Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each category [1]. - Different sectors show diverse trends. For example, in the stock index futures market, major indices declined, while in the precious metals market, prices continued to rise due to weak US employment data and increased expectations of interest rate cuts [2][7]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Major indices opened higher and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16%, and most sectors adjusted. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined, and the basis of the main contracts decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment improved as the stock market fell. Treasury bond futures rose across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally declined. It is recommended to use interval operations and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of the TL contract [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to rise. Weak US employment data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the decline in US Treasury yields increased the demand for precious metals. Gold reached a record high of $3559.02 per ounce, and silver closed at $41.19 per ounce. It is expected that gold may rise above $3600, and silver may quickly rise above $42, but caution is needed [7][8][9]. Container Shipping on European Routes - The spot price of container shipping continued to decline, and the futures market was expected to fluctuate. The 12 - 10 month - spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [10][11]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The center of copper price has risen due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations. However, the upside space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The main contract is recommended to operate in the range of 79000 - 81000 yuan/ton [12][13][16]. - **Alumina**: The market presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan/ton and the actual start of peak - season demand [19][20][21]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc output is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 21500 - 23000 yuan/ton [23][24][26]. - **Tin**: The supply remains tight, and the price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to adjust in the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectations and import/export conditions [29][30][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to raw material dynamics and the realization of peak - season demand [32][33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to fluctuate widely after the price center moves down, and it is recommended to wait and see. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [36][37][38]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand for rebar declined, and the steel price maintained a weak downward trend. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [39][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment volume increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume rose. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [41][42][43]. - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [44][46]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants was implemented, but the eighth round was blocked. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coke [47][48][49]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: Sino - US trade has not made substantial progress, and the domestic bullish expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on the dips [50][52]. - **Hogs**: The supply - demand contradiction in the market is limited. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the support levels of 13500 for the 11 - contract and 13800 for the 01 - contract [53][54]. - **Corn**: The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust, and the medium - term trend is weak. It is recommended to go short on the rallies [55][56].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: Soybean No. 1 (★★★), Soybean Meal (★★★), Soybean Oil (★★★), Palm Oil (★★★), Corn (★★★), Egg (★★★) - **Sell**: Rapeseed Meal (★☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (★☆☆), Live Pig (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The market for agricultural products shows a mixed trend, with different commodities facing various supply - demand situations and policy impacts. Short - term price movements are affected by factors such as inventory changes, seasonal harvests, and trade policies, while long - term trends are influenced by global supply - demand fundamentals and biofuel development [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - The short - term price of the domestic soybean main contract continues to rebound due to short - covering. The auction turnover rate has increased, and market marginal supply has risen. The growth of domestic soybeans is good, and new beans will be listed in late September [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The bull market for domestic soybean meal needs to wait due to Sino - US trade uncertainties. The external market shows an oil - strong and meal - weak situation. Domestic soybean meal's decline is limited by import costs. The supply in Q4 is sufficient, but there may be a supply gap in Q1 next year if Sino - US trade issues remain unresolved. The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the long term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil shows a rebound trend after a short - term price correction. Soybean oil prices are still weak. The price of US soybeans is under pressure but also has support. The near - term supply of domestic soybeans is abundant, while the long - term supply is affected by Sino - US trade. Considering the long - term development of biofuels, it is advisable to buy soybean and palm oil at low prices [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed products market shows a narrow - range fluctuation. The global rapeseed supply will be in a stage of relaxation, and the domestic rapeseed market is expected to be in a tight - balance state. The rapeseed futures may stabilize in the short term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures continue to rebound due to feed enterprises' inventory replenishment. The new - season corn is expected to be relatively abundant. After the enthusiasm for new - grain acquisition fades, the futures may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pig - The spot price of live pigs shows a pattern of strong in the south and weak in the north. The futures price continues to be weak. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in September, but demand may be supported by festivals. The pig price is under downward pressure [8] Egg - The spot price of eggs is stable, and the futures price rebounds. The elimination of old hens has accelerated, and the number of newly - laid hens is expected to decline. It is advisable to consider long positions in the far - month contracts for next year's H1 [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial instruments, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price outlooks for each category, suggesting trading strategies based on the analysis. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 11 contract up 1.34%. The oil market is sensitive to geopolitical events. After Q3, due to OPEC+ production increase and weaker demand, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Consider shorting SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel with protective options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and China's ship - fuel sales declined, but domestic refinery production was also low. With crude oil's geopolitical premium and delayed LU supply pressure, both LU and FU strengthened [22]. - **Asphalt**: In the traditional peak season, demand is increasing seasonally, and inventories are decreasing. The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton and is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term. Consider a spread strategy on BU and SC10 [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the off - season, it shows resilience. With rising import costs and rebounding demand, the spot price is up. The high - basis situation persists, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, the US manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, increasing the Fed's rate - cut expectation and boosting precious metals. Hold long positions and focus on US employment data [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices broke through key levels. Short - term prices are affected by the Fed's rate cut, consumption substitution, and capital resonance. Hold short - term long positions and pay attention to call - option premiums [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum was strongly oscillating. Downstream开工率 has been rising seasonally, and inventory is likely to remain low. It will test the resistance at 21000 yuan in the short - term [5]. - **Alumina**: Production capacity is at a historical high, and supply surplus is emerging. The price is weak but may not fall deeply below the high - cost capacity. Watch the support at 2830 - 3000 yuan [6]. - **Zinc**: In September, refinery maintenance will reduce output, and low inventory will drive a short - term rebound. However, the mid - term outlook is bearish, and consider shorting at 2.3 - 2.35 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Due to political unrest in Indonesia, nickel prices rebounded. With inventory declines, the short - term market is oscillating instead of bearish [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin recovered some losses. There is a shortage of concentrates, but watch inventory and capital changes. Hold short - term long positions above 27.1 million [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price declined, and the market was quiet. Inventory changes were mixed. The market is oscillating [12]. - **Polysilicon**: It oscillated below 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot price rose, but actual trading needs attention. The PS2511 price is expected to face pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply surplus will intensify in September, and the price may fall after the short - term rally. Watch the support at 8300 yuan/ton [14]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices rebounded. Rebar demand and production increased, while hot - rolled coil's decreased. Inventory is rising. The market is under pressure, and the decline may slow down. Watch the demand improvement and production restrictions [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight iron ore price rebounded. Global shipments increased, and domestic arrivals also rose. Demand may decline due to the parade. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: The price oscillated widely. The first round of price cuts was partially implemented, and inventory decreased slightly. The price is under short - term pressure and is highly volatile [17]. - **Coking Coal**: Similar to coke, the price oscillated widely. Production increased slightly, and inventory decreased. It is under short - term pressure and volatile [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. Manganese ore prices may have limited downside. Observe the support at the previous low [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is rising, and demand is fair. Inventory is slightly decreasing [20]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: MSC announced empty - sailing plans for the Golden Week. The spot price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited. The market is expected to oscillate and be affected by other alliances' plans [21]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The futures price oscillated. Daily production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. - **Methanol**: Coastal available supply is abundant, and inventory is rising. However, with downstream demand expected to increase, the market outlook is optimistic [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price rebounded. Supply increased, and demand was weak. The market may improve in Q3. Watch downstream demand and oil prices [27]. - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene cannot support styrene effectively. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene production inventory is controllable, but downstream acceptance is limited. Polyethylene demand is mixed, and polypropylene supply pressure is increasing [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising. It may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda is supported by demand but may face supply pressure later, with a wide - range oscillation expected [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Prices oscillated at a low level. Demand is improving, but the actual supply - demand situation has limited improvement. Watch device operations, oil prices, and polyester load [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated around 4350 yuan/ton. Supply increased, and demand was stable but weakening. Watch new capacity and policy changes [32]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber supply - demand is stable, and it may be bullish in the medium - term if demand improves. Bottle - chip has over - capacity issues [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, the soybean meal market may oscillate in the short - term. It may be bullish in the medium - to long - term, but pay attention to supply in Q1 next year [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Prices rebounded after a short - term decline. Consider buying at low prices in the long - term, but manage risks [38]. - **Soybean (Domestic)**: The price rebounded as short - positions were reduced. Policy auctions increased supply, and new beans will be on the market soon. Watch the new - bean price [39]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak. Feed companies may build inventory at 2150 yuan/ton. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, the price may be weak at the bottom [40]. - **Pig**: Spot prices were mixed, and futures prices were weak. Supply may increase in September, but demand may also rise during holidays. Prices may face downward pressure [41]. - **Egg**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices rebounded. The industry is in capacity reduction, and consider long - positions in far - term contracts [42]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell due to better weather. Chinese cotton may oscillate, with support below and limited upside in the short - term. Consider buying on dips [43]. - **Sugar**: US sugar may face pressure, and the domestic market has limited upside. The price is expected to oscillate [44]. - **Apple**: The price oscillated at a high level. Early - maturing apples had high prices, but supply may be stable. Short - term price may rise, but be cautious in the long - term [45]. - **Wood**: The price oscillated. Supply may remain low, and inventory pressure is small. Wait and see for now [46]. - **Pulp**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Adopt a wait - and - see or range - trading strategy [47]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: The stock market oscillated, and futures contracts showed different trends. There are short - term macro uncertainties. Increase allocation in technology - growth sectors and also consider consumption and cyclical sectors [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures oscillated flat. US employment data and Fed's stance affect the market. Consider curve - steepening strategies in short - term hedging [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: ★☆☆ [1] - **豆粕**: ★☆☆ [1] - **豆油**: ★★★ [1] - **棕榈油**: ★☆☆ [1] - **菜粕**: ★☆☆ [1] - **菜油**: ★☆☆ [1] - **玉米**: ★☆☆ [1] - **生猪**: ★☆☆ [1] - **鸡蛋**: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market of agricultural products is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade. Different products have different trends in the short - term and long - term, and some products may be suitable for long - term investment, while others need to wait for better opportunities [2][3][4] Summaries by Category Soybean - related - **Soybean (Domestic)**: After the decline in prices digested the negative news, the short positions in the domestic soybean main contract decreased, and the price rebounded. The policy - side is holding auctions, with an increase in the auction success rate. The marginal supply in the market has increased, and market participants will conduct competitive procurement this week. The domestic soybean crop is expected to be good, and new soybeans will be on the market in late September. Attention should be paid to the opening price of new - season soybeans [2] - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: Internationally, due to bio - diesel policies, the global oil market is strong, which may drive up soybean crushing volume, resulting in an "oil - strong, meal - weak" situation. In the domestic market, the US tariff policy will continue to affect the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. The high cost of imported Brazilian beans limits the decline of domestic bean meal. Although the soybean arrival volume in the next three months is sufficient, there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is cautiously bullish [3] Oil - related - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to supply and has support from demand. The short - term domestic soybean supply is still loose, and the long - term supply is affected by Sino - US trade. The supply - demand situation of palm oil in Malaysia has improved, and that in Indonesia is better. Considering the long - term development of bio - diesel in the US and Indonesia, investors can consider buying bean and palm oil at low prices while controlling risks [4] Rapeseed - related - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed futures in the international market is under short - term pressure as rapeseeds in Canada, the EU, and Australia are about to be harvested. The supply of rapeseed will be relatively abundant. China's rapeseed imports are diversifying, and the domestic rapeseed supply - demand is expected to be in a tight - balance state. The short - term futures market may stabilize, but attention should be paid to the negative impact of the international rapeseed harvest [6] Other Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures have shown signs of stabilization. The new - season corn crop is expected to be good due to favorable weather. Some traders in northern ports have expanded their warehouses in advance. The short - term market may be stable, and the long - term market may be weak [7] - **Pigs**: On Monday, the main contract of live - hog futures opened high and closed low. The pig - to - grain ratio is still below 6:1. The supply of live - hogs is expected to increase in September, but demand may also be supported by festivals. The price of live - hogs may still face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to policies and the release of supply [8] - **Eggs**: On Monday, the egg futures market continued to increase positions. The spot price of eggs did not rise significantly during the back - to - school season. Due to continuous losses, the number of old hens being culled has increased, and the number of new - laying hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year. If the spot price of eggs does not rebound in September, more old hens may be culled around the Mid - autumn Festival. For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, investors can consider going long, while for the near - month contracts, attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Grains and Oilseeds - Domestic two - meal decline space is limited, and it's advisable to wait for stabilization and go long at low levels in the 3000 - 3050 range. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal spread may widen further [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - Pig spot prices are stabilizing with minor fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the support around 13800 for the 01 contract [3]. Corn - Spot corn prices are weak, and the futures price has rebounded. In the medium - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is significant, and the futures valuation may move down towards the new - season cost [6]. Oils - Palm oil maintains a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For soybean oil, the industrial consumption in the US is uncertain, and the basis quote will be boosted after the factory inventory decreases [9]. Sugar - Raw sugar is under pressure from increased supply expectations, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillating weakly [11]. Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and new - cotton prices will face pressure after listing [12]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to maintain a bearish trend [15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Grains and Oilseeds - **Prices**: Soybean meal spot price in Jiangsu is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal spot price in Jiangsu dropped 2.34% to 2500 yuan/ton; soybean spot price in Harbin is 3980 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal increased 4.17% to 225; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal increased 36.36% to 75 [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract basis increased 42.42% to - 190; the price of the 2511 contract dropped 1.13% to 13590 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in various regions showed minor fluctuations, with the sample - point daily slaughter volume increasing 0.32% to 142240 heads [3]. Corn - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract increased 0.97% to 2185; the 11 - 3 spread increased 40% to - 15 [6]. - **Spot**: The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton; the north - south trade profit decreased 52.63% [6]. Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8740 yuan/ton, down 1.14%; the basis decreased 13.73% to 204 [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 9470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis decreased 4.35% to 46 [9]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 10020 yuan/ton, down 0.7%; the basis decreased 127.85% to 79 [9]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract dropped 0.32% to 5602 yuan/ton; the 1 - 9 spread increased 9.09% to - 10 [11]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning dropped 0.17% to 5910 yuan/ton; the import volume increased 160% to 130,000 tons [11]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract dropped 0.51% to 13690 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread decreased 20.63% to - 380 [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B dropped 0.06% to 15240 yuan/ton; the commercial inventory decreased 16.9% to 182.02 million tons [12]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract dropped 1.83% to 2843 yuan/500KG; the 9 - 10 spread decreased 10.13% to - 87 [14]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area dropped 0.81% to 3.26 yuan/jin; the breeding profit increased 20.84% to - 17.89 yuan/feather [14][15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Ratings**: None - **Bearish Ratings**: None - **Neutral or Wait - and - See Ratings**: Corn,生猪,鸡蛋,菜粕,菜油,豆油,棕榈油,豆粕,豆一 (where one star indicates a weak bullish or bearish bias with low operability on the market, and white stars indicate a balanced state with poor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products in the futures market show different trends, affected by factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, weather, and international trade negotiations. For some products, there are potential investment opportunities, while for others, it is advisable to wait and see [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 【豆一】 - The price of soybeans is weakly declining. Policy - driven continuous auction sales of soybeans increase supply - side pressure, and demand is weak. The upcoming China - US trade negotiations are reflected in the market, with domestic soybeans showing stronger performance than imported soybeans, causing the price spread between domestic and imported soybeans to rebound from a low level. Short - term focus should be on soybean policy orientation [2] 【大豆&豆粕】 - Today, the Dalian soybean meal futures fluctuated weakly. The national spot price slightly declined. A vice - minister of the Ministry of Commerce went to Canada, which may signal an improvement in China - Canada relations. Global oils are strengthening due to bio - diesel policies, which may drive up soybean crushing. China's soybean supply is relatively sufficient in the third quarter but may face a shortage in the first quarter of next year. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas poses challenges to new - season crops. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a cautious bullish view on Dalian soybean meal [3] 【豆油&棕榈油】 - Soybean and palm oil futures decreased with reduced positions. The upcoming China - US trade negotiations are reflected in the market. Malaysian palm oil production decreased month - on - month. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle. Long - term development trends of bio - diesel in the US and Indonesia still exist. It is advisable to consider buying at low prices while controlling risks. Short - term focus should be on soybean policy orientation [4] 【菜粕&菜油】 - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures decreased with reduced positions. The market is still watching the soybean situation in China - US economic and trade negotiations. The rapeseed market is in a state of inventory reduction, and far - month ship purchases are limited. The average expected production data from Statistics Canada is 20.3 million tons, but there is a possibility of underestimation. In the short - term, the price fluctuation range of rapeseed products is narrowing, and it is advisable to wait and see [6] 【玉米】 - Today, the Dalian corn futures continued to rebound with reduced positions. The current futures price is in line with market expectations for the new - season corn opening price. This year, the domestic corn - producing areas have good weather, and new - season corn may have a bumper harvest. Under the background of falling US corn prices, Dalian corn futures may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] 【生猪】 - Live hog futures continued to decline weakly. The spot price was slightly adjusted. The pig - grain ratio is below 6:1. From the perspective of new - born piglets, the supply of live hogs in the second half of the year is high. The spot price of live hogs is expected to continue to decline weakly in the medium - term. Policy aims to promote industry capacity reduction, but the inflection point of capacity reduction has not been seen. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the game between fundamentals and policies [8] 【鸡蛋】 - Egg futures continued to decline sharply with increased positions. The spot price was stable with slight declines in some areas. There may be a seasonal rebound in egg prices from late August to September. In the medium - to - long - term, there are signs of accelerated culling of old hens. The probability of significant capacity reduction in the second half of the year is high, and the inflection point of the egg price cycle may occur in the second half of the year. It is advisable to consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year at low prices [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the market focuses on upcoming US economic data for policy clues, with concerns about the Fed's independence. The US dollar index and Treasury yields are generally weak, and global risk appetite has increased. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The 90 - day extension of the tariff truce between China and the US and increased US easing expectations reduce short - term external risks and strengthen domestic easing expectations. However, short - term market sentiment has cooled, and domestic risk appetite has significantly declined. The market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening marginally but sentiment weakening. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - For assets, the stock index has corrected from its short - term high, and short - term cautious observation is recommended. Treasury bonds are oscillating at a high level, and cautious observation is needed. In the commodity sector, black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and precious metals are all in short - term oscillations, and cautious observation is advised [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as clothing and home textiles, biomedicine, and liquor, the domestic stock market fell sharply. The economic data in July slowed down and missed expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies in September. The 90 - day extension of the tariff truce and increased US easing expectations reduce external risks and strengthen domestic easing expectations. However, short - term market sentiment has cooled. The trading logic focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening but sentiment weakening. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals oscillated narrowly on Wednesday. The market focuses on Friday's PCE data to assess the Fed's policy path. Economists expect a 2.6% increase in PCE in July, the same as in June. After Powell's dovish signal, the market expects a more than 87% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. The manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high, but initial jobless claims rose. The increase in key capital goods orders in July exceeded expectations. The rate - cut expectation is further strengthened, providing short - term support for gold, but beware of the Fed's changing attitude [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets weakened, with low trading volumes. The stock market correction increased risk - aversion sentiment, dragging down the black sector. Real - world demand continued to weaken, inventories of construction steel and hot - rolled coils increased, and apparent consumption declined. Supply increased slightly. Near the end of the month, there is more pressure for capital repatriation and sales. The steel market is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the spot price of iron ore remained flat, and the futures price declined slightly. With high steel mill profits, hot - metal production continued to decline slightly. In the next week, northern regions will have different degrees of production restrictions, and steel mills are cautious in purchasing. Global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. Mainstream Australian powder resources are stably supplied, but traders are reluctant to sell, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The port inventory decreased slightly on Monday. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. The production of construction steel and hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the demand for ferroalloys is currently okay. The price of silicon manganese 6517 is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the north and 5770 - 5820 yuan/ton in the south. In the south, production is increasing, but factories are in a wait - and - see state due to the falling futures price. The price of manganese ore is weak. The price of silicon iron in the main production areas is 5350 - 5450 yuan/ton for 72 - grade natural lumps and 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton for 75 - grade. Some silicon - iron enterprises are profitable and have high production enthusiasm. Ferroalloy prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda - ash contract oscillated weakly. Last week, production increased due to the return from maintenance. In the new capacity - release cycle, there is supply pressure, and the oversupply pattern remains. New devices will be put into production in the fourth quarter. High supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, and downstream demand support is still weak. Profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and the supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract oscillated weakly. Last week, production and the number of operating production lines remained stable. The real - estate industry is still weak, and demand is hard to improve. Downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, and overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as the glass price fell. With stable supply and limited demand growth, glass prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: US data shows that core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and military equipment) increased by 1.1% last month. As factors such as export rush, PV pre - installation, and the marginal effect of trade - in policies decline, domestic demand will weaken marginally, and the strong copper price will not last [11]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, the aluminum price rose and then fell. There was no news for the night - session surge, which was likely driven by the copper price. The aluminum price increase was greater than that of copper, but it fell during the day as commodities weakened. Aluminum's fundamentals changed little, with social inventory increasing by 20,000 tons and a cumulative increase of 170,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory also continued to increase. There is limited medium - term upward space, and it will oscillate in the short term, lacking a strong downward driver but with a weakening rebound foundation [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants face raw - material shortages, with rising production costs. It is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost support, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand [11]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The mine supply is currently tight, but the reduction in refined tin production is less than expected. Some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance, and capacity utilization may decline. With the issuance of mining licenses, the mine supply will tend to be loose. African tin imports decreased in July due to transportation and power issues. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak. PV pre - installation has overdrawn future demand, and new PV installations are weakening. The operating rates of PV glass and PV solder strips have declined. Overall, downstream orders are scarce. The price decline has stimulated downstream restocking, and inventory decreased by 802 tons to 9,278 tons, but downstream buyers are still cautious, only making purchases for immediate needs. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, supported by smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weak demand [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, the main lithium - carbonate contract 2511 fell by 0.23%, with a new settlement price of 80,000 yuan/ton and a reduction of 3,104 lots in weighted contracts, and a total position of 757,900 lots. The battery - grade lithium - carbonate price is 79,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the industrial - grade is 78,450 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CIF price of Australian lithium spodumene is 920 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The profit from purchasing lithium spodumene for production is 1,988 yuan/ton. After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main industrial - silicon contract 2511 fell by 1.56%, with a new settlement price of 8,540 yuan/ton, a position of 516,800 lots in weighted contracts, and a reduction of 9,286 lots. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 is 9,300 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the futures price is at a discount of 775 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China 421 and East China oxygen - containing 553 is 250 yuan/ton. Recently, black metals and polysilicon have weakened, and industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon contract 2511 fell by 4.89%, with a new settlement price of 49,715 yuan/ton, a position of 334,600 lots in weighted contracts, and an increase of 14,137 lots. The price of N - type re -投料 is 49,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the P - type cauliflower - like material is 30,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of N - type silicon wafers is 1.24 yuan/piece (unchanged), the M10 single - crystal TOPCon battery is 0.292 yuan/watt (unchanged), and the 210mm N - type module is 0.68 yuan/watt (unchanged). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased to 6,880, reflecting increased hedging pressure. The polysilicon output in August is approaching 130,000 tons, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It broke through support in the short term, with a bearish direction. Attention should be paid to the spot support below [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: US crude and fuel inventories decreased, alleviating concerns about imminent supply over - capacity. Although the absolute price is still in a range, the spread of WTI has widened to the largest in over a week, and Cushing inventory decreased for the first time in 8 weeks, with a national inventory reduction of 2.4 million barrels, exceeding expectations. The US increased tariffs on some Indian goods, but Indian refineries plan to maintain most purchases, so short - term supply concerns are hard to ease, and there is still significant medium - and long - term downward pressure on oil prices [16]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price decreased slightly as the market followed the decline of anti - involution leading varieties. The asphalt spot market has slightly recovered, and the decline of the basis has paused. However, social and factory inventories have not significantly decreased, and profits have slightly recovered with a significant increase in production. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. With limited inventory reduction, asphalt is expected to remain in a weak oscillation pattern in the near term [16]. - **PX**: After the price increase due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance, the tight PX situation will provide obvious support at the bottom. Benefiting from petrochemical capacity adjustment, but with the PX plant load at a medium - low level, it is still in a tight pattern in the short term. The PXN spread is currently 266 US dollars, and the PX overseas price has rebounded to 864 US dollars. It is expected to oscillate in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [16]. - **PTA**: The PTA price decreased with position reduction as the market declined. However, domestic and South Korean petrochemical capacity adjustments have stabilized the energy - chemical sector in the short term. The temporary shutdown of the Huizhou plant due to environmental requirements provides some support, and the basis remains at +30. Downstream production has recovered to 90%, and the restocking pace has accelerated before the peak season. PTA may have a slight inventory reduction in September and is expected to maintain a strong oscillation pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol gave back some previous gains and oscillated narrowly in the short term. Port inventory decreased slightly to 500,000 tons. Domestic restrictions on petrochemical capacity and new - project approvals will limit supply. However, the basis has not significantly recovered. The increase in downstream production will support ethylene glycol at the bottom, but the supply pressure is still large after the resumption of synthetic - gas - based plants. It is necessary to wait for verification of peak - season demand. When going long at low prices, attention should be paid to crude - oil cost fluctuations [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price decreased slightly as the sector declined. Terminal orders have seasonally increased, and short - fiber production has slightly rebounded, with limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in production. In the medium term, short - fiber can be short - sold along with the polyester sector [18]. - **Methanol**: The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals have pressured the price. As the port price falls, the back - flow window is about to open, providing some support for the spot. MTO plants plan to restart, and the traditional downstream peak season is approaching. The methanol fundamentals show marginal improvement, but the oversupply pattern has not changed, and the price is expected to oscillate [18]. - **PP**: The increase in plant operation and upcoming new capacity have increased supply pressure. Downstream production has slightly increased, and demand is showing signs of recovery. There is significant fundamental pressure, but policy support prevents a deep decline. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be monitored for peak - season stocking [18]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is showing a turning point. The "supply - side" speculation provides some price support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term bearish. Attention should be paid to demand and stocking [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1048.25, down 1.25 or 0.12% (settlement price 1047.50). The weather in the US core soybean - producing areas in August has been favorable, and the overall soybean quality rate remains high. With the increasing likelihood of a US soybean harvest, the futures price is under pressure. Market news indicates that China will send a delegation to the US for trade negotiations this week, boosting US soybean export expectations. Additionally, increased US Treasury bond selling and a weaker US dollar provide some macro - level support for US soybeans [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure on domestic oil mills to accumulate soybean and soybean meal inventories has eased. Market news suggests that this week's China - US trade negotiations will focus on soybean purchases, further stabilizing supply expectations. In the third quarter, preventive purchases have ensured sufficient soybean supply, but supply may tighten in the fourth quarter, with stable cost - based support. Rapeseed meal currently has high - inventory circulation pressure, but with low rapeseed inventory and few far - month purchases, there is still potential for price increases. Attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [21]. - **Edible Oils**: The port inventory of rapeseed oil is continuously decreasing. With few imported rapeseed purchases and low inventory in China, the supply is expected to contract strongly. The cost expectation of soybean oil has strengthened, and a low - valuation price increase is expected. The palm oil production cycle is in progress, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. There is no short - term incremental consumption expectation from policies, and the bullish market may enter an oscillation phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The arrival of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased over the weekend, and enterprise prices were slightly reduced. In September, the pricing weight of new - season corn will increase, and the C2511 contract has entered the price range of last year's opening price, 2100 - 2200 yuan/ton. There is no pressure from a large - scale arrival as in last year, with low carry - over inventory and the risk of excessive rainfall in the main producing areas. Although the planting cost has decreased this year, due to policies to stabilize the prices of important agricultural products and increase farmers' income, it is unlikely to break through last year's price range. The futures price is currently in a relatively undervalued range, and there is no need for excessive pessimism [22]. - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs for slaughter is sufficient, and slaughterhouses have low purchasing pressure. The reduction in supply in some provinces has a limited impact on enterprise purchases, with a slight upward trend. There may be local emotional - driven price increases in the north tomorrow. In the south, demand supports the price, and the market is stable. Currently, secondary fattening is generally cautious, with limited restocking. As a result, the buffer space for large - scale future slaughter is reduced, and market pessimism about the fourth - quarter outlook is increasing [22].

Report Overview - **Title**: "Soybean Meal: US Soybeans Strong, Dalian Soybean Meal Weak, Guard Against Oversold Rebound; Soybean No.1: Affected by the Soybean Market Atmosphere, Short - term Weak" [1] - **Author**: Wu Guangjing [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) showed a slight increase due to the news of a Chinese trade representative's upcoming visit to the US, but the expected large - scale harvest of US soybeans restricted the upside potential [3]. - The soybean meal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) were weak, and there was a need to guard against an oversold rebound; the soybean No.1 futures were short - term weak under the influence of the soybean market atmosphere [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Prices - DCE Soybean No.1 2511: The daytime closing price was 3974 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan (- 0.60%); the night - session closing price was 3961 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan (- 0.68%) [1]. - DCE Soybean Meal 2601: The daytime closing price was 3081 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan (- 0.93%); the night - session closing price was 3047 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (- 1.61%) [1]. - CBOT Soybean 11: The closing price was 1049 cents/bushel, up 1.25 cents (+ 0.12%) [1]. - CBOT Soybean Meal 12: The closing price was 293.1 dollars/short ton, up 2.5 dollars (+ 0.86%) [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - **Shandong Region**: The soybean meal price was 3080 - 3100 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan to unchanged compared to the previous day. Different delivery periods had different basis levels relative to M2601 [1]. - **East China Region**: The basis levels of soybean meal in different months relative to M2601 remained unchanged [1]. - **South China Region**: The soybean meal price was 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton, down 30 - 10 yuan compared to the previous day. Different companies and delivery periods had different basis levels relative to M2601 [1]. 3.1.3 Main Industry Data - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 7.95 million tons/day on the previous trading day, compared with 11.1 million tons/day two trading days ago [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal was 98.55 million tons/week on the previous trading day, compared with 97.4 million tons/week two trading days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 26, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. The news of a Chinese trade representative's upcoming visit to Washington improved market sentiment, but the expected large - scale harvest of US soybeans restricted the upside potential [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal was 0, and the trend intensity of soybean No.1 was 0, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the daytime session of the reporting day [3].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the foreign exchange dynamics in Asia, specifically China, and the implications for the Renminbi (RMB) and capital flows [1][5][6]. Core Insights 1. **Improvement in Trade Settlement**: - China's July net FX trade settlement rose significantly to USD 60.9 billion, up from USD 44.0 billion in June, marking an 87.8% ratio of the reported trade surplus after adjusting for RMB trade settlement [2][3]. 2. **Exporters' FX Remittances**: - Exporters' FX remittances increased to 54.9% of total exports in July, compared to 46.1% in June, indicating a strong recovery in trade flow dynamics [3][4]. 3. **Corporate Demand for FX**: - Corporate demand for foreign exchange also rose, reaching 51.8% of total imports in July, up from 50.4% in June [3]. 4. **BOP Dynamics**: - The balance of payments (BOP) dynamics are improving, driven by exporters' FX remittances and a gradual decline in the USD/CNY fixing [4][6]. 5. **Capital Flow Forecast**: - An improvement in China's major capital flows is expected over the next six months, influenced by the de-escalation of US-China tariff tensions and a softer USD outlook [5][6]. 6. **Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)**: - There is a slight recovery in FDI inflows, although they remain weak, with a slowdown in FDI outflows noted [6][15]. 7. **Portfolio Inflows**: - Foreign portfolio inflows into Chinese equities have increased, with an average of USD 5.3 billion per month in the three months ending in July, attributed to improved sentiment from reduced trade tensions [15][4]. Additional Important Insights 1. **FX Deposits**: - A temporary decline in financial institutions' FX deposits was observed in July, with a modest decrease of USD 16.6 billion, following significant accumulations in previous months [9][11]. 2. **RMB Underperformance Risk**: - The potential for RMB underperformance exists if state banks continue to accumulate FX reserves, especially if the USD weakens further [6][11]. 3. **Tourism Deficit**: - The tourism deficit has remained stable, with projections indicating a slowdown in outflows in the second half of the year [8][6]. 4. **Excess FX Hoarding**: - An estimated excess FX hoarding of approximately USD 78 billion exists, which could impact future FX remittance dynamics [7][6]. 5. **Future Projections**: - The net FX trade settlement is projected to improve to a USD 307 billion surplus over the next six months, with upside risks if corporate FX hoarding is unwound more substantially [7][17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of China's foreign exchange dynamics and capital flows.

Group 1 - Trump has called for China to increase its soybean orders to four times the current amount, promising "fast service," which led to a spike in soybean prices at the Chicago futures exchange, reaching a two-week high [1] - China is the largest importer of soybeans globally, but its purchasing pace this year is the slowest since 2005, raising concerns among U.S. farmers and traders about market prospects [1][2] - The U.S. soybean industry is attempting to reduce its dependence on the Chinese market, but the significant market share of China remains crucial [3] Group 2 - In 2024, China's soybean imports are projected to reach 105 million tons, with only 22.13 million tons coming from the U.S., a 5.7% decrease year-on-year, while imports from Brazil are expected to rise by 6.7% to 74.65 million tons [2] - The U.S. soybean industry is facing a challenge in clearing over 22 million tons of accumulated soybean inventory [3] - Despite the 90-day extension of the tariff suspension, the trade situation remains uncertain, with China accelerating its imports from Brazil to mitigate risks [6]