Core Viewpoint - UBS Wealth Management's Chief Investment Officer for Global Commodities and Forex, Dominic Schnider, anticipates an acceleration in global economic growth next year, leading to a favorable outlook for commodities, particularly energy and grains, which are currently seen as undervalued [1] Group 1: Commodity Outlook - Investors are diversifying their portfolios, showing optimism for commodity performance, especially beyond gold [1] - UBS expects gold prices to be around $4,500 next year, potentially dropping to $4,300 by the fourth quarter [1] - Energy and grain prices are highlighted as particularly cheap, suggesting investment opportunities in these sectors [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Schnider believes there is a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with an expected reduction of 50 basis points in the first half of next year [1] - The anticipated policy rate for next year is projected to be around 3.33%, with a possibility of dropping to 3% [1] Group 3: Currency Forecast - The dollar is expected to have a modest decline in the low to mid-single digits next year, but optimism may return as policy rates approach neutral levels [1] - A stabilization of the dollar is anticipated in the second half of the year [1]

Group 1 - UBS Wealth Management's Director of Investment Office, Dominic Schnider, anticipates accelerated global economic growth next year, leading to a favorable outlook for commodities, particularly energy and grains, which are currently seen as undervalued [1] - Despite the positive outlook for commodities, gold prices have surged and are expected to remain a key investment, with projections of approximately $4,500 per ounce next year, potentially dropping to $4,300 by Q4 [1] - The impact of previous central bank rate cuts is expected to manifest gradually next year, especially in Europe, with an overall improvement in economic conditions anticipated [1] Group 2 - The dollar is expected to experience a modest decline next year, but optimism may return as policy rates approach neutral levels, stabilizing in the second half of the year [2] - The Chinese yuan is projected to strengthen, driven by clearer trade prospects and improved corporate earnings, with the possibility of reaching or exceeding 7 against the dollar in the first half of next year [2] - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $65 and $70 per barrel, as supply growth outside OPEC slows down and demand may exceed expectations [2] - A supply gap in copper is anticipated to reach 400,000 tons, with prices potentially hitting $13,000 per ton by the end of next year if global economic growth accelerates [2]

Group 1 - Barclays research team has raised its outlook for the US dollar due to decreased risks to Federal Reserve independence and potential structural benefits from AI capital expenditures [1] - Several US public and private companies have announced significant AI-related capital expenditure plans over the next three to five years, potentially exceeding 10% of US GDP [1][2] - The investment cycle related to AI is expected to have profound impacts on macroeconomics, asset returns, and foreign exchange, similar to previous large investment cycles during periods of rapid technological advancement [1][2] Group 2 - The US is leading in technology development and application, with benefits from AI investments expected to vary across industrialized nations, often disadvantaging lagging economies [2] - The current AI capital expenditures may not have reached their peak growth phase, supported by a favorable financial environment and strong asset prices [2] - The development and application of cloud technology are shifting earnings towards US tech giants, with both the US and China emerging as winners in cloud technology investments [2] Group 3 - The speed of technological advancement is dependent on the construction of AI infrastructure, which relies heavily on minerals and rare earth elements, making commodities a market focus [3] - Demand for commodities related to energy, electrical infrastructure, and data center materials is expected to rise significantly due to increased AI capital expenditure expectations [3] - Countries rich in minerals and rare earth resources, such as Australia, Indonesia, and Brazil, are anticipated to benefit from this investment cycle, while China remains a dominant player in the refining of metals and rare earths [3] Group 4 - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to decline in the short term, with the Chinese yuan potentially appreciating to 7.05, supported by several favorable factors [4] - Recent performance of the yuan has been bolstered by accelerated foreign exchange settlements by companies and signals from the People's Bank of China [4]

Group 1: Oil Prices - Oil prices experienced a significant drop of 2.1%, marking the largest decline in a week, with WTI closing above $59 [3] - The decline is attributed to an increase in gasoline and distillate oil inventories in the U.S., indicating a more relaxed supply side [3] - Geopolitical tensions have eased with new developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to reduced market concerns about risks [3] - The current drop in oil prices is viewed as a correction rather than a reversal, as long-term supply and demand fundamentals remain intact [3] Group 2: Gold - Gold prices remained stable despite a rising U.S. dollar, largely due to its correlation with tech stocks [4] - The market is awaiting economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, with a less than 50% probability of a rate cut in December [4] - The long-term value of gold is supported by actual interest rates and global risk demand, making it a strategic asset for investors [5] Group 3: Copper - Copper prices have shown a quiet recovery, driven by Chile's upward revision of price forecasts for the next two years [5] - As a key industrial metal, copper's performance is closely linked to global economic recovery and industrial demand [5] - The recovery in copper prices signals confidence in future industrial demand, and investors should focus on downstream demand factors such as new energy and manufacturing [5] Group 4: Overall Market Insights - The short-term fluctuations in oil, gold, and copper are influenced by different factors, but the long-term investment logic remains clear: oil is driven by supply-demand and geopolitical dynamics, gold by interest rates and risk demand, and copper by industrial recovery [6] - The commodity market is characterized by trends shaped by industrial dynamics and macroeconomic conditions, rather than short-term volatility [6]

Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound of the Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) indicates significant capital inflow and optimism towards the nonferrous metal sector, driven by performance, industry dynamics, policy support, and macroeconomic factors [1][2]. Group 1: Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, 56 out of 60 constituent companies of the Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF reported profits, with 44 companies showing year-on-year growth in net profit [1]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The current nonferrous metal bull market is characterized as a "new productivity bull market," with demand driven by emerging sectors such as new energy, AI, and aerospace, while supply-side disruptions have intensified supply-demand conflicts, leading to higher metal prices [1]. Group 3: Policy Support - The joint issuance of the "Nonferrous Metal Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" by eight departments aims to strengthen strategic resource guarantees and promote digital upgrades in the industry [1]. - Policies aimed at optimizing industry supply structures are also in place, alongside large-scale infrastructure projects like the Yaxi Hydropower Project, which create demand for nonferrous metal raw materials [1]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to boost nonferrous metal prices [1]. - The global monetary easing cycle and the strategic importance of resources are anticipated to drive a new supply-demand balance in the nonferrous metal sector [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence in commodity markets is driven by geopolitical factors, monetary policy expectations, and market sentiment, which presents both opportunities and risks for medium to long-term investors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Oil Market - The rise in crude oil prices is primarily due to tightening sanctions against Russia by the EU and the impending U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, leading to a decrease in supply [3]. - WTI crude oil has maintained a price above $60, with traders suggesting that it is unlikely to fall below this level unless there is a significant market downturn [3]. - The potential for further price increases exists if new sanctions are announced, indicating a bullish outlook for the medium to long term [3][5]. Group 2: Industrial Metals - The decline in copper and other industrial metals is linked to changing expectations regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with investors cautious ahead of upcoming employment data [4][5]. - Industrial metals are closely tied to economic demand, and concerns about delayed rate cuts have led to increased selling pressure, despite previous supply concerns [4]. - For medium to long-term investors, focusing on metals with strong demand and supply constraints is recommended, particularly after price corrections [5]. Group 3: Gold Market - The increase in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion among investors, particularly in light of stock market volatility [4]. - Gold prices are also influenced by interest rate expectations, and while there may be short-term gains, long-term trends will depend on broader market conditions [4][5]. - It is advised to maintain a portion of gold as a hedge against risk rather than pursuing aggressive trading strategies [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors should focus on supply-demand dynamics for oil and industrial metals, particularly in light of geopolitical developments and economic recovery trends [5][6]. - Monitoring U.S. employment reports is crucial for understanding future monetary policy directions, which will impact commodity markets significantly [5][6]. - Practical investment strategies include waiting for price corrections in oil, avoiding panic selling in industrial metals, and maintaining a balanced approach to gold investments [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the energy sector, particularly focusing on renewable energy and gas power plants, while highlighting the vulnerabilities in Europe's energy supply chain [1][4][7]. Core Insights - The global electricity demand is accelerating, with a projected annual growth rate of approximately 2.6% in the U.S. by the end of this decade, driven by air conditioning, data centers, industry, and electric vehicles [1][2]. - Europe relies heavily on imports for its energy needs, with nearly 50% of its energy structure dependent on imports, particularly LNG from the U.S. and Qatar, and rare earth resources from China [1][4]. - The nuclear energy sector, while significant in the EU's energy mix at about 10%, faces supply chain risks due to the concentration of uranium supply and processing [5]. - The aging electricity grid in Europe poses a major bottleneck for meeting new electricity demands, necessitating modernization and increased green investments [6][8]. - The development of AI data centers is significantly driving energy demand, with challenges in grid expansion and a growing interest in storage solutions like fuel cells [9][10]. Summary by Sections Energy Demand and Supply - Global electricity demand grew by 4.3% last year, outpacing GDP growth, with data centers' electricity demand rising to about 2% in the EU and 6% in the U.S. [2]. - The importance of electricity supply security has increased due to the high energy consumption of AI technologies and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [3][14]. Renewable Energy and Investment Opportunities - RWE, a German utility company, is highlighted for its strong earnings potential, with 70% of its business in renewable energy and a projected annual earnings growth rate of 15% from 2025 to 2030 [16][17]. - The report emphasizes the need for significant capital investment in electrification, estimating a requirement of nearly $3 trillion to modernize infrastructure and support renewable energy [8]. Challenges in Energy Supply - Europe's dependency on LNG imports could rise to 70-80% if Russian LNG is banned, highlighting vulnerabilities in energy security [4]. - The concentration of rare earth resources in China poses additional risks, with Europe seeking to reduce this dependency through legislative measures [4]. Nuclear Energy and Supply Chain Risks - The nuclear fuel cycle's high concentration in supply sources raises concerns about potential disruptions, particularly with significant reliance on imports from Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia [5]. Infrastructure and Modernization Needs - The aging electrical grid requires modernization to accommodate new demands from electric vehicles and data centers, with a projected need for a 70% increase in green investments over the next five years [6][8]. Emerging Technologies and Companies - Companies like Prysmian are positioned to benefit from the growth in data centers, providing essential low-voltage cables for the sector [18]. - Sirius XM is noted for its solid oxide fuel cell technology, which has potential in the green hydrogen market, highlighting investment opportunities in emerging technologies [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has experienced a significant surge, with major stocks reaching their daily limit, driven by strong performance and favorable market conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the end of October, the non-ferrous metal sector has seen a cumulative increase of 75.9% year-to-date, outperforming other sectors such as telecommunications (61.88%) and electronics (48.1%) [3][4]. - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) has shown a strong intraday increase of 4.79%, with a trading volume exceeding 65 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Earnings and Industry Drivers - In the third quarter of 2025, 56 out of 60 companies in the non-ferrous metal ETF reported profits, with 44 companies showing year-on-year growth in net profit. Notably, Chujiang New Materials saw a 20-fold increase in net profit [4]. - The current bull market in non-ferrous metals is characterized as a "new productivity bull market," driven by demand from emerging sectors such as renewable energy, AI, and aerospace, alongside supply-side disruptions [4][5]. Group 3: Policy Support and Future Outlook - Eight government departments have jointly issued a plan to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, focusing on resource security and digital upgrades [5]. - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metal sector will enter a new cycle of supply-demand balance, with continued upward pressure on prices for copper and cobalt due to supply constraints [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that non-ferrous metal stocks have strengthened, with notable increases in Tianqi Lithium, Huayou Cobalt, and others, indicating a positive market trend for the sector [1] - Mining and non-ferrous related ETFs have risen approximately 4%, reflecting the overall bullish sentiment in the market [1][2] - Analysts forecast that copper and cobalt prices will continue to rise due to supply tightness, while lithium prices are expected to benefit from unexpected increases in energy storage demand [2] Group 2 - Specific ETFs such as the Mining ETF and Non-Ferrous Metal ETFs have shown significant price increases, with the Mining ETF rising by 4.14% and the Non-Ferrous Metal ETF by 3.95% [2] - The overall investment enthusiasm for non-ferrous metals and other bulk commodities is likely to persist due to loose liquidity and countries strengthening their resource acquisition efforts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing active trading, with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) showing resilience in the market, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) saw an intraday increase of 1.34% and is currently up by 0.56%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Huayu Mining (over 8%) and China Aluminum (over 5%) [1]. - Since its inception, the index tracked by the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF has increased by 181.27%, outperforming other indices like the Non-Ferrous Metal Index (164.89%) and the Industrial Non-Ferrous Index (156.47%) [2][3]. Group 2: Growth Potential - The index associated with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF is expected to show strong and sustained growth, with a projected year-on-year net profit increase of 54.5% in 2025, leading among similar indices [3]. - For 2026, the index is anticipated to maintain a leading position with a forecasted growth rate of 21.0%, indicating robust mid-term growth potential [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The next two years are projected to be critical for China's electrolytic aluminum production, with a forecasted output of approximately 4,420 million tons by 2025, nearing capacity limits [5]. - The domestic aluminum market is currently in a "fragile balance," with supply and demand remaining stable; however, any increase in demand or supply disruptions could lead to shortages [6]. Group 4: Commodity Outlook - Citic Securities anticipates that supply constraints will drive prices of copper, cobalt, and other commodities higher, while lithium prices may benefit from unexpected demand in energy storage [8]. - The investment interest in commodities is expected to continue, supported by liquidity easing and increased efforts by countries to secure key resources [8]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) and its associated funds provide a diversified investment approach across various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which helps mitigate risks compared to investing in single metal sectors [10].