, pressure on raw materials, and weak demand [23]. - The hot - rolled coil market will still face significant downward pressure, and the price is expected to continue the weak oscillation trend [25]. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot - Spot Varieties Urea - The urea futures market opened low and moved high, rising nearly 3% during the day. The spot market sentiment became high, and the export and port - collection accelerated, increasing enterprise shipments [3]. - On the supply side, some Henan plants had temporary shutdowns, and the daily urea output dropped below 200,000 tons in the short term. On the demand side, the market's enthusiasm for stockpiling increased after the rebound, but the compound fertilizer market was tepid [3]. - The inventory decreased this period, mainly due to the opening of port inspections, which relieved the inventory pressure in the factories [3]. Crude Oil - After the US military's intervention in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, the market was concerned about Iran's retaliatory actions, but the retaliatory actions were weak, and Israel and Iran reached a cease - fire agreement, sharply cooling down the geopolitical risks in the Middle East [4][6]. - Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak season, the US crude oil inventory has continued to decline to a low level, and OPEC + production increases are less than expected, but the market is currently focused on geopolitical risks in the Middle East [6]. - It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [6]. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on June 25, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Some contracts such as red dates and urea rose by more than 2%, while SC crude oil fell by more than 8% [8]. - The major contracts of stock index futures generally rose, while the major contracts of treasury bond futures showed different trends [8]. Capital Flow - As of 15:16, the main contracts of domestic futures had capital inflows in contracts such as CSI 1000 2509, and outflows in contracts such as Shanghai copper 2507 [10]. Core Views (Commodity - Specific) Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and moved high, showing a strong oscillation during the day. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran eased geopolitical conflicts, but there was still uncertainty [12]. - On the supply side, the copper supply was still increasing, and the tight - supply expectation in the copper - smelting end was only reflected in the data. On the inventory side, the global copper inventory decreased, but the US copper inventory continued to accumulate rapidly [12]. - On the demand side, the terminal market was relatively weak, and the downstream mainly purchased at low prices and for rigid needs. The copper price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the spot market is weak [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and moved low, showing a slightly strong oscillation. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [14]. - In May 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased, but it was still at a relatively high level. The downstream was still waiting and watching, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The upward space is limited, and the pattern of oscillation and short - bias remains unchanged [14]. Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate decreased, and the June production plan increased. The downstream start - up rates showed mixed trends, and the inventory ratio continued to decline [15]. - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and the asphalt price has fallen sharply with crude oil. It is recommended to operate cautiously and go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [15]. PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the enterprise start - up rate also declined. The inventory pressure was still large, and it is expected to be in a low - level oscillation pattern [17]. Plastic - The plastic start - up rate increased, but the downstream start - up rate decreased. The inventory pressure was still large, and it is expected to be in a low - level oscillation pattern [18]. PVC - The PVC start - up rate decreased, and the downstream start - up rate continued to decline slightly. The export was restricted, and the inventory pressure was still large. It is expected to be in a low - level oscillation pattern [20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, and then rebounded at the end of the session. The supply pressure was relieved, but the demand also weakened. The futures price is expected to stimulate downstream purchases, but the rebound amplitude may slow down [21]. Rebar - The rebar price fell slightly. The supply was still at a relatively high level, the cost of raw materials was under pressure, the demand was weak in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation pressure was increasing. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern [23]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil price showed a slight decline. The supply pressure was still there, the raw material cost support was limited, the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory was slowly rising. It is expected to continue the weak oscillation trend [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market for lithium carbonate remains in a volatile and bearish pattern despite a short - term rebound due to news stimulation, with supply - demand fundamentals constraining upward movement [3]. - After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has sharply decreased, and the supply - demand situation of crude oil has improved. However, due to large geopolitical uncertainties, it is recommended to close long - call options on crude oil [5]. - For copper, the cease - fire agreement increases investors' risk appetite. Although the supply is expected to be tight, weak terminal consumption restricts the rise of spot premiums, and it can be traded within a range [11]. - The supply of asphalt is expected to increase, and with the decline of geopolitical risk, it is recommended to cautiously operate and go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12][13]. - PP, plastic, and PVC are all expected to oscillate at low levels due to factors such as increased supply, weak demand, and the decline of geopolitical risk [14][16][17]. - The soybean crop in the US has good growth conditions, and the supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient. The market for soybean oil is expected to be strongly volatile, while the market for soybean meal will continue to oscillate [19][20]. - The fundamentals of coking coal are loose, with no expectation of a significant increase, and the night - session support needs to be monitored [22]. - The fundamentals of urea are loose, and the medium - to - long - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bearish, with the follow - up of agricultural demand and export news determining the rebound strength [23]. Summary by Variety Carbonate Lithium - The price rebounded about 3% intraday due to news, but the SMM average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous workday [3]. - In May 2025, the import volume decreased by 25% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year, and the import average price decreased by 1.7% month - on - month [3]. - With high domestic production enthusiasm, weak downstream demand, and continuous inventory accumulation, the market remains bearish [3]. Crude Oil - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has decreased significantly after the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions [5]. - Entering the seasonal travel peak, US crude oil inventories have continued to decline, and OPEC+ production increases are lower than expected, improving the supply - demand situation [5]. Copper - After the cease - fire, investors' risk appetite increases. The supply is expected to be tight, but the inventory situation varies globally [11]. - As of April 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper decreased by 6.54% compared to the previous month. In June, the demand is weak due to the off - season [11]. - The price fluctuates within a small range, and range trading is recommended [11]. Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.4%, and the 6 - month refinery production plan increased [12]. - The downstream construction rate of road asphalt decreased to 22.6%, and the national shipment volume increased by 5.99% [12]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has continued to decline, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12][13]. PP - The downstream construction rate decreased to 49.63%, and new production capacity was put into operation in June. After the holiday, the inventory was at a neutral level [14]. - With the decline of geopolitical risk and the slow recovery of downstream demand, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The construction rate decreased to 81%, and the downstream construction rate decreased to 38.69%. After the holiday, the inventory was at a neutral level [15]. - Affected by tariffs and the decline of geopolitical risk, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [15][16]. PVC - The production rate decreased to 78.62%, and the downstream construction rate continued to decline slightly. The export situation is complex, and the inventory is still high [17]. - With the improvement of real estate data being limited, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - The main 09 contract of soybean oil fell 2.21% today. The US soybean growing area will have suitable temperature and precipitation, which is negative for the market [18][19]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to reach 950 million tons this month. The support from oil prices has weakened, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [18][19]. Soybean Meal - The main 09 contract of soybean meal fell 0.16% today. As of June 22, the US soybean growing conditions were good, and the domestic soybean supply was sufficient [20]. - With large production and limited downstream demand, it is expected to continue the oscillating market [20]. Coking Coal - After the cease - fire, the market for coking coal weakened. The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal remained unchanged [22]. - With an increase in domestic coal production and inventory, and weak demand for coke, the fundamentals are loose, and the night - session support needs attention [22]. Urea - The urea futures closed down today, with weak spot market transactions. The supply is expected to increase, and the international supply pressure has eased [23]. - The demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The medium - to - long - term trend is oscillating and bearish [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not eased, and EG is operating strongly. The recent Israel-Iran conflict has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, strongly pushing up the cost of ethylene glycol. The fire incident of three cruise ships in the Oman Bay and the expansion of the shutdown of Iranian EG plants have also contributed to the strong performance of the EG market [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$39/ton (up $4/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - made syngas - made EG was 227 yuan/ton (up 77 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - Regarding inventory, different data sources show a decline in MEG inventory in the East China main port. The actual arrivals at the main port last week totaled 108,000 tons, with a slight increase in inventory. This week, the planned arrivals at the East China main port total 100,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the change in the arrival rhythm due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [2]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, the domestic supply side will gradually resume in June, with a low overall load, and the supply - demand structure will still show a benign inventory reduction throughout the month. However, the cancellation and outflow of warehouse receipts will supplement the available spot in the market. Overseas supply is affected by the shutdown of Iranian plants due to geopolitical conflicts. On the demand side, the new maintenance plan of bottle - chip factories weakens the demand expectation. Future attention should be paid to the polyester production - reduction actions after the significant rebound of raw materials and the restart progress of large - scale EG plants [2]. - The trading strategy suggests a short - term long position, focusing on the further evolution of the Middle East geopolitical conflict [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract yesterday was 4,539 yuan/ton (up 68 yuan/ton or 1.52% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,547 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 80 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$39/ton (up $4/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - made syngas - made EG was 227 yuan/ton (up 77 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. International Price Difference - Not provided in the content Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The bottle - chip factories have new maintenance plans, resulting in a weak demand expectation. Future attention should be paid to the polyester production - reduction actions after the significant rebound of raw materials [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 616,000 tons (down 18,000 tons from the previous period); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 537,000 tons (down 27,000 tons from the previous period). The actual arrivals at the main port last week totaled 108,000 tons, with a slight increase in inventory. This week, the planned arrivals at the East China main port total 100,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the change in the arrival rhythm due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] Report's Core View - The upward direction of the global economy remains unchanged despite ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The conclusion is based on factors such as the US-China agreement stabilizing economic expectations, the expansion of the US manufacturing sector, growth in US consumer credit, China's efforts to address cut - throat competition, and the recovery of European manufacturing [1] Summary by Related Content Important Information - The Fed's June dot - plot shows an extreme trend of "either zero rate cuts or two rate cuts". Powell indicates that rate cuts require confirmation of tariff impacts on inflation and face new obstacles like Middle - East conflict escalation and unexpected food price surges, with key decisions postponed to after summer [1] - US President Trump has approved an attack plan on Iran but hasn't issued a final order, aiming to force Iran to abandon its nuclear program through threats [1] - Trump has repeatedly asked military advisors about the effectiveness of using giant bunker - busting bombs to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities if the US joins the Israel - Iran war [1] - Japan plans to cut the issuance of 20 - year, 30 - year, and 40 - year bonds by 100 billion yen each in each auction from July until the end of March 2026, reducing the ultra - long - term bond issuance by about 10% this fiscal year. The finance ministry will increase short - term and household - designed bond issuance to fill the gap [1] - The US FDA has approved Gilead's lenapavir for pre - exposure prevention of HIV. Clinical results show it can reduce the HIV infection rate by 99.9% with only two doses a year [1] - The CEO of JD CoinChain says payment - type stablecoins will play a "disruptive" positive role in Web3 international trade and plans to launch stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar and other currencies [1] - After Israel's attack on Iran, the rent of super - large crude oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has more than doubled in a week, rising from $19,998 to $47,609 per day, a 138% increase [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) data shows that the platinum market will have a significant deficit for the third consecutive year in 2025, with an expected shortage of 966,000 ounces [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are escalating. The US - China phased framework agreement has stabilized global economic expectations. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion. US consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion. China is addressing cut - throat competition. The European Central Bank has cut rates for the 8th time, and Germany has expanded its military by 30%, driving up European manufacturing. A potential oil price spike would take time to cause global inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in gold prices and the potential for a rebound, while also considering the impact of geopolitical risks in the Middle East on bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 1 - Gold prices have recently touched a support level, raising questions about the sustainability of the rebound trend [1] - The article highlights the influence of Middle Eastern geopolitical risks on market sentiment, suggesting that these factors may continue to drive bullish behavior among investors [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The mid - term bottom of thermal coal is emerging [3][4]. - For crude oil, both the optimistic expectations in China and the US and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, and it is questioned whether the soaring market can continue [3][8]. - For asphalt, it has encountered a decline after reaching a five - year high, and it is questioned whether the cracking trend has reversed [3][67]. Summary by Related Catalogs Thermal Coal - The premium of high - calorie coal at Bohai Rim ports is presented, showing the price trends of Mongolian coal with different calorific values [5]. Crude Oil Demand - side Outlook - The results of the London talks are limited, and there are still uncertainties in the reciprocal tariffs. The China - US container ship departure volume and shipping freight rates are affected by trade policies [12][13]. - A series of trade events have occurred, including the US - UK trade agreement on May 8, the Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement on May 12, the Sino - US presidential phone call consensus on June 5, and the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism on June 9 - 10. Attention should be paid to the trade negotiation progress before the expiration of the US tariff exemptions for most countries on July 8 and the expiration of the 24% reciprocal tariff exemption between China and the US in mid - August [14]. - The 4 - week average year - on - year growth rate of US refined oil apparent demand is +0.5%, with gasoline at - 2.5%, diesel at - 5.9%, and jet fuel at +1.3%. The latest ground congestion index is up 0.1% year - on - year [23][25]. - The refining profits of European and American refineries are under pressure again, and the subsequent start - up demand is more seasonally supported [26]. Geopolitical Risks - There are continuous geopolitical events in the Middle East, such as the US - UK joint air strike on the Houthi in January, the Russian terminal being attacked by Ukrainian drones in January, the Iranian consulate in Syria being attacked in April, the Iranian attack on Israel in April, and the Israeli retaliatory air strike on Iran in April. The Brent crude oil price has risen significantly due to these events [30][32][33]. - The Strait of Hormuz is an important oil transportation channel. In 2023 H1, its crude oil and condensate transportation volume was 14.7 million barrels per day, and the refined oil transportation volume was 5.8 million barrels per day. Threats to block it can cause significant fluctuations in oil prices [35]. Supply - side Situation - Some oil tankers are under sanctions, which affects the transportation of oil. The production and export of Iranian and Venezuelan crude oil are also affected by various factors [37]. - The number of US non - Gulf of Mexico oil rigs and the capital expenditure plans of US shale oil listed companies are related to oil production [43][44]. - The production and production targets of OPEC + countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan, are presented [48][51][52][53]. Price and Inventory - The futures settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil are affected by various factors such as the financial crisis, OPEC's production decisions, and geopolitical events [55]. - The inventory data of crude oil and refined oil, including on - land commercial inventory, floating storage inventory, and total inventory, are provided [59][62]. - The global demand for OPEC + crude oil supply, the supply - demand gap, and the global oil inventory are analyzed [64]. Asphalt Cracking Situation - In March 2025, it was recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on BU cracking on pullbacks. After late May, the cracking has declined from the high level, but the upward elasticity of the cracking spread remains unchanged due to low supply, low inventory, and other factors. The sudden rise in oil prices since June 11 has caused the BU cracking to decline passively [71]. Supply - side Constraints - The year - on - year changes in asphalt production of different regions and enterprises in 2025 are presented. Local refineries have problems with non - quota raw materials and rely on crude oil quotas. The import of Venezuelan oil by local refineries in 2025 has accelerated the consumption of crude oil quotas, and the production and export of Venezuelan crude oil are still restricted [72][73][78]. Demand - side Situation - The road demand for asphalt has limited new demand growth, but the maintenance demand is rising. The consumption of asphalt for road maintenance is gradually catching up with that for new road construction. In the neutral scenario, the asphalt demand for roads in 2025 is expected to be 21.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [87][90]. - The shipment of 54 sample asphalt refineries has been improving since late April, and the year - on - year growth has turned positive since the end of May. Leading indicators such as the issuance of special bonds and the domestic sales of road rollers are positive, and Q3 is a key observation window for asphalt demand [94]. Inventory Situation - The asphalt inventory is at a relatively low level, and the balance sheet is expected to continue the de - stocking trend in the third quarter [95][97].

市场快讯 -- 以色列对伊朗发动袭击,原油涨停 | | | | | | | 2025/6/13 | 实时价 | 漆味 | 漆烘幅 | 日增仓 | 持仓量 | 成交量 | 成交持仓比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (手) | (万手) | (万手 | | | 原油2507(元/桶) | 535.2 | 44.1 | 8 98% | | -3.278 - 2.10 | | 13.43 - 6.39 | | ICE原油(美元/桶) | 75 | 5.64 | 8.13% | | | | | | WTI原油(美元/桶) | 73.81 | 5.77 | 18% | | | | | | 燃料油2509(元/吨) | 3234 | 252 | 450% | | 26.615 ++ 24.07 | 76.19 | 3.17 | | 沥青2509(元/吨) | 3683 | 175 | 4.99% | 26.615 | 24.07 | 76.19 | 3.17 | 倘若以色列空袭伊朗设施,或者霍尔木兹海峡被封锁,进而引发 局部冲突, ...

2025 年 06 月 12 日 合成橡胶：原油偏强，短期震荡有支撑 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,225 112,068 | 11,230 104,597 | -5 7471 | | | （07合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 22,765 | 21,708 | 1057 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 625,573 | 589,374 | 36198 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 275 | 370 | -95 | | | 月差 | BR06-BR07 | | -10 | -35 | 25 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,350 | 11,400 | -50 | ...

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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Wednesday, and the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract is also expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Slightly stronger oscillating; Reference view: Stronger operation [1][5] - Core logic: Macro factors have improved, boosting the confidence to buy in the rubber market. However, the new rubber supply is gradually increasing as the rubber - tapping season arrives. The downstream tire industry's procurement demand is expected to increase. Despite a 0.74% decline in the 2509 contract on Tuesday night, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Rising; Reference view: Stronger operation [1][7] - Core logic: Although macro factors are turning optimistic, the US debt crisis in June may cause a negative impact. OPEC+ is increasing production, and oil demand is expected to be weak. But the news of Israel's possible attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has driven up oil prices. Despite a 0.86% decline in the 2507 contract on Tuesday night, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Wednesday [7]