Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of steel decreased in this period. As the holiday approaches, the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are gradually on holiday. The inventory continues to increase, and the winter storage intensity this year is significantly weaker than in previous years. The market mostly expects the steel market to remain stable after the holiday. The pre - holiday steel market shows an oscillatory trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Steel Market Conditions - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed up, and closed down at night [1] Important Information - In late January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 21.28 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.935 million tons, a 2.2% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.15 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.741 million tons, a 3.0% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 21.3 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.936 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month [1] - In late January 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.42 million tons (8.8%) from the previous ten - day period; an increase of 0.57 million tons (4.0%) compared with the beginning of the year; an increase of 0.57 million tons (4.0%) compared with the same ten - day period of last month; a decrease of 0.64 million tons (4.2%) compared with the same ten - day period of last year; an increase of 2.51 million tons (20.6%) compared with the same ten - day period of the year before last [1] - In January, 1329 projects started nationwide, with a total investment of about 733.1 billion yuan [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.199 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,700 tons (0.4%); the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.3775 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 592,400 tons (4.6%); the weekly consumption of five major products was 7.6066 million tons, a decrease of 5.1%; among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 16.6% month - on - month, and the consumption of plates increased by 0.1% month - on - month [1] Market Logic - The supply and demand of steel decreased in this period. As the holiday approaches, the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are gradually on holiday. The inventory continues to increase, and the winter storage intensity this year is significantly weaker than in previous years. The market for steel after the holiday is mostly expected to be stable. The disk trend depends on sentiment and funds [1] Trading Strategy - The pre - holiday steel market shows an oscillatory trend. Maintaining the previous view, 3050 for rebar is still a strong support. It is recommended to carefully layout short - term long positions between 3050 - 3100 and set stop - losses [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-06 现实压⼒仍存，盘⾯弱势调整 淡季钢材端累库压⼒渐显，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯表现承压。钢⼚复 产节奏偏缓，铁矿⽯⾼发运⾼库存压⼒渐显，盘⾯表现偏弱。冬储临 近尾声，煤焦补库⽀撑逐步转弱，蒙煤进⼝处于⾼位，盘⾯⾼位回 落。玻纯供需过剩压制盘⾯价格。 淡季钢材端累库压力渐显，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面表现承压。钢厂复 产节奏偏缓，铁矿石高发运高库存压力渐显，盘面表现偏弱。冬储临 近尾声，煤焦补库支撑逐步转弱，蒙煤进口处于高位，盘面高位回 落。玻纯供需过剩压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预 期，节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承压，但节后即将召开两会，宏观 预期仍存，关注市场情绪变化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预 期，随着补库接近尾声，整体基本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随 成材为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应后续增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期 仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有限， 现货预计暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随成本端焦煤运行。国内煤矿临 近假期产量将逐 ...

二、基本面数据 【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周四持仓量增仓 49444 手，成交量相比上 一交易日放量，成交量 681405 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日 均线，最低 3086，最高 3113，收于 3101 元/吨，下跌 9 元/吨，跌幅 0.29%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3230 元/吨， 相比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 129 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 2 月 5 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比下降 8.15 万吨至 191.68 万吨，公历同比下降 1.61 万吨，产量本周下降较多，且处于近几年 相对低位。临近春节，需求转弱，钢厂季节性减产。后续关注春节后产量 复苏情况。 需求端：表需大幅下降（符合春节前工地停工的季节性规律），截 至 2 月 5 日当周，表需数据 147.64 万吨，周环比减少 28.76 万吨，年同比 减少 37.51 万吨，需求大幅走弱，临近春 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term outlook of "oscillation" for the black building materials industry [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the steel inventory pressure is increasing, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the iron ore has high shipping and high inventory pressure, and the coal supply is disturbed, but the support for coal - coke replenishment is weakening. The glass supply is also disturbed, but the oversupply restricts the upside space of the glass and soda ash futures [1]. - Overall, the winter storage of furnace materials is coming to an end, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures prices, but there is no negative feedback expectation, and the downside space of the cost side is limited. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Inventory pressure is continuously increasing, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand at present need to be verified, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [1]. Carbon Element - The growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. Domestic coal mines will gradually reduce production approaching the holiday, the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, and the fluctuation of the current sentiment remains to be observed [2]. Alloys - The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is limited, the coal price fluctuates within a narrow range, and the power - consumption cost of ferromanganese - silicon is difficult to adjust significantly. The current market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract of ferromanganese - silicon will oscillate around the cost. The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is not large, the coal price is expected to oscillate, and the cost adjustment of ferrosilicon is difficult to exceed expectations. The current market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. However, the trading activity before the festival is low, and the driving force for the futures price to rise is insufficient. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will oscillate around the cost [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: The cost support is limited, and the futures price is under pressure. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the overall demand is seasonally weakening. The inventory pressure is increasing, and the fundamentals are gradually accumulating contradictions. It is expected to oscillate widely [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the futures and spot prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased, the arrival at ports has weakened, and the supply side is expected to be disturbed by weather. The demand is stable, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both seasonally declining, and the price in East China has slightly increased. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [11]. - **Coke**: The spot price is stable for the time being, and the futures price follows the cost side. The supply change is limited, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory is increasing. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [14]. - **Coking Coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines are gradually on holiday, and the futures price is strong due to event disturbances. The supply of domestic coal mines will gradually decline, the import is still at a high level, and the downstream inventory is gradually in place. The fundamentals are healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely [15][16]. - **Glass**: The supply is still disturbed, and the price oscillates upward. The supply is expected to decline in the long term, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate, and if there is no more cold - repair, the high inventory will suppress the price [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost drives the sentiment to warm up, and the production remains at a high level. The supply has slightly declined, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the oversupply pattern will intensify in the long term [17][20]. - **Ferromanganese - Silicon**: The futures price center has moved up, but there is still pressure above. The cost support is strengthened, the market trading is cooling down, the cost adjustment is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The trading atmosphere is cold, and the driving force for the price to rise is insufficient. The cost support is strengthened, the cost change is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is at a low level. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rebar market is in the traditional off - season before the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high level, but the concentrated shutdown of short - process steel mills will gradually relieve the supply pressure. The demand is continuously weak due to the suspension of construction sites and the end of winter storage, with significant inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern in the short term, with limited fluctuation range. The post - festival market depends on inventory de - stocking speed and policy support, especially the implementation rhythm of "two - heavy" projects and infrastructure investment realization [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 6,899 lots on Wednesday, with a lower trading volume than the previous trading day (614,090 lots). It fell below the short - term 5 - day and medium - term 30 - day moving averages, with a low of 3,100 yuan/ton, a high of 3,105 yuan/ton, closing at 3,110 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.13% [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's HRB400E 20mm rebar spot was quoted at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the spot. The large basis provided some support, and winter storage on the futures was cost - effective [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week ending January 29, rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons week - on - week to 1.9983 billion tons, and was 2.216 billion tons higher year - on - year. The production rebounded slightly this week and was significantly higher than the same period last year, indicating accelerated resumption of production by steel mills, which put short - term downward pressure on prices [2] - Demand: The apparent demand decreased week - on - week (in line with the seasonal pattern of construction site shutdowns before the Spring Festival) but increased significantly year - on - year, showing a year - on - year recovery. As of the week ending January 29, the apparent demand was 1.764 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 912,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.785 billion tons. There was still support from winter - storage demand before the festival [2] - Inventory: The total inventory increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, remaining at a low level. As of the week ending January 29, the total inventory was 4.7553 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.343 billion tons and a year - on - year decrease of 17.76 billion tons. Social inventory was 3.264 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.328 billion tons and a year - on - year decrease of 12.388 billion tons. Mill inventory was 1.4913 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 150,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 5.372 billion tons. The inventory pressure on mills and social inventory decreased significantly year - on - year, providing support for prices [2][3] - Macro: The central bank signaled moderate monetary easing, and the Ministry of Finance emphasized increasing expenditure. However, due to the weak real - estate demand, the incremental demand was relatively limited. The easing cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Rising prices of raw materials (coking coal and coke), inventory at a three - year low, anti - involution production cuts on the supply side, strict capacity control, policy support for demand, marginal improvement in post - festival demand, and loose macro expectations [4] - Bearish factors: Excessive inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, slow inventory de - stocking, accelerated resumption of blast - furnace production, cautious winter - storage demand, continuous decline in real - estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that coking coal futures are experiencing a significant upward trend, with the main contract rising by 3.05% to 1773.5 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] - Indonesian mining officials have announced a substantial reduction in coal production, leading to a halt in spot coal exports, with some companies facing a production quota cut of 40%-70% for 2026 compared to 2025 [2] - The first round of price increases for coking coal has been fully implemented, with a slight increase in inventory and improved purchasing willingness from traders following the price rise [2] Group 2 - According to Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures, environmental policies are restricting production at coking enterprises, and with upstream coal mines shutting down for the Spring Festival, the overall supply of coking coal is tightening [4] - Demand from downstream steel mills is weakening, with increased maintenance leading to low pig iron production and a slight accumulation of coking coal inventory as pre-holiday restocking nears completion [4] - Overall, the coking coal market is expected to experience a period of fluctuation due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on steel-coke profit margins and industry shutdowns [4]

晨报 铝锭 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日沪铝偏弱调整，情绪有所缓和。美元再度下探，对美国政府再次 停摆的的担忧打击市场情绪；美伊对峙短暂升温，地缘冲突进一步扩大。国内 央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2 月 4 日将开展 8000 亿元买断式逆回 购操作，期限为 3 个月。 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：情绪有所缓和 警惕宏观扰动 以伊冲突 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号： ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 02 月 03 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 1/ 10 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【交易策略】 单边：维持震荡偏弱走势 套利：建议逢高做空卷煤比，做空卷螺差继续持有。 期权：建议观望。 【重要资讯】 1.美国 1 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 录得 52.6，为 2022 年 8 月以来新高。 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3200 元（-），北京敬业 3140 元（-），上海鞍钢热卷 3260 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3160 元（-1）。 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面维持震荡偏弱走势，现货成交整体偏弱，螺纹基本进入放假节奏， 热卷成交也偏弱，价格波动收窄。上周钢联数据公布，五大材加速增产，其中热卷增 产速度比螺纹更快；钢材总库存加快累库进度，其中螺纹累库而热卷依然去库，总体 社库压力大于厂库；近期天气转冷，下游工地陆陆续续停工，建材需求下滑；近 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：增仓下跌 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周二持仓量增仓 21029 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 685806 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日 均线，最低 3095，最高 3118，收于 3099 元/吨，下跌 16 元/吨，跌幅 0.51%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3230 元/吨， 相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 131 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 1 月 29 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 0.28 万吨至 199.83 万吨，公历同比上升 22.16 万吨，产量本周小幅回升，且同比去年 同期显著增长，反映钢厂复产动能加快，短期压制价格，后续需要继续关 注产能恢复力度能否持续。 需求端：表需环比下滑（符合春节前工地停工的季节性规律），同 比大幅增长，说明需求同比回暖，截至 1 月 29 日当周，表需数据 176.4 万 吨，周环比减少 9.12 ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 3 日星期二 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周一螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、九部门印发《2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动方案》 ...