Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need for continuous and stable macroeconomic policies to support high-quality development in China, particularly in preparation for the 15th Five-Year Plan [1][4] - The report highlights the importance of effective domestic demand stimulation, with a focus on consumer spending and investment in public services, including a notable budget allocation of approximately 90 billion yuan for a new childcare subsidy program [2][3] - The integration of domestic and foreign trade is underscored, with a call for high-level openness and support for foreign trade and investment, particularly in light of recent US-China trade discussions [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates a shift in focus towards urban renewal as a new policy goal, alongside measures to stabilize the real estate market and enhance the attractiveness of the domestic capital market [3][4] - The necessity for deepening reforms is reiterated, with an emphasis on fostering technological innovation and developing new competitive industries to enhance economic resilience [4][6] - The report outlines the performance of various provinces in terms of GDP growth, noting that several regions have exceeded their growth targets for the first half of 2025, indicating a positive economic trend [7]

Long-term Planning - The Politburo meeting in July emphasized long-term planning, focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" as a core topic for the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October[1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of new productive forces in the context of technological competition, particularly in the U.S.-China rivalry[2] Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, with a nominal GDP target of approximately 140 trillion yuan for the full year[3] - The government anticipates maintaining a steady economic trend in the second half, with a target GDP growth of around 5%[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The meeting called for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the effective implementation of existing policies rather than new stimulus measures[4] - As of June 2025, new local government special bond issuance exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase from 1.5 trillion yuan in the same period last year[4] Domestic Consumption - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to the economy in the first half of 2025, with service trade retail growing by 5.3% and goods retail by 5.1%[7] - The government aims to enhance service consumption as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, supported by policies aimed at improving living standards[7] Industry Capacity Management - The meeting stressed the need for capacity governance in key industries, particularly in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, to eliminate outdated production capacity[8] - Regulatory measures will focus on enhancing industry standards and preventing redundant capacity construction[8] Foreign Trade Support - China's exports to the U.S. saw a decline from a growth rate of 5.6% in March to -9.9% in June, while overall export growth remained at 7.2%[10] - The government is implementing financial policies to support foreign trade enterprises affected by external pressures, focusing on relief rather than filling external demand gaps[10] Capital Market Development - The government aims to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 7.8% by the end of July 2025[12] - Future policies will support technology-driven and growth-oriented enterprises, with expectations for increased dividend payouts to attract long-term capital[12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Although China's economic fundamentals were still under pressure in June, financial data showed that the effects of loose monetary policy had emerged and might be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. The third trade negotiation provided more flexibility for the market. However, after the Politburo meeting, without any unexpected policies, market bulls might take profit, and stock index futures were expected to enter a wide - range shock. It was recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) closed at 4136.4, up 1.8; IF sub - main contract (2508) closed at 4147.0, up 1.6. IH main contract (2509) closed at 2820.0, up 7.8; IH sub - main contract (2508) closed at 2821.4, up 9.0. IC main contract (2509) closed at 6215.4, down 26.2; IC sub - main contract (2508) closed at 6271.2, down 26.8. IM main contract (2509) closed at 6604.2, down 28.8; IM sub - main contract (2508) closed at 6675.6, down 29.8 [2] - IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1325.6, down 14.6; IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2124.2, down 40.8. IM - IC current - month contract spread was 404.4, down 8.8; IC - IH current - month contract spread was 3449.8, down 55.4. IM - IF current - month contract spread was 2528.6, down 49.6; IM - IH current - month contract spread was 3854.2, down 64.2 [2] - IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 41.8, up 1.0; IF next - quarter minus current - month was - 72.6, up 1.6. IH current - quarter minus current - month was - 1.2, down 3.6; IH next - quarter minus current - month was 0.2, down 3.2. IC current - quarter minus current - month was - 192.2, up 2.8; IC next - quarter minus current - month was - 316, up 5.4. IM current - quarter minus current - month was - 260.4, down 1.2; IM next - quarter minus current - month was - 425.8, down 0.8 [2] Futures Position - IF top 20 net positions were - 26,574.00, down 2773.0; IH top 20 net positions were - 14,691.00, down 262.0. IC top 20 net positions were - 11,447.00, down 1360.0; IM top 20 net positions were - 37,384.00, down 2167.0 [2] Spot Price - CSI 300 was at 4151.24, down 0.8; IF main contract basis was - 14.8, down 4.2. SSE 50 was at 2819.35, up 10.8; IH main contract basis was 0.7, down 4.8. CSI 500 was at 6314.69, down 41.5; IC main contract basis was - 99.3, down 6.2. CSI 1000 was at 6718.48, down 55.4; IM main contract basis was - 114.3, down 2.4 [2] Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 18,709.76, up 416.67; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 19,826.41, up 156.08. Northbound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 2334.31, up 67.60; reverse repurchase (maturity, operation volume, billion yuan) was - 1505.0, up 3090.0. Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) were - 399.83 and - 792.11 respectively [2] - The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) was 31.62, down 9.75; Shibor (daily, %) was 1.317, down 0.049. IO at - the - money call option closing price (2508) was 52.00, down 9.60; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) was 14.42, down 1.22. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2508) was 54.00, down 4.20; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) was 14.42, down 1.22. CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) was 6.52, up 0.02; trading volume PCR (%) was 63.76, up 5.52; open interest PCR (%) was 75.91, up 3.25 [2] Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares were at 3.80, down 1.60; technical aspect was at 3.20, down 0.90; capital aspect was at 4.40, down 2.20 [2] Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and emphasized that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in due course. It was necessary to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, boost consumption, promote "two major" construction, expand high - level opening - up, and resolve local government debt risks [2] - From July 28th to 29th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Stockholm. The two sides agreed to extend the suspension of 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days [2] Key Data to Focus On - On July 30th at 20:15, focus on US ADP employment in July; at 20:30, focus on US Q2 GDP; at 21:45, focus on Bank of Canada interest rate decision. On July 31st at 2:00, focus on Fed interest rate decision; at 9:30, focus on China's July manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI; at 10:47, focus on Bank of Japan interest rate decision; at 20:30, focus on US June PCE and core PCE. On August 1st at 9:45, focus on China's July Caixin manufacturing PMI; at 20:30, focus on US July non - farm payrolls report; at 22:00, focus on US July ISM manufacturing PMI [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The analysis focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its **fiscal policy** impacts on domestic demand, particularly in the context of the post-pandemic recovery period. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Performance Correlation**: Since 2023, there has been a significant positive correlation between the intensity of China's fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance, a trend not observed before the pandemic [1][4][27]. 2. **Three Key Periods of Fiscal Impact**: - **First Period (2023-2024)**: Initial fiscal stimulus led to a temporary economic recovery, but as fiscal spending slowed, economic momentum weakened [4][5]. - **Second Period (2024)**: Following a strong start to fiscal spending, a decline in fiscal outlays led to a synchronized downturn in economic indicators, with consumption and non-real estate investment both declining [5][6]. - **Third Period (2024-2025)**: A shift to more aggressive fiscal policies stabilized economic indicators, with fiscal spending growth rebounding significantly, leading to a recovery in consumption and non-real estate investment [6][27]. 3. **Post-Pandemic Economic Cycle**: China has entered its first economic cycle since joining the WTO that does not rely on real estate as a growth driver, marking the end of the traditional growth model [2][29]. 4. **Increased Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy**: The impact coefficient of fiscal spending on domestic demand has more than doubled post-2023 compared to pre-2020, indicating a stronger direct effect on consumption [1][17][20]. 5. **Decline of Fiscal Crowding-Out Effect**: The weakening of the fiscal crowding-out effect has enhanced the stimulative role of fiscal spending on domestic demand, especially in a low nominal interest rate environment [2][30]. 6. **Real Estate Market Adjustments**: The deep adjustment in the real estate market has diminished the traditional transmission mechanism of monetary policy, although monetary policy remains crucial for creating a conducive environment for fiscal policy [2][31][32]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Methodology for Analysis**: The study utilized a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to analyze the transmission mechanisms of fiscal policy on domestic demand, confirming the findings from linear regression analyses [23][24]. 2. **Data Handling Techniques**: The analysis involved seasonal adjustments and standardization of data to ensure comparability across different periods [12][13][14]. 3. **Future Implications**: The findings suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating domestic demand will depend on the continuity and stability of fiscal expansion, as well as the evolving economic environment post-pandemic [30][32]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the evolving role of fiscal policy in shaping China's economic landscape, particularly in the context of a shifting growth paradigm away from real estate dependency.

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of around 5% [1][2] - The economic performance exceeded external expectations, primarily driven by a rebound in consumption and exports, despite a slowdown in investment growth, particularly in real estate [1][2] Key Support Factors - The growth of 5.3% in GDP was supported by resilient exports and effective counter-cyclical policies that boosted domestic consumption and investment [2] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 2.72 percentage points to GDP, while capital formation added 1.28 percentage points, indicating that domestic demand is becoming the main driver of economic growth [2] Future Economic Outlook - Economic growth is expected to face downward pressure in the third and fourth quarters, but the good start in the first half makes the annual target of around 5% relatively controllable [3] - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies and increased fiscal support are anticipated to bolster investment and enhance consumption policies, potentially restoring domestic demand momentum [4][5] Trade Dynamics - In the first half of the year, China's exports grew by 7.2% while imports fell by 2.7%, with significant growth in machinery, high-end equipment, and "new three types" products [6][8] - The export structure is shifting towards high-tech and high-value-added products, reflecting improvements in manufacturing capabilities and competitiveness in mid-to-high-end industrial chains [6][7] Import Trends - The decline in imports is attributed to several factors, including falling international commodity prices, uneven recovery in domestic investment, and reduced reliance on imported technology and equipment due to domestic substitution [7][8] - As domestic consumption and investment gradually recover, imports of high-tech and high-quality consumer goods are expected to rebound [8] External Trade Strategy - The diversification of trade markets has shown effectiveness, with trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reaching 11.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 51.8% of China's total foreign trade [8] - ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with exports to the region growing by 13% in the first half of the year, enhancing the resilience of China's foreign trade [8]

Group 1 - The core observation indicates a narrowing year-on-year growth in social retail sales for June, with improvements noted in automotive and furniture retail [1][20]. - The report highlights that the total retail sales of consumer goods in June increased by 4.8% year-on-year, which is lower than the previous month's growth of 6.4% [12][20]. - The report recommends focusing on sectors with high or improving economic sentiment, including automotive, consumer electronics, home appliances, furniture, and leisure food [21]. Group 2 - In the information technology sector, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index both showed upward trends, indicating a positive outlook [5]. - The production of smartphones turned positive year-on-year in June, and the production of integrated circuits also saw an increase in the rolling three-month year-on-year growth rate [3][5]. - The report notes that the prices of DDR4 DRAM memory increased on a month-on-month basis, while the prices of NAND and DRAM indices also rose [5][6]. Group 3 - In the midstream manufacturing sector, the production of solar cells and industrial robots showed an expanding year-on-year growth rate in June, indicating a recovery in these areas [3][5]. - The sales of major engineering machinery companies improved year-on-year in June, reflecting a positive trend in the construction and machinery sectors [3][5]. - The report mentions that the price index for photovoltaic products increased on a week-on-week basis, suggesting a strengthening market for solar energy products [6][10]. Group 4 - The report indicates that essential consumer goods showed mixed performance, with staple food categories benefiting from rigid demand, while demand for beverages and tobacco products weakened [20]. - The "trade-in" policy continues to stimulate growth in home appliances and communication equipment, maintaining double-digit growth rates in these categories [20]. - The report highlights that the retail growth rates for gold and silver jewelry, daily necessities, and cultural office supplies have slowed down but still maintain relatively high growth [20].

Economic Growth Outlook - Morocco's economy is expected to maintain robust growth, with projected growth rates of 4.4% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, driven by agricultural recovery and strong domestic demand despite external uncertainties [1][2] Agricultural Sector - The 2024/2025 agricultural season is anticipated to see a grain production of 4.4 million tons, a 41% increase year-on-year, contributing 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025 and 0.3 percentage points in 2026 [1] - Agricultural value added is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026 [1] Non-Agricultural Sectors - The non-agricultural sectors are projected to grow by 4.3% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, with industrial, construction, and service sectors as key drivers [2] - The secondary sector is expected to contribute 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in both years, with specific growth rates of 4.2% and 4.1% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - The construction sector is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, supported by events like the Africa Cup in 2025 and the World Cup in 2030 [2] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand is anticipated to be the core growth driver, with expected growth rates of 5.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, contributing 5.8 and 5 percentage points to GDP respectively [2] - Household consumption is projected to increase by 3.6% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026, while government consumption is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 4% [2] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to grow by 9.8% in 2025 and 7.2% in 2026, following a 10.9% increase in 2024 [2] Trade and External Factors - Net exports are expected to continue dragging down economic growth, with the trade deficit projected to rise from 19.1% of GDP in 2024 to 20.1% in 2026 [3] - The current account deficit is expected to remain in the range of 1.8% to 1.9% [3] Fiscal Outlook - Fiscal revenue is projected to increase to 19.3% of GDP in 2025 and 19.4% in 2026, with the fiscal deficit rate expected to decrease from 4% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2026 [3] - Government debt is expected to improve, with domestic debt decreasing by 3 percentage points over three years [3] Monetary Policy - Non-financial sector credit is expected to grow by 7% in 2025, with broad money supply growth remaining above 6% [3] - Foreign exchange reserves are projected to cover five months of import needs [3]

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1][3] - The growth rate for Q1 was 5.4% and for Q2 was 5.2%, indicating a steady increase compared to the same period last year [3] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52%, marking it as the main driver of growth [3][4] - High-tech industries saw an increase in value added by 9.5% year-on-year, with "three new" industries expected to account for about 18% of GDP in 2024 [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment potential remains significant, despite fluctuations in investment growth due to external complexities and internal market conditions [5] - The decline in traditional industry investments, particularly in real estate, has increased pressure on overall investment growth [5] Consumer Market - The consumer market showed signs of recovery, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [6] - There are optimistic expectations for consumer growth, particularly in sectors like cultural tourism, healthcare, and elder care [6] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development companies saw a narrowing decline in funding, with total funds reaching 50,202 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.4% year-on-year [7][8] - The sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in previous periods, indicating a potential market recovery [9][10] Policy Support - Local governments are optimizing housing policies to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, which is expected to enhance market confidence [11]

Economic Growth - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, showing resilience despite external pressures [1][4] - The GDP growth rate for the first quarter was 5.4%, while the second quarter saw a slight decrease to 5.2%, indicating a stable upward trend overall [4][10] Employment - The average urban survey unemployment rate for the first half of the year was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter, with June's rate at 5.0% [5][6] Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.4% [7][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.8%, indicating stable price levels overall [7][8] International Trade - The import and export scale remained stable at over 20 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [9] - As of the end of June, foreign exchange reserves stood at 33,174 billion USD, maintaining above 3.2 trillion USD for 19 consecutive months [9] Domestic Demand - Domestic consumption was identified as the main driver of GDP growth, contributing 52% to the economic increase, with retail sales reaching 24.55 trillion yuan, a 5% year-on-year growth [11][12] - Fixed asset investment totaled 24.9 trillion yuan, with a nominal growth of 2.8%, and an actual growth of 5.3% after adjusting for price factors [12] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector showed strong performance, particularly in high-tech industries, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5% in high-tech manufacturing value added [13] Future Outlook - The economic outlook for the second half of the year remains stable, with expectations for continued growth supported by policy measures and financial support for the real economy [14][15][16]

15日，国新办就2025年上半年国民经济运行情况举行新闻发布会。 国家统计局副局长盛来运在会上表示，上半年，经济运行总体平稳、稳中向好，生产需求稳定增长，就 业形势总体稳定，居民收入继续增加，新动能成长壮大，高质量发展取得新进展，社会大局保持稳定。 经济运行"稳"的主基调没有变 盛来运表示，上半年一个很突出的特点就是经济运行"稳"。增长稳中略升，上半年GDP同比增长5.3%， 增速比去年同期和全年均提升0.3个百分点。调查失业率总体平稳，今年以来，月度调查失业率基本在 5.0%—5.4%区间波动。物价低位运行，基本平稳。国际收支基本平衡，货物贸易进出口创同期新高， 外汇储备维持在3.2万亿美元以上。从以上四大宏观指标看，经济运行"稳"的主基调没有变。 视频：国家统计局：上半年GDP同比增长5.3%来源：中国新闻网 下半年中国经济保持稳定增长有支撑 盛来运称，不少国际机构还有一些投行对全球经济预测发表展望报告，多数机构都是预测下半年全球经 济放缓，但这些机构大多不约而同调高了中国经济增长的预期。这显示了国际机构和投行对中国经济发 展的信心。从下半年情况看，尽管外部环境还有不少不确定性，内部结构调整的压力较大。但 ...