美国财长贝森特：财政部拥有一整套非常强大的"工具箱"来应对国债相关事务；美联储也拥有应对国债 的丰富工具箱。 ...

股指可考虑节前防守，国 债短期看好 2025-04-28 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 01 金融期货策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 核心观点：特朗普：谈成200份协议，美日协议"非常接近" ，关税不太可能再暂缓90天。中共中央政 治局会议：统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策。中国一季度规模 以上工业企业利润由降转增，同比增长0.8%。中国六部门：下调离境退税起退点至200元，现金退税 限额上调至2万元。国家市场监管总局：长和港口交易各方不得采取任何方式规避反垄断审查。特朗普 虚张声势，扰动市场。会议对一季度以来的经济评价是"经济呈现向好态势，社会信心持续提振，高质 量发展扎实推进" ，表明高层对今年以来的经济表现是比较满意的，国内战略定力强，股指或震荡运行， 节前难出重大利好政策，股指较 ...

Group 1 - The core issue of excessive currency issuance leading to inflation and economic collapse is highlighted, with historical examples provided [1][3] - The impact of currency over-issuance on international trade capabilities is discussed, emphasizing that only limited amounts can stimulate the economy without causing devaluation [3][5] - The historical context of Zimbabwe's hyperinflation is presented, illustrating the consequences of excessive currency printing and its effect on purchasing power [5] Group 2 - The limitations of solely relying on domestic currency issuance to solve economic issues are examined, particularly in the context of China's early reform period and the need for foreign exchange [7] - The role of national debt is explained as a means to acquire foreign resources and stabilize the economy, with a focus on the balance of international financial transactions [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first quarter, indicating a proactive fiscal policy response to economic conditions, with a notable emphasis on the early issuance of ordinary government bonds to stimulate spending [1][4][7]. Group 1: Narrow Fiscal Analysis - In Q1, the general public budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with tax revenue down by 3.5%, similar to the previous year's decline of 3.4%, potentially linked to the need for improvement in PPI and nominal growth [1][4]. - Expenditure in Q1 increased by 4.2%, driven primarily by the significant pre-issuance of ordinary government bonds, reaching about 30% of the annual target, the highest level for this period in recent years [1][4][5]. - The revenue-expenditure gap reached 1.26 trillion yuan, the highest for this period in recent years, reflecting weaker revenue and stronger expenditure trends [5][7]. Group 2: Broad Fiscal Analysis - The government fund revenue in Q1 fell by 11%, while expenditure rose by 11.1%, resulting in a revenue-expenditure gap of 1 trillion yuan, indicating a more proactive fiscal stance compared to the previous year [7][9]. - The decline in land transfer revenue was significant, with a 15.9% drop, which may not yet reflect the improved performance in land sales reported by other sources [9][22]. - The central government has pre-allocated funds for new projects, including 810 million yuan for upgrades and 2.3 billion yuan for project construction, contributing to Q1 expenditure [7][9]. Group 3: Monthly Trends - March showed a marginal improvement in fiscal performance, with public budget revenue increasing by 0.3% year-on-year, a recovery from the previous decline of 1.6% [2][14]. - Tax revenue in March decreased by 2.2%, a smaller decline compared to the previous month's 3.9%, with domestic VAT and corporate income tax being the main contributors to the recovery [2][14]. - Expenditure in March accelerated to a 5.7% increase year-on-year, driven by social security, education, and debt interest payments, reflecting a shift in fiscal support from tax revenue to bond income [2][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The early issuance of bonds aligns with the policy spirit of "early if possible, rather than late," with expectations for increased project funding in the coming months [3][23]. - The issuance of special bonds is anticipated to accelerate, with plans for the issuance of long-term special bonds starting on April 24, which is a month earlier than last year [3][23]. - The market expects further fiscal expansion, particularly in response to changing external trade conditions and the need for domestic economic stimulation [3][23].