Group 1 - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed commitment to continue investing in the Chinese capital market during his visit to Beijing, indicating a potential easing of US-China relations [1][2] - Dimon highlighted the positive outcomes of US-China trade talks, including significant reductions in bilateral tariffs and the establishment of a trade consultation mechanism [1] - JPMorgan Chase is recognized as a "long-term investor" in China, despite facing pressures from rising tariffs and national security concerns [4] Group 2 - Dimon noted that while there are various concerns, the reality of the situation necessitates continued growth and engagement in the Chinese market [4] - JPMorgan Chase's co-CEO for China, Chen Yanni, reported an increase in foreign direct investment and a broad recovery in market liquidity and trading volume in China [5] - Following the Geneva trade talks, foreign investment institutions, including JPMorgan, have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025 from 4.6% to 4.8% [5]

解锁【第一财经智享会员】实时解读市场动态，把握投资先机。 5月23日，三大股指集体低开，上证指数开盘报3376.87点， 跌0.1% ，深成指开盘报 10210.62点， 跌0.09% ，创业板指开盘报2043.2点， 跌0.12% 。NMN概念、跨境支 付、燃气板块表现活跃，兵装重组、港口航运、贵金属、互联网电商板块跌幅居前。 今日嘉宾观点 金元证券首席投资顾问徐传豹认为， 当前,中美关系已由前期的对抗态势进入阶段性缓和期 然而，在此缓和阶段，双方能否达成实质性且互利共赢的协议仍存在不确定性。 受此影响， 市场多空双方均持谨慎态度，短期内难以形成明确方向性突破，预计市场 * * * * * * 。 针对当 前市场环境，我们对投资者的操作建议如下:建议重点配置 * * * * * * 标的。 所 谓 " 强 " ， 不 仅 体现在技术面上处于上升通道，更需关注其基本面特质-- * * * * * * 品种。 对于符合上述标准 且技术形态保持完好的个股，投资者可考虑继续持有;反之，对于缺乏基本面支撑的题材炒作 个股，或已呈现技术性走弱的标的，建议 * * * * * * ， * * * * * * 。 【解锁隐 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the short - term trend is downward, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is weakly oscillatory due to factors like the easing of Sino - US relations and the adjustment of the US sovereign credit rating [1][3] - For nickel, a wait - and - see stance is also advised. The short - term trend is downward, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is weakly oscillatory because of the strong upstream and weak downstream in the industry [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: weakly oscillatory; Reference view: wait - and - see [1][3] - **Core Logic**: Last week, the overall gold price trended downward. The decline was due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduced market risk - aversion demand. The rebound was caused by the recession expectation due to the US economic slowdown. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, which supported the gold price. In the short term, the gold price rebounded after reaching the bottom and had strong support at the $3200 level [3] Nickel - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: weakly oscillatory; Reference view: wait - and - see [1][5] - **Core Logic**: Since last week, the positive macro factors at home and abroad have not significantly pushed up the nickel price, indicating that the industrial fundamentals are suppressing the upward movement. The strong upstream mining end supports the futures price, while the weak downstream demand exerts pressure. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the technical support at the 123,000 level [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For gold 2508, short - term is expected to decline, medium - term to fluctuate, and intraday to decline, with a suggestion to wait and see due to the easing of Sino - US relations which is negative for gold prices [1] - For nickel 2506, short - term is expected to decline, medium - term to fluctuate, and intraday to be weakly fluctuating, with a suggestion to wait and see because of strong upstream nickel mines and weak downstream stainless steel [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, gold prices initially dropped nearly 2% in the Asian morning session, with New York gold approaching $3100, then rebounded, turning from decline to increase, and New York gold regained the $3200 mark with an amplitude of over $100 [3] - **Driving Logic**: The initial decline was due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the expectation of a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, and the improvement of global geopolitical situation, which reduced the demand for safe - haven assets. The subsequent rebound was because the Russia - Ukraine peace talks were postponed to Friday and neither leader would attend, which dispelled the expectation of a quick peace agreement, leading to the return of safe - haven funds. Also, poor US economic data, including retail data and PPI index falling short of expectations, increased the recession expectation and provided upward momentum for gold prices [3] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term gold prices have bottomed out and rebounded, with significant differences between bulls and bears. It is advisable to focus on the multi - empty game around the $3200 level of New York gold [3] Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: Since this week, the main nickel futures price has been broadly fluctuating in the range of 123,000 - 126,000 yuan [5] - **Driving Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector has been fluctuating upward due to internal and external macro - level positives, but nickel has been relatively weak. This is mainly because nickel prices are greatly affected by the industrial fundamentals, with strong upstream mines providing support and weak downstream demand exerting pressure. With a good macro - environment and neutral industrial performance, nickel prices may fluctuate strongly [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Today, copper prices continued to decline, with the main contract price falling below the 78,000 yuan mark in the afternoon. The recent upward trend in copper prices was largely due to the easing of Sino-US relations, while today's decline was affected by the sharp drop in gold prices and the increase in electrolytic copper social inventory. With the industry's low inventory pattern and the warming of the internal and external macro atmosphere, copper prices are expected to maintain a strong operation. Attention can be paid to the long-short game at the 78,000 yuan level [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly above 20,200 yuan and weakened slightly in the afternoon. The recent upward trend in aluminum prices was largely due to the easing of Sino-US relations. With the low inventory pattern, the warming macro atmosphere promoted the rebound of aluminum prices. In the short term, the futures price broke through the 20,000 yuan mark, and short - sellers had a strong willingness to close positions. The futures price is expected to maintain a strong operation. If it falls, attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices showed a downward trend, with an obvious plunge before the noon closing and stabilized with increased positions in the afternoon. From a macro perspective, the internal and external macro - benefits did not significantly boost nickel prices, which largely indicated that the industrial fundamentals of nickel prices were suppressing the upward movement of nickel prices. Overall, the strong upstream mine end provided support for the futures price, while the weak downstream demand exerted pressure on the futures price. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support at the 123,000 yuan level [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On May 15th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 135,700 tons, a cumulative increase of 10,800 tons compared to the 12th. Codelco will cooperate with Rio Tinto to build a copper "mining area" around the Nuevo Cobre project in the Atacama region of northern Chile. Codelco holds about 43% of the shares, and Rio Tinto holds about 58%. Ivanhoe's Makoko mining area in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has a total copper content of 9.37 million tons, 89% higher than the estimated 5 million tons in November 2023. The inferred resource volume of the Makoko mine is 27.7 million tons with a copper grade of 2.79%, and the speculative resource volume is 4.937 billion tons with a copper grade of 1.7%. Morgan Stanley expects the average copper price in the second half of 2025 to be $9,225 per ton [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: Morgan Stanley expects the average aluminum price in the second half of 2025 to be $2,325 per ton [9]. - **Nickel**: On May 15th, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the main premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,530 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,630 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +2,700 yuan/ton, with a price of 128,030 yuan/ton; for nickel beans, it was -900 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,430 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][45].

Group 1 - The postponement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations by major institutions is seen as a negative factor for gold prices, indicating an improved outlook for U.S.-China relations and economic prospects in the next 90 days [2] - President Trump is advocating for immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, expressing dissatisfaction with the current economic situation and inflation rates [3] - The probability of a rate cut in the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 17 has decreased to 60%, down from over 100% two weeks ago, suggesting a potential delay in rate cuts until December [5] Group 2 - U.S. companies are utilizing a 90-day window to stockpile products in anticipation of potential tariff increases, coinciding with the traditional shipping peak season, which may lead to increased demand and higher shipping costs [6] - The average shipping time for trans-Pacific trade is 22 days, prompting shippers to maximize cargo transport within the 90-day period, potentially leading to an earlier peak season this year [6] - There is an expectation for companies to increase inventory levels to 3-6 months, reflecting the urgency to avoid empty shelves and rising shipping costs [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 14 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜铝突破上行 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价增仓上行，主力期价突破 7.8 万关口，日内维持强势运 行，午后再度增仓上行，逼近 7.9 万关口。近期铜价上行很大程度上 受益于中美关系缓和。产业低库存格局下，内外宏观氛围回暖，预 计铜价维持强势运行，上方关注 7.9-8 万关口压力。 沪铝 昨夜铝价增仓上行，突破 2 万关口，日内维持强势上行，但持仓 量持续下降。近期铝价上行很大程度上受益于中美关系缓和。低库存 格局下，宏观氛围回暖推动铝价反弹。短期期价突 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend, with the main contract closing above the 78,000 yuan mark. The recent upward movement of copper prices is largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations. Although the rebound of the overseas US dollar index and the decline of gold prices at high levels put some pressure on copper prices, in the context of low industrial inventories and a warming macro - environment, copper prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated around the 20,000 yuan mark. The recent increase in aluminum prices is also largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations. In a low - inventory situation, the warming macro - environment has pushed up aluminum prices. However, the short - term price rebound to the 20,000 - yuan mark faces technical pressure, and upstream electrolytic aluminum plants have a strong hedging intention due to high profits. Continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 20,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices showed a weak and volatile trend, with continuous increase in positions. After a short - term rebound to the high in April, nickel prices fell back. The market's increasing expectation of the Philippine ore - ban policy has largely driven the nickel price to bottom out and rebound, while the long - term oversupply of nickel elements suppresses the nickel price. It is expected that the futures price will tend to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support at last week's low [6]. Industry Dynamics Summary - **Copper**: On May 12, the social inventory of electrolytic copper by Mysteel was 124,900 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons compared to the 6th [8]. - **Nickel**: On May 12, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2506 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,750 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,850 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,700 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,250 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,650 yuan/ton [9]. Related Charts Summary Copper - **Copper Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the basis and the spot tax - inclusive average price of 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai [10]. - **Copper Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of SHFE copper and the main continuous contract [15]. - **Domestic Visible Inventory of Electrolytic Copper**: It includes social inventory and bonded - area inventory [12]. - **Overseas Copper Exchange Inventory**: Relevant inventory data from overseas exchanges [17]. - **LME Copper Cancellation Ratio**: The chart shows the cancellation ratio of LME copper and inventory [13]. - **SHFE Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: The chart shows the SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [18]. Aluminum - **Aluminum Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the average price of aluminum premium and discount in the Yangtze River spot market and the futures closing price of aluminum [22]. - **Domestic Social Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum**: The chart shows the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum [24]. - **Aluminum Oxide Trend**: The chart shows the futures closing price and the national average price of aluminum oxide [26]. - **Aluminum Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of aluminum futures [28]. - **Overseas Exchange Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum**: It includes LME and COMEX inventories [33]. - **Aluminum Oxide Inventory**: The chart shows the total inventory and port inventory of aluminum oxide [31]. Nickel - **Nickel Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the basis and the spot tax - inclusive average price of 1 electrolytic nickel in Shanghai [34]. - **LME Inventory**: The chart shows the LME nickel inventory and cancellation ratio [36]. - **LME Nickel Trend**: The chart shows the LME nickel 3M electronic - trading price and the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread [38]. - **Nickel Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of SHFE nickel [40]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The chart shows the SHFE nickel inventory and warehouse receipt inventory [42]. - **Nickel Ore Port Inventory**: The chart shows the nickel ore port inventory [44].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of Shanghai copper futures fluctuated upwards, with the main contract price breaking through the 78,000 yuan mark and open interest increasing. The upward movement was largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations and the low inventory pattern in the industry. It is expected to maintain a strong trend [5]. - The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum futures rose with decreasing open interest, recovering most of last week's losses and approaching the 20,000 yuan mark. The upward movement was also due to the easing of Sino - US relations and the low inventory pattern. The pressure at the 20,000 yuan mark can be monitored in the short term [6]. - After a strong rebound on the night of last Friday, the nickel price fluctuated narrowly around 126,000 yuan. The market's expectation of the Philippine nickel ore export ban from June 2025 pushed the nickel price to rebound. The nickel ore market is strong, while the demand is weak. Technically, the price may face some pressure at the late - April high [7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics Copper - On May 12, Rio Tinto signed a final joint - venture agreement with Sumitomo Metal Mining of Japan for the Winu copper - gold project in Western Australia. Sumitomo will pay up to $430.4 million to acquire a 30% stake in the project [9]. Aluminum - In April 2025, China exported 518,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 0.37%. From January to April, the cumulative export was 1.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7% [10]. Nickel - On May 12, for the Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract of refined nickel, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 128,240 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,340 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +2,700 yuan/ton, with a price of 128,740 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,140 yuan/ton [11]. Group 4: Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][14]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [25][31][27]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].