Fund Overview - The fund is named "Zhaoshang Zhongzheng Commodity Stock Index Securities Investment Fund (LOF)" and is managed by Zhaoshang Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] - The fund operates as a contract-based open-end fund and was established on June 28, 2012, with a total fund share of 83,584,797.77 at the end of the reporting period [1][2]. - The fund aims to passively track the performance of the underlying index, the Zhongzheng Commodity Stock Index, with a tracking error not exceeding 0.35% and an annual tracking error not exceeding 4% [1][2]. Financial Performance - The fund reported a profit of CNY 5,962,991.95 for the reporting period, with a net asset value of CNY 128,906,122.86 at the end of June 2025 [3][11]. - The net asset value per fund share was CNY 1.5422, and the cumulative net value growth rate was 79.48% since inception [3][11]. - The fund's net value growth rate for the reporting period was 4.58%, outperforming the benchmark growth rate of 2.31% [6][11]. Investment Strategy - The fund employs a passive index investment strategy, primarily investing in stocks that are part of the Zhongzheng Commodity Stock Index, with at least 90% of its stock assets allocated to these index components [1][16]. - The fund's performance benchmark is composed of 95% of the Zhongzheng Commodity Stock Index return and 5% of the after-tax interest rate of commercial bank demand deposits [1][16]. Management and Compliance - Zhaoshang Fund Management Co., Ltd. has established a comprehensive research and investment decision-making process to ensure fair investment opportunities across all portfolios [4]. - The fund management strictly adheres to relevant laws and regulations, ensuring compliance in all investment operations and protecting the interests of fund shareholders [5][10]. Market Environment - The market environment during the reporting period was characterized by active trading sentiment and ample liquidity, with structural opportunities emerging in various sectors [6][7]. - The fund's performance was influenced by fiscal and monetary policies aimed at stabilizing growth and addressing economic challenges, leading to a mixed performance across different industries [6][7].

Core Insights - Pierre Andurand, a renowned oil trader, has faced significant losses in the cocoa market, with his flagship fund down 57% year-to-date as of June 30 [2][3][4] - Cocoa futures prices have dropped over 29% this year, with a notable decline of more than 3% on August 1, reaching $8,227 per ton [5][13] - Weak global demand, particularly in Europe where cocoa bean processing fell 7.2% year-on-year in Q2, is a primary factor for the price drop [4][13] Fund Performance - Andurand's fund, "Andurand Commodity Enhanced Fund," experienced a stark contrast in performance compared to 2024, when it achieved a 50% annual return due to successful cocoa price bets [4][5] - The fund suffered substantial losses in early 2025, with a drop of approximately 17% in January and nearly 25% in February [8] - Despite acknowledging the disappointing performance, Andurand remains optimistic about future cocoa prices, maintaining a bullish stance on the market [11] Market Dynamics - The decline in cocoa prices is attributed to concerns over demand, with significant reductions in processing volumes reported in both Europe and Asia [13][14] - The high cocoa prices from the previous year have started to suppress consumer demand, particularly in the chocolate market, amid ongoing global inflation pressures [13][14] - The global chocolate market is experiencing its most severe decline in a decade, with forecasts indicating a cocoa surplus in the upcoming years [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the coal market, particularly focusing on coking coal, driven by supply-side policies and market dynamics, highlighting the potential for price increases and the risks associated with a lack of downstream demand support [3][12][33]. Policy Analysis - The National Energy Administration's investigation into coal overproduction has intensified market speculation, leading to a surge in coking coal prices [6][14]. - The central government's stance against industry "involution" and its push for reasonable price increases and optimized capacity have shifted market expectations, alleviating fears of deflation in bulk commodities [12][13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of coordinated policies for stabilizing growth and reducing capacity in key sectors has further fueled price increase expectations [13]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Most major coal-producing provinces are operating below their announced production capacities, with only Xinjiang slightly exceeding its planned capacity due to abundant resources [9][10]. - The recent surge in coking coal prices is not supported by a corresponding increase in downstream demand, particularly in the coking and steel sectors, indicating a structural disconnect in the market [18][23]. Market Behavior - The coking coal market is experiencing a feedback loop where rising prices are leading to increased speculative trading, while the stock market has not reflected the same bullish sentiment, indicating a potential disconnect between commodity and equity valuations [21][33]. - The article warns of the risks associated with speculative bubbles in the coking coal market, as the underlying fundamentals may not support sustained price increases [33][34]. Strategic Considerations - The government's plan to establish a coal reserve system aims to stabilize prices and prevent excessive volatility, with a target of 300 million tons of adjustable capacity by 2030 [24][25]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the impact of new overproduction policies on supply dynamics, suggesting that the current market environment requires a cautious approach to investment in coal-related assets [35].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the analysis is that oil has provided a mere 0.5% annual real return over the past 150 years, significantly lagging behind U.S. stocks at 6.58% and U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds at 1.84% [1][4] - The main issue facing commodity investments, particularly oil, is the lack of cash flow returns, compounded by technological advancements that suppress price increases [3][4] - The analysis indicates that oil's long-term investment disadvantages stem from its inability to generate cash flow, unlike stocks and bonds, and that technological progress and substitution effects keep oil prices aligned with historical trends [4][5] Group 2 - Despite limited long-term investment value, oil prices can experience extreme short-term volatility, with significant fluctuations observed from 2008 to 2020, surpassing the stability seen from the late 1940s to 1973 [5] - Historical turning points, such as the 1973 oil crisis, have drastically altered pricing mechanisms, leading to substantial price increases and economic impacts on multiple countries [5] - The research suggests that for ordinary investors, the optimal strategy in the oil market is to capitalize on short-term volatility rather than holding for the long term, as current oil prices are near historical averages, limiting potential for significant increases [5]

Group 1 - The article re-evaluates commodities as an asset class, highlighting their unique price returns and potential supply-demand changes as foundational to the global economy [1][2] - Commodities are characterized by their non-homogeneity and low correlation among different markets, with specific exceptions among commodities involved in the same production process [2][3] - Historical trends show that commodity prices have only moderately increased from 1970 to 2019, contradicting the belief that prices will inevitably rise over time due to limited natural resources [3][4] Group 2 - Commodities have three components of returns: spot price changes, roll yield, and collateral yield, with spot prices reflecting current supply-demand conditions [5][6] - The role of commodities in portfolios includes inflation protection and diversification, with historical evidence supporting their effectiveness against unexpected inflation [8][10] - The correlation between inflation rates and commodity returns is positive, indicating that higher inflation leads to higher average returns for commodities [11][13] Group 3 - Diversification benefits from commodities arise from their low correlation with traditional asset classes, potentially reducing overall portfolio volatility [15][17] - The performance of commodity-inclusive portfolios has varied over time, with lower volatility not necessarily compensating for lower returns compared to traditional portfolios [18][19] - The internal correlation among commodities increased during the 2008 financial crisis but has since returned to historical lows, suggesting potential for diversification benefits [19][20] Group 4 - The article discusses alternative methods for constructing commodity beta, emphasizing the need for diversified approaches to capture low correlations among commodities [23][24] - Commodities can serve as a foundation for expressing specific investment themes, allowing investors to capitalize on unique geopolitical or economic factors [28][30] - Tactical trading strategies using commodities can be based on fundamental changes in supply-demand dynamics, making them suitable for short-term investment objectives [30][31] Group 5 - The concept of risk premium in commodities suggests that investors can achieve repeatable returns by selling insurance to other market participants [32][34] - The article encourages a re-examination of commodity allocations in diversified portfolios, advocating for tactical approaches and factor-based investment strategies [34][35]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple commodity-themed LOFs have issued risk premium alerts, indicating significant premium risks in secondary market trading prices, with over 20 alerts issued in April alone [1][6]. Group 1: Risk Alerts and Market Reactions - On April 17, E Fund issued a premium risk alert for its gold-themed LOF, noting a premium rate exceeding 40% based on a net asset value of 1.293 CNY and a market price of 1.823 CNY [2]. - E Fund's crude oil LOF also reported a premium rate over 35%, with a net asset value of 1.1063 CNY and a market price of 1.496 CNY [2]. - Following the resumption of trading on April 17, both E Fund's gold and crude oil LOFs saw significant increases, rising over 6% and 7% respectively [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Guidance - Industry experts highlight that the rising demand for commodities like gold and crude oil is driven by inflationary pressures, which has led to increased prices and demand for related LOFs [8]. - A fund manager noted that the trading prices of LOFs are heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, warning that high premiums could lead to price corrections if not addressed promptly [8]. - Investors are advised to adhere to suitability guidelines and avoid unfamiliar products to mitigate potential losses from high premium purchases [5][8]. Group 3: Economic Factors and Future Outlook - The current economic landscape presents conflicting factors for commodities, including potential global economic recession due to U.S. tariff policies, which could reduce demand [8]. - However, trade protectionism and increased tariffs may exacerbate inflation risks, potentially elevating long-term commodity price levels [8]. - Experts suggest that while recent adjustments in commodity prices reflect pessimistic economic expectations, they may not fully account for future inflation risks, indicating potential investment opportunities beyond gold [9].