Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are supported by production cuts and strong raw materials but lack upward momentum due to weak demand. The price range for rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils between 3150 - 3350. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and avoid going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply will remain high in the short term, but the demand is limited. The price range is expected to be between 770 - 840. Short-term long positions can be attempted [4]. Coke Industry - Coke supply and demand have weakened. It is recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal prices are expected to decline. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon supply and demand contradictions still exist, and prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the Ningxia production cost [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the rebar spot price in East China increased from 3290 to 3300 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while the cost and profit of different steel products showed different trends. For example, the cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar decreased by 17 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot-rolled coils decreased by 16 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, and the rebar inventory decreased by 4.0% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 19.8%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.2%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.9%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 2.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of some varieties decreased. The 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 2.8%, the global shipping volume decreased by 3.6%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 0.5%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 4.9%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.1%, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the available days of inventory for 64 steel mills decreased by 9.5% [4]. Coke Industry Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke decreased, and the coke futures prices also decreased. The coking profit decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly coke production decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, and the steel mills' willingness to suppress coke prices increased [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.4%, and the inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased slightly, and the coking coal futures prices decreased [8]. Supply - The weekly production of raw coal and clean coal decreased slightly, and the coal mine inventory increased [8]. Demand - The pig iron output remained stable, the coking profit decreased, and the coking plant's production decreased slightly [8]. Inventory - The inventories of washing plants, coking enterprises, coal mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures increased slightly, and the spot prices remained unchanged [9]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions remained stable, and the production profits remained unchanged [9]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the ferromanganese production increased slightly [9]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, the steel mill's procurement volume decreased slightly, and the demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained stable [9]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly [9].

黑色建材日报 2025-12-30 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3130 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 12 元/吨（0.384%）。当日注册仓单 55616 吨, 环比减少 4826 吨。主力合约持仓量为 153.0792 万手，环比减少 3632 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3287 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.121%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 12 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Year-End Expectation Improvement, Alloy Continues to Rebound - Ferroalloy Weekly Report 20251229" [1] Report Analyst Information - The analyst is Peng Bohan from the Research and Consulting Department, with contact information: phone number 0371 - 58630083, email pengbh_qh@ccnew.com, professional certificate number F3076814, and investment consulting number Z0016415 [2] Core Views Silicon Iron - The main logic includes supply with a narrowing decline in production due to a rebound in the futures market; demand with a halt in the decline and a rebound in finished product output; inventory with a reduction in factory inventory; cost with a slight decline in semi - coke; and a weakening basis due to the futures market rebound. Recently, the continuous strength of precious metals and non - ferrous metals has improved the commodity sentiment. The alloy price has digested its weak supply - demand situation at a low level. With the New Year's steel procurement and winter storage expectations, it rebounded unexpectedly last week following the black series. It should be treated with a bullish view in the short term, but the industry is advised to conduct high - level hedging operations [4] Manganese Silicon - The main logic involves supply with a decline in production; demand with a narrowing decline in finished product output; inventory with continuous pressure on factory inventory; cost with firm manganese ore prices; and a repair of the futures discount. Similar to silicon iron, it also rebounded unexpectedly last week. It should be treated with a bullish view in the short term, and the industry is also advised to conduct high - level hedging operations [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Silicon Iron Supply - The weekly output of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 9.85 tons (down 1.3% week - on - week and 9.5% year - on - year). The output in November 2025 was 47.11 tons (down 6.78% month - on - month and 7.71% year - on - year) [6] Demand - The consumption of silicon iron in five major steel products was 1.8 tons (up 0.4% week - on - week and down 8.3% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 796.8 tons (down 0.1% week - on - week and 5.5% year - on - year) [9] Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 6.36 tons (down 2.4% week - on - week and 17.3% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in December were 15.4 days (down 0.39 days month - on - month and up 0.39 days year - on - year) [11] Cost - The prices of raw materials such as electricity, semi - coke, anode, and oxidized iron scale were mostly stable, with a 3.75% decline in semi - coke in some regions. The silicon iron cost in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia decreased by about 0.5%, and the profit increased by about 9 - 13% [14] Futures - Spot Relationship - The number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 11,882 (down 897 week - on - week and up 3,252 year - on - year). The basis of the 03 contract in Ningxia was - 72 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week [17] Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - The document provides historical data on total position, position of different contracts, and precipitated funds of silicon iron, but no specific latest data summaries are given other than the above - mentioned warehouse receipt and basis information [19] Manganese Silicon Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 19.25 tons (up 2.3% week - on - week and down 3.8% year - on - year). The national silicon manganese output in November was 84.88 tons (down 7.3% month - on - month and up 3.1% year - on - year) [24] Demand - The weekly consumption of silicon manganese was 11.26 tons (up 0.22% week - on - week and down 8% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 796.8 tons (down 0.1% week - on - week and 5.5% year - on - year) [26] Inventory - The enterprise sample inventory was 38.6 tons (up 0.4% week - on - week and 200% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in December were 15.52 days (down 0.3 days month - on - month and 0.3 days year - on - year) [29] Cost - The prices of electricity were stable. The prices of some manganese ores increased slightly, and the price of chemical coke in Inner Mongolia decreased by 4.5%. The silicon manganese cost in different regions decreased by about 0.3 - 0.4%, and the profit increased by about 9 - 17% [36] Futures - Spot Relationship - The number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts was 23,277 (down 374 week - on - week and 39,257 year - on - year). The 03 basis in Inner Mongolia was 100 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week [31] Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - The document provides historical data on total position, position of different contracts, and precipitated funds of silicon manganese, but no specific latest data summaries are given other than the above - mentioned warehouse receipt and basis information [38]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 12 月 26 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 74 万吨，环比下降 1.8 万 吨，同比偏低 2 万吨；焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量 109.47 万吨，周环比小幅下降 0.02 万吨。 进口方面，12 月截至 20 日，288 口岸累计蒙煤通关 26498 车，环比 11 月的高基数进一步增长 23.0%，蒙煤高进口对国内煤价形成压制。供应整体持稳，需求维持低位，焦煤供需格局中性仍 偏宽松，使得产业链各环节焦煤均有所累库。整体来看，焦煤基本面无明显利好，但元旦后下 游冬储和复产预期给煤价带来一定支持，叠加动力煤持续下跌或引发新一轮供应调节措施，可 关注政策端以及下游情况。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-29 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 合约收盘价为 3283 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 3 元/吨（0.091%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 123.239 万手，环比减少 6522 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 /吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 【策略观点】 上周五商品市场整体情绪偏好，成材价格延续底部区间内震荡。从基本面看，螺纹钢本周产量微增，表需 回落，库存水平处于五年低位；热轧卷板方面，产量持续回落，表观需求小幅走强，库存延 ...

目前沥青主力合约已经切换至2602合约，配合前期主力01合约综合来看，近期两周的沥青盘面表现为跌 后弱势震荡格局，震荡区间在2900-3000元/吨之间。现货端来看，同样是跌后弱势震荡，只是震荡区间 更窄，运行在2620-2650之间。可见这段胶着等待冬储的时间内现货市场心态明显企稳。 截至目前冬储的重头戏已经拉开帷幕，现实上周鑫海试探性放价3000元/吨，竟然也有少量接货，再者 就是12月15日山东地方炼厂京博释放的2900-2920元/吨，据反馈市场接货贸易商报盘意愿非常积极。该 冬储的释放成为今年正式冬储的风向标，将可预见的冬储成本框定在了2850-2920元/吨，后续要关注全 部炼厂冬储释放完成后看看总的冬储存量多少，也就能大概率锚定一季度的现货供需环境。 从基差结构上来看，2900元/吨的冬储现货成本对标12月15日BU2604合约的收盘价2995元/吨，最大基差 也就只有-95元/吨。分析后面的基差走势就尤为重要，而基差走势的波动主要看期货端，一般而言冬储 释放后现货价格会呈现阶段支撑，一直到冬储合同提货阶段（1-3月底），这段时间内是缺少现货环境 的，市场交易主要是围绕价格预期展开合同交易，而价 ...

| 供应 | 本周（20251218-1224），中国92家沥青炼厂产能利用率为33.1%，环比增加4.0%，国内重交沥青77家企业产能利用率为31.3%，环比增加 3.7%。分析原因主要是本周期辽河石化提产，加之山东、华东以及华南地区个别主力炼厂复产后稳定生产，导致产能利用率增加。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 本周(20251217-1223)，国内沥青54家企业厂家样本出货量共40.4万吨，环比增加15.4%。分地区来看，华南以及山东增加明显，其中华南地 区个别主营炼厂低价支撑下，整体船发尚可，带动出货量增加明显；山东地区下游入库需求渐起，炼厂多执行前期合同出货，支撑出货量有所 | | | 增加。 | | 观点 | 周内原油先涨后跌，委内局势继续僵持，基本面出货平稳，沥青价格窄幅震荡，上方空间仍受淡季限制。 | | 估值 | 国内沥青加工理论利润周均值为-339元/吨，环比增加16元/吨。本周国内沥青周均价为3049元/吨，环比上期下调25元/吨。沥青市场现货价 | | | 格波动区间在3044-3056元/吨，现货均价波动区间较小。分地区来看，其中6个区域价格下跌，跌幅在0.1%-4. ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周沥青观点：冬储进行时，现货低持稳 | 供应 | 本周（20251218-1224），中国92家沥青炼厂产能利用率为33.1%，环比增加4.0%，国内重交沥青77家企业产能利用率为31.3%，环比增加 3.7%。分析原因主要是本周期辽河石化提产，加之山东、华东以及华南地区个别主力炼厂复产后稳定生产，导致产能利用率增加。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 本周(20251217-1223)，国内沥青54家企业厂家样本出货量共40.4万吨，环比增加15.4%。分地区来看，华南以及山东增加明显，其中华南地 区个别主 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3127 -9 -0.29% 2 0.06% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3280 -5 -0.15% 3 0.09% 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） 元/吨 3310 -10 -0.30% 10 0.30% 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 4.75mm，上海） 元/吨 3280 10 0.31% 0 0 基差与价差 螺纹钢主力基差 元/吨 183 -1 8 热轧卷板主力基差 元/吨 0 15 -3 螺纹钢期货10-1价差 元/吨 65 13 40 热轧卷板期货10-1价差 元/吨 17 3 17 螺纹钢期货1-5价差 元/吨 -20 -5 -21 热轧卷板期货1-5价差 元/吨 2 0 -9 螺纹钢期货5-10价差 元/吨 -45 -8 -19 热轧卷板期货5-10价差 元/吨 -19 -3 -8 热卷01-螺纹01价差 元/吨 175 9 13 热卷05-螺纹05价差 元/吨 153 4 1 热卷10- ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-26 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3127 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 9 元/吨（-0.28%）。当日注册仓单 58627 吨, 环比减少 2057 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.1839 万手，环比减少 15590 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3310 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3280 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 5 元/吨（-0.15%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比增加 295 吨。主力合约持仓量为 123.8912 万手，环比增加 9350 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 /吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z00 ...