来源：市场资讯 （来源：华泰证券研究所） 策略: 港股正在进入布局区(2025-11-23) ▽ 点击一键直达 ▽ 近期市场波动率上升,流动性、情绪和风险偏好是 主要原因。港股本轮调整相对A股更早、跌幅也更 深,当前位置已经开始具备性价比。1)短期资金避 险和高低切可能延续,建议关注今年以来表现排名 靠后的消费者服务、建筑、纺织服装、家电。2)8月以 来的第三轮重估中,部分行业涨幅有限但近期跌幅 反而较大,有更大被"错杀"概率,关注电子、医药、 汽车、轻工制造等。3)港股科技近期回调较多,在风 险偏好回落下对正面催化敏感度下降,流动性环境 改善后仍有重估机会。 策略: 高低切下哪些行业还有补涨空间? (2025-11-16) ▽ 点击一键直达 ▽ 上周行业间高低切演绎较为极致,今年以来相对滞 涨的板块上周涨跌幅排名靠前。在盈利数据并未明 显改善的情况下资金提前切换,或因当前流动性承 压、主线不清晰等交易性因素。若资金高低切持续, 短期建议关注今年以来表现排名靠后的消费者服 务、建筑、纺织服装、家电以及具有防御属性的红利 方向。此外,12月开始港股流动性压力边际暂缓,切 换或难一帆风顺,依然建议均衡配置。 策略 ...

Group 1 - The issuance of new funds remains strong in December, with over 60 products starting or about to start issuance, and a total of more than 1400 new funds issued this year, surpassing last year's total of 1143 and reaching a three-year high [1][2] - Equity products are the main focus of new fund issuances, with 26 stock funds and 16 mixed funds launched in December, including several managed by well-known fund managers [1][2] - The majority of new funds are being issued by large and medium-sized institutions, with several companies launching multiple new products simultaneously [2][3] Group 2 - The total issuance of new funds this year has reached 1450, with a combined share of 10,359.09 million units, marking a significant increase compared to last year [2][3] - Among the newly issued funds, 795 are stock funds and 251 are equity-mixed funds, accounting for over 70% of the total, with index products dominating the market [3] - The public fund industry is innovating continuously, introducing various new products such as credit bond ETFs and floating rate funds, enhancing the investment landscape for investors [3] Group 3 - The outlook for the market remains positive, with expectations of economic improvement and a downward trend in risk-free interest rates, although short-term disturbances may still exist [4] - Fund companies suggest a balanced allocation strategy to navigate market volatility, with recommendations to increase exposure to stable dividend assets and sectors with growth potential [4] - The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation pattern in the short term, influenced by new sales regulations and interest rate expectations [4]

近日A股市场出现盘整。个股赚钱效应与市场人气同步减弱的背后，是内外因素交织下的资金集体避险 行为。面对这场调整，一线私募机构展现出了截然不同的应对之策。在11月中旬股票私募平均仓位创下 近112周新高的背景下，有的机构选择高仓位坚守，有的则通过衍生品进行风险对冲，有的机构积极调 整结构，为下一轮行情布局。 ● 本报记者王辉 多因素共振引发市场调整 止于至善则采用了更为精细的风险对冲手段。何理透露："我们在市场处于高位时，会购买一些虚值看 跌期权来保护组合不发生极端回撤。" 涌津投资董事长谢小勇则更关注资金面因素，他认为"海外流动性再收紧"是重要诱因。10月末以来，美 联储态度转鹰，美元指数冲高导致外资资金短期净流出，对A股高估值科技板块形成直接压力。同时， 近期题材炒作监控趋严，两融与游资活跃度快速下降，短线资金被迫降杠杆，形成了"多头回吐"的局 面。 从资金行为角度来看，百亿级私募勤辰资产表示，临近年末，机构资金兑现浮盈等防守性行为自然会导 致市场出现短期波动。这一判断与涌津投资观察到的"年内最活跃的资金在11月集中兑现收益"现象不谋 而合。 另一家百亿级私募淡水泉则从更底层的市场逻辑出发，认为市场定价正从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities emphasizes a balanced allocation strategy to navigate the current market turmoil, with a focus on waiting for a renewed emphasis on technology sectors [1][2][5]. Market Performance - The market experienced a broad decline this week, with the technology sector suffering the largest drop, indicating a style shift as the market accelerated downward [1][2]. - There has been a significant net inflow into broad-based ETFs, while both northbound and southbound funds are showing balanced allocation trends [2][3]. Fund Flow Dynamics - Leverage and main funds are accelerating their net outflows, with a notable decrease in leveraged trading activity, returning to levels seen in early August [3]. - Northbound funds are increasing their positions in banks, while southbound funds continue to show balanced allocation across various sectors, including retail, electronics, banking, and real estate [3]. Influencing Factors - The market adjustment is attributed to changes in fund dynamics, influenced by multiple direct factors such as concerns over U.S. government shutdowns and lowered interest rate expectations [4]. - The resurgence of AI bubble concerns has also dampened risk appetite, particularly following Nvidia's quarterly report, which raised questions about financial data and the sustainability of the AI boom [4]. - Seasonal effects and stock index futures expirations have amplified market volatility, contributing to a cautious market sentiment [4]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to refocus on technology sectors within the year, with significant adjustments likely accelerating this transition [5].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.40%, Shenzhen Component down 0.76%, and ChiNext down 1.12%, while the Northbound 50 fell by 1.00%. The total trading volume was 1.72 trillion yuan, a decrease of 20 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 3,850 stocks declining [1] Reasons for Market Adjustment - The first reason for the market adjustment is profit-locking by institutional investors, as November is recognized as a settlement month for public funds and a critical period for annual performance assessment. Institutions tend to shift from seeking excess returns to locking in profits, leading to active portfolio adjustments [2] - The second reason is the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which has impacted global liquidity. Recent reports suggest that the Fed may not lower interest rates in the first half of next year, disrupting expectations for liquidity easing and causing capital outflows from the Asia-Pacific region, including A-shares [3] - The third reason is the rising tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, which have raised market concerns. Recent remarks from the Japanese Prime Minister and subsequent countermeasures from China, such as travel warnings and import restrictions, have created uncertainty in economic and trade prospects between the two countries, affecting market sentiment [4] Long-term Market Outlook - Despite the current adjustment, the underlying logic supporting the bull market remains intact. China's rapid advancements in technology and military capabilities, along with ongoing policies aimed at boosting economic development and industrial upgrades, are expected to provide key support for the capital market [4] - The market is anticipated to undergo a period of consolidation, which may help digest profit-taking and repair valuation structures, ultimately paving the way for a return to an upward trajectory towards new highs [4] Investment Strategy - Given the recent market corrections, several risk signals have emerged, including the breaking of key moving averages and a decline in trading volume to around 1.7 trillion yuan. If trading volume does not rebound above 2 trillion yuan quickly, the index may struggle to achieve upward momentum in the short term [5] - Investors are advised to adopt a balanced allocation strategy, avoiding heavy bets on high-priced technology stocks and instead diversifying into lower-priced sectors such as AI applications, consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and dividend assets. This approach allows for both offensive and defensive positioning in response to upcoming market conditions [5][7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent global market downturn, highlighting a liquidity shock that has led to a collective decline in various asset classes, including global stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold, with the Asia-Pacific region experiencing the largest drop of over 3% in Japan and South Korea [4][8]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining core positions in quality equity investments, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, and suggests that the main investment themes remain unchanged despite market fluctuations [7][10]. - The article advises investors to lower their expectations and set realistic benchmarks for returns, suggesting that the focus should be on long-term investment in quality companies rather than short-term gains [13][15]. Group 2 - The article highlights the need for investors to avoid crowded trades and to be cautious about entering popular sectors unless they have a deep understanding of industry trends, using examples from the lithium battery sector and the banking sector to illustrate the risks of chasing hot stocks [17][22]. - It advocates for dynamic portfolio balancing and the acquisition of undervalued assets, suggesting that investors should assess their holdings and consider diversifying across different sectors and regions to mitigate risks [24][27]. - The article mentions the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, noting the impact of significant capital raises on valuations and the mixed results from companies like Xiaomi, which reported a 20% year-on-year revenue increase but faces concerns about sustaining growth in its automotive business [34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a shift in market style, with a transition towards balanced allocation strategies as funds compete across different sectors, particularly with a notable rebound in cyclical, dividend, and chemical assets [1] - Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, the scale of dividend funds has increased by 8 billion yuan compared to the end of the third quarter, with 14 new products launched, reflecting a demand for stable value growth in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - The probability of achieving positive returns increases with higher dividend yields, suggesting that dividend funds may serve as a key entry point for stable funds into the equity market [1] Group 2 - The current market for dividend investment targets is diverse, with variations in stock selection and factor restrictions significantly impacting the inclusion of constituent stocks [2] - A notable trend is the combination of dividend strategies with low volatility factors, exemplified by the dividend low volatility ETF (159547), which selects stocks based on liquidity, consistent dividends, and moderate payout ratios [2] - The expectation of a recovery in relative returns for dividend styles is linked to the anticipated rebound in PPI due to proactive policies, suggesting that the current period may be an opportunity for accumulating shares [2]

华泰证券研报表示，上周港股冲高回落，恒生指数上涨1.3%，恒生科技指数下跌0.4%。行业间高低切 演绎较为极致，今年以来相对滞涨的板块上周涨跌幅排名靠前，如农林牧渔、房地产、医药、石油石 化、纺织服饰等。在盈利数据并未明显改善的情况下资金提前切换，或因当前流动性承压、主线不清晰 等交易性因素。若资金高低切持续，短期建议关注今年以来表现排名靠后的消费者服务、建筑、纺织服 装、家电以及具有防御属性的红利方向。此外，12月开始港股流动性压力边际暂缓，切换或难一帆风 顺，依然建议均衡配置。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent cautious stance of ETF managers contrasts sharply with the heated market environment, indicating a shift towards a more prudent investment approach among institutional investors as they navigate market volatility and style rebalancing [1][5]. ETF Positioning - Several newly established ETFs are adopting a "low position" strategy, with some having equity positions as low as 10% or even close to zero, reflecting a wait-and-see approach before fully deploying capital [1][3]. - For instance, the Huaxia CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF had an equity position of 33.19% as of November 11, which is below the required thresholds for investment in index components [2]. - Other ETFs, such as the Jiashi CSI Sub-Sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF and the Yifangda CSI Satellite Industry ETF, reported equity positions of 19.99% and 10.02%, respectively, as of early November [2]. Institutional Caution - The cautious behavior of ETFs is notable, as they typically aim to quickly align with their benchmark indices. However, recent listings show a significant delay in building positions, suggesting a more conservative approach from fund managers [4]. - Regulatory guidelines emphasize the need for fund managers to ensure compliance with investment ratios before listing, yet many funds are still in the process of building their portfolios, indicating a cautious market sentiment [4]. Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced volatility around the 4000-point mark, with a shift in market focus from technology stocks to sectors like new energy and cyclical stocks, which are showing improved performance [5]. - Institutional attitudes have shifted from aggressive to cautious, with passive funds slowing their pace of investment and actively managed funds also adopting a more conservative stance [5]. Investment Strategies - The concepts of "balanced allocation" and "barbell strategy" are regaining prominence among institutional investors, moving away from the previously favored growth-oriented strategies [6]. - Historical data suggests a tendency for a shift from growth to value styles in the fourth quarter, indicating a potential rebalancing rather than a complete style switch [6]. - Investment firms recommend a barbell strategy, combining high-dividend assets with a focus on quality growth assets, to navigate the current market conditions [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent cautious stance of newly established ETFs contrasts sharply with the heated market environment, indicating a more prudent attitude among institutional investors as they navigate market volatility and style rebalancing [1][5]. ETF Positioning - Several newly launched ETFs are adopting a "low position" strategy, with some having equity positions as low as 10% or even close to zero, reflecting a wait-and-see approach before fully deploying their capital [1][3]. - For instance, the Huaxia CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF had an equity position of 33.19% as of November 11, which is below the required thresholds set by its fund contract [2]. - Other ETFs, such as the Jiashi CSI Sub-Sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF and the Yifangda CSI Satellite Industry ETF, reported equity positions of only 19.99% and 10.02%, respectively [2]. Market Dynamics - The cautious approach of ETFs comes amid a backdrop of the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around the 4000-point mark, with a notable shift in market styles as technology stocks face adjustments while new energy and cyclical sectors show improved performance [4][6]. - The market is currently experiencing a "rebalancing" rather than a complete "switch," with institutions returning to more balanced strategies after a period of aggressive growth-focused investments [6]. Investment Strategies - The "balanced allocation" and "barbell strategy" are re-emerging as core investment strategies among institutions, emphasizing a mix of dividend-paying assets and high-quality growth assets [5][6]. - Historical data suggests that after a strong performance in growth styles during the third quarter, a shift towards value styles in the fourth quarter is common, reinforcing the need for a balanced approach [6]. Recommendations - Fund managers are encouraged to consider increasing allocations to high-dividend stocks while maintaining a focus on quality growth assets, particularly in the context of the current market dynamics [7].