欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：欧元汇率走强主要由欧洲的积极信心冲击所推动，而非利差。 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on June 9, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 173.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, there were no reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - Following a trillion-yuan reverse repurchase operation that boosted confidence, the central bank continued to inject liquidity, leading to a more relaxed interbank funding environment, with overnight pledged repo rates falling over 3 basis points, dropping below 1.4% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.29% [4] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.67%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [6] Group 4: Bond Yield Rates - The yields for various government bonds are as follows: 1Y at 1.4100%, 2Y at 1.4250%, 3Y at 1.4350%, 5Y at 1.4976%, 7Y at 1.5865%, and 10Y at 1.6550% [8] - The yields for policy bank bonds and local government bonds also show slight variations, with some yields decreasing [8] Group 5: Recent Economic Indicators - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.2%, while PPI fell by 3.3%, worse than the expected drop of 3.2% [12] Group 6: International Economic Dialogue - During a visit to the UK, China's Vice Premier He Lifeng discussed economic and financial cooperation with UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, emphasizing the need for mutual efforts to implement agreements and deepen economic relations [14]

摘要： 瑞银的基准情景预计，2025 年下半年全球经济增长将逐步放缓，但在资产负债表健康、违约率低以及 技术面支撑的情况下，利差将保持区间波动(预计 2025 年 12 月欧盟投资级 / 高收益债券利差为 100/325 个基点)，尽管关税相关新闻可能引发市场波动。 瑞银认为，投资级金融债券是一个理想的选择，尤其是相对于企业债券而言。能源和基础工业板块看起 来最容易受到关税新闻的冲击，目前仅存在选择性的微观机会，而资本货物和公用事业板块则显得最具 防御性。 瑞银仍然倾向于在战术上做多 iTraxx Main 指数相对于欧盟投资级债券的头寸，因为瑞银预计 7 月关税 新闻可能会再次引发市场波动。欧洲私人信贷市场因其强劲的基本面和大量的干火药(未投资资金)来支 持流动性和抑制硬违约而引人注目。 5 月，采购经理人指数(PMI)有所放缓，但制造业活动继续呈上升趋势(49.2)，尽管贸易不确定性持续存 在，但提振了风险情绪。银行贷款和信贷条件进一步改善，私营部门信贷增长恢复复苏(从 + 0.1% 升至 2.7%)，贷款利率下降(从 - 0.2% 降至 3.9%)。欧洲企业强劲的盈利增强了对基本面的信心，而低评级信 贷 ...

Core Insights - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) reached 4.26% on May 21, marking the lowest level since December 2022, down from 4.27% the previous day [1] - The narrowing spread between SOFR and the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) rate to just 1 basis point indicates ample front-end funding due to U.S. Treasury payments and government-supported corporate cash inflows [1] - The repo market is experiencing a notable softening, particularly at this time of the month, as highlighted by Oxford Economics analyst John Canavan [1] Summary by Category SOFR and RRP Rates - SOFR reported at 4.26%, down from 4.27% [1] - The spread between SOFR and RRP rate narrowed to 1 basis point, the tightest since November 20, 2024 [1] Repo Market Dynamics - Overnight GC repo rates initially reported at 4.30%, 4.29%, and 4.28%, with bid-ask spreads of 4.28%-4.27% [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33% [1]

Group 1 - The German 10-year government bond yield increased by 6.1 basis points, reaching a daily high of 2.536%, showing an N-shaped upward trend throughout the day [1] - The 2-year German bond yield rose by 6.0 basis points, reported at 1.773%, and peaked at 1.776% at 23:50 [1] - The 30-year German bond yield increased by 6.6 basis points, reported at 2.989% [1] Group 2 - The 2/10 year German bond yield spread decreased by 0.130 basis points, reported at +75.778 basis points [1] - The bond yields experienced a slight uptick of 1 basis point following the Bank of England's announcement of an interest rate cut at 19:02 Beijing time [1] - The US stock market opened at 21:30, initiating a second wave of sustained upward movement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese credit market is experiencing a significant shift as credit risks and spreads have reached historical lows, driven by a combination of value imbalance, policy changes, and debt cycle dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Value Imbalance - The ratio of credit spreads to LPR spreads fell below 50% in the second half of 2024, leading to a disappearance of capital gain expectations [1]. - Institutional investors, such as banks and insurance companies, are shifting towards long-term interest rate bonds due to the imbalance in value, resulting in a sharp adjustment in the credit bond market [1]. - This institutional behavior has intensified the differentiation within the credit market, highlighting the severe inadequacy of overall credit spread value [1]. Group 2: Policy Dynamics - Since the initiation of the debt reduction policy in 2015, credit spreads have been on a long-term decline, but the policy focus has shifted towards urban investment transformation rather than debt reduction itself as of September 2024 [2]. - The next three years will see the completion of implicit debt replacement, leading to a reduction in policy support and a transition into a policy bottom phase for the credit market [2]. - The decrease in debt reduction funds and the advancement of urban investment transformation are gradually diminishing the factors that mitigate credit risk, necessitating attention to the survival pressures of tail-end entities [2]. Group 3: Debt Cycle Context - In the context of a global debt crisis, China has adjusted earlier due to pressures from real estate and local government debt, with credit risk pricing at historical lows [2]. - However, the pressures from external demand contraction and urban investment transformation are increasing actual tail-end risks [2]. - As the largest industrial nation globally, China’s reliance on external demand is facing challenges, while the push for urban investment transformation exacerbates credit risks for tail-end entities [2].